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NETECONOFACT CHATS
Latest from Econofact. Population Growth. The Impact of Roe v. Wade on American Fertility (UPDATED) By Phillip Levine. May 17, 2021. The Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion in the United States led to reduced births in the U.S., with larger reductions in some regions anddemographic groups.
IMMIGRANT DEPORTATIONS DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION The Issue: Increased immigration enforcement was a stated policy goal of the Trump administration.Over the course of four years, myriad policy changes ranging from less-noted technical adjustments to over 400 executive actions on immigration changed the way, among other things, of how interior enforcement was conducted. What was the effect on immigrants living in the United States WHAT EXPLAINS THE WAGES OF UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS? Undocumented workers were estimated to account for about 3 percent of private sector GDP in 2011-2013. The hourly wage for undocumented workers is much lower than for U.S.-born workers and legal immigrants — but much of this difference can be explained by differences in education and in other factors. By their very nature, there are noVOTING AND INCOME
The Issue: Voter turnout in the United States is vastly unequal: richer people are more likely to vote than poorer people. If the poor are less likely to vote then they have a lower probability of having their interests and preferences reflected in public policy. HAVE ENHANCED UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS DISCOURAGED WORK COVID-19 had a swift and dramatic impact on the U.S. economy, with many business closures and unemployment skyrocketing to 14.7% in April 2020. Since then, new unemployment claims have remained in excess of 1.2 million each week (the previous high was 695,000 in October 1982) and the unemployment rate remained above 10% in July 2020. DOES CAREER TECHNICAL EDUCATION PAY? The Issue: For the past half-century, the earnings of Americans with no more than a high-school education have stagnated or fallen.And, while workers with college degrees have consistently earned higher wages, a sizable share of students does not complete a college degree.These trends have been accompanied by an increased demand for a more skilled workforce with postsecondary training. WHAT INFORMATION DOES THE YIELD CURVE YIELD? The Issue: Forecasting the twists and turns of the economy is difficult. One set of indicators used to gauge where the economy is headed draws on information from financial markets since the yields paid by financial assets reflect the collective market view of the future state of the economy. An inverted yield curve — when interest rates on short-term Treasury bonds exceed those on longer DO STATE-LEVEL POLICIES IMPACT MATERNAL MORTALITY RATES Maternal death rates in the United States differ across regions and across racial and ethnic groups. Using data from 38 states and Washington, D.C. from 2007 to 2015, we found that maternal mortality ranged from a low of 7.6 per 100,000 live births in Nevada and 8.9 per 100,000 live births in Connecticut to over 27 per 100,000 in Arkansasand
DO IMMIGRANTS COST NATIVE-BORN TAXPAYERS MONEY? In the working ages, immigrants are less fiscally beneficial than native-born working age persons because they earn less on average and thus pay less in taxes. This is in part due to the fact that, on average, immigrants have tended to have less education than natives. The working-age children of immigrants (the 2nd generation) on theother
DO MINIMUM WAGES REALLY KILL JOBS? The Issue: Democrats in the House and Senate have announced a bill to raise the federal minimum wage gradually from its current $7.25 to $15 by 2024. If inflation averages 2 percent between now and 2024, a $15 minimum wage in 2024 would be worth $12.50 in today’s dollars. This increase would place the federal minimum wage well above itsECONOFACT
Latest from Econofact. Population Growth. The Impact of Roe v. Wade on American Fertility (UPDATED) By Phillip Levine. May 17, 2021. The Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion in the United States led to reduced births in the U.S., with larger reductions in some regions anddemographic groups.
IMMIGRANT DEPORTATIONS DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION The Issue: Increased immigration enforcement was a stated policy goal of the Trump administration.Over the course of four years, myriad policy changes ranging from less-noted technical adjustments to over 400 executive actions on immigration changed the way, among other things, of how interior enforcement was conducted. What was the effect on immigrants living in the United States WHAT EXPLAINS THE WAGES OF UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS? Undocumented workers were estimated to account for about 3 percent of private sector GDP in 2011-2013. The hourly wage for undocumented workers is much lower than for U.S.-born workers and legal immigrants — but much of this difference can be explained by differences in education and in other factors. By their very nature, there are noVOTING AND INCOME
The Issue: Voter turnout in the United States is vastly unequal: richer people are more likely to vote than poorer people. If the poor are less likely to vote then they have a lower probability of having their interests and preferences reflected in public policy. HAVE ENHANCED UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS DISCOURAGED WORK COVID-19 had a swift and dramatic impact on the U.S. economy, with many business closures and unemployment skyrocketing to 14.7% in April 2020. Since then, new unemployment claims have remained in excess of 1.2 million each week (the previous high was 695,000 in October 1982) and the unemployment rate remained above 10% in July 2020. DOES CAREER TECHNICAL EDUCATION PAY? The Issue: For the past half-century, the earnings of Americans with no more than a high-school education have stagnated or fallen.And, while workers with college degrees have consistently earned higher wages, a sizable share of students does not complete a college degree.These trends have been accompanied by an increased demand for a more skilled workforce with postsecondary training. WHAT INFORMATION DOES THE YIELD CURVE YIELD? The Issue: Forecasting the twists and turns of the economy is difficult. One set of indicators used to gauge where the economy is headed draws on information from financial markets since the yields paid by financial assets reflect the collective market view of the future state of the economy. An inverted yield curve — when interest rates on short-term Treasury bonds exceed those on longer DO STATE-LEVEL POLICIES IMPACT MATERNAL MORTALITY RATES Maternal death rates in the United States differ across regions and across racial and ethnic groups. Using data from 38 states and Washington, D.C. from 2007 to 2015, we found that maternal mortality ranged from a low of 7.6 per 100,000 live births in Nevada and 8.9 per 100,000 live births in Connecticut to over 27 per 100,000 in Arkansasand
DO IMMIGRANTS COST NATIVE-BORN TAXPAYERS MONEY? In the working ages, immigrants are less fiscally beneficial than native-born working age persons because they earn less on average and thus pay less in taxes. This is in part due to the fact that, on average, immigrants have tended to have less education than natives. The working-age children of immigrants (the 2nd generation) on theother
DO MINIMUM WAGES REALLY KILL JOBS? The Issue: Democrats in the House and Senate have announced a bill to raise the federal minimum wage gradually from its current $7.25 to $15 by 2024. If inflation averages 2 percent between now and 2024, a $15 minimum wage in 2024 would be worth $12.50 in today’s dollars. This increase would place the federal minimum wage well above its23% DROP IN CRIME
Overall crime fell 23% in the first month of COVID lockdown and has since remained lower than usual.ECONOFACT CHATS
Douglas Irwin (Dartmouth College) joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats this week to discuss how ideas about free trade have changed over the last 250 years.TAXING THE RICH
Taxing capital is an important part of taxing the rich. Capital income is more concentrated than labor income, and it is a growing share of national income. Thinking amongst economists about capital taxation has been evolving. In past decades, many economists emphasized the large efficiency costs of taxing capital because capital taxation ECONOFACT CHATS: A BRIEF HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE industry and competition is the force that sort of drives firms to improve themselves. And if you pursue this policy of national self-sufficiency, which Keynes sort of very quickly says, well, won'thave really
CHILD POVERTY IN THE UNITED STATES In 2019, our national Gross Domestic Product was $21.4 trillion. That means that with spending in the range of 0.4% to 1.4% of GDP, we could bring childhood poverty rates to less than 4 or 1 percent. The economic scars of the COVID-19 pandemic could increase child poverty in the coming years. Child poverty was declining up until thepandemic.
WHY IS INFLATION SO LOW? The traditional short-run tradeoff between inflation and economic activity suggests that, over horizons of a few years, low unemployment will boost inflation and that high unemployment will lower inflation, with other factors—such as changes in energy prices—also mattering in certain time periods. This relationship is known as the Phillips CONCENTRATED POVERTY AND THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN JOBS AND The Issue: High levels of joblessness have been characteristic of extremely high-poverty neighborhoods in primarily urban settings. Many challenges stand in the way of generating jobs in these areas. These include low skills among potential workers, inadequate and decaying infrastructure, racial discrimination in hiring, crime and other ills. WORK-BASED RISKS TO LATINO WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES FROM The Facts: Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, Hispanic workers were especially likely to face health and safety risks at work. The five industries in which the largest share of the workforce was Hispanic in 2018, and employed more than 500,000 workers, included landscaping, animal slaughtering and processing, crop production, “services DO MINIMUM WAGES REALLY KILL JOBS? The Issue: Democrats in the House and Senate have announced a bill to raise the federal minimum wage gradually from its current $7.25 to $15 by 2024. If inflation averages 2 percent between now and 2024, a $15 minimum wage in 2024 would be worth $12.50 in today’s dollars. This increase would place the federal minimum wage well above its DO UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS OVERUSE GOVERNMENT BENEFITS The Issue: Concerns that undocumented immigrants impose costs on the public welfare system are a long-standing feature of the immigration debate.During the presidential campaign, candidate Trump's first general election television ad claimed that illegal immigrants were receiving social security benefits—a fact disputed by the Washington Post.On January 25, in his first week in ECONOFACTCORONAVIRUSEMPLOYMENTENVIRONMENTDEBT AND DEFICITSSAFETYNETECONOFACT CHATS
Lack of access to abortion procedures can affect household finances. Women who just missed the gestational age cutoff for an abortion have 78% more past-due debt than similar women who could get an IMMIGRANT DEPORTATIONS DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION The Issue: Increased immigration enforcement was a stated policy goal of the Trump administration.Over the course of four years, myriad policy changes ranging from less-noted technical adjustments to over 400 executive actions on immigration changed the way, among other things, of how interior enforcement was conducted. What was the effect on immigrants living in the United StatesTAXING THE RICH
Tax increases for those at the top can raise revenue from those that have experienced the greatest gains in income and help counter economic inequality. WHAT EXPLAINS THE WAGES OF UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS? Our results show that lack of legal status lowers the productivity and wages of undocumented workers. Without work permits, they face reduced access to jobs, which discourages them from investing in humancapital.
VOTING AND INCOME
The Issue: Voter turnout in the United States is vastly unequal: richer people are more likely to vote than poorer people. If the poor are less likely to vote then they have a lower probability of having their interests and preferences reflected in public policy. HAVE ENHANCED UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS DISCOURAGED WORKUNEMPLOYMENT DISCOURAGED WORKERSDEPARTMENT OF UNEMPLOYMENT MASSUNEMPLOYMENT ONLINE The CARES Act added a $600 federal benefit that increased the generosity of state unemployment insurance. But many factors impact the intensity with which the unemployed seek work. WHAT INFORMATION DOES THE YIELD CURVE YIELD? The Issue: Forecasting the twists and turns of the economy is difficult. One set of indicators used to gauge where the economy is headed draws on information from financial markets since the yields paid by financial assets reflect the collective market view of the future state of the economy. An inverted yield curve — when interest rates on short-term Treasury bonds exceed those on longer DOES CAREER TECHNICAL EDUCATION PAY? The Issue: For the past half-century, the earnings of Americans with no more than a high-school education have stagnated or fallen.And, while workers with college degrees have consistently earned higher wages, a sizable share of students does not complete a college degree.These trends have been accompanied by an increased demand for a more skilled workforce with postsecondary training. DO STATE-LEVEL POLICIES IMPACT MATERNAL MORTALITY RATESCDC MATERNAL MORTALITY RATESCAUSES OF MATERNAL MORTALITYMATERNAL MORTALITY RATE GLOBALLYMATERNAL MORTALITY RATE USAMATERNAL MORTALITY RATE USAMATERNAL MORTALITY UNITED STATES Our research suggests that reduced access to family planning and reproductive health services through Planned Parenthood clinic closures as well as changes in laws that limit abortion by gestational age have likely contributed to higher maternal mortality rates at thestate level.
WOULD CUTTING CORPORATE TAXES RAISE WORKERS' INCOMESCALIFORNIA CORPORATE INCOME TAXCORPORATE INCOME TAX EXAMPLEFLORIDA CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATEINDIANA CORPORATE INCOME TAXSTATE CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATESUS CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATE While there is uncertainty and debate regarding the extent to which lowering statutory corporate taxes to 20 percent might boost worker wages, the CEA's claim that workers’ income would rise by $4,000 to $9,000 is well above the top of the range of consensus estimates. ECONOFACTCORONAVIRUSEMPLOYMENTENVIRONMENTDEBT AND DEFICITSSAFETYNETECONOFACT CHATS
Lack of access to abortion procedures can affect household finances. Women who just missed the gestational age cutoff for an abortion have 78% more past-due debt than similar women who could get an IMMIGRANT DEPORTATIONS DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION The Issue: Increased immigration enforcement was a stated policy goal of the Trump administration.Over the course of four years, myriad policy changes ranging from less-noted technical adjustments to over 400 executive actions on immigration changed the way, among other things, of how interior enforcement was conducted. What was the effect on immigrants living in the United StatesTAXING THE RICH
Tax increases for those at the top can raise revenue from those that have experienced the greatest gains in income and help counter economic inequality. WHAT EXPLAINS THE WAGES OF UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS? Our results show that lack of legal status lowers the productivity and wages of undocumented workers. Without work permits, they face reduced access to jobs, which discourages them from investing in humancapital.
VOTING AND INCOME
The Issue: Voter turnout in the United States is vastly unequal: richer people are more likely to vote than poorer people. If the poor are less likely to vote then they have a lower probability of having their interests and preferences reflected in public policy. HAVE ENHANCED UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS DISCOURAGED WORKUNEMPLOYMENT DISCOURAGED WORKERSDEPARTMENT OF UNEMPLOYMENT MASSUNEMPLOYMENT ONLINE The CARES Act added a $600 federal benefit that increased the generosity of state unemployment insurance. But many factors impact the intensity with which the unemployed seek work. WHAT INFORMATION DOES THE YIELD CURVE YIELD? The Issue: Forecasting the twists and turns of the economy is difficult. One set of indicators used to gauge where the economy is headed draws on information from financial markets since the yields paid by financial assets reflect the collective market view of the future state of the economy. An inverted yield curve — when interest rates on short-term Treasury bonds exceed those on longer DOES CAREER TECHNICAL EDUCATION PAY? The Issue: For the past half-century, the earnings of Americans with no more than a high-school education have stagnated or fallen.And, while workers with college degrees have consistently earned higher wages, a sizable share of students does not complete a college degree.These trends have been accompanied by an increased demand for a more skilled workforce with postsecondary training. DO STATE-LEVEL POLICIES IMPACT MATERNAL MORTALITY RATESCDC MATERNAL MORTALITY RATESCAUSES OF MATERNAL MORTALITYMATERNAL MORTALITY RATE GLOBALLYMATERNAL MORTALITY RATE USAMATERNAL MORTALITY RATE USAMATERNAL MORTALITY UNITED STATES Our research suggests that reduced access to family planning and reproductive health services through Planned Parenthood clinic closures as well as changes in laws that limit abortion by gestational age have likely contributed to higher maternal mortality rates at thestate level.
WOULD CUTTING CORPORATE TAXES RAISE WORKERS' INCOMESCALIFORNIA CORPORATE INCOME TAXCORPORATE INCOME TAX EXAMPLEFLORIDA CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATEINDIANA CORPORATE INCOME TAXSTATE CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATESUS CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATE While there is uncertainty and debate regarding the extent to which lowering statutory corporate taxes to 20 percent might boost worker wages, the CEA's claim that workers’ income would rise by $4,000 to $9,000 is well above the top of the range of consensus estimates.23% DROP IN CRIME
1 day ago · Overall crime fell 23% in the first month of COVID lockdown and has since remained lower than usual.ECONOFACT CHATS
Douglas Irwin (Dartmouth College) joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats this week to discuss how ideas about free trade have changed over the last 250 years.TAXING THE RICH
The Issue: The coronavirus has ravaged the economy, and today’s high unemployment and extremely low interest rates provide ample justification for budget deficits. CHILD POVERTY IN THE UNITED STATES The Issue: The United States has one of the highest rates of child poverty among high-income countries. While government policies have played an important role in improving the material well-being of poor children over the past four decades, much remains to be done. WHY IS INFLATION SO LOW? The Issue: Inflation has averaged just over 1-1/2 percent over the past decade, well below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Such low inflation for such an extended stretch is quite unusual given historical economic relationships. WHO BENEFITS FROM A HIGHER MINIMUM WAGE? The Issue: Raising the minimum wage is broadly viewed as a policy that combats poverty. Most of the focus of the debate over the minimum wage has been on whether raising it leads to job losses, but an overlooked key point is which workers see their wages rise with an increase in the minimum wage.. The workers who benefit from a higher minimum wage are not necessarily those who CONCENTRATED POVERTY AND THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN JOBS AND Many areas across the country have large concentrations of poverty with low levels of employment. Existing policies designed to increase jobs in those areas through incentives for hiring and investment have failed to deliver significant increases in job creation and to raise the incomes of the least-advantaged people. DO MINIMUM WAGES REALLY KILL JOBS? The flurry of recent empirical research on the impact of an increase in the minimum wage has shifted professional views on its effects. Although the issue remains controversial, our reading of the research literature, and reviews by others, indicate that negative employment effects are very small. This evidence suggests that current debates should pay more attention to the positive effects of WORK-BASED RISKS TO LATINO WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES FROM Given the industries and jobs where Hispanic workers are employed, the unique challenges they face to demand for safe and healthy workplaces, it is perhaps no surprise that recent reports reveal proportionally higher COVID19 infection rates and deaths among Hispanic populations.Like many of their low-wage peers deemed essential workers, Hispanic workers are at high risk in the wake of COVID19. DO UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS OVERUSE GOVERNMENT BENEFITS The Issue: Concerns that undocumented immigrants impose costs on the public welfare system are a long-standing feature of the immigration debate.During the presidential campaign, candidate Trump's first general election television ad claimed that illegal immigrants were receiving social security benefits—a fact disputed by the Washington Post.On January 25, in his first week inEconoFact __
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Coronavirus Coronavirus LABOR DEMAND IN THE TIME OF COVID-19 By Lisa B. Kahn , Fabian Lange and David WiczerApril 24, 2020
University of Rochester, McGill University and Stony Brook UniversityTHE ISSUE:
More than 26 million workers have filed for unemployment in a span of five weeks in the United States. Looking beneath the headline numbers can provide a clearer view of the fast evolving situation. Initial Unemployment Insurance (UI) claims together with a novel data source of job vacancies posted on the internet, collected on a daily basis, provide a more detailed account of how the labor market evolved over the last weeks and how it is likely to continue to evolve.Read more__
Coronavirus
COVID-19 IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE, FOOD, AND NUTRITIONBy William Masters
Coronavirus
TRACKING COVID-19 SYMPTOMS AND IMPACT IN REAL TIME: A SURVEY-BASEDSYSTEM
By Abigail Wozniak
Coronavirus
ECONOMIC FALLOUT FROM THE COVID-19 CRISIS ON DEVELOPING ECONOMIES By Megan Greene andMichael Klein
DATA POINT
$100 Billion
In the three months since the onset of the coronavirus crisis, developing countries have experienced about $100 billion in capital outflows, pushing up borrowing costs and making debt servicing moredifficult.
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WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT* Coronavirus
* Immigration Policy * Federal Budget Deficit * Jobs and EmploymentPublished by:
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Coronavirus Coronavirus -------------------------Share
HOW IS THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS AFFECTING THE MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET? By Daniel BergstresserApril 8, 2020
Brandeis University
THE ISSUE:
Over the past month, the municipal bond market has shown signs of unprecedented stress and volatility. Recent intervention by the Federal Reserve included some targeted measures designed to help stabilize these markets, but the ongoing crisis is likely to have some important implications for cities and states, for investors in the municipal bond market, and for others, including people who may expect to receive state and local pension benefits.THE FACTS:
* Interest rates on municipal bonds and volatility in this market have risen dramatically. The graph shows the average interest rate on the lowest risk, AAA-rated municipal bonds that are 10 years from their maturity date, scaled as a percent of the 10-year Treasury bond yield. This ratio has typically been less than 100 percent because the interest on municipal bonds is tax-exempt so these bonds can offer a lower pre-tax interest rate than Treasury bonds. However, in recent weeks it has risen to more than 350 percent, a figure that well exceeds the ratios observed during the worst depths of the 2008crisis.
* State and local governments depend upon this market to fund infrastructure like school buildings, roads and airports, as well as to bridge short-run mismatches between receipts and outlays. Higher interest rates make it difficult for these governments to borrow to meet future needs (and, in some cases, will raise the cost of theirexisting debt).
* The municipal bond market is distinguished from other bond markets because almost half of the debt is held directly by households. The stress that the coronavirus crisis is putting on the municipal bonds market is showing up rapidly in the wealth of households who own them. * In a well-functioning market these bonds will be valued in ways that reflect the underlying flows of revenues and taxes that are behind the promised payments they offer. For example, some bonds are backed by the issuers' ability to raise funds through taxes; others are backed by the revenues from specific infrastructure projects, including stadiums, university facilities, roads, airports, and sewer systems. A spike in bond yields can indicate changes in investors' expectations about the soundness of these payment streams. * The stress on the municipal bond market from the coronavirus crisis, may also reflect factors beyond purely the perceived stream of payments backing up these bonds. The recent fall in bond prices was widespread and occurred regardless of the credit quality of issuers. The Federal Reserve intervened in late March to stabilize the municipal bond market, but interest rates remain elevated abovenormal levels.
* The disruption in the municipal bond market is part of the coronavirus pandemics’ larger disruption to state and local finances and operations. Cuts to state and local services stemming from the pandemic will reduce their ability to spend on the services they provide – health, education, public safety – at a time when the underlying needs for these services is likely to become even moreacute.
WHAT THIS MEANS:
The stress in the municipal bond market affects those who own these bonds and also everyone who depends on roads, public safety, education, and public health – the goods and services provided by states and localities. Furthermore, even though state pensions enjoy powerful legal protection, households that are counting on these benefits, as well as those who depend upon state and local retiree health benefits, may also suffer if state and local finances become sufficiently stressed. Federal Reserve intervention has eased liquidity concerns and brought down rates from their peaks, but concerns about longer-term solvency remain, especially for issuers whose finances were precarious even before the coronavirus crisis.Read more__
Coronavirus Coronavirus -------------------------Share
THE UNEMPLOYED AND ESSENTIAL LOW-WAGE WORKERS AFTER THE CARES ACT By Patricia M. Andersonand Phillip Levine
April 6, 2020
Dartmouth College and Wellesley CollegeTHE ISSUE:
The recently enacted Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security(CARES) Act
significantly increases the generosity of Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits. This ensures that those who are most likely to be hurt are able to meet basic needs during the crisis and have money to spend when the pandemic abates to help jumpstart the economy. However, low-wage workers who continue to work, and whose jobs have become even more valuable to society in the crisis, should be compensated for the inequities they now face.THE FACTS:
* Under the CARES Act, workers eligible for benefits are entitled to an additional $600 benefit per week beyond their usual benefit for the next four months. Mississippi, California, and Washington serve as examples of low, medium, and high benefit states. In the traditional UI system, if someone lost their job in these states, they would receive the equivalent of half their weekly wages in UI benefits, provided their wages were below a state maximum benefit. Under the CARES Act, the system is far more generous; replacement rates — the ratio of UI benefits to pre-unemployment wages — for all workers are now considerably higher than they were before (see chart). * The benefit increase is strongly progressive. A $600 fixed benefit increase is much larger relative to pre-unemployment wages for lower-wage workers. Full-time workers earning $10 per hour will receive UI benefits that are actually twice what they would have earned had they been able to work. * Unemployment Benefits are acting more like stimulus and less like insurance. Typically, policy-makers design UI benefits such that they help workers through an unexpected job loss without reducing their incentives to seek employment. In that framework, replacing less than the full loss makes sense. In the present context, though, this UI provision is better thought of as stimulus – providing generous funds to low-wage workers so that they can return to typical spending patterns after this health crisis ends. * The generosity of the UI benefit increase marks a sharp contrast with low-wage workers who remain employed providing services we need during this crisis. We could not survive this crisis without cashiers and shelf stockers at the grocery store, nursing home aides, building custodians, and the like. According to our calculations from 2019 Current Population Surveys (CPS), all these workers make around $17 per hour, on average. If they were not working, they could collect UI benefits that were 25 to 35 percent greater than their current wage depending on the state they live in. * Essential workers should receive greater pay right now. Occupations which involve greater occupational risk pay more than one might expect based on the educational requirements of the job. Working in a grocery store wasn’t a high-risk occupation up until a few weeks ago. Moreover, workers in these occupations currently provide benefits to society beyond what their firm receives.WHAT THIS MEANS:
In a typical world, we would never support an expansion of the Unemployment Insurance system as extensive as the one that was introduced. It wouldn’t make sense in the context of a normal business cycle. There is nothing normal about our current circumstances, though. The ability to quickly pull out of a full and immediate stop on economic activity is paramount if we are to avoid a prolonged period of serious economic hardship. Increasing the generosity of the UI system as much as the CARES Act does not only makes sense for that reason, but it does so in a way that emphasizes the well-being of lower-wage workers, a policy focus that is often lost. We also support the idea of providing equitable outcomes to other lower wage workers who maintain their employment, because it is important to society that these workers continue to do their essentialwork.
Read more__
Required reading
HOW DO ECONOMIC CRISES END? How do Economic Crises End?by Dan Sichel
CORONAVIRUS AND THE HEALTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY Coronavirus and the Health of the U.S. Economy by Michael Klein andMiriam Wasserman
DO STATE-LEVEL POLICIES IMPACT MATERNAL MORTALITY? Do State-Level Policies Impact Maternal Mortality? by Summer Sherburne Hawkinsand
Christopher F. Baum
Coronavirus Coronavirus -------------------------Share
LIVES VS. LIVELIHOODS? LESSONS FROM THE EBOLA EPIDEMIC By Stephen A. O ConnellApril 5, 2020
Swarthmore College
THE ISSUE:
The West African Ebola crisis that began in late 2013 offers insights that are valuable for the current novel coronavirus pandemic. Among the three heavily affected countries, social distancing was unavoidable given the initial scale of the epidemic. But innovations within the health system and in personal protective behaviors played an essential role both in stopping the outbreak and limiting the economic damage it created.THE FACTS:
* The 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa sickened 28,000 peoplekilling 11,000
.
The clusters of deaths began in Guinea and subsequently spread widely through the tri-country region of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea as people who were infected moved across these countries’ porous borders and from rural areas into the capital cities. The virus then began to appear in a second round of African countries: in Nigeria,Mali and Senegal.
* At the height of the Ebola crisis roughly half of urban workers employed before the crisis in Liberia were without work, as businesses closed and movement restrictions shut down ordinary life. The best the authorities could do was to select among draconian social distancing policies that created large economic costs in return for crucial but limited traction on the growth rate of infections, and to complement these with massive efforts to improve the health-system response. * Health-system improvements are vital throughout an epidemic, first as a complement to distancing in bringing the outbreak under control, and then in allowing a safe return to normal activity. When the countries undertook improvements in the health system, such as the adoption of safe burial practices and the establishment of community care centers, they were
able to reduce the rate of transmission much more rapidly than throughdistancing alone.
* By early 2015, infection rates had fallen back to pre-emergency levels, and health workers could begin focusing selectively on known chains of transmission. This allowed
governments to reduce the intensity of movement restrictions, which they complemented with further health-system improvements. * The West Africa Ebola epidemic also illustrates the value of preparedness and early policy response in avoiding a lives-versus-livelihoods tradeoff. At the beginning of an outbreak there is a window of opportunity to contain an outbreak rapidly and without major economic cost. My colleagues and I compared the West African countries that bore the brunt of the 2014 Ebola outbreak with the three “second-round” countries. In a contrast that was not anticipated at the time,
all three of the second-round countries handled their own outbreak with a very small cumulative caseload and minimal economic damage. We estimated that the lack of a policy head start cost Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone over 10 percent of annual income per person in 2014-15 — the equivalent of nearly three full months of national income over the course of only two years.WHAT THIS MEANS:
The distinction between social distancing and health-system improvements has profound implications for public policy during an epidemic. The appropriate tradeoff between social distancing and preserving economic activity depends on the context. Expert consensus favors sharp and protracted distancing restrictions when the epidemic is spreading aggressively, despite the short-run economic costs these entail. These restrictions protect the health system from collapse and overcome the lives-versus-livelihoods tradeoff by limiting the overall scope of the outbreak. The challenging questions then arise about whether and when policy-makers should loosen these restrictions and even pivot towards encouraging economic interaction. Policies to push health-system improvements are crucial in this context because they make room for safe economic interaction. The West African experience shows the importance of early warning systems, preparedness, and continual promotion of appropriate behavioral responses so infections can be diagnosed, distancing can be limited to the known or likely contacts of infected individuals and the rate of new transmissions can be sharply reduced with little economic cost. The importance of health system improvements for slowing virus transmission and mitigating economic damage, both in the midst of an established outbreak and as the pace of new infections begins to slow, cannot be overstated.Read more__
Coronavirus Coronavirus -------------------------Share
SNAPSHOT OF THE COVID CRISIS IMPACT ON WORKING FAMILIES By Elizabeth O. Ananat and Anna Gassman-PinesMarch 30, 2020
Barnard College, Columbia University and Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke UniversityTHE ISSUE:
The speed with which economic conditions turned as a result of the coronavirus pandemic — changing drastically from one week to the next — makes it difficult to capture the impact of the shock in a timely manner. We use real-time data on hourly service workers and find that the coronavirus crisis has already led to drastic reductions in work hours, income and family well-being.THE FACTS:
* Our sample includes 690 hourly service workers with a young child in a large U.S. city that has had a typical progression of the crisis: it closed schools and nonessential businesses early in the week of March 16, and had several hundred confirmed COVID-19 cases as of March 25. Workers are in retail, food service, hospitality, house cleaning, delivery, and home health care industries. A subsample was contacted for a one-time survey about the effects of the crisis between March 23 and 25 (this subsample included 405; 80% of those contacted). * On a typical day, 67 percent of these parents work a shift; over the last 10 days, that fell to 41 percent (see chart). A majority, 55 percent, reported that someone in the household had been laid off. * The share of parents who felt anxious or depressed _all day_ rose from 6 percent over the first month of our study to 10 percent last week. Children, too, felt worse; the share exhibiting what developmental psychologists call externalizing behaviors, a measure of child mental health, increased from 14- to 20 percent, a 42 percentincrease.
* The federal government, states, and localities have quickly sought to address families’ needs, but we find a gap between announced policies and what families are actually getting on the ground. * But these families need help immediately. Two-thirds of our sample report income declines since the crisis hit, and for over one-third, income has fallen by more than half. Most report that they will be able to pay rent or mortgage for no more than two months and will be able to buy groceries for two and a half months under the currentcircumstances.
* Employer-provided benefits are reaching some families. Even with the new policies of some employers and the government to provide pay for lost hours, however, fewer than half of respondents, 49%, report receiving any pay for lost work.WHAT THIS MEANS:
As the coronavirus crisis has intensified, low-wage working families immediately experienced drastically reduced work hours and layoffs. The economic and psychological consequences for families have been severe. Although employer-provided supports have helped some families maintain income, these efforts reach fewer than half of families, and the broad set of public policies that were immediately enacted have reached even fewer. Vulnerable families’ circumstances will only worsen unless efforts to reach them greatly intensify immediately.Read more__
Coronavirus Coronavirus -------------------------Share
TRACKING THE PANDEMIC’S TRAJECTORY: COVID-19 CASES VS. DEATHS IN THEU.S.
By Hoyt Bleakley ·March26, 2020
University of MichiganTHE ISSUE:
When will the U.S. be able to lift social distancing restrictions and begin to restore its economy? Large policy decisions depend on understanding the scope of the COVID-19 outbreak, its likely trajectory, and the effectiveness of policies to control it. Yet the fast-moving pandemic presents challenges for measurement. The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 depends not just on how many people are sick, but also on the way in which testing is being carried out. Therefore, it is hard to tell how much of the growth reflects the spread of the disease versus increases in the use of testing. Could looking at the deaths caused by the disease provide us with a clearerpicture?
THE FACTS:
* The total number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. recently passed 1000, which remains small relative to the almost 3 million deaths that the country experiences in a typical year. Nevertheless, this new virus is exhibiting exponential growth, meaning that its impact could potentially double in a short stretch of time then, double again in a similarly short stretch of time, and so forth. Therefore, the growth rate is key to understanding the eventual toll of the disease. * It has been common to rely on reports of confirmed COVID-19 cases, which have been growing at about one third per day in the U.S. in the most recent weeks, this implies a doubling of cases about every 2 days. But, relying on confirmed cases is problematic. COVID-19 infection apparently exhibits a wide range of severity from mild to lethal, with little consistency as to what level of severity triggers a test. Recently U.S. politicians and public servants have cautioned that growth in cases was in part being driven by a ramp-up intesting.
* Looking at the number of deaths from COVID-19 provides an alternative measure. A person who dies will be noticed by public-health authorities, who will search for a cause of death. There may be no such search for everyone who is infected, especially for those with moderate symptoms. If a given percentage of people who contract COVID-19 die, then the number of deaths should grow at the same rate as the number of cases, but with a time lag. The progression of the disease implies that most deaths would occur only after severalweeks
after infection, and therefore mortality is a somewhat dated picture of the infection rate. * Since March 4th, COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have grown by around 21% per day. This is lower than the confirmed-case growth of over 33% per day. Nevertheless, it puts the U.S. in a trajectory that is more similar to Italy than to South Korea. * Up to this point, different parts of the U.S. have had very different experiences with most deaths concentrated in three hotspots growing at different rates (see chart). However, the virus is spreading widely across the country, so a large share of the mortality numbers is also coming from areas recording their first deaths.WHAT THIS MEANS:
Currently both cases and mortality are problematic for the measurement of COVID-19: cases because of an ill-defined definition of severity and a lack of adequate testing and deaths because of a time lag between infection and mortality. Ideally, we would like to have large random samples of tests for infection and for antibodies. But, in the meantime, creative approaches to measurement of the growth rate, made with full awareness of the pros and cons of each measure, help shine more light on the enormously consequential decisions currently being made on the basis of less than ideal information. The analysis presented here suggests that the United States is currently on a trajectory somewhere between those of South Korea and Italy, probably closer to the Italian path at this point. Italy took over three weeks to bring its mortality growth rate down to near the (already alarmingly high) peak growth rate seen by South Korea, and Italy experienced nearly ten thousand deaths in the process.Read more__
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