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MANAGING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: 21 MAY 2021 Managing Inflation Expectations: 21 May 2021. Long ago and far away, economists thought they understood the relationship between unemployment and inflation. The prevailing wisdom back in the day: higher (lower) inflation aligned with lower (higher) unemployment. Believing in this relationship appeared to be reasonable for the1960s.
HIGH BETA, SMALL CAP VALUE LEAD US EQUITY FACTOR RETURNS High Beta, Small Cap Value Lead US Equity Factor Returns In 2021. US equity factor strategies targeting high-beta and small-cap value shares continue to post the strongest performances so far in 2021, based on a set of exchange-traded funds through June 9. Invesco S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB) is in the lead with a 36.3% return year to date. 30 | MAY | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Keeping up with the benchmark remains challenging this year for our trio of proprietary strategies. Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which routinely holds all 16 funds in the targeted global opportunity set, is up 8.7% year to date. MACRO BRIEFING: 24 MAY 2021 * Belarus forces airliner to land, arrests opposition journalist * Bipartisan group of Senators reach agreement on infrastructure spending * Biden presidency faces crucial phase with its ambitious agenda * Will consumers continue to spend as economies reopen? * New US daily coronavirus cases fall to one-year low * US existing home sales declined for a third straight month in April BOOK BITS: 15 MAY 2021 Book Bits: 15 May 2021. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. WILL TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN STIMULUS RAISE INFLATION The Federal Reserve has announced unlimited asset purchases and is running ultra-dovish monetary policy. Meanwhile, the federal government is about to roll out a new $2 trillion stimulus package. It all adds up to what is perhaps the most ambitious effort in history to grease the economy’s wheels (or at least prevent collapse). HOW LONG WILL ‘TRANSITORY’ INFLATION LAST? The 3.0% rise is the highest in nearly 15 years. Taking the two charts at face value makes it easy to conclude that the inflation genie is out of the bottle. No one can dismiss that possibility and yesterday’s numbers raise the odds that hotter inflation is more likely than previously thought. But it’s also a mistake to see theApril report
MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
Year to date, GMI is up an impressive 6.4% — higher than all but four of the asset classes listed above. GMI’s performance edge over most of the field this year is a reminder that holding a passive, global mix of betas remains a tough act to beat in 2021. One of the few exceptions: US stocks, which continue to outperform GMI by a widemargin.
WILL FRIDAY’S INFLATION REPORT SUPPORT THE FED’S OUTLOOK The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast via a combination-forecasting model is a touch lower at 2.0% for the annual pace through April, but both estimates reflect a low probability that disinflation will dominate this Friday’s CPI update. The inflation profile looked quite different in last week’s core reading forinflation for
THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Trading at the Speed of Light tells the story of this epic transformation. Donald MacKenzie shows how in the 1990s, in what were then the disreputable margins of the US financial system, a new approach to trading—automated high-frequency trading or HFT—began and then spread throughout the world. HFT has brought new efficiencyto global
MANAGING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: 21 MAY 2021 Managing Inflation Expectations: 21 May 2021. Long ago and far away, economists thought they understood the relationship between unemployment and inflation. The prevailing wisdom back in the day: higher (lower) inflation aligned with lower (higher) unemployment. Believing in this relationship appeared to be reasonable for the1960s.
HIGH BETA, SMALL CAP VALUE LEAD US EQUITY FACTOR RETURNS High Beta, Small Cap Value Lead US Equity Factor Returns In 2021. US equity factor strategies targeting high-beta and small-cap value shares continue to post the strongest performances so far in 2021, based on a set of exchange-traded funds through June 9. Invesco S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB) is in the lead with a 36.3% return year to date. 30 | MAY | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Keeping up with the benchmark remains challenging this year for our trio of proprietary strategies. Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which routinely holds all 16 funds in the targeted global opportunity set, is up 8.7% year to date. MACRO BRIEFING: 24 MAY 2021 * Belarus forces airliner to land, arrests opposition journalist * Bipartisan group of Senators reach agreement on infrastructure spending * Biden presidency faces crucial phase with its ambitious agenda * Will consumers continue to spend as economies reopen? * New US daily coronavirus cases fall to one-year low * US existing home sales declined for a third straight month in April BOOK BITS: 15 MAY 2021 Book Bits: 15 May 2021. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. WILL TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN STIMULUS RAISE INFLATION The Federal Reserve has announced unlimited asset purchases and is running ultra-dovish monetary policy. Meanwhile, the federal government is about to roll out a new $2 trillion stimulus package. It all adds up to what is perhaps the most ambitious effort in history to grease the economy’s wheels (or at least prevent collapse). HOW LONG WILL ‘TRANSITORY’ INFLATION LAST? The 3.0% rise is the highest in nearly 15 years. Taking the two charts at face value makes it easy to conclude that the inflation genie is out of the bottle. No one can dismiss that possibility and yesterday’s numbers raise the odds that hotter inflation is more likely than previously thought. But it’s also a mistake to see theApril report
MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
Year to date, GMI is up an impressive 6.4% — higher than all but four of the asset classes listed above. GMI’s performance edge over most of the field this year is a reminder that holding a passive, global mix of betas remains a tough act to beat in 2021. One of the few exceptions: US stocks, which continue to outperform GMI by a widemargin.
WILL FRIDAY’S INFLATION REPORT SUPPORT THE FED’S OUTLOOK The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast via a combination-forecasting model is a touch lower at 2.0% for the annual pace through April, but both estimates reflect a low probability that disinflation will dominate this Friday’s CPI update. The inflation profile looked quite different in last week’s core reading forinflation for
IS INFLATION STILL TRANSITORY? NEW DATA RAISE MORE 1 day ago · The inflation-is-transitory narrative took a beating in yesterday’s hotter-than-expected report for US consumer prices in May. Even after accounting for so-called base effects (temporary pandemic-related factors driving inflation higher), pricing pressure has accelerated. It’s tempting to BOOK BITS: 12 JUNE 2021 14 hours ago · The Banks Did It: An Anatomy of the Financial Crisis Neil Fligstein Summary via publisher (Harvard U. Press) ore than a decade after the 2008 financial crisis plunged the world economy into recession, we still lack an adequate explanation for why it happened. MACRO BRIEFING: 8 JUNE 2021 * Kamala Harris, in Guatemala, tells migrants ‘Do not come to US’ * US recovers most of ransom paid by Colonial Pipeline to hackers * Fed in early stages of preparing markets for tapering asset purchases * FDA approves Biogen’s Alzheimer’s disease drug * Higher commodity prices are a risk factor for global economic recovery * Eurozone economy contracted by much less than expected in Q1 11 | JUNE | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR 1 day ago · * Bipartisan group of Senators reach deal on infrastructure package * Iran warships sailing in Atlantic * European Central Bank defers on when it might start reducing stimulus program * Weak US dollar is spurring foreign investment in US government bonds * Oil demand expected to exceed pre-coronavirus levels by 2022’s close * UK economic growth picked up in April 12 | JUNE | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR 14 hours ago · The Banks Did It: An Anatomy of the Financial Crisis Neil Fligstein Summary via publisher (Harvard U. Press) ore than a decade after the 2008 financial crisis plunged the world economy into recession, we still lack an adequate explanation for why it happened. THE ETF PORTFOLIO STRATEGIST: 11 JUNE 2021 1 day ago · This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. RISK PREMIA FORECASTS: MAJOR ASSET CLASSES Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 June 2021. The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected risk premium held steady at 5.9% annualized in May, matching the previous month’s estimate. The forecast — performance above the “risk-free” rate – remains well below the realized risk premium in recent history, based onrolling 10
WILL TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN STIMULUS RAISE INFLATION The Federal Reserve has announced unlimited asset purchases and is running ultra-dovish monetary policy. Meanwhile, the federal government is about to roll out a new $2 trillion stimulus package. It all adds up to what is perhaps the most ambitious effort in history to grease the economy’s wheels (or at least prevent collapse). US Q2 GROWTH ESTIMATES DECLINE BUT STILL SET TO BEAT Q1’S The US economy remains on track to post stronger growth in the second quarter, although the pace of acceleration over Q1 has been revised lower in recent weeks, based on a set of nowcasts. US gross domestic product is projected to increase 9.0% in Q2 (real annual rate) via themedian nowcast for
EUROPEAN STOCKS LEAD WORLD’S MAJOR EQUITY REGIONS YEAR TO Shares in Europe have taken the lead for 2021 returns among the world’s main equity regions, based returns for a set of exchange-listed funds through May 26. Over the past month, Vanguard FTSE Europe (VGK) has displaced US stocks as the year-to-date performance leader. At yesterday’s close, VGK THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Finally, some alpha. Two of our three proprietary strategies dispensed some benchmark-beating returns last week (through June 4) after a stretch of underperformance. A third matched the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which continually holds the 16-fund opportunity set(shown in
IS INFLATION STILL TRANSITORY? NEW DATA RAISE MORE The inflation-is-transitory narrative took a beating in yesterday’s hotter-than-expected report for US consumer prices in May. Even after accounting for so-called base effects (temporary pandemic-related factors driving inflation higher), pricing pressure has accelerated.It’s tempting to
MANAGING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: 21 MAY 2021 Managing Inflation Expectations: 21 May 2021. Long ago and far away, economists thought they understood the relationship between unemployment and inflation. The prevailing wisdom back in the day: higher (lower) inflation aligned with lower (higher) unemployment. Believing in this relationship appeared to be reasonable for the1960s.
30 | MAY | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Keeping up with the benchmark remains challenging this year for our trio of proprietary strategies. Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which routinely holds all 16 funds in the targeted global opportunity set, is up 8.7% year to date. MACRO BRIEFING: 24 MAY 2021 * Belarus forces airliner to land, arrests opposition journalist * Bipartisan group of Senators reach agreement on infrastructure spending * Biden presidency faces crucial phase with its ambitious agenda * Will consumers continue to spend as economies reopen? * New US daily coronavirus cases fall to one-year low * US existing home sales declined for a third straight month in April WILL TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN STIMULUS RAISE INFLATION The Federal Reserve has announced unlimited asset purchases and is running ultra-dovish monetary policy. Meanwhile, the federal government is about to roll out a new $2 trillion stimulus package. It all adds up to what is perhaps the most ambitious effort in history to grease the economy’s wheels (or at least prevent collapse). RISK PREMIA FORECASTS: MAJOR ASSET CLASSES Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 May 2021. The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) in the long run ticked higher again in April, rising to 5.9% annualized — modestly above the previous month’s estimate. The current expected return estimate — defined as performance above the “risk-free” rate — is HOW LONG WILL ‘TRANSITORY’ INFLATION LAST? The 3.0% rise is the highest in nearly 15 years. Taking the two charts at face value makes it easy to conclude that the inflation genie is out of the bottle. No one can dismiss that possibility and yesterday’s numbers raise the odds that hotter inflation is more likely than previously thought. But it’s also a mistake to see theApril report
MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
Year to date, GMI is up an impressive 6.4% — higher than all but four of the asset classes listed above. GMI’s performance edge over most of the field this year is a reminder that holding a passive, global mix of betas remains a tough act to beat in 2021. One of the few exceptions: US stocks, which continue to outperform GMI by a widemargin.
WILL FRIDAY’S INFLATION REPORT SUPPORT THE FED’S OUTLOOK The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast via a combination-forecasting model is a touch lower at 2.0% for the annual pace through April, but both estimates reflect a low probability that disinflation will dominate this Friday’s CPI update. The inflation profile looked quite different in last week’s core reading forinflation for
THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Finally, some alpha. Two of our three proprietary strategies dispensed some benchmark-beating returns last week (through June 4) after a stretch of underperformance. A third matched the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which continually holds the 16-fund opportunity set(shown in
IS INFLATION STILL TRANSITORY? NEW DATA RAISE MORE The inflation-is-transitory narrative took a beating in yesterday’s hotter-than-expected report for US consumer prices in May. Even after accounting for so-called base effects (temporary pandemic-related factors driving inflation higher), pricing pressure has accelerated.It’s tempting to
MANAGING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: 21 MAY 2021 Managing Inflation Expectations: 21 May 2021. Long ago and far away, economists thought they understood the relationship between unemployment and inflation. The prevailing wisdom back in the day: higher (lower) inflation aligned with lower (higher) unemployment. Believing in this relationship appeared to be reasonable for the1960s.
30 | MAY | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Keeping up with the benchmark remains challenging this year for our trio of proprietary strategies. Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which routinely holds all 16 funds in the targeted global opportunity set, is up 8.7% year to date. MACRO BRIEFING: 24 MAY 2021 * Belarus forces airliner to land, arrests opposition journalist * Bipartisan group of Senators reach agreement on infrastructure spending * Biden presidency faces crucial phase with its ambitious agenda * Will consumers continue to spend as economies reopen? * New US daily coronavirus cases fall to one-year low * US existing home sales declined for a third straight month in April WILL TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN STIMULUS RAISE INFLATION The Federal Reserve has announced unlimited asset purchases and is running ultra-dovish monetary policy. Meanwhile, the federal government is about to roll out a new $2 trillion stimulus package. It all adds up to what is perhaps the most ambitious effort in history to grease the economy’s wheels (or at least prevent collapse). RISK PREMIA FORECASTS: MAJOR ASSET CLASSES Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 May 2021. The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) in the long run ticked higher again in April, rising to 5.9% annualized — modestly above the previous month’s estimate. The current expected return estimate — defined as performance above the “risk-free” rate — is HOW LONG WILL ‘TRANSITORY’ INFLATION LAST? The 3.0% rise is the highest in nearly 15 years. Taking the two charts at face value makes it easy to conclude that the inflation genie is out of the bottle. No one can dismiss that possibility and yesterday’s numbers raise the odds that hotter inflation is more likely than previously thought. But it’s also a mistake to see theApril report
MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
Year to date, GMI is up an impressive 6.4% — higher than all but four of the asset classes listed above. GMI’s performance edge over most of the field this year is a reminder that holding a passive, global mix of betas remains a tough act to beat in 2021. One of the few exceptions: US stocks, which continue to outperform GMI by a widemargin.
WILL FRIDAY’S INFLATION REPORT SUPPORT THE FED’S OUTLOOK The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast via a combination-forecasting model is a touch lower at 2.0% for the annual pace through April, but both estimates reflect a low probability that disinflation will dominate this Friday’s CPI update. The inflation profile looked quite different in last week’s core reading forinflation for
IS INFLATION STILL TRANSITORY? NEW DATA RAISE MORE The inflation-is-transitory narrative took a beating in yesterday’s hotter-than-expected report for US consumer prices in May. Even after accounting for so-called base effects (temporary pandemic-related factors driving inflation higher), pricing pressure has accelerated.It’s tempting to
11 | JUNE | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR 3 hours ago · * Bipartisan group of Senators reach deal on infrastructure package * Iran warships sailing in Atlantic * European Central Bank defers on when it might start reducing stimulus program * Weak US dollar is spurring foreign investment in US government bonds * Oil demand expected to exceed pre-coronavirus levels by 2022’s close * UK economic growth picked up in April MACRO BRIEFING: 10 JUNE 2021 1 day ago · * Biden warns Russia against ‘harmful activities’ on first foreign trip * Keystone crude oil pipeline project cancelled after Biden rejects permit * G-7 summit set to begin–here’s the agenda * Biden tells UK’s Johnson not to imperil Northern Ireland’s peace over Brexit * US and UK agree on “Atlantic Charter” to cement trade, travel and tech ties MACRO BRIEFING: 9 JUNE 2021 Macro Briefing: 9 June 2021. * Senate passes bill to strengthen US tech competitiveness with China. * Biden ends infrastructure talks; discussions shift to bipartisan group. * Biden to begin first foreign trip with Putin and Europe on agenda. * EU considers ending tariff battle with US during Biden visit. * China’s factory-gate inflationrose
IS THE RECENT SURGE IN US INFLATION PEAKING? Inflation pressures remain relatively high for the US but the rebound after pandemic lows may be peaking, according to the latest update of the Inflation Trend Index (ITI), a seven-factor benchmark that’s designed to provide a degree of forward guidance on the directional bias of pricing activity.. Even if inflation is peaking, the recent increase in pricing pressure may endure. MACRO BRIEFING: 8 JUNE 2021 * Kamala Harris, in Guatemala, tells migrants ‘Do not come to US’ * US recovers most of ransom paid by Colonial Pipeline to hackers * Fed in early stages of preparing markets for tapering asset purchases * FDA approves Biogen’s Alzheimer’s disease drug * Higher commodity prices are a risk factor for global economic recovery * Eurozone economy contracted by much less than expected in Q1MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Excluding cash, everything was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation Index HIGH BETA, SMALL CAP VALUE LEAD US EQUITY FACTOR RETURNS 1 day ago · US equity factor strategies targeting high-beta and small-cap value shares continue to post the strongest performances so far in 2021, based on a set of exchange-traded funds through June 9. Invesco S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB) is in the lead with a 36.3% BOOK BITS: 15 MAY 2021 Book Bits: 15 May 2021. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. US Q2 GROWTH ESTIMATES DECLINE BUT STILL SET TO BEAT Q1’S The US economy remains on track to post stronger growth in the second quarter, although the pace of acceleration over Q1 has been revised lower in recent weeks, based on a set of nowcasts. US gross domestic product is projected to increase 9.0% in Q2 (real annual rate) via themedian nowcast for
THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Finally, some alpha. Two of our three proprietary strategies dispensed some benchmark-beating returns last week (through June 4) after a stretch of underperformance. A third matched the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which continually holds the 16-fund opportunity set(shown in
30 | MAY | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Keeping up with the benchmark remains challenging this year for our trio of proprietary strategies. Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which routinely holds all 16 funds in the targeted global opportunity set, is up 8.7% year to date. MANAGING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: 21 MAY 2021 Managing Inflation Expectations: 21 May 2021. Long ago and far away, economists thought they understood the relationship between unemployment and inflation. The prevailing wisdom back in the day: higher (lower) inflation aligned with lower (higher) unemployment. Believing in this relationship appeared to be reasonable for the1960s.
MACRO BRIEFING: 24 MAY 2021 * Belarus forces airliner to land, arrests opposition journalist * Bipartisan group of Senators reach agreement on infrastructure spending * Biden presidency faces crucial phase with its ambitious agenda * Will consumers continue to spend as economies reopen? * New US daily coronavirus cases fall to one-year low * US existing home sales declined for a third straight month in AprilMAJOR ASSET CLASSES
The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Excluding cash, everything was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation Index RISK PREMIA FORECASTS: MAJOR ASSET CLASSES Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 May 2021. The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) in the long run ticked higher again in April, rising to 5.9% annualized — modestly above the previous month’s estimate. The current expected return estimate — defined as performance above the “risk-free” rate — is WILL TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN STIMULUS RAISE INFLATION The Federal Reserve has announced unlimited asset purchases and is running ultra-dovish monetary policy. Meanwhile, the federal government is about to roll out a new $2 trillion stimulus package. It all adds up to what is perhaps the most ambitious effort in history to grease the economy’s wheels (or at least prevent collapse). HOW LONG WILL ‘TRANSITORY’ INFLATION LAST? The 3.0% rise is the highest in nearly 15 years. Taking the two charts at face value makes it easy to conclude that the inflation genie is out of the bottle. No one can dismiss that possibility and yesterday’s numbers raise the odds that hotter inflation is more likely than previously thought. But it’s also a mistake to see theApril report
MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
Year to date, GMI is up an impressive 6.4% — higher than all but four of the asset classes listed above. GMI’s performance edge over most of the field this year is a reminder that holding a passive, global mix of betas remains a tough act to beat in 2021. One of the few exceptions: US stocks, which continue to outperform GMI by a widemargin.
WILL FRIDAY’S INFLATION REPORT SUPPORT THE FED’S OUTLOOK The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast via a combination-forecasting model is a touch lower at 2.0% for the annual pace through April, but both estimates reflect a low probability that disinflation will dominate this Friday’s CPI update. The inflation profile looked quite different in last week’s core reading forinflation for
THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Finally, some alpha. Two of our three proprietary strategies dispensed some benchmark-beating returns last week (through June 4) after a stretch of underperformance. A third matched the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which continually holds the 16-fund opportunity set(shown in
30 | MAY | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR Keeping up with the benchmark remains challenging this year for our trio of proprietary strategies. Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which routinely holds all 16 funds in the targeted global opportunity set, is up 8.7% year to date. MANAGING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: 21 MAY 2021 Managing Inflation Expectations: 21 May 2021. Long ago and far away, economists thought they understood the relationship between unemployment and inflation. The prevailing wisdom back in the day: higher (lower) inflation aligned with lower (higher) unemployment. Believing in this relationship appeared to be reasonable for the1960s.
MACRO BRIEFING: 24 MAY 2021 * Belarus forces airliner to land, arrests opposition journalist * Bipartisan group of Senators reach agreement on infrastructure spending * Biden presidency faces crucial phase with its ambitious agenda * Will consumers continue to spend as economies reopen? * New US daily coronavirus cases fall to one-year low * US existing home sales declined for a third straight month in AprilMAJOR ASSET CLASSES
The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Excluding cash, everything was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation Index RISK PREMIA FORECASTS: MAJOR ASSET CLASSES Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 May 2021. The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) in the long run ticked higher again in April, rising to 5.9% annualized — modestly above the previous month’s estimate. The current expected return estimate — defined as performance above the “risk-free” rate — is WILL TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN STIMULUS RAISE INFLATION The Federal Reserve has announced unlimited asset purchases and is running ultra-dovish monetary policy. Meanwhile, the federal government is about to roll out a new $2 trillion stimulus package. It all adds up to what is perhaps the most ambitious effort in history to grease the economy’s wheels (or at least prevent collapse). HOW LONG WILL ‘TRANSITORY’ INFLATION LAST? The 3.0% rise is the highest in nearly 15 years. Taking the two charts at face value makes it easy to conclude that the inflation genie is out of the bottle. No one can dismiss that possibility and yesterday’s numbers raise the odds that hotter inflation is more likely than previously thought. But it’s also a mistake to see theApril report
MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
Year to date, GMI is up an impressive 6.4% — higher than all but four of the asset classes listed above. GMI’s performance edge over most of the field this year is a reminder that holding a passive, global mix of betas remains a tough act to beat in 2021. One of the few exceptions: US stocks, which continue to outperform GMI by a widemargin.
WILL FRIDAY’S INFLATION REPORT SUPPORT THE FED’S OUTLOOK The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast via a combination-forecasting model is a touch lower at 2.0% for the annual pace through April, but both estimates reflect a low probability that disinflation will dominate this Friday’s CPI update. The inflation profile looked quite different in last week’s core reading forinflation for
MACRO BRIEFING: 10 JUNE 2021 14 hours ago · * Biden warns Russia against ‘harmful activities’ on first foreign trip * Keystone crude oil pipeline project cancelled after Biden rejects permit * G-7 summit set to begin–here’s the agenda * Biden tells UK’s Johnson not to imperil Northern Ireland’s peace over Brexit * US and UK agree on “Atlantic Charter” to cement trade, travel and tech ties IS THE RECENT SURGE IN US INFLATION PEAKING? Inflation pressures remain relatively high for the US but the rebound after pandemic lows may be peaking, according to the latest update of the Inflation Trend Index (ITI), a seven-factor benchmark that’s designed to provide a degree of forward guidance on the directional bias of pricing activity.. Even if inflation is peaking, the recent increase in pricing pressure may endure. MACRO BRIEFING: 9 JUNE 2021 1 day ago · * Senate passes bill to strengthen US tech competitiveness with China * Biden ends infrastructure talks; discussions shift to bipartisan group * Biden to begin first foreign trip with Putin and Europe on agenda * EU considers ending tariff battle with US during Biden visit * China’s factory-gate inflation rose to 13-year high in May * US billionaires paid little or no tax MACRO BRIEFING: 8 JUNE 2021 Macro Briefing: 8 June 2021. * Kamala Harris, in Guatemala, tells migrants ‘Do not come to US’. * US recovers most of ransom paid by Colonial Pipeline to hackers. * Fed in early stages of preparing markets for tapering asset purchases. * FDA approves Biogen’s Alzheimer’s disease drug. * Higher commodity prices are a riskfactor for
HIGH BETA, SMALL CAP VALUE LEAD US EQUITY FACTOR RETURNS 13 hours ago · US equity factor strategies targeting high-beta and small-cap value shares continue to post the strongest performances so far in 2021, based on a set of exchange-traded funds through June 9. Invesco S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB) is in the lead with a 36.3%MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Excluding cash, everything was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation IndexMAJOR ASSET CLASSES
Major Asset Classes | May 2021 | Risk Review. Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to tick higher in May. GMI’s Sharpe ratio — a measure of risk-adjusted return – rose to 0.82 on a trailing 10-year basis through last month. That’s close to a pandemic high, but still well below the Sharpe ratios forGMI
BOOK BITS: 15 MAY 2021 Book Bits: 15 May 2021. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. 03 | JUNE | 2021 | THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR * Israel opposition parties strike deal to oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu * Global employment recovery to prepandemic level will take years * Congress considering new policies to ease labor shortage * Fed to begin winding down program that bought corporate assets * A United Nations gauge of world food costs rose for 12th straight month in May * Will oil prices continue rising this US Q2 GROWTH ESTIMATES DECLINE BUT STILL SET TO BEAT Q1’S 1 day ago · The US economy remains on track to post stronger growth in the second quarter, although the pace of acceleration over Q1 has been revised lower in recent weeks, based on a set of nowcasts. US gross domestic product is projected to increase 9.0% in Q2 (real annual rate) via the median nowcast for THE CAPITAL SPECTATOR INVESTING, ASSET ALLOCATION, ECONOMICS & THE SEARCH FOR THE BOTTOMLINE
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RESEARCH REVIEW | 27 NOVEMBER 2020 | INFLATION The Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment in an MMT World Emilio Carnevali (Northumbria U.) and Matteo Deleidi (Roma Tre U.)OCTOBER 2020
_This paper is focused on Modern Monetary Theory’s (MMT) treatment of inflation from an open economy perspective. It analyzes how the inflation process is explained within the MMT framework and provides empirical evidence in support of this vision. However, it also makes use of a stock-flow consistent (open economy) model to underline some limits of the theory when it is applied in the context of a non-US (relatively) open economy with a flexible exchange rate regime. The model challenges the contention made by MMTers that measures such as the job guarantee program can achieve full employment without facing an inflation-unemployment trade-off._ Continue reading → By James Picerno | Nov 27, 2020 at 08:02 am EST| Comment
MACRO BRIEFING: 27 NOVEMBER 2020 Supreme Court blocks restrictions on religious gathers to fight virus:CNN
Dr. Fauci worries that Covid-19 will soar during the holiday season:USAT
US Covid-19 hospitalizations rise above 90,000 for first time: WSJ Trump says he’ll leave if Electoral College votes for Biden: CNN Eurozone economic sentiment drops sharply in November: BBG Will Black Friday offer lifeline to struggling stores? AP Has Covid-19 ended the era of Hollywood blockbuster films? BBC Bitcoin drops sharply after reaching record high: CNBC Amazon ramps up its global workforce to over 1.2 million: NYT Disney to lay off 32,000 as virus takes a toll on its theme parks: MW US jobless claims rose for 2nd week; highest level in five weeks: CNBC By James Picerno | Nov 27, 2020 at 07:25 am EST|
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HAPPY THANKSGIVING 2020!It’s
been a rough year, but there’s always something to be thankful for. On my short list in 2020: American democracy survives. It’s taken a beating recently, but the challenges are also powerful reminders of what’s at stake. Judge Billings Learned Hand said it best: “Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it.” By James Picerno | Nov 26, 2020 at 07:35 am EST| Comment
THE DELICATE ART OF FORECASTING INFLATION RISK US inflation was low before the pandemic started and as the nation heads into what’s shaping up to be a rough winter of resurgent Covid-19 the odds appear low for higher pricing pressure in the near term. But as investors, economists and policy makers consider life on the other side of the coronavirus crisis, contemplating the possibility of firmer inflation is gaining traction as a forecastingexercise.
Continue reading → By James Picerno | Nov 25, 2020 at 07:53 am EST| 1 Reply
MACRO BRIEFING: 25 NOVEMBER 2020 Yellen, incoming Treasury Sec, will be key voice in Biden’s economicpolicy: NYT
Biden team lays out foreign policy agenda for new administration: CNBC Biden administration will inherit one of the weakest labor markets inhistory: PLTC
Dow Jones Industrials rise to record 30,000: WSJ Coronavirus cases flooding hospitals in America’s heartland: RTRS US jobless claims expected to hold at high level in today’s update:WSJ
Richmond Fed Mfg Index slipped in Nov but remains solidly positive: RF US consumer confidence falls as coronavirus cases rise: PLTC US home price index’s 1-year gain accelerates to 6-year high: WSJ By James Picerno | Nov 25, 2020 at 06:18 am EST|
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BETA IS A USEFUL RISK METRIC—IF YOU USE IT CORRECTLY In a world awash in identified risk factors, the original quantitative profile of investment risk long ago fell from grace. If you spend ten minutes on the internet searching for research that finds beta to be irrelevant, at best, you’ll quickly line up reading material for a month. But the majority of the criticism focuses on beta’s weakness for parsing individual stocks. By that standard, beta suffers several well-known and reportedly fatal flaws as a risk measure. But applied to asset classes in the context of portfolio design and management, beta’s far from dead. Continue reading → By James Picerno | Nov 24, 2020 at 07:46 am EST| 1 Reply
MACRO BRIEFING: 24 NOVEMBER 2020 Key gov’t agency (finally) recognizes Biden’s win: CNN Biden selects former Fed chief Yellen as Treasury Sec: WSJ Eurozone falls back into recession in November, survey data shows:IHSM
German business sentiment falls again, suggesting Q4 economic decline:RTRS
Chicago Fed president: expects rates to stay near zero through 2024:RTRS
Bitcoin above $19,000 for first time since 2017: BBG US economic growth accelerated in Oct via Chicago Fed index: CF US PMI survey data: “recovery gains further momentum” in November:IHSM
By James Picerno | Nov 24, 2020 at 06:13 am EST|
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COMMODITIES LED A WIDE-RANGING RALLY IN ASSET CLASSES LAST WEEK Broadly defined commodities rose for a third straight week for trading through Friday’s close (Nov. 20), posting the best gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange traded funds. Continue reading → By James Picerno | Nov 23, 2020 at 07:15 am EST| Comment
MACRO BRIEFING: 23 NOVEMBER 2020 Biden team prepares for double-dip US recession in 2021: NYT Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine: ‘highly effective’ at preventingvirus: CNBC
China says it will respond to US admiral’s Taiwan visit: RTRS Hospitalized Covid-19 patients surviving at higher rates: STAT Will Covid-19 unleash pent-up demand? WSJ G20 nations pledge to extend debt relief in 2021: RTRS UK’s four-month expansion ended in Nov as coronavirus recessionreturns: IHSM
Eurozone economy falls back into recession via PMI survey data forNov: IHSM
By James Picerno | Nov 23, 2020 at 06:02 am EST|
Comment
BOOK BITS: 21 NOVEMBER 2020●
How I Invest My Money: Finance experts reveal how they save, spend,and invest
Joshua Brown and Brian PortnoyINTERVIEW
WITH CO-AUTHOR (BROWN) VIA NPR Do you ever wonder how some of the world’s top financial advisors invest their own money? If so, you aren’t the only one. Last summer, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management Josh Brown wrote a blog post titled How I Invest My Own Money that went viral in the finance and investment community. Turns out, people are really curious as to how successful investors build their personal portfolios. This blog post eventually turned into a book with Brian Portnoy called How I Invest My Money: Finance experts reveal how they save, spend, and invest where top investors share their personal investmentstrategies.
Continue reading → By James Picerno | Nov 21, 2020 at 07:47 am EST|
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