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WHAT IS LOST IN POST-SCARCITY? This access travels with the consumer so long as they take their phone with them and can be played on headphones, car speakers, and home speakers. Switching between genres, artists, and songs is also nearly frictionless. From the perspective of the consumer, music streaming services are essentially what a post-scarcity utopia looks like. THE PRIVATE PROPERTY AND PERSONAL The typical socialist view is that, in general, non-produced assets and capital goods should be collectively owned by the entire relevant population while consumer goods, once distributed, should be privately owned by the individual. The category of consumer goods DEMOCRATS WHO DISENFRANCHISE Democrats Who Disenfranchise. Two election process topics have dominated the discourse in the last couple of months. The first is HR1, a Democratic initiative that would, among other things, expand same-day voter registration, automatic voter registration, vote-by-mail and and early voting. The second is the Georgia votinglaw, a Republican
IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Contracting Covid Is Like Getting an 84% Efficacy Vaccine. The discourse is ablaze with commentary about the CDC’s recommendation to temporarily halt the use of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. The reason for the recommendation is that six women developed a rare blood-clotting disease shortly after receiving the vaccine. CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this THE ANTI-BIGNESS IDEOLOGY Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias has a piece arguing that Amazon is not a monopoly and that a lot of what passes for anti-monopoly discourse is actually anti-bigness discourse. I agree with Yglesias on this point. Not all anti-monopoly advocates are motivated by anti-bigness per se, but many of them are, and this can create some confusion when it comes to understanding what they are trying SOCIALISM AND THE WELFARE STATE Socialism and the welfare state are not competing ways to address the same problems. They are complementary ways of addressing very different problems. One of the problems with the laissez-faire capitalist system is that, in it, the ownership and control of production is concentrated in the hands of a relatively small group ofpeople.
WHAT IS LOST IN POST-SCARCITY? This access travels with the consumer so long as they take their phone with them and can be played on headphones, car speakers, and home speakers. Switching between genres, artists, and songs is also nearly frictionless. From the perspective of the consumer, music streaming services are essentially what a post-scarcity utopia looks like. THE PRIVATE PROPERTY AND PERSONAL The typical socialist view is that, in general, non-produced assets and capital goods should be collectively owned by the entire relevant population while consumer goods, once distributed, should be privately owned by the individual. The category of consumer goods DEMOCRATS WHO DISENFRANCHISE Democrats Who Disenfranchise. Two election process topics have dominated the discourse in the last couple of months. The first is HR1, a Democratic initiative that would, among other things, expand same-day voter registration, automatic voter registration, vote-by-mail and and early voting. The second is the Georgia votinglaw, a Republican
IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
MATT BRUENIG
The Communal Feeling of Monopoly. Netflix is currently streaming The Last Blockbuster, a movie about the rise and fall of the monopoly video rental giant. There are a lot of interesting tidbits in the movie, including a former executive explaining that the company did not really get caught flat-footed by services like Netflix but wasinstead
THE PRIVATE PROPERTY AND PERSONAL The typical socialist view is that, in general, non-produced assets and capital goods should be collectively owned by the entire relevant population while consumer goods, once distributed, should be privately owned by the individual. The category of consumer goods SHORTS – MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The right-wing claims that increasing the federal debt steals from the future generation. This is wrong. First, the federal debt never needs to be repaid, only the interest on the federal debt. IMPLEMENTING SOCIALISM I think that figuring out how to implement a functioning socialist system is an indispensable part of advocating for such a system fortwo reasons.
ME AND MODERN MONETARY THEORY Normally, we would say it will tax $10 from Rachel, thus causing her bank account to fall to $90, and the government’s bank account to jump to $10. We understand this as transferring $10 from Rachel to the government. MMTers say that we are mentally confused when we call this a transfer. Money is not a real thing like that. NICKEL-AND-DIME SOCIALISM Socialism is the idea that capital (the means of production) should be owned collectively. There are divergent ideas about how to achievethis in reality.
THE MEIDNER PLAN FOR SOCIALISM The Meidner Plan for Socialism. Rudolf Meidner was the Swedish economist most responsible for Sweden’s economic model in the 1950s to 1970s. Near the end of his reign and the golden era of Swedish social democracy, he put forward a proposal that became known as the Meidner Plan. If followed, the Meidner Plan would have graduallytransferred
VIOLENCE, PROPERTY, THEFT, AND ENTITLEMENT The modified definition of theft goes like this: Theft occurs when (1) you threaten or use force against someone (2) to exclude them from scarce material resources (3) without their consent (4) provided the scarce material resource belongs to them. The fourth prong is the Entitlement Prong. It essentially states that (1)- (3) are only theft TRANSRACE AND TRANSGENDER The pro-transgender position is driven by the underlying argument that gender is a performative social construct. But this is true also of race and, crucially, gender performance is itself racialized. Which is to say there isn’t just some universal femininity or universal masculinity. Rather, performances of both vary across races and MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Enormous productive potential being wasted as unemployment creeps higher. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their June employment report today, and almost all of the findings recorded in the report were awful. Unemployment is up to 9.2 percent, more CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this SOCIALISM AND THE WELFARE STATE Socialism and the welfare state are not competing ways to address the same problems. They are complementary ways of addressing very different problems. One of the problems with the laissez-faire capitalist system is that, in it, the ownership and control of production is concentrated in the hands of a relatively small group ofpeople.
WHAT IS LOST IN POST-SCARCITY? This access travels with the consumer so long as they take their phone with them and can be played on headphones, car speakers, and home speakers. Switching between genres, artists, and songs is also nearly frictionless. From the perspective of the consumer, music streaming services are essentially what a post-scarcity utopia looks like. THE PRIVATE PROPERTY AND PERSONAL PROPERTY DISTINCTION The typical socialist view is that, in general, non-produced assets and capital goods should be collectively owned by the entire relevant population while consumer goods, once distributed, should be privately owned by the individual. The category of consumer goods IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
ME AND MODERN MONETARY THEORY Normally, we would say it will tax $10 from Rachel, thus causing her bank account to fall to $90, and the government’s bank account to jump to $10. We understand this as transferring $10 from Rachel to the government. MMTers say that we are mentally confused when we call this a transfer. Money is not a real thing like that. WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
STRUCTURAL POVERTY, OBVIOUSLY THE CASE Structural Poverty. To rehash the basic idea: structural poverty refers to poverty that is derivative of the way that we have structured our economy. In particular, when I use it, I am generally referring to the way in which market economic structures (which, recall, are imposed by governments) distribute income, and how thatdistribution
THE NOZICKIAN CASE FOR RAWLS’ DIFFERENCE PRINCIPLE The decision to opt into whatever non-Rawlsian system you are using therefore always runs afoul of Nozick’s non-worsening requirement. Thus, there is a very strong Nozickian case to be made for Rawls’ difference principle. Because the reality of scarcity causes the use of resources to necessarily infringe upon the liberty of others, it WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this SOCIALISM AND THE WELFARE STATE Socialism and the welfare state are not competing ways to address the same problems. They are complementary ways of addressing very different problems. One of the problems with the laissez-faire capitalist system is that, in it, the ownership and control of production is concentrated in the hands of a relatively small group ofpeople.
WHAT IS LOST IN POST-SCARCITY? This access travels with the consumer so long as they take their phone with them and can be played on headphones, car speakers, and home speakers. Switching between genres, artists, and songs is also nearly frictionless. From the perspective of the consumer, music streaming services are essentially what a post-scarcity utopia looks like. THE PRIVATE PROPERTY AND PERSONAL PROPERTY DISTINCTION The typical socialist view is that, in general, non-produced assets and capital goods should be collectively owned by the entire relevant population while consumer goods, once distributed, should be privately owned by the individual. The category of consumer goods IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
ME AND MODERN MONETARY THEORY Normally, we would say it will tax $10 from Rachel, thus causing her bank account to fall to $90, and the government’s bank account to jump to $10. We understand this as transferring $10 from Rachel to the government. MMTers say that we are mentally confused when we call this a transfer. Money is not a real thing like that. WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
STRUCTURAL POVERTY, OBVIOUSLY THE CASE Structural Poverty. To rehash the basic idea: structural poverty refers to poverty that is derivative of the way that we have structured our economy. In particular, when I use it, I am generally referring to the way in which market economic structures (which, recall, are imposed by governments) distribute income, and how thatdistribution
THE NOZICKIAN CASE FOR RAWLS’ DIFFERENCE PRINCIPLE The decision to opt into whatever non-Rawlsian system you are using therefore always runs afoul of Nozick’s non-worsening requirement. Thus, there is a very strong Nozickian case to be made for Rawls’ difference principle. Because the reality of scarcity causes the use of resources to necessarily infringe upon the liberty of others, it WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Contracting Covid Is Like Getting an 84% Efficacy Vaccine. The discourse is ablaze with commentary about the CDC’s recommendation to temporarily halt the use of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. The reason for the recommendation is that six women developed a rare blood-clotting disease shortly after receiving the vaccine. CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this PHILOSOPHY – PAGE 25 – MATT BRUENIG DOT COM A three-author piece on libertarianism and workplace coercion has been ripping through the popular political blogs in the last few days. The piece is long, and its points are varied, but the biggest one is that laissez-faire capitalism — the favored economic form of libertarianism — generates conditions of coercion that violate thevery liberty
IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The Christian Socialist was a British publication in the late 19th and early 20th century. I pulled out this fun bit: If the means of production were monopolised by one individual, everybody would admit that a man in such a position would have despotic DEMOCRATS WHO DISENFRANCHISE Democrats Who Disenfranchise. Two election process topics have dominated the discourse in the last couple of months. The first is HR1, a Democratic initiative that would, among other things, expand same-day voter registration, automatic voter registration, vote-by-mail and and early voting. The second is the Georgia votinglaw, a Republican
MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Jeremy Corbyn won the leadership of the UK Labour Party. As usually happens when the left scores an electoral victory, the center-left and others has made sure to inform Corbyn and his supporters that it is bad that he won and that he never should have tried to win. PHILOSOPHY – PAGE 26 – MATT BRUENIG DOT COM James Kwak has an article in The Atlantic today about the ideological motivations of the modern-day Republican party. Specifically, he tries to explain why Republicans — the pre-eminent haters of taxation — often suggest raising taxes on the very poor. VIOLENCE, PROPERTY, THEFT, AND ENTITLEMENT The modified definition of theft goes like this: Theft occurs when (1) you threaten or use force against someone (2) to exclude them from scarce material resources (3) without their consent (4) provided the scarce material resource belongs to them. The fourth prong is the Entitlement Prong. It essentially states that (1)- (3) are only theft A BASIC PRIMER ON RAWLSIAN AND EGALITARIAN DISTRIBUTIVE Defenders of egalitarianism have at least two arguments against the Rawlsian approach. First, some argue that the introduction of inequality in and of itself creates social problems. This is the basic thesis of The Spirit Level. At some point, marginal increases in total consumption do not deliver that much more enjoyment or happiness. CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this SOCIALISM AND THE WELFARE STATE Socialism and the welfare state are not competing ways to address the same problems. They are complementary ways of addressing very different problems. One of the problems with the laissez-faire capitalist system is that, in it, the ownership and control of production is concentrated in the hands of a relatively small group ofpeople.
WHAT IS LOST IN POST-SCARCITY? This access travels with the consumer so long as they take their phone with them and can be played on headphones, car speakers, and home speakers. Switching between genres, artists, and songs is also nearly frictionless. From the perspective of the consumer, music streaming services are essentially what a post-scarcity utopia looks like. THE PRIVATE PROPERTY AND PERSONAL PROPERTY DISTINCTION The typical socialist view is that, in general, non-produced assets and capital goods should be collectively owned by the entire relevant population while consumer goods, once distributed, should be privately owned by the individual. The category of consumer goods IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
ME AND MODERN MONETARY THEORY Normally, we would say it will tax $10 from Rachel, thus causing her bank account to fall to $90, and the government’s bank account to jump to $10. We understand this as transferring $10 from Rachel to the government. MMTers say that we are mentally confused when we call this a transfer. Money is not a real thing like that. WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
STRUCTURAL POVERTY, OBVIOUSLY THE CASE Structural Poverty. To rehash the basic idea: structural poverty refers to poverty that is derivative of the way that we have structured our economy. In particular, when I use it, I am generally referring to the way in which market economic structures (which, recall, are imposed by governments) distribute income, and how thatdistribution
THE NOZICKIAN CASE FOR RAWLS’ DIFFERENCE PRINCIPLE The decision to opt into whatever non-Rawlsian system you are using therefore always runs afoul of Nozick’s non-worsening requirement. Thus, there is a very strong Nozickian case to be made for Rawls’ difference principle. Because the reality of scarcity causes the use of resources to necessarily infringe upon the liberty of others, it WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this SOCIALISM AND THE WELFARE STATE Socialism and the welfare state are not competing ways to address the same problems. They are complementary ways of addressing very different problems. One of the problems with the laissez-faire capitalist system is that, in it, the ownership and control of production is concentrated in the hands of a relatively small group ofpeople.
WHAT IS LOST IN POST-SCARCITY? This access travels with the consumer so long as they take their phone with them and can be played on headphones, car speakers, and home speakers. Switching between genres, artists, and songs is also nearly frictionless. From the perspective of the consumer, music streaming services are essentially what a post-scarcity utopia looks like. THE PRIVATE PROPERTY AND PERSONAL PROPERTY DISTINCTION The typical socialist view is that, in general, non-produced assets and capital goods should be collectively owned by the entire relevant population while consumer goods, once distributed, should be privately owned by the individual. The category of consumer goods IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
ME AND MODERN MONETARY THEORY Normally, we would say it will tax $10 from Rachel, thus causing her bank account to fall to $90, and the government’s bank account to jump to $10. We understand this as transferring $10 from Rachel to the government. MMTers say that we are mentally confused when we call this a transfer. Money is not a real thing like that. WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
STRUCTURAL POVERTY, OBVIOUSLY THE CASE Structural Poverty. To rehash the basic idea: structural poverty refers to poverty that is derivative of the way that we have structured our economy. In particular, when I use it, I am generally referring to the way in which market economic structures (which, recall, are imposed by governments) distribute income, and how thatdistribution
THE NOZICKIAN CASE FOR RAWLS’ DIFFERENCE PRINCIPLE The decision to opt into whatever non-Rawlsian system you are using therefore always runs afoul of Nozick’s non-worsening requirement. Thus, there is a very strong Nozickian case to be made for Rawls’ difference principle. Because the reality of scarcity causes the use of resources to necessarily infringe upon the liberty of others, it WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Contracting Covid Is Like Getting an 84% Efficacy Vaccine. The discourse is ablaze with commentary about the CDC’s recommendation to temporarily halt the use of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. The reason for the recommendation is that six women developed a rare blood-clotting disease shortly after receiving the vaccine. CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The Christian Socialist was a British publication in the late 19th and early 20th century. I pulled out this fun bit: If the means of production were monopolised by one individual, everybody would admit that a man in such a position would have despotic DEMOCRATS WHO DISENFRANCHISE Democrats Who Disenfranchise. Two election process topics have dominated the discourse in the last couple of months. The first is HR1, a Democratic initiative that would, among other things, expand same-day voter registration, automatic voter registration, vote-by-mail and and early voting. The second is the Georgia votinglaw, a Republican
MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Conor P. Williams has a piece at 74 million that dabbles in a genre I’ve been meaning to comment on for a while. The nut of it is suggested by the title: Liberals Push to Correct Inequality — Just Not If It Involves Opening Up Our Neighborhood Schools. PHILOSOPHY – PAGE 26 – MATT BRUENIG DOT COM One of the fundamental splits between libertarians and left-liberals is the two groups’ understanding of voluntariness. For libertarians, voluntariness is a purely procedural notion. VIOLENCE, PROPERTY, THEFT, AND ENTITLEMENT The modified definition of theft goes like this: Theft occurs when (1) you threaten or use force against someone (2) to exclude them from scarce material resources (3) without their consent (4) provided the scarce material resource belongs to them. The fourth prong is the Entitlement Prong. It essentially states that (1)- (3) are only theft THE MEIDNER PLAN FOR SOCIALISM The Meidner Plan for Socialism. Rudolf Meidner was the Swedish economist most responsible for Sweden’s economic model in the 1950s to 1970s. Near the end of his reign and the golden era of Swedish social democracy, he put forward a proposal that became known as the Meidner Plan. If followed, the Meidner Plan would have graduallytransferred
A BASIC PRIMER ON RAWLSIAN AND EGALITARIAN DISTRIBUTIVE Defenders of egalitarianism have at least two arguments against the Rawlsian approach. First, some argue that the introduction of inequality in and of itself creates social problems. This is the basic thesis of The Spirit Level. At some point, marginal increases in total consumption do not deliver that much more enjoyment or happiness. CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The Christian Socialist was a British publication in the late 19th and early 20th century. I pulled out this fun bit: If the means of production were monopolised by one individual, everybody would admit that a man in such a position would have despotic ME AND MODERN MONETARY THEORY Normally, we would say it will tax $10 from Rachel, thus causing her bank account to fall to $90, and the government’s bank account to jump to $10. We understand this as transferring $10 from Rachel to the government. MMTers say that we are mentally confused when we call this a transfer. Money is not a real thing like that. WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
THE MEIDNER PLAN FOR SOCIALISM The Meidner Plan for Socialism. Rudolf Meidner was the Swedish economist most responsible for Sweden’s economic model in the 1950s to 1970s. Near the end of his reign and the golden era of Swedish social democracy, he put forward a proposal that became known as the Meidner Plan. If followed, the Meidner Plan would have graduallytransferred
STRUCTURAL POVERTY, OBVIOUSLY THE CASE Structural Poverty. To rehash the basic idea: structural poverty refers to poverty that is derivative of the way that we have structured our economy. In particular, when I use it, I am generally referring to the way in which market economic structures (which, recall, are imposed by governments) distribute income, and how thatdistribution
A BASIC PRIMER ON RAWLSIAN AND EGALITARIAN DISTRIBUTIVE Defenders of egalitarianism have at least two arguments against the Rawlsian approach. First, some argue that the introduction of inequality in and of itself creates social problems. This is the basic thesis of The Spirit Level. At some point, marginal increases in total consumption do not deliver that much more enjoyment or happiness. WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Enormous productive potential being wasted as unemployment creeps higher. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their June employment report today, and almost all of the findings recorded in the report were awful. Unemployment is up to 9.2 percent, moreMATTBRUENIG
301 Moved Permanently. openresty CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The Christian Socialist was a British publication in the late 19th and early 20th century. I pulled out this fun bit: If the means of production were monopolised by one individual, everybody would admit that a man in such a position would have despotic ME AND MODERN MONETARY THEORY Normally, we would say it will tax $10 from Rachel, thus causing her bank account to fall to $90, and the government’s bank account to jump to $10. We understand this as transferring $10 from Rachel to the government. MMTers say that we are mentally confused when we call this a transfer. Money is not a real thing like that. WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
THE MEIDNER PLAN FOR SOCIALISM The Meidner Plan for Socialism. Rudolf Meidner was the Swedish economist most responsible for Sweden’s economic model in the 1950s to 1970s. Near the end of his reign and the golden era of Swedish social democracy, he put forward a proposal that became known as the Meidner Plan. If followed, the Meidner Plan would have graduallytransferred
STRUCTURAL POVERTY, OBVIOUSLY THE CASE Structural Poverty. To rehash the basic idea: structural poverty refers to poverty that is derivative of the way that we have structured our economy. In particular, when I use it, I am generally referring to the way in which market economic structures (which, recall, are imposed by governments) distribute income, and how thatdistribution
A BASIC PRIMER ON RAWLSIAN AND EGALITARIAN DISTRIBUTIVE Defenders of egalitarianism have at least two arguments against the Rawlsian approach. First, some argue that the introduction of inequality in and of itself creates social problems. This is the basic thesis of The Spirit Level. At some point, marginal increases in total consumption do not deliver that much more enjoyment or happiness. WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Enormous productive potential being wasted as unemployment creeps higher. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their June employment report today, and almost all of the findings recorded in the report were awful. Unemployment is up to 9.2 percent, moreMATTBRUENIG
301 Moved Permanently. openresty MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Contracting Covid Is Like Getting an 84% Efficacy Vaccine. The discourse is ablaze with commentary about the CDC’s recommendation to temporarily halt the use of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. The reason for the recommendation is that six women developed a rare blood-clotting disease shortly after receiving the vaccine.MATT BRUENIG
The Communal Feeling of Monopoly. Netflix is currently streaming The Last Blockbuster, a movie about the rise and fall of the monopoly video rental giant. There are a lot of interesting tidbits in the movie, including a former executive explaining that the company did not really get caught flat-footed by services like Netflix but wasinstead
MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The layer of topsoil a person has mixed their labor with could be shoveled into a truck and moved elsewhere. Once that soil is moved, nothing is left in the space that the person has mixed their labor with. The same is true of any other labor mixed in any other space. A house built on some piece of land could be loaded onto a special truckand
MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The Christian Socialist was a British publication in the late 19th and early 20th century. I pulled out this fun bit: If the means of production were monopolised by one individual, everybody would admit that a man in such a position would have despotic WHAT IS LOST IN POST-SCARCITY? This access travels with the consumer so long as they take their phone with them and can be played on headphones, car speakers, and home speakers. Switching between genres, artists, and songs is also nearly frictionless. From the perspective of the consumer, music streaming services are essentially what a post-scarcity utopia looks like. IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
THE PRIVATE PROPERTY AND PERSONAL PROPERTY DISTINCTION The typical socialist view is that, in general, non-produced assets and capital goods should be collectively owned by the entire relevant population while consumer goods, once distributed, should be privately owned by the individual. The category of consumer goods DEMOCRATS WHO DISENFRANCHISE Democrats Who Disenfranchise. Two election process topics have dominated the discourse in the last couple of months. The first is HR1, a Democratic initiative that would, among other things, expand same-day voter registration, automatic voter registration, vote-by-mail and and early voting. The second is the Georgia votinglaw, a Republican
PHILOSOPHY – PAGE 26 – MATT BRUENIG DOT COM One of the fundamental splits between libertarians and left-liberals is the two groups’ understanding of voluntariness. For libertarians, voluntariness is a purely procedural notion. VIOLENCE, PROPERTY, THEFT, AND ENTITLEMENT The modified definition of theft goes like this: Theft occurs when (1) you threaten or use force against someone (2) to exclude them from scarce material resources (3) without their consent (4) provided the scarce material resource belongs to them. The fourth prong is the Entitlement Prong. It essentially states that (1)- (3) are only theft CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The Christian Socialist was a British publication in the late 19th and early 20th century. I pulled out this fun bit: If the means of production were monopolised by one individual, everybody would admit that a man in such a position would have despotic ME AND MODERN MONETARY THEORY Normally, we would say it will tax $10 from Rachel, thus causing her bank account to fall to $90, and the government’s bank account to jump to $10. We understand this as transferring $10 from Rachel to the government. MMTers say that we are mentally confused when we call this a transfer. Money is not a real thing like that. WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
THE MEIDNER PLAN FOR SOCIALISM The Meidner Plan for Socialism. Rudolf Meidner was the Swedish economist most responsible for Sweden’s economic model in the 1950s to 1970s. Near the end of his reign and the golden era of Swedish social democracy, he put forward a proposal that became known as the Meidner Plan. If followed, the Meidner Plan would have graduallytransferred
STRUCTURAL POVERTY, OBVIOUSLY THE CASE Structural Poverty. To rehash the basic idea: structural poverty refers to poverty that is derivative of the way that we have structured our economy. In particular, when I use it, I am generally referring to the way in which market economic structures (which, recall, are imposed by governments) distribute income, and how thatdistribution
A BASIC PRIMER ON RAWLSIAN AND EGALITARIAN DISTRIBUTIVE Defenders of egalitarianism have at least two arguments against the Rawlsian approach. First, some argue that the introduction of inequality in and of itself creates social problems. This is the basic thesis of The Spirit Level. At some point, marginal increases in total consumption do not deliver that much more enjoyment or happiness. WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Enormous productive potential being wasted as unemployment creeps higher. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their June employment report today, and almost all of the findings recorded in the report were awful. Unemployment is up to 9.2 percent, moreMATTBRUENIG
301 Moved Permanently. openresty CONTRACTING COVID IS LIKE GETTING AN 84% EFFICACY VACCINE This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. The 84% efficacy is less than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, which clock in at 94% and 95% respectively. But it is more effective than the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, which has an efficacy of just 72%. Assuming this MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The Christian Socialist was a British publication in the late 19th and early 20th century. I pulled out this fun bit: If the means of production were monopolised by one individual, everybody would admit that a man in such a position would have despotic ME AND MODERN MONETARY THEORY Normally, we would say it will tax $10 from Rachel, thus causing her bank account to fall to $90, and the government’s bank account to jump to $10. We understand this as transferring $10 from Rachel to the government. MMTers say that we are mentally confused when we call this a transfer. Money is not a real thing like that. WHAT IS A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TRANSACTION REALLY? Imagine you are going on a nature walk on an extremely cold day. You are ten miles from your home or any other shelter. I come along, point a gun at your head, and steal all of your clothes, but leave you yourwallet.
THE MEIDNER PLAN FOR SOCIALISM The Meidner Plan for Socialism. Rudolf Meidner was the Swedish economist most responsible for Sweden’s economic model in the 1950s to 1970s. Near the end of his reign and the golden era of Swedish social democracy, he put forward a proposal that became known as the Meidner Plan. If followed, the Meidner Plan would have graduallytransferred
STRUCTURAL POVERTY, OBVIOUSLY THE CASE Structural Poverty. To rehash the basic idea: structural poverty refers to poverty that is derivative of the way that we have structured our economy. In particular, when I use it, I am generally referring to the way in which market economic structures (which, recall, are imposed by governments) distribute income, and how thatdistribution
A BASIC PRIMER ON RAWLSIAN AND EGALITARIAN DISTRIBUTIVE Defenders of egalitarianism have at least two arguments against the Rawlsian approach. First, some argue that the introduction of inequality in and of itself creates social problems. This is the basic thesis of The Spirit Level. At some point, marginal increases in total consumption do not deliver that much more enjoyment or happiness. WHAT’S MORE IMPORTANT: A COLLEGE DEGREE OR BEING BORN RICH Notice that only 10% of those kids wind up in the richest fifth. So, you are 2.5x more likely to be a rich adult if you were born rich and never bothered to go to college than if you were born poor and, against all odds, went to college and graduated. The disparity in the outcomes of rich and poor kids persists, not only when you control for MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Enormous productive potential being wasted as unemployment creeps higher. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their June employment report today, and almost all of the findings recorded in the report were awful. Unemployment is up to 9.2 percent, moreMATTBRUENIG
301 Moved Permanently. openresty MATT BRUENIG DOT COM Contracting Covid Is Like Getting an 84% Efficacy Vaccine. The discourse is ablaze with commentary about the CDC’s recommendation to temporarily halt the use of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. The reason for the recommendation is that six women developed a rare blood-clotting disease shortly after receiving the vaccine.MATT BRUENIG
The Communal Feeling of Monopoly. Netflix is currently streaming The Last Blockbuster, a movie about the rise and fall of the monopoly video rental giant. There are a lot of interesting tidbits in the movie, including a former executive explaining that the company did not really get caught flat-footed by services like Netflix but wasinstead
MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The layer of topsoil a person has mixed their labor with could be shoveled into a truck and moved elsewhere. Once that soil is moved, nothing is left in the space that the person has mixed their labor with. The same is true of any other labor mixed in any other space. A house built on some piece of land could be loaded onto a special truckand
MATT BRUENIG DOT COM The Christian Socialist was a British publication in the late 19th and early 20th century. I pulled out this fun bit: If the means of production were monopolised by one individual, everybody would admit that a man in such a position would have despotic WHAT IS LOST IN POST-SCARCITY? This access travels with the consumer so long as they take their phone with them and can be played on headphones, car speakers, and home speakers. Switching between genres, artists, and songs is also nearly frictionless. From the perspective of the consumer, music streaming services are essentially what a post-scarcity utopia looks like. IS MERITOCRACY REAL? Is Meritocracy Real? Over at Slow Boring, Matt Yglesias argues that meritocracy is real but bad. Yglesias contrasts his take with the conventional position that is presented as anti-meritocracy but actually just argues that we don’t live in a meritocracy. And if you talk to people with a curious and open mind, you’ll pretty quicklyfind out
THE PRIVATE PROPERTY AND PERSONAL PROPERTY DISTINCTION The typical socialist view is that, in general, non-produced assets and capital goods should be collectively owned by the entire relevant population while consumer goods, once distributed, should be privately owned by the individual. The category of consumer goods DEMOCRATS WHO DISENFRANCHISE Democrats Who Disenfranchise. Two election process topics have dominated the discourse in the last couple of months. The first is HR1, a Democratic initiative that would, among other things, expand same-day voter registration, automatic voter registration, vote-by-mail and and early voting. The second is the Georgia votinglaw, a Republican
PHILOSOPHY – PAGE 26 – MATT BRUENIG DOT COM One of the fundamental splits between libertarians and left-liberals is the two groups’ understanding of voluntariness. For libertarians, voluntariness is a purely procedural notion. VIOLENCE, PROPERTY, THEFT, AND ENTITLEMENT The modified definition of theft goes like this: Theft occurs when (1) you threaten or use force against someone (2) to exclude them from scarce material resources (3) without their consent (4) provided the scarce material resource belongs to them. The fourth prong is the Entitlement Prong. It essentially states that (1)- (3) are only theftSkip to content
MATTBRUENIG | POLITICS TRUMP NLRB SMASHED GOOGLE GUY In August of last year, I wrote that the new Republican-led NLRB would reject James Damore’s unfair labor practice charge. I argued that they would do so, not because long-standing NLRB law requires them to, but rather because the management-side attorneys that lead Republican NLRB administrations want to give management as much discretion as possible to fire people. We learned today that this is precisely what ended uphappening.
The NLRB General Counsel wrote a memo advising NLRB Region 32 not to pursue the case. The memo concedes that the Damore communications that led to him being fired were mostly protected by the NLRA, but then goes on to say that those protected communications were mixed in with statements about women that were so over the top that he lost protection under the NLRA. Here’s the money shot: > In furtherance of these legitimate interests, employers must be > permitted to “nip in the bud” the kinds of employee conduct that > could lead to a “hostile workplace,” rather than waiting until > an actionable hostile workplace has been created before taking> action.
You get that? It does not say that Damore’s conduct was bad enough to constitute a hostile workplace. Under prevailing interpretations of the Civil Rights Act, it probably wasn’t. But it says instead that employers can fire someone for otherwise protected activity if it decides that the protected activity involves conduct _THAT COULD LEAD TO_ a hostile workplace. In support of this proposition, the memo cites only examples from other cases decided by GOP NLRBs, including one where the GOP NLRB upheld the termination of a union activist who said her foreman was a Klansmen. There is almost no chance that a Democratic-controlled NLRB would have reached the same conclusion. As proof of this, consider the _CooperTire_
picketing case decided under the Obama Board. In that case, picketers yelled out clearly racist statements at replacement workers and were fired for doing so. The NLRB said the termination was unlawful because the statements occurred in the context of protected activity (picketing) and the 8th Circuit ultimately affirmed the NLRB’s decision in that case. Picketing is a somewhat different legal situation than memos spread by email lists or whatnot, but the case nonetheless provides a good sense of how much Democratic boards are willing to tolerate in order to reduce the ability of employers to fire people who are engaged in otherwise protected activity. None of this analysis is to say that the Republican position on this is necessarily wrong. The interaction of the Civil Rights Act and the National Labor Relations Act is obviously very tricky on the edges and it may make sense to lean more in the direction of the CRA where the two come into collision. But the Republican calculation here is not based on their love of the CRA. It’s based on their love of management discretion. As I noted in my August post, cases like these are a good test for what Republicans actually care about. One might think that the Trumpian Republican party would do everything they can to defend Damore because of his self-styled bucking of “political correctness.” But one would be wrong. Republicans stay focused on the nuts and bolts of shaping an economic regime that is most favorable to bosses. And if they need to sell out culture warriors to do so, they will every time.Author Matt Bruenig
Posted on February 16, 2018February 17, 2018Categories
Labor 5 Comments
NEOLIBERALS USED TO REFER TO THEMSELVES AS NEW DEMOCRATS Jonathan Chait is mad that people call him a “neoliberal” and soinsists
that the word has no meaning and that it does not describe a real political change that occurred a few decades ago. Many have already explained how silly this feint is, but I would like to add two otherpoints.
First, potent words get stretched in popular discourse to the point of incoherence and contradiction all the time. It is one of the great paradoxes of language that words that pique people eventually get annihilated into meaninglessness through overuse. There is nothing special about “neoliberalism” in this regard. The same could be said of words like “intersectionality,” “structural,” “patriarchy,” and dozens of similar words that had fairly clear meanings at one point but that you can also find people using in a lot of different and conflicting ways in the discourse. Second, if we can put aside the word “neoliberal” for a second, Chait’s main claim here is that nothing changed about the Democratic party and that leftists are lying or delusional when they say it did. What’s weird about this move is that Democrats themselves claimed at the time that they were changing. They even called themselves “New Democrats,” you know like “Neodemocrats,” or maybe even “neoliberals.” Perhaps the self-proclaimed New Democrats, which included Bill Clinton and Al Gore, among others, were lying about changing, but we should at least take seriously the proposition that they were sincere and actually intended, as they claimed, to shift the party towards the center and away from the left. The Democratic Leadership Council, which Bill Clinton was president of prior to his run for the White House, certainly spoke a big game about how they were different from old Democrats. In their 1991 document titled “The New American Choice Resolutions” (there is that pesky word again!), they had this to say: > The old ideologies on the right and left are no longer sufficient to > realize the aspirations of the American people, and both political > parties will be left behind unless they put forth new answers and > new institutions for a new era.> …
> But in the minds of too many Americans, the Democratic Party has > stood for government programs that don’t work, special interests > before the interests of ordinary people, and a reluctance to assert > American values at home and abroad. The New Deal policies that built > and united the middle class no longer command its loyalty.> …
> Our party’s challenge today is to discard the orthodoxies of the > past and make government a champion of national purpose and not a > captive of narrow interests, a creator of opportunity and not an > obstacle to it. Democrats should once again stand for change and > innovation, not blind loyalty to programs of the past. Unlike the > Republicans, we believe in government and want to make it work in > the information age.> …
> The new choice we offer is a new public philosophy, not a new set of> programs.
What does this New Democratic Philosophy consist of? > We believe the mission of government is to expand opportunity, not> bureaucracy.
> …
> We believe the role of government is to guarantee equal opportunity, > not mandate equal outcomes.> …
> We believe our society has a moral duty to experiment with > fundamentally new approaches to liberate the poor from poverty and > dependence by promoting work, family, and independence. America will > not succeed in the information age if we continue to waste the > potential of millions of disadvantaged citizens.> …
> We believe in reinventing government. We want to eliminate unneeded > layers of bureaucracy, and give citizens more choice in public > services, from child care and care for the elderly to public> schools.
And they just keep on going, finishing with a wonderful flourish. > Our goal is to make the beliefs, ideas, and governing approach of > the NEW choice the dominant political thinking in America before > this decade is out. Just as the New Deal shaped the political order > for the industrial age, the NEW choice can define politics in the > information age.>
> Our purpose is not to seek the middle of the road but to build a NEW > road that leads beyond right and left to move America forward.>
> The industrial age is over; the old isms and the old ways don’t > work anymore. Today, and in the months to come, we will put forth > NEW answers and a NEW way of thinking which are based on the > principle of inclusion and work for the greatest public good. We > invite the American people to join our cause. The idea that the New Democrats (don’t call them neoliberals!) represented a break from the Democrats of old that turned against the interests of their base is not a particularly radical one. In fact, a gentleman by the name of Jonathan Chait said as much just four daysago
:
> That is not the approach Democrats have taken in office. Bill > Clinton famously fashioned himself as a “New Democrat,” angering > his base on crime and welfare and declaring the era of big > government over.Imagine that.
Author Matt Bruenig
Posted on December 21,2017
Categories
Philosophy 7 CommentsALABAMA PART II
I wrote a post yesterday pointing out that the real story of Doug Jones’s upset in Alabama was the inordinate amount of white support for the Democratic candidate. In support of this position, I used the 2008 and 2012 exit polls to show that black turnout was no different in 2017 than those years, and yet those years saw the Democrat lose by over 20 points while this election saw the Democrat win by 1.5 points. Some basic math and reasoning tells us that the difference between losing by over 20 points and winning by 1.5 points was not high black turnout but rather white voters supporting the Democrat by much higher margins than they typically do. The post did not really have a point beyond that. There is no clear reason why this helps any of my political preferences. I just thought it would be worthwhile to tell the truth about the Alabama outcome in the face of nearly unanimous misreporting about what happened. Because people who are real into politics often follow it in the same way normal people follow TV shows (i.e. with huge emotional investment in the drama, characters, and plot development), this post attracted a lot of weird ire. Most of the weird ire was just that: strange outbursts with not even an attempt at making a substantive point. But there was one argument that some brought up that is worth addressinghere.
The argument goes like this: It is not right to compare the 2017 election to the 2008 and 2012 elections because the latter two were presidential elections. If you want to really figure out whether black turnout or different white voting behavior was the primary cause of Jones’s victory, you should use midterms or other special electionsas comparisons.
This argument poses some practical difficulties because no such data exists for comparison. But you can fiddle with the exit poll data to simulate what a normal low-black-turnout midterm election would look like and see that, relative to such an election, it is still the case that the change in white voting behavior was by far the largest factor in Jones’s victory. To do that, I created the following baseline scenario. For this scenario, I took the 2017 exit polling data and I subtracted 5 points from the black share of the electorate and added 5 points to the white share of the electorate. This simulates what would have happened if black turnout had been massively lower. For this scenario, I also place white Democratic support at 15% (this was what percent voted for Obama in 2012) and I place black Democratic support at 96% (this was what percent voted for Jones in 2017). As you can see, in the baseline scenario, Doug Jones only gets 34 points from black and white voters combined. From this baseline scenario, we can simulate what would happen if black turnout increases to the level we saw in the Jones election. Holding all else equal, increasing the black share of the vote from 24% to 29% and decreasing the white share of the vote from 71% to 66% gives us this outcome. Jones’s point total rises 4 points from 34 points to 38 points. From the baseline scenario, we can also simulate what would have happened if white voters had swung towards Jones in the magnitude they did, but black turnout had remained unchanged. We do this by increasing the percent of whites voting for Democrats from 15% to 30% (Jones got 30% of the white vote), holding all else equal. Jones’s point total rises 10 points from 34 points to 44 points. Finally, we can bring in the actual 2017 data, which both combined high black turnout and the white swing together. As you’d expect, Doug Jones gets 48 points under this scenario, which is 14 points higher than under the baseline scenario. So the total difference from the baseline scenario is 14 points. The change in the white vote is responsible for 10 of those points and the change in black turnout is responsible for 4. This means the change in white vote was 2.5 times as important as the high black turnout. Of course, all I have done here is simulate a low-black-turnout, normal-white-GOP-support election by fiddling with the numbers in a spreadsheet. You could pick different values if you want and get somewhat different magnitudes. But there is no plausible baseline in which changes in black turnout contributed more to the Jones victory than changes in the white vote.Author Matt Bruenig
Posted on December 15, 2017December 15, 2017Categories
Elections 11 CommentsPOSTS NAVIGATION
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