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SUNRISE'S SWANSONG
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GLOOMY THANKSGIVING DOUBLE-SONNET Posted on November 20, 2019by Caleb
3
Talk about “triggers”: Gray, bleak November, And again I’m eleven with parents parted, But must fake thanks. How I remember The hurt, fifty years later. Downhearted To this day in some strange way; it seems spring Can never come. How dare my parents do it? They could renounce love, but I couldn’t bring Myself to side with a side of their split For I sided with Love. Yet that Thanksgiving Came, despite divorce, and mocked all held dear. Fat turkey is not what makes life worth living. Gray, leafless boughs trigger, year after year, A sense that Thanksgiving can’t be the same Until the two sides quit their unloving game. And the same holds true for politicians. A bond of Love must connect opponents Or Democracy dies. Love tempers men’s Savage inclination to turn mere rants Into murders. Love is the hope of sweet spring In bleak November. Love is never first To draw the sword, though Love can surely sting Those men first drawing blades. Love quenches thirst For peace, but not falsely with soothing lies, For Love is one with Truth. But power-crazed Men can’t comprehend marriage. Cyclops eyes See one way alone. They can’t stand amazed Sharing views with those with whom they’re living, And chose to be blind to the Cause of Thanksgiving.Advertisements
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ARCTIC SEA-ICE –RALPH’S HOOKED SIGNATURE– Posted on November 19, 2019by Caleb
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“Ralph” (Anomalous polar low pressure), which was created by a North Atlantic gale that swerved left and proceeded north right up the spine of Greenland, has merrily crossed the Pole and headed towards Central Siberia. On November 17th new low bombed-out south of Greenland, as high pressure was pumped over West Siberia. As Ralph passes the Pole he sucks north milder Atlantic Air, creating a “signature hook” in the temperature isotherms. Twelve hours later we see Ralph moving closer to Siberia, and the high pressure in his wake to some degree cutting off the Atlantic “feeder band”, and redirecting it north of Greenland where “Ralph Junior” is brewing. Major cold is building in Central Siberia, and the North Atlantic Gale is not moving north into Baffins Bay like thelast one.
The “signature hook” can still be seen in the temperature isotherms, but cooling is evident. A slight hook is appearing north ofGreenland.
Twelve hours later Ralph has reached the New Siberian Islands, as Ralph Junior develops north of Greenland. The North Atlantic gale is wobbling east towards a more traditional stance as the Icelandic Low. The temperature map reveals only faint traces of Ralph’s original “hook”. The temperature isotherms reveal both the minus-five and minus-ten isotherm have retreated west along the Siberian coast towards the North Atlantic. Not that the mild air has moved west; rather it has physically cooled. A less dramatic hook of Atlantic air is probing north of Greenland to feed Ralph Junior. Interesting to me is the elongated pocket of minus fifteen isotherms extending from the Canadian Archipelago and crossing the Pole. Did the primary Ralph leave colder temperatures in its wake? Twelve hours later this morning’s map shows the primary Ralph is fading on the coast of Siberia, cut off from its feeder band. Ralph Junior is surviving north of Greenland, but the Icelandic low looks like it is sweeping in a lot of North Atlantic “juice” and perhaps cutting off Ralph Junior from further supplies. The temperature map shows little trace of all the warm air the original Ralph brought north, and the original “hook” has vanished. The secondary hook made by Ralph Junior imports fresh mildness over the Pole (if you can call minus-ten Celsius “mild”). Importing all the mild Atlantic air north has created a dramatic spike in the DMI polar temperatures graph, now starting to descend. While this spike is incorporated into global-average-temperatures, and makes them look higher, to me it appears it is largely a reflection of heat lost. If you desire to retain heat it should be placed in the piggy-bank of the south, not squandered under the sunless skies of thenorth.
When I look a little deeper I notice an oddity. Initially the surge of Atlantic air made the entire Arctic Ocean “white hot” on the GFS temperature anomaly-map (from Weatherbell). (“White hot” is still below freezing, but 16 to 30 degrees above normal.) However Ralph’s transit of the arctic did not increase or even sustain that anomaly. In fact the “white hot” area appears cut in two, as if Ralph left a trail of cooling in his wake. (Also Ralph Junior involves some less-than-white-hot temperatures in his signature curl.) In conclusion, the overturning of the atmosphere and heat-exchanges, seen in Ralph, makes mincemeat of the ideas within the elegant idea of there being a Polar Cell of descending air and high pressure at thePole.
One exercise I find interesting is to attempt to draw a picture of the overturning atmosphere as elegant as the above one is, but to include a Ralph of rising air. Try it. All sorts of problems manifest. One fascinating thing to observe has been a reverse from a cross-polar-flow to a cross-polar-low. The flow was from Europe to Canada, and in barely a week this swung to a whirl from Greenland to Siberia. I don’t claim to understand what I watch, but I think it is well worth watching. Geeks (not me) who devote study to such stuff deserve funding, for, rather than a mere reflection of what happens at more southerly latitudes, these arctic shenanigans may be pivots that swing the weather further south. The discovery of a forecasting “tool”, as valuable as the discovery of the tropic’s “MJO” was, may be awaiting discovery. Sorry to be so distracted from sea-ice by what is moving and shifting and growing the sea-ice. The sea-ice itself is continuing its ordinary expansion, and so far we haven’t seen the down-dip which sometimes occurs in late Autumn, despite Ralph bashing the ice about a bit. The appearance of Ralph north of Greenland did bring about wrong-way south-winds in Fram Strait, slowing and even briefly reversing the discharge of sea-ice south into the Atlantic down the east coast of Greenland, and also compressing that sea-ice against Greenland’s coast. This reduces the possibility we’ll see the rarity of an ice-bridge between Greenland and Iceland in early January. The area of open water north of Bering Strait is shrinking but still sizable. Beaufort Sea is nearly completely frozen, the retreat on the Kara-Sea-front has reverted to expansion, the top of Baffin Bay is seeing rapid expansion of sea-ice despite the recent south winds, and Hudson Bay is starting to freeze (which is always interesting towatch.)
Stay tuned.
Posted in Arctic Sea Ice,
Arctic Storms
,
Arctic Temperatures
| Tagged Arctic Sea Ice, Arctic
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ARCTIC SEA-ICE –TRANS GREENLANDIC RALPH– Posted on November 16, 2019by Caleb
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In my last post I pointed out cross-polar-flow was bringing north a mild (albeit dry) “feeder-band” through Central Europe, and a smaller (but moister) “feeder-band” was sneaking north through Bering Strait and then east along the East Siberian coast. I stated I’d be a on the lookout for Ralph (Anomalous low pressure at the Pole) due to the influxes of mild air. Well, Ralph has formed, but not in the way I expected. This time of year we expect “bombogenesis” in the North Atlantic. Arctic outbreaks of very cold air over warm water creates a contrast ripe for development, however at first the sinking cold air serves as a sort of “lid” on the heat. Then, due to a sort of “tipping point” in terms of lapse rates, the heat starts to rise, and abruptly a storm explodes. Often these gales are bigger and stronger than many hurricanes, but usually are out where only captains of freighters and people in Iceland notice. Usually they stall around Iceland, creating a semi-permanent feature known as “The Icelandic Low”. Back on November 13th I was wary of the weak low pressure south of Greenland exploding. Bombogenesis did occur, but rather than heading east to Iceland the huge gale roared north into Baffin Bay, with winds howling south to north along the entire spine of Greenland. Then this morning, Ralph pops out north of Greenland. This is interesting partly because it makes me look like a dope. I was watching warm inflows from the Pacific and from Eurasia, and never saw this huge wave of Atlantic moisture coming. In any case, the Arctic Sea is now brimming with above-normal air, “white hot” in the temperature anomaly map. Alarmists will likely focus on the “white hot” anomalies, though temperatures are in fact below freezing. They will pay no attention to the frigid air masses bumped off the Pole into Europe, Central Asia, and currently clouting me here in New Hampshire (and centered south of Hudson Bay.) At times some Alarmists seem to forget no thawing occurs when temperatures are below freezing. I find the situation interesting because I always like to watch how the “white hot” anomalies fade, and to think about all the heat being lost. Where does it go? Also the antics of Ralph are always interesting. Finally, having this huge slug of moist Atlantic air ride over the icecap of Greenland involves the Alarmist idea the icecap is melting and coastal cities will drown. Not today. All the precipitation seems to have have fallen as snow, and no melting isseen.
In a single day it looks like Greenland received ten gigatons offrozen water.
I’m not exactly sure what ten gigatons amounts to, in terms I can comprehend. I’m just glad I don’t have to shovel it. One final wonderment (for me, at least) is how much heat is lost as the moist air passes over the ten-thousand-foot high ice-cap. A lot of latent heat is released as vapor goes through two phase changes, and falls as snow. Some is lost to outer space. But some remains with the air, which must descend as Greenland-Chinook. Even the roaring katabatic winds coming off Antarctica warm as they descend in altitude (albeit only a “warming” to minus-forty), and up in Thule, towards the top of Baffin Bay, where winter temperatures can get down to -72 (-58 Celsius), they have experienced above freezing temperatures every month of their dark winters, and have a record January temperature of 41 (+5 Celsius). This makes me wonder if some “polar warming” is just a natural Chinook. There are some fascinating old tales from whalers, and the Polaris Expedition of 1871-1873, about polynyas of open water up in Nares Strait at the top of Baffin Bay, even in the dead of winter. Much toruminate upon.
Stay tuned.
Posted in Arctic Sea Ice,
Greenland
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THE SPITBALL SONNET
Posted on November 15, 2019by Caleb
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When I was young we had school shootings every day. We called her “Miss Gestapo”, and spread cruel Rumors about corpses in her closet. She surveyed us with wintry eyes, no fool And no friend. She would cram Math; somehow get Through thick skulls the import of zero. I had To get through forty minutes, but the crawl Of time stood still. Just then Fred, who was mad, Shot me with a spitball. She wheeled; glared; though all Eyes were innocent. (Shooting puffs a sound Distinctive). She turned back to the blackboard As I chewed some paper. Fred turned around And grinned. I loaded. Class gasped. My aim was towards Not Fred. What possessed me I’ll never know As I raised my shooter towards Miss Gestapo.P.S.
(This point may seem somewhat moot: To cause commotion, you need not shoot.)Posted in Poetry
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ARCTIC SEA-ICE –CROSS POLAR PUNCH– Posted on November 14, 2019by Caleb
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I awoke this morning, (before I actually opened my eyes), to the wintry chorus of roaring pines, moving majestically across the distance from my northern window to my southern one, and instinctively visualized where I last saw my warm slippers, and planned a bee-line to the wood-stove. In the predawn twilight it was 12 degrees out (-11 Celsius). When I made it to the wood-stove, and as I nursed my first coffee, I awoke my grumpy laptop and avoided depressing politics by checking out weather sites. In many parts of New England the arctic blast was setting records for the coldest morning, as far back as records go, for the date of November 13. I failed to avoid depressing politics, for many were commenting, “Global Warming? Bah! Humbug!” even as others insisted record-setting cold was proof of Global Warming. So I sought the best escape, which is either the sky itself, or weather maps of what the actual sky is doing, for the sky does what it does and doesn’t care a flying flip about your politics. Because it was so cold, my eyes gravitated north, to where the cold was coming from. Arctic air leads to arctic research, (and, in this case, a short sea-ice post.) I immediately noticed a “cross-polar-flow”. On surface maps you could basically follow the 1020 mb isobar from Greece across the NorthPole to Canada.
What effect does this cross-polar-flow have? Well, it crumples my brow, for starters. Why? Well, I confess I was looking for some sort of “zonal flow”. A zonal flow traps cold air at the Pole by wrapping winds around and around the Pole. You can’t get more opposite from a zonal flow than a cross-polar-flow. It was time for me to get back to the old drawing board. One interesting thing about a cross-polar-flow is that it doesn’t merely embarrass the idea of a “zonal” jet stream, but also embarrasses the idea of the apparent opposite idea, which is the “meridienal” (or “loopy”) jet-stream. Both ideas involve the bias of southern people who tend to think in terms of winds going around the planet, and who draw elegant and beautiful schemes of howthis occurs.
The problem with this elegant and beautiful idea is this dratted thing called “Truth”. The North Pole simply doesn’t work in the manner that we, with our southern bias, assume it works, and therefore the Pole is constantly splatting a custard pie into the fair face of our beautiful and elegant theories. (Which likely explains why our long-range forecasts stink.) Rather than winds politely obeying the elegant and beautiful theory, (which winds sometimes do), winds become rude, and disobey. One way is by forming howling gales of low pressure (which I call “Ralph”) right where the above illustration shows high pressure at the Pole, and another way is by whipping over the top of the planet rather than around the top, which is called “cross-polar-flow.” Rather than getting mad at Truth, and calling it “cruel”, I try to take the attitude of the poet John Keats, and rhapsodize “Truth is Beauty”. After all, a bit of custard pie in your face doesn’t taste all that bad, and anyway, any man who marries meteorology has married a wonderful wench who will mash wedding cake into your mug ten minutes after you say “I do”. Get used to it. One reason cross-polar-flow should be attended to is because it has caused havoc in the the past. Between 1815 and 1817 it dumped an amazing amount of sea-ice south into the Atlantic, which resulted in the following statement in minutes of a British Admiralty meeting: “_IT WILL WITHOUT DOUBT HAVE COME TO YOUR LORDSHIP’S KNOWLEDGE THAT A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE OF CLIMATE, INEXPLICABLE AT PRESENT TO US, MUST HAVE TAKEN PLACE IN THE CIRCUMPOLAR REGIONS, BY WHICH THE SEVERITY OF THE COLD THAT HAS FOR CENTURIES PAST ENCLOSED THE SEAS IN THE HIGH NORTHERN LATITUDES IN AN IMPENETRABLE BARRIER OF ICE HAS BEEN DURING THE LAST TWO YEARS, GREATLY ABATED._.. …_(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations.” _President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20thNovember, 1817
While the apparent cross-polar-flow of those times may have been good news for those who desired an ice-free arctic to enhance their explorations, it was not good news for those further south, where all that sea-ice went. Ice-bergs were grounding on the beaches of Ireland (which has not been recorded happening since) and the waters of the North Atlantic were chilled to a degree where Western Europe had a horrible growing-season called “The Year Without A Summer.” It would seem logical to investigate such history, but sadly it seems some see such records as unhelpful to the “cause” of panicking the public about Global Warming. Current low-levels of sea-ice will seem less worrisome if people realize even lower levels were seen in thepast.
The person who first dug up the Admiralty Records and brought them to the public’s attention was named John L. Daly. John died in 2004, and when he died a prominent Climate-scientist of that dark time remarked that his death was “in an odd way cheering news”. I was utterly disgusted when I learned of this, (in the “climate-gate emails”), for it was indicative of an attitude that did not look fondly upon Truth, or upon those who work hard to bring Truth forward. In the 15 years since John L. Daly passed on I have seen little sign that certain Climate Scientists “in charge” are in any way wiser, or are any more likely to work hard to bring Truth forward. In fact there even seems to be an effort to erase the name “John L. Daly” from Climate Science altogether. What a waste of effort! Life is too short, and there is too little time left over, (after dealing with worldly responsibilities like washing dishes), as it is. We should be spending every little bit of free time we have bringing Truth forward. What a loss it seems to waste that time by spending such slender moments pushing Truth back. I can only assume people who resort to such behavior are addicts. After all, heroin addicts will sell their grandmother’s cane and false teeth for their next fix. Certain Climate-scientists must need a similar fix, when they waste precious hours on earth fighting a man like John L. Daly, even though he has been beyond fighting back for 15 years. (Perhaps the news of John’s death was not so “cheering” after all, because perhaps the Truth which John stood for cannot die, and rises from the grave.) I’m just glad I’m not addicted to whatever it is they are. I’d rather confess I am backwards than claim “science is settled” and that I stand at some “forefront”, when such a claim is proof even the most educated Climate-scientist is more backward than I. How can I make such a claim? After all, I am not a Climate-scientist. I’m a mere bumpkin. But I do respect Truth. And this strangely makes me “more educated” then fellows who went to college. Why? I can only suppose it is because some element of their education made them too snobby and sophisticated to listen to some silly blond like Doris Day sing “Que Sera, Sera”. (Whatever will be, will be). To return to the arctic, when I note cross-polar-flow occurs, I am merely noting, “Whatever will be, will be.” As a bumpkin I am not required to publish a paper with fifty footnotes, or to find funding to pay for others to wash my dishes as I research. I am free of allthat.
Though I wonder why the cross-polar-flow happened, I am not required to say why. I merely state the Truth. I continue to wonder, but am not required to prove anything. I’m glad I don’t have to supply any Truth, for, as I stated earlier, I was expecting a “zonal” flow, and expected the pocket of below-normal air at the Pole to expand. In a manner of speaking the cross-polar-flow brought milder air to the Pole and, as in a game of “king-of-the-mountain”, bumped the cold air off the top and down into Canada and Alaska. Here is the temperature-anomaly map from November 11, showing the blue pocket of below-normal air at the Pole. And here is the temperature-anomaly map just three days later onNovember 14.
Notice, in the second map, the spear of above-normal temperatures moving north through Eastern Europe. It becomes less obvious as it moves out over the Arctic Ocean, (because in November a continental land-breeze is colder than a maritime sea-breeze, on the arctic coast), but it seems fairly obvious the flow is not zonal, and we should see a mild “feeder band” warming the Pole. And sure enough, the DMI polar temperature graph shows a spike of warming. Instead of seizing upon this spike as being proof of some preconception about Global Warming, I feel it is likely better to sit back and observe, humming “Que Sera, Sera”. There are far more questions than answers. For example, sometimes you can follow a surge of milder air and see it keep its identity across thousands of miles. I once watched a spear of midwinter warmth surge from the Atlantic inland in Europe and cross the entirety of Russia, fading but still evident as it reached the Pacific. But this cross-polar-flow isn’t like that. Rather various atmospheric-entities were moving every which way like a bunch of baby ducks, and suddenly some mother duck quacked and got all the ducks in a row, called a cross-polar-flow. Also I am never certain if the south wind bumps the cold off the Pole, or if it is the departure of a cold air mass that creates a vacuum that draws the south-wind north. What came first, the chicken or theegg?
In other words, on some levels my understanding amounts to a goose egg. (There, I worked ducks, chickens and geese into a discussionabout the arctic.)
However one does not need to understand the Truth to observe the Truth. In fact Truth is the teacher, and we are just taking notes. Then we should compare notes with others, which is a delightful process, because it is as if we gain additional sets of eyes. What is absurd is to ignore the observations of others, including observers who are not with us any more, such as John L. Daly. One interesting thing I noticed was that the edge of the sea-ice stopped expanding southwest in the Kara Sea, and even retreated north and northeast, pushed towards the Pole by the cross-polar-flow. (A second feeder band sneaked in through Bering Strait along the Russian coast and pushed sea-ice back a bit in the Chukchi Sea.) However the colder part of the cross-polar-flow completed the refreeze at the mouth of the Mackenzie River, and overall the sea-ice extent continued its yearly expansion. One thing I’ll be watching to see is how the feeder-bands of milder air behave up at the Pole. If they form a stormy “Ralph” it may break up the sea-ice in places. As I finish this post it is now the morning of November 14, and outside it 17° (-8° Celsius), with a steely gray overcast as southern air tries to push back north. We may briefly climb to 45° (+7° Celsius) tomorrow, before yet another arctic blast clobbers us. Hopefully that will drain the arctic of its cold, for at least a while. A snowy Thanksgiving only looks good on postcards. Posted in Arctic Sea Ice,
Cross Polar Flow
,
New England Weather
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THE DEWDROP SONNET
Posted on November 12, 2019by Caleb
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We are dewdrops in the night, created By the dark and yet yearning for the dawn. Long we’ve waited; long anticipated How we’ll sparkle when Grace shines upon Our lightless forms, and how happy Grace will be To see us sparkle. The night grows darkest; Not even starlight shines dimly on skin As mist hangs in ink. We want what is best And understand it shines from within, But without Your sunrise none comes to You And none shines with You. And so we plead You enlighten the east from black to blue And give all the people love-light they need. Then what darkness made, without any fear, Will warm and, sparkling, disappear.Posted in Poetry
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ARCTIC SEA-ICE –A THIN VENEER OF WARMTH– Posted on November 11, 2019by Caleb
2
One illusion nourished by Alarmists is created by an overemphasis on warm surface temperatures at the Pole, without regard to how deep or superficial that warmth may be. For example, currently the waters north of Bering Strait and Alaska are still open, which means that surface temperatures over that water remain close to freezing (at least until that water skims over with ice.) Also there is the addition of some Pacific Air due to south winds to the east of an Aleutian Low and west of a Pacific-coast Ridge of high pressure. Though temperatures are below zero (-17 Celsius) over the Pole itself, they are much milder on the Pacific side of the Arctic Sea. In order to emphasize polar warming, Alarmists like to shift to a map which shows whether the temperature are above-normal or below-normal. Called an “anomaly map”, this can make below freezing temperatures appear cherry red and even white hot, if they are above-normal. Currently the anomaly map shows that while the Pole itself is below-normal, the areas north of Alaska and Bering Strait are indeed above-normal, even “white hot.” These temperatures, as much as thirty degrees above normal, are added into the data which is used to find the “average” of the entire planet, and (especially during winter) is a reason the planet is said to be “running a fever”, (though in fact it’s roughly only a quarter-to-half degree above normal). I think these areas of thirty-above-normal in the arctic creates a disproportionate uplift in world-temperatures, and fosters an illusion of warming which does not in fact exist. I think this is not only because a slight increase of moisture creates a big rise in temperatures in arctic conditions, (whereas the same increase would have nearly no effect on temperatures further south). It is also because I watch air-masses, and see how inconsequential these thirty-above-normal air-masses can be, as they come south. I got in the habit of watching air-masses because the old-school weathermen of my youth actually labeled them on their maps. For example, a high pressure in Canada might be “pacific-maritime” or might be “arctic”, and this told you something about its origins. For example, in the long range the GFS has been foreseeing that the Pacific ridge of high pressure would break down and Pacific Air would flood over the Canadian Rockies and have a Chinook make the middle of Canada above-normal. Here’s the nine-day-forecast from a couple ofdays ago:
The above map shows a surge of Pacific, above-normal air pushing east right across Hudson bay. However, so far, such dreams haven’t come true; the air hasn’t had a Pacific source-region, but rather an Arctic source-region, from areas often thirty-above-normal. Yet does that air remain thirty-above-normal as it reaches central Canada? The answer is “No”. In fact the air is increasingly below normalas it surges south.
Why does the thirty-above-normal air become twenty-below-normal air?Three reasons.
First, “above” and “below” are relative terms, and, where zero degree air may be “above normal” over the Yukon, the same air, even if it warms five degrees on its way south, will be far “below normal” when it reaches Nebraska. Secondly, we are entering the darkest fifth of the year in the north, and air sometimes actually gets colder coming south, especially over fresh snow-cover. Days are simply too short, while nights are so long they contribute to cooling. Winter is winning. It will not be until February that we will again start to see arctic air-masses warmed much by sunshine in Canada. Warmth must be imported from the south to uplift temperatures in the arctic, or drawn from bodies of water, which are rapidly freezing-over even as I write. Lastly, the thirty-about-normal air is actually a thin and unsubstantial air-mass, largely reflective of open water, and also reflective of heat being lost upwards to outer space. If you don’t believe me, watch the anomaly maps. You may see thirty-above-normal air head north, (especially from tendrils of the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic) but it is doomed; it never returns south as thirty-above-normal air. In fact it rapidly cools, becoming twenty-above-normal air, ten-above-normal-air, and even finally becoming below-normal . Copious quantities of the planet’s heat are being lost every day. To stop this squandering of our heat we need the pattern to become more “zonal”. Keep the heat down south where we need it, to lower our heating bills, and trap the cold up at the Pole, going around and round the Pole in circles. The long range forecasts keeps hinting at this, with mild, west-to-east Chinooks appearing on the long-range maps. There is even a hint of cold now being zonally trapped up at the Pole, in the DMI temperatures-north-of-eighty-degrees-latitude graph (with temperatures now sinking down to averaging normal, despite the thirty-above-normal air towards Alaska and Bering Strait): But…….So far the Pacific Ridge has refused to break down as forecast. It starts to slump south, but then springs back to life. It will be interesting to see if this resiliency persists, (as it did in the frigid winter of 1976-1977), or whether a frigid November gives way to a more benign December, (which is more often the case). As I watch I’ll be wondering what exactly makes the ridge build and persist, and what weakens it. I don’t think anyone is sure aboutthat.
Much may hinge upon the next two large areas of the open water to freeze, the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas north of Bering Strait, and Hudson Bay far further south. (And when I say “hinge upon”, I wonder if I may be hitting upon a yet-to-be-understood variable that influences the positions of troughs and ridges, and whether the pattern is zonal or meridional.) These large expanses of open water can flash freeze with astonishing speed, and as soon as they even thinly skim with ice there is less heat and moisture released into the arctic air, and less of the updrafting which promotes low pressure. There is lot more happening than meets the eye, as we watch the “extent” graph go through its yearly process of rocketing upwards, more than tripling the area covered by sea-ice in the Northern Hemisphere (though do not expect sensationalist headlines, “Sea-ice Nearly Quadruples”.) The sea-ice largely forms to the north where the sun is brief and low, or has set entirely for the winter, and therefore it has little effect on how much sunshine is bounced away from the earth (albedo) (with Hudson Bay being a slight exception). Snowfall, which can whiten lands further south, has a greater effect. It has fallen earlier than normal in North America, and over the last weekend much of Montana and the Dakotas were whitened. Montana is slightly larger than Germany, and though we consider it a “northern state”, it is the same latitude as France. South Dakota is at the latitude of France’s Mediterranean coast. To have snow so far south so early in November, (breeding the cold air which a snow-cover breeds, during the shortest days), does not bode well for a benign winter, and is reason to hope for a Chinook. (Chinook apparently means “snow eater”, and could push the edge of the snows north in a hurry.) (Note also the sea-ice is just starting to form on the western shores of Hudson Bay.) Much now will depend on the effect of the large area of open water remaining north of Bering Strait. It is now totally surrounded by snow-covered lands, in both Asia and North America. Wait and see. One event I envision is for that open water to create enough of an updraft to attract the Aleutian Low north, which dents the Pacific-coast Ridge south and interferes with the pouring of cold air down into North America, allowing Pacific Air to pour east and form Chinooks in the lee of the Rocky Mountains. Perhaps that is what the computer models keep seeing in the long range. But, on the other hand, if waters north of Bering Strait flash freeze, the Pacific-coast Ridge might extend further north, creating a cross-polar-flow sucking the coldest air in the northern hemisphere from Siberia across to Canada and thence south into the USA, where Alarmists will have their toes froze, and blame it on Global Warming.Stay Tuned.
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