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HISTORY OF MONEY
By Asad Zaman
October 12, 2019
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An Islamic WorldView Radio Islam, South Africa 14m Interview of Dr. AsadZaman
by Mufti Yusuf Moosagie on Tuesday, 8 Oct 2018, at 9:30am South Africa time and 12:30am Pakistan Time Q1: WHAT IS MONEY? 0:20 to 2:22 This is a deep and difficult Question. BUT WHY is it so complex? 50 people own more than half planetary wealth. They cannot exploit us WITHOUT our consent. Our consent is creating by feeding us FALSE theories about the nature of money. Today, Ph.D.’s from Harvard learn and propagate false theories which make it impossible for us to understand how the current monetary financial systems are used toexploit us.
The KEY question to ask, to unravel the mystery, is “Who has the power to CREATE Money?” We must ‘follow the money’ to find the answer. For more details see The Battle for the Control of Money.
Q2: HOW HAS THE NATURE OF…View original post
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CENTRAL BANK HISTORY (3/5) 1914-1980By Asad Zaman
October 9, 2019
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This series of posts is based on a single lecture (Lecture 13 ofAdvanced Macro II
) exploring
the evolving functions of Central Banks through time. It goes through a vast amount of material in a very short time, and hence is a very sketchy treatment. This is the 3rd post, which deals with the period from WW! to the 1980s. The 15m segment of Lecture 13 dealing with this time period is linked below. The writeup below is a somewhat edited and abbreviated version of: Monetary Policy from 1914 to 1980s BACKGROUND: Central Banks were created to provide funding for wars, and
were extremely successful at this function. When wealth is measured in gold, then Mercantilism is the natural economic theory – we use trade to get gold from foreigners. If this fails, wars can be used to acquire the gold by force. European history is marked by nearly constant warfare, even after the end of religious wars (Peace of Westphalia 1648). The Gold Standard is inherently a zero-sum, adversarial system of trade. Polanyi (The Great Transformation) writes that “The nineteenth century produced a phenomenon unheard of in the annals of Western civilization, namely, a hundred years’peace
—1815-1914”.
The main explanation for this is the transnational character of the Central Banks. The 19th Century was devoted to the colonization of the globe by Europe. In this effort, the Lords of Finance found transnational cooperation useful, and wars inconvenient. Polanyi describes the “sudden change” when patriotism went from being a great virtue to a barbaric relic of the past – this change in public sentiment was created by the interest in maintaining peace in Europe by _haute finance_. Wars among the European powers did not make sense when financial and material power could be used to capture the resources of the entire planet. By the early 20th Century, about 85% of the globe had fallen under the influence of European powers. The internal dynamics of capitalism seek continuous expansion, and exhaustion of global frontiers led naturally to World War 1 in 1914. What is worth noting is that it was high finance that created the wars of the 18th Century, and the same force which produced the peace ofthe 19th. Read More
UNDERSTANDING STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONSBy Asad Zaman
October 4, 2019
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In line with the pedagogical mission of this blog, I will be writing up a sequence of posts which explain the concept of a statistical distribution. As has been pointed out by numerous authors, a fundamental mistake in understanding concepts of uncertainty and probability was made in the early 20th Century,
when views of Keynes and Knight were rejected, and ideas of Ramsey, De-Finetti, and other subjectivists were accepted. To set things right, we have start from scratch, and build up the concept of probability on new foundations. These posts are an attempt at the first steps in this direction. I am reproducing this post from the original posting on WEA Pakistan Chapter In his Guide to Econometrics, Peter Kennedy writes that, even though the concept of distribution of random variables is the most basic and the most important concept at the foundation of all of statistics and econometrics, very few students actually understand what this means. My own teaching experience with students who have taken statistics and econometrics courses confirm this observation – despite its fundamental importance, very few understand it. The goal of this sequence of posts is to explain this concept in the simplest cases, and in the simplest way, in the hope of fixing this problem. A Very Important reason for the confusion is that there are actually FOUR different concepts of distribution. The FIRST concept refers to the distribution of characteristics within a parent population. This is the only REAL distribution – that is, this distribution exists in external reality, and is objective and concrete, and the same for all. The SECOND concept refers to a THEORETICAL distribution, which can be used to provide mathematically convenient APPROXIMATIONS to real distributions. These theoretical distributions DO NOT EXIST in external reality. These are convenient simplifications and idealizations which exist in our minds, but not in the real world. The example is that of a Euclidean line which is perfectly straight from minus infinity to plus infinity. It is so infinitely long that it cannot fit in our finite universe, and can only exist in our imagination. The theoretical distributions are exactly of this nature – idealizations which exist in our imagination, but not in the real world. The THIRD and FOURTH concepts are statistical and relate to repeated independent random draws from parent populations. These create random variables which have two types of distributions. The problem of understanding for students arises from the problem that Teachers fail to differentiate between different concepts, and fail to build up the complex concept from the basic and elementary parts. This FIRST deals with the simplest case of a REAL DISTRIBUTION of characteristics within a REAL population, which does not involve any concepts of randomness or probability.REAL DISTRIBUTIONS
The first type of distribution, which is very easy to understand, is the only one which actually exists in the Real World. All the other three concepts are imaginary – they exist in a world of theory, which exists only within our imagination, and does not have a counterpart in reality. Our planned course in Real Statistics(see
also RSIA 1
, RSIA
2
, RSIA
3
,
and RSIA 4
)
will differentiate strongly between real world concepts and imaginary concepts. In order to understand “real distributions” we start with the concept of a PARENT POPULATION. This is the target of our statistical inference procedures. That is, the goal of our statistical efforts is to learn about the _parent population_. It is convenient to think of “population” in literal terms as a population of human beings, although it can any collection of real world objects. We are interested in studying the _characteristics_ of the members of thepopulation
Read More
CENTRAL BANK HISTORY (2/5) 1814-1914 HUNDRED YEARS PEACEBy Asad Zaman
September 21, 2019
history of economic thought,
macroeconomics and finance,
monetary theory
3 Comments
In previous post on the founding of the Bank of England, we have explained that Central Banks were created to provide financing for wars. In fulfilling this role, they had several advantages over the state, enabling them to get credit, and get it at low interest rates. For a number of reasons, this was not possible for sovereign states. See Origins of Central Banking for historical details about the creation of the Bank of England. Accompanying post on Monetization, Maturity Transformation, andMMT
explains the dramatic differences between appearances and reality about exactly how banks function. That the main function of Central Banks was financing of wars, and that they succeeded at this function very well, is empirically established by Paul Poast in “ CentralBanks at War
”.
One of the unique features of this virtually constant fighting between the “great powers” of Europe was that no one party could dominate the others, although many attempts were made. This was due to the Balance of Power mechanism, whereby when any one power seemed to be acquiring too much control, the others would combine against it, to prevent this from happening. A consequence of this continuous fighting with no single victor was a “Military Revolution”, which was not just in weapons and battle tactics, but in finding ways of financing the enormously expensive methods of modern warfare that were invented in the process. For a detailed historical discussion, see Paul Kennedy “ Rise and Fall of Great Powers”.
Central Banks are an important part of this story, in terms of creation of modern methods of financing warfare. This post provides a detailed explanation of concepts covered briefly in the 15m videolecture:
The last of the major wars between the Great Powers ended in 1814 with the defeat of Napolean at Waterloo. After this, a century of peace between the Great Powers ensued, until the outbreak of the first World War in 1914. See Hundred Years’ Peace.
Karl Polanyi writes that this was due to the emergence of a peace interest – _haute finance_. The Central Banks, established to give loans to states to fund wars, were globally connected. They found it more profitable to maintain peace, and benefit from global trade and investment, rather than provide funding for wars. In particular, avoidance of direct conflicts, and investments in the colonies became a larger priority. Over the hundred years of peace, the functions of Central Banks evolved and changed. As this happened, the theory of Central Banking was also developed in the light of accumulating experience. Read More 1ST COLLOQUIUM ON ECONOMICS EDUCATION: ENHANCING PLURALISM IN MALAYSIA By Maria Alejandra MadiSeptember 20, 2019
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To understand economics means to be equipped with the intellectual tools allowing us to appreciate the dynamic and complex nature of the capitalist markets. This understanding can be better acquired through engaging on the importance of pluralism in economic education, and reviewing critical economic issues from alternative perspectives. The _Center for Market Education_ invites to submit abstracts for the 1ST COLLOQUIUM ON ECONOMICS EDUCATION which will be held at The Saujana Hotel (www.saujanahotels.com) in Kuala Lumpur, MALAYSIA, on 10-12 December 2019. The theme of the conference is Issues in Contemporary Economics Education. Abstracts can deal with the following topics: * issues deriving from a standardized economics education and in particular with the unique predominance of the neoclassical paradigmafter World War II;
* the enrichment for students and the academic community that can derive from a pluralistic approach in general and from the contributions that can be delivered by specifics heterodox schools; * the importance of economic history and history of economic thought for a sound economic analysis; * the importance of epistemological foundations and multidisciplinarity. The event is planned as a colloquium and not as a traditional academic conference. Abstracts and/or papers will be distributed in advance in order to facilitate an interactive discussion during the colloquium. Ten papers will be selected for presentation on the basis of the abstracts. Conference participation is free of charge and the _Center for Market Education_ will cover accommodation (two nights) and meal expenses, while the travel expenses are covered by theparticipants.
The papers can be submitted after the conference for publication on MarketEdu, the official journal promoted by the C_enter for Market Education_ (www.marketedu.ideas.org.my) that is an academic and educational initiative supported by the _Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs_ (IDEAS). The Colloquium is peculiarly designed for: academicians in the field of economics and related social sciences and post-graduate students. ABSTRACTS CAN BE SUBMITTED TO CARMELO@IDEAS.ORG.MY BEFORE 1 NOVEMBER2019.
GOIND DIGITAL: THE FORCES SHAPING THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS AND LABOUR – CALL FOR PAPERS FOR A NEW WEA CONFERENCE IS OPEN! By Malgorzata DereniowskaSeptember 18, 2019
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2 Comments
CALL FOR PAPERS
The advent of digital economy creates new challenges for businesses, workers, and policymakers. Moreover, business prospects for artificial intelligence and machine learning are evolving quickly. These technologies have transforming implications for all industries, businesses of all sizes, and societies. The digitalisation of economic activities calls for a deep reflection on the forces that will shape the future of the global economy. AIMS OF THE CONFERENCE The objective of this conference, led by Prof. Maria Alejandra Madi and Dr. Małgorzata Dereniowska, is to discuss recent contributions to the understanding of digital economy and its consequences for business trends and labour challenges. The conference also focuses on bridging the gap between different economic theoretical approaches and the practical applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning. Related topics include law, ethics, safety, and governance. Topics include (but are not limited to): * The gig economy and recent economic theoretical approaches: advances and challenges. * Internet of Things in retrospect and today. * Machine learning: integration of people and machine learning inonline systems.
* Consumer transactions and Big Analytics. * Time Series Data & Data for Prediction in Economics. * Business Transformations though Internet of Things and ArtificialIntelligence.
* Impact of artificial intelligence on business and society: automation of jobs and the future of job creation * Artificial intelligence for manufacturing: today and tomorrow. * Disruptive innovation and transforming industries: telecom, finance, and travel/transportation, logistics, etc. * Machine learning and eco-challenges. * E-government, e-democracy and e-justice. * Ethical and legal issues of artificial intelligence technology andits applications.
* Digital economy and economic inequality. * The impact of the digital economy on competition and economicgrowth.
* Technological change and ecological economicsPAPER SUBMISSIONS
* The conference will feature theoretical, econometric, experimental and policy oriented contributions. * The deadline for paper submission is SUNDAY, OCTOBER 20TH, 2019 * Papers (up to 10 pages) should present worked-out ideas onrelevant topics.
* Papers should be written in APA style (Word). * Submissions should be uploaded via the conference support system: https://goingdigital2019.weaconferences.net/submissions * For manuscripts guidelines, and complete general guidelines about the WEA Online Conferences, please check: https://www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/conferences/guidelines/WHO CAN PARTICIPATE
We welcome submissions from scholars working in economics, law, political science, psychology, philosophy, and sociology. We also welcome contributions from business executives responsible for AI initiatives, heads of innovation, data scientists, data analysts, staticians, AI consultants and service providers, and students.KEY DATES
PAPER SUBMISSIONS: 20th October, 2019. NOTIFICATION OF ACCEPTANCE: 4th November, 2019. DISCUSSION FORUM: 11th November – 9th December, 2019.CONTACT
MARIA ALEJANDRA MADI: alejandra_madi@yahoo.com.br MAŁGORZATA DERENIOWSKA: malgorzata.dereniowska@gmail.com WHAT WORKS? POLICY DESIGN WITHOUT THEORY IS USELESS By Maria Alejandra MadiSeptember 15, 2019
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Against a rationalist top down approach to policy making, the evidence-informed policy and practice has rapidly evolved in the lasttwo decades.
In this line of research, a new book _What Works Now? Evidence-informed Policy and Practice_ has been edited by Annette Boaz, Huw Davies, Alec Fraser and Sandra Nutley. It offers not only a synthesis of the role of evidence in policy making but also an analysis of its use in recent economic models and practices in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Scandinavia, Canada and the United States. In addition to the diversity of policy and practice settings where evidence is sought and gets applied, the book considers policy examples related to healthcare, social care, criminal justice, education, environment and international development.. At the core of the argument regarding the actual relevance of ‘know-about’, ‘know-what works’, ‘know-how’, ‘know-who’ and ‘know-why’ is the belief that evidence matters. Considering this policy scenario, the relevant question at stake is WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEW POLICY DESIGN PRACTICES THAT MAINLY RELY ON THE BELIEF THAT EVIDENCE MATTERS? What is important to note is that behind the belief that evidence matters is a deep transformation of the public policy approach towards a more experimental and empirical one. At this respect, in the UK, the Nudge Unit leader David Halpern recently suggested the conceptualization of EXPERIMENTAL GOVERNMENT in order to characterize the new approach to policy making based on evidence. The relevance of the potential outcomes of systematic testing is clear in Halpern’s words: G_overnments, public bodies and businesses regularly make changes to what they do. Sometimes these changes are very extensive, such as when welfare systems are reformed, school curricula are overhauled, or professional guidelines are changed. No doubt those behind the changes think they are for the best. But without systematic testing, this is often little more than an educated guest. To me, this preparedness to make a change affecting millions of people, without testing it is potentially far more unacceptable than the alternative of running trials that affect a small number of people before imposing the changeto everyone. _
At the heart of his proposal about “WHAT WORKS BEST” in public policy is the use of evidence as a regular practice to select the measures that actually operate in a more efficient way. Moreover, no ethical considerations about the efficient methods and goals in policy making are added to his explanation. Taking into account the methodologies that support some policy practices that favour iNDUCTIVE REASONING AND RANDOMIZED CONTROL TRIALS OF IMPACT EVALUATION (RCTs), there is a controversy around the utilization of these attempts to build experimental programmes or policy intervention. For instance, Deaton and Cartwright (2016) pointed out that there are misunderstandings around what the RCTs can really do. For them, the inductive techniques used in research do not guarantee that the relevant causal factors are taken into account across sample groups in any specified RCT. Therefore, the results of the inference pocess might be wrong. Indeed, the outcomes of RCTs can be challenged ex post, after examining the composition of the control group and the factors considered in the experimental setting. Moreover, Deaton and Cartwright also rejected the transportation of the outcoems of RCTs to other contexts since the relations of causality between variables is always context-dependent. As the decision-making policy process in the real world relies on institutional factors that may be different elsewhere, the methodology based on RCTs does not provide a credible basis for policy making. In short, the outcomes of inductive investigation can never be completely transported across time and space. Moreover, economists Steven D. Levitt and John A. List (2007) highlighted that human behaviour in RCTs can be affected by the selection of the individuals, the evaluation of their actions by others, and ethical issues. Then, the findings in a laboratory setting may overestimate or underestimate the effectiveness of policy interventions within real life interactions. In other words, if a policy intervention “works” and makes people better off in a laboratory, there is no guarantee that this intervention may actually do so in the real-world. In fact, the methodology of RCTs runs the risk of considering worthless casual relationships as relevant causalities in the attempt to develop policy recommendations. In short, the use of the outcomes of RCTs as normative orientations for policy making should be put inquestion.
“What works” in the “sterile” environment of a laboratory does not necessarily work in a real-world where social interactions and the dynamics of institutions are overwhelmed by power relations. Therefore, ethical considerations should be considered in any attemp to build policy proposals. Indeed, tHE TRANSFORMATION OF THE ECONOMIC POLICY APPROACH HAS EVIDENTLY BEEN A REMARKABLE ONE. It is worth recalling the words of Lars Syll about the current SAD STATE of economics as a science, _A science that doesn’t self-reflect and asks important methodological and science-theoretical questions about the own activity, is a science in dire straits. The main reason why mainstream economics has increasingly become more and more useless as a public policy instrument is to be found in its perverted view on the value ofmethodology._
REFERENCES
Boaz, A, Davies, H., Fraser, A and Nutley, S. (eds) What Works Now? Evidence-informed Policy and Practice.. Policy Press. 2019., Deaton, A. and Cartwright, N. (2016). Understanding and misunderstanding randomized controlled trials. NBER Working Paper No.22595.
Halpern, D. (2015). Inside the Nudge Unit: How Small Changes Can Make a Big Difference. London: WH Allen. Levitt, S. D. and List, J. A. (2007). What do laboratory experiments measuring social preferences reveal about the real world? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21 (2): 153–174. Madi, M.A.C (2019). The Dark side of Nudges. London: Routledge. Sill, L. (2019=. Economics becomes more precise and rigorous — andtotally useless
April 4.
https://rwer.wordpress.com/2019/04/04/economics-becomes-more-precise-and-rigorous-and-totally-useless/← Older posts
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