Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
More Annotations
A complete backup of pencaksilaturk.com
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
Hotel reservation system | Hotel software | Sirvoy
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
Clínica Kuxtal Aguascalientes
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
▷ Presupuestos Reformas Integrales de Casas | Presupuesto Online
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
Теплица + сад и огород своими руками: мы знаем об урожае все
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
HR Software India | Human Resource Management Software- sumHR
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
Sit – Bolig, mat, trening, helse, barnehager, forening, bokhandel
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
Favourite Annotations
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/turske-serije/elif-2014/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/latino-serije/grand-hotel-2011/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/turske-serije/kapetan-reis-2011/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/latino-serije/kameleoni-2009/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/turske-serije/cuda-se-desavaju/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/turske-serije/casni-ljudi-2012/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/vrtlog-zivota-epizoda-20/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/vrtlog-zivota-epizoda-15/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/nada-umire-poslednja-epizoda-18/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
A complete backup of https://balkanje.com/ne-brini-za-mene-epizoda-111/
Are you over 18 and want to see adult content?
Text
RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING 0 points. Most recent by Malmesbury 1:02PM. Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbe. 6.7K views 715 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fysics_Teacher 6:18AM. Supporting a better infrastructure is fine until it is your house that they want to demolish – polit. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
THE GOVERNMENT IS RIGHT TO JUNK SUPPLEMENTARY VOTE When I was a lad in Fallingbostel in the early 1970s we had over 50k troops in Germany alone and more than 20k in NI. As you will appreciate better than most our army is now too small to carry out any meaningful task for any extended period of time. A PRESIDENT WITHOUT PRECEDENT: WHICH RECORD WILL BIDEN Looks increasingly like the thing Biden will be known for in history is being the “we are not alone in the universe” president. When this many senior political officials are queuing up on TV to only barely stop short of saying it, it can’t be long before the President decides he may as well go the whole hog and etch his placein history.
DAVID_HERDSON
About Username david_herdson Joined March 2013 Visits 8,755 Last Active 1:25PM Roles Member Points 240 Posts 16,102 POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice ofRECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING 0 points. Most recent by Malmesbury 1:02PM. Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbe. 6.7K views 715 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fysics_Teacher 6:18AM. Supporting a better infrastructure is fine until it is your house that they want to demolish – polit. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
THE GOVERNMENT IS RIGHT TO JUNK SUPPLEMENTARY VOTE When I was a lad in Fallingbostel in the early 1970s we had over 50k troops in Germany alone and more than 20k in NI. As you will appreciate better than most our army is now too small to carry out any meaningful task for any extended period of time. A PRESIDENT WITHOUT PRECEDENT: WHICH RECORD WILL BIDEN Looks increasingly like the thing Biden will be known for in history is being the “we are not alone in the universe” president. When this many senior political officials are queuing up on TV to only barely stop short of saying it, it can’t be long before the President decides he may as well go the whole hog and etch his placein history.
DAVID_HERDSON
About Username david_herdson Joined March 2013 Visits 8,755 Last Active 1:25PM Roles Member Points 240 Posts 16,102 BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023. THE BETTING MARKETS ARE OVER-STATING ANDY BURNHAM’S 5 hours ago · Andy Burnham is riding high at the moment. The latest Ipsos MORI polling on who “has what it takes to be a good PM” had the Mayor of Greater Manchester with better net ratings than either BoJo or Sunak. He was on a net plus 11% with Sunak on a net plus 7% and Johnson on a net plus 2. Ladbrokes currently have former LAB MP and now Mayor of Greater Manchester as 7/2 favourite forFIGHTING COVID
I live in Bedford which over the past few weeks has been singled out as a COVID hotspot and each day, later in the afternoon, I almost always check out the latest data for the borough which is all on the excellent government COVID website.. One of the statistics I look at is the total number of deaths which is defined as “Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for THE BOUNDARY CHANGES No doubt everybody will be looking first for their own seats and the chart above shows the changes by region. Where I live, Bedford, there are no changes in a seat that was narrowly held by LAB a at GE2019 and was Tory target number one. LOCAL LOCKDOWNS BY STEALTH Most people are no longer interested in the rules. They're observed under sufferance in situations where they can't be easily avoided (notably where businesses are forced to keep asking us to wear gags,) but the Plague is over as far as most people - save for psychologically traumatised lockdown hermits, and a few poor buggers who genuinely can't have the vaccine - are concerned. THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
IN THE BETTING PUNTERS NOW RATE THE CHANCES OF A BORIS In the betting punters now rate the chances of a Boris 2021 exit at 25% – politicalbetting.comInevitably after the extraordinary manner in which Boris conducted himself at PMQs today there’s been an increase in speculation over when he will actually step aside. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE GE2019 A CON OVERALL MAJORITY IS For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcome – politicalbetting.comIn many ways it is quite extraordinary that on no occasion until this weekend general election in December 2019 has a Conservatives majority being the betting favourite for what will happen next time. LABOUR HAS A BIGGER PROBLEM IN SEEKING POWER THAN SCOTLAND Actually, the 50% was the average from a staff survey. Yes, we wereconsulted.
CHART OF THE DAY: WHAT HAPPENED IN THE BATLEY & SPEN From Gaza report The Israeli military has begun to warn over 4000 residents of Gaza City's premier Al Remal neighborhood to evacuate their towers ahead of a large strike wave and it is the first mass effort to clear a district during this escalation POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING 0 points. Most recent by Malmesbury 1:02PM. Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbe. 6.7K views 715 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fysics_Teacher 6:18AM. Supporting a better infrastructure is fine until it is your house that they want to demolish – polit.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? THE GOVERNMENT IS RIGHT TO JUNK SUPPLEMENTARY VOTE When I was a lad in Fallingbostel in the early 1970s we had over 50k troops in Germany alone and more than 20k in NI. As you will appreciate better than most our army is now too small to carry out any meaningful task for any extended period of time. THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE You don't scan for me. With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incrediblyanti-Labour.
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING 0 points. Most recent by Malmesbury 1:02PM. Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbe. 6.7K views 715 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fysics_Teacher 6:18AM. Supporting a better infrastructure is fine until it is your house that they want to demolish – polit.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? THE GOVERNMENT IS RIGHT TO JUNK SUPPLEMENTARY VOTE When I was a lad in Fallingbostel in the early 1970s we had over 50k troops in Germany alone and more than 20k in NI. As you will appreciate better than most our army is now too small to carry out any meaningful task for any extended period of time. THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE You don't scan for me. With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incrediblyanti-Labour.
FIGHTING COVID
I live in Bedford which over the past few weeks has been singled out as a COVID hotspot and each day, later in the afternoon, I almost always check out the latest data for the borough which is all on the excellent government COVID website.. One of the statistics I look at is the total number of deaths which is defined as “Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023.FAVOURED VOTERS
1 day ago · What’s the difference between bribing voters and fulfilling electoral promises to them? Outright bribery is now illegal but politicians still promise the earth and try to deliver. AN LD CHESHAM & AMERSHAM SHARE OF 40%+ WOULD SHAKE TORY 13 hours ago · Viewing this by-election through the prism of Hartlepool could be a mistake. While almost all the media focus has been on the July 1st Batley and Spen by-election there’s been hardly any coverage of the Tory defence in Chesham & Amersham where they are defending a 29.1% majority. THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
FRIENDS, COUNTRYMEN, LEND ME YOUR KEIRS, THIS IS GOING TO Seattle Times ($) COVID-19 death toll is more than double the official count, UW analysis suggests A new analysis from scientists at the University of Washington suggests 6.9 million people worldwide have died from COVID-19, more than double the official death toll. THE EXTRAORDINARY CHANGE IN JOHNSON/STARMER LEADER RATINGS The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks – politicalbetting.comI find it very difficult to explain such a huge change within 2-weeks even though that period did include the May 6th local elections. LET’S ADMIT IT: THE GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT IS INCOMPATIBLE Let’s admit it: the Good Friday Agreement is incompatible with Brexit – politicalbetting.com. No-one cares about Northern Ireland. Lots of people say they do of course but in reality, as long as bombs aren’t going off (or, at worst, are only going off in Derry or Strabane or the like), then it’s either left to get on by itself, an insoluble problem best left alone, or a political SIZE DOES MATTER IN HARTLEPOOL Size does matter in Hartlepool – politicalbetting.com. Ever since the Hartlepool by election has been called I’ve vacillated between a Tory gain and a easy Labour hold. If Richard Tice and the Brexit Party hadn’t stood in this seat in 2019 then this would have been a Tory gain at the 2019 general election so that is what I drove my belief ON THE YOUGOV/SURVATION SPLIT THE LATTER HAS A RECORD OF On the YouGov/Survation split the latter has a record of picking up moves to LAB better – politicalbetting.comWikipedia final GE2017polls
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that if POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by swing_voter May 31 General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. 5.2K views 471 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING 0 points. Most recent by Malmesbury 1:02PM. Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbe. 6.7K views 715 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fysics_Teacher 6:18AM. Supporting a better infrastructure is fine until it is your house that they want to demolish – polit.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that if POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by swing_voter May 31 General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. 5.2K views 471 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING 0 points. Most recent by Malmesbury 1:02PM. Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbe. 6.7K views 715 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fysics_Teacher 6:18AM. Supporting a better infrastructure is fine until it is your house that they want to demolish – polit.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. POLITICALBETTING.COM Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that ifFAVOURED VOTERS
1 day ago · What’s the difference between bribing voters and fulfilling electoral promises to them? Outright bribery is now illegal but politicians still promise the earth and try to deliver.FIGHTING COVID
1 day ago · I live in Bedford which over the past few weeks has been singled out as a COVID hotspot and each day, later in the afternoon, I almost always check out the latest data for the borough which is all on the excellent government COVID website.. One of the statistics I look at is the total death toll which is defined as “Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023. THE BOUNDARY CHANGES No doubt everybody will be looking first for their own seats and the chart above shows the changes by region. Where I live, Bedford, there are no changes in a seat that was narrowly held by LAB a at GE2019 and was Tory target number one. THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
NOT A GOOD DAILY MAIL FRONT PAGE TOMORROW FOR THE PM System Posts: 8,489. April 26 edited April 26 in General. Not a good Daily Mail front page tomorrow for the PM – politicalbetting.com. Increasingly over the past week or so it has been the Mail that appears to have the most negative coverage of Mr. Johnson. Above is the latest for tomorrow’s paper. Read the full story here. THE EXTRAORDINARY CHANGE IN JOHNSON/STARMER LEADER RATINGS The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks – politicalbetting.comI find it very difficult to explain such a huge change within 2-weeks even though that period did include the May 6th local elections. THE JOYS OF FIRST PAST THE POST FPT Presumably if @squareroot2 was an employer, they would have no problem with a supplier who bids for contracts, paying for a (potentially undeclared) significant personal benefit for one of their key employees with decision-making powers. None of his business, right? Which is obviously bollocks. In my previous employment, every 6 months or so I was required to do extensive anti-bribery WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE You don't scan for me. With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incrediblyanti-Labour.
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that if POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by swing_voter May 31 General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. 5.2K views 471 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING 0 points. Most recent by Malmesbury 1:02PM. Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbe. 6.7K views 715 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fysics_Teacher 6:18AM. Supporting a better infrastructure is fine until it is your house that they want to demolish – polit.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that if POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by swing_voter May 31 General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. 5.2K views 471 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING 0 points. Most recent by Malmesbury 1:02PM. Trump becoming an even stronger betting favourite for the WH2024 Republican nomination – politicalbe. 6.7K views 715 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fysics_Teacher 6:18AM. Supporting a better infrastructure is fine until it is your house that they want to demolish – polit.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election. POLITICALBETTING.COM Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that ifFAVOURED VOTERS
23 hours ago · What’s the difference between bribing voters and fulfilling electoral promises to them? Outright bribery is now illegal but politicians still promise the earth and try to deliver.FIGHTING COVID
1 day ago · I live in Bedford which over the past few weeks has been singled out as a COVID hotspot and each day, later in the afternoon, I almost always check out the latest data for the borough which is all on the excellent government COVID website.. One of the statistics I look at is the total death toll which is defined as “Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023. THE BOUNDARY CHANGES No doubt everybody will be looking first for their own seats and the chart above shows the changes by region. Where I live, Bedford, there are no changes in a seat that was narrowly held by LAB a at GE2019 and was Tory target number one. THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
NOT A GOOD DAILY MAIL FRONT PAGE TOMORROW FOR THE PM System Posts: 8,489. April 26 edited April 26 in General. Not a good Daily Mail front page tomorrow for the PM – politicalbetting.com. Increasingly over the past week or so it has been the Mail that appears to have the most negative coverage of Mr. Johnson. Above is the latest for tomorrow’s paper. Read the full story here. THE EXTRAORDINARY CHANGE IN JOHNSON/STARMER LEADER RATINGS The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks – politicalbetting.comI find it very difficult to explain such a huge change within 2-weeks even though that period did include the May 6th local elections. THE JOYS OF FIRST PAST THE POST FPT Presumably if @squareroot2 was an employer, they would have no problem with a supplier who bids for contracts, paying for a (potentially undeclared) significant personal benefit for one of their key employees with decision-making powers. None of his business, right? Which is obviously bollocks. In my previous employment, every 6 months or so I was required to do extensive anti-bribery WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE You don't scan for me. With your views on free movement I get completely why you'd vote Leave and then vote Tory to see it implemented. But what I don't understand, given your professed driver of concern for the material betterment of the low paid, is why you'd still now, with Brexit done, be pro-Tory and so incrediblyanti-Labour.
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice ofRECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by another_richard 7:50PM General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 5.9K views 534 comments. 0 points. Most recent by ydoethur 5:18PM General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –. 3.1K views304
POLITICALBETTING.COM Bascially if GE2019 had been fought on these boundaries then BoJo’s majority would have been between 10 and 20 seats larger. This is because, of course, the opposition parties would see a decline at the same level thus increasing the gap by double the Tory seat gain, These probably won’t come into effect until Q3 2023 thus increasing the speculation that there could be an autumn generalRECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
LESS THAN THREE MONTHS AGO 56% OF TORY MEMBERS IN A Less than three months ago 56% of Tory members in a CONHome poll said they backed Trump – politicalbetting.comThe above is from a ConservativeHome survey that was published four days before the American election on October 31st 2020 and shows overwhelming support for the incumbent who was seeking a second term. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. A PRESIDENT WITHOUT PRECEDENT: WHICH RECORD WILL BIDEN Looks increasingly like the thing Biden will be known for in history is being the “we are not alone in the universe” president. When this many senior political officials are queuing up on TV to only barely stop short of saying it, it can’t be long before the President decides he may as well go the whole hog and etch his placein history.
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice ofRECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by Pro_Rata May 31 General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 6.2K views 535 comments. 0 points. Most recent by MattW May 30 General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by another_richard 7:50PM General. On his wedding day Johnson sees rating hits on approval, competence, and likeability – politicalbett. 5.9K views 534 comments. 0 points. Most recent by ydoethur 5:18PM General. Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –. 3.1K views304
POLITICALBETTING.COM Bascially if GE2019 had been fought on these boundaries then BoJo’s majority would have been between 10 and 20 seats larger. This is because, of course, the opposition parties would see a decline at the same level thus increasing the gap by double the Tory seat gain, These probably won’t come into effect until Q3 2023 thus increasing the speculation that there could be an autumn generalRECENT DISCUSSIONS
The Jenny McGee departure from the NHS is a tricky one for BoJo – the man she nursed – politicalbett. 6.7K views 704 comments. 0 points. Most recent by Fishing May 20 General. In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting. 4.6K views 375 comments. PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
LESS THAN THREE MONTHS AGO 56% OF TORY MEMBERS IN A Less than three months ago 56% of Tory members in a CONHome poll said they backed Trump – politicalbetting.comThe above is from a ConservativeHome survey that was published four days before the American election on October 31st 2020 and shows overwhelming support for the incumbent who was seeking a second term. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. A PRESIDENT WITHOUT PRECEDENT: WHICH RECORD WILL BIDEN Looks increasingly like the thing Biden will be known for in history is being the “we are not alone in the universe” president. When this many senior political officials are queuing up on TV to only barely stop short of saying it, it can’t be long before the President decides he may as well go the whole hog and etch his placein history.
FAVOURED VOTERS
7 minutes ago · What’s the difference between bribing voters and fulfilling electoral promises to them? Outright bribery is now illegal but politicians still promise the earth and try to deliver. POLITICALBETTING.COM Bascially if GE2019 had been fought on these boundaries then BoJo’s majority would have been between 10 and 20 seats larger. This is because, of course, the opposition parties would see a decline at the same level thus increasing the gap by double the Tory seat gain, These probably won’t come into effect until Q3 2023 thus increasing the speculation that there could be an autumn general BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023.FIGHTING COVID
19 hours ago · I live in Bedford which over the past few weeks has been singled out as a COVID hotspot and each day, later in the afternoon, I almost always check out the latest data for the borough which is all on the excellent government COVID website.. One of the statistics I look at is the total death toll which is defined as “Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result forCOVID-19
ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM. THE BOUNDARY CHANGES 1 day ago · No doubt everybody will be looking first for their own seats and the chart above shows the changes by region. Where I live, Bedford, there are no changes in a seat that was narrowly held by LAB a at GE2019 and was Tory target number one. POLITICALBETTING.COM The LDs have a better than 6% chance of taking Chesham & Amersham. On the betting exchanges the LDs are currently rated as a 6% chance of winning the Chesham and Amersham by-election which takes place on June 17th. I think this is a value bet. The above rather cheeky Tweet by the party President, Mark Pack, reflects a degree of confidence that GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. Not making the promised June 21 lockdown end is going to be controversial – politicalbetting.com. The Boris vaccination poll “bounce” will evaporate unless those who’ve had both jabs start to see so. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO IN 2021: AN EXCITING BY-ELECTION March 7. Reasons why identity politics is stupid, #247: if Balls wins this seat for Labour, he should be appointed shadow Chancellor at the next available opportunity. However, because the current incumbent is a woman (and Balls isn't), optically that would be next to impossiblefor Starmer.
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. 6.6K views 711 comments. 0 points.ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
7.1K views 612 comments. 0 points. Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. UNAPPROVED THOUGHTS. THE GOVERNMENT AND FREE SPEECH Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech – politicalbetting.com. Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election.MIKESMITHSON
About Username MikeSmithson Joined March 2013 Visits 18,808 Last Active 3:57AM Roles Member, Administrator, Moderator Points 1,095Posts 6,636
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. 6.6K views 711 comments. 0 points.ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
7.1K views 612 comments. 0 points. Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. UNAPPROVED THOUGHTS. THE GOVERNMENT AND FREE SPEECH Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech – politicalbetting.com. Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election.MIKESMITHSON
About Username MikeSmithson Joined March 2013 Visits 18,808 Last Active 3:57AM Roles Member, Administrator, Moderator Points 1,095Posts 6,636
ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM. THE BOUNDARY CHANGES 23 hours ago · No doubt everybody will be looking first for their own seats and the chart above shows the changes by region. Where I live, Bedford, there are no changes in a seat that was narrowly held by LAB a at GE2019 and was Tory target number one. BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023. THE IPSOS-MORI ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX JUMPS TO ITS Maybe the weather and COVID trends are making us feel better? The net figure here is calculated by deducting the “get worse” total from the “will improve” and the chart shows how this has noved since1988.
BEST OF — POLITICALBETTING It is disturbing that Keir has not led in his honeymoon year. Lawyers, intellectuals, academics, journos all love Keir. But, he does not seem to have the folksy charm to connect with the voters --- as Bill Clinton or Tony Blair did. He comes across as cold, stilted, wooden. He is a male Theresa. So, the header is right.RECENT ACTIVITY
Welcome Aboard! Singapore top world ratings as the number 1 country for corporate governance.If the political classes spent more time focussing on anti-corruption measures rather than obsessions about 'democracy' and 'human rights' which are highly subjective issues the world would be much better.Opposing bribery and nepotism haveuniversal
THE CHANCELLOR’S CONTROVERSIAL LETTER TO CHESHAM AND Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses . The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that if GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. Not making the promised June 21 lockdown end is going to be controversial – politicalbetting.com. The Boris vaccination poll “bounce” will evaporate unless those who’ve had both jabs start to see so. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Howdy, Stranger! It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons! PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. 6.6K views 711 comments. 0 points.ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
7.1K views 612 comments. 0 points. Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. UNAPPROVED THOUGHTS. THE GOVERNMENT AND FREE SPEECH Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech – politicalbetting.com. Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election.MIKESMITHSON
About Username MikeSmithson Joined March 2013 Visits 18,808 Last Active 3:57AM Roles Member, Administrator, Moderator Points 1,095Posts 6,636
POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. 6.6K views 711 comments. 0 points.ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM.RECENT DISCUSSIONS
7.1K views 612 comments. 0 points. Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. UNAPPROVED THOUGHTS. THE GOVERNMENT AND FREE SPEECH Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech – politicalbetting.com. Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election.MIKESMITHSON
About Username MikeSmithson Joined March 2013 Visits 18,808 Last Active 3:57AM Roles Member, Administrator, Moderator Points 1,095Posts 6,636
WILL THE CONTROLS ALL BE LIFTED ON JUNE 21ST? NOW THERE’S There is little doubt that the big political story between now and June 21st when the final COVID controls are due to be lifted will be whether there will be a deferment. BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023.ALL CATEGORIES
All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM. THE IPSOS-MORI ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX JUMPS TO ITS Maybe the weather and COVID trends are making us feel better? The net figure here is calculated by deducting the “get worse” total from the “will improve” and the chart shows how this has noved since1988.
THE CHANCELLOR’S CONTROVERSIAL LETTER TO CHESHAM AND Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses . The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that if GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. Not making the promised June 21 lockdown end is going to be controversial – politicalbetting.com. The Boris vaccination poll “bounce” will evaporate unless those who’ve had both jabs start to see so. BEST OF — POLITICALBETTING It is disturbing that Keir has not led in his honeymoon year. Lawyers, intellectuals, academics, journos all love Keir. But, he does not seem to have the folksy charm to connect with the voters --- as Bill Clinton or Tony Blair did. He comes across as cold, stilted, wooden. He is a male Theresa. So, the header is right.RECENT ACTIVITY
Welcome Aboard! Singapore top world ratings as the number 1 country for corporate governance.If the political classes spent more time focussing on anti-corruption measures rather than obsessions about 'democracy' and 'human rights' which are highly subjective issues the world would be much better.Opposing bribery and nepotism haveuniversal
PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? SADIQ FIRST PREFERENCE Sadiq First Preference. gg28 Posts: 1. May 5 in General. Is anyone getting the sense Khan's first preference vote is going to tank. I get the sense people are moving more towards the outer candidates and putting Khan second, as a bit of a forgone conclusion? Some big prices out there for an under 39.9 first preference. 0. POLITICALBETTING.COM The web's premier resource for political betting. PB NIGHTHAWKS CAFE ON THE EVENING TRUMP SAID THAT HE’D BEEN TREATED WORSE THAN ABRAHAM LINCOLN – WHO, OF COURSE, WAS ASSASSINATEDMay 4th, 2020
We haven’t spent much time of late looking at some of the wacko things that Trump comes out with. The latest is an assertion that he has been treated worse than Abraham Lincoln. The obvious response isthat Lincoln
was murdered. What could be worse than that? There’s little doubt that COVID-19 has had an enormous impact on the WH2020 race with primaries cancelled or postponed and the Democrats having to put back their convention till August. The impact on the country has been enormous with getting on for 70k people losing their lives. It is hard to see Trump’s sometimes controversial handling as being anything other than the central issue.MIKE SMITHSON
Posted in Coronavirus,
Donald Trump
| 272 Comments
COVID-19: IT’S NOT YOUR FAULTMay 4th, 2020
The most seductive words in the English language are _it’s not yourfault_.
Finding someone else to blame is human nature. We all love to be told that some rank bajin is responsible for whatever ills us. We don’t have to take responsibility for ourselves, if we can only blamesomeone else.
This is why conspiracy theories thrive. Some shadowy figures were responsible and therefore we’re not to blame. The most successful people I know never blame others, even when it’s others’ fault. If they hire someone who turns out to be a disaster, they blame themselves for making a bad hiring decision, not the person who was a disaster. They – to put it simply – take responsibilityfor themselves.
This is why the “Wuhan virus lab” story is so beguiling. It’s not our fault we didn’t learn the lessons of SARS. It’s not our fault that we didn’t have reasonable stores of PPE equipment. It’s not our fault… it’s their fault. And even if they didn’t mean to do it, well, it’s their responsibility anyway. Now, I don’t know that the virus wasn’t designed in a Wuhan lab. It is, after all, almost impossible to prove a negative. But let’s start with the first and most important thing. IF THIS WERE TO BE A BIOLOGICAL WEAPON, IT WOULD BE AMONG THE MOSTUSELESS IN HISTORY.
The ideal biological weapon kills the young, while leaving the infirm alone. Or, failing that, kills them all at the same rate. Something which barely affects those of working age, while hammering the retired sounds like an ideal way to solve the developed world’s dependency ratio problems, rather than a weapon of warfare. Another thing: good biological weapons need to mutate rapidly. You want it to go from deadly to docile in five or six generations as less virulent mutations outcompete the more deadly ones. Otherwise, you’re going to end up killing yourself. The Coronavirus is a very slow mutating virus, which makes it a highly unlikely you’d want to make a weapon out of it. OK. HOW ABOUT THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO. AT THE LAB IN WUHAN, THEY WERE EXPERIMENTING WITH CORONAVIRUSES IN BATS, AND IT ESCAPED. Well, it’s possible. Occam’s Razor applies here. This states that of two explanations, the one which requires the fewest number of assumptions is more likely to be correct. More likely, that is, not certain. So let’s look at the assumptions that are needed here: – The Wuhan lab was investigating these kinds of viruses – There was a bat who had this kind of virus – Said bat escaped or was stolen, and this then made its way to awet market
All those things are possible. And yes, viruses do escape from labs. But at each level there are assumptions here. I know everyone says that the Wuhan lab was investigating coronaviruses. Was it? And if they were, did this involve injecting bats with them? Every level of this chain is possible, but nothing more. And yes it’s quite possible that possible * possible * possible equals what happened. But the alternative explanation is that it came in exactly the same way that SARS or MERS did. I.e. it made the jump from animal carrier to human, perhaps through one of the thousands of live bats sold at wet markets across China. That’s one small assumption versus quite a lot of rather big ones. It’s comforting to make this someone else’s fault. If you ask pretty much any human to choose one of two explanations for some misfortune that’s befallen them, they will choose the one which involves absolving themselves of blame. That’s human nature. But it’s important to guard against this. Seeing what you want to see because it absolves you of blame is a dangerous, dangerous game.ROBERT SMITHSON
Posted in Coronavirus| 572 Comments
AS WE START ANOTHER LOCKDOWN WEEK A MARF CARTOON, SOME SITE NEWS AND A BIG THANK YOU TO PBERSMay 4th, 2020
A big thank to Marf for the above drawing which I think is a great visual representation of the lockdown. Two weeks ago I reported here that the site’s main revenue sources, display advertising and affiliate income from bookmakers, had declined to almost a trickle and we were fast getting to a stage where my retirement pension was PB’s main revenue source. You responded brilliantly with more than 200 PBers making donations. Hopefully this will take us through this difficult patch. Also it has been heart-warming and very encouraging to find out how much PB isvalued.
I am pleased to report that a new site development is in the offing. An IPhone/Android version of the site is being worked upon which should make it much easier for those who follow PB on their mobiles. Hopefully this will also make the site more attractive to advertisers and provide longer term financial stability. This is just about the main technical development since PB started in March 2004.MIKE SMITHSON
Posted in Coalition
| 762 Comments
A KNIGHTHOOD FOR COLONEL TOM MOORE?May 3rd, 2020
During this pandemic one of the most uplifting moments has been the now promoted Colonel Tom Moore raising millions for the NHS at age of 99 now 100. He’s been an inspiration to us all as evidenced by the thirty million plus pounds raised and him becoming the oldest person to feature in a UK number one single. As noted above he’s been honoured with a promotion from captain to honorary colonel but I wonder if he’ll be awarded a knighthood. There’s certainly precedent, Ian Botham was awarded a knighthood for raising over ten million pounds for Leukemia research charities. Ladbrokes are offering 5/6 on Colonel Moore being knighted before the end of 2021. Normally I avoid these specials markets because they are terrible value (and some won’t pay out for decades) but given the desire to cheer up the nation I’m going to back the 5/6 on ithappening.
I’m fairly certain Boris Johnson and many others in the government and media will back Colonel Moore being knighted. With the Queen’s birthday honours due next month it is possible Colonel Moore might be honoured then, he more than deserves it.TSE
Posted in Betting
,
Coronavirus
| 646 Comments
JUMPING AT SHADOWS
May 3rd, 2020
April is the cruellest month. At least, that is what the authorities hope. The government has carefully signalled that it intends to begin a slow relaxation of the lockdown, if Britain continues to move out of its total eclipse by Covid-19 into a penumbral recuperation from the most ferocious aspects of its onslaught. The government has to wrestle with two conflicting risks when making its decision. If Britain comes out of lockdown too early, it might risk a resurgence of Covid-19. If it waits too long, the economic damage – already huge – would be needlessly made worse. Only a fool would envy them this responsibility. The evidence remains confused and far too little is known about this disease to be confident how any policy will play out. The government might make its decision carefully, on all available evidence, with the best available advice and still get this wrong. The chances are that it will. You can see the stresses of government on the point in the fifth test for lifting lockdown. Originally it was formulated as “confidence that any adjustments to the current measures would not risk a second peak in infections”. Then it was reformulated as “confidence that any adjustments to the current measures would not risk a second peak in infections which would overwhelm the NHS”. Put more bluntly, will the government hold off until it is confident that the death rate won’t increase, or will it let the death rate increase, so long as the NHS can keep operating? > _The government still seems to be working on the basis that it can > restore the British economy by decree. That seems unlikely. For the > British public are frightened. Polls show that the British public > are the least enthused by the idea of reopening the country before > the virus is contained – just 23% of Britons supported the > idea. 50% of Germans were open to the idea, as were 53% of> Italians. _
>
> _Britons are backing their words with their deeds. Roughly 20% of > children were eligible to remain in school as children of key > workers or with special educational needs. Fewer than 1% of > schoolchildren are in fact going to school. Parents are unwilling > to take any chances._>
> _Some people are no doubt champing at the bit to get back to > normal. Many others will be wary. Some will not be coming out of > self-imposed lockdown until they have sufficient confidence that > they are safe enough. Not everyone will stake their lives on the > reliability of this (or any) government’s judgement. The > optimists would have you believe that you have nothing to fear but > fear itself. This is untrue. A slow lingering death by drowning in > your own body fluids seems like plenty to fear to me._>
> _This has both short and medium term consequences. Even if Covid-19 > is quelled by social distancing measures, far fewer will be wanting > to rush back on crowded trains into bustling metropolises, far fewer > will be wanting to eat out in busy restaurants and drink in packed > bars, coughing companions in opera houses and theatres will be still > more unpopular, the buzz of a crowd at a football match will feel > threatening to many rather than unmissable, the crush of gigs will > be seen as high-risk activities._>
> _(We are all going to become more conscious of rental costs. For > example, when we eat out, we will find ourselves paying much more > for the square footage around the table. Many will be happy to pay > for the feeling of health security if the experience in the > restaurant is of high enough quality. This is going to make the > experience of going to restaurants much more of a luxury than it > previously was.)_ Providers of in-person social entertainment and recreation are facing carnage. Even if many are willing to return to their previous social habits, many will not be. The loss of trade will be substantial for most. Only the strongest will survive. Even they will need to belucky.
What will those people who fear social interactions want to do instead? Well, I suggest they will prefer not to travel too far from their homes, they will prefer to live, shop and work in smaller towns rather than the very biggest cities, they will prefer to work from home if they conveniently can and they will prefer to socialise privately in small groups. They will consume their entertainmentstill more online.
I recognise that many will not have a say in the matter, at least so far as their work is concerned. A big slab of the economy relates to those who have to come into their workplace. Such workers will need to get past their personal preferences. (If you’re gung-ho to end the lockdown, consider carefully how you propose to tell such workers that they have to go to work even if they feel unsafe and even if there is a substantial risk that they could catch Covid-19. It’s not the most comfortable communication for a government to issue, isit?)
Many employees, however, will have agency about how and where they work. And at that margin, we can expect to see a substantial move for some time away from previous working practices. That margin will be more than enough to affect the viability of the businesses that service such employees. This means that the biggest cities, and especially London, are likely to recover more slowly than the commuter towns around it. Within the largest cities, the suburbs are likely to recover more quickly than the centre. All of this would be in the short term a complete inversion of long term trends. How enduring might those trends be? That for now is wholly unclear. Much will depend on how long term a threat Covid-19 remains, and how entrenched new behaviours become. It would, however, be darkly ironic if, just at the moment that every politician is talking of the crisis that towns are facing, the country is instead at the start of a period of inner city decay.ALASTAIR MEEKS
Posted in Coronavirus,
Economy
| 529 Comments
WE’RE GOING THROUGH AN ODD PERIOD IN THE LEADER RATINGS – BOTH THE PM AND STARMER ARE POSITIVE ACROSS THE BOARDMay 2nd, 2020
_Wikipedia
_
WHICH WILL BE FIRST TO GO NEGATIVE? As regular PBers will know I am a great fan of leader ratings as to pointers to political outcomes. At the last election in December Labour was always doomed while Corbyn struggled to get out of the worst set of ratings that any opposition leader has ever seen. Now his successor is going through his honeymoon and is positive ratings which are far in excess what Corbyn achieved in his five and a half years in the job. But there are still a huge number of don’t knows on Starmer and it’s how they split in the coming months that will determine whether he will continue to stay in the green. Johnson’s figures are extremely good and perhaps an indication that when the nation is going through a crisis and everybody’s having to do their bit there is a natural inclination to support the current regime. At the moment things look to be going really well. If I come up as I expect, that is an Opinium poll tonight then there should be another set of Johnson and starmer numbers. I’d expect noth to be experiencing quite good positives.MIKE SMITHSON
Posted in Leader approval ratings| 342 Comments
NO, DON’T LOOK TO A NON-TRUMP/BIDEN WINNERMay 2nd, 2020
BIDEN IN PARTICULAR IS GREAT ODDS AGAINST LUDICROUSLY SHORT DEMALTERNATIVES
Unusual things happen. Fringe scenarios occur and outsiders find ways to win races they aren’t even in. Even so, for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden to be odds against to win the 2020 US presidential election when both are their party’s nominee-elect is pretty extraordinary. True, Trump is only just odds-against on the Betfair exchange, at 2.08 to back but Biden is right out at 2.42 at the time of writing. Those odds are also, as usual, a little longer than you’ll get at fixed-odds prices where Trump is usually just the other side of evens, at 10/11, but then you have to factor in bookies’ margins there. On the exchange, where prices most closely reflects punters’ opinions in heavily-traded markets, the odds imply that there’s about a 9% chance that neither candidate will win the election – which looksridiculous to me.
Both candidates have weaknesses, to be sure, but to argue against their nomination now is months after the event. Trump sealed his when the Republican senators backed him in the impeachment trial; Biden remains technically short of sealing victory but as he’s forced all other rivals from the field, that’s only a formality. The only way either man is replaced now is if they withdraw voluntarily, which essentially means either a health issue or a political scandal so large it renders their candidature impossible. We can certainly rule that second option out for Trump, for whom nothing seems unacceptable behaviour to his party, and we can limit it to an extremely low chance for Biden, who’s been in the public eye for decades and for whom you’d assume that if there were some great scandal, it would be known of by now. Health, on the other hand, is a little bit more of an issue. Both men are well into their seventies – Biden much closer to eighty – and Trump is overweight, and there’s a pandemic swirling that is particularly harsh towards those in that age group. It’s far from impossible to see circumstances in which one or the other might be replaced. That said, for the bet to pay out, not only would that candidate have to be replaced but they’d have to win. That’d be a tough ask. We can reasonably assume that Pence would step in for Trump, were that the vacancy, not least because if he had to replace him as candidate then he’d very likely have to replace him as president or acting president too – and it’d be very hard for the GOP not to select a sitting president when there’s no clear alternative and there’ve been no primaries. Pence is currently 66/1 with bookies and almost 100/1 on Betfair. Those odds at least make some sense. (Nikki Haley is the next-priced Republican at 250/1 which I wouldn’t be backing even at those odds but you can see the caseand the route).
It’s on the other side of the election that I think the market has it badly wrong. For a start, the Democrats as a whole should be favourites to win, rather than neck-and-neck with the GOP. It’s true that first-term incumbents seeking re-election rarely lose – only Ford, Carter and GHW Bush have done so since Hoover in 1932 (and Ford and Carter might be explained as Watergate exceptions: the former both unelected and tainted by his pardon of Nixon, and the latter and unnatural winner against an unusually weak president). Even so, Trump’s handling of Covid-19 has provided his opponents with gift-wrapped attack material, and the US economy is tanking appallingly. To put it into a British context, the 30 million new jobless claims over the last six weeks is the equivalent of around 6 million people signing on in Britain. That millions per week are still signing on, weeks after the lockdown began, suggests that these redundancies are not a direct reaction to the infection-protection measures but are being forced by businesses that previously chose not to go down that path, presumably under financial duress. Those sort of strains will not release themselves quickly once the government-mandated economic interruption ends. GIVEN THAT TRUMP ONLY JUST WON IN 2016, IS BEHIND THE POLLS BOTH NATIONALLY AND IN THE KEY STATES (AND BEHIND WHERE HE WAS WHEN HE WON), HAS A VERY HARD CEILING TO HIS SUPPORT, AND EVENTS ARE RUNNING AGAINST HIM, THE FUNDAMENTALS POINT TO A DEMOCRAT WIN. That Biden is around 40% longer than his party is absurd. His party has rallied round him and there are only six months to go. Even if there were cause to rethink his nomination, there’s no clear good candidate. Hillary Clinton is second-favourite for the nomination, at 15/1 (all odds quoted here from the Betfair exchange), which is about as bad a bet as I’ve seen. She lost an election she should have won and nearly lost a nomination she should have won. She’s too much scandal and history around her and, as a non-candidate this time, alack of mandate.
In fact the shortest-priced odds for the nomination for anyone who did run against Biden is Bernie Sanders, at 99/1 – which is probably about right. He might not really be a Democrat and he might well be easy meat for Trump but he does at least have a lot of votes in the bag. That he is behind Michelle Obama (64/1) is testament to the market not being altogether all there. Sanders is also behind Andrew Cuomo (35/1), which is still mispriced but a little more sensible. If the Democrat convention did need to find an alternative candidate, Cuomo is someone with a high profile whose Covid-19 response stands in marked contrast to Trump’s. Still, his odds look to me to be still the best part of an order of magnitudeout.
By contrast, Gretchen Whitmer is among the 999/1 outsiders. That strikes me not only as an extraordinary disparity with Cuomo but actually possessing a degree of value if you do fancy a Hail Marypunt.
But all this skirts around the main point: Biden’s odds are way out of kilter with his party’s, which are themselves long. I reckon he’s a steal at these prices.DAVID HERDSON
Posted in America
,
Betting
| 732 Comments
AND TO TAKE YOU GENTLY INTO THE WEEKEND (REMEMBER THOSE?) THE PBNIGHTHAWKS CAFE
May 1st, 2020
The lockdown continues with no real idea when this is going to come to an end. So while it remains the PB Nighthawks cafe will continue – a place to interact without worrying about physical differences.MIKE SMITHSON
Posted in PB NightHawks Cafe| 205 Comments
Previous Entries
Next Page »
ARCHIVES
* May 2020
* April 2020
* March 2020
* February 2020
* January 2020
* December 2019
* November 2019
* October 2019
* September 2019
* August 2019
* July 2019
* June 2019
* May 2019
* April 2019
* March 2019
* February 2019
* January 2019
* December 2018
* November 2018
* October 2018
* September 2018
* August 2018
* July 2018
* June 2018
* May 2018
* April 2018
* March 2018
* February 2018
* January 2018
* December 2017
* November 2017
* October 2017
* September 2017
* August 2017
* July 2017
* June 2017
* May 2017
* April 2017
* March 2017
* February 2017
* January 2017
* December 2016
* November 2016
* October 2016
* September 2016
* August 2016
* July 2016
* June 2016
* May 2016
* April 2016
* March 2016
* February 2016
* January 2016
* December 2015
* November 2015
* October 2015
* September 2015
* August 2015
* July 2015
* June 2015
* May 2015
* April 2015
* March 2015
* February 2015
* January 2015
* December 2014
* November 2014
* October 2014
* September 2014
* August 2014
* July 2014
* June 2014
* May 2014
* April 2014
* March 2014
* February 2014
* January 2014
* December 2013
* November 2013
* October 2013
* September 2013
* August 2013
* July 2013
* June 2013
* May 2013
* April 2013
* March 2013
* February 2013
* January 2013
* December 2012
* November 2012
* October 2012
* September 2012
* August 2012
* July 2012
* June 2012
* May 2012
* April 2012
* March 2012
* February 2012
* January 2012
* December 2011
* November 2011
* October 2011
* September 2011
* August 2011
* July 2011
* June 2011
* May 2011
* April 2011
* March 2011
* February 2011
* January 2011
* December 2010
* November 2010
* October 2010
* September 2010
* August 2010
* July 2010
* June 2010
* May 2010
* April 2010
* March 2010
* February 2010
* January 2010
* December 2009
* November 2009
* October 2009
* September 2009
* August 2009
* July 2009
* June 2009
* May 2009
* April 2009
* March 2009
* February 2009
* January 2009
* December 2008
* November 2008
* October 2008
* September 2008
* August 2008
* July 2008
* June 2008
* May 2008
* April 2008
* March 2008
* February 2008
* January 2008
* December 2007
* November 2007
* October 2007
* September 2007
* August 2007
* July 2007
* June 2007
* May 2007
* April 2007
* March 2007
* February 2007
* January 2007
* December 2006
* November 2006
* October 2006
* September 2006
* August 2006
* July 2006
* June 2006
* May 2006
* April 2006
* March 2006
* February 2006
* January 2006
* December 2005
* November 2005
* October 2005
* September 2005
* August 2005
* July 2005
* June 2005
* May 2005
* April 2005
* March 2005
* February 2005
* January 2005
* December 2004
* November 2004
* October 2004
* September 2004
* August 2004
* July 2004
* June 2004
* May 2004
* April 2004
* March 2004
LINKS
2CONTACT PB*****
Antifrank blog
Archbishop Cranmer
Best betting sites
bestbettingsitesuk.ukBET 365
BetFred Promotion Codebetting sites
Betting sites
bettingwebsites.org
Casino Sites
Casino Sites
Free Bets
freebetpromocode.netFunslots.uk
Guido's Blog
http://www.funslots.uk/ https://rainbowriches.bet/John Rentoul - Indy
Just Auto Insurance
Just Betting Offers
Just Insurance
Labour Uncut
LabourHome
LabourList
LADBROKES POLITICS BETTING Ladbrokes Promo CodeLeft Foot Forward
LibDem Voice
Liberal Vision
Lobbydog
Martin Baxter's ELECTORAL CALCULUSMobile Casinos
New betting sites
New Casinos 2019
NewBookmakers.uk
Nick Cohen
Online betting sitesOnline Bookies
PADDY POWER
PB
POLITICALBETTING - CHANNEL 2 Politicalbetting Channel 2Slot sites
SPORTING INDEX
The Election Game
The Political Bookie blog The Virtual Stoa (Chris Brooke)UK Betting Sites
UK Election database 1992-2005UK elections 1885 -
UK POLITICAL MARKETS - BEST PRICES UK Westminster by electionsVICTOR CHANDLER
WILLIAM HILL POLITICSYouGov poll archive
META
* Log in
politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress with "Neat! " theme. Entries (RSS)and Comments
(RSS)
.
Details
Copyright © 2024 ArchiveBay.com. All rights reserved. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | DMCA | 2021 | Feedback | Advertising | RSS 2.0