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THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. OVERPOPULATION AND THE ECOLOGY OF FOOD PRODUCTION This article may be reproduced in whole or in part for the purpose of research, education or other fair use, provided the nature and character of the work is maintained and credit is given to the author by the inclusion in the reproduction of his name and/or an electronic link to the article on the author's web site. THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. A TAXONOMY AND EPISTEMOLOGY OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT In the face of mounting evidence about the worsening state of the systems that humans and other life forms depend on, the need for deep understanding of the situation has never been more critical. THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
FINDING THE GIFT
Those of us who have been following the unfolding global crisis - the converging, interlocked "wicked problems" of energy, the environment, economics and social justice - have become intimately familiar with the painful progression through the Five Stages of Grief described by Elizabeth Kübler-Ross. THE GUARDIAN INSTITUTIONS OF HIERARCHY The Guardian Institutions of Hierarchy: One aspect of human culture that seems irresistible to the ancient status-seeking part of our brain is the development of hierarchies. The encoding of personal status and power into social structures is evident in the tribes and troops of all the great apes, but human beings have gone much further. ELECTRIC CARS AND CO2 Given the same assumptions about electric vehicles as in the American analysis above, electric cars in Canada could expect on average to cause CO 2 emissions of 0.2*1.1*234 = 51 g/km to 0..3*1.1*234 = 77 g/km, compared to ICE emissions of 167 to 224 g/km. The picture is even brighter is some provinces such as Ontario and Quebec, where a greater proportion of electricity is generated from THE EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY OF FUKUSHIMA Human civilization is engaged in the project of using materials and energy of all kinds to create ever-increasing amounts of order and structure in the world. THERMODYNAMICS OF CIVILIZATION First let me address the question of "people who acknowledge the cause of our problems".This comment seems to assume that there is a set of obvious problems with one cause that is well known and is commonly acknowledged by some, but not all, people. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ENERGY Demographic Transition Demographic Transition is defined in Wikipedia as follows. "The term demographic transition is a theory describing a possible transition from high birth rates and death rates to low birth and death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy."While demographic transition has never been experimentally verifiedPARADISE LOST
Many of us who have been paying attention to the state of the world over the last half century have now begun to realize with growing horror that the progressive deterioration we have been tracking shows no signs of resolution In fact, to some of us it looks as though thereis
APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on OVERPOPULATION AND THE ECOLOGY OF FOOD PRODUCTION This article may be reproduced in whole or in part for the purpose of research, education or other fair use, provided the nature and character of the work is maintained and credit is given to the author by the inclusion in the reproduction of his name and/or an electronic link to the article on the author's web site. POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Note. This article supercedes an earlier work, "World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100". Compared to that paper this article offers a more comprehensive look at the world's evolving energy picture and confines its projections to the first half of the century. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on OVERPOPULATION AND THE ECOLOGY OF FOOD PRODUCTION This article may be reproduced in whole or in part for the purpose of research, education or other fair use, provided the nature and character of the work is maintained and credit is given to the author by the inclusion in the reproduction of his name and/or an electronic link to the article on the author's web site. POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Note. This article supercedes an earlier work, "World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100". Compared to that paper this article offers a more comprehensive look at the world's evolving energy picture and confines its projections to the first half of the century. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
A TAXONOMY AND EPISTEMOLOGY OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT In the face of mounting evidence about the worsening state of the systems that humans and other life forms depend on, the need for deep understanding of the situation has never been more critical. ELECTRIC CARS AND CO2 Given the same assumptions about electric vehicles as in the American analysis above, electric cars in Canada could expect on average to cause CO 2 emissions of 0.2*1.1*234 = 51 g/km to 0..3*1.1*234 = 77 g/km, compared to ICE emissions of 167 to 224 g/km. The picture is even brighter is some provinces such as Ontario and Quebec, where a greater proportion of electricity is generated from THE EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY OF FUKUSHIMA Human civilization is engaged in the project of using materials and energy of all kinds to create ever-increasing amounts of order and structure in the world. THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will THERMODYNAMICS OF CIVILIZATION First let me address the question of "people who acknowledge the cause of our problems".This comment seems to assume that there is a set of obvious problems with one cause that is well known and is commonly acknowledged by some, but not all, people. THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ENERGY Demographic Transition Demographic Transition is defined in Wikipedia as follows. "The term demographic transition is a theory describing a possible transition from high birth rates and death rates to low birth and death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy."While demographic transition has never been experimentally verifiedFINDING THE GIFT
Those of us who have been following the unfolding global crisis - the converging, interlocked "wicked problems" of energy, the environment, economics and social justice - have become intimately familiar with the painful progression through the Five Stages of Grief described by Elizabeth Kübler-Ross.PARADISE LOST
Many of us who have been paying attention to the state of the world over the last half century have now begun to realize with growing horror that the progressive deterioration we have been tracking shows no signs of resolution In fact, to some of us it looks as though thereis
APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. OVERPOPULATION AND THE ECOLOGY OF FOOD PRODUCTION This article may be reproduced in whole or in part for the purpose of research, education or other fair use, provided the nature and character of the work is maintained and credit is given to the author by the inclusion in the reproduction of his name and/or an electronic link to the article on the author's web site. THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Note. This article supercedes an earlier work, "World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100". Compared to that paper this article offers a more comprehensive look at the world's evolving energy picture and confines its projections to the first half of the century. THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. OVERPOPULATION AND THE ECOLOGY OF FOOD PRODUCTION This article may be reproduced in whole or in part for the purpose of research, education or other fair use, provided the nature and character of the work is maintained and credit is given to the author by the inclusion in the reproduction of his name and/or an electronic link to the article on the author's web site. THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Note. This article supercedes an earlier work, "World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100". Compared to that paper this article offers a more comprehensive look at the world's evolving energy picture and confines its projections to the first half of the century. THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. A TAXONOMY AND EPISTEMOLOGY OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT In the face of mounting evidence about the worsening state of the systems that humans and other life forms depend on, the need for deep understanding of the situation has never been more critical. THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
FINDING THE GIFT
Those of us who have been following the unfolding global crisis - the converging, interlocked "wicked problems" of energy, the environment, economics and social justice - have become intimately familiar with the painful progression through the Five Stages of Grief described by Elizabeth Kübler-Ross. ELECTRIC CARS AND CO2 Given the same assumptions about electric vehicles as in the American analysis above, electric cars in Canada could expect on average to cause CO 2 emissions of 0.2*1.1*234 = 51 g/km to 0..3*1.1*234 = 77 g/km, compared to ICE emissions of 167 to 224 g/km. The picture is even brighter is some provinces such as Ontario and Quebec, where a greater proportion of electricity is generated from THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. THE EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY OF FUKUSHIMA Human civilization is engaged in the project of using materials and energy of all kinds to create ever-increasing amounts of order and structure in the world. THERMODYNAMICS OF CIVILIZATION First let me address the question of "people who acknowledge the cause of our problems".This comment seems to assume that there is a set of obvious problems with one cause that is well known and is commonly acknowledged by some, but not all, people. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ENERGY Demographic Transition Demographic Transition is defined in Wikipedia as follows. "The term demographic transition is a theory describing a possible transition from high birth rates and death rates to low birth and death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy."While demographic transition has never been experimentally verifiedPARADISE LOST
Many of us who have been paying attention to the state of the world over the last half century have now begun to realize with growing horror that the progressive deterioration we have been tracking shows no signs of resolution In fact, to some of us it looks as though thereis
APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
THE EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY OF FUKUSHIMA Human civilization is engaged in the project of using materials and energy of all kinds to create ever-increasing amounts of order and structure in the world. THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Note. This article supercedes an earlier work, "World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100". Compared to that paper this article offers a more comprehensive look at the world's evolving energy picture and confines its projections to the first half of the century. APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
THE EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY OF FUKUSHIMA Human civilization is engaged in the project of using materials and energy of all kinds to create ever-increasing amounts of order and structure in the world. THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Note. This article supercedes an earlier work, "World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100". Compared to that paper this article offers a more comprehensive look at the world's evolving energy picture and confines its projections to the first half of the century.INTRODUCTION
Thanks for visiting my web site. In order to give you a better understanding of what I'm doing here, a few words of introduction arein order.
FOOD PRICES AND OIL PRICES Just for grins in November 2010, I took the ten most recent years of world Food Price Index data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the monthly average oil price from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), and plotted them together. CULTURAL CHANGE AT THE LIMITS TO GROWTH Well, humanity certainly seems to be in a bit of a pickle at the moment. There are already too many of us for comfort (6.6 billion by the latest estimates), our population is still growing (perhaps to 9 billion by 2050), our economic activity and resource use is still increasing, climate change is showing signs of drastic acceleration, we are running into production limits on food and energy A TAXONOMY AND EPISTEMOLOGY OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT In the face of mounting evidence about the worsening state of the systems that humans and other life forms depend on, the need for deep understanding of the situation has never been more critical. THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. THE EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY OF FUKUSHIMA Human civilization is engaged in the project of using materials and energy of all kinds to create ever-increasing amounts of order and structure in the world. THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. THE DAWN OF CYBERNETIC CIVILIZATION The Dawn of Cybernetic Civilization. Humanity appears to be in the grip of a global system - one that we originally created, but which is now shaping our lives independently of our wishes. I've recently begun to suspect that humanity is at a point of endosymbiosis with our electronic communications and control technology, especially throughthe
THERMODYNAMICS OF CIVILIZATION First let me address the question of "people who acknowledge the cause of our problems".This comment seems to assume that there is a set of obvious problems with one cause that is well known and is commonly acknowledged by some, but not all, people. APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. CLIMBING THE LADDER OF AWARENESS It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response the the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind. THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Note. This article supercedes an earlier work, "World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100". Compared to that paper this article offers a more comprehensive look at the world's evolving energy picture and confines its projections to the first half of the century. THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. CLIMBING THE LADDER OF AWARENESS It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response the the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind. THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Note. This article supercedes an earlier work, "World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100". Compared to that paper this article offers a more comprehensive look at the world's evolving energy picture and confines its projections to the first half of the century. THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. A TAXONOMY AND EPISTEMOLOGY OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT In the face of mounting evidence about the worsening state of the systems that humans and other life forms depend on, the need for deep understanding of the situation has never been more critical. WORLD ENERGY AND POPULATION Caveat: The causal link between energy and population that I propose in this paper is essentially intuitive. While it seems reasonable, "proving" (or even conclusively demonstrating) that causality is difficult. If the linkage is valid, however, the consequences for humanity of any overall decline in energy supplies are too dire to beignored.
THE EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY OF FUKUSHIMA Human civilization is engaged in the project of using materials and energy of all kinds to create ever-increasing amounts of order and structure in the world.FINDING THE GIFT
Those of us who have been following the unfolding global crisis - the converging, interlocked "wicked problems" of energy, the environment, economics and social justice - have become intimately familiar with the painful progression through the Five Stages of Grief described by Elizabeth Kübler-Ross. ELECTRIC CARS AND CO2 Given the same assumptions about electric vehicles as in the American analysis above, electric cars in Canada could expect on average to cause CO 2 emissions of 0.2*1.1*234 = 51 g/km to 0..3*1.1*234 = 77 g/km, compared to ICE emissions of 167 to 224 g/km. The picture is even brighter is some provinces such as Ontario and Quebec, where a greater proportion of electricity is generated from THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. THERMODYNAMICS OF CIVILIZATION First let me address the question of "people who acknowledge the cause of our problems".This comment seems to assume that there is a set of obvious problems with one cause that is well known and is commonly acknowledged by some, but not all, people.PARADISE LOST
Many of us who have been paying attention to the state of the world over the last half century have now begun to realize with growing horror that the progressive deterioration we have been tracking shows no signs of resolution In fact, to some of us it looks as though thereis
WORLD ENERGY AND GDP The models by Kummel and Ayres predict that for every 1% increase in energy inputs you get about a 0.7% increase in GDP on average. The immediate implication is that a reduction of 1% in energy will cause a corresponding 0.7% drop in GDP. So if the world's oil supply were to decline by 30% the global GDP would lose 23% of its value. APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. HOMO ECONOMICUS, HOMO ECOLOGICUS Homo Economicus, Homo Ecologicus: From various altercations I've had on the Internet I've come to the realization that people who "speak" ecology and people who "speak" economics are operating in orthogonal (i.e. mutually perpendicular) frameworks. CLIMBING THE LADDER OF AWARENESS It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response the the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind. THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY PRODUCTION PRINCIPLE: ITS THEORETICAL Entropy 2010, 12 616 Figure 1. Entropy at equilibrium in an isolated system. Diagrams A and B represent a rigid box that is isolated from the rest of the universe in that it is impermeable to energy andmatter.
APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. HOMO ECONOMICUS, HOMO ECOLOGICUS Homo Economicus, Homo Ecologicus: From various altercations I've had on the Internet I've come to the realization that people who "speak" ecology and people who "speak" economics are operating in orthogonal (i.e. mutually perpendicular) frameworks. CLIMBING THE LADDER OF AWARENESS It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response the the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind. THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY PRODUCTION PRINCIPLE: ITS THEORETICAL Entropy 2010, 12 616 Figure 1. Entropy at equilibrium in an isolated system. Diagrams A and B represent a rigid box that is isolated from the rest of the universe in that it is impermeable to energy andmatter.
FOOD PRICES AND OIL PRICES Just for grins in November 2010, I took the ten most recent years of world Food Price Index data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the monthly average oil price from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), and plotted them together. A TAXONOMY AND EPISTEMOLOGY OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT In the face of mounting evidence about the worsening state of the systems that humans and other life forms depend on, the need for deep understanding of the situation has never been more critical. CLIMBING THE LADDER OF AWARENESS It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response the the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind.FINDING THE GIFT
Those of us who have been following the unfolding global crisis - the converging, interlocked "wicked problems" of energy, the environment, economics and social justice - have become intimately familiar with the painful progression through the Five Stages of Grief described by Elizabeth Kübler-Ross. POPULATION, FOOD AND ENERGY A common assumption among population analysts is that food availability is the main driver of population growth. In fact, most will go so far as to define the carrying capacity of an environment primarily in terms of the food that it offers to the population underconsideration.
THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will THERMODYNAMICS OF CIVILIZATION First let me address the question of "people who acknowledge the cause of our problems".This comment seems to assume that there is a set of obvious problems with one cause that is well known and is commonly acknowledged by some, but not all, people. THE EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY OF FUKUSHIMA Human civilization is engaged in the project of using materials and energy of all kinds to create ever-increasing amounts of order and structure in the world. THE DESTINY OF SPECIES BY MEANS OF NATURAL PROGRESSION An insightful teacher once told me that we spend the first half of our lives leaving home and the second half trying to find our way back. When seen in that light, there are some interesting parallels between our development as physical individuals, as spiritual beings and as aspecies.
WITNESS TO COLLAPSE
Within the community of the environmentally and ecologically aware, this is an uncommon position, although perhaps less so among those whohave chosen a
APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. HOMO ECONOMICUS, HOMO ECOLOGICUS Homo Economicus, Homo Ecologicus: From various altercations I've had on the Internet I've come to the realization that people who "speak" ecology and people who "speak" economics are operating in orthogonal (i.e. mutually perpendicular) frameworks. CLIMBING THE LADDER OF AWARENESS It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response the the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind. THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY PRODUCTION PRINCIPLE: ITS THEORETICAL Entropy 2010, 12 616 Figure 1. Entropy at equilibrium in an isolated system. Diagrams A and B represent a rigid box that is isolated from the rest of the universe in that it is impermeable to energy andmatter.
APPROACHING THE LIMITS For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on REFLECTIONS ON A NON-THEISTIC SPIRITUALITY Seth’s basic idea is similar to aspects of string theory: the reality in which we operate is just a small fragment of a much larger, more complex and deeply interconnected reality. POLITICS IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION Political Will, Political Won't: Introduction Today's environmental reform movement is founded on two core assumptions. The first is that most of the technical solutions we need to address the world's various crises are available, or at least could be swiftly developed by sufficiently intelligent, hard-working people. POPULATION, THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM Carrying Capacity In order to determine what a sustainable population level might be, we need to understand the ecological concept of carrying capacity.Carrying capacity is the population level of an organism that can be sustained given the quantity of life supporting infrastructure available to it. HOMO ECONOMICUS, HOMO ECOLOGICUS Homo Economicus, Homo Ecologicus: From various altercations I've had on the Internet I've come to the realization that people who "speak" ecology and people who "speak" economics are operating in orthogonal (i.e. mutually perpendicular) frameworks. CLIMBING THE LADDER OF AWARENESS It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response the the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind. THE STORY OF MY VISION QUEST The Story of my Vision Quest: From Saturday, August 1 to Tuesday August 4, 2009 I went on a vision quest. What follows are some of the highlights of that experience. CARRYING CAPACITY AND OVERSHOOT Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is a well-known ecological term that has an obvious and fairly intuitive meaning : "the maximum population size of a species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment". Unfortunately that definition becomes more nebulous the closer you look at it – especially when we THE LIMITS TO (POPULATION) GROWTH The point of the quote is that most people have the ecological cause and effect of food and population exactly backwards. The real problem is not that a rising population requires more food, but that an increasing food supply drives populations ever upward. THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY PRODUCTION PRINCIPLE: ITS THEORETICAL Entropy 2010, 12 616 Figure 1. Entropy at equilibrium in an isolated system. Diagrams A and B represent a rigid box that is isolated from the rest of the universe in that it is impermeable to energy andmatter.
FOOD PRICES AND OIL PRICES Just for grins in November 2010, I took the ten most recent years of world Food Price Index data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the monthly average oil price from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), and plotted them together. A TAXONOMY AND EPISTEMOLOGY OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT In the face of mounting evidence about the worsening state of the systems that humans and other life forms depend on, the need for deep understanding of the situation has never been more critical. CLIMBING THE LADDER OF AWARENESS It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response the the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind.FINDING THE GIFT
Those of us who have been following the unfolding global crisis - the converging, interlocked "wicked problems" of energy, the environment, economics and social justice - have become intimately familiar with the painful progression through the Five Stages of Grief described by Elizabeth Kübler-Ross. POPULATION, FOOD AND ENERGY A common assumption among population analysts is that food availability is the main driver of population growth. In fact, most will go so far as to define the carrying capacity of an environment primarily in terms of the food that it offers to the population underconsideration.
THE MANY FACES OF DENIAL Denial wears many faces. Whether it's average people who are too busy with their lives to take on board the more extreme reports of environmental degradation; bloggers and politicians who believe that it's all a hoax cooked up by evil scientists to get grant money for bogus studies; or, perhaps surprisingly, the green activists who believe that more political or technological change will THERMODYNAMICS OF CIVILIZATION First let me address the question of "people who acknowledge the cause of our problems".This comment seems to assume that there is a set of obvious problems with one cause that is well known and is commonly acknowledged by some, but not all, people. THE EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY OF FUKUSHIMA Human civilization is engaged in the project of using materials and energy of all kinds to create ever-increasing amounts of order and structure in the world. THE DESTINY OF SPECIES BY MEANS OF NATURAL PROGRESSION An insightful teacher once told me that we spend the first half of our lives leaving home and the second half trying to find our way back. When seen in that light, there are some interesting parallels between our development as physical individuals, as spiritual beings and as aspecies.
WITNESS TO COLLAPSE
Within the community of the environmentally and ecologically aware, this is an uncommon position, although perhaps less so among those whohave chosen a
For the last half dozen years this web site has served as my "explorer's notebook". It documents, in a very personal voice, my journey of discovery through the worlds of energy, ecology, economics and human culture. It describes my point of view on the largely unrecognized, widely misunderstood and potentially tragic predicament facing humanity as a result of our refusal to accept limits on our activities or aspirations. I no longer see any point in singling out individual aspects of the human experience for special attention or criticism. Population growth, climate change, global corporatism, chemical pollution, resource depletion, species extinctions, ocean overfishing and acidification, global financial instability, mounting social disparities and injustices are all merely symptoms of a system that has been out of control for centuries (despite our earnest attempts to convince ourselves otherwise.) We have no choice left - or perhaps we never really had any other choice - but to ride the dragon until the human overshoot corrects itself, as overshoots always do.The silver lining I
see is that all the pressures coming from this process of correction can be useful goads toward personal self-development. "In all matters, strive to do the right thing." What does this mean to each of us? What does mindful living in the midst of the whirlwind entail, what does it require of us in terms of personal growth, in the development of wisdom and self-awareness? How might each of us resolve our alienation - from each other, from our societies, from nature, from our own place in the universe? How may we find the re-connections that are essential if we are to emerge from this tumultuous, careless human adolescence into individual and collective adulthood? These are deep questions for dark times.Paul Chefurka
The Visionary Art ofKathleen Farago May
------------------------- Most Recent Articles: The Many Faces of Denial (November 14, 2013) Thermodynamics Reading List(November 9, 2013)
A Thermodynamic Answer to Fermi's Paradox (October 29,2013)
A Thermodynamic Critique (October 19, 2013) The Evolutionary Psychology of Fukushima (September 13, 2013) Paradise Lost (July 25, 2013) The Dawn of Cybernetic Civilization(July 16, 2013)
Thermodynamic Footprints (Updated March 23, 2013) No Really, How Sustainable Are We? (May 16,2013)
The Thermodynamics of Civilization (May 17,2013)
Articles that outline the core of my views:The Situation:
A 50,000-Foot View of the Global Crisis (July8, 2011)
Population: The Elephant in the Room (May 2007) Is Peak Population Almost Here? (February22, 2011)
The Neuropsychology of Climate Change (December, 2009) The Guardian Institutions of Hierarchy(July, 2009)
Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Another Look(May 12, 2012)
My Response:
Climbing the Ladder of Awareness (October19, 2012)
Enough! (November, 2010) Bearing Witness to Collapse (April 26, 2011) Introducing the Cultural Psychopomp (February 14,2012)
Finding The Gift (September 29, 2012) Complete list of articles ------------------------- ------------------------- Climbing the Ladder of Awareness When it comes to our understanding of the unfolding global crisis, each of us seems to fit somewhere along a continuum of awareness that can be roughly divided into five stages: * Dead asleep. At this stage there seem to be no fundamental problems, just some shortcomings in human organization, behaviour and morality that can be fixed with the proper attention to rule-making. People at this stage tend to live their lives happily, with occasional outbursts of annoyance around election times or the quarterly corporate earnings seasons. * Awareness of one fundamental problem. Whether it's Climate Change, overpopulation, Peak Oil, chemical pollution, oceanic over-fishing, biodiversity loss, corporatism, economic instability or sociopolitical injustice, one problem seems to engage the attention completely. People at this stage tend to become ardent activists for their chosen cause. They tend to be very vocal about their personal issue, and blind to any others. * Awareness of many problems. As people let in more evidence from different domains, the awareness of complexity begins to grow. At this point a person worries about the prioritization of problems in terms of their immediacy and degree of impact. People at this stage may become reluctant to acknowledge new problems - for example, someone who is committed to fighting for social justice and against climate change may not recognize the problem of resource depletion. They may feel that the problem space is already complex enough, and the addition of any new concerns will only dilute the effort that needs to be focused on solving the "highest priority" problem. * Awareness of the interconnections between the many problems. The realization that a solution in one domain may worsen a problem in another marks the beginning of large-scale system-level thinking. It also marks the transition from thinking of the situation in terms of a set of problems to thinking of it in terms of a predicament. At this point the possibility that there may not be a solution begins to raiseits head.
People who arrive at this stage tend to withdraw into tight circles of like-minded individuals in order to trade insights and deepen their understanding of what's going on. These circles are necessarily small, both because personal dialogue is essential for this depth of exploration, and because there just aren't very many people who have arrived at this level of understanding. * Awareness that the predicament encompasses all aspects of life. This includes everything we do, how we do it, our relationships with each other, as well as our treatment of the rest of the biosphere and the physical planet. With this realization, the floodgates open, and no problem is exempt from consideration or acceptance. The very concept of a "Solution" is seen through, and cast aside as a waste ofeffort.
For those who arrive at Stage 5 there is a real risk that depression will set in. After all, we've learned throughout our lives that our hope for tomorrow lies in our ability to solve problems today. When no amount of human cleverness appears able to solve our predicament the possibility of hope can vanish like a the light of a candle flame, to be replaced by the suffocating darkness of despair. How people cope with despair is of course deeply personal, but it seems to me there are two general routes people take to reconcile themselves with the situation. These are not mutually exclusive, and most of us will operate out of some mix of the two. I identify them here as general tendencies, because people seem to be drawn more to one or the other. I call them the outer path and the inner path. If one is inclined to choose the outer path, concerns about adaptation and local resilience move into the foreground, as exemplified by the Transition Network and Permaculture Movement . To those on the outer path, community-building and local sustainability initiatives will have great appeal. Organized party politics seems to be less attractive to people at this stage, however. Perhaps politics is seen as part of the problem, or perhaps it's just seen as a waste of effort when the real action will take place at the locallevel.
If one is disinclined to choose the outer path either because of temperament or circumstance, the inner path offers its own set ofattractions.
Choosing the inner path involves re-framing the whole thing in terms of consciousness, self-awareness and/or some form of transcendent perception. For someone on this path it is seen as an attempt to manifest Gandhi's message, "Become the change you wish to see in the world," on the most profoundly personal level. This message is similarly expressed in the ancient Hermetic saying, "As above, so below." Or in plain language, "In order to heal the world, first begin by healing yourself." However, the inner path does not imply a "retreat into religion". Most of the people I've met who have chosen an inner path have as little use for traditional religion as their counterparts on the outer path have for traditional politics. Organized religion is usually seen as part of the predicament rather than a valid response to it. Those who have arrived at this point have no interest in hiding from or easing the painful truth, rather they wish to create a coherent personal context for it. Personal spirituality of one sort or another often works for this, but organized religion rarely does. It's worth mentioning that there is also the possibility of a serious personal difficulty at this point. If someone cannot choose an outer path for whatever reasons, and is also resistant to the idea of inner growth or spirituality as a response the the crisis of an entire planet, then they are truly in a bind. There are few other doorways out of this depth of despair. If one remains stuck here for an extended period of time, life can begin to seem awfully bleak, and violence against either the world or oneself may begin begin to seem like a reasonable option. Keep a watchful eye on your own progress, and if you encounter someone else who may be in this state, please offer them a supportive ear. From my observations, each successive stage contains roughly a tenth of the number people as the one before it. So while perhaps 90% of humanity is in Stage 1, less than one person in ten thousand will be at Stage 5 (and none of them are likely to be politicians). The number of those who have chosen the inner path in Stage 5 also seems to be an order of magnitude smaller than the number who are on theouter path.
I happen to have chosen an inner path as my response to a Stage 5 awareness. It works well for me, but navigating this imminent (transition, shift, metamorphosis - call it what you will), will require all of us - no matter what our chosen paths - to cooperate on making wise decisions in difficult times. Best wishes for a long, exciting and fulfilling journey.Bodhi Paul Chefurka
October 19, 2012
-------------------------Articles
Factual Articles
------------------------- * The Many Faces of Denial (November 14, 2013) * Thermodynamics Reading List(November 9, 2013)
* A Thermodynamic Answer to Fermi's Paradox (October29, 2013)
* A Thermodynamic Critique (October 19,2013)
* The Evolutionary Psychology of Fukushima (September 13, 2013) * Paradise Lost (July 25, 2013) * The Dawn of Cybernetic Civilization(July 16, 2013)
* Looking at the Limit (May 27, 2013) * No Really, How Sustainable Are We? (May 16,2013)
* Thermodynamic Footprints (Updated March 23, 2013) * Climbing the Ladder of Awareness(October 19, 2012)
* Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Another Look(May 12, 2012)
* A Taxonomy and Epistemology of the Human Predicament(May 24, 2011)
* Responding to Peak Food, Oil and Population(February 24, 2011)
* Is Peak Population Almost Here?(February 22, 2011)
* The Oil-Fired, Grain-Fed Global Food Crisis(February 17, 2011)
* How tight is the link between oil, food and population?(February 15, 2011)
* Connecting the Dots: Food, Fossil Fuel and Population(January 31, 2011)
* Our Interactive Ecological Predicament(January, 2011)
* Population Redux (January, 2011) * Food Prices and Oil Prices (November, 2010) * Decarbonizing Civilization (November, 2010) * The Footprints of Consumption(December, 2009)
* Population, Consumption and our Ecological Footprint(December, 2009)
* The 2012 Meme (November, 2009) * From the Head to the Heart (PDF of presentation, Oct. 2009) * The Guardian Institutions of Hierarchy(July, 2009)
* The Limits to (Population) Growth(July, 2009)
* How the heck did it come to this? (March, 2009) * Homo Economicus, Homo Ecologicus(December, 2008)
* Approaching the Limits To Growth (PDF of presentationslides, Oct. 2008)
* The Ecology of Overpopulation(September, 2008)
* None of the Above (September, 2008) * Political Will, Political Won't (September, 2008) * Who Am I? (Jan. 2008) * Energy Use and Population Growth(August 2008)
* The View From the Peak (Mar.2007)
* A Peak Oil Story on CBC TV (Mar. 2007) * The Converging Crisis (radio interview -Jan. 2008)
* The Converging Crisis (PDF of presentationslides - Feb. 2008)
* A List of Countries with Energy Supply Problems(Feb. 2008)
* Why I am Against Biofuels (May 2007) * Mexico: Peak Oil in Action(Sep. 2007)
* The Saudi Peak - a Hypothesis about the Iraq War(May 2007)
* Oil Prices in 2012 (May 2008)Hopeful Articles
------------------------- * Finding The Gift (September 29, 2012) * A Postcard From the Path (June 6, 2012) * Introducing the Cultural Psychopomp (February14, 2012)
* The Destiny of Species by Means of Natural Progression(October 15, 2011)
Creating a new "Natural Order" (May 18, 2011) * Reality and Illusion, Awareness and Love(April 23, 2011)
* Slaying the Hydra (March 14, 2011) * Enough! (November, 2010) * Finding Peace of Mind (February, 2010) * Reflections on a Non-Theistic Spirituality(January, 2010)
* Transfiguration (Oct. 2009) * Attachments, Connections and Love(Oct. 2009)
* The Story of my Vision Quest (Aug. 2009) * Reflections on the Vision Quest (Aug. 2009) * What is Enlightenment? (July, 2009) * The Importance of Enlightenment(June, 2009)
* The Message of Overconsumption (June,2009)
* A Way of Seeing (June, 2009) * Hide or Seek? (May, 2009) * The Awakening (May, 2009) * The Global Movement that Barack Obama Isn't Leading(May, 2009)
* Meat Computers with Cultural Programs(April, 2009)
* Sacred Demise (March, 2009) * The Parable of the Marriage (November, 2008) * Gathering Momentum (November, 2008) * From Despair to Hope (November,2008)
* Separation, Awakening and Revolution(November, 2008)
* Changing the Dream (October, 2008) * The Twelve Suggestions (October, 2008) * The Spiritual Effects of Comprehending the Crisis(Aug, 2008)
* Don't Worry About Collapse (July, 2008) * Solutions or Responses? (July, 2008) * The Potential for Conflict(July, 2008)
* Cultural Change at the Limits to Growth(May 2008)
* Fighting Despair (Feb. 2008) * Population Decline - Red Herrings and Hope(July
2007)
* What Can I Do? A Personal Action Plan (June 2007) * An Acronym for the Times: I HELP (Apr. 2007) * Recommended: The Awakening the Dreamer Initiative * Recommended: The Ascent of Humanity(online book)
Less Hopeful Articles ------------------------- * A 50,000-Foot View of the Global Crisis(July 8, 2011)
* Bearing Witness to Collapse (April 26,2011)
* Urbanitemares (January, 2010) * The Neuropsychology of Climate Change (December,2009)
* The New Normal (December, 2008) * Is Fusion the Answer? (August, 2008) * Time Horizons, Overshoot, Genetics and Resilience(Jan. 2007)
* Why We Don't See Risks: The Hyperbolic Discount Function(Mar. 2007)
* Demographic Transition Through Increased Energy?(Aug. 2007)
* Why Tinkering Won't Fix It (Jan. 2008) Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Enter Here ------------------------- * Population: The Elephant in the Room (May 2007) * World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100(Oct. 2007)
A multi-part analysis of the near future: * Part 1: World Energy to 2050: Forty Years of Decline(Oct. 2007)
* Part 2: Energy Intensity and GDP: To Have or Have Not(Dec. 2007)
* Part 3: Can Wind Power Plug the Energy Gap?(Feb. 2008)
* Part 4: Africa in 2040 (HTML)(PDF) (Feb.
2008)
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