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INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPER By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES 1.192. 47. 3.126. 48. 10.862. 15. Win Probability Added by the Four Factors. (aka How the Game Was Won) Field Goals Free Throws ReboundsTurnovers Other.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts. THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPER By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES 1.192. 47. 3.126. 48. 10.862. 15. Win Probability Added by the Four Factors. (aka How the Game Was Won) Field Goals Free Throws ReboundsTurnovers Other.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts. THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
AN ELAM ENDING WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR 32.5%. 3 points. 13.7%. 4 points. 0.2%. These probabilities reflect the actual point frequency for all possessions from the pre-Covid 2019-20 NBA season. Each game state is simulated 10,000 times to estimate win probability. To specify game state for the Elam Ending, you need to know three things: Distance to Target Score: How far awaythe
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPER By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than mySUPER BOWL SQUARES
Under "Every Score Pays", the 3, 6, and 9 squares are more valuable compared to the standard squares pool, which makes sense given that touchdowns are worth six points, and the pool pays out before the (virtually certain) extra point is kicked. Click on the chart below to zoom. Also, here is a pdf version: Super Bowl Squares Payouts . NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Washington Wizards; Player WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Caron Butler: 0.07 SOCCER WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Game State. input pre-match odds: odds format: euro us probability. win: draw: loss: input game state: Minute: Goal Difference: Results. Notes. -The probabilities reflect the result after regulation+stoppage time (extra time and penalty shootouts not factored in) JUDGING WIN PROBABILITY MODELS For example, with 2:33 left in the second quarter, the Pelicans led by seven points. According to the ESPN model, the game was a 50/50 toss up at this point, while Inpredictable still had the Rockets favored with a 65% win probability. And in general, I've noticed that the ESPN model tends to be more reactive than mine, in particular when an LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Pace and Efficiency All Possessions After Made Shot After Defensive Rebound After Turnover; pos pace eff pos pace eff pos pace eff pos pace eff; 0.0: 0.00: 0: 0.0: 0.00 NBA TEAM POSSESSION PROFILES NBA Per Possession Statistics. Season:. Playoffs:. | From Date: ToDate:
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts. INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPER By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts. INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPER By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts.ABOUT INPREDICTABLE
This site is my hobby, and I am solely responsible for its content. I have written in the past for FiveThirtyEight and Deadspin.My work has been featured in ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, and The Pudding.And, to my eternal pride, inpredictable gets a shoutout in the footnotes (page 137) of Shea Serrano's Basketball and Other Things. Journalists, academics, and the generally curious can reachMETHODOLOGY
Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.4), so current week gets a weight of 2.5, the prior week a weight of 0.71, etc. NCAA Football. Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.2), so current week gets a weight of 5, prior week a weight of 0.83, etc. NBA. Weight = 1 / (games ago + 1.5), so the most recent game gets a weight of 2/3, the prior game a weight of 2/5, etc.MLB.
HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage THOROUGHBRED BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Three Year Old Males; Rank Horse Name GLA; 1: Essential Quality: 26.42: 2: Life Is Good: 25.66: 3: Hot Rod Charlie: 24.47: 4: Greatest Honour: 23.25: 5: Jackie's LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Los Angeles Clippers; Player Pos WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Kawhi Leonard: F: 0.53: 0.32: 0.21: 0.01: 25: 83%: 0.69: 4-0.17: 4: 100% LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES F: Milwaukee Bucks : 107: 0%: MVP: B. Lopez (MIL): +17%: EI: 5.5: Brooklyn Nets : 115: 100%: LVP: K. Middleton (MIL): -17%: CB: 1.8 NBA BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NBA Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background MLB BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for Baseball Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Teams Starters Ballpark UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
THOROUGHBRED BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Enter horses below and click -> Track Take: | Juvenile: Enter Horse Name Override? Horse Rank Type GLA winProb INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPER By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts. INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPER By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts.ABOUT INPREDICTABLE
This site is my hobby, and I am solely responsible for its content. I have written in the past for FiveThirtyEight and Deadspin.My work has been featured in ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, and The Pudding.And, to my eternal pride, inpredictable gets a shoutout in the footnotes (page 137) of Shea Serrano's Basketball and Other Things. Journalists, academics, and the generally curious can reachMETHODOLOGY
Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.4), so current week gets a weight of 2.5, the prior week a weight of 0.71, etc. NCAA Football. Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.2), so current week gets a weight of 5, prior week a weight of 0.83, etc. NBA. Weight = 1 / (games ago + 1.5), so the most recent game gets a weight of 2/3, the prior game a weight of 2/5, etc.MLB.
HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage THOROUGHBRED BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Three Year Old Males; Rank Horse Name GLA; 1: Essential Quality: 26.42: 2: Life Is Good: 25.66: 3: Hot Rod Charlie: 24.47: 4: Greatest Honour: 23.25: 5: Jackie's LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Los Angeles Clippers; Player Pos WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Kawhi Leonard: F: 0.53: 0.32: 0.21: 0.01: 25: 83%: 0.69: 4-0.17: 4: 100% NBA BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NBA Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
THOROUGHBRED BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Enter horses below and click -> Track Take: | Juvenile: Enter Horse Name Override? Horse Rank Type GLA winProb NBA PLAYER WIN PROBABILITY Player Win Probability Added for Greg Buckner. Playoffs:. | Total WPAPer Game WPA
NBA TEAM POSSESSION PROFILES NBA Per Possession Statistics. Season:. Playoffs:. | From Date: ToDate:
INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPER By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts. INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPER By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts.ABOUT INPREDICTABLE
This site is my hobby, and I am solely responsible for its content. I have written in the past for FiveThirtyEight and Deadspin.My work has been featured in ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, and The Pudding.And, to my eternal pride, inpredictable gets a shoutout in the footnotes (page 137) of Shea Serrano's Basketball and Other Things. Journalists, academics, and the generally curious can reachMETHODOLOGY
Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.4), so current week gets a weight of 2.5, the prior week a weight of 0.71, etc. NCAA Football. Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.2), so current week gets a weight of 5, prior week a weight of 0.83, etc. NBA. Weight = 1 / (games ago + 1.5), so the most recent game gets a weight of 2/3, the prior game a weight of 2/5, etc.MLB.
HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES F: Denver Nuggets : 105: 0%: MVP: M. Bridges (PHX): +26%: EI: 5.1: Phoenix Suns : 122: 100%: LVP: M. Morris (DEN): -15%: CB: 3.7 LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES F: Milwaukee Bucks : 107: 0%: MVP: B. Lopez (MIL): +17%: EI: 5.5: Brooklyn Nets : 115: 100%: LVP: K. Middleton (MIL): -17%: CB: 1.8 LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Los Angeles Clippers; Player Pos WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Kawhi Leonard: F: 0.53: 0.32: 0.21: 0.01: 25: 83%: 0.69: 4-0.17: 4: 100% THOROUGHBRED BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Three Year Old Males; Rank Horse Name GLA; 1: Essential Quality: 26.42: 2: Life Is Good: 25.66: 3: Hot Rod Charlie: 24.47: 4: Greatest Honour: 23.25: 5: Jackie's NBA BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NBA Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Washington Wizards; Player WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Caron Butler: 0.07 MLB BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for Baseball Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Teams Starters Ballpark INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPERROBOCAP 2020ROBO HORSEROBOT HORSE FOR KIDSROBOTIC HORSE TOYROBOCAPFREE THOROUGHBRED HORSE HANDICAPPING SYST… By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts. INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPERROBOCAP 2020ROBO HORSEROBOT HORSE FOR KIDSROBOTIC HORSE TOYROBOCAPFREE THOROUGHBRED HORSE HANDICAPPING SYST… By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts.ABOUT INPREDICTABLE
This site is my hobby, and I am solely responsible for its content. I have written in the past for FiveThirtyEight and Deadspin.My work has been featured in ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, and The Pudding.And, to my eternal pride, inpredictable gets a shoutout in the footnotes (page 137) of Shea Serrano's Basketball and Other Things. Journalists, academics, and the generally curious can reachMETHODOLOGY
Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.4), so current week gets a weight of 2.5, the prior week a weight of 0.71, etc. NCAA Football. Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.2), so current week gets a weight of 5, prior week a weight of 0.83, etc. NBA. Weight = 1 / (games ago + 1.5), so the most recent game gets a weight of 2/3, the prior game a weight of 2/5, etc.MLB.
HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES F: Denver Nuggets : 105: 0%: MVP: M. Bridges (PHX): +26%: EI: 5.1: Phoenix Suns : 122: 100%: LVP: M. Morris (DEN): -15%: CB: 3.7 LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Los Angeles Clippers; Player Pos WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Kawhi Leonard: F: 0.53: 0.32: 0.21: 0.01: 25: 83%: 0.69: 4-0.17: 4: 100% LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES F: Milwaukee Bucks : 107: 0%: MVP: B. Lopez (MIL): +17%: EI: 5.5: Brooklyn Nets : 115: 100%: LVP: K. Middleton (MIL): -17%: CB: 1.8 THOROUGHBRED BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Three Year Old Males; Rank Horse Name GLA; 1: Essential Quality: 26.42: 2: Life Is Good: 25.66: 3: Hot Rod Charlie: 24.47: 4: Greatest Honour: 23.25: 5: Jackie's NBA BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NBA Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Washington Wizards; Player WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Caron Butler: 0.07 MLB BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for Baseball Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Teams Starters Ballpark INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPERROBOCAP 2020ROBO HORSEROBOT HORSE FOR KIDSROBOTIC HORSE TOYROBOCAPFREE THOROUGHBRED HORSE HANDICAPPING SYST… By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts. INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPERROBOCAP 2020ROBO HORSEROBOT HORSE FOR KIDSROBOTIC HORSE TOYROBOCAPFREE THOROUGHBRED HORSE HANDICAPPING SYST… By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts.ABOUT INPREDICTABLE
This site is my hobby, and I am solely responsible for its content. I have written in the past for FiveThirtyEight and Deadspin.My work has been featured in ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, and The Pudding.And, to my eternal pride, inpredictable gets a shoutout in the footnotes (page 137) of Shea Serrano's Basketball and Other Things. Journalists, academics, and the generally curious can reachMETHODOLOGY
Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.4), so current week gets a weight of 2.5, the prior week a weight of 0.71, etc. NCAA Football. Weight = 1 / (weeks ago + 0.2), so current week gets a weight of 5, prior week a weight of 0.83, etc. NBA. Weight = 1 / (games ago + 1.5), so the most recent game gets a weight of 2/3, the prior game a weight of 2/5, etc.MLB.
HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES F: Denver Nuggets : 105: 0%: MVP: M. Bridges (PHX): +26%: EI: 5.1: Phoenix Suns : 122: 100%: LVP: M. Morris (DEN): -15%: CB: 3.7 LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Los Angeles Clippers; Player Pos WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Kawhi Leonard: F: 0.53: 0.32: 0.21: 0.01: 25: 83%: 0.69: 4-0.17: 4: 100% LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES F: Milwaukee Bucks : 107: 0%: MVP: B. Lopez (MIL): +17%: EI: 5.5: Brooklyn Nets : 115: 100%: LVP: K. Middleton (MIL): -17%: CB: 1.8 THOROUGHBRED BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Three Year Old Males; Rank Horse Name GLA; 1: Essential Quality: 26.42: 2: Life Is Good: 25.66: 3: Hot Rod Charlie: 24.47: 4: Greatest Honour: 23.25: 5: Jackie's NBA BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NBA Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Washington Wizards; Player WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Caron Butler: 0.07 MLB BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for Baseball Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Teams Starters Ballpark INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS This post has been in the works for several months now, and is the result of a deep dive into the NBA's SportVU motion tracking data.It's a project I picked up when I had time, and put down when I got stuck(which was often).
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP The data is a bit stale at this point, as it is derived from raw tracking data from 2013-2016 (the NBA took the data down publicly on January 23, 2016, a date firmly etched in my mind) INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPERROBOCAP 2020ROBO HORSEROBOT HORSE FOR KIDSROBOTIC HORSE TOYROBOCAPFREE THOROUGHBRED HORSE HANDICAPPING SYST… By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Clutch shooting isn't easy, and neither is defining it.The NBA defines clutch shooting as any shot taken in the last five minutes of the game in which the score differential is within five points. THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS At Wages of Wins, Ed Feng posted recently on the impact of home court advantage in the playoffs.He found that home court advantage seems to have a bigger impact in the playoffs, even after correcting for relative team strength (e.g. 1 seeds vs. 8 seeds, etc.). INPREDICTABLEHOMEGRAPHS AND BOX SCORESEFFICIENCY STATSAVERAGE TIME TO SHOTWIN PROBABILITY ADDED at the intersection of sports, data, and visualization (formerly betting market analytics) HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage INTRODUCING SHARC: SHOT ARC ANALYSIS Typical release height for a free throw is 1 foot above the top of the shooter's head. The release angle of 54.0 degrees and velocity of 23.3 ft/s is fairly typical for a 6'8 player (53.9 degrees, 23.5 ft/s). The modeled acceleration of 32.3 ft/s^2 is a bit high compared to theory,but within reason.
NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMP NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump. January 24, 2021. Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data. Where most analysis and research at that time (and still today) focused on the locations of the 10 players in two dimensions, I carved out my own niche by focusing instead on the motion of the ball itselfin
INTRODUCING ROBOCAP: AN AUTOMATED HORSE RACE HANDICAPPERROBOCAP 2020ROBO HORSEROBOT HORSE FOR KIDSROBOTIC HORSE TOYROBOCAPFREE THOROUGHBRED HORSE HANDICAPPING SYST… By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23,000 races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line.; However, I have found that when compared against the top tier tracks (tracks with an average win/place/show pool >$75k), the morning line does better than my NHL BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NHL Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
NBA CLUTCH SHOOTING REPORT NBA Clutch Shooting Breakdown. Season:. Position:. Team:. Playoffs: THE POINT SPREAD, HOME COURT ADVANTAGE, AND THE PLAYOFFS Feng found that home court advantage is worth 4.5 points in the playoffs, compared to 3.2 points in the regular season. I had noticed a similar phenomena in the Vegas point spreads during last year's playoffs. When a playoff series would switch venues, I was expecting a 6.5 point swing in the point spread (the betting market values homecourt
HEROES, GOATS AND GARBAGE MEN : NEW CLUTCH SHOOTING Brandon Knight is shooting just 29.4% eFG on his 63 clutch attempts, and Zach Levine is even worse, shooting just 25.4%. We can also sort the table by "Double Clutch" shot attempts (click the "DblCl" column). Reggie Jackson leads the league with 18 double clutch field goal attempts, but has shot just 16.7% on those attempts.ABOUT INPREDICTABLE
This site is my hobby, and I am solely responsible for its content. I have written in the past for FiveThirtyEight and Deadspin.My work has been featured in ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, and The Pudding.And, to my eternal pride, inpredictable gets a shoutout in the footnotes (page 137) of Shea Serrano's Basketball and Other Things. Journalists, academics, and the generally curious can reachMETHODOLOGY
The form of the weight function I am using (= 1/ (time elapsed + constant)) is equivalent to assuming that market evaluation of team strength "jiggles" randomly up or down week to week (or day to day) according to a normal distribution. HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERS Kullback-Liebler divergence - Both roboCap and the morning line are, in effect, trying to predict a probability distribution (the one implied by the closing odds).Kullback-Liebler divergence is a measure that compares how closely two different probability distributions match. The lower the score, the better the match. However, I think this puts the morning line at somewhat of a disadvantage LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES F: Milwaukee Bucks : 107: 0%: MVP: B. Lopez (MIL): +17%: EI: 5.5: Brooklyn Nets : 115: 100%: LVP: K. Middleton (MIL): -17%: CB: 1.8 LIVE NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Los Angeles Clippers; Player Pos WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Kawhi Leonard: F: 0.53: 0.32: 0.21: 0.01: 25: 83%: 0.69: 4-0.17: 4: 100% THOROUGHBRED BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Three Year Old Males; Rank Horse Name GLA; 1: Essential Quality: 26.42: 2: Life Is Good: 25.66: 3: Hot Rod Charlie: 24.47: 4: Greatest Honour: 23.25: 5: Jackie's NBA BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for the NBA Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Background NBA WIN PROBABILITY GAME BOX SCORES Washington Wizards; Player WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA FGA TS% tsWPA TO toWPA FTA FT% ftWPA; Caron Butler: 0.07 MLB BETTING MARKET RANKINGS Betting Market Rankings for Baseball Tweet. NBA WNBA NFL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NHL Horses. Teams Starters Ballpark UPDATED NBA WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATOR Data: Play by play data for nearly all NBA games from the 2000 to 2012 seasons.I merged that data with point spreads from sportsdatabase.com; Model inputs: The win probability is a function of game time, point differential, possession, and the Vegas point spread.I use the Vegas point spread to control for differences in team strength that couldbias the results.
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MenuNBA- Live Win Probabilities- Graphs and Box Scores- Efficiency Stats- Average Time to Shot- Win Probability Added- Top Games Finder- Team Scoreboard- Record Explainer- Clutch Shooting- Clutch Free Throws- PrecapWNBA- Graphs and Box Scores- Efficiency Stats- Win Probability Added- Clutch Shooting- Top Games FinderShot Tracking- 3PT Shooting Motion- 3PT Animated- FT Shooting Motion- Free Throw Scatter- Launch Angle- Deflategate- Drag Force- All Blog PostsSports- NFL- NBA- WNBA- NCAAF- NCAAB- Tennis- MLB- NHL- Horse Racing- SoccerRankings- NFL- NBA- WNBA- NCAAB- NCAAF- MLB- NHL- Horses- MethodologyTools- NBA Win Probability- Elam Ending- WNBA Win Probability- Soccer Win Probability- Hackulator- roboCapAbout AN ELAM ENDING WIN PROBABILITY CALCULATORMarch 07, 2021
Despite the muted enthusiasm (and questionable judgment) surrounding this year's NBA All Star game, most would agree that bringing back ... NBA PLAYER SHOOTING MOTIONS: A DATA DUMPJanuary 24, 2021
Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data . Where most analysis and research at that time (and stilltoday...
HALF MEASURES
June 21, 2020
How I killed some time during the lockdown. The following was inspired by this tweet: How to count to 100 like a journalist: A,both...
AN UPDATE TO THE TENSION INDEX, WITH AN ASSIST FROM CLAUDE SHANNONApril 11, 2020
The Tension Index, first launched 4 years ago on this site, has now been updated with a more solid mathematical underpinning. The purposeo...
NEW FEATURE: MEASURING PACE BASED ON TIME TO SHOTJanuary 19, 2020
Nearly five years ago , I launched a possession tracking tool that did the following: Separated pace into its offensive and defensive comp... HANDICAPPING THE HANDICAPPERSDecember 31, 2019
Last year, I launched my thoroughbred betting market rankings , building off the same techniques I used to create similar rankings forthe ...
NEW NBA FEATURE: DOPPLEGAMERSNovember 17, 2019
A new feature has been added to the site's NBA Win Probability Box Scores , borne largely out of my own idle curiosity. Click the &q... Page 1 of 5312353NEXT Subscribe to: Posts ( Atom )POPULAR POSTS
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How long is each minute of NBA gametime? In a recent post for FiveThirtyEight , Carl Bialik took a look at the length of college basketball games, particularly the grueling slogt...
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Super Bowl Squares - Every Score Pays Out 2/3/2013 Update: A more mobile friendly version of the chart: Squares Payouts . My most recent two posts covered the concept of in-game ...*
Introducing ShArc: Shot Arc Analysis This post has been in the works for several months now, and is the result of a deep dive into the NBA's SportVU motion tracking data ....
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A Deflategate Analysis for the NBA Phil Jackson, 1986 : "We'd try to take some air out of the ball. You see, on the ball it says something like 'inflate ...*
Updated NBA Win Probability Calculator The odds of winning a game when down by 6 with 18 seconds left are approximately 250 to 1 . Last month , I rolled out a new version ofm...
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The Turnover Index (possibly overfit edition) The Turnover Index makes a belated return this season, with some additional tweaks and enhancements. The Turnover Index is a simplebet...
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NBA Player Shooting Motions: A Data Dump Over 5 years ago, I published my first research on NBA motion tracking data . Where most analysis and research at that time (and stilltoday...
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