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RRH ELECTIONS
Ex-State Rep. and 2017 candidate Jack Ciattarelli (R) is the presumptive GOP nominee, as he has collected unanimous establishment support from the state’s powerful county GOP machines.A CPA by trade, Ciattarelli has also run a small book publishing company. He was first elected to local office in upscale suburban Somerset County in two stints in the 90s and 2000s before winning a then-GOP POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 4, 2021 Many thanks to Vice President Harris for the short work week. Be sure to check back here on Saturday for Texas Mayoral & Mexico midterm legislative election results! Congress: FL-Sen: Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell (D) is in against incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Thus far, the Democratic field also includes Rep. Val Demings and grenade throwing former Rep. Alan Grayson. MO SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 5TH, 2021 About Last Night . . . In Cincinnati, Democrats Aftab Pureval and David Mann are heading to a runoff, with the former getting about 40% of the vote and the latter 30% in the Queen City’s California-Rules Top-Two mayoral primary. Now, onto the news! National: Trump’s Platform: Trump is launching a “Communications Platform” after being banned from Twitter and Facebook, in order to POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 17, 2021 A not-so-happy tax day! As a reminder, your federal income tax return is due today, if you haven’t filed already. Reminder: We are still planning to poll the NM-1 Special Election. Anyone who donates at least $10 to our effort by clicking on the big yellow Donate button to the right (computers) or near the bottom (phones) of this Roundup with a valid e-mail address will receive the poll 1 MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the currentLA-2 RUNOFF PREVIEW
LA-2 Runoff Preview. This Saturday, there is a D-on-D congressional runoff in Louisiana. Polls close at 9p ET and we will be liveblogging (with a livemap!). LA-2: LA-2 is a Black-majority D+25 (16/20) seat covering most of the city of New Orleans, most of its lower-middle-class Westbank suburbs, and the poor, heavily Black northside of Baton
USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election. WV-SEN: JOE MANCHIN SWITCHING TO GOP, REPUBLICANS REGAIN In a press conference scheduled for noon today West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin will announce that he is leaving the Democratic Party and will become a Republican. This will flip control of the US Senate to the GOP instantly making Sen. Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader. Manchin will also take over as Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Manchin has been a fixture inRRH ELECTIONS
Ex-State Rep. and 2017 candidate Jack Ciattarelli (R) is the presumptive GOP nominee, as he has collected unanimous establishment support from the state’s powerful county GOP machines.A CPA by trade, Ciattarelli has also run a small book publishing company. He was first elected to local office in upscale suburban Somerset County in two stints in the 90s and 2000s before winning a then-GOP POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 4, 2021 Many thanks to Vice President Harris for the short work week. Be sure to check back here on Saturday for Texas Mayoral & Mexico midterm legislative election results! Congress: FL-Sen: Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell (D) is in against incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Thus far, the Democratic field also includes Rep. Val Demings and grenade throwing former Rep. Alan Grayson. MO SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 5TH, 2021 About Last Night . . . In Cincinnati, Democrats Aftab Pureval and David Mann are heading to a runoff, with the former getting about 40% of the vote and the latter 30% in the Queen City’s California-Rules Top-Two mayoral primary. Now, onto the news! National: Trump’s Platform: Trump is launching a “Communications Platform” after being banned from Twitter and Facebook, in order to POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 17, 2021 A not-so-happy tax day! As a reminder, your federal income tax return is due today, if you haven’t filed already. Reminder: We are still planning to poll the NM-1 Special Election. Anyone who donates at least $10 to our effort by clicking on the big yellow Donate button to the right (computers) or near the bottom (phones) of this Roundup with a valid e-mail address will receive the poll 1 MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the currentLA-2 RUNOFF PREVIEW
LA-2 Runoff Preview. This Saturday, there is a D-on-D congressional runoff in Louisiana. Polls close at 9p ET and we will be liveblogging (with a livemap!). LA-2: LA-2 is a Black-majority D+25 (16/20) seat covering most of the city of New Orleans, most of its lower-middle-class Westbank suburbs, and the poor, heavily Black northside of Baton
USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election. WV-SEN: JOE MANCHIN SWITCHING TO GOP, REPUBLICANS REGAIN In a press conference scheduled for noon today West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin will announce that he is leaving the Democratic Party and will become a Republican. This will flip control of the US Senate to the GOP instantly making Sen. Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader. Manchin will also take over as Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Manchin has been a fixture in POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 10, 2021 Good morning! Saddle up with your favorite cup of joe and a Kamala cookie as you read the latest election news. Congress: FL-Sen: ICYMI, Rep. Val Demings (D) has officially confirmed what everyone has known for weeks now — she will be running for U.S. Senate next year. Former Rep. Alan Grayson (D) and Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell (D) are also running to oppose Sen. Marco POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 11, 2021 It’s Friday! As the House Democratic Caucus fights amongst itself over a certain Congresswoman’s controversial remarks (instead of Republicans, for once), here’s today’s roundup: National:National Redistricting Action Fund/Dark Money: Eric Holder’s National Redistricting Action Fund, which is running ads decrying the role of anonymous dark money contributions by billionaires in an POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR APRIL 9, 2021 For starters the new budget includes a $2.1 billion fund to provide checks up to $15,600 to illegal aliens for “pandemic relief”. With Cuomo kneecapped because of scandal the lunatics are clearly in charge in Albany. fl-1 fl-sen ga-gov ga-lg nc-11 ne-gov nv-sen ny-1 ny-12 ny-gov va-2 va-gov wi-3. April 9, 2021 by Izengabe. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 8, 2021 Please check back at 7p ET for our liveblog for tonight’s New Jersey and Virginia primaries! Our Preview of the races is HERE! Senate: AL-Sen: As expected, former Sen. Richard Shelby (R) aide and Chamber of Commerce official Katie Boyd-Britt (R) has filed to run for her retiring boss’s Senate seat. She joins Rep. Mo Brooks (R) and former Ambassador to Slovenia Lydia Blanchard (R) in the ANCHORAGE MAYOR 2021 RESULTS INTERACTIVE MAP Dave Bronson (R) beat Forrest Dunbar (D) in the Anchorage mayoral runoff election 50.7-49.3%. Below, you’ll find an interactive map of the runoff and primary election. Click the Menu button to change maps. More analysis and maps may come at a more sane hour. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 5TH, 2021 About Last Night . . . In Cincinnati, Democrats Aftab Pureval and David Mann are heading to a runoff, with the former getting about 40% of the vote and the latter 30% in the Queen City’s California-Rules Top-Two mayoral primary. Now, onto the news! National: Trump’s Platform: Trump is launching a “Communications Platform” after being banned from Twitter and Facebook, in order to VIRGINIA & NEW JERSEY PRIMARY LIVEBLOG Results: VA-D || VA-R || NJ 7:00 ET: Polls have now closed in Virginia 7:16 ET: Our first precinct is in for the Virginia D primary, only 35 votes in rural Richmond County (not the city, for the record) and TMac & Ayala are both at 57% there and way ahead of everyone else. The AG race is much closer, with Herring up a whopping 5 votes. 7:18 ET: We’re up to 40 precincts now, and while TMac is TEXAS MAYORAL RUNOFFS & MEXICAN ELECTION PREVIEW & OPEN Results: Tarrant County 10:20 ET- Another vote dump has come in and Parker is leading by 5 points. Ready to call this one, that’s a wrap for tonight. 10:05 ET- Simple extrapolation would suggest there are around 20K votes left to count in Fort Worth; with Parker leading by 4K Peoples would need to win the remaining votes roughly 60-40 to close the gap. 10:00 ET- Finally some election day WV-SEN: JOE MANCHIN SWITCHING TO GOP, REPUBLICANS REGAIN In a press conference scheduled for noon today West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin will announce that he is leaving the Democratic Party and will become a Republican. This will flip control of the US Senate to the GOP instantly making Sen. Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader. Manchin will also take over as Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Manchin has been a fixture in FL-SEN: REP. VAL DEMINGS (D) WILL RUN FOR SENATE As was rumored a few weeks ago, three-term Rep. Val Demings (D) announced her run for Senate today. Demings is likely to get an effectively cleared primary field, as her most likely rival, fellow Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) has bowed out of the race. Controversial ex-Rep. Alan Grayson (D) is in the race, but unlikely to get much establishment support, while Miami city councilman Ken Russell (DRRH ELECTIONS
Ex-State Rep. and 2017 candidate Jack Ciattarelli (R) is the presumptive GOP nominee, as he has collected unanimous establishment support from the state’s powerful county GOP machines.A CPA by trade, Ciattarelli has also run a small book publishing company. He was first elected to local office in upscale suburban Somerset County in two stints in the 90s and 2000s before winning a then-GOP POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 17, 2021 A not-so-happy tax day! As a reminder, your federal income tax return is due today, if you haven’t filed already. Reminder: We are still planning to poll the NM-1 Special Election. Anyone who donates at least $10 to our effort by clicking on the big yellow Donate button to the right (computers) or near the bottom (phones) of this Roundup with a valid e-mail address will receive the poll 1 MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the currentLA-2 RUNOFF PREVIEW
LA-2 Runoff Preview. This Saturday, there is a D-on-D congressional runoff in Louisiana. Polls close at 9p ET and we will be liveblogging (with a livemap!). LA-2: LA-2 is a Black-majority D+25 (16/20) seat covering most of the city of New Orleans, most of its lower-middle-class Westbank suburbs, and the poor, heavily Black northside of Baton
USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election.MI-08 RECAP
It wasn’t a shocker that Paul Junge won the MI-08 primary. He was favored by most pundits to clean up, but it wasn’t as easy of a primary as he thought. The final results overall are: Paul Junge – 30,475 – 35.13% Mike Detmer – 24,796 – 28.59% Kristina Lyke – 22,028 – 25.40% Alan Hoover – 9,438 – 10.88% The results were not uniform across the area. Junge (lives in Brighton POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2020 Senate: AL-Sen: A new poll of the Republican primary shows the race certain to head to a runoff. Ex-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) has 31% in the poll, while former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) is close behind at 29%. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) gets 17% in the poll, while Roy Moore is far behind at 5%. Sessions leads in runoff matchups with Tuberville and Byrne, although Tuberville does WV-SEN: JOE MANCHIN SWITCHING TO GOP, REPUBLICANS REGAIN In a press conference scheduled for noon today West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin will announce that he is leaving the Democratic Party and will become a Republican. This will flip control of the US Senate to the GOP instantly making Sen. Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader. Manchin will also take over as Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Manchin has been a fixture inRRH ELECTIONS
Ex-State Rep. and 2017 candidate Jack Ciattarelli (R) is the presumptive GOP nominee, as he has collected unanimous establishment support from the state’s powerful county GOP machines.A CPA by trade, Ciattarelli has also run a small book publishing company. He was first elected to local office in upscale suburban Somerset County in two stints in the 90s and 2000s before winning a then-GOP POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 17, 2021 A not-so-happy tax day! As a reminder, your federal income tax return is due today, if you haven’t filed already. Reminder: We are still planning to poll the NM-1 Special Election. Anyone who donates at least $10 to our effort by clicking on the big yellow Donate button to the right (computers) or near the bottom (phones) of this Roundup with a valid e-mail address will receive the poll 1 MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the currentLA-2 RUNOFF PREVIEW
LA-2 Runoff Preview. This Saturday, there is a D-on-D congressional runoff in Louisiana. Polls close at 9p ET and we will be liveblogging (with a livemap!). LA-2: LA-2 is a Black-majority D+25 (16/20) seat covering most of the city of New Orleans, most of its lower-middle-class Westbank suburbs, and the poor, heavily Black northside of Baton
USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election.MI-08 RECAP
It wasn’t a shocker that Paul Junge won the MI-08 primary. He was favored by most pundits to clean up, but it wasn’t as easy of a primary as he thought. The final results overall are: Paul Junge – 30,475 – 35.13% Mike Detmer – 24,796 – 28.59% Kristina Lyke – 22,028 – 25.40% Alan Hoover – 9,438 – 10.88% The results were not uniform across the area. Junge (lives in Brighton POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2020 Senate: AL-Sen: A new poll of the Republican primary shows the race certain to head to a runoff. Ex-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) has 31% in the poll, while former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) is close behind at 29%. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) gets 17% in the poll, while Roy Moore is far behind at 5%. Sessions leads in runoff matchups with Tuberville and Byrne, although Tuberville does WV-SEN: JOE MANCHIN SWITCHING TO GOP, REPUBLICANS REGAIN In a press conference scheduled for noon today West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin will announce that he is leaving the Democratic Party and will become a Republican. This will flip control of the US Senate to the GOP instantly making Sen. Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader. Manchin will also take over as Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Manchin has been a fixture in POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 9TH, 2021 About last night . . . In Virginia, Democrats nominated Terry McAuliffe for Governor, Hala Ayala for Lt Governor, and re-nominated Mark Herring for AG. Democrats had 4 incumbents lose renomination for the VA House of Delegates, including both Mark Levine and Lee Carter. On the GOP side, a safe-seat delegate lost renomination to a member of Trump’s “Stop the Steal” legal team. In New POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 7TH, 2021 Check back at Noon today for our preview of tomorrow’s Virginia and New Jersey Primaries. Over the weekend, Republicans held the Mayoral seats in Fort Worth with Mattie Parker (R) and Arlington with Jim Ross (R). Javier Villalobos (R) flipped the Mayoral seat in McAllen in the RGV. Democrats flipped the city councils in Fort Worth and Plano, however. Elsewhere, in Mexico, allies of President POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 4, 2021 Many thanks to Vice President Harris for the short work week. Be sure to check back here on Saturday for Texas Mayoral & Mexico midterm legislative election results! Congress: FL-Sen: Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell (D) is in against incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Thus far, the Democratic field also includes Rep. Val Demings and grenade throwing former Rep. Alan Grayson. MO POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 8, 2021 Please check back at 7p ET for our liveblog for tonight’s New Jersey and Virginia primaries! Our Preview of the races is HERE! Senate: AL-Sen: As expected, former Sen. Richard Shelby (R) aide and Chamber of Commerce official Katie Boyd-Britt (R) has filed to run for her retiring boss’s Senate seat. She joins Rep. Mo Brooks (R) and former Ambassador to Slovenia Lydia Blanchard (R) in the VIRGINIA & NEW JERSEY PRIMARY LIVEBLOG Results: VA-D || VA-R || NJ 7:00 ET: Polls have now closed in Virginia 7:16 ET: Our first precinct is in for the Virginia D primary, only 35 votes in rural Richmond County (not the city, for the record) and TMac & Ayala are both at 57% there and way ahead of everyone else. The AG race is much closer, with Herring up a whopping 5 votes. 7:18 ET: We’re up to 40 precincts now, and while TMac is 2021 NEW JERSEY & VIRGINIA PRIMARY PREVIEW This week we have the primaries in both New Jersey and Virginia for statewide and legislative offices. Virginia’s statewide primary is for Dems only as GOP nominees were picked in a pseudo-convention last month. Polls close at 7p ET in Virginia and 8p ET in New Jersey; our liveblog will start at 7 tomorrow. NJ-Gov (R): New Jersey has a GOP primary for the gubernatorial seat this week.MI-08 RECAP
It wasn’t a shocker that Paul Junge won the MI-08 primary. He was favored by most pundits to clean up, but it wasn’t as easy of a primary as he thought. The final results overall are: Paul Junge – 30,475 – 35.13% Mike Detmer – 24,796 – 28.59% Kristina Lyke – 22,028 – 25.40% Alan Hoover – 9,438 – 10.88% The results were not uniform across the area. Junge (lives in Brighton TEXAS MAYORAL RUNOFFS & MEXICAN ELECTION PREVIEW & OPEN Results: Tarrant County 10:20 ET- Another vote dump has come in and Parker is leading by 5 points. Ready to call this one, that’s a wrap for tonight. 10:05 ET- Simple extrapolation would suggest there are around 20K votes left to count in Fort Worth; with Parker leading by 4K Peoples would need to win the remaining votes roughly 60-40 to close the gap. 10:00 ET- Finally some election day WV-SEN: JOE MANCHIN SWITCHING TO GOP, REPUBLICANS REGAIN In a press conference scheduled for noon today West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin will announce that he is leaving the Democratic Party and will become a Republican. This will flip control of the US Senate to the GOP instantly making Sen. Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader. Manchin will also take over as Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Manchin has been a fixture in FL-SEN: REP. VAL DEMINGS (D) WILL RUN FOR SENATE As was rumored a few weeks ago, three-term Rep. Val Demings (D) announced her run for Senate today. Demings is likely to get an effectively cleared primary field, as her most likely rival, fellow Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) has bowed out of the race. Controversial ex-Rep. Alan Grayson (D) is in the race, but unlikely to get much establishment support, while Miami city councilman Ken Russell (DRRH ELECTIONS
Elections and Campaigns from the Right Perspective. Texas Mayoral Runoffs: There are Mayoral runoff elections in 2 cities in Tarrant County today. We will have updates in this thread on Saturday night starting at 8p ET.. Fort Worth-Mayor: Fort Worth is a city of 910K, the nation’s 13th-largest. The population is roughly 40% White, 35% Hispanic, 20% Black, and 5% Asian. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the current CONNECTICUT REDISTRICTING Connecticut has a Democratic gerrymander right now, but the structure of the state’s redistricting process could allow Republicans to force the adoption of a fair map that would better represent the state’s partisan makeup, not to mention its communities of interest. Suffice it to say the current map is a travesty. 1st, D+15: Covering New Britain and the Hartford area, this is the safest 2022 SE MICHIGAN REDISTRICTING IMPACT PREVIEW 2022 SE Michigan Redistricting impact preview. After working on the redistricting impacts and long term trends on MI-5 in Metro Flint, I decided to expand this to the SE Michigan area. This will also include some “non Detroit area” districts because many districts are partially in the Detroit area or SE Michigan and cover other areas. USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2020 Senate: AL-Sen: A new poll of the Republican primary shows the race certain to head to a runoff. Ex-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) has 31% in the poll, while former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) is close behind at 29%. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) gets 17% in the poll, while Roy Moore is far behind at 5%. Sessions leads in runoff matchups with Tuberville and Byrne, although Tuberville does MI - TWO VRA DISTRICT FAIRMAP ATTEMPT. - RRH ELECTIONS This map I wanted to be fairly clean as possible with the 2 VRA districts. I didn’t want to take the district to Pontiac if possible. That means I had to take one to Macomb instead. Splitting South Warren and putting Eastpointe in the VRA district allowed a district entirely in Macomb County although it isn’t 100% swingish like an “All Macomb” should be. I kept all variations within HAS DR. SHIVA PROVEN MICHIGAN VOTER FRAUD? A recent youtube video by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai claims that precinct-level data in Michigan reveals voter fraud. Dr. Shiva has a Ph.D. in biological engineering from MIT. He has twice run for senate in Massachusetts as an independent, once after losing the Republican primary. He also has some “interesting” views on other topics, as detailed on his Wikipedia page. My favorite part of theRRH ELECTIONS
Elections and Campaigns from the Right Perspective. Texas Mayoral Runoffs: There are Mayoral runoff elections in 2 cities in Tarrant County today. We will have updates in this thread on Saturday night starting at 8p ET.. Fort Worth-Mayor: Fort Worth is a city of 910K, the nation’s 13th-largest. The population is roughly 40% White, 35% Hispanic, 20% Black, and 5% Asian. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the current CONNECTICUT REDISTRICTING Connecticut has a Democratic gerrymander right now, but the structure of the state’s redistricting process could allow Republicans to force the adoption of a fair map that would better represent the state’s partisan makeup, not to mention its communities of interest. Suffice it to say the current map is a travesty. 1st, D+15: Covering New Britain and the Hartford area, this is the safest 2022 SE MICHIGAN REDISTRICTING IMPACT PREVIEW 2022 SE Michigan Redistricting impact preview. After working on the redistricting impacts and long term trends on MI-5 in Metro Flint, I decided to expand this to the SE Michigan area. This will also include some “non Detroit area” districts because many districts are partially in the Detroit area or SE Michigan and cover other areas. USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2020 Senate: AL-Sen: A new poll of the Republican primary shows the race certain to head to a runoff. Ex-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) has 31% in the poll, while former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) is close behind at 29%. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) gets 17% in the poll, while Roy Moore is far behind at 5%. Sessions leads in runoff matchups with Tuberville and Byrne, although Tuberville does MI - TWO VRA DISTRICT FAIRMAP ATTEMPT. - RRH ELECTIONS This map I wanted to be fairly clean as possible with the 2 VRA districts. I didn’t want to take the district to Pontiac if possible. That means I had to take one to Macomb instead. Splitting South Warren and putting Eastpointe in the VRA district allowed a district entirely in Macomb County although it isn’t 100% swingish like an “All Macomb” should be. I kept all variations within HAS DR. SHIVA PROVEN MICHIGAN VOTER FRAUD? A recent youtube video by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai claims that precinct-level data in Michigan reveals voter fraud. Dr. Shiva has a Ph.D. in biological engineering from MIT. He has twice run for senate in Massachusetts as an independent, once after losing the Republican primary. He also has some “interesting” views on other topics, as detailed on his Wikipedia page. My favorite part of the POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 7TH, 2021 Check back at Noon today for our preview of tomorrow’s Virginia and New Jersey Primaries. Over the weekend, Republicans held the Mayoral seats in Fort Worth with Mattie Parker (R) and Arlington with Jim Ross (R). Javier Villalobos (R) flipped the Mayoral seat in McAllen in the RGV. Democrats flipped the city councils in Fort Worth and Plano, however. Elsewhere, in Mexico, allies of President POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 6, 2021 Happy local UK Election Day! Polls close at 5:00 PM eastern. We will also have a preview of this weekend’s Virginia convention coming at noon today. Congress: FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (R) lost to Rep. Charlie Crist (D) last November by 6 points and is running again for this seat in 2022. In October of last year, just before the general election, Luna filed a complaint with the FEC overLA-2 RUNOFF LIVEMAP
Here is our livemap for the Louisiana special election. 10:24 ET- 72%, Carter 56. We will call it for Carter at this point. 10:16 ET- 53% of election day, no change. I’m just about ready to call this one for Carter. 10:04 ET- 45% of election day in, still Carter 57. In other elections, Melerine (R) is up 60-40 in the BESE race with around 60% in and Schlegel (R) is leading the R-on-R LD-82 POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 4, 2021 Many thanks to Vice President Harris for the short work week. Be sure to check back here on Saturday for Texas Mayoral & Mexico midterm legislative election results! Congress: FL-Sen: Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell (D) is in against incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Thus far, the Democratic field also includes Rep. Val Demings and grenade throwing former Rep. Alan Grayson. MO WEEKEND OPEN THREAD FOR JUNE 4-6, 2021 Welcome to the weekend. Which House members will face each other in member-on-member primaries in 2022, and who will win? Which House members will lose primaries to non-member challengers in 2022? Which Biden-won county will go the longest before it votes for a Democrat again for president? And which Trump-won county will go the longest before it votes again for a Republican for 2021 NEW JERSEY & VIRGINIA PRIMARY PREVIEW This week we have the primaries in both New Jersey and Virginia for statewide and legislative offices. Virginia’s statewide primary is for Dems only as GOP nominees were picked in a pseudo-convention last month. Polls close at 7p ET in Virginia and 8p ET in New Jersey; our liveblog will start at 7 tomorrow. NJ-Gov (R): New Jersey has a GOP primary for the gubernatorial seat this week. 2022 REDISTRICTING ARCHIVES Results (some split areas approximates due to reprecincting and redistricting, esp before 2016) McCain 47.32%, Obama 50.84%, lost 177997-165667 – (New district results, but the old district flipped to the D’s) Romney 50.89%, Obama 47.88% – won 169283-159272 – Walberg won in 2010 and kept the seat in 2012. NM-1 SPECIAL ELECTION LIVEBLOG AND LIVEMAP Welcome to tonight’s liveblog and livemap of the NM-1 special election! You’ll find our livemap below the liveblog. Polls close at 9PM Eastern/7PM Mountain.MI-08 RECAP
It wasn’t a shocker that Paul Junge won the MI-08 primary. He was favored by most pundits to clean up, but it wasn’t as easy of a primary as he thought. The final results overall are: Paul Junge – 30,475 – 35.13% Mike Detmer – 24,796 – 28.59% Kristina Lyke – 22,028 – 25.40% Alan Hoover – 9,438 – 10.88% The results were not uniform across the area. Junge (lives in Brighton LA-2: REP. CEDRIC RICHMOND (D) TO RESIGN TO BECOME WHITE Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) announced this morning that he would be taking a job as a Senior Advisor in the Biden White House. The position does not require Senate confirmation. Richmond will resign before January 20, but it is unclear exactly when he will leave. Richmond’s decision opens up LA-2, a Black-majority D+25 seat. The seat’s base is in urban New Orleans, stretching to theRRH ELECTIONS
Elections and Campaigns from the Right Perspective. Texas Mayoral Runoffs: There are Mayoral runoff elections in 2 cities in Tarrant County today. We will have updates in this thread on Saturday night starting at 8p ET.. Fort Worth-Mayor: Fort Worth is a city of 910K, the nation’s 13th-largest. The population is roughly 40% White, 35% Hispanic, 20% Black, and 5% Asian. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the current CONNECTICUT REDISTRICTING Connecticut has a Democratic gerrymander right now, but the structure of the state’s redistricting process could allow Republicans to force the adoption of a fair map that would better represent the state’s partisan makeup, not to mention its communities of interest. Suffice it to say the current map is a travesty. 1st, D+15: Covering New Britain and the Hartford area, this is the safest 2022 SE MICHIGAN REDISTRICTING IMPACT PREVIEW 2022 SE Michigan Redistricting impact preview. After working on the redistricting impacts and long term trends on MI-5 in Metro Flint, I decided to expand this to the SE Michigan area. This will also include some “non Detroit area” districts because many districts are partially in the Detroit area or SE Michigan and cover other areas. USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2020 Senate: AL-Sen: A new poll of the Republican primary shows the race certain to head to a runoff. Ex-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) has 31% in the poll, while former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) is close behind at 29%. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) gets 17% in the poll, while Roy Moore is far behind at 5%. Sessions leads in runoff matchups with Tuberville and Byrne, although Tuberville does MI - TWO VRA DISTRICT FAIRMAP ATTEMPT. - RRH ELECTIONS This map I wanted to be fairly clean as possible with the 2 VRA districts. I didn’t want to take the district to Pontiac if possible. That means I had to take one to Macomb instead. Splitting South Warren and putting Eastpointe in the VRA district allowed a district entirely in Macomb County although it isn’t 100% swingish like an “All Macomb” should be. I kept all variations within HAS DR. SHIVA PROVEN MICHIGAN VOTER FRAUD? A recent youtube video by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai claims that precinct-level data in Michigan reveals voter fraud. Dr. Shiva has a Ph.D. in biological engineering from MIT. He has twice run for senate in Massachusetts as an independent, once after losing the Republican primary. He also has some “interesting” views on other topics, as detailed on his Wikipedia page. My favorite part of theRRH ELECTIONS
Elections and Campaigns from the Right Perspective. Texas Mayoral Runoffs: There are Mayoral runoff elections in 2 cities in Tarrant County today. We will have updates in this thread on Saturday night starting at 8p ET.. Fort Worth-Mayor: Fort Worth is a city of 910K, the nation’s 13th-largest. The population is roughly 40% White, 35% Hispanic, 20% Black, and 5% Asian. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the current CONNECTICUT REDISTRICTING Connecticut has a Democratic gerrymander right now, but the structure of the state’s redistricting process could allow Republicans to force the adoption of a fair map that would better represent the state’s partisan makeup, not to mention its communities of interest. Suffice it to say the current map is a travesty. 1st, D+15: Covering New Britain and the Hartford area, this is the safest 2022 SE MICHIGAN REDISTRICTING IMPACT PREVIEW 2022 SE Michigan Redistricting impact preview. After working on the redistricting impacts and long term trends on MI-5 in Metro Flint, I decided to expand this to the SE Michigan area. This will also include some “non Detroit area” districts because many districts are partially in the Detroit area or SE Michigan and cover other areas. USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2020 Senate: AL-Sen: A new poll of the Republican primary shows the race certain to head to a runoff. Ex-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) has 31% in the poll, while former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) is close behind at 29%. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) gets 17% in the poll, while Roy Moore is far behind at 5%. Sessions leads in runoff matchups with Tuberville and Byrne, although Tuberville does MI - TWO VRA DISTRICT FAIRMAP ATTEMPT. - RRH ELECTIONS This map I wanted to be fairly clean as possible with the 2 VRA districts. I didn’t want to take the district to Pontiac if possible. That means I had to take one to Macomb instead. Splitting South Warren and putting Eastpointe in the VRA district allowed a district entirely in Macomb County although it isn’t 100% swingish like an “All Macomb” should be. I kept all variations within HAS DR. SHIVA PROVEN MICHIGAN VOTER FRAUD? A recent youtube video by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai claims that precinct-level data in Michigan reveals voter fraud. Dr. Shiva has a Ph.D. in biological engineering from MIT. He has twice run for senate in Massachusetts as an independent, once after losing the Republican primary. He also has some “interesting” views on other topics, as detailed on his Wikipedia page. My favorite part of the POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 7TH, 2021 Check back at Noon today for our preview of tomorrow’s Virginia and New Jersey Primaries. Over the weekend, Republicans held the Mayoral seats in Fort Worth with Mattie Parker (R) and Arlington with Jim Ross (R). Javier Villalobos (R) flipped the Mayoral seat in McAllen in the RGV. Democrats flipped the city councils in Fort Worth and Plano, however. Elsewhere, in Mexico, allies of President POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 6, 2021 Happy local UK Election Day! Polls close at 5:00 PM eastern. We will also have a preview of this weekend’s Virginia convention coming at noon today. Congress: FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (R) lost to Rep. Charlie Crist (D) last November by 6 points and is running again for this seat in 2022. In October of last year, just before the general election, Luna filed a complaint with the FEC over POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 4, 2021 Many thanks to Vice President Harris for the short work week. Be sure to check back here on Saturday for Texas Mayoral & Mexico midterm legislative election results! Congress: FL-Sen: Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell (D) is in against incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Thus far, the Democratic field also includes Rep. Val Demings and grenade throwing former Rep. Alan Grayson. MOLA-2 RUNOFF LIVEMAP
Here is our livemap for the Louisiana special election. 10:24 ET- 72%, Carter 56. We will call it for Carter at this point. 10:16 ET- 53% of election day, no change. I’m just about ready to call this one for Carter. 10:04 ET- 45% of election day in, still Carter 57. In other elections, Melerine (R) is up 60-40 in the BESE race with around 60% in and Schlegel (R) is leading the R-on-R LD-82 WEEKEND OPEN THREAD FOR JUNE 4-6, 2021 Welcome to the weekend. Which House members will face each other in member-on-member primaries in 2022, and who will win? Which House members will lose primaries to non-member challengers in 2022? Which Biden-won county will go the longest before it votes for a Democrat again for president? And which Trump-won county will go the longest before it votes again for a Republican for 2021 NEW JERSEY & VIRGINIA PRIMARY PREVIEW This week we have the primaries in both New Jersey and Virginia for statewide and legislative offices. Virginia’s statewide primary is for Dems only as GOP nominees were picked in a pseudo-convention last month. Polls close at 7p ET in Virginia and 8p ET in New Jersey; our liveblog will start at 7 tomorrow. NJ-Gov (R): New Jersey has a GOP primary for the gubernatorial seat this week. 2022 REDISTRICTING ARCHIVES Results (some split areas approximates due to reprecincting and redistricting, esp before 2016) McCain 47.32%, Obama 50.84%, lost 177997-165667 – (New district results, but the old district flipped to the D’s) Romney 50.89%, Obama 47.88% – won 169283-159272 – Walberg won in 2010 and kept the seat in 2012. NM-1 SPECIAL ELECTION LIVEBLOG AND LIVEMAP Welcome to tonight’s liveblog and livemap of the NM-1 special election! You’ll find our livemap below the liveblog. Polls close at 9PM Eastern/7PM Mountain.MI-08 RECAP
It wasn’t a shocker that Paul Junge won the MI-08 primary. He was favored by most pundits to clean up, but it wasn’t as easy of a primary as he thought. The final results overall are: Paul Junge – 30,475 – 35.13% Mike Detmer – 24,796 – 28.59% Kristina Lyke – 22,028 – 25.40% Alan Hoover – 9,438 – 10.88% The results were not uniform across the area. Junge (lives in Brighton LA-2: REP. CEDRIC RICHMOND (D) TO RESIGN TO BECOME WHITE Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) announced this morning that he would be taking a job as a Senior Advisor in the Biden White House. The position does not require Senate confirmation. Richmond will resign before January 20, but it is unclear exactly when he will leave. Richmond’s decision opens up LA-2, a Black-majority D+25 seat. The seat’s base is in urban New Orleans, stretching to theRRH ELECTIONS
Elections and Campaigns from the Right Perspective. Texas Mayoral Runoffs: There are Mayoral runoff elections in 2 cities in Tarrant County today. We will have updates in this thread on Saturday night starting at 8p ET.. Fort Worth-Mayor: Fort Worth is a city of 910K, the nation’s 13th-largest. The population is roughly 40% White, 35% Hispanic, 20% Black, and 5% Asian. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the current CONNECTICUT REDISTRICTING Connecticut has a Democratic gerrymander right now, but the structure of the state’s redistricting process could allow Republicans to force the adoption of a fair map that would better represent the state’s partisan makeup, not to mention its communities of interest. Suffice it to say the current map is a travesty. 1st, D+15: Covering New Britain and the Hartford area, this is the safest 2022 SE MICHIGAN REDISTRICTING IMPACT PREVIEW 2022 SE Michigan Redistricting impact preview. After working on the redistricting impacts and long term trends on MI-5 in Metro Flint, I decided to expand this to the SE Michigan area. This will also include some “non Detroit area” districts because many districts are partially in the Detroit area or SE Michigan and cover other areas. USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2020 Senate: AL-Sen: A new poll of the Republican primary shows the race certain to head to a runoff. Ex-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) has 31% in the poll, while former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) is close behind at 29%. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) gets 17% in the poll, while Roy Moore is far behind at 5%. Sessions leads in runoff matchups with Tuberville and Byrne, although Tuberville does MI - TWO VRA DISTRICT FAIRMAP ATTEMPT. - RRH ELECTIONS This map I wanted to be fairly clean as possible with the 2 VRA districts. I didn’t want to take the district to Pontiac if possible. That means I had to take one to Macomb instead. Splitting South Warren and putting Eastpointe in the VRA district allowed a district entirely in Macomb County although it isn’t 100% swingish like an “All Macomb” should be. I kept all variations within HAS DR. SHIVA PROVEN MICHIGAN VOTER FRAUD? A recent youtube video by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai claims that precinct-level data in Michigan reveals voter fraud. Dr. Shiva has a Ph.D. in biological engineering from MIT. He has twice run for senate in Massachusetts as an independent, once after losing the Republican primary. He also has some “interesting” views on other topics, as detailed on his Wikipedia page. My favorite part of theRRH ELECTIONS
Elections and Campaigns from the Right Perspective. Texas Mayoral Runoffs: There are Mayoral runoff elections in 2 cities in Tarrant County today. We will have updates in this thread on Saturday night starting at 8p ET.. Fort Worth-Mayor: Fort Worth is a city of 910K, the nation’s 13th-largest. The population is roughly 40% White, 35% Hispanic, 20% Black, and 5% Asian. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 18, 2021 Exciting news: We have hit our fundraising targets and we are moving forward on polling NM-1! We hope to go into the field as soon as today. If you missed out on the fundraiser but still want to get this poll an hour early and support our next effort, please click the big yellow donate button to the right (on desktop) or below (on mobile) Also, check back at noon today for our preview and SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK 2021 MAYORAL ELECTION Saint John, the Loyalist City, is a city of 70,000 people on the north shore of the Bay of Fundy, home of the highest tides in the world, at the mouth of the St. John River, originating in Maine. Founded by Loyalists chiefly fleeing NYC, Long Island, and Boston, the city experienced an influx of Irish famine refugees between 1845-47 andremains
MINNESOTA 2020 REDISTRICTING Here are my Minnesota congressional maps for 7-District and 8-District scenarios. 7-District Map With Minnesota possibly losing 1 congressional district for the next redistricting cycle, here is a 7-district map for the state. MN-01: R+5. Keeps much of its current core like the cities of Mankato, Rochester and Winona. Retreats from the western reaches but takes a few counties from the current CONNECTICUT REDISTRICTING Connecticut has a Democratic gerrymander right now, but the structure of the state’s redistricting process could allow Republicans to force the adoption of a fair map that would better represent the state’s partisan makeup, not to mention its communities of interest. Suffice it to say the current map is a travesty. 1st, D+15: Covering New Britain and the Hartford area, this is the safest 2022 SE MICHIGAN REDISTRICTING IMPACT PREVIEW 2022 SE Michigan Redistricting impact preview. After working on the redistricting impacts and long term trends on MI-5 in Metro Flint, I decided to expand this to the SE Michigan area. This will also include some “non Detroit area” districts because many districts are partially in the Detroit area or SE Michigan and cover other areas. USING PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL TO PREDICT MIDTERMS Using Presidential Approval to Predict Midterms. It’s an axiom in political science that the president and his party get a share of the vote roughly equivalent to the president’s job approval. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump’s approval rating on election day was 45.9% according to RCP. He got 46.9% in the election. POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR FEBRUARY 13, 2020 Senate: AL-Sen: A new poll of the Republican primary shows the race certain to head to a runoff. Ex-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) has 31% in the poll, while former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) is close behind at 29%. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R) gets 17% in the poll, while Roy Moore is far behind at 5%. Sessions leads in runoff matchups with Tuberville and Byrne, although Tuberville does MI - TWO VRA DISTRICT FAIRMAP ATTEMPT. - RRH ELECTIONS This map I wanted to be fairly clean as possible with the 2 VRA districts. I didn’t want to take the district to Pontiac if possible. That means I had to take one to Macomb instead. Splitting South Warren and putting Eastpointe in the VRA district allowed a district entirely in Macomb County although it isn’t 100% swingish like an “All Macomb” should be. I kept all variations within HAS DR. SHIVA PROVEN MICHIGAN VOTER FRAUD? A recent youtube video by Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai claims that precinct-level data in Michigan reveals voter fraud. Dr. Shiva has a Ph.D. in biological engineering from MIT. He has twice run for senate in Massachusetts as an independent, once after losing the Republican primary. He also has some “interesting” views on other topics, as detailed on his Wikipedia page. My favorite part of the POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 7TH, 2021 Check back at Noon today for our preview of tomorrow’s Virginia and New Jersey Primaries. Over the weekend, Republicans held the Mayoral seats in Fort Worth with Mattie Parker (R) and Arlington with Jim Ross (R). Javier Villalobos (R) flipped the Mayoral seat in McAllen in the RGV. Democrats flipped the city councils in Fort Worth and Plano, however. Elsewhere, in Mexico, allies of President POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR MAY 6, 2021 Happy local UK Election Day! Polls close at 5:00 PM eastern. We will also have a preview of this weekend’s Virginia convention coming at noon today. Congress: FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (R) lost to Rep. Charlie Crist (D) last November by 6 points and is running again for this seat in 2022. In October of last year, just before the general election, Luna filed a complaint with the FEC over POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JUNE 4, 2021 Many thanks to Vice President Harris for the short work week. Be sure to check back here on Saturday for Texas Mayoral & Mexico midterm legislative election results! Congress: FL-Sen: Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell (D) is in against incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Thus far, the Democratic field also includes Rep. Val Demings and grenade throwing former Rep. Alan Grayson. MOLA-2 RUNOFF LIVEMAP
Here is our livemap for the Louisiana special election. 10:24 ET- 72%, Carter 56. We will call it for Carter at this point. 10:16 ET- 53% of election day, no change. I’m just about ready to call this one for Carter. 10:04 ET- 45% of election day in, still Carter 57. In other elections, Melerine (R) is up 60-40 in the BESE race with around 60% in and Schlegel (R) is leading the R-on-R LD-82 WEEKEND OPEN THREAD FOR JUNE 4-6, 2021 Welcome to the weekend. Which House members will face each other in member-on-member primaries in 2022, and who will win? Which House members will lose primaries to non-member challengers in 2022? Which Biden-won county will go the longest before it votes for a Democrat again for president? And which Trump-won county will go the longest before it votes again for a Republican for 2021 NEW JERSEY & VIRGINIA PRIMARY PREVIEW This week we have the primaries in both New Jersey and Virginia for statewide and legislative offices. Virginia’s statewide primary is for Dems only as GOP nominees were picked in a pseudo-convention last month. Polls close at 7p ET in Virginia and 8p ET in New Jersey; our liveblog will start at 7 tomorrow. NJ-Gov (R): New Jersey has a GOP primary for the gubernatorial seat this week. 2022 REDISTRICTING ARCHIVES Results (some split areas approximates due to reprecincting and redistricting, esp before 2016) McCain 47.32%, Obama 50.84%, lost 177997-165667 – (New district results, but the old district flipped to the D’s) Romney 50.89%, Obama 47.88% – won 169283-159272 – Walberg won in 2010 and kept the seat in 2012. NM-1 SPECIAL ELECTION LIVEBLOG AND LIVEMAP Welcome to tonight’s liveblog and livemap of the NM-1 special election! You’ll find our livemap below the liveblog. Polls close at 9PM Eastern/7PM Mountain.MI-08 RECAP
It wasn’t a shocker that Paul Junge won the MI-08 primary. He was favored by most pundits to clean up, but it wasn’t as easy of a primary as he thought. The final results overall are: Paul Junge – 30,475 – 35.13% Mike Detmer – 24,796 – 28.59% Kristina Lyke – 22,028 – 25.40% Alan Hoover – 9,438 – 10.88% The results were not uniform across the area. Junge (lives in Brighton LA-2: REP. CEDRIC RICHMOND (D) TO RESIGN TO BECOME WHITE Louisiana Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) announced this morning that he would be taking a job as a Senior Advisor in the Biden White House. The position does not require Senate confirmation. Richmond will resign before January 20, but it is unclear exactly when he will leave. Richmond’s decision opens up LA-2, a Black-majority D+25 seat. The seat’s base is in urban New Orleans, stretching to the Our website uses cookies to personalize features and optimize your experience. Privacy PolicyAwesome!
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POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR OCTOBER 9, 2019 LAST NIGHT, Steven Reed (D) was elected Mayor in MONTGOMERY, AL, while Charles Francis (D) and Mary-Ann Baldwin (D) advanced to a runoff forMayor of RALEIGH.
Also our Louisiana Legislative Primary Previews are now up HERE.
Our preview of the statewide, local, and state school board races will come tomorrow at noon. Now A SAD NOTE ABOUT OUR LOUISIANA POLL: Unfortunately, there seems to have been a snafu in our poll of Louisiana. When we received the data from our call vendor, the toplines seemed reasonable, but we noticed that there were a large number of unreasonable crosstab breakouts – things like half of people who disapproved of Trump voting Republican for Governor, for example. What we think happened is that there was some sort of software or human error that caused the responses to be randomized. As a result, we have no confidence that the responses and demographics are paired correctly, and we can not properly weight the results. If our vendor gets a better set of results back to us in time we will publish them, but we are not going to publish data we can not stand behind. If you donated to the poll, check your email – we have sent you the unweighted topline results and the response file, such as it is, for you to play around with as a thank-you. PRESIDENT & NATIONAL:Yang
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Yang has hit the threshold for the November debate, making him the third second-tier candidate to do so in addition to the Top 5, Booker,and Steyer.
Harris
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538 has an interesting pre-mortem on why Harris’s campaign seems to be falling out of the top-tier. They have a number of different reasons, from rivals who are better-known and liked by the Dem base in Biden and Warren, to a tone that seems too vague and inappropriate for Dems’ dour mood, to getting caught in the gap between the bold progressive and establishment liberal elements of the primaryelectorate.
SENATE:
AZ-Sen
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Astronaut and pyramid-scheme pitchman Mark Kelly (D) continues his string of massive fundraising hauls, with $5.5M raised in Q3. His likely rival, appointed incumbent Martha McSally (R), notched a good-but-not great $3M in the last quarter. Businessman and amateur conquistador Daniel McCarthy (R) is also in the race.WV-Sen
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Religious conservative lobbyist Allen Whitt (R), who heads a state-level social-conservative group, will take on Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) in the GOP primary. Whitt is hitting Capito from the right on her support for “red flag” gun laws. Liberal 2018 candidate Paula-Jean Swearengin (D) is in the race for Dems.GOVERNOR:
IN-Gov
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State Sen. Eddie Melton (D) of Gary officially entered the race to take on Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) this week, and he did so with an unusual endorsement. Incumbent State Superintendent Jennifer McCormick (R), who is not seeking re-election as her office is being converted to an appointed position, appeared at Melton’s campaign launch, and neither has ruled out McCormick running as Melton’s LG running mate. Melton is facing former appointed state Health Commissioner Woody Myers (D) and tech executive Josh Owens (D) in the primary to take onHolcomb.
HOUSE:
AZ-1
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Williams (pop. 3K) Mayor John Moore (R) is the third candidate into the primary to take on Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D) in this Mathismandered purple seat covering the state’s northeast and a random tail into exurban areas north of Tucson. Moore joins 2018 candidate Tiffany Shedd (R) and Safford councilman Chris Taylor (R) in the race on the GOP side; ex-State Sen. Barbara McGuire (D) and Flagstaff councilwoman Eva Putzova (D) are challenging O’Halleran in the Democratic primary.CA-16
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Merced (pop. 83K) Mayor Mike Murphy (R) is considering a run against Rep. Jim Costa (D) as an Independent. Costa has had some close calls in previous years due to low Hispanic turnout in this medium-blue Fresno-based seat, though he has tended to win easily in Presidential races. Fresno councilwoman Esmeralda Soria (D) is already in the race against Costa, challenging the moderate incumbent from the left.GA-1
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Veteran and businessman Danny Merritt (R) has had his twitter account reinstated after he was banned by the company for allegedly managing multiple sock puppet accounts. Merritt’s account was reactivated after _National Review_ picked up the story. The brouhaha with twitter as the bogeyman will likely wind up being a net positive for Merritt, who is attempting to get name recognition for a challenge to Rep. Buddy Carter (R) in the primary for this conservative Savannah-basedseat.
IN-5
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One candidate has jumped in and one has jumped out of the GOP primary race for this medium-red suburban Indianapolis open seat. Former state DMV director and veteran Kent Abernathy (R) has entered the race, joining State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell (R) as a notable candidate here. Ex-State Rep. and 2018 IN-4 candidate Steve Braun (R), meanwhile, has ended his bid, citing an unspecified health issue. Three other little-known Republicans are in the race as well. 2018 nominee Dee Thornton (D) and Ex-State Rep. and 2016 LG nominee Christina Hale (D) are in the race for Democrats.KS-3
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Ex-Roeland Park (pop. 7K) Mayor Adrienne Vallejo-Foster (R), who also served in the Gov. Sam Brownback (R) administration, is the third Republican to jump into the primary to challenge Rep. Sharice Davids (D) in this purple suburban Kansas City based seat. She joins nonprofit exec Sara Hart-Weir (R) and ex-KSGOP chair Amanda Adkins (R)in the primary.
ME-2
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Adrienne Bennett (R), former press secretary for ex-Gov. Paul LePage (R), has thrown her hat into the ring in the primary to take on Rep. Jared Golden (D) in this rural seat covering the northern 3/4 of the state. Bennett joins libertarian-leaning ex-State Sen. and 2018 US Senate nominee Eric Brakey (R) and ex-State Rep. Dale Crafts (R) in the GOP primary to take on Golden.OH-1
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Rep. Steve Chabot (R) has hired a new campaign manager and has announced he is running for re-election to his medium-red Cincinnati-based seat. Chabot has been on retirement watchlists after money went missing from his campaign account earlier this year, the investigation of which is centering around his former campaign manager Jamie Schwartz. Appointed Cincinnati municipal board member Kate Schroder (D) and aerospace executive and 2018 State House candidate Nikki Foster (D) are facing off in the Dem primary to take on Chabot.PA-17
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Veteran and business consultant Brian Thomsen’s (R) campaign to take on Rep. Conor Lamb (D) in this purple judicialmandered suburban Pittsburgh seat is not exactly off to a great start, as it was revealed that Thomsen is registered to vote in North Carolina… where he is on probation for embezzling money from a farmers’ cooperative. Businessman Scott Timko (R) is also in the race to take on Lamb.UT-1
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Clearfield (pop. 30K) Mayor Mark Shepherd (R) has become the third candidate into the primary for this deep-red seat covering the northern part of the state. Shepherd joins Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt (R) and Morgan County commissioner Tina Cannon (R) in the race to replace retiring Rep. Rob Bishop (R), who is considering a run forGovernor.
STATE & LOCAL:
KY-AG
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Hearings were held Monday in a lawsuit over whether Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) aide Daniel Cameron (R) is constitutionally eligible to serve as AG. At issue is whether Cameron’s two years clerking for a federal judge count towards the 8-year practicing law requirement for AG, as Cameron has only been a bar member for exactly 8 years, including the clerkship. Cameron is facing ex-AG and ex-State House Speaker Greg Stumbo (D) in next month’s general election.MO-SoS
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Prosecutor and veteran Yinka Faleti (D) is the first candidate to declare a challenge to SoS Jay Ashcroft (R). Faleti has not had any significant political resume, but does have big names in Missouri Democratic circles in his campaign organization, so he could potentially prepare a serious challenge.MT-AG
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Attorney and 2018 State House candidate Jim Cossitt (D) has dropped his bid for AG. State Rep. Kim Dudik (D) and Gov. Steve Bullock (D) aide Ralph Graybill (D) remain in the Democratic primary for the seat being vacated by termed-out incumbent and gubernatorial candidate Tim Fox (R). Republicans have a primary between ex-State House Speaker Austin Knudsen (R) and Fox’s top deputy Jon Bennion (R).MT-SoS
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Christi Jacobsen (R), CoS to incumbent Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R), has filed to seek the seat her boss is giving up to run for the state’s at-large congressional seat. Jacobsen joins State Senate Pres. Scott Sales (R) and State Rep. Forrest Mandeville (R) in the GOP primary; State Sen. Bryce Bennett (D) is running forDemocrats.
NC-Ins
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NCDP chair and ex-Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin (D) is raising money for a comeback bid to the seat he lost in a significant upset in 2016. Should he enter, Goodwin will face a rematch with now-incumbent Mike Causey (R), who ousted him by a half-point margin three yearsago.
IA-House Speaker
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State Rep. Pat Grassley (R), grandson of US Sen. Chuck (R), is Iowa’s new designate for House Speaker after winning a GOP caucus vote earlier this week. Incumbent Speaker Linda Upmeyer (R) announced that she will be stepping down from the post next year.MD-LD-22
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State Rep. Tawanna Gaines (D) has resigned after being charged with wire fraud for embezzling campaign funds for personal use. Gaines represents a deep-blue seat around Greenbelt in the DC suburbs. Anchorage Mayor ’21:
Anchorage councilman Forrest Dunbar (D) will run for Mayor in the spring 2021 election. Dunbar, who had also been speculated as a potential challenger for Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R), is the first candidate into the race to succeed termed-out incumbent EthanBerkowitz (D).
INTERNATIONAL:
Portgual :
Portugal’s governing Socialists won the election this past weekend. However, their performance was somewhat short of polling and expectations that had PM Antonio Costa within striking distance of an outright majority. A continuation of Costa’s current arrangement of a minority government supported by two left-wing parties, the SJW-flavored Left Bloc and the neo-Communist Communist-Green Coalition, looks likely. Kosovo : The elections this past weekend in Kosovo produced a fractured result, with the two largest parties being the left-wing nationalist Self Determination and the center-right and relatively Europhilic Democratic League.Sri Lanka
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President Maithripala Sirisena failed to pay a deposit to get on the ballot for a second term, meaning he will not be contesting next month’s election. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, brother of Sirisena’s predecessor, is considered the favorite in the race. October 9, 2019 by shamlet__
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RALEIGH & MONTGOMERY MAYORAL PREVIEW & LIVEBLOG RESULTS: Raleigh (WRAL-TV) || Montgomery (Montgomery Advertiser) 10:00 ET- I am calling a Francis-Baldwin runoff as they are tied at 36 with 41% reporting. Sullivan remains in a distant third with 19. 8:50 ET- With 5% of election day vote in for Raleigh, Baldwin is up 36-35 on Francis with Sullivan at 19. A Baldwin-Francis runoff seemsall but certain.
8:45 ET- 36% in for Montgomery and I think we can call that race for Reed, who is up 68-32. 7:47 ET- With about 14K early votes counted in Raleigh, Francis and Baldwin are neck and neck at 36 with Sullivan trailing with 19. Tomorrow there are a handful of Mayoral elections; the only competitive ones are a Louisiana Rules Top Two race in Raleigh and a runoff in Montgomery. As we are hoping to release our Louisiana poll tomorrow, we will put this preview up today to avoid overloading things tomorrow during the day; it will be bumped to the top of the FP tomorrow evening. Poll closing times are as follows and we will be liveblogging IN THIS THREAD. 7:30 ET – Raleigh || 8 ET – Montgomery RALEIGH-MAYOR: The biggest race of the day is the open seat race for Mayor of Raleigh. Raleigh has a population of 465K, which breaks down as roughly 55% White, 30% Black, 10% Hispanic, and 5% Asian. Raleigh is a roughly circular city including the entire urban core and most first-ring suburbs. It roughly divides into three major socioeconomic regions in a “Y” shape. The northern part of the city is a very wealthy White-majority area, historically Republican but trending left in recent years. The southwest part of the city is a middle-class to upscale predominantly White liberal area with some racially diverse pockets, anchored by NC State. And the southeast part of the city is a Black-majority area, with some poor neighborhoods near downtown but also a large middle-class Black community along the edges of the city. Six candidates are facing off for the open Mayoral seat in a Louisiana Rules Top Two format; the seat is open as longtime incumbent Nancy McFarlane (I), a center-left Indie, is retiring. Ex-councilman 2017 candidate CHARLES FRANCIS (D) took 42% against McFarlane two years ago on the back of strong support in the Black community. Francis is a bit of an ideological shape-shifter: he ran to McFarlane’s left in the first round two years ago, but moved to the right in the runoff and received significant GOP support there. This year, he has shifted somewhat back to the left, running as a mainstream establishment liberal with mild bold progressive tendencies. Francis is generally considered likely to come in first due to his name recognition and Black community base, but he has been somewhat polarizing with non-Black voters, so he may have a difficulttime in the runoff.
Ex-Wake County commissioner CAROLINE SULLIVAN (D) has fundraised very well, and has a pair of big-name endorsements from McFarlane and Hillary. Sullivan served on the county board from 2012 to 2016, retiring after one term. She is running in this race as an upscale establishment liberal with some slight moderate tendencies, very much in the McFarlane mold. However, beyond McFarlane, she does not have particularly strong connections in the local establishment. Ex-councilwoman MARY-ANN BALDWIN (D) served a decade on the city council before retiring in 2017. Baldwin is best described as a corporate-friendly upscale liberal, with an ideological liberalism that is not particularly hostile to business. Her signature issue is construction of more affordable housing in the growing city. Baldwin has fundraised well and has significant establishment support from her time on the council; she also secured the endorsement of the city’s main newspaper, the _News & Observer_. Baldwin is similar to Sullivan ideologically, but is regarded as a bit to Sullivan’s left and significantly more pugnacious in tone. The other three candidates seem long-shots. Former council candidate ZAINAB BALOCH (D) came in fifth in a race for two at-large seats on the council in 2017. Baloch is running on a far-left platform and has received some far-left support, especially for her identity politics appeal as a hijab-wearing Muslim and youth at age 28. However, she has little name recognition or establishment support. Attorney JUSTIN SUTTON (D) works as a staffer in state government and is arguably the most moderate candidate in the field, running as a moderate liberal. However, his name recognition and funding is very sparse. Finally, musician GEORGE KNOTT (D) is basically a joke candidate; he is most notable for a call to ban leaf blowers, though he is using the attention to also make some more serious points about growthmanagement.
Overall, CW has the race as likely headed to a runoff next month between Francis and either Sullivan or Baldwin, with no clear favorite between Sullivan and Baldwin for the second slot. There is also perhaps a slim chance for Sullivan and Baldwin to advance if Francisunderperforms.
MONTGOMERY-MAYOR: Heading outside of North Carolina, there is also a runoff for Mayor in Montgomery, Alabama. Montgomery’s population of 200K is 55% Black and 35% White. Typical of the Deep South, the main divide is racial, as the north, west, and south sides of the city are heavily Black and largely poor, while the central and eastern parts of the city are generally middle-class to upscale and White. Montgomery is fairly strongly Democratic at the Presidential level with a PVI of D+13, but Republicans have been able to win local elections due to turnout disparity in odd-timed races. This week is the runoff election for Mayor; the seat is open as incumbent Todd Strange (R) is retiring. Judge STEVEN REED (D) took first in the August primary with 42%. Reed is the son of Joe Reed, a longtime Teachers’ Union and Democratic party official who has long been among the most powerful behind-the-scenes players in the state Democratic Party. The younger Reed leveraged his family connections to win a county probate judge seat in 2012, and has once again found his connections useful in this race, as he raised the most of the field by a healthy margin. Reed is unsurprisingly running as an establishment liberal. He has been criticized as being light on experience and a poor administrator of the probate court during his tenure. However, his August performance exceeded expectations and he very much looks like the favorite in the second round to become the city’s first-ever African-American Mayor, and the first Democrat elected mayor since 1975. TV Station owner DAVID WOODS (R) is Reed’s runoff rival after coming in second in the August primary with 24%. Woods owns the area’s local FOX affiliate, WCOV-TV, and previously ran for Congress in AL-2 back in 2008. He is running as a mainstream conservative and has had good but not great fundraising. Woods could very realistically use his name recognition from this race to pivot to a second AL-2 bid if he falls short. As Democrats took 62% in the first round to 37% for Republicans, Reed looks like a very strong favorite in the runoff, though Woods may have a small chance if White turnout is high and Black turnout is low. Finally, I should briefly mention two other mayoral races in North Carolina. They are nominally California Rules Top Two, but will be walkover wins for the incumbents. DURHAM-MAYOR: Durham is a city of 265K with a population that breaks down as roughly 40% each White and Black and 15% Hispanic. The west side of the city is an upscale White liberal area anchored by Duke University, while the east side of the city is generally poor and heavily Black. Both of these areas are overwhelmingly, Democratic and Durham has a deep-blue PVI of D+31. Incumbent STEVE SCHEWEL (D) is a bold progressive who fits fairly cleanly in the aging-hipster mold, which is not a bad fit for the very liberal college town. Schewel is seeking a second two-year term and set to win it in a walkover as he faces no credible opposition. As he has only one opponent, Schewel will advance to the general with pastor and perennial candidate SYLVESTER WILLIAMS (I). Williams, a staunch social conservative, is making his fourth try for the office after taking 1% and fourth place two years ago. Obviously Williams will likely attract only scatteredprotest votes.
FAYETTEVILLE-MAYOR: Fayetteville has a population of 210K, which breaks down as roughly 45% White, 40% Black, and 10% Hispanic. It is best known as the home of Fort Bragg and the economy is heavily Military-based; the city has a PVI of D+13. This race is the most boring of all this week, as incumbent MITCH COLVIN (D), an establishment liberal who defeated a GOP incumbent two years ago, is totally unopposed for a second term. October 8, 2019 by shamlet__
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POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR OCTOBER 8, 2019 We wish a peaceful Yom Kippur to all those observing. We have Mayoral elections today in a pair of state capitals – Raleigh, NC and Montgomery, AL; our preview is HERE.
Now today’s news:
PRESIDENT & NATIONAL:Sanders
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The Sanders campaign confirmed that the 78 year old did have a heartattack last week.
Warren
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Warren raised $24.6M in Q3, placing her haul just behind Sanders’s $25M and in second place among Dems. Buttgieg was third with $19M, Biden fourth with $15M, and Harris fifth with $11.6M.Debates
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Tom Steyer and Cory Booker have both met the Debate threshold, making them the first of the second-tier candidates to do so. Andrew Yang is one poll away, while Beto, Klobuchar, Gabbard, and Castro have met the donor requirement but are a ways away from meeting the pollingrequirement.
GOVERNOR:
KY-Gov, KY-LG
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Gov. Matt Bevin (R) is tipping his hand ever so slightly about the rationale behind decision to drop LG Jenean Hampton (R), saying somewhat tersely that he felt Hampton was not focusing on the priorities that he wanted her to focus on as LG. Bevin and Hampton’s staffers had had some clashes during the administration, which could have contributed to the rift. However, CW is that the decision to drop Hampton, a former State House candidate who signed on with Bevin’s underdog primary campaign in 2015 when he was a decided long-shot, in favor of State Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R) was a bid to mend some fences with Republicans in the legislature, with whom Bevin has had a strained relationship. Bevin faces AG Andy Beshear (D) in next month’s election, and the decision to drop Hampton has irked some of her movement conservative fans. LA-Gov : Our friend John Couvillon has an analysis of Louisiana’s Early Voting now that it has concluded. By party registration, the numbers seem to look good for Republicans hoping to hold Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) to a runoff, though not quite as good as before Democrats saw a surge in turnout over the weekend. Couvillon also forecasts turnout to be somewhat higher than in 2015, though the Early Voting is also likely canibalizing a significant number of election day voters as well.WV-Gov
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Kanawha County commissioner Ben Salango (D) has become the third Democrat into the primary for Governor. Salango, who was appointed to his commission seat in 2017 and won a full term last year, joins State Sen. Ron Stollings (D) and lobbyist Stephen Smith (D) in the primary. Gov. Jim Justice (D->R) is facing his former state Commerce Secretary Woody Thrasher (D->R) and ex-State Rep. Mike Folk (R) in the GOPprimary.
HOUSE:
ME-2
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Ex-State Rep. Dale Crafts (R), who served four terms in the legislature before terming out in 2016, will enter the GOP primary to take on Rep. Jared Golden (D) in this purple seat covering the northern 3/4 of the state. Crafts joins ex-State Sen. and 2018 US Senate nominee Eric Brakey (R) in the race. Ex-Gov. Paul LePage’s (R) press secretary Adrienne Bennett (R) is also likely to run.MI-8
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Car dealership manager Mike Detmer (R) is jumping upward into the race against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), abandoning a State Rep. run to do so. He joins elected state school board member Nikki Snyder (R) in the primary to take on Slotkin in this purple seat stretching from Detroit’s outer northwest suburbs to Lansing.NY-14
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NYC Councilman Fernando Cabrera (D), a socially moderate pastor, has filed to challenge Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) in the primary. AOC has not been on great terms with the local D machine in her deep-blue seat stretching from the East Bronx to central Queens, but Cabrera’s social moderation presents its own set of issues in aprimary electorate.
STATE, LOCAL & INTERNATIONAL: San Francisco-DA, Los Angeles-DA:
San Francisco DA George Gascon (D), a leader in implementing left-wing soft-on-crime policies as DA, is resigning this month, just weeks before his term concludes. Why? Word is he is set to carpetbag to Los Angeles (!) to seek the same position there, taking on incumbent Jackie Lacey (D) next year from the left. Prosecutor Joseph Iniguez (D) is also running against Lacey on a soft-on-crime platform.London-Mayor
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MP Rory Stewart, one of 21 Conservative MPs who were booted out of the party for their work against PM Boris Johnson’s (C) no-deal Brexit plan, will run for Mayor of London as an Independent next year. Incumbent Labor Mayor Sadiq Khan is facing Conservative city councilman Shaun Bailey, Lib Dem university administrator Siobhan Benita, and Green city councilwoman Sian Berry, in addition toStewart.
October 8, 2019 by shamlet__
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POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR OCTOBER 7, 2019GOVERNOR:
MS-Gov
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Trump officially endorsed LG Tate Reeves (R) last week in his gubernatorial bid. Reeves is facing off with AG Jim Hood (D). For his part, Hood has released a new ad hitting Reeves on his alleged attempt to pull strings to build a road connecting his gated community in the Jackson suburbs with a nearbyshopping center.
MT-Gov
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Consultant and Heir Force Col. Whitney Williams (D), daughter of 80s-era ex-Rep. Pat (D) and ex-State Sen. Carol (D), has become the fourth Democrat in the race for Governor. Williams joins LG Mike Cooney (D), State House Minority Leader Casey Schreiner (D), and ex-State Rep. Reilly Neill (D) in the open-seat primary. Republicans have a primary between Rep. Greg Gianforte (R), AG Tim Fox (R), and State Sen. Al Olszewski (R).CONGRESS:
GA-Sen-I
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A flood of additional notable candidates have dropped their names into Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R) online resume bin for the appointment to Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R) Senate seat. Joining the list last week were no less than 9 new notable applicants: ex-Rep. and 2014 Senate candidate Jack Kingston (R), State Rep. Jan Jones (R), who is a big fish in the legislature, author and Heir Force Gen. Jackie Gingrich-Cushman (R), daughter of Newt, Ambassador to Luxembourg Randy Evans (R), State Sen. Tyler Harper (R), State Rep. Chuck Estrafson (R), ex-State Sen. Judson Hill (R), ex-State Rep. Melvin Everson (R), and ex-Alpharetta Mayor and 2018 SoS candidate David Belle-Isle (R). Those candidates bring the total of notable contenders to around 16; previously announced applicants included Rep. Doug Collins (R), ex-Rep. and 2014 Senate candidate Paul Broun (R), PSC Member Tim Echols (R), ex-HHS Secretary and ex-Rep. Tom Price (R), Alpharetta councilman Ben Burnett (R), and Kemp aides Martha Zoller (R) and Angelic Moore (R).CA-3
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Gospel musician Sean Fucht (R) will run for the congressional seat of Rep. John Garamendi (D). This medium-blue seat covering suburbs between Sacramento and the Bay Area and rural areas of the Sacramento Valley has occasionally been at the edge of the playing field but has never been a particularly enticing GOP target.FL-18
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Attorney and former state prosecutor Oz Vazquez (D) will challenge Rep. Brian Mast (R) in this light red seat covering the Port St. Lucie area as well as the northern suburbs of Palm Beach. Vazquez, the first notable Democrat to declare a run against Mast, is touting his experience working for a Republican in the AG’s office to burnish credentials as a moderate.MA-4
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Newton councilman Jake Auchincloss (D) is the latest candidate to join what is becoming a crowded primary field for the medium-blue Brookline to Fall River seat vacated by Heir Force Gen. Joe Kennedy III (D). Auchincloss joins his Newton council colleague Becky Walker-Grossman (D), nonprofit exec Alan Khazei (D), former Gov. Deval Patrick (D) aide Jesse Mermell (D), and financial regulator Ihssane Leckey (D) inthe race.
MN-8
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Ex-Baxter (pop. 8K) councilwoman Quinn Nystrom (D), who works as a healthcare consultant for patients and providers dealing with Type 1 (Juvenile) Diabetes, will challenge Rep. Pete Stauber (R) this cycle. Stauber is considered a strong incumbent for this strongly right-trending purple district based around Duluth and covering most of the northeast quarter of the state.MI-11
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Rep. Haley Stevens (D) was caught on camera screaming at constituents at a Town Hall meeting on gun control last week. The still photos from the event are an especially bad look for Stevens, who picked up this historically-Republican but now-purple seat in Detroit’s upscale northern and western suburbs last year. Local GOP official and actress Whittney Williams (R) is so far the only notable Republican in the race against Stevens.NE-1
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State Sen. Kate Bolz (D), who is termed out of her urban Lincoln legislative seat in 2020, will take on Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) in his conservative seat covering the Lincoln area and much of the rural eastern part of the state. Fortenberry has not faced a particularly serious challenger in recent memory and Bolz will likely face a very uphill race for the seat.NY-15
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Local community board member and far-left activist Samelys Lopez (D), who has ties to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), is the latest candidate into the field for Rep. Jose Serrano’s (D) open ultra-blue South Bronx seat. Lopez joins iconoclastic DINO NYC councilman Ruben Diaz Sr. (D), more liberal NYC councilmen Ritchie Torres (D) and Ydanis Rodriguez (D), State Rep. Michael Blake (D), ex-NYC Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito (D), and nonprofit execs Jonathan Ortiz (D) and Marlene Cintron (D) in the race.NY-22
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Ex-Rep. Claudia Tenney (R) is officially seeking a comeback against Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D), who ousted her last year in this medium-red seat covering the Utica and Binghamton areas. Tenney, an antiestablishment conservative who has never been popular with the area’s local GOP establishment, could face a tough primary for the right to take on Brindisi from Broome County DA Steve Cornwell (R). 2010 congressional nominee George Phillips (R) is also in the race.NY-27
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Medal of Honor recipient and 2012 candidate David Bellavia (R) is considering a second run for this medium-red suburban Buffalo-based seat now that Rep. Chris Collins (R) has resigned to plead guilty to insider trading charges. Bellavia is rumored to have strong support among the insiders who will pick the special election nominee, as many GOP officials are worried about losing State Sen. Chris Jacobs’s (R) Senate seat if he is picked. State Sen. Robert Ortt (R) and attorney Beth Parlato (R) are also in the race, and Erie County comptroller Stefan Mychajliw (R) is thought near-certain to mount a bid as well.OK-5
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Ex-State Schools Superintendent Janet Barresi (R) has jumped into the race to take on Rep. Kendra Horn (D) in this medium-red Oklahoma City based seat. Barresi was elected as Superintendent in 2010, serving a tumultuous term that was dominated by battles over Common Core. Barresi, who initially supported Common Core before reversing course, battled with then-Gov. Mary Fallin (R) and much of the state GOP establishment, leading to her ouster in the 2014 primary by now-Superintendent Joy Hofmeister (R). Thus, establishment Republicans are more likely to support her main rival in the Congressional race, State Sen. Stephanie Bice (R). However, Barresi does have some self-funding ability, which coupled with her name recognition could make her a formidable contender. Businesswoman Terry Neese (R) is also in the race to take on Horn.PA-17 :
Business consultant and former Green Beret Brian Thomsen (R) will seek to take on Rep. Conor Lamb (D) in this judicialmandered purple seat covering most of Pittsburgh’s northern, western, and southern suburbs. Thomsen joins businessman Scott Timko (R) in the race to takeon Lamb.
TX-11
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Businessman and former congressional staffer Brandon Batch (R) is the latest Republican into the race for this deep-red West Texas open seat. Batch joins Midland councilman J. Ross Lacy (R) and physician Richard Bartlett (R) in the race.TX-13
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Cooke County Executive Jason Brinkley (R) is the second candidate to announce a bid for this blood-red open seat. Brinkley, who hails from the fast-growing exurban Dallas portion of the district, will face Amarillo councilwoman and 2014 candidate Elaine Hays (R) in the primary, with many other Republicans considering. The nation’s reddest seat stretches from Gainesville in the DFW exurbs through the Wichita Falls area to take in essentially the entire Panhandle.VA-7
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Trump administration official Andrew Knaggs (R), who served in Iraq as a Green Beret, will challenge Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) in this medium-red seat stretching from western Richmond to the southern DC exurbs. Knaggs has a very interesting biography as the son of Caribbean immigrants from Haiti and Barbados who graduated from West Point. After attending law school, Knaggs worked for the Defense department, spending time as a staffer at the military’s IED-defeat organization before getting a fairly high-level Pentagon position under Trump focusing on Special Operations. Knaggs is the first candidate of note to declare a run against Spanberger.WA-8
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Amazon executive, Afghanistan veteran, and former congressional staffer Jesse Jensen (R) is the first notable candidate into the race to take on Rep. Kim Schrier (D) in this purple seat stretching from Seattle’s eastern suburbs to rural central Washington. Jensen appears to have significant establishment support.STATE & LOCAL:
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State Treasurer Colleen Davis (D) is pleading ignorance after an investigation had found she was improperly using a state-owned vehicle to commute to her home and for personal errands. The vehicle was found parked at Davis’s home over 30 times over the last year. Davis upset incumbent Treasurer Ken Simpler (R) last year on the 2018 wave.MT-Aud
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Businesswoman Nelly Nicol (R) has become the second Republican to enter the race for the open State Auditor (Insurance Commissioner) seat. Nicol joins storage company executive and 2018 US Senate candidate Troy Downing (R) and State Rep. Shane Morigeau (D) in the race to replace incumbent Matt Rosendale (R), who is running for the at-large US House seat.KY-LD-83
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Ex-Kentucky State House Speaker Jeff Hoover (R), who was forced out of the Speakership last year after acknowledging he signed a secret settlement with a staffer who accused him of sexual harassment, will not seek re-election to his rural legislative seat next year.Dade, FL-CE
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County commissioner Jean Montestime (D), who has a base in the county’s large Haitian-American community, is the fourth member of the county board to throw his hat into the ring for the Dade County Executive position, which is technically (and stupidly) called “Mayor”. Montestime joins fellow commissioners Steve Bovo (R), a Cuban Republican, Daniella Levine-Cava (D), a white liberal, and Xavier Suarez (I), a Cuban moderate and father of Miami Mayor Francis (R), in the race. Also in the race to succeed termed-out incumbent Carlos Gimenez (R) are 2000s-era ex-CE Alex Penelas (D) and ex-county commissioner Juan Zapata (R). The election is next fall.INTERNATIONAL:
Austria : Last week, Sebastian Kurz’s center-right People’s Party OVP notched a convincing win in Austria, making significant gains, though falling short of a majority. Kurz now needs to decide whether to make a coalition with the populist-right FPO, which he kicked out of his coalition before the election amid a corruption scandal, or potentially attempt to form a coalition with the center-left GreenParty.
Peru
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Peru has been gripped for the last few days by a constitutional crisis between President Martin Vizcarra and the Congress, with each now claiming the other is illegitimate. The linked article and thistwitter thread
are
worth a read on the complicated situation. October 7, 2019 by shamlet__
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WEEKEND OPEN THREAD FOR OCTOBER 4-6, 2019 Welcome to the weekend! This week’s questions are: 1: If the general election next year wound up as Trump vs Warren, who would you vote for? Would it be more of a vote in favor of one candidate or against the other (or against both if you’re votingprotest 3rd party)?
2: Where do you guys see Sanders’s campaign going from here? October 4, 2019 by Greyhound__
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