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Elections |South Carolina Primary Forecast https://nyti.ms/2I8foqw

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South Carolina Results

Live Analysis

Forecast

Precinct Map

Highlights

Delegate Count

SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY FORECAST Updated March 1, 2020, 2:11 AM ET

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SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY FORECAST A forecast uses partial returns to estimate an election’s final

result. Read more

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We stopped updating these forecasts at 11:45 p.m. Eastern time on Sat., Feb. 29. Follow the latest results here

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Joseph R. Biden Jr. has won the South Carolina primary. ESTIMATE OF THE FINAL VOTE Election Needle: South Carolina Primary Forecast

Who will win?

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%SandersSandersSteyerSteyerButtigiegButtigiegWarrenWarrenKlobucharKlobucharBidenBiden

Expected margin

Range of forecastsRange of forecasts-30-25-20-15-10-50+5+10+15+20+25+30 We think >99% of votes have been counted. (Based on 530,231 votes.) Last model run: 4:42 a.m. The candidate with the most votes is considered the winner of the South Carolina primary. ESTIMATED VOTE SHARE

Best guess

5%

50% of outcomes

95%

CANDIDATE

Est. vote share

10%20%30%40%

NYT WIN PROB

EVENTUAL WINNER?

Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden

-

49%

100%

WON

Bernie SandersSanders

-

20%

0%

No.

Tom SteyerSteyer

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11%

0%

No.

Pete ButtigiegButtigieg

-

8%

0%

No.

Elizabeth WarrenWarren

-

7%

0%

No.

Amy KlobucharKlobuchar

-

3%

0%

No.

We think >99% of votes have been counted. (Based on 530,231 votes.) Last model run: 4:42 a.m. NUMBERS TO WATCH FOR WHEN RESULTS COME IN South Carolina polls close at 7 p.m. and usually they report their results quite quickly. In the 2016 Democratic primary, 86 percent of the vote was counted by 9 p.m. In the event of an early call, here are two numbers to keep in mind: * 30The delegate margin Mr. Biden needs to take the delegate lead over Bernie Sanders. * 86,049The margin of victory in the statewide popular vote that Mr. Biden would need to take the lead in the cumulative popular vote over

Mr. Sanders.

SOUTH CAROLINA POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY Mr. Biden is considered the favorite because of his strength among black voters, who represent a majority of Democratic voters in the state. On average, Mr. Biden leads by 15 points in the most recent polls, and he could win by much more than that in rural, midland and low country counties where nearly all Democratic voters are

African-American.

Mr. Sanders might fare better in areas where white voters make up a larger share of the electorate, like the populous but Republican upcountry Piedmont region, or even along the coast in a competitive

race.

WHERE VOTES REMAIN FOR EACH CANDIDATE For places that have not yet reported all their votes, we make an educated guess based on the results so far and what we know about the people who live in those places.

Leader margin

Biden

Sanders

Steyer

Buttigieg

Warren

Klobuchar

Circle size is proportional to the amount each county’s leading

candidate is ahead.

Where votes have been counted ColumbiaCharlestonGreenvilleRock HillColumbiaCharlestonGreenvilleRock

Hill

CANDIDATE

Votes counted

PCT.

Biden-

257,096

49

Sanders-

105,370

20

Steyer-

60,209

12

Buttigieg-

43,599

8

Warren-

37,424

7

Klobuchar-

16,710

3

Where we think votes remain ColumbiaCharlestonGreenvilleRock HillColumbiaCharlestonGreenvilleRock

Hill

CANDIDATE

Est. votes remaining

PCT.

Biden-

130

44

Buttigieg-

40

13

Klobuchar-

40

13

Sanders-

40

12

Warren-

30

11

Steyer-

20

7

We think >99% of votes have been counted. (Based on 530,231 votes.) Last model run: 4:42 a.m. ESTIMATE OF THE PLEDGED DELEGATE COUNT There are 54 pledged delegates at stake; 19 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote, and 35 are divided between the state’s seven congressional districts. Candidates must receive 15 percent of the vote statewide or in a congressional district to receive

delegates.

ESTIMATED PLEDGED DELEGATES

Best guess

5%

50% of outcomes

95%

CANDIDATE

Est. delegates

102030

WIN OR TIE PROB.

CHANCE TO WIN OR TIE Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden

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39

>95%

Almost certainly

Bernie SandersSanders

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14

<1%

Hard to imagine

Tom SteyerSteyer

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1

<1%

Hard to imagine

Pete ButtigiegButtigieg

-

0

<1%

Hard to imagine

Elizabeth WarrenWarren

-

0

<1%

Hard to imagine

Amy KlobucharKlobuchar

-

0

<1%

Hard to imagine

We think >99% of votes have been counted. (Based on 530,231 votes.) Last model run: 4:42 a.m. CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRIMARY As measured by total votes. 12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM0%20%40%60%80%100%0.00.20.40.60.81.0BidenBidenRace called12:03 AMRace called12:03 AM

WINNING MARGIN

12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM-10%0%10%20%30%40%-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.4NYT estimate +29NYT estimate +29Reported +29Reported +29Race called12:03 AMRace

called12:03 AMbiden

COMPARING OUR VOTE SHARE ESTIMATES WITH THE REPORTED VOTE

EST. VOTE SHARE

Best guess

5%

50% of outcomes

95%

Biden

Sanders

Steyer

Buttigieg

Warren

Klobuchar

12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM0%10%20%30%40%50%0.00.20.40.60.81.0NYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteNYT estimateNYT estimateReported voteReported voteRace called12:03 AMRace called12:03 AM ESTIMATED SHARE OF THE VOTE COUNTED 12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM0%50%100%0.00.51.0Race called12:03 AMRace called12:03 AM FULL ELECTION RESULTS

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

SOUTH CAROLINA RESULTS

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

Source: Reported vote totals from the National Election Pool/Edison

Research

By Sarah Almukhtar, Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Matthew Bloch, Larry Buchanan, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Annie Daniel, Andrew Fischer, Will Houp, Jonathan Huang, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine Lee, Rebecca Lieberman, Denise Lu, Jaymin Patel, Charlie Smart, Ben Smithgall, Rumsey Taylor, Miles Watkins, Isaac White and Josh Williams

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