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OUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal andGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and HEADED FOR A COLLAPSING DEBT BUBBLE WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. WE CAN’T EXPECT COVID-19 TO GO AWAY; WE SHOULD PLAN It is doubtful that vaccines will lead to world herd immunity with respect to COVID-19. We need to focus on our own immune system, making simple changes to buildings and customs, and changing expectations. The issue we are facing is really an energy issue. TRUE SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS We live in a world with very limited solutions to our sustainability problems. I often hear the view, "If we would just get off fossil fuels, then our society would be sustainable." Or, "If the price of oil would just go high enough, then renewables would become economic, and our economy would be sustainable." Unfortunately, WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION SINCE 1820 IN CHARTS Figure 1 shows the huge increase in world energy consumption that has taken place in roughly the last 200 years. This rise in energy consumption is primarily from increased fossil fuel use. With energy consumption rising as rapidly as shown in Figure 1, UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM Globalization seems to be looked on as an unmitigated "good" by economists. Unfortunately, economists seem to be guided by their badly flawed models; they miss real-world problems. In particular, they miss the point that the world is finite. We don't have infinite resources, or unlimited ability to handle excess pollution. So we are setting upOUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal andGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and HEADED FOR A COLLAPSING DEBT BUBBLE WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. WE CAN’T EXPECT COVID-19 TO GO AWAY; WE SHOULD PLAN It is doubtful that vaccines will lead to world herd immunity with respect to COVID-19. We need to focus on our own immune system, making simple changes to buildings and customs, and changing expectations. The issue we are facing is really an energy issue. TRUE SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS We live in a world with very limited solutions to our sustainability problems. I often hear the view, "If we would just get off fossil fuels, then our society would be sustainable." Or, "If the price of oil would just go high enough, then renewables would become economic, and our economy would be sustainable." Unfortunately, WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION SINCE 1820 IN CHARTS Figure 1 shows the huge increase in world energy consumption that has taken place in roughly the last 200 years. This rise in energy consumption is primarily from increased fossil fuel use. With energy consumption rising as rapidly as shown in Figure 1, UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM Globalization seems to be looked on as an unmitigated "good" by economists. Unfortunately, economists seem to be guided by their badly flawed models; they miss real-world problems. In particular, they miss the point that the world is finite. We don't have infinite resources, or unlimited ability to handle excess pollution. So we are setting up HOW THE WORLD’S ENERGY PROBLEM HAS BEEN HIDDEN We are entering a period of severe energy shortages, especially related to oil and coal. These shortages will not be obvious because they will be caused by prices that are too low for producers. This is the opposite problem from the high energy prices that most people are expecting. Media will tend to report a one-sided view of the problem, not wanting to scare citizens. DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of lowoil
HEADED FOR A COLLAPSING DEBT BUBBLE The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don't appear to be fixable in the near term. The likely outcome is a collapse of world's debt bubble. Oil prices are likely to fall by 50% or more. I show that added debt is WHERE ENERGY MODELING GOES WRONG Distorted models suggest that far more fossil fuels can be extracted in the future than is actually the case. Diminishing returns affect all types of resources simultaneously. Wages do not rise enough to compensate for the higher costs. EROEI models equate energy extraction requiring a high level of complexity with those with less complexity.This is misleading.
WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION SINCE 1820 IN CHARTS Figure 1 shows the huge increase in world energy consumption that has taken place in roughly the last 200 years. This rise in energy consumption is primarily from increased fossil fuel use. With energy consumption rising as rapidly as shown in Figure 1, WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. WHY MALTHUS GOT HIS FORECAST WRONG Most of us have heard that Thomas Malthus made a forecast in 1798 that the world would run short of food. He expected that this would happen because in a world with limited agricultural land, food supply would fail to rise as rapidly as population. In fact, at the time of his writing, he believed that WHY OIL UNDER $30 PER BARREL IS A MAJOR PROBLEM A person often reads that low oil prices--for example, $30 per barrel oil prices--will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as I see it: 1. Oil producers can't really produce oil for $30 per barrel. A few countries can get oil AN ENERGY/GDP FORECAST TO 2050 If we use the regression line in Figure 6 to estimate what the average annual growth rate would be with energy consumption contracting by -1.72% per year (on average) between 2010 and 2050, the corresponding average GDP change (on an inflation adjusted basis) would be contraction of -1.07% per year, rather than contraction of -0.59% per year, figured based on the regression analysis shown in WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS WITH USING CORN ETHANOL FOR FUEL According to the Berkeley study, “Ethanol today” is a very efficient user of petroleum.Even back when this study was done, it used .04 mega joules (MJ) of petroleum for each MJ of ethanol produced. From what Brian is telling me, advances are working to make this ratio even better.OUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal andGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and HEADED FOR A COLLAPSING DEBT BUBBLE The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don't appear to be fixable in the near term. The likely outcome is a collapse of world's debt bubble. Oil prices are likely to fall by 50% or more. I show that added debt is DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. WE CAN’T EXPECT COVID-19 TO GO AWAY; WE SHOULD PLAN It is doubtful that vaccines will lead to world herd immunity with respect to COVID-19. We need to focus on our own immune system, making simple changes to buildings and customs, and changing expectations. The issue we are facing is really an energy issue. THE TRUE FEASIBILITY OF MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION 6 Mitigating the peaking of world conventional oil production presents a classic risk management problem: • Mitigation initiated earlier than required may turn out to be TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM Globalization seems to be looked on as an unmitigated "good" by economists. Unfortunately, economists seem to be guided by their badly flawed models; they miss real-world problems. In particular, they miss the point that the world is finite. We don't have infinite resources, or unlimited ability to handle excess pollution. So we are setting upOUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal andGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and HEADED FOR A COLLAPSING DEBT BUBBLE The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don't appear to be fixable in the near term. The likely outcome is a collapse of world's debt bubble. Oil prices are likely to fall by 50% or more. I show that added debt is DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. WE CAN’T EXPECT COVID-19 TO GO AWAY; WE SHOULD PLAN It is doubtful that vaccines will lead to world herd immunity with respect to COVID-19. We need to focus on our own immune system, making simple changes to buildings and customs, and changing expectations. The issue we are facing is really an energy issue. THE TRUE FEASIBILITY OF MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION 6 Mitigating the peaking of world conventional oil production presents a classic risk management problem: • Mitigation initiated earlier than required may turn out to be TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM Globalization seems to be looked on as an unmitigated "good" by economists. Unfortunately, economists seem to be guided by their badly flawed models; they miss real-world problems. In particular, they miss the point that the world is finite. We don't have infinite resources, or unlimited ability to handle excess pollution. So we are setting up DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of lowoil
JANUARY | 2021 | OUR FINITE WORLD Perhaps COVID-19 will be somewhat better in 2021 than 2020, but other aspects of the economy will likely be worse. The real problem is an energy problem that is getting worse, not better. We can expect more overturned governments, more debt defaults, cutbacks in education programs, loss of top layers of governments, and less globalization. At some point, hyperinflation may occur. DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and HEADED FOR A COLLAPSING DEBT BUBBLE The economy runs on energy, far more than it operates on growing debt. Our energy problems don't appear to be fixable in the near term. The likely outcome is a collapse of world's debt bubble. Oil prices are likely to fall by 50% or more. I show that added debt is HOW THE WORLD’S ENERGY PROBLEM HAS BEEN HIDDEN We are entering a period of severe energy shortages, especially related to oil and coal. These shortages will not be obvious because they will be caused by prices that are too low for producers. This is the opposite problem from the high energy prices that most people are expecting. Media will tend to report a one-sided view of the problem, not wanting to scare citizens. INCREASED VIOLENCE REFLECTS AN ENERGY PROBLEM Even before the lockdowns, low commodity prices were leading to low wages of those working in commodity industries around the world. These low prices also led to low tax revenue, and this low tax revenue led to an inability of governments to afford the services that citizens expect, such as bus service and subsidized prices for certain essential goods/services. UNDERSTANDING OUR PANDEMIC The world's number one problem today is that the world's population is too large for its resource base. Some people have called this situation overshoot. The world economy is ripe for a major change, such as the current pandemic, to bring the situation into balance. The change doesn't necessarily come from the coronavirus itself. Instead, WE CAN’T EXPECT COVID-19 TO GO AWAY; WE SHOULD PLAN It is doubtful that vaccines will lead to world herd immunity with respect to COVID-19. We need to focus on our own immune system, making simple changes to buildings and customs, and changing expectations. The issue we are facing is really an energy issue.CHRIS MARTENSON
File name: energy-panel-seminar-2020_hd.mp4 4 Chris: Well, let's go there though.Gail next, because I know you have an answer to this, but Richard, while you're on it, AN ENERGY/GDP FORECAST TO 2050 If we use the regression line in Figure 6 to estimate what the average annual growth rate would be with energy consumption contracting by -1.72% per year (on average) between 2010 and 2050, the corresponding average GDP change (on an inflation adjusted basis) would be contraction of -1.07% per year, rather than contraction of -0.59% per year, figured based on the regression analysis shown inOUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal andGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WE CAN’T EXPECT COVID-19 TO GO AWAY; WE SHOULD PLAN A cost of $300 per person would amount to 0.7% of Israel’s 2019 GDP, which is theoretically feasible. But for poorer countries, the relative cost would be much higher. For South Africa, it would amount to 5% of 2019 GDP. For Yemen, it would come to 40% of 2019 GDP. (These are my calculations, using World Bank GDP in current US$.) WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. THE TRUE FEASIBILITY OF MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels. One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some otherenergy
TRUE SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS True sustainability solutions. Posted on March 31, 2012 by Gail Tverberg. We live in a world with very limited solutions to our sustainability problems. I often hear the view, “If we would just get off fossil fuels, then our society would be sustainable.”. Or, “If the price of oil would just go high enough, then renewableswould become
UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
AN ENERGY/GDP FORECAST TO 2050 If we use the regression line in Figure 6 to estimate what the average annual growth rate would be with energy consumption contracting by -1.72% per year (on average) between 2010 and 2050, the corresponding average GDP change (on an inflation adjusted basis) would be contraction of -1.07% per year, rather than contraction of -0.59% per year, figured based on the regression analysis shown in TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM The following is a list of reasons why globalization is not living up to what was promised, and is, in fact, a very major problem. 1. Globalization uses up finite resources more quickly. As an example, China joined the world trade organization in December 2001. In 2002, its coal use began rising rapidly (Figure 1, below).OUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal andGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WE CAN’T EXPECT COVID-19 TO GO AWAY; WE SHOULD PLAN A cost of $300 per person would amount to 0.7% of Israel’s 2019 GDP, which is theoretically feasible. But for poorer countries, the relative cost would be much higher. For South Africa, it would amount to 5% of 2019 GDP. For Yemen, it would come to 40% of 2019 GDP. (These are my calculations, using World Bank GDP in current US$.) WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. THE TRUE FEASIBILITY OF MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels. One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some otherenergy
TRUE SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS True sustainability solutions. Posted on March 31, 2012 by Gail Tverberg. We live in a world with very limited solutions to our sustainability problems. I often hear the view, “If we would just get off fossil fuels, then our society would be sustainable.”. Or, “If the price of oil would just go high enough, then renewableswould become
UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
AN ENERGY/GDP FORECAST TO 2050 If we use the regression line in Figure 6 to estimate what the average annual growth rate would be with energy consumption contracting by -1.72% per year (on average) between 2010 and 2050, the corresponding average GDP change (on an inflation adjusted basis) would be contraction of -1.07% per year, rather than contraction of -0.59% per year, figured based on the regression analysis shown in TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM The following is a list of reasons why globalization is not living up to what was promised, and is, in fact, a very major problem. 1. Globalization uses up finite resources more quickly. As an example, China joined the world trade organization in December 2001. In 2002, its coal use began rising rapidly (Figure 1, below).OUR FINITE WORLD
The quantity of energy supply affects both the supply and demand of finished goods and services. History shows that the result of inadequate energy supplies is often collapse or a resource war, in an attempt to obtain more of the necessary resources. DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of lowoil
HOW THE WORLD’S ENERGY PROBLEM HAS BEEN HIDDEN We are entering a period of severe energy shortages, especially related to oil and coal. These shortages will not be obvious because they will be caused by prices that are too low for producers. This is the opposite problem from the high energy prices that most people are expecting. Media will tend to report a one-sided view of the problem, not wanting to scare citizens. DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WHERE ENERGY MODELING GOES WRONG Distorted models suggest that far more fossil fuels can be extracted in the future than is actually the case. Diminishing returns affect all types of resources simultaneously. Wages do not rise enough to compensate for the higher costs. EROEI models equate energy extraction requiring a high level of complexity with those with less complexity.This is misleading.
UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION SINCE 1820 IN CHARTS World Energy Consumption Since 1820 in Charts. Posted on March 12, 2012 by Gail Tverberg. Figure 1 shows the huge increase in world energy consumption that has taken place in roughly the last 200 years. This rise in energy consumption is primarily from increased fossilfuel use. Figure 1.
WHY MALTHUS GOT HIS FORECAST WRONG Why Malthus Got His Forecast Wrong. Most of us have heard that Thomas Malthus made a forecast in 1798 that the world would run short of food. He expected that this would happen because in a world with limited agricultural land, food supply would fail to rise as rapidly as population. In fact, at the time of his writing, he believed that WHY OIL UNDER $30 PER BARREL IS A MAJOR PROBLEM 1. Oil producers can’t really produce oil for $30 per barrel. A few countries can get oil out of the ground for $30 per barrel. Figure 1 gives an approximation to technical extraction costs for various countries. Even on this basis, there aren’t many countries extracting oil for under $30 per barrel–only Saudi Arabia, Iran, andIraq.
OUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal andGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WE CAN’T EXPECT COVID-19 TO GO AWAY; WE SHOULD PLAN A cost of $300 per person would amount to 0.7% of Israel’s 2019 GDP, which is theoretically feasible. But for poorer countries, the relative cost would be much higher. For South Africa, it would amount to 5% of 2019 GDP. For Yemen, it would come to 40% of 2019 GDP. (These are my calculations, using World Bank GDP in current US$.) WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. THE TRUE FEASIBILITY OF MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels. One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some otherenergy
TRUE SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS True sustainability solutions. Posted on March 31, 2012 by Gail Tverberg. We live in a world with very limited solutions to our sustainability problems. I often hear the view, “If we would just get off fossil fuels, then our society would be sustainable.”. Or, “If the price of oil would just go high enough, then renewableswould become
UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
AN ENERGY/GDP FORECAST TO 2050 If we use the regression line in Figure 6 to estimate what the average annual growth rate would be with energy consumption contracting by -1.72% per year (on average) between 2010 and 2050, the corresponding average GDP change (on an inflation adjusted basis) would be contraction of -1.07% per year, rather than contraction of -0.59% per year, figured based on the regression analysis shown in TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM The following is a list of reasons why globalization is not living up to what was promised, and is, in fact, a very major problem. 1. Globalization uses up finite resources more quickly. As an example, China joined the world trade organization in December 2001. In 2002, its coal use began rising rapidly (Figure 1, below).OUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal andGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WE CAN’T EXPECT COVID-19 TO GO AWAY; WE SHOULD PLAN A cost of $300 per person would amount to 0.7% of Israel’s 2019 GDP, which is theoretically feasible. But for poorer countries, the relative cost would be much higher. For South Africa, it would amount to 5% of 2019 GDP. For Yemen, it would come to 40% of 2019 GDP. (These are my calculations, using World Bank GDP in current US$.) WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. THE TRUE FEASIBILITY OF MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels. One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some otherenergy
TRUE SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS True sustainability solutions. Posted on March 31, 2012 by Gail Tverberg. We live in a world with very limited solutions to our sustainability problems. I often hear the view, “If we would just get off fossil fuels, then our society would be sustainable.”. Or, “If the price of oil would just go high enough, then renewableswould become
UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
AN ENERGY/GDP FORECAST TO 2050 If we use the regression line in Figure 6 to estimate what the average annual growth rate would be with energy consumption contracting by -1.72% per year (on average) between 2010 and 2050, the corresponding average GDP change (on an inflation adjusted basis) would be contraction of -1.07% per year, rather than contraction of -0.59% per year, figured based on the regression analysis shown in TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM The following is a list of reasons why globalization is not living up to what was promised, and is, in fact, a very major problem. 1. Globalization uses up finite resources more quickly. As an example, China joined the world trade organization in December 2001. In 2002, its coal use began rising rapidly (Figure 1, below).OUR FINITE WORLD
The quantity of energy supply affects both the supply and demand of finished goods and services. History shows that the result of inadequate energy supplies is often collapse or a resource war, in an attempt to obtain more of the necessary resources. DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of lowoil
HOW THE WORLD’S ENERGY PROBLEM HAS BEEN HIDDEN We are entering a period of severe energy shortages, especially related to oil and coal. These shortages will not be obvious because they will be caused by prices that are too low for producers. This is the opposite problem from the high energy prices that most people are expecting. Media will tend to report a one-sided view of the problem, not wanting to scare citizens. DON’T EXPECT THE WORLD ECONOMY TO RESUME ITS PRIOR GROWTH Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WHERE ENERGY MODELING GOES WRONG Distorted models suggest that far more fossil fuels can be extracted in the future than is actually the case. Diminishing returns affect all types of resources simultaneously. Wages do not rise enough to compensate for the higher costs. EROEI models equate energy extraction requiring a high level of complexity with those with less complexity.This is misleading.
UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION SINCE 1820 IN CHARTS World Energy Consumption Since 1820 in Charts. Posted on March 12, 2012 by Gail Tverberg. Figure 1 shows the huge increase in world energy consumption that has taken place in roughly the last 200 years. This rise in energy consumption is primarily from increased fossilfuel use. Figure 1.
WHY MALTHUS GOT HIS FORECAST WRONG Why Malthus Got His Forecast Wrong. Most of us have heard that Thomas Malthus made a forecast in 1798 that the world would run short of food. He expected that this would happen because in a world with limited agricultural land, food supply would fail to rise as rapidly as population. In fact, at the time of his writing, he believed that WHY OIL UNDER $30 PER BARREL IS A MAJOR PROBLEM 1. Oil producers can’t really produce oil for $30 per barrel. A few countries can get oil out of the ground for $30 per barrel. Figure 1 gives an approximation to technical extraction costs for various countries. Even on this basis, there aren’t many countries extracting oil for under $30 per barrel–only Saudi Arabia, Iran, andIraq.
OUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and ABOUT | OUR FINITE WORLD The author of Our Finite World is Gail Tverberg. She is a researcher focused on figuring out how energy limits and the economy are really interconnected, and what this means for our future. Her background is as a casualty actuary, working in insurance forecasting. Gail first became aware of oil shortages, and the impact theyGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. INCREASED VIOLENCE REFLECTS AN ENERGY PROBLEM Even before the lockdowns, low commodity prices were leading to low wages of those working in commodity industries around the world. These low prices also led to low tax revenue, and this low tax revenue led to an inability of governments to afford the services that citizens expect, such as bus service and subsidized prices for certain essential goods/services. UNDERSTANDING OUR ECONOMIC TRAJECTORY This is a guest post by "Shunyata." Shunyata has training in financial engineering, actuarial science, statistics, and mechanical engineering. While he does not work directly with structural economic theory, his background in financial engineering gives him insights. The observations below represent Shunyata's personal opinions based on his study of economics and monetary policy to protect THE TRUE FEASIBILITY OF MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM Globalization seems to be looked on as an unmitigated "good" by economists. Unfortunately, economists seem to be guided by their badly flawed models; they miss real-world problems. In particular, they miss the point that the world is finite. We don't have infinite resources, or unlimited ability to handle excess pollution. So we are setting up AN ENERGY/GDP FORECAST TO 2050 If we use the regression line in Figure 6 to estimate what the average annual growth rate would be with energy consumption contracting by -1.72% per year (on average) between 2010 and 2050, the corresponding average GDP change (on an inflation adjusted basis) would be contraction of -1.07% per year, rather than contraction of -0.59% per year, figured based on the regression analysis shown inOUR FINITE WORLD
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and ABOUT | OUR FINITE WORLD The author of Our Finite World is Gail Tverberg. She is a researcher focused on figuring out how energy limits and the economy are really interconnected, and what this means for our future. Her background is as a casualty actuary, working in insurance forecasting. Gail first became aware of oil shortages, and the impact theyGAIL TVERBERG
Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal and WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. INCREASED VIOLENCE REFLECTS AN ENERGY PROBLEM Even before the lockdowns, low commodity prices were leading to low wages of those working in commodity industries around the world. These low prices also led to low tax revenue, and this low tax revenue led to an inability of governments to afford the services that citizens expect, such as bus service and subsidized prices for certain essential goods/services. UNDERSTANDING OUR ECONOMIC TRAJECTORY This is a guest post by "Shunyata." Shunyata has training in financial engineering, actuarial science, statistics, and mechanical engineering. While he does not work directly with structural economic theory, his background in financial engineering gives him insights. The observations below represent Shunyata's personal opinions based on his study of economics and monetary policy to protect THE TRUE FEASIBILITY OF MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, UNDERSTANDING WHY THE GREEN NEW DEAL WON’T REALLY WORK The reasons why the Green New Deal won't really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. None of the new renewables can easily be relied upon toproduce
TWELVE REASONS WHY GLOBALIZATION IS A HUGE PROBLEM Globalization seems to be looked on as an unmitigated "good" by economists. Unfortunately, economists seem to be guided by their badly flawed models; they miss real-world problems. In particular, they miss the point that the world is finite. We don't have infinite resources, or unlimited ability to handle excess pollution. So we are setting up AN ENERGY/GDP FORECAST TO 2050 If we use the regression line in Figure 6 to estimate what the average annual growth rate would be with energy consumption contracting by -1.72% per year (on average) between 2010 and 2050, the corresponding average GDP change (on an inflation adjusted basis) would be contraction of -1.07% per year, rather than contraction of -0.59% per year, figured based on the regression analysis shown inOUR FINITE WORLD
Exploring how oil limits affect the economy. Powering the world’s economy with wind, water and solar, and perhaps a little wood sounds like a good idea until a person looks at the details. MAY | 2021 | OUR FINITE WORLD Don't expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19. Economic growth was slowing because of resource shortages long before COVID-19. The economy will likely hit a financial roadblock in the next few months. The world needs a growing supply of oil and coal production. This cannot happen because of low oil prices. China is especially affected. Its coal andPDFS OF POSTS
PDFs of Posts Attached is a list of recent posts, plus popular older posts in PDF format. Separately, at the bottom of the list I show some selected presentations, also in PDF format. These may be helpful if New readers want to see a list of posts that they have missed; sorry,I haven't written
WHY COLLAPSE OCCURS; WHY IT MAY NOT BE FAR AWAY Collapse doesn't happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs. TRUE SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS We live in a world with very limited solutions to our sustainability problems. I often hear the view, "If we would just get off fossil fuels, then our society would be sustainable." Or, "If the price of oil would just go high enough, then renewables would become economic, and our economy would be sustainable." Unfortunately, WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION SINCE 1820 IN CHARTS Figure 1 shows the huge increase in world energy consumption that has taken place in roughly the last 200 years. This rise in energy consumption is primarily from increased fossil fuel use. With energy consumption rising as rapidly as shown in Figure 1, WHY MALTHUS GOT HIS FORECAST WRONG Most of us have heard that Thomas Malthus made a forecast in 1798 that the world would run short of food. He expected that this would happen because in a world with limited agricultural land, food supply would fail to rise as rapidly as population. In fact, at the time of his writing, he believed that WHY OIL UNDER $30 PER BARREL IS A MAJOR PROBLEM A person often reads that low oil prices--for example, $30 per barrel oil prices--will stimulate the economy, and the economy will soon bounce back. What is wrong with this story? A lot of things, as I see it: 1. Oil producers can't really produce oil for $30 per barrel. A few countries can get oil WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS WITH USING CORN ETHANOL FOR FUEL According to the Berkeley study, “Ethanol today” is a very efficient user of petroleum.Even back when this study was done, it used .04 mega joules (MJ) of petroleum for each MJ of ethanol produced. From what Brian is telling me, advances are working to make this ratio even better. WILL THE DECLINE IN WORLD OIL SUPPLY BE FAST OR SLOW I wrote a post last week called Steep oil decline or slow oil decline? Since writing it, I had some additional thoughts on the subject, on reasons to expect a steep decline rather than a slow decline. Furthermore, my article What’s behind United States budget problems? got me to thinking about the reasons for declining employment. In thisOUR FINITE WORLD
EXPLORING HOW OIL LIMITS AFFECT THE ECONOMYSearch
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ENERGY IS THE ECONOMY; SHRINKAGE IN ENERGY SUPPLY LEADS TO CONFLICT Posted on November 9, 2020by Gail Tverberg
It takes energy to accomplish any of the activities that we associate with GDP. It takes energy to grow food: human energy, solar energy, and–in today’s world–the many types of energy used to build and power tractors, transport food to markets, and provide cooling for food that needs to be refrigerated. It takes energy to cook food and to smelt metals. It takes energy to heat and air condition offices and to power the internet. Without adequate energy, the world economy would come to a halt. We are hitting energy limits right now. Energy per capita is already shrinking, and it seems likely to shrink further in the future. Reaching a limit produces a conflict problem similar to the one in the game _musical chairs_. This game begins with an equal number of players and chairs. At the start of each round, a chair is removed. The players must then compete for the remaining chairs, and the player who ends the round without a chair is eliminated. There is conflict among players as they fight to obtain one of the available chairs. The conflict within the energy system is somewhat hidden, but the resultis similar.
A current conflict is, “How much energy can we spare to fight COVID-19?” It is obvious that expenditures on masks and vaccines have an impact on the economy. It is less obvious that a cutback in airline flights or in restaurant meals to fight COVID-19 indirectly leads to less energy being produced and consumed, worldwide. In total, the world becomes a poorer place. How is the pain of this reduction in energy consumption per capita to be shared? Is it fair that travel and restaurant workers are disproportionately affected? Worldwide, we are seeing a K shaped recovery: The rich get richer, while the poor getpoorer.
A major issue is that WHILE WE CAN PRINT MONEY, WE CANNOT PRINT THE ENERGY SUPPLIES NEEDED TO RUN THE ECONOMY. As energy supplies deplete, we will increasingly need to “choose our battles.” In the past, humans have been able to win many battles against nature. However, as energy per capita declines in the future, we will be able to win fewer and fewer of these battles against nature, such as our current battle with COVID-19. At some point, we may simply need to let the chips fall where they may. The world economy seems unable to accommodate 7.8 billion people, and we will have no choice but to face this issue. In this post, I will explain some of the issues involved. At the end of the post, I include a video of a panel discussion that I was part of on the topic of “Energy Is the Economy.” The moderator of the panel discussion was Chris Martenson; the other panelists were Richard Heinberg and Art Berman. Continue reading → Posted in Financial Implications| Tagged
COVID , energy consumption, energy
consumption per capita,
energy forecast
FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCTION IS REACHING LIMITS IN A STRANGE WAY Posted on October 15, 2020by Gail Tverberg
Strangely enough, THE LIMIT WE SEEM TO BE REACHING WITH RESPECT TO FOSSIL FUEL EXTRACTION COMES FROM LOW PRICES. At low prices, the extraction of oil, coal, and natural gas becomes unprofitable. Producers go bankrupt, or they voluntarily cut back production in an attempt to force prices higher. As the result of these forces, production tends to fall. THIS LIMIT COMES LONG BEFORE THE LIMIT THAT MANY PEOPLE IMAGINE: THE AMOUNT OF FOSSIL FUELS IN THE GROUND THAT SEEMS TO BE AVAILABLE WITH CURRENT EXTRACTION TECHNIQUES. The last time there was a similar problem was back in 1913, when coal was the predominant fossil fuel used and the United Kingdom was the largest coal producer in the world. The cost of production was rising due to depletion, but coal prices would not rise sufficiently to cover the higher cost of production. As a result, the United Kingdom’s coal production reached its highest level in 1913, the year before World War I started, and began to fall in 1914. Between 1913 and 1945, the world economy was very troubled. There were two world wars, the Spanish Flu pandemic and the Great Depression. My concern is that we are again headed into another very troubled period that could last for many years. The way the energy problems of the period between 1913 and 1945 were resolved was through the rapid ramp-up of oil production. Oil was, as that time, inexpensive to produce and could be sold for a very large multiple of the cost of production. If population is to remain at the current level or possibly grow, we need a similar “energy savior.” Unfortunately, none of the alternatives we are looking at now yield a high enough return relative to the required investment. I recently gave a talk to an engineering group interested in energy research talking about these issues. In this post, I will discuss the slides of this presentation. A PDF of the presentation can be found atthis link
.
Continue reading → Posted in Financial Implications REACHING THE END OF EARLY STIMULUS – WHAT’S AHEAD? Posted on September 23, 2020by Gail Tverberg
Many people thought that COVID-19 would be gone with a short shutdown. They also thought that the world’s economic problems could be cured with a six month “dose” of stimulus. It is increasingly clear that neither of these assumptions is correct. Despite the claims of epidemiologists, our best efforts have never been able to reduce the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases for the world as a whole for any significant period of time. In fact, the latest week seems to be the highest week so far. Figure 1. Chart of worldwide COVID-19 new cases, in chart prepared by Worldometer with data through September 20, 2020. At the same time, the economy, despite all of the stimulus, is not doing very well. Airlines are doing very poorly. The parts of the economy that are dependent upon tourism are having huge problems. This reduces the “upside” of economic recovery, pretty much everywhere, until it can be corrected. Continue reading → Posted in Financial Implications| Tagged
collapse , Covid-19
, limits to growth
, low oil prices
, overshoot
TODAY’S ENERGY PREDICAMENT – A LOOK AT SOME CHARTS Posted on September 1, 2020by Gail Tverberg
Today’s energy predicament is a strange situation that most modelers have never really considered. Let me explain some of the issues I see,using some charts.
IT IS PROBABLY NOT POSSIBLE TO REDUCE CURRENT ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY 80% OR MORE WITHOUT DRAMATICALLY REDUCING POPULATION. A glance at energy consumption per capita for a few countries suggests that cold countries tend to use a lot more energy per person than warm, wet countries. Figure 1. Energy consumption per capita in 2019 in selected countries based on data from BP’s 2020 _Statistical Review of World Energy_. This shouldn’t be a big surprise: Our predecessors in Africa didn’t need much energy. But as humans moved to colder areas, they needed extra warmth, and this required extra energy. The extra energy today is used to build sturdier homes and vehicles, to heat and operate those homes and vehicles, and to build the factories, roads and other structures needed to keep the whole operation going. Saudi Arabia (not shown on Figure 1) is an example of a hot, dry country that uses a lot of energy. Its energy consumption per capita in 2019 (322 GJ per capita) was very close to that of Norway. It needs to keep its population cool, besides running its large oil operation. If the entire world population could adopt the lifestyle of Bangladesh or India, we could indeed get our energy consumption down to a very low level. But this is difficult to do when the climate doesn’t cooperate. This means that if energy usage needs to fall dramatically, population will probably need to fall in areas where heating or air conditioning are essential for living. Continue reading → Posted in Financial Implications,
Introductory Post
| Tagged
energy demand , low oilprice , oil price
, peak oil
WE NEED TO CHANGE OUR COVID-19 STRATEGY Posted on August 10, 2020by Gail Tverberg
We would like to think that we can eliminate COVID-19, but doing so is far from certain. The medical system has not been successful in eliminating HIV/AIDS or influenza; the situation with COVID-19 may besimilar.
We are discovering that people with COVID-19 are extremely hard to identify because a significant share of infections are very mild or completely without symptoms. Testing everyone to find the huge number of hidden cases cannot possibly work worldwide. As long as there is hidden COVID-19 elsewhere in the world, the benefit of identifying everyone with the illness in a particular area is limited. The disease simply bounces back, as soon as there is a reduction in containmentefforts.
Figure 1. One-week average new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Israel, Spain, Belgium and Netherlands. Chart made using data as of August 8, 2020 using an Interactive Visualization available at https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ based on Johns Hopkins University CSSE database. We are also discovering that efforts to contain what is essentially a hidden illness are very damaging to the world economy. Shutdowns in particular lead to many unemployed people and riots. Social distancing requirements can make investments unprofitable. Cutting off air flights leads to a huge loss of tourism and leaves farmers with the problem of how to get their fruit and vegetable crops picked without migrant workers. If COVID-19 is very widespread, contact tracing simply becomes an exercise in frustration. Trying to identify the many asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 is surprisingly difficult. The cost is far higher than the cost of thetesting devices.
At some point, we need to start lowering expectations regarding what can be done. The economy can protect a few members, but not everyone. Instead, emphasis should be on strengthening people’s immune systems. Surprisingly, there seems to be quite a bit that can be done. Higher vitamin D levels seem to be associated with fewer and less severe cases. Better diet, with more fruits and vegetables, is also likely to be helpful from an immunity point of view. Strangely enough, more close social contacts may also be helpful. In the remainder of this post, I will explain a few pieces of the COVID-19 problem, together with my ideas for modifications to ourcurrent strategy.
RECENT NEWS ABOUT COVID-19 HAS BEEN DISTURBINGLY BAD Continue reading → Posted in Financial Implications| Tagged
population growth ,
shutdowns , vaccines, Vitamin D
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