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ANALYSIS
trading, investing, stock market, MetaStock, indicators, timing methods, models, systems, technical analysis, money management, Dow Theory, and W. D. Gann Angles GANN ANGLES, TIME AND PRICE ANALYSIS, BASIC EXPLANATION, W Gann Angles, Time and Price Analysis, Basic Explanation, W. D. Gann, Geometric Angles, 45 degree, 1 X 1, square, circle, spiral, master calculator, ratios, mechanical METASTOCK DISCOUNT PRICE OFFER POWERFUL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MetaStock Discount Price Offer Powerful Technical Analysis Software, chart, signal, system back-test indicators, tools, optimize past fine-tune parameter set walk-forward simulation scan find rank criteria Expert Alerts Commentary guidance monitoring securitiesreal-time live-data
LATEST EDITION, COMPLETELY REVISED ENCYCLOPEDIA OF Completely revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, by Robert W. Colby, CMT, featuring the best, top-performing market timing methods, models, trading systems, technical analysis, and indicators for trading and investing MONEY MANAGEMENT RULES TRADING INVESTING TIME-TESTED Money Management Rules Trading Investing Time-Tested Survival, Long Run, Preserve Capital Conservation, trends Bull Bear Market long short Actual Stops trader gain profit, cut loss, positions, Bet Size, Diversification, Reward/Risk Ratio, revenge trading, accumulate,maximize minimize
DOW THEORY, INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE, TECHNICAL Technical Market Indicators: Dow Theory The following is an excerpt from my 820-page research book, Colby, Robert W., The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill Publishing, 2003 (click here for a description). COMPARABLY MEASURED TECHNICAL MARKET INDICATORS, RANKED BY Comparably Measured Technical Market Indicators, Ranked by Annual Relative Advantage, Trading stocks, market timing COMPARABLY MEASURED TECHNICAL MARKET INDICATORS, PROFIT It is calculated in 4 steps. Step 1: Sum the Open Position Value plus the Amount of Winning Trades plus the Amount of Losing Trades. Step 2: Sum the Open Position Value plus the Amount of Winning Trades. Step 3: Divide the sum from Step 2 by the sum from Step HOW TO BECOME A TOP TRADER, TRADING STOCKS, MARKET TIMING Net Leverage = 75% * (100% - 60%) = .075 * 0.40 = 30%. Again using industry standard (and quite reasonable) rules of thumb, if we wish to keep net leverage at 30% while holding 60% of our capital in reserve, we can put up 25% margin for each contract, and EMA REPORT FREE PREVIEW BEST TOP-PERFORMING MARKET TIMING EMA report FREE PREVIEW best top-performing market timing method model indicator trading system test technical analysis investing stock securities signal back-test tool optimize fine-tune walk-forward simulation scan find rank criteria Expert guidance, how to TRADING, INVESTING, STOCK MARKET, METASTOCK, INDICATORSGANN ANGLES ANALYSISMETASTOCK PC SOFTWARE FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSISDOW THEORYANALYSIS
trading, investing, stock market, MetaStock, indicators, timing methods, models, systems, technical analysis, money management, Dow Theory, and W. D. Gann Angles GANN ANGLES, TIME AND PRICE ANALYSIS, BASIC EXPLANATION, W Gann Angles, Time and Price Analysis, Basic Explanation, W. D. Gann, Geometric Angles, 45 degree, 1 X 1, square, circle, spiral, master calculator, ratios, mechanical METASTOCK DISCOUNT PRICE OFFER POWERFUL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MetaStock Discount Price Offer Powerful Technical Analysis Software, chart, signal, system back-test indicators, tools, optimize past fine-tune parameter set walk-forward simulation scan find rank criteria Expert Alerts Commentary guidance monitoring securitiesreal-time live-data
LATEST EDITION, COMPLETELY REVISED ENCYCLOPEDIA OF Completely revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, by Robert W. Colby, CMT, featuring the best, top-performing market timing methods, models, trading systems, technical analysis, and indicators for trading and investing MONEY MANAGEMENT RULES TRADING INVESTING TIME-TESTED Money Management Rules Trading Investing Time-Tested Survival, Long Run, Preserve Capital Conservation, trends Bull Bear Market long short Actual Stops trader gain profit, cut loss, positions, Bet Size, Diversification, Reward/Risk Ratio, revenge trading, accumulate,maximize minimize
DOW THEORY, INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE, TECHNICAL Technical Market Indicators: Dow Theory The following is an excerpt from my 820-page research book, Colby, Robert W., The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill Publishing, 2003 (click here for a description). COMPARABLY MEASURED TECHNICAL MARKET INDICATORS, RANKED BY Comparably Measured Technical Market Indicators, Ranked by Annual Relative Advantage, Trading stocks, market timing COMPARABLY MEASURED TECHNICAL MARKET INDICATORS, PROFIT It is calculated in 4 steps. Step 1: Sum the Open Position Value plus the Amount of Winning Trades plus the Amount of Losing Trades. Step 2: Sum the Open Position Value plus the Amount of Winning Trades. Step 3: Divide the sum from Step 2 by the sum from Step HOW TO BECOME A TOP TRADER, TRADING STOCKS, MARKET TIMING Net Leverage = 75% * (100% - 60%) = .075 * 0.40 = 30%. Again using industry standard (and quite reasonable) rules of thumb, if we wish to keep net leverage at 30% while holding 60% of our capital in reserve, we can put up 25% margin for each contract, and EMA REPORT FREE PREVIEW BEST TOP-PERFORMING MARKET TIMING EMA report FREE PREVIEW best top-performing market timing method model indicator trading system test technical analysis investing stock securities signal back-test tool optimize fine-tune walk-forward simulation scan find rank criteria Expert guidance, how to HOW TO BECOME A TOP TRADER, TRADING STOCKS, MARKET TIMING Net Leverage = 75% * (100% - 60%) = .075 * 0.40 = 30%. Again using industry standard (and quite reasonable) rules of thumb, if we wish to keep net leverage at 30% while holding 60% of our capital in reserve, we can put up 25% margin for each contract, and HTML DOCUMENT FOR THE WORLD WIDE WEB SPY@ 3 MARGINS (SPY@3MARGINS) Data for 02/06/04 . Exp Trend: N/A: SPY@3MARGINS: Open: 5,740,364: High: 13,317: Low: 448.0: Close: 114.4:Volume
INDEX012004
free, technical analysis, best-performing, top, trading systems, investing, market-timing methods, stock market, money management, newsupdates
YIELD CURVE MODEL
Yield Curve Model W.D. Gann, Technical Analysis, Stock Market Timing, Money Managers, Investing, Business, free news update ROBERT W. COLBY, CMT Robert W. Colby, CMT Technical Market Indicators: Robert W. Colby, CMT Bio Robert W. Colby, CMT, is the Chairman and Founder of Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. technical analysis, trading systems, investing, market-timing methods, stock market, money management_ __WWW.ROBERTWCOLBY.COM_ Technical Market Indicators Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinionPage Links:
_ MARCH 13, 2020 _ _ _ ___ Stock Market: KEEP CALM AND BE SAFE. _ _ PREVIEW FROM MY WEEKLY REPORT*_ Our asset management clients have made significantly positive absolute and relative returns while taking much less risk. We offer complete transparency, anytime access to your funds, and low fees. You keep control over your money. See: _ COLBYASSETMANAGEMENT.COM_ The coronavirus pandemic 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading extremely fast, with the number of new infections doubling about every 3 days in someregions.
Government initiatives, including monetary and fiscal stimulus, are necessary and welcome, but they are limited in their ability to contain the pandemic. Medical resources are inadequate for a pandemic of this scale. Experts say social distancing and careful hygiene appear to be ourbest options.
Global markets are in disarray, with panic and extreme fear evident. Of our 37 ETF major market leaders, the only ones that remain systematically bullish are U.S. Treasury bond (TLT) and U.S. Treasury notes (IEF). U.S. Treasury bonds and notes are safe havens that investors switch into when they become fearful. Even these safest of all investment instruments showed clear signs of financial stress last week, but that may prove to be a temporary dislocation caused by general panic and a forced scramble for liquidity (such as the need to raise cash to meet margin calls). Sentiment remains extremely bearish. Such extreme pessimism can make the stock market vulnerable to violent short-covering rallies, which can be further enhanced by algorithmic, machine buying, as seen on Friday 3/13/2002. We have to be cautious about attempting to use The Art Contrary Thinking, however, because fearful markets are erratic, and sentiment is a background factor that is not always useful for precise trade timing. Sentiment extremes are often early, and price momentum can sustain a trend in motion beyond sentiment extremes. Sentiment follows price trends and can remain at extremes for a longtime.
Net New Lows on the NYSE exceeded 2400 on 3/12/2020, its weakest and most extreme level since the financial crisis of 2008. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to dampen economic activity substantially going forward from here. Gold (GLD) broke down below its YTD 2020 lows. GLD is now systematically neutral, below its 50-day SMA, above 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. GLD appears to be failing to attract safe-haven money flows amid a scramble for liquidity. Gold Miners (GDX) completely collapsed to its lowest price in 4 years. GDX is now systematically neutral and continues to underperform GLD. Silver (SLV) collapsed to its lowest price in 8 months. SLV is systematically neutral, below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. SLV is more of an industrial metal, and SLV has failed to attract safe-haven moneyflows.
Copper (JJCTF) remains systematically bearish, with price below both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 below the 200. The price of Copper is sensitive to prospects for global economic growth, which investors fear may be dampened by the spread of coronavirus. Oil (USO) price plunged further below its previous all-time low at 7.67 set on 2/11/2016. USO remains systematically bearish. $VIX Volatility Index soared to an extremely oversold level of 77.57 intraday on 3/13/2020, its highest level since the financial crisis of 2008. $VIX is up from a below-average and overbought 12.10 on1/17/2020.
The AAII investor sentiment survey is extremely oversold, with 18.95% Bullish, 29.74% Neutral, and 51.31% Bearish. The Bullish plus Neutral percentage of 48.69% is down from an extremely overbought 79.53% on12/19/2019.
The Equity Put/Call Ratio is extremely oversold, reaching 1.28 on 3/12/2020, its highest and most extreme level since the financial crisis of 2008. Options speculators typically react to the price action: when stock prices go up they trade more calls, and when stock prices go down they trade more puts. The Art of Contrary Thinking would suggest becoming more bullish as this P/C ratio rises toward extremely high levels and more bearish as it falls to extremely lowlevels.
The CNN Money Fear & Greed Index is extremely fearful and oversold, falling to 1 on 3/12/2020, down from overbought and extremely greedy levels in the 90-100 range in early January, 2020. For details, see http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ _THE FULL REPORT OFFERS CLEAR AND UNBIASED GUIDANCE ON THE FOLLOWINGEACH WEEK:_
Global stock markets The Defensive stock sectors The Health Care sector The Cyclical sectors The Technology sector The Financials sector U.S. bonds and notes Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture) Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds _NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE ACTION_. Preserve your capital by placing your assets under our careful management--before the next major bear market of -20% to -50% devastates most portfolios. Make no mistake, the ongoing global economic and financial crisis has not been fixed by any sound or lasting solution. History shows that the authorities will not protect you or give you any advance warning--_but we will_. If you agree that making money while staying safe is better than taking big risks in the stock market and exposing your nest egg to potentially ruinous losses, we would be very happy to implement our time-tested strategies for all of your assets. It makes good sense to choose protection--especially at this time when the financial world is stretched out of proportion. We are always happy to discuss your goals and concerns and answer allyour questions.
Call us now for a free consultation.Please contact
BILL ANDERSON
by phone: 646-652-6879 or by email: ANDERSON@COLBYASSETMANAGEMENT.COM_
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --click here. _
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk. (Check out the great new version XVII released November, 2019) Click this link to save 9%-10% on _METASTOCK® _software .
_ _
___ 11-Year Outperformance by the Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength _ My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength OUTPERFORMED THE S&P 500 BY OVER AN 11-YEAR PERIOD OF REAL-TIME WEEKLY TESTS. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL. See _The Colby Global Markets Report_ (click here)._ _
___ _ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .My latest book was
named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issueof Futures.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 250 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements. Click this link to save 9%-10% on _METASTOCK® _ software. Or, click the banner below for a one-month free trial. My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study. Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules . According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to thoseshown.
Trading and investing involve risk of significant loss. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer .
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Syndicate content on these pages Email Colby about his Custom Research, Analysis, Trading Systems Development, and Investment Strategy Consulting Services. SUBSCRIBE TO _THE COLBY GLOBAL MARKETS REPORT_ _METASTOCK® _ technical analysis software powers this technical analysis. SAVE 7%-9% by ordering here. Great new version just released November, 2019. Preview Colby's Latest Book:_ THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF TECHNICAL MARKET INDICATORS__, SECOND EDITION,2003. _
Dow Theory Analysis
Gann Angles Analysis_ _ Update on EMA
Crossover Signals
Money Management Rules How To Become A Top Trader. Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using "Annual Relative Advantage". Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index". Robert W. Colby, CMT, is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of _THE ENCYCLOPEDIA OF TECHNICAL MARKET INDICATORS_, SECOND EDITION, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing. Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the _CMT ASSOCIATION (HTTPS://CMTASSOCIATION.ORG/)_ after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the CMT Association's high standards. He also supports the _THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EDUCATIONAL FOUNDATION (HTTPS://WWW.TAEDUCATION.ORG/ABOUT/)_, which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major businessschools.
"Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing marketindicators."
--Bill Meridian, top-ranked investment analyst and international fund manager, www.billmeridian.com Please click here to contact Colby directly. Privacy Policy: Your privacy is important to us. It is strictly against the policy of this website to employ spam, popups, ad ware, orspy ware.
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"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", _FORBES, INVESTMENT GUIDE, SPECIAL ISSUE, _June 4, 2007. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in _TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCKS & COMMODITIES _magazine, December 2006 issue. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this free article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this free article.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in _SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE_, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _TRADINGMARKETS.COM _interviewed Robert W. Colby, CMT. View the entire interview online. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _ACTIVE TRADER_ magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised _ENCYCLOPEDIA OF TECHNICAL MARKET INDICATORS, SECOND EDITION_. By Active Trader Staff." . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For information about _METHODS_that would
have _PERFORMED SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER_ than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link: Please click here to contact Colby directly. Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 200 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements. Great new version just released November, 2019. Click this link to save 7%-9% on _METASTOCK® _ software. Or, click the banner below for a one-month free trial.Details
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