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EPSILON THEORY
Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn, of Second Foundation Partners, write Epsilon Theory to examine the narratives that drive markets, investing, voting and elections through the lenses of game theory and history and artificial intelligence.BRENT X. DONNELLY
Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021.. Brent writes a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX and has experience as both a sell-side trader (HSBC, Citibank, Lehman Brothers) and BEN HUNT | EPSILON THEORY Ben Hunt is the creator of Epsilon Theory and inspiration behind Second Foundation Partners, which he co-founded with Rusty Guinn in June 2018. Epsilon Theory, Second Foundation’s principal publishing brand, is a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investorsand
WAGE INFLATION ISN'T COMING. IT'S ALREADY HERE. Q3 2020 wages were 6.2% higher than Q3 2019 wages. Q2 2020 wages were 6.5% higher than Q2 2019 wages. These are also facts. I am not making this up. Over the past 10 years prior to the past 4 quarters, the highest single quarterly year-over-year wage growth was 3.6% in Q42018.
MORTGAGE MAYHEM
Marc Rubinstein has over 25 years experience as an analyst and investor in the financials sector which he distills into a free weekly newsletter, Net Interest, which I think is a really great read!Between 2006 and 2016 he was senior analyst and portfolio manager on the Lansdowne Global Financials Fund, a fundamental long/short equity fund focused exclusively on the global financials AFTER ALL, WE ARE NOT COMMUNISTS 17+. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): After All, We Are Not Communists. If Don Corleone had all the judges and the politicians in New York, then he must share them, or let us others use them. He must let us draw the water from the well. Certainly he can present a bill for such services; after all we are not Communists.NEVILLE CRAWLEY
The Anxiety Algorithm: An interview with Adam Julian Goldstein. Epsilon Theory contributor Neville Crawley is back with an interview of Adam Julian Goldstein, discussing Adam’s fascinating new work on anxiety. If, like me, you have the entrepreneurialGELL-MANN AMNESIA
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I "REBALANCE TIMING LUCK: THE DUMB (TIMING) LUCK OF SMARTSEE MORE ONEPSILONTHEORY.COM
THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK Holmes: That was the curious incident. In “The Adventure of Silver Blaze”, one of Arthur Conan Doyle’s most popular stories, Sherlock Holmes cracks the case of the missing race horse and the murdered trainer by noting that the guard dog did NOT bark on the night in question, revealing that the criminal must have been well known to thedog.
EPSILON THEORY
Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn, of Second Foundation Partners, write Epsilon Theory to examine the narratives that drive markets, investing, voting and elections through the lenses of game theory and history and artificial intelligence.BRENT X. DONNELLY
Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021.. Brent writes a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX and has experience as both a sell-side trader (HSBC, Citibank, Lehman Brothers) and BEN HUNT | EPSILON THEORY Ben Hunt is the creator of Epsilon Theory and inspiration behind Second Foundation Partners, which he co-founded with Rusty Guinn in June 2018. Epsilon Theory, Second Foundation’s principal publishing brand, is a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investorsand
WAGE INFLATION ISN'T COMING. IT'S ALREADY HERE. Q3 2020 wages were 6.2% higher than Q3 2019 wages. Q2 2020 wages were 6.5% higher than Q2 2019 wages. These are also facts. I am not making this up. Over the past 10 years prior to the past 4 quarters, the highest single quarterly year-over-year wage growth was 3.6% in Q42018.
MORTGAGE MAYHEM
Marc Rubinstein has over 25 years experience as an analyst and investor in the financials sector which he distills into a free weekly newsletter, Net Interest, which I think is a really great read!Between 2006 and 2016 he was senior analyst and portfolio manager on the Lansdowne Global Financials Fund, a fundamental long/short equity fund focused exclusively on the global financials AFTER ALL, WE ARE NOT COMMUNISTS 17+. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): After All, We Are Not Communists. If Don Corleone had all the judges and the politicians in New York, then he must share them, or let us others use them. He must let us draw the water from the well. Certainly he can present a bill for such services; after all we are not Communists.NEVILLE CRAWLEY
The Anxiety Algorithm: An interview with Adam Julian Goldstein. Epsilon Theory contributor Neville Crawley is back with an interview of Adam Julian Goldstein, discussing Adam’s fascinating new work on anxiety. If, like me, you have the entrepreneurialGELL-MANN AMNESIA
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I "REBALANCE TIMING LUCK: THE DUMB (TIMING) LUCK OF SMARTSEE MORE ONEPSILONTHEORY.COM
THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK Holmes: That was the curious incident. In “The Adventure of Silver Blaze”, one of Arthur Conan Doyle’s most popular stories, Sherlock Holmes cracks the case of the missing race horse and the murdered trainer by noting that the guard dog did NOT bark on the night in question, revealing that the criminal must have been well known to thedog.
"YAY, ENVIRONMENT!"
In Epsilon Theory-speak, we use “Yay, Good-Thing!” as shorthand for a narrative that takes a linguistic construction that we all agree is a Good Thing (something like “capitalism” or “freedom” or “democracy”) and turns it into a behaviorally powerfully argument for something that is decidedly not that Good Thing, but can be painted with other behaviorally powerful words into BITCOIN MARKET PROFILE Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021. Brent writes a daily email focused on FX markets that is my go-to source for understanding that enormous corner of the market, but in truth hisTHE SHIFT TO DOVISH
Coming into June, the dominant market narrative around central banks is a constructive what-me-worry attitude about inflation and the Fed’s ability to deal with it. Personally, I think this is nonsense. But that’s the core strength of systematic narrative analysisFIAT NEWS IN ACTION
There’s really no such thing as “real money”, i.e., gold and silver as a medium for exchange or a store of value, in existence in the world today.That PANOPTICON | EPSILON THEORY As Bentham wrote, the Panopticon design was a means of controlling the minds of prisoners or workers through mental force, as opposed to the traditional goal in 18th century prisons and workhouses of controlling bodies through brute force. Just like the warden in Cool Hand Luke, just like Dick Clark with American Bandstand, Bentham understood TEN TIMES FASTER THAN THE SUN'S BEAMS Which ten times faster glide than the sun’s beams, Driving back shadows over louring hills: Therefore do nimble-pinion’d doves draw love, And therefore hath the wind-swift Cupid wings. Romeo and Juliet, Act 2 Scene 5. That’s how Shakespeare described MEMBERS | EPSILON THEORY The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock; The Long Now, Pt. 2 – Make, Protect, Teach; The Long Now, Pt. 3 – Wink; The Long Now, Pt. 4 –Snip!
RUST AND BLIGHT
Rust and Blight. Suddenly, over the slope, as if tethered to a cord of air drawing quickly upward, came a Northern Harrier, motionless but for its rising. So still was the bird – wings, tail, head – it might have been a museum specimen. Then, as if atop the wind, it slid down the ridge, tilted a few times, veered, tacked up the hill, its MEMBERS | EPSILON THEORY First Name: Dale. Last Name: Miller. Nickname: dtmiller. © 2021 - Epsilon Theory. Terms of Service; Disclosures; Privacy Policy; Cookiepolicy (EU)
YOU PROVIDE THE PICTURES AND I’LL As real-life Hearst once said to a staffer, “you provide the pictures and I’ll provide the war.”. For modern-day William Randolph Hearsts, like Jeff Bezos (personal owner of the Washington Post) or Marc Benioff (the new personal owner of Time Magazine ), I don’t think the goal is to start a jingoistic war in order tofurther a political
EPSILON THEORY
Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn, of Second Foundation Partners, write Epsilon Theory to examine the narratives that drive markets, investing, voting and elections through the lenses of game theory and history and artificial intelligence.BRENT X. DONNELLY
Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021.. Brent writes a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX and has experience as both a sell-side trader (HSBC, Citibank, Lehman Brothers) and BEN HUNT | EPSILON THEORY Ben Hunt is the creator of Epsilon Theory and inspiration behind Second Foundation Partners, which he co-founded with Rusty Guinn in June 2018. Epsilon Theory, Second Foundation’s principal publishing brand, is a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investorsand
WAGE INFLATION ISN'T COMING. IT'S ALREADY HERE. Q3 2020 wages were 6.2% higher than Q3 2019 wages. Q2 2020 wages were 6.5% higher than Q2 2019 wages. These are also facts. I am not making this up. Over the past 10 years prior to the past 4 quarters, the highest single quarterly year-over-year wage growth was 3.6% in Q42018.
MORTGAGE MAYHEM
Marc Rubinstein has over 25 years experience as an analyst and investor in the financials sector which he distills into a free weekly newsletter, Net Interest, which I think is a really great read!Between 2006 and 2016 he was senior analyst and portfolio manager on the Lansdowne Global Financials Fund, a fundamental long/short equity fund focused exclusively on the global financials AFTER ALL, WE ARE NOT COMMUNISTS 17+. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): After All, We Are Not Communists. If Don Corleone had all the judges and the politicians in New York, then he must share them, or let us others use them. He must let us draw the water from the well. Certainly he can present a bill for such services; after all we are not Communists.GELL-MANN AMNESIA
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I YOU ARE WHAT YOUR RECORD SAYS YOU ARE You are, not a slave, but an indentured servant to those who DO own your public identity. So let me ask you, and I’m not (just) asking about whatever investment record you may or may not have, but I’m asking about every aspect of your behavior, from how you spend money to how you take care of your health to how you participate politically "REBALANCE TIMING LUCK: THE DUMB (TIMING) LUCK OF SMARTSEE MORE ONEPSILONTHEORY.COM
THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK Holmes: That was the curious incident. In “The Adventure of Silver Blaze”, one of Arthur Conan Doyle’s most popular stories, Sherlock Holmes cracks the case of the missing race horse and the murdered trainer by noting that the guard dog did NOT bark on the night in question, revealing that the criminal must have been well known to thedog.
EPSILON THEORY
Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn, of Second Foundation Partners, write Epsilon Theory to examine the narratives that drive markets, investing, voting and elections through the lenses of game theory and history and artificial intelligence.BRENT X. DONNELLY
Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021.. Brent writes a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX and has experience as both a sell-side trader (HSBC, Citibank, Lehman Brothers) and BEN HUNT | EPSILON THEORY Ben Hunt is the creator of Epsilon Theory and inspiration behind Second Foundation Partners, which he co-founded with Rusty Guinn in June 2018. Epsilon Theory, Second Foundation’s principal publishing brand, is a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investorsand
WAGE INFLATION ISN'T COMING. IT'S ALREADY HERE. Q3 2020 wages were 6.2% higher than Q3 2019 wages. Q2 2020 wages were 6.5% higher than Q2 2019 wages. These are also facts. I am not making this up. Over the past 10 years prior to the past 4 quarters, the highest single quarterly year-over-year wage growth was 3.6% in Q42018.
MORTGAGE MAYHEM
Marc Rubinstein has over 25 years experience as an analyst and investor in the financials sector which he distills into a free weekly newsletter, Net Interest, which I think is a really great read!Between 2006 and 2016 he was senior analyst and portfolio manager on the Lansdowne Global Financials Fund, a fundamental long/short equity fund focused exclusively on the global financials AFTER ALL, WE ARE NOT COMMUNISTS 17+. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): After All, We Are Not Communists. If Don Corleone had all the judges and the politicians in New York, then he must share them, or let us others use them. He must let us draw the water from the well. Certainly he can present a bill for such services; after all we are not Communists.GELL-MANN AMNESIA
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I YOU ARE WHAT YOUR RECORD SAYS YOU ARE You are, not a slave, but an indentured servant to those who DO own your public identity. So let me ask you, and I’m not (just) asking about whatever investment record you may or may not have, but I’m asking about every aspect of your behavior, from how you spend money to how you take care of your health to how you participate politically "REBALANCE TIMING LUCK: THE DUMB (TIMING) LUCK OF SMARTSEE MORE ONEPSILONTHEORY.COM
THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK Holmes: That was the curious incident. In “The Adventure of Silver Blaze”, one of Arthur Conan Doyle’s most popular stories, Sherlock Holmes cracks the case of the missing race horse and the murdered trainer by noting that the guard dog did NOT bark on the night in question, revealing that the criminal must have been well known to thedog.
"YAY, ENVIRONMENT!"
In Epsilon Theory-speak, we use “Yay, Good-Thing!” as shorthand for a narrative that takes a linguistic construction that we all agree is a Good Thing (something like “capitalism” or “freedom” or “democracy”) and turns it into a behaviorally powerfully argument for something that is decidedly not that Good Thing, but can be painted with other behaviorally powerful words into BITCOIN MARKET PROFILE Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021. Brent writes a daily email focused on FX markets that is my go-to source for understanding that enormous corner of the market, but in truth hisFIAT NEWS IN ACTION
There’s really no such thing as “real money”, i.e., gold and silver as a medium for exchange or a store of value, in existence in the world today.That MEMBERS | EPSILON THEORY The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock; The Long Now, Pt. 2 – Make, Protect, Teach; The Long Now, Pt. 3 – Wink; The Long Now, Pt. 4 –Snip!
PANOPTICON | EPSILON THEORY As Bentham wrote, the Panopticon design was a means of controlling the minds of prisoners or workers through mental force, as opposed to the traditional goal in 18th century prisons and workhouses of controlling bodies through brute force. Just like the warden in Cool Hand Luke, just like Dick Clark with American Bandstand, Bentham understood THE BITCOIN METAGAME Wall Street is redefining Bitcoin to be an Inflation Hedge™ product. This is how Wall Street creates flow. This is how Wall Street makes money. All that stands in the way is the unregulated nature of Bitcoin. So that's gonna change. Read more TEN TIMES FASTER THAN THE SUN'S BEAMS Which ten times faster glide than the sun’s beams, Driving back shadows over louring hills: Therefore do nimble-pinion’d doves draw love, And therefore hath the wind-swift Cupid wings. Romeo and Juliet, Act 2 Scene 5. That’s how Shakespeare described YOU ARE WHAT YOUR RECORD SAYS YOU ARE You are, not a slave, but an indentured servant to those who DO own your public identity. So let me ask you, and I’m not (just) asking about whatever investment record you may or may not have, but I’m asking about every aspect of your behavior, from how you spend money to how you take care of your health to how you participate politicallyRUST AND BLIGHT
Rust and Blight. Suddenly, over the slope, as if tethered to a cord of air drawing quickly upward, came a Northern Harrier, motionless but for its rising. So still was the bird – wings, tail, head – it might have been a museum specimen. Then, as if atop the wind, it slid down the ridge, tilted a few times, veered, tacked up the hill, its ADMIRING THE PROBLEM One of the missionary's most powerful tools is admiring the unsolvable problem - finding new ways of describing what's wrong without an honest effort to actually fix it. With apologies, add this to the list of things that you will now see everywhere. Read moreEPSILON THEORY
Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn, of Second Foundation Partners, write Epsilon Theory to examine the narratives that drive markets, investing, voting and elections through the lenses of game theory and history and artificial intelligence.A WORKING NARRATIVE
The future of remote work after the pandemic ends has been a part of the zeitgeist for more than a year. Now it IS the zeitgeist. It is also a narrative battlefield being actively conflated with a half dozen other major social and policy topics. Read moreBRENT X. DONNELLY
Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021.. Brent writes a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX and has experience as both a sell-side trader (HSBC, Citibank, Lehman Brothers) and BITCOIN MARKET PROFILE Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021. Brent writes a daily email focused on FX markets that is my go-to source for understanding that enormous corner of the market, but in truth his WAGE INFLATION ISN'T COMING. IT'S ALREADY HERE. Q3 2020 wages were 6.2% higher than Q3 2019 wages. Q2 2020 wages were 6.5% higher than Q2 2019 wages. These are also facts. I am not making this up. Over the past 10 years prior to the past 4 quarters, the highest single quarterly year-over-year wage growth was 3.6% in Q42018.
MORTGAGE MAYHEM
Marc Rubinstein has over 25 years experience as an analyst and investor in the financials sector which he distills into a free weekly newsletter, Net Interest, which I think is a really great read!Between 2006 and 2016 he was senior analyst and portfolio manager on the Lansdowne Global Financials Fund, a fundamental long/short equity fund focused exclusively on the global financials AFTER ALL, WE ARE NOT COMMUNISTS 17+. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): After All, We Are Not Communists. If Don Corleone had all the judges and the politicians in New York, then he must share them, or let us others use them. He must let us draw the water from the well. Certainly he can present a bill for such services; after all we are not Communists.GELL-MANN AMNESIA
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. INEVILLE CRAWLEY
The Anxiety Algorithm: An interview with Adam Julian Goldstein. Epsilon Theory contributor Neville Crawley is back with an interview of Adam Julian Goldstein, discussing Adam’s fascinating new work on anxiety. If, like me, you have the entrepreneurial THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK Holmes: That was the curious incident. In “The Adventure of Silver Blaze”, one of Arthur Conan Doyle’s most popular stories, Sherlock Holmes cracks the case of the missing race horse and the murdered trainer by noting that the guard dog did NOT bark on the night in question, revealing that the criminal must have been well known to thedog.
EPSILON THEORY
Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn, of Second Foundation Partners, write Epsilon Theory to examine the narratives that drive markets, investing, voting and elections through the lenses of game theory and history and artificial intelligence.A WORKING NARRATIVE
The future of remote work after the pandemic ends has been a part of the zeitgeist for more than a year. Now it IS the zeitgeist. It is also a narrative battlefield being actively conflated with a half dozen other major social and policy topics. Read moreBRENT X. DONNELLY
Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021.. Brent writes a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX and has experience as both a sell-side trader (HSBC, Citibank, Lehman Brothers) and BITCOIN MARKET PROFILE Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021. Brent writes a daily email focused on FX markets that is my go-to source for understanding that enormous corner of the market, but in truth his WAGE INFLATION ISN'T COMING. IT'S ALREADY HERE. Q3 2020 wages were 6.2% higher than Q3 2019 wages. Q2 2020 wages were 6.5% higher than Q2 2019 wages. These are also facts. I am not making this up. Over the past 10 years prior to the past 4 quarters, the highest single quarterly year-over-year wage growth was 3.6% in Q42018.
MORTGAGE MAYHEM
Marc Rubinstein has over 25 years experience as an analyst and investor in the financials sector which he distills into a free weekly newsletter, Net Interest, which I think is a really great read!Between 2006 and 2016 he was senior analyst and portfolio manager on the Lansdowne Global Financials Fund, a fundamental long/short equity fund focused exclusively on the global financials AFTER ALL, WE ARE NOT COMMUNISTS 17+. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): After All, We Are Not Communists. If Don Corleone had all the judges and the politicians in New York, then he must share them, or let us others use them. He must let us draw the water from the well. Certainly he can present a bill for such services; after all we are not Communists.GELL-MANN AMNESIA
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. INEVILLE CRAWLEY
The Anxiety Algorithm: An interview with Adam Julian Goldstein. Epsilon Theory contributor Neville Crawley is back with an interview of Adam Julian Goldstein, discussing Adam’s fascinating new work on anxiety. If, like me, you have the entrepreneurial THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK Holmes: That was the curious incident. In “The Adventure of Silver Blaze”, one of Arthur Conan Doyle’s most popular stories, Sherlock Holmes cracks the case of the missing race horse and the murdered trainer by noting that the guard dog did NOT bark on the night in question, revealing that the criminal must have been well known to thedog.
"YAY, ENVIRONMENT!"
In Epsilon Theory-speak, we use “Yay, Good-Thing!” as shorthand for a narrative that takes a linguistic construction that we all agree is a Good Thing (something like “capitalism” or “freedom” or “democracy”) and turns it into a behaviorally powerfully argument for something that is decidedly not that Good Thing, but can be painted with other behaviorally powerful words intoFIAT NEWS IN ACTION
There’s really no such thing as “real money”, i.e., gold and silver as a medium for exchange or a store of value, in existence in the world today.ThatTHE LONG NOW
The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock. The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children. The Long Now is the constant stimulus that Management applies to our economy and the constant fear that Management applies to our politics. We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now BEN HUNT | EPSILON THEORY Ben Hunt is the creator of Epsilon Theory and inspiration behind Second Foundation Partners, which he co-founded with Rusty Guinn in June 2018. Epsilon Theory, Second Foundation’s principal publishing brand, is a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investorsand
MEMBERS | EPSILON THEORY We use cookies to optimize our website and our service. Read more MEMBERS | EPSILON THEORY The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock; The Long Now, Pt. 2 – Make, Protect, Teach; The Long Now, Pt. 3 – Wink; The Long Now, Pt. 4 –Snip!
PANOPTICON | EPSILON THEORY As Bentham wrote, the Panopticon design was a means of controlling the minds of prisoners or workers through mental force, as opposed to the traditional goal in 18th century prisons and workhouses of controlling bodies through brute force. Just like the warden in Cool Hand Luke, just like Dick Clark with American Bandstand, Bentham understood TEN TIMES FASTER THAN THE SUN'S BEAMS Which ten times faster glide than the sun’s beams, Driving back shadows over louring hills: Therefore do nimble-pinion’d doves draw love, And therefore hath the wind-swift Cupid wings. Romeo and Juliet, Act 2 Scene 5. That’s how Shakespeare describedTHE HORSE IN MOTION
Yes, all four hooves leave the ground at the same time. But it’s NOT in the outstretched flying position. Instead, it’s in the tucked position, which — because it’s not as romantic a narrative as flying — had never been widely considered as an answer. In fact, for decades after the 1882 publication of The Horse in Motion in book form (a book by Leland Stanford’s fellow rich guy THE SPANISH PRISONER Mark Zuckerberg is not The Spanish Prisoner. He's the guy running the con. Libra, the cryptocoin promoted by Facebook, is a classic Spanish Prisoner con. This is how the State and the Oligarchy co-opt crypto. Not with the heel of a jackboot. But with the glamour of convenience and narrative. Bitcoin will be permanently diminished in its social importance by the adoption of Libra and otherEPSILON THEORY
Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn, of Second Foundation Partners, write Epsilon Theory to examine the narratives that drive markets, investing, voting and elections through the lenses of game theory and history and artificial intelligence.BRENT X. DONNELLY
Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021.. Brent writes a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX and has experience as both a sell-side trader (HSBC, Citibank, Lehman Brothers) and BEN HUNT | EPSILON THEORY Ben Hunt is the creator of Epsilon Theory and inspiration behind Second Foundation Partners, which he co-founded with Rusty Guinn in June 2018. Epsilon Theory, Second Foundation’s principal publishing brand, is a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investorsand
WAGE INFLATION ISN'T COMING. IT'S ALREADY HERE. Q3 2020 wages were 6.2% higher than Q3 2019 wages. Q2 2020 wages were 6.5% higher than Q2 2019 wages. These are also facts. I am not making this up. Over the past 10 years prior to the past 4 quarters, the highest single quarterly year-over-year wage growth was 3.6% in Q42018.
RUSTY GUINN
Rusty Guinn is co-Founder and CEO of Second Foundation Partners, LLC, and has been a contributing author to Epsilon Theory since 2017. Before Ben and Rusty established Second Foundation, Rusty served in a variety of investment roles in several organizations. He managed and operated a $10+ billion investment business, led investment strategyfor
AFTER ALL, WE ARE NOT COMMUNISTS 17+. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): After All, We Are Not Communists. If Don Corleone had all the judges and the politicians in New York, then he must share them, or let us others use them. He must let us draw the water from the well. Certainly he can present a bill for such services; after all we are not Communists. WE ARE SECOND FOUNDATION PARTNERS We are Second Foundation Partners. Epsilon Theory began in the spring of 2013 as a series of emails I wrote to myself and a few colleagues, trying to make sense of markets that didn’t make much sense. I decided to post a few of those emails online, and I cobbled together what I grandiosely called a Manifesto, proposing a new way of lookingat
YOU ARE WHAT YOUR RECORD SAYS YOU ARE You are, not a slave, but an indentured servant to those who DO own your public identity. So let me ask you, and I’m not (just) asking about whatever investment record you may or may not have, but I’m asking about every aspect of your behavior, from how you spend money to how you take care of your health to how you participate politicallyGELL-MANN AMNESIA
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK Holmes: That was the curious incident. In “The Adventure of Silver Blaze”, one of Arthur Conan Doyle’s most popular stories, Sherlock Holmes cracks the case of the missing race horse and the murdered trainer by noting that the guard dog did NOT bark on the night in question, revealing that the criminal must have been well known to thedog.
EPSILON THEORY
Ben Hunt and Rusty Guinn, of Second Foundation Partners, write Epsilon Theory to examine the narratives that drive markets, investing, voting and elections through the lenses of game theory and history and artificial intelligence.BRENT X. DONNELLY
Brent Donnelly is a senior risk-taker and FX market maker at HSBC New York and has been trading foreign exchange since 1995. He is the author of The Art of Currency Trading (Wiley, 2019) and his latest book, Alpha Trader, hits the shelves in Q2 2021.. Brent writes a well-known daily FX commentary called AM/FX and has experience as both a sell-side trader (HSBC, Citibank, Lehman Brothers) and BEN HUNT | EPSILON THEORY Ben Hunt is the creator of Epsilon Theory and inspiration behind Second Foundation Partners, which he co-founded with Rusty Guinn in June 2018. Epsilon Theory, Second Foundation’s principal publishing brand, is a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investorsand
WAGE INFLATION ISN'T COMING. IT'S ALREADY HERE. Q3 2020 wages were 6.2% higher than Q3 2019 wages. Q2 2020 wages were 6.5% higher than Q2 2019 wages. These are also facts. I am not making this up. Over the past 10 years prior to the past 4 quarters, the highest single quarterly year-over-year wage growth was 3.6% in Q42018.
RUSTY GUINN
Rusty Guinn is co-Founder and CEO of Second Foundation Partners, LLC, and has been a contributing author to Epsilon Theory since 2017. Before Ben and Rusty established Second Foundation, Rusty served in a variety of investment roles in several organizations. He managed and operated a $10+ billion investment business, led investment strategyfor
AFTER ALL, WE ARE NOT COMMUNISTS 17+. PDF Download (Paid Subscription Required): After All, We Are Not Communists. If Don Corleone had all the judges and the politicians in New York, then he must share them, or let us others use them. He must let us draw the water from the well. Certainly he can present a bill for such services; after all we are not Communists. WE ARE SECOND FOUNDATION PARTNERS We are Second Foundation Partners. Epsilon Theory began in the spring of 2013 as a series of emails I wrote to myself and a few colleagues, trying to make sense of markets that didn’t make much sense. I decided to post a few of those emails online, and I cobbled together what I grandiosely called a Manifesto, proposing a new way of lookingat
YOU ARE WHAT YOUR RECORD SAYS YOU ARE You are, not a slave, but an indentured servant to those who DO own your public identity. So let me ask you, and I’m not (just) asking about whatever investment record you may or may not have, but I’m asking about every aspect of your behavior, from how you spend money to how you take care of your health to how you participate politicallyGELL-MANN AMNESIA
"Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I THE DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK Holmes: That was the curious incident. In “The Adventure of Silver Blaze”, one of Arthur Conan Doyle’s most popular stories, Sherlock Holmes cracks the case of the missing race horse and the murdered trainer by noting that the guard dog did NOT bark on the night in question, revealing that the criminal must have been well known to thedog.
A WORKING NARRATIVE
The future of remote work after the pandemic ends has been a part of the zeitgeist for more than a year. Now it IS the zeitgeist. It is also a narrative battlefield being actively conflated with a half dozen other major social and policy topics. Read moreDEADLY THEATRE
The Deadly Theatre of corporate signaling on Pride Month continues to run rampant, with feel-good rebranding pop-ups in all the geographies where this is a marketing advantageTHE LONG NOW
The Long Now, Pt. 1 – Tick-Tock. The Long Now is everything we pull into the present from our future selves and our children. The Long Now is the constant stimulus that Management applies to our economy and the constant fear that Management applies to our politics. We are told that the economic stimulus and the political fear of the Long Now ET ZEITGEIST: DEADLY THEATRE The Zeitgeist of June 4, 2021. Read more PANOPTICON | EPSILON THEORY As Bentham wrote, the Panopticon design was a means of controlling the minds of prisoners or workers through mental force, as opposed to the traditional goal in 18th century prisons and workhouses of controlling bodies through brute force. Just like the warden in Cool Hand Luke, just like Dick Clark with American Bandstand, Bentham understoodTHE HORSE IN MOTION
Yes, all four hooves leave the ground at the same time. But it’s NOT in the outstretched flying position. Instead, it’s in the tucked position, which — because it’s not as romantic a narrative as flying — had never been widely considered as an answer. In fact, for decades after the 1882 publication of The Horse in Motion in book form (a book by Leland Stanford’s fellow rich guy A DISTURBANCE IN THE FORCE Yesterday, one of Softbank’s largest portfolio companies – Katerra – filed for bankruptcy. Katerra was at the heart of the relationship between Softbank and Greensill, and I think it’s the most viable path by which the Greensill fraud and financial crimes can MEMBERS | EPSILON THEORY We use cookies to optimize our website and our service. Read more THE DRUM MAJOR INSTINCT The Drum Major Instinct. On February 4, 1968, Martin Luther King, Jr. delivered a powerful sermon about the greatness-seeking impulses that are the source of many types of conflict, racism, bigotry and greed – impulses which are precisely those appealed to by social institutions in order to create the Long Now we all inhabit. He also MEMBERS | EPSILON THEORY Loading member’s groups. Please wait. © 2021 - Epsilon Theory. Terms of Service; Disclosures; Privacy Policy; Cookie policy (EU)Skip to content
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THE ZEITGEIST
MARGIN CALL
By Rusty Guinn | March16, 2020
THE PYTHON AND THE PIG By Ben Hunt | March 13,2020
TICK-TOCK
By Ben Hunt | March 12,2020
DON’T TEST, DON’T TELL (10 DAYS LATER) By Ben Hunt | March 8,2020
THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN By Ben Hunt | April 20,2020
ONE FOR THE ROAD
By Rusty Guinn | April18, 2020
EXIGENT CIRCUMSTANCES By Peter Cecchini |April 16, 2020
FRENEMIES
By Peter Cecchini |April 7, 2020
OUR FINEST HOUR
By Ben Hunt | April 2,2020
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE By Rusty Guinn | March31, 2020
THE MIRACLE MAX OF MBS By Rusty Guinn | March30, 2020
WHEN THE STORY BENDS By Rusty Guinn | March24, 2020
GETTING PPE TO HEALTHCARE WORKERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS By Ben Hunt | March 23,2020
THE NON-LINEARITY OF NEED, PT. 2 By Rusty Guinn | March19, 2020
OUR ESCAPE STORY
By Rusty Guinn | March18, 2020
MARGIN CALL
By Rusty Guinn | March16, 2020
THE PYTHON AND THE PIG By Ben Hunt | March 13,2020
TICK-TOCK
By Ben Hunt | March 12,2020
DON’T TEST, DON’T TELL (10 DAYS LATER) By Ben Hunt | March 8,2020
THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN By Ben Hunt | April 20,2020
ONE FOR THE ROAD
By Rusty Guinn | April18, 2020
EXIGENT CIRCUMSTANCES By Peter Cecchini |April 16, 2020
FRENEMIES
By Peter Cecchini |April 7, 2020
#OURFINESTHOUR
INCEPTION
By Ben Hunt | April 14,2020 | 8 __
We’re going to change the world, you know … you and me. It won’t happen the way you think, because you think that someone is going to lead you. You think that someone is going to organize you. You think that someone is going to give you a top-down, political Answer in the form of something to march for or somebody to vote for. Nope. We’re going to create a million points of failure for the system of sociopathic oligarchy. We’re going to create points offailure AT SCALE.
How? With the Narrative Machine.Read more
FIRST THE PEOPLE
By Rusty Guinn | April14, 2020 | 43 __
This is not a chronicle of errors and mistakes made during COVID-19. This is the story about the inevitable, simultaneous failure of each of the institutions designed to operate in our interest. It is the story of how we respond to fragility with resilience.Read more
ET IN FULL
ONCE IN A LIFETIME
By Ben Hunt | March 29,2020 | 38 __
We are led by high-functioning sociopaths, in our politics and our economy, and nowhere is this more apparent than in our war against COVID-19. It’s not a left/right thing. It’s not a Republican/Democrat thing. It’s a power thing. Enough. It’s time for the Pack to howl. Empathy + Minimax Regret is the answer. Because 2 + 2 = 4. Yes, this is a personal note. That’s what this war is for all of us… personal.
Read more
DO THE RIGHT THING
By Ben Hunt | March 19,2020 | 28 __
I’m angry that I have to write this note about the airline industry and how to structure the bail-out of United, Delta, American and Southwest. But I must, because the raccoons and the high-functioning sociopaths are looking to get their private losses socialized and their private gains locked in. Bailout the airlines and their rank-and-file employees? You bet. Bailout the CEOs and Warren Buffett? Not a chance.Read more
LACK OF IMAGINATION
By Rusty Guinn | March14, 2020 | 27 __
The structurally bullish will warn us against failure of nerve. The traders will warn us against hesitation. The structurally bearish will warn us about being unable to shift into a defensive shape. But what we should be worried about now is a lack of imagination.Read more
THE ELTON/HOOTIE LINE By Rusty Guinn | March4, 2020 | 33 __
In 1995 we crossed a line in music. In 2009 we crossed that line in markets. In 2016 we crossed that line in politics. Music charted the way back. Let’s listen to its lesson.Read more
THE NARRATIVE MATRIX By Peter Cecchini | March 2, 2020 | 4 __ New from ET contributor Pete Cecchini … We talk all the time about the informational efficiency of markets. What if the real dimension we should focus on is narrative efficiency?Read more
DON’T TEST, DON’T TELL By Ben Hunt | February27, 2020 | 25 __
The CDC’s Don’t Test, Don’t Tell policy came crashing down last night. So did Trump’s “buh, buh the flu” and “Yay, Containment!” narratives. Now let’s get to work preparing for the fight to come. Not in panic. Not in fear. But with resolve, sacrifice and righteous anger for those who would use us instrumentally for their ownpolitical ends.
Clear eyes. Full hearts. Can’t lose.Read more
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ARCHIVE SPOTLIGHT
WHEN WAS I RADICALIZED? (BOEING EDITION)November 5, 2019
I believe it is impossible to separate the modern management practice of self-enrichment through massive levels of stock-based comp from the modern management practice of investor placation through massive levels of stock buybacks … without regulating one or the otherpractice.
But I’m all ears for any ideas.Read more
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Long-form, short-form and interactive video content are all accessible from the menus at the top of the page.Search for:
ET LIVE!
ET LIVE! – 3.10.2020March 9, 2020
Covid-19 is a fertile ground for narratives and missionaries of all kinds – from politicians to central banks, corporate leaders and financial media pundits. Join us as we discuss them.Read more
ET LIVE! – 2.18.2020February 18, 2020
This ET Live! is all about Coronavirus, except it’s not – it’s all about how institutions who solve for narrative outcomes invariably create bad results in the Real World.Read more
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