Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
More Annotations
A complete backup of https://c3controls.com
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://luanadonatelli.com
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://hospitaltlalpan.com
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://pandadoc.com
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://tenants.org.au
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://fotka.com
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://sattamatkavip.com
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://trooper.be
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://droidwiki.org
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://teles-relay.com
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://swefo.eu
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://berlinger.com
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
Favourite Annotations
A complete backup of https://www.alice.org/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music/2
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of http://www.xpee.com/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://www.setedit.de/SetEdit.php?spr=9&Editor=38
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://threelionspub.com/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://species.wikimedia.org/wiki/Cenangiaceae
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
Text
budget.
GLOBAL REAL RATES AND YIELDS Based on actual inflation, US real rates and yields are negative, and the lowest in the developed world. China is downright tight -- aglobal outlier.
DONALD LUSKIN
Donald Luskin Chief Investment Officer don@trendmacro.com Don's 40-year career as an entrepreneur, executive, investment manager and commentator has been built around his passion for the application of technology and innovation to the challenge of investing. WHAT YOU'RE NOT HEARING ABOUT WEARING MASKS TO STOP COVID State-level polling data on masking shows that it didn't lower caseloads in the summer when masks were scarce and experts were divided. But in the winter when experts were agreed and masks became available, higher levels of masking were significantly correlated with controlling case growth. GLOBAL EQUITY RISK PREMIA Equity risk premia are contracting everywhere. In the US, the S&P 500's is within 8 bp of the tightest since the Great Financial Crisis.DONALD L. LUSKIN
$3.6 trillion in new taxes, $5.0 trillion in new spending, $1.4 trillion in new debt. And lower growth. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THE FAILED EXPERIMENT OF COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2020 The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, APRIL 1, 2021 CORPORATE COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, April 1, 2021 Corporate Covid ‘Windfalls’ Are a Myth Some big companies rose to the occasion during the pandemic and did well. But there were TODAY'S CPI DATA: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 4 Implied 5-year inflation, 5 years forward — TIPS — Swaps — U. Michigan Survey 1/0/1900 1% 2% 3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ON THE FEBRUARY JOBS REPORT 3 • Don’t underestimate the power of re-opening for job creation. • 5.1% of the adult US population is unable to work due to business closures caused by the pandemic. 4.1% of persons TRENDMACRO | INSIGHTS FOR ACTION, FOR GLOBAL INVESTORSCOMMENTARIESABOUT USCONTACT USMEDIA APPEARANCES Wall Street Journal editorial page editor Paul Gigot interviews TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin about the May jobs report and the Bidenbudget.
GLOBAL REAL RATES AND YIELDS Based on actual inflation, US real rates and yields are negative, and the lowest in the developed world. China is downright tight -- aglobal outlier.
DONALD LUSKIN
Donald Luskin Chief Investment Officer don@trendmacro.com Don's 40-year career as an entrepreneur, executive, investment manager and commentator has been built around his passion for the application of technology and innovation to the challenge of investing. WHAT YOU'RE NOT HEARING ABOUT WEARING MASKS TO STOP COVID State-level polling data on masking shows that it didn't lower caseloads in the summer when masks were scarce and experts were divided. But in the winter when experts were agreed and masks became available, higher levels of masking were significantly correlated with controlling case growth. GLOBAL EQUITY RISK PREMIA Equity risk premia are contracting everywhere. In the US, the S&P 500's is within 8 bp of the tightest since the Great Financial Crisis.DONALD L. LUSKIN
$3.6 trillion in new taxes, $5.0 trillion in new spending, $1.4 trillion in new debt. And lower growth. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THE FAILED EXPERIMENT OF COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2020 The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, APRIL 1, 2021 CORPORATE COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, April 1, 2021 Corporate Covid ‘Windfalls’ Are a Myth Some big companies rose to the occasion during the pandemic and did well. But there were TODAY'S CPI DATA: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 4 Implied 5-year inflation, 5 years forward — TIPS — Swaps — U. Michigan Survey 1/0/1900 1% 2% 3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ON THE FEBRUARY JOBS REPORT 3 • Don’t underestimate the power of re-opening for job creation. • 5.1% of the adult US population is unable to work due to business closures caused by the pandemic. 4.1% of persons TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 4 US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Act Now, TrendMacrocalculations
TRENDMACRO LIVE! ON THE MARCH JOBS REPORT 2 • As has become usual, the largest gain in payrolls in March was the reopening-sensitive Leisure sector, with 280,000 (see “Data Insights: Jobs” April 2, 2021). But all sectors saw gains, with the exception of Information, which lost 2,000. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, APRIL 1, 2021 CORPORATE COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, April 1, 2021 Corporate Covid ‘Windfalls’ Are a Myth Some big companies rose to the occasion during the pandemic and did well. But there were ON THE FEBRUARY JOBS REPORT 2 the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects its data (please see the chart below). • As usual, the change in net payrolls was strongly dominated by the reopening-sensitive leisure and hospitality sector,showing
2 FINANCIAL +1.48 HEALTH CARE 16.1 INFO TECH -10% CONSUMER 4 P/E ratio: forward consensus, bottom-up, July 2007 to current • First, High, Low, Last Canada, Europe Pacific/EM S&P 500 19 Consumer Disc 29 Canada TSX 16 Japan: Nikkei 15 TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC THOMAS DEMAS, MANAGING DIRECTOR 2 and severity – see “On the March Jobs Report, and Being in Recession (Whatever that Means)” April 3, 2020). • The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has never laid out an TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC THOMAS DEMAS, MANAGING DIRECTOR 3 giving the president this or that emergency power, we have no doubt he would come up with one if he wanted to. But we doubt he will want to, especially considering that when he MANUFACTURING FEB PREV 13-MONTH HISTORY SERVICES FEB PREV 4 Americas data: at a glance Manufacturing Last Prev 13-mo history Services Last Prev 13-mo history Brazil Feb 58.4 56.5 Brazil Feb 47.1 47.0 Mexico Feb 44.2 43.0 ON THE JUNE JOBS REPORT, AND OUR 2020 ELECTION MODEL 2 Presidential Election Prediction Model” March 18, 2019). • But the model still shows Trump losing by a margin of 361 electoral college votes. • All else equal, it would take the gain of another 8 million payrolls to move the model to the point where Trump has eventhe slimmest
3 HEALTH CARE +0.11 UTILITIES 17.7 MATERIALS +59% 4 P/E ratio: forward consensus, bottom-up, July 2007 to current • First, High, Low, Last Canada, Europe Pacific/EM S&P 500 22 Consumer Disc 35 Canada TSX 17 Japan: Nikkei 22 TRENDMACRO | INSIGHTS FOR ACTION, FOR GLOBAL INVESTORSCOMMENTARIESABOUT USCONTACT USMEDIA APPEARANCES Tuesday, June 1, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. $3.6 trillion in new taxes, $5.0 trillion in new spending, $1.4 trillion in new debt. And lowergrowth.
GLOBAL REAL RATES AND YIELDS Global Real Rates and Yields. Global Real Rates and Yields. Tuesday, January 12, 2021. Based on actual inflation, US real rates and yields are negative, and the lowest in the developed world. China is downright tight -- a global outlier. Global Real Rates and Yields. Thursday, March 19, 2020. Measured inflation is lagging, and isheading down.
GLOBAL EQUITY RISK PREMIA Global Equity Risk Premia. Tuesday, July 28, 2020. Four months after the late-March bottom, equity risk premia worldwide have all mean-reverted. In a world of extreme disequilibrium in so many ways, equities and fixed income appear to be in perfect equilibrium. Global Equity Risk Premia. Friday, April 24, 2020.DONALD LUSKIN
Donald Luskin Chief Investment Officer don@trendmacro.com Don's 40-year career as an entrepreneur, executive, investment manager and commentator has been built around his passion for the application of technology and innovation to the challenge of investing.DONALD L. LUSKIN
What you haven't heard about herd immunity. Tuesday, May 11, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. We can debate about vaccinations, but hard evidence of the rate of spread shows we are already there. On the April Jobs Report. Friday, May 7, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. Last year we were “running out of workers.”. TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 3 Rolling out the vaccines in the US and the world rall AK ME 54.6% 45.6% 39.8% 49.5% 32.2% 33.3% WI VT NH 41.4% 48.9% 43.4% 42.8% 47.9% 58.4% 29.5% 31.6% 28.6% TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading Covid-19 Vaccine Works, Even if Side Effects Differ for All, Doctors Say Peter Loftus Wall Street Journal May 17,2021
MICHAEL WARREN
Michael Warren. Dr. Michael Warren. Energy Strategist. mike@trendmacro.com. Based in Houston, Mike brings unique and deeply sourced insights into the business, technology and politics of the global energy markets. Mike was formerly Senior Vice President at Hart Energy, running the upstream research group. He led development ofHart's North
TRENDMACRO LIVE! ON THE MARCH JOBS REPORT 2 • As has become usual, the largest gain in payrolls in March was the reopening-sensitive Leisure sector, with 280,000 (see “Data Insights: Jobs” April 2, 2021). But all sectors saw gains, with the exception of Information, which lost 2,000. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THE FAILED EXPERIMENT OF COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2020 The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread. TRENDMACRO | INSIGHTS FOR ACTION, FOR GLOBAL INVESTORSCOMMENTARIESABOUT USCONTACT USMEDIA APPEARANCES Tuesday, June 1, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. $3.6 trillion in new taxes, $5.0 trillion in new spending, $1.4 trillion in new debt. And lowergrowth.
GLOBAL REAL RATES AND YIELDS Global Real Rates and Yields. Global Real Rates and Yields. Tuesday, January 12, 2021. Based on actual inflation, US real rates and yields are negative, and the lowest in the developed world. China is downright tight -- a global outlier. Global Real Rates and Yields. Thursday, March 19, 2020. Measured inflation is lagging, and isheading down.
GLOBAL EQUITY RISK PREMIA Global Equity Risk Premia. Tuesday, July 28, 2020. Four months after the late-March bottom, equity risk premia worldwide have all mean-reverted. In a world of extreme disequilibrium in so many ways, equities and fixed income appear to be in perfect equilibrium. Global Equity Risk Premia. Friday, April 24, 2020.DONALD LUSKIN
Donald Luskin Chief Investment Officer don@trendmacro.com Don's 40-year career as an entrepreneur, executive, investment manager and commentator has been built around his passion for the application of technology and innovation to the challenge of investing.DONALD L. LUSKIN
What you haven't heard about herd immunity. Tuesday, May 11, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. We can debate about vaccinations, but hard evidence of the rate of spread shows we are already there. On the April Jobs Report. Friday, May 7, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. Last year we were “running out of workers.”. TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 3 Rolling out the vaccines in the US and the world rall AK ME 54.6% 45.6% 39.8% 49.5% 32.2% 33.3% WI VT NH 41.4% 48.9% 43.4% 42.8% 47.9% 58.4% 29.5% 31.6% 28.6% TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading Covid-19 Vaccine Works, Even if Side Effects Differ for All, Doctors Say Peter Loftus Wall Street Journal May 17,2021
MICHAEL WARREN
Michael Warren. Dr. Michael Warren. Energy Strategist. mike@trendmacro.com. Based in Houston, Mike brings unique and deeply sourced insights into the business, technology and politics of the global energy markets. Mike was formerly Senior Vice President at Hart Energy, running the upstream research group. He led development ofHart's North
TRENDMACRO LIVE! ON THE MARCH JOBS REPORT 2 • As has become usual, the largest gain in payrolls in March was the reopening-sensitive Leisure sector, with 280,000 (see “Data Insights: Jobs” April 2, 2021). But all sectors saw gains, with the exception of Information, which lost 2,000. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THE FAILED EXPERIMENT OF COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2020 The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread. TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 4 US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Act Now, TrendMacrocalculations
TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading SpaceX Makes First Nighttime Splash Down With Astronauts Since 1968 Kenneth Chang New York Times May 2, 2021 Was COVID-19 the only culprit behind the extraordinary TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading J&J Vaccine and Blood Clots: The Risks, if Any, Are Very Low Denise Grady and Carl Zimmer New York Times April 13,2021
TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 3 Rolling out the vaccines in the US US overall AK ME 41.0% 25.0% 19.7% 14.2% 9.8% 5.6% WI VT NH 22.3% 25.6% 24.2% 14.1% 13.9% 12.2% 5.3% 6.5% 5.5% WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA TRENDMACRO LIVE! ON THE MARCH JOBS REPORT 2 • As has become usual, the largest gain in payrolls in March was the reopening-sensitive Leisure sector, with 280,000 (see “Data Insights: Jobs” April 2, 2021). But all sectors saw gains, with the exception of Information, which lost 2,000. 3 ENERGY -0.27 UTILITIES 18.6 FINANCIAL +70% CONSUMER DISC 4 P/E ratio: forward consensus, bottom-up, July 2007 to current • First, High, Low, Last Canada, Europe Pacific/EM S&P 500 22 Consumer Disc 34 Canada TSX 16 Japan: Nikkei 21 TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC THOMAS DEMAS, MANAGING DIRECTOR 2 • There are no excuses. But here are our excuses. • TrendMacroFebruary was a disastrous weather month (see “On the February Jobs Report” March 5, 2021). This had the effect of setting back the end of the stay-at-home pandemic year with a whole new TODAY'S CPI DATA: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 4 Implied 5-year inflation, 5 years forward — TIPS — Swaps — U. Michigan Survey 1/0/1900 1% 2% 3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2 FINANCIAL +1.48 HEALTH CARE 16.1 INFO TECH -10% CONSUMER 4 P/E ratio: forward consensus, bottom-up, July 2007 to current • First, High, Low, Last Canada, Europe Pacific/EM S&P 500 19 Consumer Disc 29 Canada TSX 16 Japan: Nikkei 15 INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY SORRY, BUT TESLA'S COOL ELECTRIC 2 buyers in an emerging middle class will prize low cost above all. In many such economies, electrics will have to compete against ultracheap, conventional TRENDMACRO | INSIGHTS FOR ACTION, FOR GLOBAL INVESTORSCOMMENTARIESABOUT USCONTACT USMEDIA APPEARANCES Tuesday, June 1, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. $3.6 trillion in new taxes, $5.0 trillion in new spending, $1.4 trillion in new debt. And lowergrowth.
GLOBAL REAL RATES AND YIELDS Global Real Rates and Yields. Global Real Rates and Yields. Tuesday, January 12, 2021. Based on actual inflation, US real rates and yields are negative, and the lowest in the developed world. China is downright tight -- a global outlier. Global Real Rates and Yields. Thursday, March 19, 2020. Measured inflation is lagging, and isheading down.
GLOBAL EQUITY RISK PREMIA Global Equity Risk Premia. Tuesday, July 28, 2020. Four months after the late-March bottom, equity risk premia worldwide have all mean-reverted. In a world of extreme disequilibrium in so many ways, equities and fixed income appear to be in perfect equilibrium. Global Equity Risk Premia. Friday, April 24, 2020. US CPI/PPI | TRENDMACRO US CPI/PPI. Thursday, November 12, 2020. The recovery momentum for US inflation has slowed as oil prices have stalled. US CPI/PPI. Tuesday, October 13, 2020. 3-month annualized core CPI slows -- slows! -- to 4.9%, 1-month to 2.3%. The Fed seems to have gotten it pretty right.US CPI/PPI
DONALD LUSKIN
Donald Luskin Chief Investment Officer don@trendmacro.com Don's 40-year career as an entrepreneur, executive, investment manager and commentator has been built around his passion for the application of technology and innovation to the challenge of investing.DONALD L. LUSKIN
What you haven't heard about herd immunity. Tuesday, May 11, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. We can debate about vaccinations, but hard evidence of the rate of spread shows we are already there. On the April Jobs Report. Friday, May 7, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. Last year we were “running out of workers.”. TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading Covid-19 Vaccine Works, Even if Side Effects Differ for All, Doctors Say Peter Loftus Wall Street Journal May 17,2021
MICHAEL WARREN
Michael Warren. Dr. Michael Warren. Energy Strategist. mike@trendmacro.com. Based in Houston, Mike brings unique and deeply sourced insights into the business, technology and politics of the global energy markets. Mike was formerly Senior Vice President at Hart Energy, running the upstream research group. He led development ofHart's North
TRENDMACRO LIVE! ON THE MARCH JOBS REPORT 2 • As has become usual, the largest gain in payrolls in March was the reopening-sensitive Leisure sector, with 280,000 (see “Data Insights: Jobs” April 2, 2021). But all sectors saw gains, with the exception of Information, which lost 2,000. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THE FAILED EXPERIMENT OF COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2020 The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread. TRENDMACRO | INSIGHTS FOR ACTION, FOR GLOBAL INVESTORSCOMMENTARIESABOUT USCONTACT USMEDIA APPEARANCES Tuesday, June 1, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. $3.6 trillion in new taxes, $5.0 trillion in new spending, $1.4 trillion in new debt. And lowergrowth.
GLOBAL REAL RATES AND YIELDS Global Real Rates and Yields. Global Real Rates and Yields. Tuesday, January 12, 2021. Based on actual inflation, US real rates and yields are negative, and the lowest in the developed world. China is downright tight -- a global outlier. Global Real Rates and Yields. Thursday, March 19, 2020. Measured inflation is lagging, and isheading down.
GLOBAL EQUITY RISK PREMIA Global Equity Risk Premia. Tuesday, July 28, 2020. Four months after the late-March bottom, equity risk premia worldwide have all mean-reverted. In a world of extreme disequilibrium in so many ways, equities and fixed income appear to be in perfect equilibrium. Global Equity Risk Premia. Friday, April 24, 2020. US CPI/PPI | TRENDMACRO US CPI/PPI. Thursday, November 12, 2020. The recovery momentum for US inflation has slowed as oil prices have stalled. US CPI/PPI. Tuesday, October 13, 2020. 3-month annualized core CPI slows -- slows! -- to 4.9%, 1-month to 2.3%. The Fed seems to have gotten it pretty right.US CPI/PPI
DONALD LUSKIN
Donald Luskin Chief Investment Officer don@trendmacro.com Don's 40-year career as an entrepreneur, executive, investment manager and commentator has been built around his passion for the application of technology and innovation to the challenge of investing.DONALD L. LUSKIN
What you haven't heard about herd immunity. Tuesday, May 11, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. We can debate about vaccinations, but hard evidence of the rate of spread shows we are already there. On the April Jobs Report. Friday, May 7, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. Last year we were “running out of workers.”. TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading Covid-19 Vaccine Works, Even if Side Effects Differ for All, Doctors Say Peter Loftus Wall Street Journal May 17,2021
MICHAEL WARREN
Michael Warren. Dr. Michael Warren. Energy Strategist. mike@trendmacro.com. Based in Houston, Mike brings unique and deeply sourced insights into the business, technology and politics of the global energy markets. Mike was formerly Senior Vice President at Hart Energy, running the upstream research group. He led development ofHart's North
TRENDMACRO LIVE! ON THE MARCH JOBS REPORT 2 • As has become usual, the largest gain in payrolls in March was the reopening-sensitive Leisure sector, with 280,000 (see “Data Insights: Jobs” April 2, 2021). But all sectors saw gains, with the exception of Information, which lost 2,000. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THE FAILED EXPERIMENT OF COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2020 The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread. TRENDMACRO LIVE! ON THE MARCH JOBS REPORT 2 • As has become usual, the largest gain in payrolls in March was the reopening-sensitive Leisure sector, with 280,000 (see “Data Insights: Jobs” April 2, 2021). But all sectors saw gains, with the exception of Information, which lost 2,000. 3 ENERGY -0.27 UTILITIES 18.6 FINANCIAL +70% CONSUMER DISC 4 P/E ratio: forward consensus, bottom-up, July 2007 to current • First, High, Low, Last Canada, Europe Pacific/EM S&P 500 22 Consumer Disc 34 Canada TSX 16 Japan: Nikkei 21 TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 4 US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Act Now, TrendMacrocalculations
TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading SpaceX Makes First Nighttime Splash Down With Astronauts Since 1968 Kenneth Chang New York Times May 2, 2021 Was COVID-19 the only culprit behind the extraordinary INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY SORRY, BUT TESLA'S COOL ELECTRIC 2 buyers in an emerging middle class will prize low cost above all. In many such economies, electrics will have to compete against ultracheap, conventional TODAY'S CPI DATA: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 4 Implied 5-year inflation, 5 years forward — TIPS — Swaps — U. Michigan Survey 1/0/1900 1% 2% 3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC THOMAS DEMAS, MANAGING DIRECTOR 2 • There are no excuses. But here are our excuses. • TrendMacroFebruary was a disastrous weather month (see “On the February Jobs Report” March 5, 2021). This had the effect of setting back the end of the stay-at-home pandemic year with a whole new TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 3 Rolling out the vaccines in the US US overall AK ME 41.0% 25.0% 19.7% 14.2% 9.8% 5.6% WI VT NH 22.3% 25.6% 24.2% 14.1% 13.9% 12.2% 5.3% 6.5% 5.5% WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading How Ike's 1950s America Beat The 'Asian Flu' With Science & Common Sense Niall Ferguson Zero Hedge May 2, 2021 Southwest Airline Kicks Passenger off Flight for Eating TRENDMACRO | INSIGHTS FOR ACTION, FOR GLOBAL INVESTORSCOMMENTARIESABOUT USCONTACT USMEDIA APPEARANCES Tuesday, June 1, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. $3.6 trillion in new taxes, $5.0 trillion in new spending, $1.4 trillion in new debt. And lowergrowth.
GLOBAL REAL RATES AND YIELDS Global Real Rates and Yields. Global Real Rates and Yields. Tuesday, January 12, 2021. Based on actual inflation, US real rates and yields are negative, and the lowest in the developed world. China is downright tight -- a global outlier. Global Real Rates and Yields. Thursday, March 19, 2020. Measured inflation is lagging, and isheading down.
US CPI/PPI | TRENDMACRO US CPI/PPI. Thursday, November 12, 2020. The recovery momentum for US inflation has slowed as oil prices have stalled. US CPI/PPI. Tuesday, October 13, 2020. 3-month annualized core CPI slows -- slows! -- to 4.9%, 1-month to 2.3%. The Fed seems to have gotten it pretty right.US CPI/PPI
GLOBAL EQUITY RISK PREMIA Global Equity Risk Premia. Tuesday, July 28, 2020. Four months after the late-March bottom, equity risk premia worldwide have all mean-reverted. In a world of extreme disequilibrium in so many ways, equities and fixed income appear to be in perfect equilibrium. Global Equity Risk Premia. Friday, April 24, 2020.DONALD L. LUSKIN
What you haven't heard about herd immunity. Tuesday, May 11, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. We can debate about vaccinations, but hard evidence of the rate of spread shows we are already there. On the April Jobs Report. Friday, May 7, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. Last year we were “running out of workers.”.DONALD LUSKIN
Donald Luskin Chief Investment Officer don@trendmacro.com Don's 40-year career as an entrepreneur, executive, investment manager and commentator has been built around his passion for the application of technology and innovation to the challenge of investing. TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 4 US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Act Now, TrendMacrocalculations
TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading How Ike's 1950s America Beat The 'Asian Flu' With Science & Common Sense Niall Ferguson Zero Hedge May 2, 2021 Southwest Airline Kicks Passenger off Flight for Eating THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THE FAILED EXPERIMENT OF COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2020 The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread. TODAY'S CPI DATA: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 4 Implied 5-year inflation, 5 years forward — TIPS — Swaps — U. Michigan Survey 1/0/1900 1% 2% 3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TRENDMACRO | INSIGHTS FOR ACTION, FOR GLOBAL INVESTORSCOMMENTARIESABOUT USCONTACT USMEDIA APPEARANCES Tuesday, June 1, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. $3.6 trillion in new taxes, $5.0 trillion in new spending, $1.4 trillion in new debt. And lowergrowth.
GLOBAL REAL RATES AND YIELDS Global Real Rates and Yields. Global Real Rates and Yields. Tuesday, January 12, 2021. Based on actual inflation, US real rates and yields are negative, and the lowest in the developed world. China is downright tight -- a global outlier. Global Real Rates and Yields. Thursday, March 19, 2020. Measured inflation is lagging, and isheading down.
US CPI/PPI | TRENDMACRO US CPI/PPI. Thursday, November 12, 2020. The recovery momentum for US inflation has slowed as oil prices have stalled. US CPI/PPI. Tuesday, October 13, 2020. 3-month annualized core CPI slows -- slows! -- to 4.9%, 1-month to 2.3%. The Fed seems to have gotten it pretty right.US CPI/PPI
GLOBAL EQUITY RISK PREMIA Global Equity Risk Premia. Tuesday, July 28, 2020. Four months after the late-March bottom, equity risk premia worldwide have all mean-reverted. In a world of extreme disequilibrium in so many ways, equities and fixed income appear to be in perfect equilibrium. Global Equity Risk Premia. Friday, April 24, 2020.DONALD L. LUSKIN
What you haven't heard about herd immunity. Tuesday, May 11, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. We can debate about vaccinations, but hard evidence of the rate of spread shows we are already there. On the April Jobs Report. Friday, May 7, 2021. Donald L. Luskin. Last year we were “running out of workers.”.DONALD LUSKIN
Donald Luskin Chief Investment Officer don@trendmacro.com Don's 40-year career as an entrepreneur, executive, investment manager and commentator has been built around his passion for the application of technology and innovation to the challenge of investing. TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 4 US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Act Now, TrendMacrocalculations
TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading How Ike's 1950s America Beat The 'Asian Flu' With Science & Common Sense Niall Ferguson Zero Hedge May 2, 2021 Southwest Airline Kicks Passenger off Flight for Eating THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THE FAILED EXPERIMENT OF COVID 1 The Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2020 The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread. TODAY'S CPI DATA: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 4 Implied 5-year inflation, 5 years forward — TIPS — Swaps — U. Michigan Survey 1/0/1900 1% 2% 3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018MEDIA APPEARANCES
Fox Business. Friday, January 17, 2020. TrendMacro CIO Donald Luskin discusses the liberal media's decision to prioritize President Trump's impeachment trial over phase one of the U.S.-China trade deal and the USMCA. Low-, middle-income Americans had higher income gains over WHAT YOU'RE NOT HEARING ABOUT WEARING MASKS TO STOP COVID State-level polling data on masking shows that it didn't lower caseloads in the summer when masks were scarce and experts were divided. But in the winter when experts were agreed and masks became available, higher levels of masking were significantly correlated with controlling case growth. Masking appears to be as effective at curbingthe
TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 3 Rolling out the vaccines in the US and the world US overall Administered % Pop % pop 53% 43% 27% 12% Age 18 to 64 59% 48% Age 65and over 89% 78%
TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 4 US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Act Now, TrendMacrocalculations
TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 3 Rolling out the vaccines in the US and the world rall AK ME 56.1% 53.8% 41.6% 54.1% 34.9% 38.5% WI VT NH 47.0% 57.1% 51.5% 45.3% 54.5% 60.0% 34.6% 36.7% 29.7% TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC 6 Recommended reading U.S. Lifts Pause on J&J’s Covid-19 Vaccine Peter Loftus Wall Street Journal April 23, 2021 India Scrambles to Supply Oxygen as Covid-19 TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC THOMAS DEMAS, MANAGING DIRECTOR 2 and severity – see “On the March Jobs Report, and Being in Recession (Whatever that Means)” April 3, 2020). • The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has never laid out an TREND MACROLYTICS, LLC THOMAS DEMAS, MANAGING DIRECTOR 3 divided Congress now that the pandemic emergency has cooled down. The S&P 500 equity risk premium is at its narrowest since the Global Financial Crisis, making stocks ripe for a long-overdue correctionwhile this
MACROCOSM CAN OIL SURVIVE IRAN AFTER ALL? 3 • With Iran working with Saudi, that could play out again. Furthermore, if a deal is done and sanctions are lifted, we would expect Iranian production to build up only gradually, as it did in 2016 (as we forecasted – see "Iran: The New New World Oil Order, Volume I" July 20, 2015). VALUING THE HOUSING RECOVERY: TRENDMACRO HOUSING 3 The deleveraged consumer: Financial obligation and debt service ratios Payments of mortgage and consumer debt, automobile leases, home rental and insurance, and property taxes Skip to main content☰ Menu
* Commentaries
* About Us
* Contact Us
* Media Appearances
* Follow Us
INSIGHTS FOR ACTION, FOR GLOBAL INVESTORS Clients, please enter here MOST RECENT COMMENTARY Corporate Covid ‘Windfalls’ Are a MythDonald L. Luskin
Wall Street Journal
Thursday, April 1, 2021 Some big companies rose to the occasion during the pandemic and did well. But there were losers too. MOST RECENT MEDIA APPEARANCE A Future of Secular StagnationWall Street Journal
Tuesday, June 1, 2021 Mr. Biden has also promised better long-term growth with his economic slogan, “Build Back Better.” But, as our contributor Donald Luskin asks, then where’s the “better” in the Biden economic forecasts? MOST RECENT CLIENT REPORT On the May Jobs Report Friday, June 4, 2021Donald L. Luskin
The good news for next month: many states are halting paying more not to work than to work. MOST RECENT DATA INSIGHTSCovid-2019
Saturday, June 5, 2021MOST RECENT VIDEO
What you're not hearing about Biden's budget Tuesday, June 1, 2021Donald L. Luskin
$3.6 trillion in new taxes, $5.0 trillion in new spending, $1.4 trillion in new debt. And lower growth. MOST RECENT RECOMMENDED READING Fauci Email Bolsters the Lab-Leak TheoryNicholas Wade
Wall Street Journal
June 4, 2021
2001 — 2021 Trend Macrolytics, LLC. All rights reserved. For information purposes only, offered as a periodical of general circulation; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy. Trend Macrolytics, TrendMacro and the stylized triangle symbol are trademarks of Trend Macrolytics, LLC.Details
Copyright © 2024 ArchiveBay.com. All rights reserved. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | DMCA | 2021 | Feedback | Advertising | RSS 2.0