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PRESS RELEASE: NIESR WEEKLY COVID-19 TRACKER Main points We report estimates of the R number and forecasts for new cases of Covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths due to Covid-19 using data that was publicly available as of 25th May 2021. In light of the low case rates (see below) this tracker will now be produced at fortnightly frequency from next week. Deaths are currently very low, so forecasts of it have been dropped. Figure 1 PRESS RELEASE: NIESR WEEKLY COVID-19 TRACKER Main points With this edition we refocus the tracker on local surges in infection to address the question whether sudden increases observed are local spikes or are indicative of the start of a new wave. Given the divergence among local areas in case rates, and surge testing in areas with high case rates, it is less meaningful to monitor the reproduction number at the level of nations or STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 2021 PRAIS LECTURE: PROFESSOR SHEILAGH OGILVIE Established in 2019, the Prais Lecture typically examines issues relating to productivity, economic growth and human wellbeing. It was formed to commemorate Professor Sig Prais, a colleague, friend and champion of the National Institute for over 60 years.NATIONAL INSTITUTE
6 hours ago · June 2021 2 National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk National Institute Monthly GDP Tracker “Like March, April was a month of rapid growth in services output, as anticipated, driven by the re-opening of non-essential retail, outdoor hospitality and near-full attendance in STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Research interests: Alex Bryson is Professor of Quantitative Social Science at UCL’s Social Research Institute, and a Research Fellow at IZA, Rutgers and NIESR. NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCHRESEARCH PROGRAMMESPUBLICATIONSBLOGSEVENTSMEDIAFORECASTS National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW The National Institute Economic Review is the peer-reviewed, quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). From 2020, the Review will be published by Cambridge University Press and is indexed in RePEc , JSTOR and Scopus. The Review archive, back to 1951, is available to subscribers. STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Research interests: Chiara Manzoni is a Senior Social Researcher at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). She is a mix-methods researcher with expertise in a range of methodologies, including ethnography. qualitative interviews, focus groups, survey design and analysis, policy and programme evaluations, evidence reviews and scenario analysis. For ten years she NIGEM : MACRO ECONOMIC MODEL, FORECASTING, ECONOMETRICECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH FOUNDATIONNATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEWACADEMIC MODEL OF EDUCATIONNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEWSOCIAL AND BEHAVIORALRESEARCH
NiGEM is a quarterly econometric model based on real economic data. Fully windows compatible, NiGEM allows you to create your own economic forecasts within a fully developed global macro model or analyse world events. NiGEM has been available since 1987 and is trusted by over forty prestigious organisations including the OECD, BoE and ECB. macro economic model. forecasting. econometric STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH 2004 – 2016 Visiting Senior Fellow, Cass Business School. 2004 - 2007 Chief Economist, Brevan Howard Asset Management. 2007 – 2010 Chief Economist, Denholm Hall Ltd. 2010 – 2011 Chief Economist, NBNK Investments Ltd. 2004 onwards Various consultancy roles with IMF. 2010 – date Specialist Adviser, House of Commons Treasury Committee. BREXIT AND THE HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE WORKFORCE IN THE UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NIESR OCCASIONAL PAPER LXI DESIGNING A NEW FISCAL FRAMEWORK i THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Occasional Paper LXI Designing a new Fiscal Framework: UnDerstanDing anD conFronting Uncertainty Edited by Jagjit S. Chadha, Hande Küçük andAdrian Pabst (eds.)
SCOTLAND'S LENDER OF LAST RESORT OPTIONS The Scottish government could, in theory, use foreign exchange and fiscal reserves to provide lender of last resort support to banks. But if the Scottish government accepts its 'fair share' of assets and liabilities, it would have small foreign exchange reserves and a high public debt burden. This paper looks at three possible solutions DOES WORKER WELLBEING AFFECT WORKPLACE PERFORMANCE? 5 Hicks, 2011). Our particular concern is with job-related SWB, however, and research in this area has tended to give most attention to measures of job satisfaction, with some attention given to NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCHRESEARCH PROGRAMMESPUBLICATIONSBLOGSEVENTSMEDIAFORECASTS National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW The National Institute Economic Review is the peer-reviewed, quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). From 2020, the Review will be published by Cambridge University Press and is indexed in RePEc , JSTOR and Scopus. The Review archive, back to 1951, is available to subscribers. STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Research interests: Chiara Manzoni is a Senior Social Researcher at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). She is a mix-methods researcher with expertise in a range of methodologies, including ethnography. qualitative interviews, focus groups, survey design and analysis, policy and programme evaluations, evidence reviews and scenario analysis. For ten years she NIGEM : MACRO ECONOMIC MODEL, FORECASTING, ECONOMETRICECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH FOUNDATIONNATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEWACADEMIC MODEL OF EDUCATIONNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEWSOCIAL AND BEHAVIORALRESEARCH
NiGEM is a quarterly econometric model based on real economic data. Fully windows compatible, NiGEM allows you to create your own economic forecasts within a fully developed global macro model or analyse world events. NiGEM has been available since 1987 and is trusted by over forty prestigious organisations including the OECD, BoE and ECB. macro economic model. forecasting. econometric STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH 2004 – 2016 Visiting Senior Fellow, Cass Business School. 2004 - 2007 Chief Economist, Brevan Howard Asset Management. 2007 – 2010 Chief Economist, Denholm Hall Ltd. 2010 – 2011 Chief Economist, NBNK Investments Ltd. 2004 onwards Various consultancy roles with IMF. 2010 – date Specialist Adviser, House of Commons Treasury Committee. BREXIT AND THE HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE WORKFORCE IN THE UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NIESR OCCASIONAL PAPER LXI DESIGNING A NEW FISCAL FRAMEWORK i THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Occasional Paper LXI Designing a new Fiscal Framework: UnDerstanDing anD conFronting Uncertainty Edited by Jagjit S. Chadha, Hande Küçük andAdrian Pabst (eds.)
SCOTLAND'S LENDER OF LAST RESORT OPTIONS The Scottish government could, in theory, use foreign exchange and fiscal reserves to provide lender of last resort support to banks. But if the Scottish government accepts its 'fair share' of assets and liabilities, it would have small foreign exchange reserves and a high public debt burden. This paper looks at three possible solutions DOES WORKER WELLBEING AFFECT WORKPLACE PERFORMANCE? 5 Hicks, 2011). Our particular concern is with job-related SWB, however, and research in this area has tended to give most attention to measures of job satisfaction, with some attention given to NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW Read here the latest Virtual Special Issue on Economic Crisis About the Review Aims and Scope Call for Papers / Submissions About the Review The National Institute Economic Review is the peer-reviewed, quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). From 2020, the Review will be published by Cambridge University Press and is indexed inTAUGHT BY EXPERTS
The course is taught by NIESR experts and the principal lecturers will be Dr Garry Young, Director of Macroeconomic Modelling; Amit Kara, Head of UK Macroeconomic Modelling; and Ian Hurst, Head of Technical and Operations from the NiGEM team at the Institute. The course is taught by NIESR forecasting experts and leading Warwick faculty. Dr Garry Young is NIESR's Director of PRESS RELEASE: NIESR WEEKLY COVID-19 TRACKER Main points We report estimates of the R number and forecasts for new cases of Covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths due to Covid-19 using data that was publicly available as of 4th May 2021. Figure 1 shows that the Reproduction number, R, for England. R is the average number of secondary infections currently generated by an infected individual, and is estimated to be in the range NIESR PRESS RELEASE: UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Our central forecast for UK economic growth in 2021 has been revised up to 5.7 per cent, compared to 3.4 per cent in February, with 4.5 per cent growth forecast for 2022. The significant upward revision reflects a better-than-expected first quarter – a greater resilience to further lockdowns – and the large rise in Covid-related public spending in the PRESS RELEASE: NIESR WEEKLY COVID-19 TRACKER Main points With this edition we refocus the tracker on local surges in infection to address the question whether sudden increases observed are local spikes or are indicative of the start of a new wave. Given the divergence among local areas in case rates, and surge testing in areas with high case rates, it is less meaningful to monitor the reproduction number at the level of nations or NIESR TERM PREMIUM TRACKER Government Bond Term Premium Tracker UK treasury yields rise due to an increase in the term premium Main points. Despite continued support from the Bank of England through low interest rates and quantitative easing, the UK 10-year bond yield has risen since last summer. EMPLOYMENT & SOCIAL POLICY Employment & Social policy. The world of work is changing. Technology, globalisation and the development of new business models are creating new jobs, types of work and contracting arrangements. Zero hours and temporary work are becoming standard practice in some industries. The workplace itself has undergone considerable transformation and isNATIONAL INSTITUTE
June 2021 2 National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk NIESR Weekly Covid-19 Tracker • At the end of our estimation sample on 28th May 2021, the R number was in the NIESR PRESS RELEASE: TERM PREMIUM TRACKER Government Bond Term Premium Tracker UK treasury yield rise due to an increase in the term premium. Main points Despite continued support from the Bank of England through low interest rates and quantitative easing, the UK 10-year bond yield has risen since last summer. As economic prospects started to improve after the successful vaccine rollout, most of the increase has been NIESR WELCOMES PROFESSOR HUW DIXON AS RESEARCH LEAD FOR The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is delighted to announce the appointment of Huw Dixon, a NIESR Fellow and Professor of Economics at Cardiff Business School, who joins today as Research Lead for Economic Measurement. Professor Dixon will further strengthen NIESR’s research team and be primarily focused on producing resilient measures of outputs and prices NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCHRESEARCH PROGRAMMESPUBLICATIONSBLOGSEVENTSMEDIAFORECASTS National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW The National Institute Economic Review is the peer-reviewed, quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). From 2020, the Review will be published by Cambridge University Press and is indexed in RePEc , JSTOR and Scopus. The Review archive, back to 1951, is available to subscribers. STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Research interests: Chiara Manzoni is a Senior Social Researcher at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). She is a mix-methods researcher with expertise in a range of methodologies, including ethnography. qualitative interviews, focus groups, survey design and analysis, policy and programme evaluations, evidence reviews and scenario analysis. For ten years she NIGEM : MACRO ECONOMIC MODEL, FORECASTING, ECONOMETRICECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH FOUNDATIONNATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEWACADEMIC MODEL OF EDUCATIONNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEWSOCIAL AND BEHAVIORALRESEARCH
NiGEM is a quarterly econometric model based on real economic data. Fully windows compatible, NiGEM allows you to create your own economic forecasts within a fully developed global macro model or analyse world events. NiGEM has been available since 1987 and is trusted by over forty prestigious organisations including the OECD, BoE and ECB. macro economic model. forecasting. econometric STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH 2004 – 2016 Visiting Senior Fellow, Cass Business School. 2004 - 2007 Chief Economist, Brevan Howard Asset Management. 2007 – 2010 Chief Economist, Denholm Hall Ltd. 2010 – 2011 Chief Economist, NBNK Investments Ltd. 2004 onwards Various consultancy roles with IMF. 2010 – date Specialist Adviser, House of Commons Treasury Committee. BREXIT AND THE HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE WORKFORCE IN THE UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NIESR OCCASIONAL PAPER LXI DESIGNING A NEW FISCAL FRAMEWORK i THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Occasional Paper LXI Designing a new Fiscal Framework: UnDerstanDing anD conFronting Uncertainty Edited by Jagjit S. Chadha, Hande Küçük andAdrian Pabst (eds.)
SCOTLAND'S LENDER OF LAST RESORT OPTIONS The Scottish government could, in theory, use foreign exchange and fiscal reserves to provide lender of last resort support to banks. But if the Scottish government accepts its 'fair share' of assets and liabilities, it would have small foreign exchange reserves and a high public debt burden. This paper looks at three possible solutions DOES WORKER WELLBEING AFFECT WORKPLACE PERFORMANCE? 5 Hicks, 2011). Our particular concern is with job-related SWB, however, and research in this area has tended to give most attention to measures of job satisfaction, with some attention given to NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCHRESEARCH PROGRAMMESPUBLICATIONSBLOGSEVENTSMEDIAFORECASTS National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW The National Institute Economic Review is the peer-reviewed, quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). From 2020, the Review will be published by Cambridge University Press and is indexed in RePEc , JSTOR and Scopus. The Review archive, back to 1951, is available to subscribers. STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Research interests: Chiara Manzoni is a Senior Social Researcher at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). She is a mix-methods researcher with expertise in a range of methodologies, including ethnography. qualitative interviews, focus groups, survey design and analysis, policy and programme evaluations, evidence reviews and scenario analysis. For ten years she NIGEM : MACRO ECONOMIC MODEL, FORECASTING, ECONOMETRICECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH FOUNDATIONNATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEWACADEMIC MODEL OF EDUCATIONNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEWSOCIAL AND BEHAVIORALRESEARCH
NiGEM is a quarterly econometric model based on real economic data. Fully windows compatible, NiGEM allows you to create your own economic forecasts within a fully developed global macro model or analyse world events. NiGEM has been available since 1987 and is trusted by over forty prestigious organisations including the OECD, BoE and ECB. macro economic model. forecasting. econometric STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH 2004 – 2016 Visiting Senior Fellow, Cass Business School. 2004 - 2007 Chief Economist, Brevan Howard Asset Management. 2007 – 2010 Chief Economist, Denholm Hall Ltd. 2010 – 2011 Chief Economist, NBNK Investments Ltd. 2004 onwards Various consultancy roles with IMF. 2010 – date Specialist Adviser, House of Commons Treasury Committee. BREXIT AND THE HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE WORKFORCE IN THE UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NIESR OCCASIONAL PAPER LXI DESIGNING A NEW FISCAL FRAMEWORK i THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Occasional Paper LXI Designing a new Fiscal Framework: UnDerstanDing anD conFronting Uncertainty Edited by Jagjit S. Chadha, Hande Küçük andAdrian Pabst (eds.)
SCOTLAND'S LENDER OF LAST RESORT OPTIONS The Scottish government could, in theory, use foreign exchange and fiscal reserves to provide lender of last resort support to banks. But if the Scottish government accepts its 'fair share' of assets and liabilities, it would have small foreign exchange reserves and a high public debt burden. This paper looks at three possible solutions DOES WORKER WELLBEING AFFECT WORKPLACE PERFORMANCE? 5 Hicks, 2011). Our particular concern is with job-related SWB, however, and research in this area has tended to give most attention to measures of job satisfaction, with some attention given to NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW Read here the latest Virtual Special Issue on Economic Crisis About the Review Aims and Scope Call for Papers / Submissions About the Review The National Institute Economic Review is the peer-reviewed, quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). From 2020, the Review will be published by Cambridge University Press and is indexed inTAUGHT BY EXPERTS
The course is taught by NIESR experts and the principal lecturers will be Dr Garry Young, Director of Macroeconomic Modelling; Amit Kara, Head of UK Macroeconomic Modelling; and Ian Hurst, Head of Technical and Operations from the NiGEM team at the Institute. The course is taught by NIESR forecasting experts and leading Warwick faculty. Dr Garry Young is NIESR's Director of PRESS RELEASE: NIESR WEEKLY COVID-19 TRACKER Main points We report estimates of the R number and forecasts for new cases of Covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths due to Covid-19 using data that was publicly available as of 4th May 2021. Figure 1 shows that the Reproduction number, R, for England. R is the average number of secondary infections currently generated by an infected individual, and is estimated to be in the range NIESR PRESS RELEASE: UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Our central forecast for UK economic growth in 2021 has been revised up to 5.7 per cent, compared to 3.4 per cent in February, with 4.5 per cent growth forecast for 2022. The significant upward revision reflects a better-than-expected first quarter – a greater resilience to further lockdowns – and the large rise in Covid-related public spending in the PRESS RELEASE: NIESR WEEKLY COVID-19 TRACKER Main points With this edition we refocus the tracker on local surges in infection to address the question whether sudden increases observed are local spikes or are indicative of the start of a new wave. Given the divergence among local areas in case rates, and surge testing in areas with high case rates, it is less meaningful to monitor the reproduction number at the level of nations or NIESR TERM PREMIUM TRACKER Government Bond Term Premium Tracker UK treasury yields rise due to an increase in the term premium Main points. Despite continued support from the Bank of England through low interest rates and quantitative easing, the UK 10-year bond yield has risen since last summer. EMPLOYMENT & SOCIAL POLICY Employment & Social policy. The world of work is changing. Technology, globalisation and the development of new business models are creating new jobs, types of work and contracting arrangements. Zero hours and temporary work are becoming standard practice in some industries. The workplace itself has undergone considerable transformation and isNATIONAL INSTITUTE
June 2021 2 National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk NIESR Weekly Covid-19 Tracker • At the end of our estimation sample on 28th May 2021, the R number was in the NIESR PRESS RELEASE: TERM PREMIUM TRACKER Government Bond Term Premium Tracker UK treasury yield rise due to an increase in the term premium. Main points Despite continued support from the Bank of England through low interest rates and quantitative easing, the UK 10-year bond yield has risen since last summer. As economic prospects started to improve after the successful vaccine rollout, most of the increase has been NIESR WELCOMES PROFESSOR HUW DIXON AS RESEARCH LEAD FOR The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is delighted to announce the appointment of Huw Dixon, a NIESR Fellow and Professor of Economics at Cardiff Business School, who joins today as Research Lead for Economic Measurement. Professor Dixon will further strengthen NIESR’s research team and be primarily focused on producing resilient measures of outputs and prices NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCHRESEARCH PROGRAMMESPUBLICATIONSBLOGSEVENTSMEDIAFORECASTS National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Research interests: Chiara Manzoni is a Senior Social Researcher at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). She is a mix-methods researcher with expertise in a range of methodologies, including ethnography. qualitative interviews, focus groups, survey design and analysis, policy and programme evaluations, evidence reviews and scenario analysis. For ten years she NIGEM : MACRO ECONOMIC MODEL, FORECASTING, ECONOMETRICECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH FOUNDATIONNATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEWACADEMIC MODEL OF EDUCATIONNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEWSOCIAL AND BEHAVIORALRESEARCH
NiGEM is a quarterly econometric model based on real economic data. Fully windows compatible, NiGEM allows you to create your own economic forecasts within a fully developed global macro model or analyse world events. NiGEM has been available since 1987 and is trusted by over forty prestigious organisations including the OECD, BoE and ECB. macro economic model. forecasting. econometric STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH 2004 – 2016 Visiting Senior Fellow, Cass Business School. 2004 - 2007 Chief Economist, Brevan Howard Asset Management. 2007 – 2010 Chief Economist, Denholm Hall Ltd. 2010 – 2011 Chief Economist, NBNK Investments Ltd. 2004 onwards Various consultancy roles with IMF. 2010 – date Specialist Adviser, House of Commons Treasury Committee. BREXIT AND THE HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE WORKFORCE IN THE UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NIESR OCCASIONAL PAPER LXI DESIGNING A NEW FISCAL FRAMEWORK i THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Occasional Paper LXI Designing a new Fiscal Framework: UnDerstanDing anD conFronting Uncertainty Edited by Jagjit S. Chadha, Hande Küçük andAdrian Pabst (eds.)
BREXIT AND THE EURO
II. INTEGRATION, SYMMETRY AND STABILITY Sharing a currency is an obvious way to deepen integration. The main research question driving the optimal currency areas (OCA) scholarship regards the costs and benefits of sharing a SCOTLAND'S LENDER OF LAST RESORT OPTIONS The Scottish government could, in theory, use foreign exchange and fiscal reserves to provide lender of last resort support to banks. But if the Scottish government accepts its 'fair share' of assets and liabilities, it would have small foreign exchange reserves and a high public debt burden. This paper looks at three possible solutions NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCHRESEARCH PROGRAMMESPUBLICATIONSBLOGSEVENTSMEDIAFORECASTS National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Research interests: Chiara Manzoni is a Senior Social Researcher at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). She is a mix-methods researcher with expertise in a range of methodologies, including ethnography. qualitative interviews, focus groups, survey design and analysis, policy and programme evaluations, evidence reviews and scenario analysis. For ten years she NIGEM : MACRO ECONOMIC MODEL, FORECASTING, ECONOMETRICECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH FOUNDATIONNATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEWACADEMIC MODEL OF EDUCATIONNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEWSOCIAL AND BEHAVIORALRESEARCH
NiGEM is a quarterly econometric model based on real economic data. Fully windows compatible, NiGEM allows you to create your own economic forecasts within a fully developed global macro model or analyse world events. NiGEM has been available since 1987 and is trusted by over forty prestigious organisations including the OECD, BoE and ECB. macro economic model. forecasting. econometric STAFF | NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH 2004 – 2016 Visiting Senior Fellow, Cass Business School. 2004 - 2007 Chief Economist, Brevan Howard Asset Management. 2007 – 2010 Chief Economist, Denholm Hall Ltd. 2010 – 2011 Chief Economist, NBNK Investments Ltd. 2004 onwards Various consultancy roles with IMF. 2010 – date Specialist Adviser, House of Commons Treasury Committee. BREXIT AND THE HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE WORKFORCE IN THE UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research. 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square London, SW1P 3HE United Kingdom +44 (0) 207 222 7665. Registered Charity #306083 NIESR OCCASIONAL PAPER LXI DESIGNING A NEW FISCAL FRAMEWORK i THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Occasional Paper LXI Designing a new Fiscal Framework: UnDerstanDing anD conFronting Uncertainty Edited by Jagjit S. Chadha, Hande Küçük andAdrian Pabst (eds.)
BREXIT AND THE EURO
II. INTEGRATION, SYMMETRY AND STABILITY Sharing a currency is an obvious way to deepen integration. The main research question driving the optimal currency areas (OCA) scholarship regards the costs and benefits of sharing a SCOTLAND'S LENDER OF LAST RESORT OPTIONS The Scottish government could, in theory, use foreign exchange and fiscal reserves to provide lender of last resort support to banks. But if the Scottish government accepts its 'fair share' of assets and liabilities, it would have small foreign exchange reserves and a high public debt burden. This paper looks at three possible solutions NATIONAL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC REVIEW The National Institute Economic Review is the peer-reviewed, quarterly publication of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). From 2020, the Review will be published by Cambridge University Press and is indexed in RePEc , JSTOR and Scopus. The Review archive, back to 1951, is available to subscribers.TAUGHT BY EXPERTS
The course is taught by NIESR experts and the principal lecturers will be Dr Garry Young, Director of Macroeconomic Modelling; Amit Kara, Head of UK Macroeconomic Modelling; and Ian Hurst, Head of Technical and Operations from the NiGEM team at the Institute. The course is taught by NIESR forecasting experts and leading Warwick faculty. Dr Garry Young is NIESR's Director of PRESS RELEASE: NIESR WEEKLY COVID-19 TRACKER Figure 3 - UK forecast of new COVID-19 cases Main points We report estimates of the R number and forecasts for new cases of Covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths due to Covid-19 using data that was publicly available as on 13th April 2021. SAGE has declared that due to the “increasing localised nature to managing the epidemic, particularly between nations” the UK wide estimate is less PRESS RELEASE: NIESR WEEKLY COVID-19 TRACKER Main points With this edition we refocus the tracker on local surges in infection to address the question whether sudden increases observed are local spikes or are indicative of the start of a new wave. Given the divergence among local areas in case rates, and surge testing in areas with high case rates, it is less meaningful to monitor the reproduction number at the level of nations or NIESR PRESS RELEASE: UK ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Our central forecast for UK economic growth in 2021 has been revised up to 5.7 per cent, compared to 3.4 per cent in February, with 4.5 per cent growth forecast for 2022. The significant upward revision reflects a better-than-expected first quarter – a greater resilience to further lockdowns – and the large rise in Covid-related public spending in the LATEST TERM PREMIUM TRACKER Government Bond Term Premium Tracker UK treasury yield rise due to an increase in the term premium. Main points Despite continued support from the Bank of England through low interest rates and quantitative easing, the UK 10-year bond yield has risen since last summer. As economic prospects started to improve after the successful vaccine rollout, most of the increase has beenNATIONAL INSTITUTE
June 2021 2 National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk NIESR Weekly Covid-19 Tracker • At the end of our estimation sample on 28th May 2021, the R number was in the EMPLOYMENT & SOCIAL POLICY Employment & Social policy. The world of work is changing. Technology, globalisation and the development of new business models are creating new jobs, types of work and contracting arrangements. Zero hours and temporary work are becoming standard practice in some industries. The workplace itself has undergone considerable transformation and is NIESR PRESS RELEASE: TERM PREMIUM TRACKER Government Bond Term Premium Tracker UK treasury yield rise due to an increase in the term premium. Main points Despite continued support from the Bank of England through low interest rates and quantitative easing, the UK 10-year bond yield has risen since last summer. As economic prospects started to improve after the successful vaccine rollout, most of the increase has beenNATIONAL INSTITUTE
June 2021 2 National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk NIESR Term Premium Tracker risk) premium is the compensation investors require for bearing the risk that Skip to main contentNational
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