SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. CLIVE BEST | SCIENCE TRAVEL OPINIONSICE AGESEVIDENCE OF A TIDAL EFFECT ON THE POLAR JET STREAMDESCRIBED IN THIS POST Sea level change for 1900-1992, based on tide gauge measurements, from J.A. Church and N.J. White “Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st Century” Surveys in Geophysics (2011), but multiplied by 0.78 to reduce the 1901-1990 trend to 1.2 mm/yr 2019/20 GB PEAK POWER DEMAND The net contribution of wind and nuclear are about equal. Gas is by far the dominant contribution while coal has almost been eliminated as an energy source, but not quite because it is still needed when wind collapses during peak demand – August 2020. RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2 This post examines how radiative forcing depends on CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. In CO2 greenhouse demystified, we calculated the effective emission height where “thermal” photons escape to space .This height depends on the lapse rate temperature and defines the outgoing radiative flux for a given wavelength. A SIMPLE MODEL OF THE CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT The surface radiates heat as a black body of temperature 288K upwards. The atmosphere is divided into 150×100 m layers. Each level absorbs photons from any direction according to its local temperature, and numbers of CO2 molecules( partial CO2 pressure). MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude gradient of summer insolation seems to determine the onset of glaciations. EFFECTIVE EMISSION HEIGHT What exactly is meant by the term “Effective Emission Height (EEH)”? It is often used to explain the greenhouse effect because, it is claimed, increased CO2 levels will raise the EEH to a slightly colder level, reducing OLR, and thereby “forcing” a surface

temperature rise in

A COMPARISON OF HADCRUT4.6 USING ICOSAHEDRAL BINNING The same features are clearly present in both. Finally we can compare icosahedral binning to the Cowtan & Way (C&W) data. C&W use the same (lat,lon) binning as classic HadCRUT4 but in addition extrapolate the measured data into empty bins using a kriging technique. THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The second largest glaciation was the most recent one which reached its maximum extent at LGM 25,000 years ago. It is called by geologists the ‘Devensian’ . A COMPARISON OF CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS WITH HADCRUT4.6 Overview: Figure 1. shows a comparison of the latest HadCRUT4.6 temperatures with CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The temperature data lies significantly below all RC CLIVE BEST | SCIENCE TRAVEL OPINIONSICE AGESEVIDENCE OF A TIDAL EFFECT ON THE POLAR JET STREAMDESCRIBED IN THIS POST Sea level change for 1900-1992, based on tide gauge measurements, from J.A. Church and N.J. White “Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st Century” Surveys in Geophysics (2011), but multiplied by 0.78 to reduce the 1901-1990 trend to 1.2 mm/yr

SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. 2019/20 GB PEAK POWER DEMAND The net contribution of wind and nuclear are about equal. Gas is by far the dominant contribution while coal has almost been eliminated as an energy source, but not quite because it is still needed when wind collapses during peak demand – August 2020. RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2 This post examines how radiative forcing depends on CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. In CO2 greenhouse demystified, we calculated the effective emission height where “thermal” photons escape to space .This height depends on the lapse rate temperature and defines the outgoing radiative flux for a given wavelength. A SIMPLE MODEL OF THE CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT The surface radiates heat as a black body of temperature 288K upwards. The atmosphere is divided into 150×100 m layers. Each level absorbs photons from any direction according to its local temperature, and numbers of CO2 molecules( partial CO2 pressure). MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude gradient of summer insolation seems to determine the onset of glaciations. EFFECTIVE EMISSION HEIGHT What exactly is meant by the term “Effective Emission Height (EEH)”? It is often used to explain the greenhouse effect because, it is claimed, increased CO2 levels will raise the EEH to a slightly colder level, reducing OLR, and thereby “forcing” a surface

temperature rise in

A COMPARISON OF HADCRUT4.6 USING ICOSAHEDRAL BINNING The same features are clearly present in both. Finally we can compare icosahedral binning to the Cowtan & Way (C&W) data. C&W use the same (lat,lon) binning as classic HadCRUT4 but in addition extrapolate the measured data into empty bins using a kriging technique. THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The second largest glaciation was the most recent one which reached its maximum extent at LGM 25,000 years ago. It is called by geologists the ‘Devensian’ . A COMPARISON OF CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS WITH HADCRUT4.6 Overview: Figure 1. shows a comparison of the latest HadCRUT4.6 temperatures with CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The temperature data lies significantly below all RC

SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. GLOBAL TEMPERATURES SO FAR (MARCH 2021) HadSST3 has finally been updated for February and March so I can calculate global temperatures based on spherical triangulation. So far 2021 is running much cooler that 2020. The temperatures for t MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude gradient of summer insolation seems to determine the onset of glaciations. HOW TO NORMALISE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES Clive, I agree about the utility of normalising. I’d note though that the UAH period is actually 1981-2010, which is also the current WMO recommendation.. I post an updated normalised graph here using 1981-2010. It doesn’t really show that GISS is an outlier.

NET ZERO BY 2050

The 2008 Climate Change Act introduced by Ed Milliband committed the UK in law to cut CO2 emissions by 80% in 2050. This target was already difficult to achieve, but since then Theresa May went one better in the weeks before she left office, by enshrining in law a commitment to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The second largest glaciation was the most recent one which reached its maximum extent at LGM 25,000 years ago. It is called by geologists the ‘Devensian’ .

UNDERSTANDING TIDES

There has been a long animated discussion about tides at Wattsupwiththat which highlighted a confusion about both the causes of tides and their strength. Several people are adamant that tides are a universal phenomena experienced by any object near a large gravitational source. THE RELATIONSHIP OF CO2 TO TEMPERATURE Is temperature a function of CO2 or is CO2 a function of temperature i.e. Is T=f(CO2) or CO2=f(T) ? The answer according to Richard Betts is both, because increasing CO2 warms the planet but levels in the atmosphere also respond to natural ENSO cycles. MID PLIOCENE WARM PERIOD There is an exact match to current orbital conditions 2.8 million years ago but not 3.2 million years ago. The Mid Pliocene ‘warm’ period corresponds to an era of high eccentricity more like that during the Eemian which was warmer than the holocene despite slightly

lower CO2 levels.

LAPSE RATE FEEDBACK

Thanks for this post and I’ll reblog it if you don’t object Here are 2 related recent papers of interest: 1) “A minimum atmospheric temperature, or tropopause, occurs at a pressure of around 0.1?bar in the atmospheres of Earth1, Titan2, Jupiter3, Saturn4, Uranus and Neptune4, despite great differences in atmospheric composition, gravity, internal heat and sunlight.” “A common CLIVE BEST | SCIENCE TRAVEL OPINIONSICE AGESEVIDENCE OF A TIDAL EFFECT ON THE POLAR JET STREAMDESCRIBED IN THIS POST Posted on May 26, 2021 by Clive Best. My calculation of April’s temperature (anomaly) was 0.64C, which is down 0.04C from March. This is based on V4C and HADSST3 data using spherical triangulation. It is the coldest April since 2015. It was particularly cool across Europe, Central/Western US and in Australia and the Southern Polar region.

SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. 2019/20 GB PEAK POWER DEMAND Peak demand (day) used in all plots typically occurs at 6pm. This can also be compared to lowest demand at typically occurring at 3am (night). Shown below are the overall relative fuel type results averaged over the full 13 month period from August 2019 until 7 October 2020. Average contribution to peak power demand (day) and to

lowest demand

RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2 R.F = 6.6 log (C/C0) , where C is CO2 . We have derived the often quoted formula in climate science for the radiative forcing for a CO2 increase from concentration Co to C. This canonical equation is given by ~5.4 log (C/C0) ! OK so our result is about 20% higher – but that is pretty good IMHO, since the formula is never explained without A SIMPLE MODEL OF THE CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT The predicted warming from a doubling of CO2 is 1.2 1.5 deg.C using equation 1. This “direct” warming caused by a doubling of CO2 to 600ppm is very similar to other estimates and is encouraging. Note also that this includes a “guestimate” of 20% of SB radiation falling within the main CO2 absorption band. A COMPARISON OF HADCRUT4.6 USING ICOSAHEDRAL The same features are clearly present in both. Finally we can compare icosahedral binning to the Cowtan & Way (C&W) data. C&W use the same (lat,lon) binning as classic HadCRUT4 but in addition extrapolate the measured data into empty bins using a kriging technique. MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Milankovitch Insolation study. Posted on October 24, 2016 by Clive Best. Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The Anglian Glaciation. Posted on March 29, 2016 by Clive Best. I seem to have returned to an old obsession. Tying to understand the underlying causes and timings of ice ages is as frustrating as it is fascinating. By far the largest glaciation that occurred over Britain was 480,000 years ago in what geologists call the ‘Anglian’ ice

age.

EFFECTIVE EMISSION HEIGHT Effective Emission Height. What exactly is meant by the term “Effective Emission Height (EEH)”? It is often used to explain the greenhouse effect because, it is claimed, increased CO2 levels will raise the EEH to a slightly colder level, reducing OLR, and thereby “forcing” a surface temperature rise in order to restore energy

balance

A COMPARISON OF CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS WITH HADCRUT4.6 A comparison of CMIP5 Climate Models with HadCRUT4.6. Overview: Figure 1. shows a comparison of the latest HadCRUT4.6 temperatures with CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The temperature data lies significantly below all RCPs, which themselves only diverge after ~2025. Fig 1. Model comparisons to data 1950-2050. CLIVE BEST | SCIENCE TRAVEL OPINIONSICE AGESEVIDENCE OF A TIDAL EFFECT ON THE POLAR JET STREAMDESCRIBED IN THIS POST Posted on May 26, 2021 by Clive Best. My calculation of April’s temperature (anomaly) was 0.64C, which is down 0.04C from March. This is based on V4C and HADSST3 data using spherical triangulation. It is the coldest April since 2015. It was particularly cool across Europe, Central/Western US and in Australia and the Southern Polar region.

SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. 2019/20 GB PEAK POWER DEMAND Peak demand (day) used in all plots typically occurs at 6pm. This can also be compared to lowest demand at typically occurring at 3am (night). Shown below are the overall relative fuel type results averaged over the full 13 month period from August 2019 until 7 October 2020. Average contribution to peak power demand (day) and to

lowest demand

RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2 R.F = 6.6 log (C/C0) , where C is CO2 . We have derived the often quoted formula in climate science for the radiative forcing for a CO2 increase from concentration Co to C. This canonical equation is given by ~5.4 log (C/C0) ! OK so our result is about 20% higher – but that is pretty good IMHO, since the formula is never explained without A SIMPLE MODEL OF THE CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT The predicted warming from a doubling of CO2 is 1.2 1.5 deg.C using equation 1. This “direct” warming caused by a doubling of CO2 to 600ppm is very similar to other estimates and is encouraging. Note also that this includes a “guestimate” of 20% of SB radiation falling within the main CO2 absorption band. A COMPARISON OF HADCRUT4.6 USING ICOSAHEDRAL The same features are clearly present in both. Finally we can compare icosahedral binning to the Cowtan & Way (C&W) data. C&W use the same (lat,lon) binning as classic HadCRUT4 but in addition extrapolate the measured data into empty bins using a kriging technique. MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Milankovitch Insolation study. Posted on October 24, 2016 by Clive Best. Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The Anglian Glaciation. Posted on March 29, 2016 by Clive Best. I seem to have returned to an old obsession. Tying to understand the underlying causes and timings of ice ages is as frustrating as it is fascinating. By far the largest glaciation that occurred over Britain was 480,000 years ago in what geologists call the ‘Anglian’ ice

age.

EFFECTIVE EMISSION HEIGHT Effective Emission Height. What exactly is meant by the term “Effective Emission Height (EEH)”? It is often used to explain the greenhouse effect because, it is claimed, increased CO2 levels will raise the EEH to a slightly colder level, reducing OLR, and thereby “forcing” a surface temperature rise in order to restore energy

balance

A COMPARISON OF CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS WITH HADCRUT4.6 A comparison of CMIP5 Climate Models with HadCRUT4.6. Overview: Figure 1. shows a comparison of the latest HadCRUT4.6 temperatures with CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The temperature data lies significantly below all RCPs, which themselves only diverge after ~2025. Fig 1. Model comparisons to data 1950-2050.

SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. GLOBAL TEMPERATURES SO FAR (MARCH 2021) Mar. 0.65C (rise of 0.13C) Monthly Global temperatures. Based on the first 3 months there has also been a large drop in the “annual” temperature of ~0.3C compared to 2020, back to levels seen 15 years ago (2005). Annual global temperatures 2021 is based on just the first 3 months. Here is a spatial distributions for March.

NET ZERO BY 2050

Net Zero by 2050. Posted on April 5, 2021 by Clive Best. The 2008 Climate Change Act introduced by Ed Milliband committed the UK in law to cut CO2 emissions by 80% in 2050. This target was already difficult to achieve, but since then Theresa May went one better in the weeks before she left office, by enshrining in law a commitment to reach net MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Milankovitch Insolation study. Posted on October 24, 2016 by Clive Best. Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The Anglian Glaciation. Posted on March 29, 2016 by Clive Best. I seem to have returned to an old obsession. Tying to understand the underlying causes and timings of ice ages is as frustrating as it is fascinating. By far the largest glaciation that occurred over Britain was 480,000 years ago in what geologists call the ‘Anglian’ ice

age.

HOW TO NORMALISE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES In order to do that you must first calculate the 30 year average monthly temperature for the new baseline and then subtract it. These are the normalisation ‘offsets’. The UAH baseline 1979-2010 is the only one where all datasets have overlapping values. These are the

offsets you need to

LOGARITHMIC DEPENDENCE OF TEMPERATURE ON CO2 This is my understanding of the CO2 greenhouse effect. Radiation transfer calculations based on this theory result in a logarithmic dependence of the radiative forcing (extra heating effect), as follows. deltaE = 5.3* Ln (C/C0) watts/m2. where C is the CO2 concentration at some time and C0 is a reference value for defining

deltaE.

THE RELATIONSHIP OF CO2 TO TEMPERATURE The answer according to Richard Betts is both, because increasing CO2 warms the planet but levels in the atmosphere also respond to natural ENSO cycles. However for the last 50 million years until now, CO2 levels have only ever reacted to changes in temperature rather than being the primary driver of temperature. MID PLIOCENE WARM PERIOD There is an exact match to current orbital conditions 2.8 million years ago but not 3.2 million years ago. The Mid Pliocene ‘warm’ period corresponds to an era of high eccentricity more like that during the Eemian which was warmer than the holocene despite slightly

lower CO2 levels.

LAPSE RATE FEEDBACK

Lapse rate feedback. Posted on December 9, 2013 by Clive Best. In the tropics the tropopause is much higher in altitude than in temperate regions. The reason is for this is that warm ocean surfaces cool by evaporation moving latent heat upwards where it heats the upper atmosphere through condensation. The lapse rate moves towards the

moist

CLIVE BEST | SCIENCE TRAVEL OPINIONSICE AGESEVIDENCE OF A TIDAL EFFECT ON THE POLAR JET STREAMDESCRIBED IN THIS POST Posted on May 26, 2021 by Clive Best. My calculation of April’s temperature (anomaly) was 0.64C, which is down 0.04C from March. This is based on V4C and HADSST3 data using spherical triangulation. It is the coldest April since 2015. It was particularly cool across Europe, Central/Western US and in Australia and the Southern Polar region.

SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. 2019/20 GB PEAK POWER DEMAND Peak demand (day) used in all plots typically occurs at 6pm. This can also be compared to lowest demand at typically occurring at 3am (night). Shown below are the overall relative fuel type results averaged over the full 13 month period from August 2019 until 7 October 2020. Average contribution to peak power demand (day) and to

lowest demand

RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2 R.F = 6.6 log (C/C0) , where C is CO2 . We have derived the often quoted formula in climate science for the radiative forcing for a CO2 increase from concentration Co to C. This canonical equation is given by ~5.4 log (C/C0) ! OK so our result is about 20% higher – but that is pretty good IMHO, since the formula is never explained without A SIMPLE MODEL OF THE CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT The predicted warming from a doubling of CO2 is 1.2 1.5 deg.C using equation 1. This “direct” warming caused by a doubling of CO2 to 600ppm is very similar to other estimates and is encouraging. Note also that this includes a “guestimate” of 20% of SB radiation falling within the main CO2 absorption band. A COMPARISON OF HADCRUT4.6 USING ICOSAHEDRAL The same features are clearly present in both. Finally we can compare icosahedral binning to the Cowtan & Way (C&W) data. C&W use the same (lat,lon) binning as classic HadCRUT4 but in addition extrapolate the measured data into empty bins using a kriging technique. MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Milankovitch Insolation study. Posted on October 24, 2016 by Clive Best. Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The Anglian Glaciation. Posted on March 29, 2016 by Clive Best. I seem to have returned to an old obsession. Tying to understand the underlying causes and timings of ice ages is as frustrating as it is fascinating. By far the largest glaciation that occurred over Britain was 480,000 years ago in what geologists call the ‘Anglian’ ice

age.

EFFECTIVE EMISSION HEIGHT Effective Emission Height. What exactly is meant by the term “Effective Emission Height (EEH)”? It is often used to explain the greenhouse effect because, it is claimed, increased CO2 levels will raise the EEH to a slightly colder level, reducing OLR, and thereby “forcing” a surface temperature rise in order to restore energy

balance

A COMPARISON OF CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS WITH HADCRUT4.6 A comparison of CMIP5 Climate Models with HadCRUT4.6. Overview: Figure 1. shows a comparison of the latest HadCRUT4.6 temperatures with CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The temperature data lies significantly below all RCPs, which themselves only diverge after ~2025. Fig 1. Model comparisons to data 1950-2050. CLIVE BEST | SCIENCE TRAVEL OPINIONSICE AGESEVIDENCE OF A TIDAL EFFECT ON THE POLAR JET STREAMDESCRIBED IN THIS POST Posted on May 26, 2021 by Clive Best. My calculation of April’s temperature (anomaly) was 0.64C, which is down 0.04C from March. This is based on V4C and HADSST3 data using spherical triangulation. It is the coldest April since 2015. It was particularly cool across Europe, Central/Western US and in Australia and the Southern Polar region.

SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. 2019/20 GB PEAK POWER DEMAND Peak demand (day) used in all plots typically occurs at 6pm. This can also be compared to lowest demand at typically occurring at 3am (night). Shown below are the overall relative fuel type results averaged over the full 13 month period from August 2019 until 7 October 2020. Average contribution to peak power demand (day) and to

lowest demand

RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2 R.F = 6.6 log (C/C0) , where C is CO2 . We have derived the often quoted formula in climate science for the radiative forcing for a CO2 increase from concentration Co to C. This canonical equation is given by ~5.4 log (C/C0) ! OK so our result is about 20% higher – but that is pretty good IMHO, since the formula is never explained without A SIMPLE MODEL OF THE CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT The predicted warming from a doubling of CO2 is 1.2 1.5 deg.C using equation 1. This “direct” warming caused by a doubling of CO2 to 600ppm is very similar to other estimates and is encouraging. Note also that this includes a “guestimate” of 20% of SB radiation falling within the main CO2 absorption band. A COMPARISON OF HADCRUT4.6 USING ICOSAHEDRAL The same features are clearly present in both. Finally we can compare icosahedral binning to the Cowtan & Way (C&W) data. C&W use the same (lat,lon) binning as classic HadCRUT4 but in addition extrapolate the measured data into empty bins using a kriging technique. MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Milankovitch Insolation study. Posted on October 24, 2016 by Clive Best. Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The Anglian Glaciation. Posted on March 29, 2016 by Clive Best. I seem to have returned to an old obsession. Tying to understand the underlying causes and timings of ice ages is as frustrating as it is fascinating. By far the largest glaciation that occurred over Britain was 480,000 years ago in what geologists call the ‘Anglian’ ice

age.

EFFECTIVE EMISSION HEIGHT Effective Emission Height. What exactly is meant by the term “Effective Emission Height (EEH)”? It is often used to explain the greenhouse effect because, it is claimed, increased CO2 levels will raise the EEH to a slightly colder level, reducing OLR, and thereby “forcing” a surface temperature rise in order to restore energy

balance

A COMPARISON OF CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS WITH HADCRUT4.6 A comparison of CMIP5 Climate Models with HadCRUT4.6. Overview: Figure 1. shows a comparison of the latest HadCRUT4.6 temperatures with CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The temperature data lies significantly below all RCPs, which themselves only diverge after ~2025. Fig 1. Model comparisons to data 1950-2050.

SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. GLOBAL TEMPERATURES SO FAR (MARCH 2021) Mar. 0.65C (rise of 0.13C) Monthly Global temperatures. Based on the first 3 months there has also been a large drop in the “annual” temperature of ~0.3C compared to 2020, back to levels seen 15 years ago (2005). Annual global temperatures 2021 is based on just the first 3 months. Here is a spatial distributions for March.

NET ZERO BY 2050

Net Zero by 2050. Posted on April 5, 2021 by Clive Best. The 2008 Climate Change Act introduced by Ed Milliband committed the UK in law to cut CO2 emissions by 80% in 2050. This target was already difficult to achieve, but since then Theresa May went one better in the weeks before she left office, by enshrining in law a commitment to reach net MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Milankovitch Insolation study. Posted on October 24, 2016 by Clive Best. Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The Anglian Glaciation. Posted on March 29, 2016 by Clive Best. I seem to have returned to an old obsession. Tying to understand the underlying causes and timings of ice ages is as frustrating as it is fascinating. By far the largest glaciation that occurred over Britain was 480,000 years ago in what geologists call the ‘Anglian’ ice

age.

HOW TO NORMALISE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES In order to do that you must first calculate the 30 year average monthly temperature for the new baseline and then subtract it. These are the normalisation ‘offsets’. The UAH baseline 1979-2010 is the only one where all datasets have overlapping values. These are the

offsets you need to

LOGARITHMIC DEPENDENCE OF TEMPERATURE ON CO2 This is my understanding of the CO2 greenhouse effect. Radiation transfer calculations based on this theory result in a logarithmic dependence of the radiative forcing (extra heating effect), as follows. deltaE = 5.3* Ln (C/C0) watts/m2. where C is the CO2 concentration at some time and C0 is a reference value for defining

deltaE.

THE RELATIONSHIP OF CO2 TO TEMPERATURE The answer according to Richard Betts is both, because increasing CO2 warms the planet but levels in the atmosphere also respond to natural ENSO cycles. However for the last 50 million years until now, CO2 levels have only ever reacted to changes in temperature rather than being the primary driver of temperature. MID PLIOCENE WARM PERIOD There is an exact match to current orbital conditions 2.8 million years ago but not 3.2 million years ago. The Mid Pliocene ‘warm’ period corresponds to an era of high eccentricity more like that during the Eemian which was warmer than the holocene despite slightly

lower CO2 levels.

LAPSE RATE FEEDBACK

Lapse rate feedback. Posted on December 9, 2013 by Clive Best. In the tropics the tropopause is much higher in altitude than in temperate regions. The reason is for this is that warm ocean surfaces cool by evaporation moving latent heat upwards where it heats the upper atmosphere through condensation. The lapse rate moves towards the

moist

CLIVE BEST | SCIENCE TRAVEL OPINIONSICE AGESEVIDENCE OF A TIDAL EFFECT ON THE POLAR JET STREAMDESCRIBED IN THIS POST Posted on May 26, 2021 by Clive Best. My calculation of April’s temperature (anomaly) was 0.64C, which is down 0.04C from March. This is based on V4C and HADSST3 data using spherical triangulation. It is the coldest April since 2015. It was particularly cool across Europe, Central/Western US and in Australia and the Southern Polar region. 2019/20 GB PEAK POWER DEMAND Peak demand (day) used in all plots typically occurs at 6pm. This can also be compared to lowest demand at typically occurring at 3am (night). Shown below are the overall relative fuel type results averaged over the full 13 month period from August 2019 until 7 October 2020. Average contribution to peak power demand (day) and to

lowest demand

MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Milankovitch Insolation study. Posted on October 24, 2016 by Clive Best. Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude

CLIVEBEST.COM

There are 3 sets of IDL procedures, one for each method and each has two variants a) to process GHCN V3C and b) to process Hadcrut4.5 using Crutem4 station files, A COMPARISON OF HADCRUT4.6 USING ICOSAHEDRAL The same features are clearly present in both. Finally we can compare icosahedral binning to the Cowtan & Way (C&W) data. C&W use the same (lat,lon) binning as classic HadCRUT4 but in addition extrapolate the measured data into empty bins using a kriging technique. RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2 R.F = 6.6 log (C/C0) , where C is CO2 . We have derived the often quoted formula in climate science for the radiative forcing for a CO2 increase from concentration Co to C. This canonical equation is given by ~5.4 log (C/C0) ! OK so our result is about 20% higher – but that is pretty good IMHO, since the formula is never explained without THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The Anglian Glaciation. Posted on March 29, 2016 by Clive Best. I seem to have returned to an old obsession. Tying to understand the underlying causes and timings of ice ages is as frustrating as it is fascinating. By far the largest glaciation that occurred over Britain was 480,000 years ago in what geologists call the ‘Anglian’ ice

age.

EFFECTIVE EMISSION HEIGHT Effective Emission Height. What exactly is meant by the term “Effective Emission Height (EEH)”? It is often used to explain the greenhouse effect because, it is claimed, increased CO2 levels will raise the EEH to a slightly colder level, reducing OLR, and thereby “forcing” a surface temperature rise in order to restore energy

balance

SPHERICAL TRIANGULATION GIVES IDENTICAL RESULTS TO COWTAN The Cowtan and Way temperature anomaly based on HadCRUT4.6 for 2017 has been released and it is 0.74C. This is uncannily similar to that

calculated by

WHEN IS THE NEXT ICE AGE DUE? The peak of the warmer Eemian interglacial 120,000 years ago lasted less than 10,000 years, because the much larger eccentricity at that time enabled the first minimum precession summer to increase the spread of northern ice sheets. CLIVE BEST | SCIENCE TRAVEL OPINIONSICE AGESEVIDENCE OF A TIDAL EFFECT ON THE POLAR JET STREAMDESCRIBED IN THIS POST Posted on May 26, 2021 by Clive Best. My calculation of April’s temperature (anomaly) was 0.64C, which is down 0.04C from March. This is based on V4C and HADSST3 data using spherical triangulation. It is the coldest April since 2015. It was particularly cool across Europe, Central/Western US and in Australia and the Southern Polar region. 2019/20 GB PEAK POWER DEMAND Peak demand (day) used in all plots typically occurs at 6pm. This can also be compared to lowest demand at typically occurring at 3am (night). Shown below are the overall relative fuel type results averaged over the full 13 month period from August 2019 until 7 October 2020. Average contribution to peak power demand (day) and to

lowest demand

MILANKOVITCH INSOLATION STUDY Milankovitch Insolation study. Posted on October 24, 2016 by Clive Best. Summary: The annual insolation of planet earth does not change during Milankovitch cycles. Instead it is the distribution of solar energy with latitude and with season that determines the earth’s climate. The most surprising result of this study is that the latitude

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There are 3 sets of IDL procedures, one for each method and each has two variants a) to process GHCN V3C and b) to process Hadcrut4.5 using Crutem4 station files, A COMPARISON OF HADCRUT4.6 USING ICOSAHEDRAL The same features are clearly present in both. Finally we can compare icosahedral binning to the Cowtan & Way (C&W) data. C&W use the same (lat,lon) binning as classic HadCRUT4 but in addition extrapolate the measured data into empty bins using a kriging technique. RADIATIVE FORCING OF CO2 R.F = 6.6 log (C/C0) , where C is CO2 . We have derived the often quoted formula in climate science for the radiative forcing for a CO2 increase from concentration Co to C. This canonical equation is given by ~5.4 log (C/C0) ! OK so our result is about 20% higher – but that is pretty good IMHO, since the formula is never explained without THE ANGLIAN GLACIATION The Anglian Glaciation. Posted on March 29, 2016 by Clive Best. I seem to have returned to an old obsession. Tying to understand the underlying causes and timings of ice ages is as frustrating as it is fascinating. By far the largest glaciation that occurred over Britain was 480,000 years ago in what geologists call the ‘Anglian’ ice

age.

EFFECTIVE EMISSION HEIGHT Effective Emission Height. What exactly is meant by the term “Effective Emission Height (EEH)”? It is often used to explain the greenhouse effect because, it is claimed, increased CO2 levels will raise the EEH to a slightly colder level, reducing OLR, and thereby “forcing” a surface temperature rise in order to restore energy

balance

SPHERICAL TRIANGULATION GIVES IDENTICAL RESULTS TO COWTAN The Cowtan and Way temperature anomaly based on HadCRUT4.6 for 2017 has been released and it is 0.74C. This is uncannily similar to that

calculated by

WHEN IS THE NEXT ICE AGE DUE? The peak of the warmer Eemian interglacial 120,000 years ago lasted less than 10,000 years, because the much larger eccentricity at that time enabled the first minimum precession summer to increase the spread of northern ice sheets.

SLR | CLIVE BEST

For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations.

SEA LEVEL RISE

Sea level change for 1900-1992, based on tide gauge measurements, from J.A. Church and N.J. White “Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st Century” Surveys in Geophysics (2011), but multiplied by 0.78 to reduce the 1901-1990 trend to 1.2 mm/yr A FIRST LOOK AT HADCRUT5 A first look at HadCRUT5. Posted on January 20, 2021 by Clive Best. The latest version of the CRU station data is called CRUTEM5 which when combined with the new Met Office sea surface temperature data HadSST4 becomes the new official global temperature dataset HadCRUT5. This was released about 2 weeks ago and is now operational.

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There are 3 sets of IDL procedures, one for each method and each has two variants a) to process GHCN V3C and b) to process Hadcrut4.5 using Crutem4 station files, A SIMPLE MODEL OF THE CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT The predicted warming from a doubling of CO2 is 1.2 1.5 deg.C using equation 1. This “direct” warming caused by a doubling of CO2 to 600ppm is very similar to other estimates and is encouraging. Note also that this includes a “guestimate” of 20% of SB radiation falling within the main CO2 absorption band. HOW TO NORMALISE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES In order to do that you must first calculate the 30 year average monthly temperature for the new baseline and then subtract it. These are the normalisation ‘offsets’. The UAH baseline 1979-2010 is the only one where all datasets have overlapping values. These are the

offsets you need to

SPHERICAL TRIANGULATION GIVES IDENTICAL RESULTS TO COWTAN The Cowtan and Way temperature anomaly based on HadCRUT4.6 for 2017 has been released and it is 0.74C. This is uncannily similar to that

calculated by

CONTROLLED NUCLEAR FUSION Controlled Nuclear Fusion. Posted on November 9, 2015 by Clive Best. If nuclear fusion can be tamed on earth then it offers the potential of limitless energy for the foreseeable future. We saw in the previous post how all the elements on earth were fused in a MARS GREENHOUSE EFFECT Mars has a much thinner atmosphere than Earth but it is 95% composed of CO2. One might therefore expect a larger greenhouse effect, since there are 20 times more CO2 molecules in the Martian atmosphere than

there are on Earth.

HOW THE MOON AFFECTS THE WEATHER How the moon affects the weather. I aim to demonstrate in this series of posts that ever changing gravitational tides influence the flow of the polar Jet Stream thereby changing weather patterns at high latitudes. Such effects should be included in global circulation models to improve medium range weather forecasting.

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SEA LEVEL RISE

Posted on June 3, 2021 by Clive Best For over 100 years global sea levels have been measured by tide gauges. Their distribution has of course changed dramatically with time – just like weather stations. Satellite altimetry measurements have only been available since 1992. Therefore we depend on measuring long term  sea level rise on the tidal measurements to determine whether or not SLR  is increasing as a result of  climate change. Sea levels have been rising since the last glacial maximum, rising by over 100m. Of course all climate scientists today also believe that the rate is accelerating due to climate change. But if science is to mean anything then  the rates must be derived from independent measurement data based on tidal gauges and Satellite altimetry. So if we first restrict ourselves to just tidal range data then we get the following result. Global Sea level rise based on tidal gauges. So apart from the early period there has been a linear rise in sea surface levels since 1920. Has the trend accelerated though ? We are often told that the rate of increase in SLR has quadrupled – a common meme ! But is this really true ? I downloaded all the satellite altimetry data from NOAA (Topex and Jason 12 & 3) and normalised it to the tidal range instrumentation available here. This is what I get if I take a 12 month average to remove some of the seasonal effects from the radar data. You would be very hard pushed to see any acceleration in trends based on the available data. Note I am only using the official NOAA altimetry and tidal gauge data. Yet somehow we are expected to believe instead that rates have quadrupled . This claim is mainly based on a paper from 2011 by J.A. Church and N.J. White “Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st Century” Surveys in Geophysics (2011). Here is what they find updated to 2020. This shows a sudden kink increase in trend in 1993 when the satellite data take over, but this is not seen in the actual data. Sea level change for 1900-1992, based on tide gauge measurements, from J.A. Church and N.J. White “Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st Century” Surveys in Geophysics (2011), but multiplied by 0.78 to reduce the 1901-1990 trend to 1.2 mm/yr So what they did was simply to flatten the tidal  data curve by multiplying the slope by a factor 0.78 thereby reducing the 1901-1990 trend to 1.2 mm/yr !  But even that doesn’t completely explain it. I get a rate of 2.9 mm/year SLR base on the Topex/Jason altimetry data, so somehow they have also boosted the satellite rate of change as well to 3.4 mm/yr! They also cut the data off at 1900 which implies a slower rate of increase before 1930 of 0.6 mm/yr. However if instead they had used all the data back to 1870 then that rate would have doubled! NOAA also get a rate of change of 3.0 ± 0.4 mm/yr using all the available satellite data which agrees with what I find. So the conclusion is that global sea levels have been rising consistently by 2.5-3.0 mm/year since 1920. Furthermore there has been no significant acceleration in this rate during that time. The often repeated claim that the rate of sea level rise is accelerating and has even quadrupled is not consistent with the data. Posted in SLR | Tagged Climate Change

, SLR

| 22 Comments

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES – APRIL 2021 Posted on May 26, 2021 by Clive Best My calculation of April’s temperature (anomaly) was 0.64C, which is down 0.04C from March. This is based on V4C and HADSST3 data using spherical triangulation. It is the coldest April since 2015. It was particularly cool across Europe, Central/Western US and in Australia and the Southern Polar region. 2021 so far is significantly cooler, so  roughly the same as 2014. Posted in Uncategorized | 12 Comments DO CMIP6 MODELS MATCH THE DATA? Posted on May 11, 2021 by Clive Best Here is a comparison between my calculation of  global temperature data (spherical triangulation) and a sample of CMIP6 models blended so as to to match SST and land data (see here

)

Comparison of monthly temperature anomalies and a sample of “blended” models with a common baseline of 1961-1990 The model data are computed as temperature anomalies on the same baseline as the data (1961-1990), so they all align themselves during this 30 year timespan. The real comparison  is  just on the temperatures trends post 1990. It seems clear that low sensitivity models are more favoured.  This result implies that we can probably expect an average  rise in temperature since 1960 of about  1.5C  in 2050. Posted in AGW , climate science

| Tagged CMIP6

| 3 Comments

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