THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. WHAT BIDEN'S NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW IS MISSING Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION — I have a job for the people running the Biden Nuclear Posture Review.. Buried in the Biden fiscal 2022 budget for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is $98.5 million to begin 18 YEARS AFTER THE 9/11 ATTACKS, WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATE Bottom Line Up Front Eighteen years after the al-Qaeda terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the group has evolved and looks much different today than it did nearly two decades ago. The influence of al-Qaeda core and its senior leadership hiding in Pakistan has been reduced, while franchise groups have grown in prominence. The Continue reading "18 Years After the 9/11 Attacks, What is ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

WE KNOW WHAT SPACE WARS WILL LOOK LIKE Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief.He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION — “The United States must now be prepared for conflict to extend to, or even to originate in or from, space.”. That was a statement from Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John FIRST NEW STEPS TO COMBATTING DOMESTIC TERRORISM Javed Ali held senior counterterrorism positions at DHS, the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the National Security Council. He is a Towsley Policymaker in Residence at the University of Michigan. Thomas Warrick was DHS Deputy Assistant for Counterterrorism Policy from August 2008 to June 2019 and is now Director Continue reading "First New Steps to Combatting REPORT: AN ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN'S USE IN ILLICIT FINANCE According to a recent study by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, illicit activity among all cryptocurrencies as a percent of total cryptocurrency activity from 2017 to 2020 was less than 1 percent. For Bitcoin specifically, blockchain analytics firm CipherTrace estimates that illicit activity makes up less than 0.5 percent of total A GLIMPSE OF THE U.S.' NEW NUCLEAR POSTURE Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. In 2002, he and a team of Post reporters won the Pulitzer Prize for national reporting. He also won an Emmy in 1981 and the 2010 Continue reading "A Glimpse of the

U.S.’

THE U.S. NEEDS A STRONGER CYBER DEFENSE AGAINST RUSSIA According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions. The scale and impact brought accusations of a reckless and indiscriminate operation. Some politicians labeled this an act of war, while other commentators

dismissed the

BOOK REVIEW: JAPANESE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE AND GRAND STRATEGY BOOK REVIEW: Japanese Foreign Intelligence and Grand Strategy: From the Cold War to the Abe Era By Brad Williams / Georgetown University Press Reviewed by Stephen C. Mercado The Reviewer – Stephen C. Mercado is an analyst, researcher and translator, who has worked in the Washington area and in East Asia on Asian issues as Continue reading "Book Review: Japanese Foreign Intelligence

THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. WHAT BIDEN'S NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW IS MISSING Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION — I have a job for the people running the Biden Nuclear Posture Review.. Buried in the Biden fiscal 2022 budget for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is $98.5 million to begin 18 YEARS AFTER THE 9/11 ATTACKS, WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATE Bottom Line Up Front Eighteen years after the al-Qaeda terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the group has evolved and looks much different today than it did nearly two decades ago. The influence of al-Qaeda core and its senior leadership hiding in Pakistan has been reduced, while franchise groups have grown in prominence. The Continue reading "18 Years After the 9/11 Attacks, What is ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

WE KNOW WHAT SPACE WARS WILL LOOK LIKE Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief.He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION — “The United States must now be prepared for conflict to extend to, or even to originate in or from, space.”. That was a statement from Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John FIRST NEW STEPS TO COMBATTING DOMESTIC TERRORISM Javed Ali held senior counterterrorism positions at DHS, the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the National Security Council. He is a Towsley Policymaker in Residence at the University of Michigan. Thomas Warrick was DHS Deputy Assistant for Counterterrorism Policy from August 2008 to June 2019 and is now Director Continue reading "First New Steps to Combatting REPORT: AN ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN'S USE IN ILLICIT FINANCE According to a recent study by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, illicit activity among all cryptocurrencies as a percent of total cryptocurrency activity from 2017 to 2020 was less than 1 percent. For Bitcoin specifically, blockchain analytics firm CipherTrace estimates that illicit activity makes up less than 0.5 percent of total A GLIMPSE OF THE U.S.' NEW NUCLEAR POSTURE Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. In 2002, he and a team of Post reporters won the Pulitzer Prize for national reporting. He also won an Emmy in 1981 and the 2010 Continue reading "A Glimpse of the

U.S.’

THE U.S. NEEDS A STRONGER CYBER DEFENSE AGAINST RUSSIA According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions. The scale and impact brought accusations of a reckless and indiscriminate operation. Some politicians labeled this an act of war, while other commentators

dismissed the

BOOK REVIEW: JAPANESE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE AND GRAND STRATEGY BOOK REVIEW: Japanese Foreign Intelligence and Grand Strategy: From the Cold War to the Abe Era By Brad Williams / Georgetown University Press Reviewed by Stephen C. Mercado The Reviewer – Stephen C. Mercado is an analyst, researcher and translator, who has worked in the Washington area and in East Asia on Asian issues as Continue reading "Book Review: Japanese Foreign Intelligence USHERING IN A TRANSPARENT REVOLUTION IN CYBERSECURITY Thomas Warrick was DHS Deputy Assistant for Counterterrorism Policy from August 2008 to June 2019 and is now Director of the Future of DHS Project at the Atlantic Council. Javed Ali held senior counterterrorism positions at DHS, the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the National Security Council. He is a Continue reading "Ushering in a Transparent Revolution in

WHY THE CHINA

When the PRC decides to move on Taiwan, it is unlikely to move in a manner that makes a US decision on intervention clear cut. Should China decide, initially at least, against a full-scale invasion of that island nation, it could instead opt to try to “win without fighting.” Beijing might do THE CIPHER BRIEF OPEN SOURCE REPORT FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 11 Get a daily rundown of the top security stories delivered to your inbox Monday through Friday with exclusive briefs and columns on what matters most to you and your organization. A GLIMPSE OF THE U.S.' NEW NUCLEAR POSTURE Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. In 2002, he and a team of Post reporters won the Pulitzer Prize for national reporting. He also won an Emmy in 1981 and the 2010 Continue reading "A Glimpse of the

U.S.’

THE DEVASTATING IMPACT OF COVID-19 IN THE MIDDLE EAST COVID-19 has laid bare the fissures in Middle East societies. Regimes have exploited the onslaught of the pandemic to favor the affluent and ignore the marginalized segments of society, which have been hit very hard by the pandemic. Because of their ethnic, sectarian, and geographic marginalization, these groups have been deprived of

adequate

CONGRESS IS OVERWHELMED. NOW WHAT? BOOK REVIEW: Congress Overwhelmed – The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform By Editors Timothy M. LaPira, Lee Drutman and Kevin Kosar / University of Chicago Press Reviewed by Jason U. Manosevitz The Reviewer – Jason U. Manosevitz is an officer in the Intelligence Community with 16 years of experience covering military and political 18 YEARS AFTER THE 9/11 ATTACKS, WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATE Bottom Line Up Front Eighteen years after the al-Qaeda terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the group has evolved and looks much different today than it did nearly two decades ago. The influence of al-Qaeda core and its senior leadership hiding in Pakistan has been reduced, while franchise groups have grown in prominence. The Continue reading "18 Years After the 9/11 Attacks, What is

WHY THE CHINA

The other is a revisionist state, seeking to restore strength and influence lost with the collapse of empire. Yet, according to the US National Intelligence Council (NIC), China and Russia are “likely to remain strongly aligned as long as (Vladimir) Putin and XI (Jinping) remain in power.”. They have, the NIC judged, formed a THE OPIOID CRISIS BECOMES A NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to officially declare the American opioid epidemic a public health emergency Thursday, as part of an effort to combat a crisis that is killing an estimated 142 Americans a day. Reports, however, indicate he will not go as far as classifying it a national emergency, meaning no new funding Continue reading "The Opioid Crisis Becomes a National Security

NORMAN T. ROULE

Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017. As NIM-I, he was the principal Intelligence Community (IC) official responsible for overseeing all

THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. MULTILATERALISM AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA The Cipher Brief’s Academic Incubator partners with national security-focused programs from colleges and Universities across the country to share the thinking of the next generation of national security leaders. Savannah Nelson is a master’s student in the Global and National Security program at the University of New Mexico. She earned her B.A. in International Studies and Spanish THE USE OF DISINFORMATION IN THE BRITISH ELECTION Bottom Line Up Front On the heels of the London Bridge terrorist attack and the looming Brexit process, tensions were high as British citizens went to the polls for the December 12, 2019 UK election. The Russian Federation, as well as organizations, individuals and UK-based entities, attempted to influence the British election by spreading Continue reading "The Use of Disinformation in the

KARYN ELIOT

Karyn Eliot is a retired CIA senior executive with extensive experience in US national security science and technology programs, intelligence operations, acquisitions, policy, and strategic industry partnerships. She established Amplio Partners, LLC to continue supporting government and commercial partner engagement across the national security community. Having a global perspective resulting

GWYN ARMFIELD

Brigadier General Gwyn Armfield (Ret.) recently completed nearly three decades of service in the US Air Force. He is the founder of RGA Consulting Group which advises clients on leadership, risk management and technology development. During his time in the military, he served as the U.S. Central Command Vice Director for Strategy and Plans, Deputy Commanding General for U.S. and Coalition

LAUREN ZABIEREK

Lauren Zabierek is the Executive Director of the Cyber Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She comes to this role as a 2019 graduate of the Kennedy School’s mid-career MPA program. Lauren served as an intelligence officer in the United States Air Force at the beginning of her career. Later, as a civilian intelligence analyst with the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency THE U.S. NEEDS A STRONGER CYBER DEFENSE AGAINST RUSSIA According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions. The scale and impact brought accusations of a reckless and indiscriminate operation. Some politicians labeled this an act of war, while other commentators

dismissed the

ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

NICK FISHWICK

Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Nick Fishwick also spent three years on a

BRIGHAM BECHTEL

Brigham Bechtel served over 30 years in the United States intelligence community. A Navy veteran who spent time as an enlisted and commissioned naval cryptologist, Brigham retired from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in 2017, after over 26 years as a staff officer working as both an analyst and then in operations with positions as Chief of Station and of bases in south Asia, Africa, and

THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. MULTILATERALISM AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA The Cipher Brief’s Academic Incubator partners with national security-focused programs from colleges and Universities across the country to share the thinking of the next generation of national security leaders. Savannah Nelson is a master’s student in the Global and National Security program at the University of New Mexico. She earned her B.A. in International Studies and Spanish THE USE OF DISINFORMATION IN THE BRITISH ELECTION Bottom Line Up Front On the heels of the London Bridge terrorist attack and the looming Brexit process, tensions were high as British citizens went to the polls for the December 12, 2019 UK election. The Russian Federation, as well as organizations, individuals and UK-based entities, attempted to influence the British election by spreading Continue reading "The Use of Disinformation in the

KARYN ELIOT

Karyn Eliot is a retired CIA senior executive with extensive experience in US national security science and technology programs, intelligence operations, acquisitions, policy, and strategic industry partnerships. She established Amplio Partners, LLC to continue supporting government and commercial partner engagement across the national security community. Having a global perspective resulting

GWYN ARMFIELD

Brigadier General Gwyn Armfield (Ret.) recently completed nearly three decades of service in the US Air Force. He is the founder of RGA Consulting Group which advises clients on leadership, risk management and technology development. During his time in the military, he served as the U.S. Central Command Vice Director for Strategy and Plans, Deputy Commanding General for U.S. and Coalition

LAUREN ZABIEREK

Lauren Zabierek is the Executive Director of the Cyber Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She comes to this role as a 2019 graduate of the Kennedy School’s mid-career MPA program. Lauren served as an intelligence officer in the United States Air Force at the beginning of her career. Later, as a civilian intelligence analyst with the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency THE U.S. NEEDS A STRONGER CYBER DEFENSE AGAINST RUSSIA According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions. The scale and impact brought accusations of a reckless and indiscriminate operation. Some politicians labeled this an act of war, while other commentators

dismissed the

ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

NICK FISHWICK

Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Nick Fishwick also spent three years on a

BRIGHAM BECHTEL

Brigham Bechtel served over 30 years in the United States intelligence community. A Navy veteran who spent time as an enlisted and commissioned naval cryptologist, Brigham retired from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in 2017, after over 26 years as a staff officer working as both an analyst and then in operations with positions as Chief of Station and of bases in south Asia, Africa, and USHERING IN A TRANSPARENT REVOLUTION IN CYBERSECURITY Thomas Warrick was DHS Deputy Assistant for Counterterrorism Policy from August 2008 to June 2019 and is now Director of the Future of DHS Project at the Atlantic Council. Javed Ali held senior counterterrorism positions at DHS, the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the National Security Council. He is a Continue reading "Ushering in a Transparent Revolution in CONGRESS IS OVERWHELMED. NOW WHAT? BOOK REVIEW: Congress Overwhelmed – The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform By Editors Timothy M. LaPira, Lee Drutman and Kevin Kosar / University of Chicago Press Reviewed by Jason U. Manosevitz The Reviewer – Jason U. Manosevitz is an officer in the Intelligence Community with 16 years of experience covering military and political DOING BUSINESS WITH HACKERS, TERRORISTS AND DICTATORS Dr. Kenneth Dekleva served as a Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist (including 5 years at the U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russian Federation) with the U.S. Dept. of State during 2002-2016, and is currently Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Director, Psychiatry-Medicine Integration, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX. The views expressed are entirely his own and do not HOW WILL COVID-19 IMPACT U.S. MILITARY READINESS? Bottom Line Up Front COVID-19 has required the U.S. military to shift personnel and materiel to a domestic mandate to augment civilian state and federal agencies’ capabilities, leaving U.S. entities overseas more vulnerable than ever. NATO’s cancellation of Defender Europe-20 comes at a time of great uncertainty in Europe as Russian Federation

adventurism looms

US APPROACH TOWARD YEMEN NEEDS MORE WORK Mark D. Wallace is CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations for Management and Reform. Cipher Brief Expert Norman T. Roule is the former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and a senior adviser to UANI.. OPINION — The Biden Administration asserted that its decision to revoke the REPORT: AN ANALYSIS OF BITCOIN'S USE IN ILLICIT FINANCE According to a recent study by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, illicit activity among all cryptocurrencies as a percent of total cryptocurrency activity from 2017 to 2020 was less than 1 percent. For Bitcoin specifically, blockchain analytics firm CipherTrace estimates that illicit activity makes up less than 0.5 percent of total THE DEVASTATING IMPACT OF COVID-19 IN THE MIDDLE EAST COVID-19 has laid bare the fissures in Middle East societies. Regimes have exploited the onslaught of the pandemic to favor the affluent and ignore the marginalized segments of society, which have been hit very hard by the pandemic. Because of their ethnic, sectarian, and geographic marginalization, these groups have been deprived of

adequate

WHY THE CHINA

When the PRC decides to move on Taiwan, it is unlikely to move in a manner that makes a US decision on intervention clear cut. Should China decide, initially at least, against a full-scale invasion of that island nation, it could instead opt to try to “win without fighting.” Beijing might do CLARITY IN CRISIS: LEADERSHIP LESSONS FROM THE CIA BOOK REVIEW: Clarity in Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the CIA By Marc Polymeropoulos / HarperCollins Reviewed by Ken Dilanian The Reviewer: Ken Dilanian is the intelligence and national security correspondent for NBC News. He previously covered the intelligence community for the Associated Press and the Los Angeles Times. He covered the Iraq war from the

NORMAN T. ROULE

Norman T. Roule served for 34-years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017. As NIM-I, he was the principal Intelligence Community (IC) official responsible for overseeing all

THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable.

NICK FISHWICK

Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Nick Fishwick also spent three years on a

GWYN ARMFIELD

Brigadier General Gwyn Armfield (Ret.) recently completed nearly three decades of service in the US Air Force. He is the founder of RGA Consulting Group which advises clients on leadership, risk management and technology development. During his time in the military, he served as the U.S. Central Command Vice Director for Strategy and Plans, Deputy Commanding General for U.S. and Coalition THE USE OF DISINFORMATION IN THE BRITISH ELECTION Bottom Line Up Front On the heels of the London Bridge terrorist attack and the looming Brexit process, tensions were high as British citizens went to the polls for the December 12, 2019 UK election. The Russian Federation, as well as organizations, individuals and UK-based entities, attempted to influence the British election by spreading Continue reading "The Use of Disinformation in the

ALEX CRESWELL

Alex left the British Foreign Service in 2020 after 27 years in a variety of National Security roles, often including a technology angle. He has led an operational division of GCHQ and has served in the Cabinet Office, directing the team of analysts (the Joint Intelligence Organisation) which provides the British Prime Minister’s daily briefing and strategic assessments for the NSC.

From

KARYN ELIOT

Karyn Eliot is a retired CIA senior executive with extensive experience in US national security science and technology programs, intelligence operations, acquisitions, policy, and strategic industry partnerships. She established Amplio Partners, LLC to continue supporting government and commercial partner engagement across the national security community. Having a global perspective resulting

LAUREN ZABIEREK

Lauren Zabierek is the Executive Director of the Cyber Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She comes to this role as a 2019 graduate of the Kennedy School’s mid-career MPA program. Lauren served as an intelligence officer in the United States Air Force at the beginning of her career. Later, as a civilian intelligence analyst with the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency THE U.S. NEEDS A STRONGER CYBER DEFENSE AGAINST RUSSIA According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions. The scale and impact brought accusations of a reckless and indiscriminate operation. Some politicians labeled this an act of war, while other commentators

dismissed the

ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

ROB LIVELY – THE CIPHER BRIEF Rob Lively retired after 28 years of military service, as the Command Sergeants Major of a Special Missions Unit within The United States Army Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. As an experienced and proven leader, Rob has operated and led teams and organizations in the most demanding, diverse, and challenging environments. Rob was able to lead and influence from the

THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable.

NICK FISHWICK

Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Nick Fishwick also spent three years on a

GWYN ARMFIELD

Brigadier General Gwyn Armfield (Ret.) recently completed nearly three decades of service in the US Air Force. He is the founder of RGA Consulting Group which advises clients on leadership, risk management and technology development. During his time in the military, he served as the U.S. Central Command Vice Director for Strategy and Plans, Deputy Commanding General for U.S. and Coalition THE USE OF DISINFORMATION IN THE BRITISH ELECTION Bottom Line Up Front On the heels of the London Bridge terrorist attack and the looming Brexit process, tensions were high as British citizens went to the polls for the December 12, 2019 UK election. The Russian Federation, as well as organizations, individuals and UK-based entities, attempted to influence the British election by spreading Continue reading "The Use of Disinformation in the

ALEX CRESWELL

Alex left the British Foreign Service in 2020 after 27 years in a variety of National Security roles, often including a technology angle. He has led an operational division of GCHQ and has served in the Cabinet Office, directing the team of analysts (the Joint Intelligence Organisation) which provides the British Prime Minister’s daily briefing and strategic assessments for the NSC.

From

KARYN ELIOT

Karyn Eliot is a retired CIA senior executive with extensive experience in US national security science and technology programs, intelligence operations, acquisitions, policy, and strategic industry partnerships. She established Amplio Partners, LLC to continue supporting government and commercial partner engagement across the national security community. Having a global perspective resulting

LAUREN ZABIEREK

Lauren Zabierek is the Executive Director of the Cyber Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She comes to this role as a 2019 graduate of the Kennedy School’s mid-career MPA program. Lauren served as an intelligence officer in the United States Air Force at the beginning of her career. Later, as a civilian intelligence analyst with the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency THE U.S. NEEDS A STRONGER CYBER DEFENSE AGAINST RUSSIA According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions. The scale and impact brought accusations of a reckless and indiscriminate operation. Some politicians labeled this an act of war, while other commentators

dismissed the

ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

ROB LIVELY – THE CIPHER BRIEF Rob Lively retired after 28 years of military service, as the Command Sergeants Major of a Special Missions Unit within The United States Army Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. As an experienced and proven leader, Rob has operated and led teams and organizations in the most demanding, diverse, and challenging environments. Rob was able to lead and influence from the DOING BUSINESS WITH HACKERS, TERRORISTS AND DICTATORS Dr. Kenneth Dekleva served as a Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist (including 5 years at the U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russian Federation) with the U.S. Dept. of State during 2002-2016, and is currently Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Director, Psychiatry-Medicine Integration, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX. The views expressed are entirely his own and do not WHAT BIDEN'S NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW IS MISSING 1 day ago · Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION — I have a job for the people running the Biden Nuclear Posture Review.. Buried in the Biden fiscal 2022 budget for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is $98.5 million to begin MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: TOWARD A GOVERNMENT DATA As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors, how it is organizing to win, what a government ecosystem looks like and the impact that international collaboration will have in the

future.

WHY THE CHINA

1 day ago · In 1937, Winston Churchill contrasted the “two rival religions” of Nazism and Communism then afflicting the world. Those fascist and communist “infernal twins”, he wrote, “imagine themselves as exact opposites” but are, in fact “similar in all essentials”, breeding in reaction to each other. Today’s ‘infernal twins’ – China and Russia – are ostensible great

power

HOW WILL COVID-19 IMPACT U.S. MILITARY READINESS? Bottom Line Up Front COVID-19 has required the U.S. military to shift personnel and materiel to a domestic mandate to augment civilian state and federal agencies’ capabilities, leaving U.S. entities overseas more vulnerable than ever. NATO’s cancellation of Defender Europe-20 comes at a time of great uncertainty in Europe as Russian Federation

adventurism looms

CONGRESS IS OVERWHELMED. NOW WHAT? 1 day ago · BOOK REVIEW: Congress Overwhelmed – The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform By Editors Timothy M. LaPira, Lee Drutman and Kevin Kosar / University of Chicago Press Reviewed by Jason U. Manosevitz The Reviewer – Jason U. Manosevitz is an officer in the Intelligence Community with 16 years of experience covering military and political MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: AMBITIONS AND THREAT VECTORS On 25 September 2017, the board of UK-based Imagination Technologies, founded in 1985 (and listed on the LSE in 1994), agreed to a take-over by a Palo Alto-based, Cayman Island-registered private equity firm named Canyon Bridge. The UK’s Guardian newspaper described Imagination as a global leader in designing graphics processors found in Smart phones and Continue reading CONGRESS OVERWHELMED Robert Grenier is an author, speaker, and Chairman of ERG Partners, a boutique investment bank. He was 27 years a CIA spy in the Middle East and South Asia, where he was Station Chief for Pakistan and Afghanistan on 9/11, and CIA Mission Manager for Iraq during the 2003

invasion.

MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: ORGANIZING TO WIN As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors, how it is organizing to win, what a government ecosystem looks like and the impact that international collaboration will have in the

future.

WE KNOW WHAT SPACE WARS WILL LOOK LIKE Hill said, “First, we are building a comprehensive military advantage in space. Notable here is the work of the USSF (U.S. Space Force) and the Space Development Agency to field assured space capabilities and capabilities that counter hostile use of space, as well as the USSF’s efforts to develop the military doctrinal foundations of military space power and the associated space war

THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable.

NICK FISHWICK

Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Nick Fishwick also spent three years on a

GWYN ARMFIELD

Brigadier General Gwyn Armfield (Ret.) recently completed nearly three decades of service in the US Air Force. He is the founder of RGA Consulting Group which advises clients on leadership, risk management and technology development. During his time in the military, he served as the U.S. Central Command Vice Director for Strategy and Plans, Deputy Commanding General for U.S. and Coalition

KARYN ELIOT

Karyn Eliot is a retired CIA senior executive with extensive experience in US national security science and technology programs, intelligence operations, acquisitions, policy, and strategic industry partnerships. She established Amplio Partners, LLC to continue supporting government and commercial partner engagement across the national security community. Having a global perspective resulting

ALEX CRESWELL

Alex left the British Foreign Service in 2020 after 27 years in a variety of National Security roles, often including a technology angle. He has led an operational division of GCHQ and has served in the Cabinet Office, directing the team of analysts (the Joint Intelligence Organisation) which provides the British Prime Minister’s daily briefing and strategic assessments for the NSC.

From

THE USE OF DISINFORMATION IN THE BRITISH ELECTION Bottom Line Up Front On the heels of the London Bridge terrorist attack and the looming Brexit process, tensions were high as British citizens went to the polls for the December 12, 2019 UK election. The Russian Federation, as well as organizations, individuals and UK-based entities, attempted to influence the British election by spreading Continue reading "The Use of Disinformation in the

LAUREN ZABIEREK

Lauren Zabierek is the Executive Director of the Cyber Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She comes to this role as a 2019 graduate of the Kennedy School’s mid-career MPA program. Lauren served as an intelligence officer in the United States Air Force at the beginning of her career. Later, as a civilian intelligence analyst with the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency THE U.S. NEEDS A STRONGER CYBER DEFENSE AGAINST RUSSIA According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions. The scale and impact brought accusations of a reckless and indiscriminate operation. Some politicians labeled this an act of war, while other commentators

dismissed the

ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

ROB LIVELY – THE CIPHER BRIEF Rob Lively retired after 28 years of military service, as the Command Sergeants Major of a Special Missions Unit within The United States Army Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. As an experienced and proven leader, Rob has operated and led teams and organizations in the most demanding, diverse, and challenging environments. Rob was able to lead and influence from the

THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable.

NICK FISHWICK

Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Nick Fishwick also spent three years on a

GWYN ARMFIELD

Brigadier General Gwyn Armfield (Ret.) recently completed nearly three decades of service in the US Air Force. He is the founder of RGA Consulting Group which advises clients on leadership, risk management and technology development. During his time in the military, he served as the U.S. Central Command Vice Director for Strategy and Plans, Deputy Commanding General for U.S. and Coalition

KARYN ELIOT

Karyn Eliot is a retired CIA senior executive with extensive experience in US national security science and technology programs, intelligence operations, acquisitions, policy, and strategic industry partnerships. She established Amplio Partners, LLC to continue supporting government and commercial partner engagement across the national security community. Having a global perspective resulting

ALEX CRESWELL

Alex left the British Foreign Service in 2020 after 27 years in a variety of National Security roles, often including a technology angle. He has led an operational division of GCHQ and has served in the Cabinet Office, directing the team of analysts (the Joint Intelligence Organisation) which provides the British Prime Minister’s daily briefing and strategic assessments for the NSC.

From

THE USE OF DISINFORMATION IN THE BRITISH ELECTION Bottom Line Up Front On the heels of the London Bridge terrorist attack and the looming Brexit process, tensions were high as British citizens went to the polls for the December 12, 2019 UK election. The Russian Federation, as well as organizations, individuals and UK-based entities, attempted to influence the British election by spreading Continue reading "The Use of Disinformation in the

LAUREN ZABIEREK

Lauren Zabierek is the Executive Director of the Cyber Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She comes to this role as a 2019 graduate of the Kennedy School’s mid-career MPA program. Lauren served as an intelligence officer in the United States Air Force at the beginning of her career. Later, as a civilian intelligence analyst with the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency THE U.S. NEEDS A STRONGER CYBER DEFENSE AGAINST RUSSIA According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions. The scale and impact brought accusations of a reckless and indiscriminate operation. Some politicians labeled this an act of war, while other commentators

dismissed the

ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

ROB LIVELY – THE CIPHER BRIEF Rob Lively retired after 28 years of military service, as the Command Sergeants Major of a Special Missions Unit within The United States Army Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. As an experienced and proven leader, Rob has operated and led teams and organizations in the most demanding, diverse, and challenging environments. Rob was able to lead and influence from the DOING BUSINESS WITH HACKERS, TERRORISTS AND DICTATORS 1 day ago · Dr. Kenneth Dekleva served as a Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist (including 5 years at the U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russian Federation) with the U.S. Dept. of State during 2002-2016, and is currently Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Director, Psychiatry-Medicine Integration, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX. The views expressed are entirely his own and do not WHAT BIDEN'S NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW IS MISSING 17 hours ago · Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION — I have a job for the people running the Biden Nuclear Posture Review.. Buried in the Biden fiscal 2022 budget for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is $98.5 million to

begin

MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: TOWARD A GOVERNMENT DATA As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors, how it is organizing to win, what a government ecosystem looks like and the impact that international collaboration will have in the

future.

WHY THE CHINA

17 hours ago · In 1937, Winston Churchill contrasted the “two rival religions” of Nazism and Communism then afflicting the world. Those fascist and communist “infernal twins”, he wrote, “imagine themselves as exact opposites” but are, in fact “similar in all essentials”, breeding in reaction to each other. Today’s ‘infernal twins’ – China and Russia – are ostensible great

power

CONGRESS IS OVERWHELMED. NOW WHAT? 17 hours ago · BOOK REVIEW: Congress Overwhelmed – The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform By Editors Timothy M. LaPira, Lee Drutman and Kevin Kosar / University of Chicago Press Reviewed by Jason U. Manosevitz The Reviewer – Jason U. Manosevitz is an officer in the Intelligence Community with 16 years of experience covering military and political HOW WILL COVID-19 IMPACT U.S. MILITARY READINESS? Bottom Line Up Front COVID-19 has required the U.S. military to shift personnel and materiel to a domestic mandate to augment civilian state and federal agencies’ capabilities, leaving U.S. entities overseas more vulnerable than ever. NATO’s cancellation of Defender Europe-20 comes at a time of great uncertainty in Europe as Russian Federation

adventurism looms

MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: AMBITIONS AND THREAT VECTORS On 25 September 2017, the board of UK-based Imagination Technologies, founded in 1985 (and listed on the LSE in 1994), agreed to a take-over by a Palo Alto-based, Cayman Island-registered private equity firm named Canyon Bridge. The UK’s Guardian newspaper described Imagination as a global leader in designing graphics processors found in Smart phones and Continue reading CONGRESS OVERWHELMED Robert Grenier is an author, speaker, and Chairman of ERG Partners, a boutique investment bank. He was 27 years a CIA spy in the Middle East and South Asia, where he was Station Chief for Pakistan and Afghanistan on 9/11, and CIA Mission Manager for Iraq during the 2003

invasion.

MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: ORGANIZING TO WIN As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors, how it is organizing to win, what a government ecosystem looks like and the impact that international collaboration will have in the

future.

WE KNOW WHAT SPACE WARS WILL LOOK LIKE Hill said, “First, we are building a comprehensive military advantage in space. Notable here is the work of the USSF (U.S. Space Force) and the Space Development Agency to field assured space capabilities and capabilities that counter hostile use of space, as well as the USSF’s efforts to develop the military doctrinal foundations of military space power and the associated space war

THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. JOHN NIXON – THE CIPHER BRIEF John Nixon was a senior leadership analyst with the CIA from 1998 to 2011. He did several tours in Iraq and was recognized by a number of federal agencies for his contribution to the war effort. During his time with the CIA, Nixon regularly wrote for, and briefed, the most senior levels of the US government. He also taught leadership analysis to the new generation of analysts coming into the

KARYN ELIOT

Karyn Eliot is a retired CIA senior executive with extensive experience in US national security science and technology programs, intelligence operations, acquisitions, policy, and strategic industry partnerships. She established Amplio Partners, LLC to continue supporting government and commercial partner engagement across the national security community. Having a global perspective resulting

NICK FISHWICK

Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Nick Fishwick also spent three years on a 18 YEARS AFTER THE 9/11 ATTACKS, WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATE Bottom Line Up Front Eighteen years after the al-Qaeda terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the group has evolved and looks much different today than it did nearly two decades ago. The influence of al-Qaeda core and its senior leadership hiding in Pakistan has been reduced, while franchise groups have grown in prominence. The Continue reading "18 Years After the 9/11 Attacks, What is

GWYN ARMFIELD

Brigadier General Gwyn Armfield (Ret.) recently completed nearly three decades of service in the US Air Force. He is the founder of RGA Consulting Group which advises clients on leadership, risk management and technology development. During his time in the military, he served as the U.S. Central Command Vice Director for Strategy and Plans, Deputy Commanding General for U.S. and Coalition THE GLOBALIZATION OF LOCAL PROTESTS: THE CASE OF FRANCE’S Bottom Line Up Front For the ninth weekend in a row, protesters gathered in massive numbers in Paris and other French cities as part of the ‘Yellow Vests’ protests. On January 14, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed a desire to launch a months-long ‘national dialogue’ on issues raised by the gilets jaunes. What was once Continue reading "The Globalization of Local Protests

BRIGHAM BECHTEL

Brigham Bechtel served over 30 years in the United States intelligence community. A Navy veteran who spent time as an enlisted and commissioned naval cryptologist, Brigham retired from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in 2017, after over 26 years as a staff officer working as both an analyst and then in operations with positions as Chief of Station and of bases in south Asia, Africa, and ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

DAMIEN SPLEETERS

Damien Spleeters is an investigator for Conflict Armament Research (CAR). Since July 2014, he has played a key role in CAR’s investigations into weapons used by the Islamic State (IS) group in Iraq and Syria. Since 2015, Spleeters has headed CAR’s Iraq operations, running field missions along the IS frontline, from Fallujah and Ramadi, to the ongoing battle for Mosul. He has a

background

THE CIPHER BRIEF

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00. Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. JOHN NIXON – THE CIPHER BRIEF John Nixon was a senior leadership analyst with the CIA from 1998 to 2011. He did several tours in Iraq and was recognized by a number of federal agencies for his contribution to the war effort. During his time with the CIA, Nixon regularly wrote for, and briefed, the most senior levels of the US government. He also taught leadership analysis to the new generation of analysts coming into the

KARYN ELIOT

Karyn Eliot is a retired CIA senior executive with extensive experience in US national security science and technology programs, intelligence operations, acquisitions, policy, and strategic industry partnerships. She established Amplio Partners, LLC to continue supporting government and commercial partner engagement across the national security community. Having a global perspective resulting

NICK FISHWICK

Nick Fishwick CMG retired in 2012 after nearly thirty years in the British Foreign Service. He did postings in Lagos, Istanbul and Kabul. His responsibilities in London included director of security and, after returning from Afghanistan in 2007, director for counter-terrorism. His final role was as director general for international operations. Nick Fishwick also spent three years on a 18 YEARS AFTER THE 9/11 ATTACKS, WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATE Bottom Line Up Front Eighteen years after the al-Qaeda terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the group has evolved and looks much different today than it did nearly two decades ago. The influence of al-Qaeda core and its senior leadership hiding in Pakistan has been reduced, while franchise groups have grown in prominence. The Continue reading "18 Years After the 9/11 Attacks, What is

GWYN ARMFIELD

Brigadier General Gwyn Armfield (Ret.) recently completed nearly three decades of service in the US Air Force. He is the founder of RGA Consulting Group which advises clients on leadership, risk management and technology development. During his time in the military, he served as the U.S. Central Command Vice Director for Strategy and Plans, Deputy Commanding General for U.S. and Coalition THE GLOBALIZATION OF LOCAL PROTESTS: THE CASE OF FRANCE’S Bottom Line Up Front For the ninth weekend in a row, protesters gathered in massive numbers in Paris and other French cities as part of the ‘Yellow Vests’ protests. On January 14, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed a desire to launch a months-long ‘national dialogue’ on issues raised by the gilets jaunes. What was once Continue reading "The Globalization of Local Protests

BRIGHAM BECHTEL

Brigham Bechtel served over 30 years in the United States intelligence community. A Navy veteran who spent time as an enlisted and commissioned naval cryptologist, Brigham retired from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in 2017, after over 26 years as a staff officer working as both an analyst and then in operations with positions as Chief of Station and of bases in south Asia, Africa, and ON NUCLEAR: IRAN AND NORTH KOREA ARE A PACKAGE DEAL OPINION — The Biden administration has begun cautious exploratory talks with Iran and other signatories to revive the 2015 agreement that limited Tehran’s nuclear work. As a practical matter, the U.S. has to tackle nuclear issues one at a time, but it is very hard to separate Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions from those of North

Korea.

DAMIEN SPLEETERS

Damien Spleeters is an investigator for Conflict Armament Research (CAR). Since July 2014, he has played a key role in CAR’s investigations into weapons used by the Islamic State (IS) group in Iraq and Syria. Since 2015, Spleeters has headed CAR’s Iraq operations, running field missions along the IS frontline, from Fallujah and Ramadi, to the ongoing battle for Mosul. He has a

background

MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: TOWARD A GOVERNMENT DATA As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors, how it is organizing to win, what a government ecosystem looks like and the impact that international collaboration will have in the

future.

MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors, how it is organizing to win, what a government ecosystem looks like and the impact that international collaboration will have in the

future.

WHAT BIDEN'S NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW IS MISSING 7 hours ago · Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION — I have a job for the people running the Biden Nuclear Posture Review.. Buried in the Biden fiscal 2022 budget for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is $98.5 million to

begin

CONGRESS IS OVERWHELMED. NOW WHAT? 7 hours ago · BOOK REVIEW: Congress Overwhelmed – The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform By Editors Timothy M. LaPira, Lee Drutman and Kevin Kosar / University of Chicago Press Reviewed by Jason U. Manosevitz The Reviewer – Jason U. Manosevitz is an officer in the Intelligence Community with 16 years of experience covering military and political MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: AMBITIONS AND THREAT VECTORS On 25 September 2017, the board of UK-based Imagination Technologies, founded in 1985 (and listed on the LSE in 1994), agreed to a take-over by a Palo Alto-based, Cayman Island-registered private equity firm named Canyon Bridge. The UK’s Guardian newspaper described Imagination as a global leader in designing graphics processors found in Smart phones and Continue reading CONGRESS OVERWHELMED Robert Grenier is an author, speaker, and Chairman of ERG Partners, a boutique investment bank. He was 27 years a CIA spy in the Middle East and South Asia, where he was Station Chief for Pakistan and Afghanistan on 9/11, and CIA Mission Manager for Iraq during the 2003

invasion.

DOING BUSINESS WITH HACKERS, TERRORISTS AND DICTATORS 1 day ago · Dr. Kenneth Dekleva served as a Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist (including 5 years at the U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russian Federation) with the U.S. Dept. of State during 2002-2016, and is currently Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Director, Psychiatry-Medicine Integration, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX. The views expressed are entirely his own and do not MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: ORGANIZING TO WIN As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors, how it is organizing to win, what a government ecosystem looks like and the impact that international collaboration will have in the

future.

WHY THE CHINA

7 hours ago · In 1937, Winston Churchill contrasted the “two rival religions” of Nazism and Communism then afflicting the world. Those fascist and communist “infernal twins”, he wrote, “imagine themselves as exact opposites” but are, in fact “similar in all essentials”, breeding in reaction to each other. Today’s ‘infernal twins’ – China and Russia – are ostensible great

power

WE KNOW WHAT SPACE WARS WILL LOOK LIKE Hill said, “First, we are building a comprehensive military advantage in space. Notable here is the work of the USSF (U.S. Space Force) and the Space Development Agency to field assured space capabilities and capabilities that counter hostile use of space, as well as the USSF’s efforts to develop the military doctrinal foundations of military space power and the associated space war

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CIPHER BRIEF STORIES MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

__

JUNE 04, 2021 | JAMIE BURNHAM As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors,

...

DEAD DROP: JUNE 4

__

JUNE 04, 2021 | ANONYMOUS WISE MOVE:  As part of their Memorial Day weekend coverage, ABC News’ “This Week” featured a segment about the Wise family who lost two brothers in combat as recounted in the book Three ...

BOOK REVIEW

CLARITY IN CRISIS: LEADERSHIP LESSONS FROM THE CIA

__

JUNE 03, 2021 | CLARITY IN CRISIS BOOK REVIEW: Clarity in Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the CIA By Marc Polymeropoulos / HarperCollins Reviewed by Ken Dilanian The Reviewer:  Ken Dilanian is the intelligence and national security

correspondent ...

MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: TOWARD A GOVERNMENT DATA ECOSYSTEM

__

JUNE 03, 2021 | JAMIE BURNHAM As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors,

...

MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: ORGANIZING TO WIN

__

JUNE 02, 2021 | JAMIE BURNHAM As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors,

...

FINE PRINT

WE KNOW WHAT SPACE WARS WILL LOOK LIKE

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JUNE 01, 2021 | WALTER PINCUS Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION -- ... AFGHANISTAN: LOSERS CAN'T BE CHOOSERS

__

JUNE 01, 2021 | TIM WILLASEY-WILSEY Bottom Line Up Front: There are indications that the Taliban have no intention of reaching a compromise and believe they can take over Afghanistan shortly after the US withdrawal. Comparisons ...

ACADEMIC INCUBATOR

MULTILATERALISM AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

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MAY 31, 2021 | SAVANNAH NELSON The Cipher Brief’s Academic Incubator partners with national security-focused programs from colleges and Universities across the country to share the thinking of the next generation of national security leaders. Savannah Nelson is ...

ACADEMIC INCUBATOR

THE COST OF INACTION IN MYANMAR

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MAY 31, 2021 | CHRISTOPHER KERNAN-SCHMIDT The Cipher Brief’s Academic Incubator partners with national security-focused programs from colleges and Universities across the country to share the thinking of the next generation of national security leaders. Christopher Kernan-Schmidt is ... MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: AMBITIONS AND THREAT VECTORS

__

MAY 31, 2021 | JAMIE BURNHAM On 25 September 2017, the board of UK-based Imagination Technologies, founded in 1985 (and listed on the LSE in 1994), agreed to a take-over by a Palo Alto-based, Cayman Island-registered ... WHAT A FUTURE RUSSIA HOUSE MUST LOOK LIKE

__

MAY 26, 2021 | DANIEL HOFFMAN AND PAUL KOLBE Next month’s planned meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to include conversations on Ukraine, COVID-19 and the recent diversion of a flight by ... WHERE THE US-ROK SUMMIT MAY LEAD

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MAY 26, 2021 | JOSEPH DETRANI Cipher Brief Expert Joseph R. DeTrani served as the special envoy for negotiations with North Korea from 2003-2006 and is the former director of the National Counterproliferation Center.  He’s also

...

FINE PRINT

THE U.S. POSITION ON SOUTH KOREAN MISSILES JUST GOT INTERESTING

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MAY 25, 2021 | WALTER PINCUS Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION -- ... HOW THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT LEADS BACK TO US NATIONAL SECURITY

__

MAY 24, 2021 | NORMAN T. ROULE In the Biden Administration’s highest-level face-to-face visit, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling to the Middle East to seize momentum created by last week’s Gaza ceasefire in what could

...

NETANYAHU'S OBSESSION AND THE PALESTINIAN UPRISING

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MAY 20, 2021 | EMILE NAKHLEH Cipher Brief Expert Emile Nakhleh is a retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service Officer and founding director of the CIA’s Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program Office. Nakhleh is currently a Research ...

FINE PRINT

A DUTY TO INFORM THE PUBLIC ON CYBER

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MAY 18, 2021 | WALTER PINCUS Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION -- ... FIRST NEW STEPS TO COMBATTING DOMESTIC TERRORISM

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MAY 14, 2021 | JAVED ALI AND THOMAS S. WARRICK Javed Ali held senior counterterrorism positions at DHS, the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the National Security Council. He is a Towsley Policymaker in Residence ... INTELLIGENCE ON AFGHANISTAN: A DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE TASK

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MAY 12, 2021 | NEIL WILEY AND ROBERT P. ASHLEY Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley, Jr. is former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, where we reported directly to the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security and the ... INTELLIGENCE SHARING IN A COMPLICATED WORLD: THE FUTURE OF FIVE EYES

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MAY 11, 2021 | THE CIPHER BRIEF In the midst of World War II, facing multiple threats in a complicated series of engagements around the world, the US and the UK entered into a highly-secret, trusted agreement ... AN EXPERT BRIEF ON ECONOMIC SECURITY, INVESTMENT AND JURISDICTIONAL

RISK

__

MAY 06, 2021 | NORMAN ROULE A rarely discussed but high impact trend that seems to have been amplified by the COVID-19 virus is affecting investment in countries that have traditionally attracted investors interested in minerals ... HOW TO INTEGRATE CLIMATE IN FUTURE NATIONAL SECURITY

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MAY 04, 2021 | THE CIPHER BRIEF As part of a special series on climate in partnership with The Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Cipher Brief Expert Kristin

Wood, The ...

WHY THE ISTANBUL SUMMIT MAY BE AFGHANISTAN'S LAST CHANCE

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APRIL 30, 2021 | TIM WILLASEY-WILSEY Tim Willasey-Wilsey, Former Senior Member, British FOreign and Commonwealth Office Cipher Brief Expert Tim Willasey-Wilsey served for over 27 years in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. He is

now ...

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MEMBERS-ONLY BRIEFS & ANALYSIS MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

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JUNE 04, 2021 | JAMIE BURNHAM As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors,

...

DEAD DROP: JUNE 4

__

JUNE 04, 2021 | ANONYMOUS WISE MOVE:  As part of their Memorial Day weekend coverage, ABC News’ “This Week” featured a segment about the Wise family who lost two brothers in combat as recounted in the book Three ... MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: TOWARD A GOVERNMENT DATA ECOSYSTEM

__

JUNE 03, 2021 | JAMIE BURNHAM As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors,

...

MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: ORGANIZING TO WIN

__

JUNE 02, 2021 | JAMIE BURNHAM As part of a week-long series focused on Mapping China’s Ambitions, The Cipher Brief is partnering with Harvard Research Fellow and former British diplomat Jamie Burnham to explore China’s threat vectors,

...

AFGHANISTAN: LOSERS CAN'T BE CHOOSERS

__

JUNE 01, 2021 | TIM WILLASEY-WILSEY Bottom Line Up Front: There are indications that the Taliban have no intention of reaching a compromise and believe they can take over Afghanistan shortly after the US withdrawal. Comparisons ... MAPPING CHINA BY THE NUMBERS: AMBITIONS AND THREAT VECTORS

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MAY 31, 2021 | JAMIE BURNHAM On 25 September 2017, the board of UK-based Imagination Technologies, founded in 1985 (and listed on the LSE in 1994), agreed to a take-over by a Palo Alto-based, Cayman Island-registered ... WHAT A FUTURE RUSSIA HOUSE MUST LOOK LIKE

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MAY 26, 2021 | DANIEL HOFFMAN AND PAUL KOLBE Next month’s planned meeting between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to include conversations on Ukraine, COVID-19 and the recent diversion of a flight by ... HOW THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT LEADS BACK TO US NATIONAL SECURITY

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MAY 24, 2021 | NORMAN T. ROULE In the Biden Administration’s highest-level face-to-face visit, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling to the Middle East to seize momentum created by last week’s Gaza ceasefire in what could

...

INTELLIGENCE SHARING IN A COMPLICATED WORLD: THE FUTURE OF FIVE EYES

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MAY 11, 2021 | THE CIPHER BRIEF In the midst of World War II, facing multiple threats in a complicated series of engagements around the world, the US and the UK entered into a highly-secret, trusted agreement ... AN EXPERT BRIEF ON ECONOMIC SECURITY, INVESTMENT AND JURISDICTIONAL

RISK

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MAY 06, 2021 | NORMAN ROULE A rarely discussed but high impact trend that seems to have been amplified by the COVID-19 virus is affecting investment in countries that have traditionally attracted investors interested in minerals ... HOW TO INTEGRATE CLIMATE IN FUTURE NATIONAL SECURITY

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MAY 04, 2021 | THE CIPHER BRIEF As part of a special series on climate in partnership with The Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Cipher Brief Expert Kristin

Wood, The ...

WHY THE ISTANBUL SUMMIT MAY BE AFGHANISTAN'S LAST CHANCE

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APRIL 30, 2021 | TIM WILLASEY-WILSEY Tim Willasey-Wilsey, Former Senior Member, British FOreign and Commonwealth Office Cipher Brief Expert Tim Willasey-Wilsey served for over 27 years in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. He is

now ...

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COLUMNS AND OP‑EDS

BOOK REVIEW

CLARITY IN CRISIS: LEADERSHIP LESSONS FROM THE CIA JUNE 03, 2021 | CLARITY IN CRISIS BOOK REVIEW: Clarity in Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the CIA By Marc Polymeropoulos / HarperCollins Reviewed by Ken Dilanian The Reviewer:  Ken Dilanian is the intelligence and national security

correspondent ...

FINE PRINT

WE KNOW WHAT SPACE WARS WILL LOOK LIKE JUNE 01, 2021 | WALTER PINCUS Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION -- ...

ACADEMIC INCUBATOR

MULTILATERALISM AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MAY 31, 2021 | SAVANNAH NELSON The Cipher Brief’s Academic Incubator partners with national security-focused programs from colleges and Universities across the country to share the thinking of the next generation of national security leaders. Savannah Nelson is ...

ACADEMIC INCUBATOR

THE COST OF INACTION IN MYANMAR MAY 31, 2021 | CHRISTOPHER KERNAN-SCHMIDT The Cipher Brief’s Academic Incubator partners with national security-focused programs from colleges and Universities across the country to share the thinking of the next generation of national security leaders. Christopher Kernan-Schmidt is ... WHERE THE US-ROK SUMMIT MAY LEAD MAY 26, 2021 | JOSEPH DETRANI Cipher Brief Expert Joseph R. DeTrani served as the special envoy for negotiations with North Korea from 2003-2006 and is the former director of the National Counterproliferation Center.  He’s also

...

FINE PRINT

THE U.S. POSITION ON SOUTH KOREAN MISSILES JUST GOT INTERESTING MAY 25, 2021 | WALTER PINCUS Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION -- ... NETANYAHU'S OBSESSION AND THE PALESTINIAN UPRISING MAY 20, 2021 | EMILE NAKHLEH Cipher Brief Expert Emile Nakhleh is a retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service Officer and founding director of the CIA’s Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program Office. Nakhleh is currently a Research ...

FINE PRINT

A DUTY TO INFORM THE PUBLIC ON CYBER MAY 18, 2021 | WALTER PINCUS Walter Pincus is a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics. OPINION -- ... FIRST NEW STEPS TO COMBATTING DOMESTIC TERRORISM MAY 14, 2021 | JAVED ALI AND THOMAS S. WARRICK Javed Ali held senior counterterrorism positions at DHS, the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the National Security Council. He is a Towsley Policymaker in Residence ... INTELLIGENCE ON AFGHANISTAN: A DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE TASK MAY 12, 2021 | NEIL WILEY AND ROBERT P. ASHLEY Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley, Jr. is former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, where we reported directly to the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security and the ...

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WELL, HE _SAID_ HE WOULD BE BACK:  Arnold Schwarzenegger, former “Mr. Olympia,” film-star, and governor of California is about to make his TV series debut.  According to _Yahoo News

_,

Arnold is about to star in an (as yet untitled) 8-part Netflix series about a man who has secretly been working as a globe-trotting CIA “agent” for years and who discovers that his (somewhat estranged) daughter is also a secret CIA operative. The daughter will be played by Monica Barbaro, who is also in the forthcoming Tom Cruise sequel: _Top Gun: Maverick_...

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INVESTMENT AND THE FUTURE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE JUNE 9, 2021 | GILMAN LOUIE, COMMISSIONER OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMISSION ON AI AND PARTNER AT ALSOP LOUIE Presenting: Artificial Intelligence in the New Age of National Security a 6-part series Part 5: Investment and the Future of Artificial Intelligence This special series of virtual web briefings

will ...

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div.slide" data-cycletwo-log="false" style="position: relative;"> AMBASSADOR JOSEPH DETRANI Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center > The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues > affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior > and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique > and invaluable. It's a must read for anyone interesting in world

> affairs.

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00 Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. It's a must read for anyone interesting in world affairs. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/testimonials/ambassador-joseph-detrani AMBASSADOR JOSEPH DETRANI Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center > The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues > affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior > and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique > and invaluable. It's a must read for anyone interesting in world

> affairs.

2018-10-20T16:43:25+00:00 Former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. It's a must read for anyone interesting in world affairs. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/testimonials/ambassador-joseph-detrani

MATT OLSEN

Former Director, National CounterTerrorism Center > The Cipher Brief has emerged as the go-to source for analysis and > insights on cyber and national security. As the global security > landscape has become increasingly complex, The Cipher Brief has > become indispensable -- providing a non-partisan platform for > experts from government and business to share views, learn from each > other, and work together to find new partners and solutions. 2018-10-20T16:31:07+00:00 Former Director, National CounterTerrorism Center The Cipher Brief has emerged as the go-to source for analysis and insights on cyber and national security. As the global security landscape has become increasingly complex, The Cipher Brief has become indispensable -- providing a non-partisan platform for experts from government and business to share views, learn from each other, and work together to find new partners and solutions. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/testimonials/matt-olsen

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NETWORK SPOTLIGHT

ROB DANNENBERG

Rob Dannenberg is a 24-year veteran of the CIA, where he served in several senior leadership positions, including chief of operations for the Counterterrorism Center, chief of the Central Eurasia Division and chief of the CIA’s Information Operations Center. Dannenberg is a member of the Board of Advisors to the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center and is a senior ...

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