WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (SO I WAS TALKING TO SOMEONE ABOUT So I was talking to someone about livestock futures yesterday and I was like “I know you can get cattle futures and pork futures, but what about chicken? why shouldn’t I be able to buy some chicken futures if I want to invest in chicken?” FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL My rating: 4 of 5 stars This is a sort of broad and ambitious book. The author is an anthropologist and one of the people who coined the term WEIRD (western, educated, industrialized, rich, democratic) to describe the populations most psychological studies are done on. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (SO I WAS TALKING TO SOMEONE ABOUT So I was talking to someone about livestock futures yesterday and I was like “I know you can get cattle futures and pork futures, but what about chicken? why shouldn’t I be able to buy some chicken futures if I want to invest in chicken?” FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL My rating: 4 of 5 stars This is a sort of broad and ambitious book. The author is an anthropologist and one of the people who coined the term WEIRD (western, educated, industrialized, rich, democratic) to describe the populations most psychological studies are done on. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (TESTIMONIALS) “the small Jewish-looking one”–sinesalvatorem “a friend on Tumblr”–slatestarscratchpad “a lot less awful than what I remember of her”–multiheaded1793 “takes a strikingly different

angle from most

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THINKING ABOUT OZY’S RECENT POST Thinking about Ozy’s recent post.. I definitely remember when I first read the Sequences, getting a sort of “world is mad” feeling. But looking back, I’m having a hard time remembering what that feeling was about. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (SO I WAS TALKING TO SOMEONE ABOUT So I was talking to someone about livestock futures yesterday and I was like “I know you can get cattle futures and pork futures, but what about chicken? why shouldn’t I be able to buy some chicken futures if I want to invest in chicken?” FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (MORE AND MORE, I FIND MYSELF More and more, I find myself writing in lowercase, and specifically in that tumblr lowercase style that uses less punctuation and needlessly abbreviates words. When I do it I’m definitely conveying a FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (A SHITTY THING ABOUT BEING HUMAN A shitty thing about being human and trying to form relationships with other humans is that you have to try to read from their signals how excited they are about interacting with you. And you really FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (ATHRELON: WHEN APPLYING TO athrelon:. When applying to residencies, there’s a thing called the “couples match,” where you and your spouse/paramour/best buddy can set it up so as to guarantee that you’ll end up in the same city, at the risk of getting into a slightly less prestigious program in their

chosen specialties.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (NONVIOLENT COMMUNICATION: A Nonviolent Communication: A Language of Life by Marshall B. Rosenberg My rating: 5 of 5 stars I honestly loved this book. I think I might have gained 10 emotional IQ points just from reading it–this week whenever I interact with people I keep thinking about what they must be feeling and what need they were trying to express when they said

that thing.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC This was a really interesting response, thanks! I really like the idea of beliefs being emotional as well as factual, of feeling “yes this is true” being a way to believe things. And I really like the FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE HAD THE This is a good point, and (as someone involved in hiring for tech-ish jobs) I think this is a real tradeoff that exists--we can actually get more minority candidates without lowering the bar by WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THERE IS NO SUCCESS IN ELENA There is no success in Elena Ferrante’s world; one can become a bestselling author only to be overcome by writer’s block, an designer who ends us slaving away in a sausage factory. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (ON THE PLANE RIDE FROM HONG KONG I on the plane ride from Hong Kong I bonded with the middle-aged man next to me about doing all our last-minute Christmas shopping at the Shanghai Tang in the airport FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (WHEN I FIRST HEARD ABOUT NVC THE aneeshmulye said: Yeah, the ‘not responsible for others’ feelings’ bit doesn’t work without the 'responsible for your actions’ part, which was implicit back in the day when he was writing, but needs to be said clearly and out loud now because of the degradation of the culture of personal responsibility. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (ASK) resist microstructural oppression Ask. Theme: Linear by Peter VidaniLinear by Peter Vidani FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THERE IS NO SUCCESS IN ELENA There is no success in Elena Ferrante’s world; one can become a bestselling author only to be overcome by writer’s block, an designer who ends us slaving away in a sausage factory. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (ON THE PLANE RIDE FROM HONG KONG I on the plane ride from Hong Kong I bonded with the middle-aged man next to me about doing all our last-minute Christmas shopping at the Shanghai Tang in the airport FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (WHEN I FIRST HEARD ABOUT NVC THE aneeshmulye said: Yeah, the ‘not responsible for others’ feelings’ bit doesn’t work without the 'responsible for your actions’ part, which was implicit back in the day when he was writing, but needs to be said clearly and out loud now because of the degradation of the culture of personal responsibility. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (ASK) resist microstructural oppression Ask. Theme: Linear by Peter VidaniLinear by Peter Vidani FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I WAS AT MY GRADUATION LAST I was at my graduation last weekend, and the commencement address was basically about twenty minutes of vitriolic insults directed at Trump. And in between burying my head in my friend’s shoulder in discomfort and laughing nervously, I was thinking about the family of this guy in

my class.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (ASK) resist microstructural oppression Ask. Theme: Linear by Peter VidaniLinear by Peter Vidani FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (100,000 HOURS INTRODUCTION) 100,000 Hours Introduction. The average marriage lasts for 100,000 hours. If used well, you can use this time to improve the lives of hundreds of people. A lot of people will tell you simply to “marry whoever you’re passionate about.”. At 100,000 Hours, we think you can do a lot better. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I KNOW THERE’S THIS STEREOTYPE I know there’s this stereotype that doctors are good and lawyers are bad, but I feel the exact opposite? (not that I actually think doctors are bad, medicine is good and many doctors are lovely people, I just have an instinctive aversion to them) FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (SLATESTARSCRATCHPAD: ALL RIGHT slatestarscratchpad:. All right, more really stupid finance questions for Tumblr. Suppose you buy $1000 of oil futures leveraged 100x. If I understand this right, if oil goes up $10, you make $1000. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (IT’S SORT OF A WEIRD SHIFT IN It’s sort of a weird shift in perspective to read the latest SSC post and see the list of people praised for getting things right: all Westerners, many of whom started tweeting about it in mid-February or so, all seemingly distinguished by their ability to do cost-benefit analyses and reasoning under uncertainty. WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THINKING ABOUT OZY’S RECENT POST Thinking about Ozy’s recent post.. I definitely remember when I first read the Sequences, getting a sort of “world is mad” feeling. But looking back, I’m having a hard time remembering what that feeling was about. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THINKING ABOUT OZY’S RECENT POST Thinking about Ozy’s recent post.. I definitely remember when I first read the Sequences, getting a sort of “world is mad” feeling. But looking back, I’m having a hard time remembering what that feeling was about. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I WAS AT MY GRADUATION LAST I was at my graduation last weekend, and the commencement address was basically about twenty minutes of vitriolic insults directed at Trump. And in between burying my head in my friend’s shoulder in discomfort and laughing nervously, I was thinking about the family of this guy in

my class.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (100,000 HOURS INTRODUCTION) 100,000 Hours Introduction. The average marriage lasts for 100,000 hours. If used well, you can use this time to improve the lives of hundreds of people. A lot of people will tell you simply to “marry whoever you’re passionate about.”. At 100,000 Hours, we think you can do a lot better. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I KNOW THERE’S THIS STEREOTYPE I know there’s this stereotype that doctors are good and lawyers are bad, but I feel the exact opposite? (not that I actually think doctors are bad, medicine is good and many doctors are lovely people, I just have an instinctive aversion to them) FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (IT’S SORT OF A WEIRD SHIFT IN It’s sort of a weird shift in perspective to read the latest SSC post and see the list of people praised for getting things right: all Westerners, many of whom started tweeting about it in mid-February or so, all seemingly distinguished by their ability to do cost-benefit analyses and reasoning under uncertainty. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (SLATESTARSCRATCHPAD: ALL RIGHT slatestarscratchpad:. All right, more really stupid finance questions for Tumblr. Suppose you buy $1000 of oil futures leveraged 100x. If I understand this right, if oil goes up $10, you make $1000. WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THINKING ABOUT OZY’S RECENT POST Thinking about Ozy’s recent post.. I definitely remember when I first read the Sequences, getting a sort of “world is mad” feeling. But looking back, I’m having a hard time remembering what that feeling was about. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THINKING ABOUT OZY’S RECENT POST Thinking about Ozy’s recent post.. I definitely remember when I first read the Sequences, getting a sort of “world is mad” feeling. But looking back, I’m having a hard time remembering what that feeling was about. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I WAS AT MY GRADUATION LAST I was at my graduation last weekend, and the commencement address was basically about twenty minutes of vitriolic insults directed at Trump. And in between burying my head in my friend’s shoulder in discomfort and laughing nervously, I was thinking about the family of this guy in

my class.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (100,000 HOURS INTRODUCTION) 100,000 Hours Introduction. The average marriage lasts for 100,000 hours. If used well, you can use this time to improve the lives of hundreds of people. A lot of people will tell you simply to “marry whoever you’re passionate about.”. At 100,000 Hours, we think you can do a lot better. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I KNOW THERE’S THIS STEREOTYPE I know there’s this stereotype that doctors are good and lawyers are bad, but I feel the exact opposite? (not that I actually think doctors are bad, medicine is good and many doctors are lovely people, I just have an instinctive aversion to them) FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (IT’S SORT OF A WEIRD SHIFT IN It’s sort of a weird shift in perspective to read the latest SSC post and see the list of people praised for getting things right: all Westerners, many of whom started tweeting about it in mid-February or so, all seemingly distinguished by their ability to do cost-benefit analyses and reasoning under uncertainty. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (SLATESTARSCRATCHPAD: ALL RIGHT slatestarscratchpad:. All right, more really stupid finance questions for Tumblr. Suppose you buy $1000 of oil futures leveraged 100x. If I understand this right, if oil goes up $10, you make $1000. WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THINKING ABOUT OZY’S RECENT POST Thinking about Ozy’s recent post.. I definitely remember when I first read the Sequences, getting a sort of “world is mad” feeling. But looking back, I’m having a hard time remembering what that feeling was about. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THINKING ABOUT OZY’S RECENT POST Thinking about Ozy’s recent post.. I definitely remember when I first read the Sequences, getting a sort of “world is mad” feeling. But looking back, I’m having a hard time remembering what that feeling was about. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM Fake Charity Nerd Girl. 4 days ago (15 notes) # this blue website. the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I WAS AT MY GRADUATION LAST I was at my graduation last weekend, and the commencement address was basically about twenty minutes of vitriolic insults directed at Trump. And in between burying my head in my friend’s shoulder in discomfort and laughing nervously, I was thinking about the family of this guy in

my class.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (100,000 HOURS INTRODUCTION) 100,000 Hours Introduction. The average marriage lasts for 100,000 hours. If used well, you can use this time to improve the lives of hundreds of people. A lot of people will tell you simply to “marry whoever you’re passionate about.”. At 100,000 Hours, we think you can do a lot better. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I KNOW THERE’S THIS STEREOTYPE I know there’s this stereotype that doctors are good and lawyers are bad, but I feel the exact opposite? (not that I actually think doctors are bad, medicine is good and many doctors are lovely people, I just have an instinctive aversion to them) FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (IT’S SORT OF A WEIRD SHIFT IN It’s sort of a weird shift in perspective to read the latest SSC post and see the list of people praised for getting things right: all Westerners, many of whom started tweeting about it in mid-February or so, all seemingly distinguished by their ability to do cost-benefit analyses and reasoning under uncertainty. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (SLATESTARSCRATCHPAD: ALL RIGHT slatestarscratchpad:. All right, more really stupid finance questions for Tumblr. Suppose you buy $1000 of oil futures leveraged 100x. If I understand this right, if oil goes up $10, you make $1000. WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they

so choose

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THINKING ABOUT OZY’S RECENT POST Thinking about Ozy’s recent post.. I definitely remember when I first read the Sequences, getting a sort of “world is mad” feeling. But looking back, I’m having a hard time remembering what that feeling was about. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they

so choose

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL etirabys: (Loose bundle of thoughts on a theme) Literature about drug addiction is weird. There’s this real experience in the world people have that’s psychologically gripping, sometimes life-and-death. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THINKING ABOUT OZY’S RECENT POST Thinking about Ozy’s recent post.. I definitely remember when I first read the Sequences, getting a sort of “world is mad” feeling. But looking back, I’m having a hard time remembering what that feeling was about. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL worldoptimization:. worldoptimization:. ok dumb question what is the best current research on long-term effects of COVID? I haven’t really been following COVID discourse much for several months but like we have enough data by now to know like what percentage of people by age group, etc are experiencing various symptoms six months later,

right?

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL also, here are some really good country songs: When It Rains It Pours, Luke Combs: I don’t know of any song that does a better job of “take sadness and transmute it into pure joy.” like there are a lot of songs that are like “I was sad about this breakup, but now I’m doing better.” harder to pull off “I was sad about this breakup and that was dumb because it was awesome and life FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL ("I’M NOT SURE HOW TO BE CATHOLIC "I’m not sure how to be Catholic in an authentic way without believing." I'd be really curious to hear any further thoughts you might have on this? The backstory is that when I was a kid I was

pretty

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (THEUNITOFCARING: I’VE GOTTEN A LOT theunitofcaring:. I’ve gotten a lot of really interesting reactions to my post about how yes, people actually care that there are kids in detention camps, and it’s unhelpful to try to model them by imagining they’re just pretending to care so they look good.. A lot of people are still not quite grasping the thing I wanted to say, so I wanted to try another analogy that might resonate. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL the difference between IP culture in trad finance vs crypto is wild. when I worked in trad finance I would never have dreamt of telling anyone outside of work what I was working on, even though in retrospect a lot of it was just like, dumb intern projects or whatever WORLDOPTIMIZATION.TUMBLR.COM the great thing about tumblr is the contrast between how dead it feels and how ultimately public it is. when you’re posting it really feels like you’re sending your words out into the void, for your five friends who are still on tumblr to perhaps read and comment on if they

so choose

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (AS OF LAST WEEK, I’VE LIVED IN THE As of last week, I’ve lived in the Bay Area for a year. This feels like an intrinsically significant milestone, much more so than recent birthdays or New Years, so I feel motivated to reflect on the past

year.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I’VE BEEN HIRING AND MANAGING I’ve been hiring and managing people for a year or so now, and it’s been pretty interesting to see what things turn out to be important in employees. (obviously this is only from my experience; I FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I WAS AT MY GRADUATION LAST I was at my graduation last weekend, and the commencement address was basically about twenty minutes of vitriolic insults directed at Trump. And in between burying my head in my friend’s shoulder in discomfort and laughing nervously, I was thinking about the family of this guy in

my class.

FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (ASK) resist microstructural oppression Ask. Theme: Linear by Peter VidaniLinear by Peter Vidani FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (100,000 HOURS INTRODUCTION) The average marriage lasts for 100,000 hours. If used well, you can use this time to improve the lives of hundreds of people. A lot of people will tell you simply to “marry whoever you’re passionate FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (I KNOW THERE’S THIS STEREOTYPE I know there’s this stereotype that doctors are good and lawyers are bad, but I feel the exact opposite? (not that I actually think doctors are bad, medicine is good and many doctors are lovely people, I just have an instinctive aversion to them) FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (IT’S SORT OF A WEIRD SHIFT IN It’s sort of a weird shift in perspective to read the latest SSC post and see the list of people praised for getting things right: all Westerners, many of whom started tweeting about it in mid-February or so, all seemingly distinguished by their ability to do cost-benefit analyses and reasoning under uncertainty. FAKE CHARITY NERD GIRL (SLATESTARSCRATCHPAD: ALL RIGHT slatestarscratchpad:. All right, more really stupid finance questions for Tumblr. Suppose you buy $1000 of oil futures leveraged 100x. If I understand this right, if oil goes up $10, you make $1000. About    Testimonials     Ask

Likes

Fake Charity Nerd Girl → resist microstructural oppression

*

1 week ago (12 notes) #q u a r t e r l y c a p i t a l i s m I keep hearing people equating the stock market being down 10% with the world economy losing 10% of its value, or stuff like that. But I don’t think that’s the right comparison. I think the 2008 recession cost the economy something like 5-10% of its long-term value. There were one of two years of below average growth (depending on if you’re looking at the US or the world), then one year of negative growth (2009), then things mostly returned to baseline. But the S&P 500 was down 50% in 2008. Were people just bad at predicting how bad the recession would be? No, I think what’s going on is that in a crisis: * volatility is higher * people’s risk tolerance is lower * people’s return on capital is higher and these all mean that the premium you can get paid to hold risky assets goes up, ie stocks go down. Does this mean there’s a trade to do? Well, yes, I think buying stocks in a crash is a positive EV trade on a year timescale or something. But it’s also risky; they’re much more likely than usual to go down a lot more, and cause you to get liquidated or lose a bunch of money, at a time when you’re much more likely than average to lose your job or experience other shocks that might create a need for capital. Matt Levine said something about this the other day:“Sure maybe a good time to buy stocks is when everyone is selling, but if people are pulling money from your fund and brokers are refusing to provide leverage, you’ll probably be selling too.“ But yeah, I don’t think the stock market being down 15% is nearly as bad as losing 15% of the future economic value in the world. If the average annual return of the S&P 500 is 8%, then a 3x in expected volatility should cause that alone, I don’t think volatility for the year is up that much (short term VIX is). But I think that and similar factors, rather than changes in expected future cash flows from the economy, accounts for the majority of the move in crashes.

*

1 week ago (7 notes)

#gossip girl

honestly “Serena or Blair?” is just such a fundamental question to the point that like, I don’t think anyone who answers Serena and I are ever going to fully get each other

*

1 week ago (17 notes) #q u a r t e r l y c a p i t a l i s m

#coronavirus cw

further updates in “worldoptimization is annoyed about Efficient Market discourse”: https://www.facebook.com/robert.wiblin/posts/884145899415 this is like, the opposite of complaining about Predictit markets on Bloomberg being wrong. the problem there is that there’s just not enough money to make it clearly worth worrying about. that’s not a problem if you think you can predict the S&P 500! if you can do that you can make arbitrary amounts of money, limited only by your capital and your risk tolerance. sure, maybe you, random internet user, don’t have immediate access to a ton of capital. but if you’re smart and motivated, you can find ways to get it. not just to pick on this post, but I feel like a common reaction I’m seeing is “lol, guess markets aren’t so efficient after all.” when the right reaction is somewhere between being pissed that you missed out on this opportunity (if you did), and being excited because this is an update toward you and other smart people who share your values being able to make lots of money easily

*

2 weeks ago (62 notes) #q u a r t e r l y c a p i t a l i s m

worldoptimization

:

> worldoptimization

> :

>

>>  My company tries to hire the best person we can find for any given >>  job. And it just so happens that a lot of the best people turn out >>  to not be American. Add to that the fact that we’re running a >>  global business marketing to customers all over the world where >>  local expertise can be useful, and you end up with employees from >>  all over: US, Canada, Australia, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong, >>  mainland China, etc.

>>

>>  And all we want is a place in the world where we can all stay for >>  an extended period of time and work together, and it seems crazy >>  that it’s so hard! Immigration laws are weird.

>

> Like things that have happened in the four months since I moved to

> Hong Kong:

>

>     * walking to work and passing smashed and burned-out storefronts > from the previous night’s riots >     * my coworkers getting tear gassed >     * having to get my temperature checked every time I want to enter > my apartment building >     * apparently there’s a toilet paper shortage now

>

> and yet Hong Kong is still just clearly a better place for us to be > running a business than the US, on many dimensions. I’m impressed > how badly the US has fucked this up, and surprised by what > proportion of world-changing startups are nonetheless headquartered

> there.

a-bell-to-rise-and-die > can you talk more about how hong kong is a better place to run a > business? is this mostly a regulatory environment thing or something

> else?

Yeah, the US just has so many regulations. Some of them, like caps on H1B visas, I really disagree with but at least I kind of understand. I think laws against what is essentially a transaction between two consenting people are a priori likely to be bad, and this issue feels like something there should even be bipartisan agreement on–but also immigration is a hot-button issue, and I guess people have a lot of feelings about it. But then there’s other areas where no one in the public is even paying attention to them, and it’s clear the process of creating regulations is not anything like “find problems, try to fix them” or even “punish things that public opinion thinks are bad.” It’s “I am a regulator in the Department of Regulating X, and so I am going to write some regulations on X.” And that’s if you’re lucky; the more likely case is that they haven’t written any regulations on X at all yet, because X has only been around for five years, but they are studying X closely and in another year they will emerge with a case against a bunch of people doing X because _obviously _X falls under some definition of wire fraud or something. So if you want to do anything remotely innovative you have to hire a bunch of expensive lawyers who will patiently repeat to you that no, there is actually no law here you can just follow and be good, there’s a bunch of competing overlapping heuristics and there’s industry standards and there’s vaguely related historical precedents and at the end of the day you make a guess and hope for the best. And of course, in addition to the federal government there’s fifty different states that all want to be special so they all make their own different regulations. Sure, the Hong Kong government isn’t perfect, they might resort to authoritarian measures to quell protests or whatever. But at least that keeps them busy, you know? The US government clearly just has _so much_ time on their hands.

*

3 weeks ago (22 notes)

#personal

#crypto social conservative blogging when I first started my foray into poly, I thought of it as a radical break from my trad past, but tbh I’ve come to decide the only acceptable style of poly is best characterized as something like “imperial Chinese harem” none of this non-hierarchical bullshit; everyone should have a ranking of their partners, people should know where they fall on the ranking, and there should be vicious power struggles for the higher ranks

*

3 weeks ago (5 notes) #happy free confused and lonely at the same time I only bought this personality so you could take it off

*

3 weeks ago (23 notes)

#personal

I think an important fact, that I get wrong way too often, is that other people are never thinking about you nearly as much as you think

they are.

other person: I wish someone had done X me: what does that mean? Well, the only people who could have done it are me and A, and A definitely couldn’t have done it because of B, so they must mean me. But they know I didn’t do X because of Y, so that must mean they think I shouldn’t do Y … so they must think I should do Z instead of Y? But that implies such a low value on my time compared to C’s … oh god, am I really miscalibrated on that? what they were actually thinking: it sucked for me personally that no one did X, and I’m sad about that

*

4 weeks ago (13 notes)

#coronavirus cw

I haven’t been following it that closely so I’m still kinda confused about how the coronavirus fits into the culture wars my vague impression is that: * social justice-y people are being contrarian by saying that it’s

not a big deal

* tech/libertarian people are being metacontrarian by saying that it is a big deal and we should all be freaking out about it I’m friends with more of the latter so seeing more of the latter discourse. And even though I think people think we should be freaking out, I’m not really sure what that means–is it jut that we should acknowledge that this is an important societal issue? Or do they think that it’s worth my time for me to take actions that decrease my personal risk of coronavirus?

*

4 weeks ago (11 notes) #listen to economists they know things #q u a r t e r l y c a p i t a l i s m https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1228668492972462083 I find Robin Hanson’s reaction here … not wrong really (it’s true that markets are good sources of information! and it’s good to bet on your beliefs!) but sort of amusingly quaint economist: are you saying … a Market … is Wrong me, a Market Professional: yes yes I know! there are lots of markets that are wrong, and that market is on my list already, but it’s behind about a hundred others, and I’m trying to fix them all, but also I need to like sleep okay

*

1 month ago (62 notes)

worldoptimization

:

> My company tries to hire the best person we can find for any given > job. And it just so happens that a lot of the best people turn out > to not be American. Add to that the fact that we’re running a > global business marketing to customers all over the world where > local expertise can be useful, and you end up with employees from > all over: US, Canada, Australia, Europe, Japan, Hong Kong, mainland

> China, etc.

>

> And all we want is a place in the world where we can all stay for an > extended period of time and work together, and it seems crazy that > it’s so hard! Immigration laws are weird. Like things that have happened in the four months since I moved to

Hong Kong:

* walking to work and passing smashed and burned-out storefronts from the previous night’s riots * my coworkers getting tear gassed * having to get my temperature checked every time I want to enter my

apartment building

* apparently there’s a toilet paper shortage now and yet Hong Kong is still just clearly a better place for us to be running a business than the US, on many dimensions. I’m impressed how badly the US has fucked this up, and surprised by what proportion of world-changing startups are nonetheless headquartered there.

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