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Elections |South Carolina Primary Forecast https://nyti.ms/2I8foqw*
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South Carolina ResultsLive Analysis
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SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY FORECAST Updated March 1, 2020, 10:22 PM ET*
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SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY FORECAST A forecast uses partial returns to estimate an election’s finalresult. Read more
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We stopped updating these forecasts at 11:45 p.m. Eastern time on Sat., Feb. 29. Follow the latest results here.
Joseph R. Biden Jr. has won the South Carolina primary. ESTIMATE OF THE FINAL VOTE Election Needle: South Carolina Primary ForecastWho will win?
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%SandersSandersSteyerSteyerButtigiegButtigiegWarrenWarrenKlobucharKlobucharBidenBidenExpected margin
Range of forecasts-30-25-20-15-10-50+5+10+15+20+25+30 We think >99% of votes have been counted. (Based on 530,231 votes.) Last model run: 4:42 a.m. The candidate with the most votes is considered the winner of the South Carolina primary. ESTIMATED VOTE SHAREBest guess
5%
50% of outcomes
95%
CANDIDATE
Est. vote share
10%20%30%40%
NYT WIN PROB
EVENTUAL WINNER?
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden-
49%
100%
WON
Bernie SandersSanders-
20%
0%
No.
Tom SteyerSteyer
-
11%
0%
No.
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg-
8%
0%
No.
Elizabeth WarrenWarren-
7%
0%
No.
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar-
3%
0%
No.
We think >99% of votes have been counted. (Based on 530,231 votes.) Last model run: 4:42 a.m. NUMBERS TO WATCH FOR WHEN RESULTS COME IN South Carolina polls close at 7 p.m. and usually they report their results quite quickly. In the 2016 Democratic primary, 86 percent of the vote was counted by 9 p.m. In the event of an early call, here are two numbers to keep in mind: * 30The delegate margin Mr. Biden needs to take the delegate lead over Bernie Sanders. * 86,049The margin of victory in the statewide popular vote that Mr. Biden would need to take the lead in the cumulative popular vote overMr. Sanders.
SOUTH CAROLINA POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY Mr. Biden is considered the favorite because of his strength among black voters, who represent a majority of Democratic voters in the state. On average, Mr. Biden leads by 15 points in the most recent polls, and he could win by much more than that in rural, midland and low country counties where nearly all Democratic voters areAfrican-American.
Mr. Sanders might fare better in areas where white voters make up a larger share of the electorate, like the populous but Republican upcountry Piedmont region, or even along the coast in a competitiverace.
WHERE VOTES REMAIN FOR EACH CANDIDATE For places that have not yet reported all their votes, we make an educated guess based on the results so far and what we know about the people who live in those places.Leader margin
Biden
Sanders
Steyer
Buttigieg
Warren
Klobuchar
Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leadingcandidate is ahead.
Where votes have been counted ColumbiaCharlestonGreenvilleRock HillColumbiaCharlestonGreenvilleRockHill
CANDIDATE
Votes counted
PCT.
Biden-
257,096
49
Sanders-
105,370
20
Steyer-
60,209
12
Buttigieg-
43,599
8
Warren-
37,424
7
Klobuchar-
16,710
3
Where we think votes remain ColumbiaCharlestonGreenvilleRock HillColumbiaCharlestonGreenvilleRockHill
CANDIDATE
Est. votes remainingPCT.
Biden-
130
44
Buttigieg-
40
13
Klobuchar-
40
13
Sanders-
40
12
Warren-
30
11
Steyer-
20
7
We think >99% of votes have been counted. (Based on 530,231 votes.) Last model run: 4:42 a.m. ESTIMATE OF THE PLEDGED DELEGATE COUNT There are 54 pledged delegates at stake; 19 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote, and 35 are divided between the state’s seven congressional districts. Candidates must receive 15 percent of the vote statewide or in a congressional district to receivedelegates.
ESTIMATED PLEDGED DELEGATESBest guess
5%
50% of outcomes
95%
CANDIDATE
Est. delegates
102030
WIN OR TIE PROB.
CHANCE TO WIN OR TIE Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden-
39
>95%
Almost certainly
Bernie SandersSanders-
14
<1%
Hard to imagine
Tom SteyerSteyer
-
1
<1%
Hard to imagine
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg-
0
<1%
Hard to imagine
Elizabeth WarrenWarren-
0
<1%
Hard to imagine
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar-
0
<1%
Hard to imagine
We think >99% of votes have been counted. (Based on 530,231 votes.) Last model run: 4:42 a.m. CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRIMARY As measured by total votes. 12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM0%20%40%60%80%100%0.00.20.40.60.81.0BidenBidenRace called12:03 AMRace called12:03 AMWINNING MARGIN
12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM-10%0%10%20%30%40%-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.4NYT estimate +29NYT estimate +29Reported +29Reported +29Race called12:03 AMRacecalled12:03 AMbiden
COMPARING OUR VOTE SHARE ESTIMATES WITH THE REPORTED VOTEEST. VOTE SHARE
Best guess
5%
50% of outcomes
95%
Biden
Sanders
Steyer
Buttigieg
Warren
Klobuchar
12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM0%10%20%30%40%50%0.00.20.40.60.81.0NYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteRace called12:03 AMRace called12:03 AM ESTIMATED SHARE OF THE VOTE COUNTED 12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM0%50%100%0.00.51.0Race called12:03 AMRace called12:03 AM FULL ELECTION RESULTS2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
SOUTH CAROLINA RESULTS2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
Source: Reported vote totals from the National Election Pool/EdisonResearch
By Sarah Almukhtar, Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Matthew Bloch, Larry Buchanan, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Annie Daniel, Andrew Fischer, Will Houp, Jonathan Huang, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine Lee, Rebecca Lieberman, Denise Lu, Jaymin Patel, Charlie Smart, Ben Smithgall, Rumsey Taylor, Miles Watkins, Isaac White and Josh Williams*
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