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CLIMATE ETC.
By Nic Lewis. An important paper, Wang et al., on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published.The key conclusion of the paper is: The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models and NORTH ATLANTIC NONSENSE North Atlantic Nonsense. “ Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades “. This announcement from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was headlined recently in my morning newspaper in France (and indozens of
THE TOXIC RHETORIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource. Climate change — manmade and/or natural — along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern. However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical. CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST ENERGY by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a key issue for estimating climate sensitivity. If EEI is positive then the Earth’s climate system gains energy; if it’s negative the system loses energy, largely due to the energy flow into or out of the CO2 NO-FEEDBACK SENSITIVITY by Judith Curry The IPCC defines climate sensitivity as "a metric used to characterise the response of the global climate system to a given forcing. It is broadly defined as the equilibrium global mean surface temperature change following a doubling of atmospheric CO2concentration." The no feedback sensitivity is the direct response of the surface temperature HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN ARCTIC SEA ICE. PART II: 1920-1950 Historic variations in Arctic sea ice is a series that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. Part 1 covered the warm period from approx. 1816 to 1860. This paper – Part 2 – examines the period of warming 1920-1940 with a decade long overlap. HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN SEA LEVELS. PART 1: FROM THE Historic variations in sea levels. Part 1: From the Holocene to Romans | Climate Etc. Historic variations in sea levels. Part 1: From the Holocene to Romans. The IPCC AR4 projected sea level rise in 2100 to range from 18-59 cm, depending on the emission scenario. More recent projections are for a 1 m sea level rise in 2100 . THE UNCERTAINTY MONSTER The “uncertainty monster” is a concept introduced by van der Sluijs (2005) in an analysis of the different ways that the scientific community responds to uncertainties that are difficult to cope with. A monster is understood as a phenomenon that at the same moment fits into two categories that were considered to be mutually excluding. ARE THE DEEP OCEANS COOLING? by Judith Curry Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause" in warming. - Wunsch and Heimbach For context, see these two previous posts at Climate Etc.:Has
A CLOSER LOOK AT SCENARIO RCP8.5 A closer look at scenario RCP8.5. The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides the basis for these: RCP8.5.CLIMATE ETC.
By Nic Lewis. An important paper, Wang et al., on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published.The key conclusion of the paper is: The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models andWEEK IN REVIEW
Week in review – science edition. A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks. A new study finds a large, previously unknown contribution to climate change through human conversion of peatlands for agriculture Accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy alters wind climate and reduces future power generation [ link NORTH ATLANTIC NONSENSE North Atlantic Nonsense. “ Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades “. This announcement from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was headlined recently in my morning newspaper in France (and indozens of
THE TOXIC RHETORIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource. Climate change — manmade and/or natural — along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern. However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical. CO2 NO-FEEDBACK SENSITIVITY by Judith Curry The IPCC defines climate sensitivity as "a metric used to characterise the response of the global climate system to a given forcing. It is broadly defined as the equilibrium global mean surface temperature change following a doubling of atmospheric CO2concentration." The no feedback sensitivity is the direct response of the surface temperature CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST ENERGY by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a key issue for estimating climate sensitivity. If EEI is positive then the Earth’s climate system gains energy; if it’s negative the system loses energy, largely due to the energy flow into or out of the HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN ARCTIC SEA ICE. PART II: 1920-1950 Historic variations in Arctic sea ice is a series that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. Part 1 covered the warm period from approx. 1816 to 1860. This paper – Part 2 – examines the period of warming 1920-1940 with a decade long overlap. HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN SEA LEVELS. PART 1: FROM THE Historic variations in sea levels. Part 1: From the Holocene to Romans | Climate Etc. Historic variations in sea levels. Part 1: From the Holocene to Romans. The IPCC AR4 projected sea level rise in 2100 to range from 18-59 cm, depending on the emission scenario. More recent projections are for a 1 m sea level rise in 2100 . THE UNCERTAINTY MONSTER The “uncertainty monster” is a concept introduced by van der Sluijs (2005) in an analysis of the different ways that the scientific community responds to uncertainties that are difficult to cope with. A monster is understood as a phenomenon that at the same moment fits into two categories that were considered to be mutually excluding. A CLOSER LOOK AT SCENARIO RCP8.5 A closer look at scenario RCP8.5. The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides the basis for these: RCP8.5.WEEK IN REVIEW
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks. A new study finds a large, previously unknown contribution to climate change through human conversion of peatlands for agriculture Accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy alters wind climate and reduces future power generation Reducing uncertainty in contrail radiative forcing ABOUT | CLIMATE ETC. Climate Etc. provides a forum for climate researchers, academics and technical experts from other fields, citizen scientists, and the interested public to engage in a discussion on topics related to climate science and the science-policy interface. You are free to share or remix anything from Climate Etc., following the guidelines ofCreative Commons.
DEATH SPIRAL OF AMERICAN ACADEMIA by Patrick J Michaels Earlier this year, Eric Kaufmann of the University of London published a remarkably detailed and comprehensive study of bias in academia, “Academic Freedom in Crisis: Punishment, Political Discrimination, and Self-Censorship.” Kaufmann’s writing is a product of California’s Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology, a small think-tank set up to do research COLLAPSE OF THE FAKE CONSENSUS ON COVID-19 ORIGINS by Judith Curry The concerning saga of the creation, enforcement and collapse of a 'consensus' on Covid-19 origins. The Covid-19 virus first appeared in Wuhan, China, where there is a laboratory that conducts research on bat coronaviruses. However from the beginning, the possibility that this virus accidentally escaped from the lab was dismissed quite forcefully NORTH ATLANTIC NONSENSE North Atlantic Nonsense. “ Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades “. This announcement from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was headlined recently in my morning newspaper in France (and indozens of
CLIMATE ETC.
by Judith Curry. On Tuesday June 25, I will be testifying before the House Oversight and Reform Environmental Subcommittee in a Hearing on Recovery, Resilience and Readiness – Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change.. Continue reading →CLIMATE ETC.
by Planning Engineer and Jill Tietjen. The power system is a matter of extreme importance relating to economic development, quality of life as well as health and safety. CONSENSUS | CLIMATE ETC. by Andy West. A frequent topic at Climate Etc. is the ‘consensus.’. An argument is presented here that the climate consensus is as much about culture as it is about climate science. Continue reading →. 274 Comments. Posted in Consensus, Sociology ofscience.
CO2 SENSITIVITY: THE POLAR SOLUTION by Alan Longhurst Natural climate variability in the polar regions. If our planet had been designed with comparative high-latitude studies in mind, it couldn’t have been better arranged than it is. The 700N parallel encloses extensive continental regions that were once ecologically rich forest and grassland but now support agriculture, stock raising and urbanisation. ESCAPE FROM MODEL LAND Escape from model land. “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.”. – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith. The title and motivation for this post comes from a new paper by Erica Thompson andLenny Smith
CLIMATE ETC.
By Nic Lewis. An important paper, Wang et al., on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published.The key conclusion of the paper is: The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models and NORTH ATLANTIC NONSENSE North Atlantic Nonsense. “ Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades “. This announcement from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was headlined recently in my morning newspaper in France (and indozens of
THE TOXIC RHETORIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource. Climate change — manmade and/or natural — along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern. However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical. CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST ENERGY by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a key issue for estimating climate sensitivity. If EEI is positive then the Earth’s climate system gains energy; if it’s negative the system loses energy, largely due to the energy flow into or out of the CO2 NO-FEEDBACK SENSITIVITY by Judith Curry The IPCC defines climate sensitivity as "a metric used to characterise the response of the global climate system to a given forcing. It is broadly defined as the equilibrium global mean surface temperature change following a doubling of atmospheric CO2concentration." The no feedback sensitivity is the direct response of the surface temperature HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN ARCTIC SEA ICE. PART II: 1920-1950 Historic variations in Arctic sea ice is a series that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. Part 1 covered the warm period from approx. 1816 to 1860. This paper – Part 2 – examines the period of warming 1920-1940 with a decade long overlap. HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN SEA LEVELS. PART 1: FROM THE Historic variations in sea levels. Part 1: From the Holocene to Romans | Climate Etc. Historic variations in sea levels. Part 1: From the Holocene to Romans. The IPCC AR4 projected sea level rise in 2100 to range from 18-59 cm, depending on the emission scenario. More recent projections are for a 1 m sea level rise in 2100 . THE UNCERTAINTY MONSTER The “uncertainty monster” is a concept introduced by van der Sluijs (2005) in an analysis of the different ways that the scientific community responds to uncertainties that are difficult to cope with. A monster is understood as a phenomenon that at the same moment fits into two categories that were considered to be mutually excluding. ARE THE DEEP OCEANS COOLING? by Judith Curry Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause" in warming. - Wunsch and Heimbach For context, see these two previous posts at Climate Etc.:Has
A CLOSER LOOK AT SCENARIO RCP8.5 A closer look at scenario RCP8.5. The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides the basis for these: RCP8.5.CLIMATE ETC.
By Nic Lewis. An important paper, Wang et al., on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published.The key conclusion of the paper is: The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models and NORTH ATLANTIC NONSENSE North Atlantic Nonsense. “ Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades “. This announcement from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was headlined recently in my morning newspaper in France (and indozens of
THE TOXIC RHETORIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource. Climate change — manmade and/or natural — along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern. However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical. CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST ENERGY by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a key issue for estimating climate sensitivity. If EEI is positive then the Earth’s climate system gains energy; if it’s negative the system loses energy, largely due to the energy flow into or out of the CO2 NO-FEEDBACK SENSITIVITY by Judith Curry The IPCC defines climate sensitivity as "a metric used to characterise the response of the global climate system to a given forcing. It is broadly defined as the equilibrium global mean surface temperature change following a doubling of atmospheric CO2concentration." The no feedback sensitivity is the direct response of the surface temperature HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN ARCTIC SEA ICE. PART II: 1920-1950 Historic variations in Arctic sea ice is a series that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. Part 1 covered the warm period from approx. 1816 to 1860. This paper – Part 2 – examines the period of warming 1920-1940 with a decade long overlap. HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN SEA LEVELS. PART 1: FROM THE Historic variations in sea levels. Part 1: From the Holocene to Romans | Climate Etc. Historic variations in sea levels. Part 1: From the Holocene to Romans. The IPCC AR4 projected sea level rise in 2100 to range from 18-59 cm, depending on the emission scenario. More recent projections are for a 1 m sea level rise in 2100 . THE UNCERTAINTY MONSTER The “uncertainty monster” is a concept introduced by van der Sluijs (2005) in an analysis of the different ways that the scientific community responds to uncertainties that are difficult to cope with. A monster is understood as a phenomenon that at the same moment fits into two categories that were considered to be mutually excluding. ARE THE DEEP OCEANS COOLING? by Judith Curry Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause" in warming. - Wunsch and Heimbach For context, see these two previous posts at Climate Etc.:Has
A CLOSER LOOK AT SCENARIO RCP8.5 A closer look at scenario RCP8.5. The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris climate was preceded by a surge of studies and articles warning of a dismal future if we do not take strong policy action. One scenario in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides the basis for these: RCP8.5.WEEK IN REVIEW
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks. A new study finds a large, previously unknown contribution to climate change through human conversion of peatlands for agriculture Accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy alters wind climate and reduces future power generation Reducing uncertainty in contrail radiative forcing ABOUT | CLIMATE ETC. Climate Etc. provides a forum for climate researchers, academics and technical experts from other fields, citizen scientists, and the interested public to engage in a discussion on topics related to climate science and the science-policy interface. You are free to share or remix anything from Climate Etc., following the guidelines ofCreative Commons.
DEATH SPIRAL OF AMERICAN ACADEMIA by Patrick J Michaels Earlier this year, Eric Kaufmann of the University of London published a remarkably detailed and comprehensive study of bias in academia, “Academic Freedom in Crisis: Punishment, Political Discrimination, and Self-Censorship.” Kaufmann’s writing is a product of California’s Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology, a small think-tank set up to do research COLLAPSE OF THE FAKE CONSENSUS ON COVID-19 ORIGINS by Judith Curry The concerning saga of the creation, enforcement and collapse of a 'consensus' on Covid-19 origins. The Covid-19 virus first appeared in Wuhan, China, where there is a laboratory that conducts research on bat coronaviruses. However from the beginning, the possibility that this virus accidentally escaped from the lab was dismissed quite forcefully NORTH ATLANTIC NONSENSE North Atlantic Nonsense. “ Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades “. This announcement from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was headlined recently in my morning newspaper in France (and indozens of
CLIMATE ETC.
by Judith Curry. On Tuesday June 25, I will be testifying before the House Oversight and Reform Environmental Subcommittee in a Hearing on Recovery, Resilience and Readiness – Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change.. Continue reading →CLIMATE ETC.
by Planning Engineer and Jill Tietjen. The power system is a matter of extreme importance relating to economic development, quality of life as well as health and safety. CONSENSUS | CLIMATE ETC. by Andy West. A frequent topic at Climate Etc. is the ‘consensus.’. An argument is presented here that the climate consensus is as much about culture as it is about climate science. Continue reading →. 274 Comments. Posted in Consensus, Sociology ofscience.
CO2 SENSITIVITY: THE POLAR SOLUTION by Alan Longhurst Natural climate variability in the polar regions. If our planet had been designed with comparative high-latitude studies in mind, it couldn’t have been better arranged than it is. The 700N parallel encloses extensive continental regions that were once ecologically rich forest and grassland but now support agriculture, stock raising and urbanisation. ESCAPE FROM MODEL LAND Escape from model land. “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.”. – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith. The title and motivation for this post comes from a new paper by Erica Thompson andLenny Smith
CLIMATE ETC.
By Nic Lewis. An important paper, Wang et al., on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published.The key conclusion of the paper is: The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models and THE TOXIC RHETORIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource. Climate change — manmade and/or natural — along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern. However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical. CO2 NO-FEEDBACK SENSITIVITY by Judith Curry The IPCC defines climate sensitivity as "a metric used to characterise the response of the global climate system to a given forcing. It is broadly defined as the equilibrium global mean surface temperature change following a doubling of atmospheric CO2concentration." The no feedback sensitivity is the direct response of the surface temperature CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST ENERGYCLIMATE ETC CURRYGEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JUDITH CURRY by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a key issue for estimating climate sensitivity. If EEI is positive then the Earth’s climate system gains energy; if it’s negative the system loses energy, largely due to the energy flow into or out of the THE UNCERTAINTY MONSTER The “uncertainty monster” is a concept introduced by van der Sluijs (2005) in an analysis of the different ways that the scientific community responds to uncertainties that are difficult to cope with. A monster is understood as a phenomenon that at the same moment fits into two categories that were considered to be mutually excluding. ARE THE DEEP OCEANS COOLING? by Judith Curry Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause" in warming. - Wunsch and Heimbach For context, see these two previous posts at Climate Etc.:Has
HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN ARCTIC SEA ICE. PART II: 1920-1950ARCTIC SEA ICE AND NEWSARCTIC SEA ICE LEVELS HISTORY Historic variations in Arctic sea ice is a series that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. Part 1 covered the warm period from approx. 1816 to 1860. This paper – Part 2 – examines the period of warming 1920-1940 with a decade long overlap. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SURPRISES Ocean Heat Content Surprises. There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications. The first paper has a narrative that ‘the oceans are warming faster than we thought and now the ocean warming matches the climate model simulations’: “Climate change from human ‘MOST’ VERSUS ‘MORE THAN HALF’ VERSUS ‘> 50%’ Most: greatest in amount or degree; the majority of. Half: one of two equal or approximately parts of a divisible whole, as an object, or unit of measure or time; a part of a whole equal to the remainder. Legal definition of more than half: majority. Majority: A majority is a subset of a set consisting of more than half of the set’selements.
IMPACT OF THE ~ 2400 YR SOLAR CYCLE ON CLIMATE AND HUMAN Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies. *by Javier. The role of solar variability on climate change, despite having a very long scientific tradition, is currently downplayed as a climatic factor within the most popular hypothesis for climate change. As the root of this neglect lie two fundamental problems.CLIMATE ETC.
By Nic Lewis. An important paper, Wang et al., on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published.The key conclusion of the paper is: The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models and THE TOXIC RHETORIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource. Climate change — manmade and/or natural — along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern. However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical. CO2 NO-FEEDBACK SENSITIVITY by Judith Curry The IPCC defines climate sensitivity as "a metric used to characterise the response of the global climate system to a given forcing. It is broadly defined as the equilibrium global mean surface temperature change following a doubling of atmospheric CO2concentration." The no feedback sensitivity is the direct response of the surface temperature CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST ENERGYCLIMATE ETC CURRYGEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JUDITH CURRY by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a key issue for estimating climate sensitivity. If EEI is positive then the Earth’s climate system gains energy; if it’s negative the system loses energy, largely due to the energy flow into or out of the THE UNCERTAINTY MONSTER The “uncertainty monster” is a concept introduced by van der Sluijs (2005) in an analysis of the different ways that the scientific community responds to uncertainties that are difficult to cope with. A monster is understood as a phenomenon that at the same moment fits into two categories that were considered to be mutually excluding. ARE THE DEEP OCEANS COOLING? by Judith Curry Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause" in warming. - Wunsch and Heimbach For context, see these two previous posts at Climate Etc.:Has
HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN ARCTIC SEA ICE. PART II: 1920-1950ARCTIC SEA ICE AND NEWSARCTIC SEA ICE LEVELS HISTORY Historic variations in Arctic sea ice is a series that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. Part 1 covered the warm period from approx. 1816 to 1860. This paper – Part 2 – examines the period of warming 1920-1940 with a decade long overlap. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SURPRISES Ocean Heat Content Surprises. There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications. The first paper has a narrative that ‘the oceans are warming faster than we thought and now the ocean warming matches the climate model simulations’: “Climate change from human ‘MOST’ VERSUS ‘MORE THAN HALF’ VERSUS ‘> 50%’ Most: greatest in amount or degree; the majority of. Half: one of two equal or approximately parts of a divisible whole, as an object, or unit of measure or time; a part of a whole equal to the remainder. Legal definition of more than half: majority. Majority: A majority is a subset of a set consisting of more than half of the set’selements.
IMPACT OF THE ~ 2400 YR SOLAR CYCLE ON CLIMATE AND HUMAN Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies. *by Javier. The role of solar variability on climate change, despite having a very long scientific tradition, is currently downplayed as a climatic factor within the most popular hypothesis for climate change. As the root of this neglect lie two fundamental problems.WEEK IN REVIEW
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks. A new study finds a large, previously unknown contribution to climate change through human conversion of peatlands for agriculture Accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy alters wind climate and reduces future power generation Reducing uncertainty in contrail radiative forcing ABOUT | CLIMATE ETC. Climate Etc. provides a forum for climate researchers, academics and technical experts from other fields, citizen scientists, and the interested public to engage in a discussion on topics related to climate science and the science-policy interface. You are free to share or remix anything from Climate Etc., following the guidelines ofCreative Commons.
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES: GLOBAL WARMING CONSENSUS THINKING by Geoffrey Weiss and Claude Roessiger The so-called debate about the causes and effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a notable irony. Rather than a forum for free disputation, AGW has in recent years become the site of a consensus equating majority opinion with truth—leaving little, if any, room for debate. After all, doesn't NORTH ATLANTIC NONSENSE North Atlantic Nonsense. “ Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades “. This announcement from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was headlined recently in my morning newspaper in France (and indozens of
CLIMATE ETC.
A new variant, B.1.1.7, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has recently spread rapidly in England. The public health agency’s best estimate of B.1.1.7’s weekly growth rate advantage is 1.51x. They mis-convert this in a reproduction number ratio of 1.47; converting appropriately gives a ratio of 1.25. CONSENSUS | CLIMATE ETC. The paradox of the climate change consensus. In our view, the fact that so many scientists agree so closely about the earth’s warming is, itself, evidence of a lack of evidence for global warming. – D. Ryan Brumberg and MatthewBrumberg.
CLIMATE ETC.
by Judith Curry. On Tuesday June 25, I will be testifying before the House Oversight and Reform Environmental Subcommittee in a Hearing on Recovery, Resilience and Readiness – Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change.. Continue reading → PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE: 2020-2050 Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050. A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act in the direction of cooling duringthis period.
ESCAPE FROM MODEL LAND Escape from model land. “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.”. – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith. The title and motivation for this post comes from a new paper by Erica Thompson andLenny Smith
MESSES AND SUPER WICKED PROBLEMS Kelly Levin, Benjamin Cashore, Steven Bernstein and Graeme Auld introduced in 2007 the distinction between “wicked” and “super wicked problems”. They first presented International Studies Association Convention in Chicago, February 28 – March 3, 2007. They presented a revised version of the paper to the Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions Congress, 10–12 MarchCLIMATE ETC.
By Nic Lewis. An important paper, Wang et al., on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published.The key conclusion of the paper is: The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models and THE TOXIC RHETORIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource. Climate change — manmade and/or natural — along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern. However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical. CO2 NO-FEEDBACK SENSITIVITY by Judith Curry The IPCC defines climate sensitivity as "a metric used to characterise the response of the global climate system to a given forcing. It is broadly defined as the equilibrium global mean surface temperature change following a doubling of atmospheric CO2concentration." The no feedback sensitivity is the direct response of the surface temperature CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST ENERGYCLIMATE ETC CURRYGEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JUDITH CURRY by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a key issue for estimating climate sensitivity. If EEI is positive then the Earth’s climate system gains energy; if it’s negative the system loses energy, largely due to the energy flow into or out of the THE UNCERTAINTY MONSTER The “uncertainty monster” is a concept introduced by van der Sluijs (2005) in an analysis of the different ways that the scientific community responds to uncertainties that are difficult to cope with. A monster is understood as a phenomenon that at the same moment fits into two categories that were considered to be mutually excluding. ARE THE DEEP OCEANS COOLING? by Judith Curry Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause" in warming. - Wunsch and Heimbach For context, see these two previous posts at Climate Etc.:Has
HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN ARCTIC SEA ICE. PART II: 1920-1950ARCTIC SEA ICE AND NEWSARCTIC SEA ICE LEVELS HISTORY Historic variations in Arctic sea ice is a series that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. Part 1 covered the warm period from approx. 1816 to 1860. This paper – Part 2 – examines the period of warming 1920-1940 with a decade long overlap. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SURPRISES Ocean Heat Content Surprises. There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications. The first paper has a narrative that ‘the oceans are warming faster than we thought and now the ocean warming matches the climate model simulations’: “Climate change from human ‘MOST’ VERSUS ‘MORE THAN HALF’ VERSUS ‘> 50%’ Most: greatest in amount or degree; the majority of. Half: one of two equal or approximately parts of a divisible whole, as an object, or unit of measure or time; a part of a whole equal to the remainder. Legal definition of more than half: majority. Majority: A majority is a subset of a set consisting of more than half of the set’selements.
IMPACT OF THE ~ 2400 YR SOLAR CYCLE ON CLIMATE AND HUMAN Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies. *by Javier. The role of solar variability on climate change, despite having a very long scientific tradition, is currently downplayed as a climatic factor within the most popular hypothesis for climate change. As the root of this neglect lie two fundamental problems.CLIMATE ETC.
By Nic Lewis. An important paper, Wang et al., on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published.The key conclusion of the paper is: The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models and THE TOXIC RHETORIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource. Climate change — manmade and/or natural — along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern. However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical. CO2 NO-FEEDBACK SENSITIVITY by Judith Curry The IPCC defines climate sensitivity as "a metric used to characterise the response of the global climate system to a given forcing. It is broadly defined as the equilibrium global mean surface temperature change following a doubling of atmospheric CO2concentration." The no feedback sensitivity is the direct response of the surface temperature CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST ENERGYCLIMATE ETC CURRYGEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JUDITH CURRY by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a key issue for estimating climate sensitivity. If EEI is positive then the Earth’s climate system gains energy; if it’s negative the system loses energy, largely due to the energy flow into or out of the THE UNCERTAINTY MONSTER The “uncertainty monster” is a concept introduced by van der Sluijs (2005) in an analysis of the different ways that the scientific community responds to uncertainties that are difficult to cope with. A monster is understood as a phenomenon that at the same moment fits into two categories that were considered to be mutually excluding. ARE THE DEEP OCEANS COOLING? by Judith Curry Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause" in warming. - Wunsch and Heimbach For context, see these two previous posts at Climate Etc.:Has
HISTORIC VARIATIONS IN ARCTIC SEA ICE. PART II: 1920-1950ARCTIC SEA ICE AND NEWSARCTIC SEA ICE LEVELS HISTORY Historic variations in Arctic sea ice is a series that attempts to determine the arctic warming events through the Holocene which commenced some 11000 years ago. Part 1 covered the warm period from approx. 1816 to 1860. This paper – Part 2 – examines the period of warming 1920-1940 with a decade long overlap. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SURPRISES Ocean Heat Content Surprises. There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications. The first paper has a narrative that ‘the oceans are warming faster than we thought and now the ocean warming matches the climate model simulations’: “Climate change from human ‘MOST’ VERSUS ‘MORE THAN HALF’ VERSUS ‘> 50%’ Most: greatest in amount or degree; the majority of. Half: one of two equal or approximately parts of a divisible whole, as an object, or unit of measure or time; a part of a whole equal to the remainder. Legal definition of more than half: majority. Majority: A majority is a subset of a set consisting of more than half of the set’selements.
IMPACT OF THE ~ 2400 YR SOLAR CYCLE ON CLIMATE AND HUMAN Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies. *by Javier. The role of solar variability on climate change, despite having a very long scientific tradition, is currently downplayed as a climatic factor within the most popular hypothesis for climate change. As the root of this neglect lie two fundamental problems.WEEK IN REVIEW
by Judith Curry A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks. A new study finds a large, previously unknown contribution to climate change through human conversion of peatlands for agriculture Accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy alters wind climate and reduces future power generation Reducing uncertainty in contrail radiative forcing ABOUT | CLIMATE ETC. Climate Etc. provides a forum for climate researchers, academics and technical experts from other fields, citizen scientists, and the interested public to engage in a discussion on topics related to climate science and the science-policy interface. You are free to share or remix anything from Climate Etc., following the guidelines ofCreative Commons.
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES: GLOBAL WARMING CONSENSUS THINKING by Geoffrey Weiss and Claude Roessiger The so-called debate about the causes and effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a notable irony. Rather than a forum for free disputation, AGW has in recent years become the site of a consensus equating majority opinion with truth—leaving little, if any, room for debate. After all, doesn't NORTH ATLANTIC NONSENSE North Atlantic Nonsense. “ Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades “. This announcement from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was headlined recently in my morning newspaper in France (and indozens of
CLIMATE ETC.
A new variant, B.1.1.7, of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has recently spread rapidly in England. The public health agency’s best estimate of B.1.1.7’s weekly growth rate advantage is 1.51x. They mis-convert this in a reproduction number ratio of 1.47; converting appropriately gives a ratio of 1.25. CONSENSUS | CLIMATE ETC. The paradox of the climate change consensus. In our view, the fact that so many scientists agree so closely about the earth’s warming is, itself, evidence of a lack of evidence for global warming. – D. Ryan Brumberg and MatthewBrumberg.
CLIMATE ETC.
by Judith Curry. On Tuesday June 25, I will be testifying before the House Oversight and Reform Environmental Subcommittee in a Hearing on Recovery, Resilience and Readiness – Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change.. Continue reading → PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE: 2020-2050 Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050. A range of scenarios for global mean surface temperature change between 2020 and 2050, derived using a semi-empirical approach. All three modes of natural climate variability – volcanoes, solar and internal variability – are expected to act in the direction of cooling duringthis period.
ESCAPE FROM MODEL LAND Escape from model land. “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can lead to more relevant information on the real world and thus better-informed decision- making.”. – Erica Thompson and Lenny Smith. The title and motivation for this post comes from a new paper by Erica Thompson andLenny Smith
MESSES AND SUPER WICKED PROBLEMS Kelly Levin, Benjamin Cashore, Steven Bernstein and Graeme Auld introduced in 2007 the distinction between “wicked” and “super wicked problems”. They first presented International Studies Association Convention in Chicago, February 28 – March 3, 2007. They presented a revised version of the paper to the Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions Congress, 10–12 MarchCLIMATE ETC.
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TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES: GLOBAL WARMING CONSENSUS THINKING AND THE DECLINE OF PUBLIC DEBATE Posted on June 1, 2021 by curryja | 292 comments BY GEOFFREY WEISS AND CLAUDE ROESSIGER The so-called debate about the causes and effects of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a notable irony. Rather than a forum for free disputation, AGW has in recent years become the site of a consensus equating majority opinion with truth—leaving little, if any, room for debate. After all, doesn’t everyone but a misguided few agree that we are in the grip of an unparalleled, man- made climaticcatastrophe?
Continue reading →292 Comments
Posted in Consensus ,Uncategorized
SIMPLIFIED CLIMATE MODELLING. PART 1: THE ROLE OF CO2 IN PALEOCLIMATE Posted on May 29, 2021 by curryja | 247 commentsby THOMAS ANDERL
Simple models are formulated to identify the essentials of the natural climate variabilities, concentrating on the readily observable and simplest description. The results will be presented in a series of five articles. This first part shows an attempt to determine the climate role of CO2 from the past. Observations on 400 Mio. years of paleoclimate are found to well constrain the compound universal climate role of CO2, represented by a simple formula. Continue reading →247 Comments
Posted in Uncategorized COLLAPSE OF THE FAKE CONSENSUS ON COVID-19 ORIGINS Posted on May 23, 2021 by curryja | 549 commentsby Judith Curry
The concerning saga of the creation, enforcement and collapse of a ‘consensus’ on Covid-19 origins. Continue reading →549 Comments
Posted in Uncategorized PROJECTING MANMADE CLIMATE CHANGE: SCENARIOS TO 2050 Posted on May 19, 2021 by curryja | 326 commentsby Judith Curry
Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate change — more realistic scenarios make for better policy. Continue reading →326 Comments
Posted in Uncategorized HOW EPIDEMIOLOGISTS TRY TO FOOL US WITH FLAWED STATISTICAL PRACTICES Posted on May 17, 2021 by curryja | 182 comments by S. Stanley Young and Warren Kindzierski Climate Etc. recently carried several insightful posts about _How we fool ourselves._ One of the posts –_ Part II: Scientific consensus building_ – was right on the money given our experience! The post pointed out that… _‘researcher degrees of freedom’… allows for researchers to extract statistical significance or other meaningful information out of almost any data set_. Along similar lines, we offer some thoughts on how _others try to fool us using statistics_ (aka how to lie with statistics); _others_ being epidemiologists and government bureaucrats. Continue reading →182 Comments
Posted in Uncategorized NORTH ATLANTIC NONSENSE Posted on May 12, 2021by
curryja | 106 commentsby Alan Longhurst
“_Never before in 1000 years the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the Gulf Stream System, has been as weak as in the last decades_“. Continue reading →106 Comments
Posted in UncategorizedCLIMATE BOOK SHELF
Posted on May 10, 2021by curryja
| 297 comments
by Judith Curry
Reviews of new books by Steve Koonin, Matthew Kahn and Marc Morano. Continue reading →297 Comments
Posted in Uncategorized WEEK IN REVIEW – SCIENCE EDITION Posted on May 8, 2021 by curryja | 197 commentsby Judith Curry
A few things that caught my these past few weeks. Continue reading →197 Comments
Posted in UncategorizedECO-ANXIETY
Posted on May 6, 2021by curryja
| 266 comments
by Judith Curry
The damaging effects of generating eco-anxiety in children. Climate Etc. as an antidote. Continue reading →266 Comments
Posted in Communication, Uncategorized
CLIMATE IS EVERYTHING Posted on May 2, 2021by curryja
| 244 comments
by Judith Curry
. . . according to the cover story of April 26 issue of _Time Magazine_. How have we have fooled ourselves into thinking that manmade climate change is the dominant cause of societal problems? Continue reading →244 Comments
Posted in Policy ,
Uncategorized
ACADEMIC FREEDOM AND SCHOLARSHIP: PERSPECTIVE FROM CANADA Posted on April 29, 2021 by curryja | 68 commentsby Pamela Lindsay
Mentorships by professors of students are among the vital functions of a university. Here I expose the vulnerable underbelly of mentorship and one possible threat to academic freedom and scholarship. Continue reading →68 Comments
Posted in Sociology of science HOW WE FOOL OURSELVES. PART III: SOCIAL BIASES Posted on April 25, 2021 by curryja | 375 commentsby Judith Curry
“Is the road to scientific hell paved with good intentions?” – political psychologist Philip Tetlock (1994) Continue reading →375 Comments
Posted in Uncategorized WEEK IN REVIEW – SCIENCE EDITION Posted on April 17, 2021 by curryja | 500 commentsby Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week Continue reading →500 Comments
Posted in Uncategorized HOW WE FOOL OURSELVES. PART II: SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS BUILDING Posted on April 10, 2021 by curryja | 556 commentsby Judith Curry
“Like a magnetic field that pulls iron filings into alignment, a powerful cultural belief is aligning multiple sources of scientific bias in the same direction. – policy scientist Daniel Sarewitz Continue reading →556 Comments
Posted in Uncategorized ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE CAMPAIGN TO REPLACE NEW YORK CITY PEAKINGPOWER PLANTS
Posted on April 2, 2021 by curryja | 112 commentsby Roger Caiazza
Environmental justice organizations are currently a major driver of environmental regulation in New York. A new report “The Fossil FuelEnd Game
,
A frontline vision to retire New York City’s peaker plants by 2030” illustrates the campaign strategy they are using to shut down peaking power plants in New York City. Unfortunately their claims are based more on emotion than fact. Continue reading →112 Comments
Posted in Uncategorized A PERTINENT CLIMATE QUESTION Posted on March 28, 2021by
curryja | 120 comments by Michel de Rougemont Not so innocent as it looks, a pertinent question is asked by JudithCurry on Twitter:
_How much of a change in cloudiness would it take to account for the 0.53 W/m2 increase in TOA radiative forcing since 2003? __https://twitter.com/curryja/status/1375144537522204672_ Continue reading →120 Comments
Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks UK CLIMATE POLICY DISCUSSION THREAD Posted on March 21, 2021 by curryja | 261 commentsby Judith Curry
I have been contacted by a UK politician about climate policy in theUK,
Continue reading →261 Comments
Posted in Policy , Politics, Uncategorized
CLIMATE ADAPTATION SENSE. PART III: DYNAMIC ADAPTATIONPOLICY PATHWAYS
Posted on March 17, 2021 by curryja | 88 commentsby Judith Curry
Best practices in adapting to sea level rise use a framework suitable for decision making under deep uncertainty. Continue reading →88 Comments
Posted in Adaptation , Oceans , Uncertainty WEEK IN REVIEW – SCIENCE EDITION Posted on March 12, 2021 by curryja | 164 commentsby Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye these past few weeks Continue reading →164 Comments
Posted in Week in review CLIMATE ADAPTATION FOLLIES. PART II: SCENARIOS OF FUTURE SEALEVEL RISE
Posted on March 8, 2021 by curryja | 61 commentsby Judith Curry
How did the state of New Jersey come to adopt sea level rise projections for their adaptation planning that are more than twice as high as the IPCC’s values? Continue reading →61 Comments
Posted in Adaptation ,Uncertainty
CLIMATE ADAPTATION FOLLIES. PART I: THE NEW JERSEY CHALLENGE Posted on March 7, 2021 by curryja | 93 commentsby Judith Curry
New Jersey has a sea level rise problem. How should this be managed? Continue reading →93 Comments
Posted in Adaptation ,Oceans
CANCELING THE AMO
Posted on March 6, 2021by curryja
| 140 comments
by Judith Curry
Conclusion from Michael Mann’s new paper: “We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system.” Continue reading →140 Comments
Posted in Causation ,Oceans
COMPENSATION BETWEEN CLOUD FEEDBACK + ECS AND AEROSOL-CLOUD FORCING INCMIP6 MODELS
Posted on March 5, 2021 by niclewis | 45 comments_By Nic Lewis_
An important paper, Wang et al., on the relationships between cloud feedback, climate sensitivity (ECS) and aerosol-cloud interaction in the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) has just been published. The key conclusion of the paper is: > The seeming consistency of global-mean temperature evolution between > more positive cloud feedback (high ECS) models and observations > requires a strong aerosol indirect cooling effect that leads to an > interhemispheric temperature evolution that is inconsistent with> observations.
Continue reading →45 Comments
Posted in climate models, Sensitivity &
feedbacks
UNCOMFORTABLE KNOWLEDGE Posted on March 3, 2021by
curryja | 197 commentsby Judith Curry
On the misuse of science and scientific authority. Continue reading →197 Comments
Posted in Policy , Sociologyof science ,
Uncertainty
WEEK IN REVIEW – TX EDITION Posted on February 28, 2021by
curryja | 147 commentsby Judith Curry
A round up of some insightful articles on the TX blackout Continue reading →147 Comments
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