POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.

RECENT DISCUSSIONS

Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. 6.6K views 711 comments. 0 points.

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All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM.

RECENT DISCUSSIONS

7.1K views 612 comments. 0 points. Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. UNAPPROVED THOUGHTS. THE GOVERNMENT AND FREE SPEECH Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech – politicalbetting.com. Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election.

MIKESMITHSON

About Username MikeSmithson Joined March 2013 Visits 18,808 Last Active 3:57AM Roles Member, Administrator, Moderator Points 1,095

Posts 6,636

POLITICALBETTING.COM After Labour’s debacle in Hartlepool, the assumption on the betting markets is that the Tories will find it easy to overhaul be 3.5k majority that Labour had at GE2019. Currently, the Tories are rated as a 66% chance. What could make a difference here is the choice of POLITICALBETTING.COM A big question after this week is whether Johnson’s leader ratings are moving up or down. We have now had the first leader ratings on the PM following the seven hour Cummings Commons committee appearance on Wednesday. Number Cruncher Politics finds 42% saying they are satisfied with Johnson and 45% dissatisfied.

RECENT DISCUSSIONS

Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. 6.6K views 711 comments. 0 points.

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All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM.

RECENT DISCUSSIONS

7.1K views 612 comments. 0 points. Most recent by DenzilofArabia May 14 General. In the betting punters make it a 59% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of next year – p. 6.5K views 647 comments. 0 points. Most recent by squareroot2 May 13 General. Boris, Boris vote supressor – politicalbetting.com. GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING Most recent by kinabalu May 11. For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom. 8.3K views 905 comments. 0 points. Most recent by oggologi May 10. After a disappointing set of results for LAB one figure appears to have bucked the trend – political. MALCOLMG — POLITICALBETTING She has been invisible for those 9 years, totally invisible and now is risable as Trade Minister, trumpeting that she got a deal with Faroes , resigned some existing deals and to top it all boasting about adding cheese selling to Japan , when they hardly eat cheese and UK only get to table after EU quota is used. UNAPPROVED THOUGHTS. THE GOVERNMENT AND FREE SPEECH Unapproved thoughts. The government and free speech – politicalbetting.com. Times change. And so does received wisdom. Fewer than 20 years ago, Boris Johnson saw no reason in principle to differentiate between gay marriage and consecrating a union between three men and a dog. This week, he clambered on the gay rights bandwagon, welcoming an WHY THE TORIES HAVE LESS THAN A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE Lib Dems need a informal pact with Labour and the Greens, if they are to have a serious chance of taking Amersham & Chesham. Keir would agree this, too, but only if he realised that it shows a determination to actually win the next election.

MIKESMITHSON

About Username MikeSmithson Joined March 2013 Visits 18,808 Last Active 3:57AM Roles Member, Administrator, Moderator Points 1,095

Posts 6,636

WILL THE CONTROLS ALL BE LIFTED ON JUNE 21ST? NOW THERE’S There is little doubt that the big political story between now and June 21st when the final COVID controls are due to be lifted will be whether there will be a deferment. BY FAR THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF MPS TODAY Later on today every single MP will get a special letter directed to them alone on what is planned to happen to their seats in the new boundaries that will take effect during 2023.

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All Categories. Category List. Expand for more options. General. General discussions. 4.6K discussions 3.4M comments Most recent: As UK COVID deaths drop to zero the front page of tomorrow’s Daily Mail – politicalbetting.com by Pagan2 1:43AM. THE IPSOS-MORI ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX JUMPS TO ITS Maybe the weather and COVID trends are making us feel better? The net figure here is calculated by deducting the “get worse” total from the “will improve” and the chart shows how this has noved since

1988.

THE CHANCELLOR’S CONTROVERSIAL LETTER TO CHESHAM AND Rishi seems to threaten that the area will suffer financially if the Tory loses . The above is a copy of a letter from Rishi Sunak that has been sent to voters in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and the controversial part is the strapline at the top – “To recover from the pandemic Chesham and Amersham needs an MP who can work with me” It is being argued that Sunak is saying that if GENERAL — POLITICALBETTING General. The Indy publishes LD data suggesting that Chesham & Amersham could be competitive – politicalbettin. Not making the promised June 21 lockdown end is going to be controversial – politicalbetting.com. The Boris vaccination poll “bounce” will evaporate unless those who’ve had both jabs start to see so. BEST OF — POLITICALBETTING It is disturbing that Keir has not led in his honeymoon year. Lawyers, intellectuals, academics, journos all love Keir. But, he does not seem to have the folksy charm to connect with the voters --- as Bill Clinton or Tony Blair did. He comes across as cold, stilted, wooden. He is a male Theresa. So, the header is right.

RECENT ACTIVITY

Welcome Aboard! Singapore top world ratings as the number 1 country for corporate governance.If the political classes spent more time focussing on anti-corruption measures rather than obsessions about 'democracy' and 'human rights' which are highly subjective issues the world would be much better.Opposing bribery and nepotism have

universal

PUBLISH AND BE DAMNED? Publish and be Damned? – politicalbetting.com. 2 reports into events long ago: 34 and 26 years. The main protagonists are dead. Should anyone care, as the Today programme put it somewhat indelicately, about one murder so very long ago (Daniel Morgan)? SADIQ FIRST PREFERENCE Sadiq First Preference. gg28 Posts: 1. May 5 in General. Is anyone getting the sense Khan's first preference vote is going to tank. I get the sense people are moving more towards the outer candidates and putting Khan second, as a bit of a forgone conclusion? Some big prices out there for an under 39.9 first preference. 0. POLITICALBETTING.COM The web's premier resource for political betting. TODAY SEES THE WORST SET OF FRONT PAGES FOR THE GOVERNMENT SINCE THE

CRISIS BEGAN

April 2nd, 2020

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MINISTERS WILL GET HAMMERED WHILE THERE’S A SHORTFALL IN TESTING After a period when the government has been generally getting positive media coverage for its fight against the coronavirus all has changed this morning as can be seen. The biggest issue is the amount of testing going on even for NHS staff and others on the front-line. This is far short of expectations of what we had been led to expect. When the Mail and the Mirror are both attacking on the same issue then any government has problems. The country is being asked to take extraordinary steps to curb the spread of the disease and the least voters are looking for is a government appears to be effective. It is not helped by both PM Johnson and HealthSec Hancock being out of the picture because they have contracted the virus. This is exacerbated by previous statements about the likely level of testing which aren’t being reached. This comes on the day that voting in Labour’s interminable leadership contest comes to an end and we are now just a couple of sleeps away from Starmer becoming the Opposition Leader.

MIKE SMITHSON

Posted in Boris

,

Coronavirus

| 385 Comments

WELCOME TO THE WEDNESDAY PB NIGHTHAWKS

April 1st, 2020

This is the place for the best late night political conversation. Everything continues to be dominated by the coronavirus pandemic with lockdowns in force in many countries throughout the world. Today’s latest UK death toll figures were the highest yet and we can expect

that to continue.

With so much of the economy closed down we are starting to see a debate on whether we should just accept the level of deaths and get back to normal. For the longer this goes on the greater the economic damage. That’s a big call but it is hard to see any change in the

short term.

MIKE SMITHSON

Posted in PB NightHawks Cafe

| 304 Comments

TAKING LIBERTIES

April 1st, 2020

One of the most enjoyable aspects of investigations is listening to miscreants’ excuses for their bad behaviour. The same ones came up regularly, so much so that interviews would have been much quicker if we’d had a poster on the wall of the excuses so they could just have pointed and said: “_6_” with a bit of “_9_”. The two most common, usually presented with the passive-aggressive mulishness of schoolboys, were: “_Where does it say I can’t do that?” _and “_Show me where it says that I have to do that._” It would be disappointing if the police do not have a similar list of reasons for why people are not complying with the rules restricting movement. When it comes to regulation of human behaviour, it is impossible for any law or procedure to list all the possible permutations of actions to be permitted or prohibited. No wonder people try to find ingenious ways to justify what they want to do. Hence the need for judgment, common-sense and reasonableness. Or – if these are too hard for people or officials to understand – they could all be crudely summarised in the injunction: _“Don’t take the p*ss._” Or, more politely: “_Don’t take liberties.”_ Ah yes. Liberties. It may seem to some like unnecessary frivolity to be talking about these at such a time. But it isn’t. We are a state governed by laws, virus or no, just as we were a state governed by laws during wartime. We are not a state where simply because one man – the PM – says or advises something it thereby becomes the law. Advice is not the same as law. This is not a distinction without a difference. Public officials are not there to do the bidding of any individual, however mighty. They are there to enforce the laws on behalf of all of us. A virus is not an excuse or reason for any official to act unlawfully.  The government has the inestimable advantage of being able to pass laws very quickly to deal with this emergency. It has given public officials considerable powers to restrict what people can do. Its officials should not abuse that advantage by claiming powers they do not have. “_A free Government interferes with nothing except what it must.” _Those words were written in 1873. The government has interfered with our freedoms for the best of intentions: to minimise to the extent possible the amount of social contact between people and, thereby, the virus’s transmission so as to give everyone, particularly the most vulnerable, the best chance of surviving it. Those who ignore the rules – whether because they are inconvenient or because they think they are not at risk or because they don’t care or don’t understand or because they simply cannot bear to be inside any longer or for any other reason at all – are not simply being selfish or careless or unthinking. They are risking not just their own health (a risk they can take) but the health of others (not their decision to take). The purpose of these rules – the need to keep people apart – matters. Ignoring that – and the generally sensible advice and guidance about how to do so (such as the steps taken by supermarkets and others) – may not be unlawful but it is stupid. If too many people behave stupidly or selfishly, there is every likelihood of even more restrictive measures being imposed. So much for the obligations on citizens. What of government? Its communications strategy has been woeful – particularly in relation to its advice. Where that has differed from the law it has led to confusion, not just in the public but amongst officials. It is too reactive to individual media stories or seems to change according to individual Ministers’ views. Health officials should set out the health advice. Ministers should set out what the rules say. Clear communication about their purpose and what is sensible is necessary. But so too is clear communication to public officials about what is lawful, what is not and the importance of using the powers they have lawfully and with intelligent discretion. If clarification is needed that should be agreed and communicated to all relevant departments so that all are speaking with one voice. What it says should be accurate

and consistent.

And what of officials, the police above all? The rules are clear and

can be found here.

Section 6 deals

with restrictions on movement.  Four things are worth noting: 1. There is no reference to movement outside the home needing to be “_essential_”. Indeed the word “_essential_” features not at all._ There_ must be a “_reasonable excuse_”. What is “_reasonable_” is dependent on circumstances. 2. The list of reasonable excuses is not exhaustive. There may be other reasons which would make it reasonable for someone to leave

their home.

3. How one exercises, where one goes to exercise or how often one can do so are not set out. Similarly, with shopping or with visiting a vulnerable person or doing charitable work or any of the other

activities listed.

4. The rules make no reference to government guidance at all. It makes sense for people to take account of government guidance – especially health advice, and understand their purpose. Officials can point to it. But the police should not be misleading people into thinking that the rules and government guidance are one and the same. They are not. The government could have made them the same. It did not. And yet the official police guidance

is

misleading when it says that people may only leave home for the reasons listed in government guidance or when it talks about people committing an offence if they do not have a “_valid_” reason for

being outside.

Pedantic?  Possibly – but we are talking about people’s freedoms here. The police are stating that a  breach may lead to fines and criminal convictions but misleading people about what the offence is. That is alarming. The language in the rules is clear. There is no reason for the police to use different language or to put their own spin on it. It is not for the police to decide that the restrictions should be something other than what Parliament has decided. Civilians may not know the precise language in the rules. They will defer to authority, trust them even to know what they are doing, or be scared of officials in uniforms. The police should not abuse that trust or fear or their powers. Why?  Well, apart from the obvious reason, it is likely to prove counter-productive. If people feel that the police are going too far then they will likely be less willing to do what is necessary. That increases rather than reduces the health risk. And there is another longer-term reason: the police’s standing with the public is not high. A recent report

by

HMICFRS stated that the public has lost faith, having “_rumbled_” that the police are unable to investigate most crimes. While the emergency lasts, there will be public support for those working hard to protect it. But that support risks being lost if public officials behave like omnipotent officious busybodies, claiming powers they do not have, especially if the restrictions have to last a long time, as

seems likely.

_Trust in government is a precious commodity, especially at a time when so many are fearful. The government has limited our freedoms because, for this emergency, it must. It will not achieve what it is trying to do if people ignore its advice and think only of themselves nor if those acting in its name overreach and lose the public’s trust. We really all are in this together_.

CYCLEFREE

Posted in Coronavirus

| 586 Comments

GUEST SLOT FROM STOCKY: WHY IT SHOULD BE MADE CLEAR THAT LOCKDOWN WILL NOT EXTEND PAST 12 WEEKS

April 1st, 2020

AN EXTREME UTILITARIANISM STALKS THE LAND My daughter has started learning about philosophy. She is particularly enamoured with a thought experiment known as The Trolley Problem. The Trolley Problem invites us to either _let things be_ with dire consequences or _take action_ by pulling a lever and producing less dire consequences. Most people see this as a no-brainer: _take action,

pull the lever_.

This choice supposedly outs most people as utilitarians; the right thing to do is to maximise utility, meaning maximising aggregate happiness/minimising suffering. I wrote “supposedly” because philosophers go on to tinker with the thought experiment, the end result being that, for many, utilitarianism is exposed as being a thin veneer, an understandable knee-jerk reaction to an awful problem with

no good solution.

Virtue-ethics portrays a more realistic picture of human nature – the right thing to do is a question of motivation not of consequences. Deciding not to pull the lever does not necessarily mean that our morality is at fault. NOW IMAGINE THESE TWO CHOICES: CHOICE ONE: Many, many dying (_let things be)_ CHOICE TWO: Many (though fewer) dying plus economic catastrophe plus an extreme loss of freedom for everyone_ (take action, pull the

lever)_

WHICH WOULD YOU CHOOSE? Yes folks, we are living a true-life iteration of The Trolley Problem and, sure enough, the choice that our country has chosen is Choice

Two.

But wait, let`s tinker – what if the negative effects of economic catastrophe and loss of freedom haven’t been sufficiently understood or accounted for? I argue that they have not. Some (maybe secretly) already recognise this (I see it in a few PB.com posts and “feel” it in some others when left unsaid). Let`s fast-forward to the point when lockdown has been in force for 12 weeks.  The daily death toll is well off its peak but is still substantial. The weather is warmer. People are restless and do not want to be dog-kennelled for a day longer, the novelty having worn off weeks ago. They want to go to the pub, eat out, visit parents. They want to go on holiday (at least an inexpensive one). Children need to go back to school. Adults need to go back to work. Some companies have gone to the wall, others will not be in a position to operate with as many employees as before. The stock market is still on its knees. Perhaps suicide among otherwise healthy people is running at an

all-time high.

In short, the astonishing harm that lockdown is doing to the country will have revealed itself more fully than now. Support for its continuance will dwindle, or at least be limited to the lockdown of vulnerable people only. The dynamics of our true-life trolley problem will have changed, the scales re-loaded. Removing lockdown and getting back our lives, our freedoms, our hopes and mitigating further economic degradation will be more fully in the equation. I`ve argued against the lockdown policy from the start. I`m not saying that this is just the flu – on the contrary Covid-19 is an extremely serious global pandemic – but I am saying that it is has been parlayed into economic and loss of liberty disasters that are truly catastrophic in so many ways. We didn`t harden our hearts when we needed to. We failed to accept the near inevitability that almost all of us will become infected with Covid-19 at some point and that 0.5-1% of those that do will die. We ducked that one and in doing so we pulled the lever and made health and the NHS the-only-thing-that-matters. Why not anticipate the re-loading of the trolley problem scales? Let`s agree not to pull the lever a second time. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD MAKE IT CLEAR THAT LOCKDOWN WILL NOT EXTEND PAST 12 WEEKS. At least then we will know when we will get our lives back and we can hope again. My daughter disagrees with me. But she`ll come round.

STOCKY

Posted in Coronavirus

| 897 Comments

WE MIGHT ALL BE CONFINED TO OUR HOMES BUT THE PB NIGHTHAWK CAFE IS

OPEN

March 31st, 2020

THE BEST PLACE FOR LATE NIGHT POLITICAL CONVESATION Clearly the fight against the coronavirus continues to dominate and looks set to do so for weeks if not months. There are so many factors and the increasing death toll in the UK with the knowledge that it will go much higher must be seriously worrying for ministers. What are your thoughts? Even if you have never posted on PB before you will be most welcome.

Have a good night.

MIKE SMITHSON

Posted in PB NightHawks Cafe

| 265 Comments

UK CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL UP 381 IN A SINGLE DAY – THE WORST YET

March 31st, 2020

This had been widely predicted and, indeed, follows the pattern or some other countries but even so the scale of what is happening comes as something of a shock. The forecasts earlier in the week of the eventual UK death total being 20k don’t now look exaggerated. One thing is for sure the more old people are losing their lives the more people are taking note of the government warnings. Quite where this will end is hard to say but the growing toll certainly adds to the fear in the vulnerable groups.

MIKE SMITHSON

Posted in Coalition

| 422 Comments

EVER SINCE THE FIRST LAB LEADERSHIP YOUGOV POLL CAME OUT THE RESULT HAS NEVER REALLY BEEN IN DOUBT

March 31st, 2020

WHAT THE POLLS WERE SHOWING FOR THE FINAL PREFERENCES Ever since that first YouGov labour leadership poll come out at the start of the year there has never been any real question that the next LAB leader would be the former DPP, Sir Keir Starmer. His margin in that first poll came as quite a shock it will be recalled, because the assumption was that at the candidate favoured by the current leadership, Rebecca long Bailey, would secure the backing of the same groups in the party that were behind Corbyn’s 2015 and 2016 leadership elections. That didn’t happen and all the indications were that many Momentum members were not going with with long RLB but were supporting Starmer. The detail from several of the polls indicated that the overwhelming issue for large numbers of those taking part in the election was which candidate would most likely lead the party to victory at the next

general election.

It should be noted in the polling list above that the first Survation poll used a very different sampling approach than the one in the firm’s February survey. In many ways this contest was decided on December 12th in the North West Durham parliamentary constituency where the then favoured contender of the Corbynistas, Laura Pidcock, lost her 18.3% majority to the the Tories. Without Pidcock there was no obvious figure to lead for left other than RLB. Looking back over the campaign Long Bailey has done better than many expected and has improved markedly, The big problem is that she has faced Starmer who is a very different proposition having entered politics already a Knight and having been in the high-profile role of director of public prosecutions. He was a big beast right from the

start.

A big interest for me when the results are announced on Saturday morning will be how good the pollsters were and will YouGov maintained its incredible record since of of getting right every membership leadership of every party. YouGov’s biggest failure, if that is the right term to use, was actually last July with the CON leadership contest when the final lead it was reporting for Boris was 15% higher than that which he actually

achieved.

MIKE SMITHSON

Posted in Coalition

| 915 Comments

AND NOW AFTER FIVE YEARS THE RETURN OF PB NIGHTHAWKS

March 30th, 2020

FOR THE BEST IN LATE NIGHT POLITICAL CONVERSATION For many years a regular feature on PB was nighthawks – an overnight open thread. For some reason we stopped doing it and I am bringing it back following calls by a couple of longstanding PBers. The nighthawks “logo”, inspired by the original Edward Hooper painting, was designed by Marf. For me there are two big unknowns – how long this is going to last and how the world will have changed when, hopefully, coronavirus has

been vanquished?

If you are a longstanding lurker why not join the conversation

tonight?

Over to you.

MIKE SMITHSON

Posted in Coalition

| 414 Comments

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