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SPACS VS . IPOS
I have covered the current SPAC Mania already in a post in June on Nikola, but since then SPACs only seem to gather more steam. VC legend Bill Gurley (Banchmark Capital, Uber) has released an interesting post on the three main venues for a company to go public: A "classic" IPO, a simple listing and INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) InterActice Corp (IAC) is a company I had on my list for a long time but for whatever reason I never managed to look at them in more detail. Over the past few weeks I read in several quarterly reports of good funds that they had invested, so I decided to look at least a SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones SPIN OFF CHECK: GETINGE / ARJO AB (ISIN SE0010468116 One upfront comment: I promise to use the auto correct feature of wordpress.com in 2018 as often as possible. However, as I do not have unlimited time to "polish" my posts, there will be always bad grammar and bad spelling as I try to focus my available time on analyis and actual content. Already some VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Another week, another 10 randomly selected Swiss stocks. This time, two of them made it onto my watch list. 21. Basilea AG. Basilea AG is a 569 mn CHF “biopharma” company that UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION In many books which deal more or less explicitly with "special situation" investing, for instance Joel Greenblatt's "You can be a stock market genius" or seth Klarman's "Margin of safety", many so-called "Corporate actions" are mentioned as interesting value investing opportunities. Some of the most well know corporate actions which might yield good investment opportunities are: - Spin offs - HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE After all that heavy macro stuff, back to the nitty-gritty world of fundamental analysis. Let's have a look at Enterprise Value, which as concept is gaining more and more attention, among others famous "Screening guru" O’Shaughnessy has identified Enterprise value as the most dominant single factor in his new book. Also a lot of the SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Paul Graham on "Fierce nerds" Google is experimenting with physical stores Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone "full electrification" in their new report "Net Zero by 2050". Great story on Kongo Gumi, a 1400 year old company from Japan Gary Kasparov is once again trying his luck MOVIE REVIEW: “THE BIG SHORT” This is a clearly a first for the blog: A movie review and not a book review. I had read the book from Michael Lewis a couple of years ago and it was clearly the best of many books trying to explain the sources of the "financial crisis" 2008/2009. Honestly, I could notimagine
SPACS VS . IPOS
I have covered the current SPAC Mania already in a post in June on Nikola, but since then SPACs only seem to gather more steam. VC legend Bill Gurley (Banchmark Capital, Uber) has released an interesting post on the three main venues for a company to go public: A "classic" IPO, a simple listing and INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) InterActice Corp (IAC) is a company I had on my list for a long time but for whatever reason I never managed to look at them in more detail. Over the past few weeks I read in several quarterly reports of good funds that they had invested, so I decided to look at least a SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones SPIN OFF CHECK: GETINGE / ARJO AB (ISIN SE0010468116 One upfront comment: I promise to use the auto correct feature of wordpress.com in 2018 as often as possible. However, as I do not have unlimited time to "polish" my posts, there will be always bad grammar and bad spelling as I try to focus my available time on analyis and actual content. Already some ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 4 Another week, another 10 Swiss stocks, this time with one stock to "watch". 31. Plazza AG Plazza is a 581 mn CHF market cap real estate company that invests in and around Zurich. The company seems to trade close to NAV and as a rule I normally don't consider listed realestate as part of
THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be a little bit shorter. The reason for choosing Switzerland JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE After all that heavy macro stuff, back to the nitty-gritty world of fundamental analysis. Let's have a look at Enterprise Value, which as concept is gaining more and more attention, among others famous "Screening guru" O’Shaughnessy has identified Enterprise value as the most dominant single factor in his new book. Also a lot of the THE ENERGY TRANSITION BASKET: ARE CABLES THE NEW “SHOVELS Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!! Background: I am currently trying to build up exposure to what I expect to be a long term trend towards electrification (see the first post). As I am still learning on the way, I decided to start with a "basket" approach where IBIONTECH SE
Personally I do really like the way he communicates: very precise, understandable and no hype. Another parallel to Ganymed is that the biggest investors were the Strüngemann brothers, two German self made billionaires who created Hexal, a leading German generics company that they sold themselves for around 5,6 bn EUR to Novartis in 2002. SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners The New Yorker with a feature on the "Master of SPACs" Chamath Palihapitiya Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK An interesting article on howAmazon
ENERGY TRANSITION
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!! Background: I am currently trying to build up exposure to what I expect to be a long term trend towards electrification (see the first post).As I am still learning on the way, I decided to start with a “basket” approach where I try to build a basket of (lower weighted) potentially interesting stocks and then dive OPERATING CASH FLOW AND INTEREST EXPENSES In my recent post to Kabel Deutschland, I made the following remark: Interestingly, the “operating cashflow” does not include interest charges. In my opinion, interest charges are operating, as they have to be paid regularly and there is no discretion like dividends. So in my view Kabel Deutschland currently runs free cashflow negative anddividends
HP ENTERPRISE (HPE)
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!! Management summary: HPE, the enterprise arm of the old HP looks attractive on a sum-of-part valuation following 3 spin-offs in 2 years, my model indicates an upside of ~40% in the base case and ~70% in an optimistic case Some "soft catalysts" are VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers not to sell SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 Background: As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real "Tipping point" towards a significant increase in "Electrification" which in my opinion is HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/FCF The “classic” EV/EBITDA ratio is much better in capturing debt and net cash than the P/E. As I have explained in an earlier post, one should be careful with EV in certain cases (leases, pensions), but overall, EV is much better to compare highly leveraged companies with “conservative” companies. EBITDA, as the name says, is “ E VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers not to sell SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 Background: As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real "Tipping point" towards a significant increase in "Electrification" which in my opinion is THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/FCF The “classic” EV/EBITDA ratio is much better in capturing debt and net cash than the P/E. As I have explained in an earlier post, one should be careful with EV in certain cases (leases, pensions), but overall, EV is much better to compare highly leveraged companies with “conservative” companies. EBITDA, as the name says, is “ E JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners The New Yorker with a feature on the "Master of SPACs" Chamath Palihapitiya Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK An interesting article on howAmazon
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 4 All Swiss Shares Series Part 4 – Nr. 31 – 40. Posted on 8. June 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Another week, another 10 Swiss stocks, this time with one stock to “watch”. 31. Plazza AG. Plazza is a 581 mn CHF market cap real estate company that invests in and around Zurich. The company seems to trade close to NAV and as arule
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 2 12. Lonza Group. Lonza is a 42,3 bn CHF “large cap” chemical and pharmaceuticals Group. What makes the company interesting is the fact that over the last 10 years, the share price has risen by around 10x: In 2020, the company achieved sales of ~4,5 bn CHF with an EBITDA margin of around 31%.SPACS VS . IPOS
I have covered the current SPAC Mania already in a post in June on Nikola, but since then SPACs only seem to gather more steam. VC legend Bill Gurley (Banchmark Capital, Uber) has released an interesting post on the three main venues for a company to SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY The Brooklyn Investor with some interesting aspects from the Berkie AGM Farnam Street explains why we all need some slack The "Gig Economy" in the US may end soon A great explanation what kind of business Investment Banking actually is (Credit Suisse) The Irish Banking sector has consolidated to only two remaining players Longread
BIONTECH SE
The first company, Ganymed, that specialized in more “traditional oncology drugs, became a “Unicorn” when it was sold in 2016 to Japanese company Astellas for 1.2 bn EUR (including earn outs). It seems that the wife ran Ganymed as CEO and in parallel, Ugur founded BioNTech in 2008 to focus on more “cutting edge” technology. GRENKE AG – UPDATE: ALL CLEAR OR THE “SAME OLD SONG” AGAIN Disclosure: I have no exposure to Grenke nor do I plan to have no exposure for the foreseeable future. Grenke is a company I have written about quite often in this blog. My only investment had been the purchase of Grenke Bonds after the "Short Attack" in September 2020. I divested them relatively soon after SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I think this is already a pretty OPERATING CASH FLOW AND INTEREST EXPENSES In my recent post to Kabel Deutschland, I made the following remark: Interestingly, the “operating cashflow” does not include interest charges. In my opinion, interest charges are operating, as they have to be paid regularly and there is no discretion like dividends. So in my view Kabel Deutschland currently runs free cashflow negative anddividends
VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers not to sell SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 Background: As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real "Tipping point" towards a significant increase in "Electrification" which in my opinion is HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/FCF The “classic” EV/EBITDA ratio is much better in capturing debt and net cash than the P/E. As I have explained in an earlier post, one should be careful with EV in certain cases (leases, pensions), but overall, EV is much better to compare highly leveraged companies with “conservative” companies. EBITDA, as the name says, is “ E VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers not to sell SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 Background: As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real "Tipping point" towards a significant increase in "Electrification" which in my opinion is HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/FCF The “classic” EV/EBITDA ratio is much better in capturing debt and net cash than the P/E. As I have explained in an earlier post, one should be careful with EV in certain cases (leases, pensions), but overall, EV is much better to compare highly leveraged companies with “conservative” companies. EBITDA, as the name says, is “ E JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners The New Yorker with a feature on the "Master of SPACs" Chamath Palihapitiya Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK An interesting article on howAmazon
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 4 All Swiss Shares Series Part 4 – Nr. 31 – 40. Posted on 8. June 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Another week, another 10 Swiss stocks, this time with one stock to “watch”. 31. Plazza AG. Plazza is a 581 mn CHF market cap real estate company that invests in and around Zurich. The company seems to trade close to NAV and as arule
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 2 12. Lonza Group. Lonza is a 42,3 bn CHF “large cap” chemical and pharmaceuticals Group. What makes the company interesting is the fact that over the last 10 years, the share price has risen by around 10x: In 2020, the company achieved sales of ~4,5 bn CHF with an EBITDA margin of around 31%.SPACS VS . IPOS
I have covered the current SPAC Mania already in a post in June on Nikola, but since then SPACs only seem to gather more steam. VC legend Bill Gurley (Banchmark Capital, Uber) has released an interesting post on the three main venues for a company to SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY The Brooklyn Investor with some interesting aspects from the Berkie AGM Farnam Street explains why we all need some slack The "Gig Economy" in the US may end soon A great explanation what kind of business Investment Banking actually is (Credit Suisse) The Irish Banking sector has consolidated to only two remaining players Longread
BIONTECH SE
The first company, Ganymed, that specialized in more “traditional oncology drugs, became a “Unicorn” when it was sold in 2016 to Japanese company Astellas for 1.2 bn EUR (including earn outs). It seems that the wife ran Ganymed as CEO and in parallel, Ugur founded BioNTech in 2008 to focus on more “cutting edge” technology. GRENKE AG – UPDATE: ALL CLEAR OR THE “SAME OLD SONG” AGAIN Disclosure: I have no exposure to Grenke nor do I plan to have no exposure for the foreseeable future. Grenke is a company I have written about quite often in this blog. My only investment had been the purchase of Grenke Bonds after the "Short Attack" in September 2020. I divested them relatively soon after SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I think this is already a pretty OPERATING CASH FLOW AND INTEREST EXPENSES In my recent post to Kabel Deutschland, I made the following remark: Interestingly, the “operating cashflow” does not include interest charges. In my opinion, interest charges are operating, as they have to be paid regularly and there is no discretion like dividends. So in my view Kabel Deutschland currently runs free cashflow negative anddividends
VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers not to sell SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 Background: As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real "Tipping point" towards a significant increase in "Electrification" which in my opinion is HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/FCF The “classic” EV/EBITDA ratio is much better in capturing debt and net cash than the P/E. As I have explained in an earlier post, one should be careful with EV in certain cases (leases, pensions), but overall, EV is much better to compare highly leveraged companies with “conservative” companies. EBITDA, as the name says, is “ E VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers not to sell SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 Background: As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real "Tipping point" towards a significant increase in "Electrification" which in my opinion is HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/FCF The “classic” EV/EBITDA ratio is much better in capturing debt and net cash than the P/E. As I have explained in an earlier post, one should be careful with EV in certain cases (leases, pensions), but overall, EV is much better to compare highly leveraged companies with “conservative” companies. EBITDA, as the name says, is “ E JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK. An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners The New Yorker with a feature on the "Master of SPACs" Chamath Palihapitiya Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UK An interesting article on howAmazon
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 4 All Swiss Shares Series Part 4 – Nr. 31 – 40. Posted on 8. June 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Another week, another 10 Swiss stocks, this time with one stock to “watch”. 31. Plazza AG. Plazza is a 581 mn CHF market cap real estate company that invests in and around Zurich. The company seems to trade close to NAV and as arule
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 2 12. Lonza Group. Lonza is a 42,3 bn CHF “large cap” chemical and pharmaceuticals Group. What makes the company interesting is the fact that over the last 10 years, the share price has risen by around 10x: In 2020, the company achieved sales of ~4,5 bn CHF with an EBITDA margin of around 31%.SPACS VS . IPOS
I have covered the current SPAC Mania already in a post in June on Nikola, but since then SPACs only seem to gather more steam. VC legend Bill Gurley (Banchmark Capital, Uber) has released an interesting post on the three main venues for a company to SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY The Brooklyn Investor with some interesting aspects from the Berkie AGM Farnam Street explains why we all need some slack The "Gig Economy" in the US may end soon A great explanation what kind of business Investment Banking actually is (Credit Suisse) The Irish Banking sector has consolidated to only two remaining players Longread
BIONTECH SE
The first company, Ganymed, that specialized in more “traditional oncology drugs, became a “Unicorn” when it was sold in 2016 to Japanese company Astellas for 1.2 bn EUR (including earn outs). It seems that the wife ran Ganymed as CEO and in parallel, Ugur founded BioNTech in 2008 to focus on more “cutting edge” technology. GRENKE AG – UPDATE: ALL CLEAR OR THE “SAME OLD SONG” AGAIN Disclosure: I have no exposure to Grenke nor do I plan to have no exposure for the foreseeable future. Grenke is a company I have written about quite often in this blog. My only investment had been the purchase of Grenke Bonds after the "Short Attack" in September 2020. I divested them relatively soon after SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I think this is already a pretty OPERATING CASH FLOW AND INTEREST EXPENSES In my recent post to Kabel Deutschland, I made the following remark: Interestingly, the “operating cashflow” does not include interest charges. In my opinion, interest charges are operating, as they have to be paid regularly and there is no discretion like dividends. So in my view Kabel Deutschland currently runs free cashflow negative anddividends
VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
KOC HOLDING
The Koc family directly and indirectly controls ~78% of the shares, leaving a free float of only 22%. The company looks relatively cheap, but we should not forget that interest rates in Turkey are at around 10% (at 8,10 TRY per share): P/E 7,7. P/B 1.1. UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I MOVIE REVIEW: “THE BIG SHORT” This is a clearly a first for the blog: A movie review and not a book review. I had read the book from Michael Lewis a couple of years ago and it was clearly the best of many books trying to explain the sources of the "financial crisis" 2008/2009. Honestly, I could notimagine
HP ENTERPRISE (HPE)
HPE, the enterprise arm of the old HP looks attractive on a sum-of-part valuation. following 3 spin-offs in 2 years, my model indicates an upside of ~40% in the base case and ~70% in an optimistic case. Some “soft catalysts” are on the horizon such as the upcoming Software “spin -off merger”, further share buy backs anda “normal
VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
KOC HOLDING
The Koc family directly and indirectly controls ~78% of the shares, leaving a free float of only 22%. The company looks relatively cheap, but we should not forget that interest rates in Turkey are at around 10% (at 8,10 TRY per share): P/E 7,7. P/B 1.1. UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I MOVIE REVIEW: “THE BIG SHORT” This is a clearly a first for the blog: A movie review and not a book review. I had read the book from Michael Lewis a couple of years ago and it was clearly the best of many books trying to explain the sources of the "financial crisis" 2008/2009. Honestly, I could notimagine
HP ENTERPRISE (HPE)
HPE, the enterprise arm of the old HP looks attractive on a sum-of-part valuation. following 3 spin-offs in 2 years, my model indicates an upside of ~40% in the base case and ~70% in an optimistic case. Some “soft catalysts” are on the horizon such as the upcoming Software “spin -off merger”, further share buy backs anda “normal
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 4 13 hours ago · Another week, another 10 Swiss stocks, this time with one stock to "watch". 31. Plazza AG Plazza is a 581 mn CHF market cap real estate company that invests in and around Zurich. The company seems to trade close to NAV and as a rule I normally don't consider listed real estate as part of JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 1 post published by memyselfandi007 during June 2021. Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UKSTRANGE STOCKS
Results: Based on a current value of 4.525 EUR per share, my estimated cashflows represent an IRR of 8.2% p.a. On a discounted basis, we get a fair value range of 6.87 EUR to 8.23 EUR per share, so quite a nice upside to the current share price but lower than the author determinedin his analysis.
THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 Background: As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real "Tipping point" towards a significant increase in "Electrification" which in my opinion isSPACS VS . IPOS
I have covered the current SPAC Mania already in a post in June on Nikola, but since then SPACs only seem to gather more steam. VC legend Bill Gurley (Banchmark Capital, Uber) has released an interesting post on the three main venues for a company to TEKMAR PLC – HIDDEN “OFF-SHORE” CHAMPION OR CHEAP FOR A Introduction: At a very first glance, Tekmar Plc, a AIM listed UK company looks like a very interesting “hidden Champion”: The company is active in a very attractive market: their main business is to provide sub sea protection systems for cables with its biggest entity providing this service to the fast growing off-shore wind farm market.. In addition, Tekmar claims to have 75% market GRENKE LEASING SHORT ATTACK Background: Long time readers of my blog know that I covered Grenke a while back and unfortunately invested instead in what I thought was the “Australian Grenke” with a pretty bad outcome.. Now Viceroy Research came out with a blazing short attack on Grenke.Viceroy seems to be the same guy that released the now famous “Zatarra Report” on Wirecard in 2016. SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones GRENKE FOLLOW UP: RECAP & FUNDAMENTALS (AND WHY GRENKE IS Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and never believe anything from anonymous bloggers !!!! A first a quick quick recap on what happened since the last post. Friday's written statement from Grenke pre press/analyst was actually pretty lame. I think they made clear that the money laundering and Ponziissue
BOOK REVIEW: LES SCHWAB PRIDE IN PERFORMANCE: KEEP IT The book is a mixture of Autobiography, short stories and lots and lots of business wisdom. The story of Les Schwab is to a certain point very similar with Sam Walton (Walmart). A no BS guy starts with a small shop in a rural area in the US and then branches out all over the country. However, the biggest difference with Wal Mart is the fact VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
KOC HOLDING
The Koc family directly and indirectly controls ~78% of the shares, leaving a free float of only 22%. The company looks relatively cheap, but we should not forget that interest rates in Turkey are at around 10% (at 8,10 TRY per share): P/E 7,7. P/B 1.1. UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I MOVIE REVIEW: “THE BIG SHORT” This is a clearly a first for the blog: A movie review and not a book review. I had read the book from Michael Lewis a couple of years ago and it was clearly the best of many books trying to explain the sources of the "financial crisis" 2008/2009. Honestly, I could notimagine
HP ENTERPRISE (HPE)
HPE, the enterprise arm of the old HP looks attractive on a sum-of-part valuation. following 3 spin-offs in 2 years, my model indicates an upside of ~40% in the base case and ~70% in an optimistic case. Some “soft catalysts” are on the horizon such as the upcoming Software “spin -off merger”, further share buy backs anda “normal
VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
KOC HOLDING
The Koc family directly and indirectly controls ~78% of the shares, leaving a free float of only 22%. The company looks relatively cheap, but we should not forget that interest rates in Turkey are at around 10% (at 8,10 TRY per share): P/E 7,7. P/B 1.1. UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I MOVIE REVIEW: “THE BIG SHORT” This is a clearly a first for the blog: A movie review and not a book review. I had read the book from Michael Lewis a couple of years ago and it was clearly the best of many books trying to explain the sources of the "financial crisis" 2008/2009. Honestly, I could notimagine
HP ENTERPRISE (HPE)
HPE, the enterprise arm of the old HP looks attractive on a sum-of-part valuation. following 3 spin-offs in 2 years, my model indicates an upside of ~40% in the base case and ~70% in an optimistic case. Some “soft catalysts” are on the horizon such as the upcoming Software “spin -off merger”, further share buy backs anda “normal
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 4 10 hours ago · Another week, another 10 Swiss stocks, this time with one stock to "watch". 31. Plazza AG Plazza is a 581 mn CHF market cap real estate company that invests in and around Zurich. The company seems to trade close to NAV and as a rule I normally don't consider listed real estate as part of JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 1 post published by memyselfandi007 during June 2021. Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UKSTRANGE STOCKS
Results: Based on a current value of 4.525 EUR per share, my estimated cashflows represent an IRR of 8.2% p.a. On a discounted basis, we get a fair value range of 6.87 EUR to 8.23 EUR per share, so quite a nice upside to the current share price but lower than the author determinedin his analysis.
THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 Background: As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real "Tipping point" towards a significant increase in "Electrification" which in my opinion isSPACS VS . IPOS
I have covered the current SPAC Mania already in a post in June on Nikola, but since then SPACs only seem to gather more steam. VC legend Bill Gurley (Banchmark Capital, Uber) has released an interesting post on the three main venues for a company to TEKMAR PLC – HIDDEN “OFF-SHORE” CHAMPION OR CHEAP FOR A Introduction: At a very first glance, Tekmar Plc, a AIM listed UK company looks like a very interesting “hidden Champion”: The company is active in a very attractive market: their main business is to provide sub sea protection systems for cables with its biggest entity providing this service to the fast growing off-shore wind farm market.. In addition, Tekmar claims to have 75% market GRENKE LEASING SHORT ATTACK Background: Long time readers of my blog know that I covered Grenke a while back and unfortunately invested instead in what I thought was the “Australian Grenke” with a pretty bad outcome.. Now Viceroy Research came out with a blazing short attack on Grenke.Viceroy seems to be the same guy that released the now famous “Zatarra Report” on Wirecard in 2016. SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones GRENKE FOLLOW UP: RECAP & FUNDAMENTALS (AND WHY GRENKE IS Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and never believe anything from anonymous bloggers !!!! A first a quick quick recap on what happened since the last post. Friday's written statement from Grenke pre press/analyst was actually pretty lame. I think they made clear that the money laundering and Ponziissue
BOOK REVIEW: LES SCHWAB PRIDE IN PERFORMANCE: KEEP IT The book is a mixture of Autobiography, short stories and lots and lots of business wisdom. The story of Les Schwab is to a certain point very similar with Sam Walton (Walmart). A no BS guy starts with a small shop in a rural area in the US and then branches out all over the country. However, the biggest difference with Wal Mart is the fact VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
KOC HOLDING
The Koc family directly and indirectly controls ~78% of the shares, leaving a free float of only 22%. The company looks relatively cheap, but we should not forget that interest rates in Turkey are at around 10% (at 8,10 TRY per share): P/E 7,7. P/B 1.1. UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I MOVIE REVIEW: “THE BIG SHORT” This is a clearly a first for the blog: A movie review and not a book review. I had read the book from Michael Lewis a couple of years ago and it was clearly the best of many books trying to explain the sources of the "financial crisis" 2008/2009. Honestly, I could notimagine
HP ENTERPRISE (HPE)
HPE, the enterprise arm of the old HP looks attractive on a sum-of-part valuation. following 3 spin-offs in 2 years, my model indicates an upside of ~40% in the base case and ~70% in an optimistic case. Some “soft catalysts” are on the horizon such as the upcoming Software “spin -off merger”, further share buy backs anda “normal
VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 11. Varia US Proporties. Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. SOME LINKS | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY Some Links. Posted on 23. May 2021 by memyselfandi007 Leave a comment. Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds”. Google is experimenting with physical stores. Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann. In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a HOW TO CORRECTLY CALCULATE ENTERPRISE VALUE A measure of a company’s value, often used as an alternative to straightforward market capitalization. Enterprise value is calculated as market cap plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Investopedia also offers an THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 Introduction After the great fun of doing the "All German shares" Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new "All Swiss Shares" series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be alittle bit
INTERACTIVE CORP (IAC) For IAC, corporate overhead is quite volatile, somewhere between 40-80 mn USD a quarter. For valuation purposes, I will use 45 mn USD per quarter or 180 mn USD annually. As a very simple assumption, I will simply deduct 5x annual overhead from the SOTP valuation, which equates 900 mn USD. According to my numbers, the “discount” isactually
KOC HOLDING
The Koc family directly and indirectly controls ~78% of the shares, leaving a free float of only 22%. The company looks relatively cheap, but we should not forget that interest rates in Turkey are at around 10% (at 8,10 TRY per share): P/E 7,7. P/B 1.1. UNDERRATED SPECIAL SITUATION A rights issue is an issue of rights to buy additional securities in a company made to the company’s existing security holders. When the rights are for equity securities, such as shares, in a public company, it is a way to raise capital under a seasoned equity offering. Rightsissues are
SOME THOUGHTS ON AVERAGING DOWN & AVERAGING UP John Hempton has a very interesting post on when to average down into a stock. As a summary, one should not average down into a stock if a company has a lot of financial leverage a company has significant operating leverage the company is in danger of becoming obsolete I MOVIE REVIEW: “THE BIG SHORT” This is a clearly a first for the blog: A movie review and not a book review. I had read the book from Michael Lewis a couple of years ago and it was clearly the best of many books trying to explain the sources of the "financial crisis" 2008/2009. Honestly, I could notimagine
HP ENTERPRISE (HPE)
HPE, the enterprise arm of the old HP looks attractive on a sum-of-part valuation. following 3 spin-offs in 2 years, my model indicates an upside of ~40% in the base case and ~70% in an optimistic case. Some “soft catalysts” are on the horizon such as the upcoming Software “spin -off merger”, further share buy backs anda “normal
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 4 6 hours ago · Another week, another 10 Swiss stocks, this time with one stock to "watch". 31. Plazza AG Plazza is a 581 mn CHF market cap real estate company that invests in and around Zurich. The company seems to trade close to NAV and as a rule I normally don't consider listed real estate as part of JUNE | 2021 | VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY 1 post published by memyselfandi007 during June 2021. Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners. The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” Chamath Palihapitiya. Nine (strong) arguments for ESG Investing. Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options. The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers for the UKSTRANGE STOCKS
Results: Based on a current value of 4.525 EUR per share, my estimated cashflows represent an IRR of 8.2% p.a. On a discounted basis, we get a fair value range of 6.87 EUR to 8.23 EUR per share, so quite a nice upside to the current share price but lower than the author determinedin his analysis.
THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 Background: As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that we might have reached a real "Tipping point" towards a significant increase in "Electrification" which in my opinion isSPACS VS . IPOS
I have covered the current SPAC Mania already in a post in June on Nikola, but since then SPACs only seem to gather more steam. VC legend Bill Gurley (Banchmark Capital, Uber) has released an interesting post on the three main venues for a company to TEKMAR PLC – HIDDEN “OFF-SHORE” CHAMPION OR CHEAP FOR A Introduction: At a very first glance, Tekmar Plc, a AIM listed UK company looks like a very interesting “hidden Champion”: The company is active in a very attractive market: their main business is to provide sub sea protection systems for cables with its biggest entity providing this service to the fast growing off-shore wind farm market.. In addition, Tekmar claims to have 75% market GRENKE LEASING SHORT ATTACK Background: Long time readers of my blog know that I covered Grenke a while back and unfortunately invested instead in what I thought was the “Australian Grenke” with a pretty bad outcome.. Now Viceroy Research came out with a blazing short attack on Grenke.Viceroy seems to be the same guy that released the now famous “Zatarra Report” on Wirecard in 2016. SIEMENS ENERGY AG SPIN-OFF Disclaimer: This is not investment advice !!! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. At first a big "health warning": My track record with Spin-offs is awful although I dedicated significant efforts into this area. Over the last years, I missed out on several good ones (Uniper, Trisura, Osram) and I unfortunately invested in a few bad ones GRENKE FOLLOW UP: RECAP & FUNDAMENTALS (AND WHY GRENKE IS Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Please do your own research and never believe anything from anonymous bloggers !!!! A first a quick quick recap on what happened since the last post. Friday's written statement from Grenke pre press/analyst was actually pretty lame. I think they made clear that the money laundering and Ponziissue
BOOK REVIEW: LES SCHWAB PRIDE IN PERFORMANCE: KEEP IT The book is a mixture of Autobiography, short stories and lots and lots of business wisdom. The story of Les Schwab is to a certain point very similar with Sam Walton (Walmart). A no BS guy starts with a small shop in a rural area in the US and then branches out all over the country. However, the biggest difference with Wal Mart is the fact VALUE AND OPPORTUNITY SLOW INVESTING, SPECIAL SITUATIONS & OCCASIONALLY WILD PUNTSMENU
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Posted on 6. June 2021by
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Interesting feature on David Rolfe from Wedgewood Partners The New Yorker with a feature on the “Master of SPACs” ChamathPalihapitiya
Nine (strong) argumentsfor ESG Investing
Restaurants in the US are scaling back delivery options The Pro-Brexit CEO of JD Wetherspoon wants more migrant workers forthe UK
An interesting article on how Amazon forces market place sellers not to sell cheaper elsewhere Good interview by Good Investing with the two founders of WormCapital
* What we read
ALL SWISS SHARES PART 3 – NR. 21-30 Posted on 31. May 2021by memyselfandi007
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Another week, another 10 randomly selected Swiss stocks. This time, two of them made it onto my watch list.21. BASILEA AG
Basilea AG is a 569 mn CHF “biopharma” company that was spun off in 2000 from Roche. Other than for instance Actelion, Basilea doesn’t seem to be a big success when looking at the share price:Read more
* Anlage Philosophie* Bilanzanalyse
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Posted on 30. May 2021by
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Marc Rubinstein with his Adventures in Cryptoland Recommended: A surprisingly good (German) Reddit forum on Investing and stockanalysis
Prof. Damodaran with a very comprehensive post on inflation and potential impacts on asset prices. Morgan Housel explains why real long term thinking is hard A good collection of Spin-off related links A great “Post mortem” analysis of an investment (Viacom) with important conclusions Very good examples on company growth that does not create value* What we read
ALL SWISS SHARES SERIES PART 2 – NR. 11-20 Posted on 25. May 2021by memyselfandi007
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And the next batch of randomly chosen Swiss stocks, however this time I only identified ONE POTENTIAL “WATCH LIST” candidate. I do have to say that I enjoy this kind of research a lot. After looking now at 20 stocks so far I have to say that reporting quality is generally a lot better than for German companies, independent from the size of the company. 11. VARIA US PROPORTIES Varia is a listed property company that only invests in US real estate with a market cap of ~380 mn CHF. They seem to own a diversified portfolio of resdidential units. The company seems to be a “yield vehicle”, with relatively large distributions but little increase in NAV. As I am not a fan of listed real estate in any case, I’ll“PASS”.
12. LONZA GROUP
Lonza is a 42,3 bn CHF “large cap” chemical and pharmaceuticals Group. What makes the company interesting is the fact that over the last 10 years, the share price has risen by around 10x:Read more
* Anlage Philosophie* Bilanzanalyse
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Posted on 23. May 2021by
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Paul Graham on “Fierce nerds” Google is experimenting with physical stores Very interesting interview with Daniel Kahnemann In a surprising U-turn, the IEA has gone “full electrification” in their new report “Net Zero by 2050”. Great story on Kongo Gumi, a 1400 year old company from Japan Gary Kasparov is once again trying his luck in Online Chess Podcasts might still have a long runway for growth* What we read
TEKMAR PLC – HIDDEN “OFF-SHORE” CHAMPION OR CHEAP FOR AREASON ?
Posted on 17. May 2021by memyselfandi007
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INTRODUCTION:
At a very first glance, Tekmar Plc, a AIM listed UK company looks like a very interesting “hidden Champion”: The company is active in a very attractive market: their main business is to provide sub sea protection systems for cables with its biggest entity providing THIS SERVICE TO THE FAST GROWING OFF-SHORE WIND FARMMARKET.
In addition, Tekmar claims to have 75% market share. the combination of a company providing an essential, relatively small ticket item to a large installation with a dominating market share makes many investors water their mouths I guess. Even more mouthwatering looks their chart from the 2020 annual report(from August 2020):
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Posted on 16. May 2021by
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An excellent write-up about Thomson Reuters and why it could be really interesting The always excellent Matthew Ball on how a Entertainment Company should look like these days The case for an extended bull run for “Value Stocks” Interesting perspective: Crypto as “in-game currency” in the “Great Online Game” FtAlphaville on the what is going on at Carson Block target Solution 30
If the US wants to increase its share in renewable power, the electrical grid requires a massive upgrade The LT3000 blog on inflation and other things* What we read
THE NEW “ENERGY TRANSITION” BASKET PART 1 – (SIEMENS ENERGY, ORSTED, AKER HORIZON) Posted on 10. May 2021by memyselfandi007
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BACKGROUND:
As some of my readers might have noticed, I have been looking deeper into the topic of renewable energy and connected topics such as Climate change, Net Zero targets etc. My current conclusion is that WE MIGHT HAVE REACHED A REAL “TIPPING POINT” TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN “ELECTRIFICATION” which in my opinion is driven by a confluence of several factors: * The cost of renewable energy (esp. Solar) has been dropping by -90% over the last 10 years and is still dropping further. Solar is (c.p.) now the cheapest available resource of electricity on theplanet
* Battery technology is making leaps and prices are dropping as well quickly, very similar to solar energy * A few major electric appliances are already better or almost equal compared to fossil alternatives (Electric heat pumps already now, EVs in very short time, DRI & Electric arc furnaces for steel, Greenammonia etc.)
* Money is flowing into the sector like never before, driven by ESGconsiderations
* Governments are pushing into the same direction. Europe so far has been leading, but under Biden the US is pushing hard * interest rates are low which makes creating new infrastructure cheaper than never before There remain a lot of challenges, especially the “intermittency” of renewable energy and the current lack of solutions for longer term storage. However, especially in the battery space there is significant progress made. Plus, all the billions now flowing into “Green tech” will create a “Cambrian explosion” of new technologies ina few years time.
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Posted on 10. May 2021by
memyselfandi007
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The Brooklyn Investor with some interesting aspects from the BerkieAGM
Farnam Street explains why we all need some slack The “Gig Economy” in the US may end soon A great explanation what kind of business Investment Banking actuallyis
(Credit Suisse)
The Irish Banking sector has consolidated to only two remainingplayers
Long read feature on Cal Newport and Digital Minimalism The Carbon Credit market seems to be in need of an overhaul* What we read
THE “ALL SWISS SHARES” SERIES PART 1 – NR. 1-10 Posted on 5. May 2021by memyselfandi007
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INTRODUCTION
After the great fun of doing the “All German shares” Series in 2019/2020, It is time to start the new “All Swiss Shares” series in 2021. According to the Swiss Stock Exchange, there are currently 220 Swiss based listed companies, so the series will be a little bit shorter. The reason for choosing Switzerland is that I actually own already two Swiss based companies (Richemont, Zur Rose) and that I think there is an interesting mixture of companies in Switzerland, several of which I have covered over the last 10 years. Again, mostly for my own entertainment, I will use a random approach in looking at the companies. One difference to the German series is that I’ll try to better define what I am looking for. In principle, my portfolio comprises three different styles/buckets: * “LONG TERM HOLDINGS” – Stocks where I think there is good long term potential. For this group, I require high quality with regard to the business model, leadership and balance sheet * “VALUE TRADES” – Stocks where I think for some specific reasons there is a significant undervaluation that will materialize in a period of up to 3 years. This could be a “sum-of-part” situation, a spin-off, activist involvement or another situation where I think that I can identify the reason for the undervaluation and where I have a different view. Due to the shorter time horizon, the requirements for “quality” are a little bit lower. * “SPECIAL SITUATIONS” – in my definition, special situations are based on corporate actions (M&A, Squeeze out etc.) where the potential outcomes are clear and the main task is to assess probabilities and an expected value. So now let’s jump into the first 10 stocks. Surprisingly, I found already 4 stocks worth “watching” out of the first batch.* BVZ HOLDING AG
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