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snowpack
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are WILD WEATHER WEEK AHEAD: WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH What a difference a week makes! Much of California is running *below* 30% of seasonal average precipitation leading up to this week's onslaught. (climatetoolbox.org) The first half of January didn't feel much like winter across California. Much of the state experienced record high temperatures CALIFORNIA DROUGHT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY; COOLER A formal drought emergency (which is, as I’ve previously mentioned, is at least as much a political designation as a scientific one) was declared for Sonoma and Mendocino Counties a couple of weeks ago, and was apparently dramatically expanded across much of NorCal earlier today.Some smaller water districts are now starting to issue urban conservation mandates. EXTREME ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS: WHAT WILL CALIFORNIA’S Note: This special Weather West article focuses on new peer-reviewed scientific research, led by Xingying Huang, that my colleagues and I recently published in Science Advances. UCLA infographic illustrating key points from our extreme atmospheric river work. SOME MODEST APRIL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL I wish I could be writing that there was a late-season pattern reversal since my last post, with widespread drought-mitigating rains. Unfortunately, the reality has been nearly the opposite of that–the precipitation spigot has remained largely closed since the last blog update, and conditions have been quite warm at times (especially across inland areas). SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions CALIFORNIA DRY WINTER : WEATHER WEST Content tagged with california dry winter. While nearly all major reservoirs are still above the record-low levels set during the 1976-1977 and 1987-1992 droughts (largely due to water management decisions made this year), a number of reservoirs stand a good chance of dropping below these previous record lows during October/November2014.
RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 2. THE EXTRAORDINARY CALIFORNIA DROUGHT OF 2013/2014 AMERIC ETEOROLOGIC SCIETY S 2014 | S3 Fig. 1.1.Location and type of events analyzed in this paper. 2. THE EXTRAORDINARY CALIFORNIA DROUGHT OF 2013/2014: CHARACTER, CONTEXT, AND THE ROLE WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are WILD WEATHER WEEK AHEAD: WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH What a difference a week makes! Much of California is running *below* 30% of seasonal average precipitation leading up to this week's onslaught. (climatetoolbox.org) The first half of January didn't feel much like winter across California. Much of the state experienced record high temperatures CALIFORNIA DROUGHT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY; COOLER A formal drought emergency (which is, as I’ve previously mentioned, is at least as much a political designation as a scientific one) was declared for Sonoma and Mendocino Counties a couple of weeks ago, and was apparently dramatically expanded across much of NorCal earlier today.Some smaller water districts are now starting to issue urban conservation mandates. EXTREME ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS: WHAT WILL CALIFORNIA’S Note: This special Weather West article focuses on new peer-reviewed scientific research, led by Xingying Huang, that my colleagues and I recently published in Science Advances. UCLA infographic illustrating key points from our extreme atmospheric river work. SOME MODEST APRIL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL I wish I could be writing that there was a late-season pattern reversal since my last post, with widespread drought-mitigating rains. Unfortunately, the reality has been nearly the opposite of that–the precipitation spigot has remained largely closed since the last blog update, and conditions have been quite warm at times (especially across inland areas). SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions CALIFORNIA DRY WINTER : WEATHER WEST Content tagged with california dry winter. While nearly all major reservoirs are still above the record-low levels set during the 1976-1977 and 1987-1992 droughts (largely due to water management decisions made this year), a number of reservoirs stand a good chance of dropping below these previous record lows during October/November2014.
RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 2. THE EXTRAORDINARY CALIFORNIA DROUGHT OF 2013/2014 AMERIC ETEOROLOGIC SCIETY S 2014 | S3 Fig. 1.1.Location and type of events analyzed in this paper. 2. THE EXTRAORDINARY CALIFORNIA DROUGHT OF 2013/2014: CHARACTER, CONTEXT, AND THE ROLE SEMI-ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN LIKELY ACROSS NORCAL, BUT 2020 in California weather, wildfire, and otherwise: good riddance! Let's just face it: 2020 has been a truly awful year in California--weather-wise, and otherwise. California suffered its worst wildfire season on record, by an enormous margin, in the midst of aworsening pandemic.
WELCOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORCAL, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO Record-dry start to wet season in some places Sep-Dec (to date) has been the driest such period since at least the late 1970s across most of NorCal. In some spots, 2020 may bring driest start to wet season in over 100 years. (climatetoolbox. CALIFORNIA DRY WINTER : WEATHER WEST Content tagged with california dry winter. While nearly all major reservoirs are still above the record-low levels set during the 1976-1977 and 1987-1992 droughts (largely due to water management decisions made this year), a number of reservoirs stand a good chance of dropping below these previous record lows during October/November2014.
EXTREME ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS: WHAT WILL CALIFORNIA’S Note: This special Weather West article focuses on new peer-reviewed scientific research, led by Xingying Huang, that my colleagues and I recently published in Science Advances. UCLA infographic illustrating key points from our extreme atmospheric river work. INCREASINGLY EXTREME AUTUMN WILDFIRE CONDITIONS IN Wildfire has been a part of the landscape in the region encompassed by present-day California sincewell, time immemorial. Fire is a natural process, and many ecosystems depend on fire of some frequency and intensity for their health and long-term regeneration (although natural fire frequency and intensity varies widely across different ecoregions and vegetation types). VERY DRY WEATHER ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-DECEMBER Conditions over the past 2 weeks have actually been slightly *cooler* than average across California (what a concept!). (Climate Toolbox) To summarize: wildfire risk has been greatly mitigated in far NorCal and in the usual wet spots along the western slopes south to about a Monterey to Yosemite line–though occasional fire activity will still be possible here until more widespread heavy VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO BRING EXTREME WILDFIRE Very strong offshore wind event expected Sun/Mon. Much of northern California has been under Red Flag Warnings this week due to very low humidities and occasional light to moderate offshore winds. Fire risk will remain high, but not extremely so, over the next 48 hours as this pattern persists. However, a dramatically stronger and more SWING AND A MISS: ANTICIPATED OCTOBER RAIN EVAPORATES, AND And then, of course, there was the relentless smoke. Terrible air quality and frequent daylight-dimming “smokestorm” conditions actually resulted in a slightly cooler month than would otherwise have been the case (and, again, September was still *record* warm). AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. 1976-1977 DROUGHT : WEATHER WEST The proximate cause of this highly anomalous high-latitude storm track over the Pacific–as I have discussed in previous posts–is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 (or the RRR, for brevity). This region of strong and incredibly persistent anomalous geopotential height ridging is centered over the Gulf of Alaska but extends across much of the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean, and WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) areDANIEL L. SWAIN
Daniel L. Swain 3 with drought in western and southwestern United States: characteristics, trends and predictability. Journal of Climate, 33, 2485-2408, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0439.1, 2020. 14. CALIFORNIA DROUGHT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY; COOLER A formal drought emergency (which is, as I’ve previously mentioned, is at least as much a political designation as a scientific one) was declared for Sonoma and Mendocino Counties a couple of weeks ago, and was apparently dramatically expanded across much of NorCal earlier today.Some smaller water districts are now starting to issue urban conservation mandates. WILD WEATHER WEEK AHEAD: WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH What a difference a week makes! Much of California is running *below* 30% of seasonal average precipitation leading up to this week's onslaught. (climatetoolbox.org) The first half of January didn't feel much like winter across California. Much of the state experienced record high temperatures CALIFORNIA DRY WINTER : WEATHER WEST Content tagged with california dry winter. While nearly all major reservoirs are still above the record-low levels set during the 1976-1977 and 1987-1992 droughts (largely due to water management decisions made this year), a number of reservoirs stand a good chance of dropping below these previous record lows during October/November2014.
SOME MODEST APRIL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL I wish I could be writing that there was a late-season pattern reversal since my last post, with widespread drought-mitigating rains. Unfortunately, the reality has been nearly the opposite of that–the precipitation spigot has remained largely closed since the last blog update, and conditions have been quite warm at times (especially across inland areas). VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO BRING EXTREME WILDFIRE Very strong offshore wind event expected Sun/Mon. Much of northern California has been under Red Flag Warnings this week due to very low humidities and occasional light to moderate offshore winds. Fire risk will remain high, but not extremely so, over the next 48 hours as this pattern persists. However, a dramatically stronger and more SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) areDANIEL L. SWAIN
Daniel L. Swain 3 with drought in western and southwestern United States: characteristics, trends and predictability. Journal of Climate, 33, 2485-2408, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0439.1, 2020. 14. CALIFORNIA DROUGHT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY; COOLER A formal drought emergency (which is, as I’ve previously mentioned, is at least as much a political designation as a scientific one) was declared for Sonoma and Mendocino Counties a couple of weeks ago, and was apparently dramatically expanded across much of NorCal earlier today.Some smaller water districts are now starting to issue urban conservation mandates. WILD WEATHER WEEK AHEAD: WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH What a difference a week makes! Much of California is running *below* 30% of seasonal average precipitation leading up to this week's onslaught. (climatetoolbox.org) The first half of January didn't feel much like winter across California. Much of the state experienced record high temperatures CALIFORNIA DRY WINTER : WEATHER WEST Content tagged with california dry winter. While nearly all major reservoirs are still above the record-low levels set during the 1976-1977 and 1987-1992 droughts (largely due to water management decisions made this year), a number of reservoirs stand a good chance of dropping below these previous record lows during October/November2014.
SOME MODEST APRIL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL I wish I could be writing that there was a late-season pattern reversal since my last post, with widespread drought-mitigating rains. Unfortunately, the reality has been nearly the opposite of that–the precipitation spigot has remained largely closed since the last blog update, and conditions have been quite warm at times (especially across inland areas). VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO BRING EXTREME WILDFIRE Very strong offshore wind event expected Sun/Mon. Much of northern California has been under Red Flag Warnings this week due to very low humidities and occasional light to moderate offshore winds. Fire risk will remain high, but not extremely so, over the next 48 hours as this pattern persists. However, a dramatically stronger and more SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. ARCHIVES : WEATHER WEST December 2009. 20: Some rain early this week, but mostly calm weather prevails. 10: Wet weather on tap: some heavy rain, wind, and thunderstorms possible. 6: ***Record snowfall likely in Central Valley tomorrow***. 4: Low elevation snowfall NorCal; flooding rains SoCal, then a statewide storm midweek.DANIEL L. SWAIN
Daniel L. Swain 3 with drought in western and southwestern United States: characteristics, trends and predictability. Journal of Climate, 33, 2485-2408, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0439.1, 2020. 14. LETTER - WEATHER WEST 0.06dyr21 yr21 portionofthehotextremestrendassociatedwiththis pattern, ,57.3% is attributable to thermodynamic influences and,44.3% to increased pattern occurrence WELCOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORCAL, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO Record-dry start to wet season in some places Sep-Dec (to date) has been the driest such period since at least the late 1970s across most of NorCal. In some spots, 2020 may bring driest start to wet season in over 100 years. (climatetoolbox. TOPSY-TURVY WEATHER PATTERN TO BRING RECORD WARMTH AND Wet season precipitation to date: far below average Precipitation for the season to date is far below average across nearly all of California. (climatetoolbox.org) Few readers will be surprised by the fact that the 2020-2021 Water Year to date has been rather dismal, precipitation-wise, throug RECENT AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTH AMERICAN WINTER Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole Deepti Singh1,2, Daniel L. Swain1, Justin S. Mankin2,3, Daniel E. Horton1,4,5, Leif N. Thomas1 EXTREME ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS: WHAT WILL CALIFORNIA’S Note: This special Weather West article focuses on new peer-reviewed scientific research, led by Xingying Huang, that my colleagues and I recently published in Science Advances. UCLA infographic illustrating key points from our extreme atmospheric river work. INCREASING PRECIPITATION WHIPLASH IN TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Overview: small shift in average precipitation, but big increase in extremes. Previous studies have found that future changes in California’s overall average annual precipitation are likely to be fairly modest, even under rather extreme global warming scenarios.Most climate models suggest that the boundary between mean wetting (in the already moist mid-latitude regions to the north) and mean RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 1976-1977 DROUGHT : WEATHER WEST The proximate cause of this highly anomalous high-latitude storm track over the Pacific–as I have discussed in previous posts–is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 (or the RRR, for brevity). This region of strong and incredibly persistent anomalous geopotential height ridging is centered over the Gulf of Alaska but extends across much of the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean, and WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) areDANIEL L. SWAIN
Daniel L. Swain 3 with drought in western and southwestern United States: characteristics, trends and predictability. Journal of Climate, 33, 2485-2408, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0439.1, 2020. 14. CALIFORNIA DROUGHT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY; COOLER A formal drought emergency (which is, as I’ve previously mentioned, is at least as much a political designation as a scientific one) was declared for Sonoma and Mendocino Counties a couple of weeks ago, and was apparently dramatically expanded across much of NorCal earlier today.Some smaller water districts are now starting to issue urban conservation mandates. WILD WEATHER WEEK AHEAD: WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH What a difference a week makes! Much of California is running *below* 30% of seasonal average precipitation leading up to this week's onslaught. (climatetoolbox.org) The first half of January didn't feel much like winter across California. Much of the state experienced record high temperatures CALIFORNIA DRY WINTER : WEATHER WEST Content tagged with california dry winter. While nearly all major reservoirs are still above the record-low levels set during the 1976-1977 and 1987-1992 droughts (largely due to water management decisions made this year), a number of reservoirs stand a good chance of dropping below these previous record lows during October/November2014.
SOME MODEST APRIL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL I wish I could be writing that there was a late-season pattern reversal since my last post, with widespread drought-mitigating rains. Unfortunately, the reality has been nearly the opposite of that–the precipitation spigot has remained largely closed since the last blog update, and conditions have been quite warm at times (especially across inland areas). VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO BRING EXTREME WILDFIRE Very strong offshore wind event expected Sun/Mon. Much of northern California has been under Red Flag Warnings this week due to very low humidities and occasional light to moderate offshore winds. Fire risk will remain high, but not extremely so, over the next 48 hours as this pattern persists. However, a dramatically stronger and more SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) areDANIEL L. SWAIN
Daniel L. Swain 3 with drought in western and southwestern United States: characteristics, trends and predictability. Journal of Climate, 33, 2485-2408, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0439.1, 2020. 14. CALIFORNIA DROUGHT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY; COOLER A formal drought emergency (which is, as I’ve previously mentioned, is at least as much a political designation as a scientific one) was declared for Sonoma and Mendocino Counties a couple of weeks ago, and was apparently dramatically expanded across much of NorCal earlier today.Some smaller water districts are now starting to issue urban conservation mandates. WILD WEATHER WEEK AHEAD: WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH What a difference a week makes! Much of California is running *below* 30% of seasonal average precipitation leading up to this week's onslaught. (climatetoolbox.org) The first half of January didn't feel much like winter across California. Much of the state experienced record high temperatures CALIFORNIA DRY WINTER : WEATHER WEST Content tagged with california dry winter. While nearly all major reservoirs are still above the record-low levels set during the 1976-1977 and 1987-1992 droughts (largely due to water management decisions made this year), a number of reservoirs stand a good chance of dropping below these previous record lows during October/November2014.
SOME MODEST APRIL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL I wish I could be writing that there was a late-season pattern reversal since my last post, with widespread drought-mitigating rains. Unfortunately, the reality has been nearly the opposite of that–the precipitation spigot has remained largely closed since the last blog update, and conditions have been quite warm at times (especially across inland areas). VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT TO BRING EXTREME WILDFIRE Very strong offshore wind event expected Sun/Mon. Much of northern California has been under Red Flag Warnings this week due to very low humidities and occasional light to moderate offshore winds. Fire risk will remain high, but not extremely so, over the next 48 hours as this pattern persists. However, a dramatically stronger and more SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. ARCHIVES : WEATHER WEST December 2009. 20: Some rain early this week, but mostly calm weather prevails. 10: Wet weather on tap: some heavy rain, wind, and thunderstorms possible. 6: ***Record snowfall likely in Central Valley tomorrow***. 4: Low elevation snowfall NorCal; flooding rains SoCal, then a statewide storm midweek.DANIEL L. SWAIN
Daniel L. Swain 3 with drought in western and southwestern United States: characteristics, trends and predictability. Journal of Climate, 33, 2485-2408, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0439.1, 2020. 14. LETTER - WEATHER WEST 0.06dyr21 yr21 portionofthehotextremestrendassociatedwiththis pattern, ,57.3% is attributable to thermodynamic influences and,44.3% to increased pattern occurrence WELCOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORCAL, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO Record-dry start to wet season in some places Sep-Dec (to date) has been the driest such period since at least the late 1970s across most of NorCal. In some spots, 2020 may bring driest start to wet season in over 100 years. (climatetoolbox. TOPSY-TURVY WEATHER PATTERN TO BRING RECORD WARMTH AND Wet season precipitation to date: far below average Precipitation for the season to date is far below average across nearly all of California. (climatetoolbox.org) Few readers will be surprised by the fact that the 2020-2021 Water Year to date has been rather dismal, precipitation-wise, throug RECENT AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTH AMERICAN WINTER Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole Deepti Singh1,2, Daniel L. Swain1, Justin S. Mankin2,3, Daniel E. Horton1,4,5, Leif N. Thomas1 EXTREME ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS: WHAT WILL CALIFORNIA’S Note: This special Weather West article focuses on new peer-reviewed scientific research, led by Xingying Huang, that my colleagues and I recently published in Science Advances. UCLA infographic illustrating key points from our extreme atmospheric river work. INCREASING PRECIPITATION WHIPLASH IN TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Overview: small shift in average precipitation, but big increase in extremes. Previous studies have found that future changes in California’s overall average annual precipitation are likely to be fairly modest, even under rather extreme global warming scenarios.Most climate models suggest that the boundary between mean wetting (in the already moist mid-latitude regions to the north) and mean RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 1976-1977 DROUGHT : WEATHER WEST The proximate cause of this highly anomalous high-latitude storm track over the Pacific–as I have discussed in previous posts–is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 (or the RRR, for brevity). This region of strong and incredibly persistent anomalous geopotential height ridging is centered over the Gulf of Alaska but extends across much of the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean, and WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
LINKS : WEATHER WEST Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Satellite Imagery NOAA Satellite Services Division (GOES Western U.S. view) Naval Research Lab (East Pacific imagery) Radar Imagery NCAR RAP Real-Time NEXRAD National Weather Service NEXRAD Surface Station Data MesoWest (Official NWSstation data) Wu
WEATHER WEST
The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
CONTACT : WEATHER WEST Contact. If you have questions, comments, or feedback, please feel free to email me using the form below. Unfortunately, I can’t guarantee a personal response to all messages due to extremely high email volume, but I do read and consider everything that reaches myinbox.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS : WEATHER WEST The Weather West niche exists at the “weather-climate” interface–which is to say, rather than try to keep up with all the day-to-day variations in weather conditions, my primary goal is to focus on the connections between large-scale atmospheric conditionsand broader
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 1976-1977 DROUGHT : WEATHER WEST The proximate cause of this highly anomalous high-latitude storm track over the Pacific–as I have discussed in previous posts–is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 (or the RRR, for brevity). This region of strong and incredibly persistent anomalous geopotential height ridging is centered over the Gulf of Alaska but extends across much of the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean, and AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
LINKS : WEATHER WEST Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Satellite Imagery NOAA Satellite Services Division (GOES Western U.S. view) Naval Research Lab (East Pacific imagery) Radar Imagery NCAR RAP Real-Time NEXRAD National Weather Service NEXRAD Surface Station Data MesoWest (Official NWSstation data) Wu
WEATHER WEST
The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
CONTACT : WEATHER WEST Contact. If you have questions, comments, or feedback, please feel free to email me using the form below. Unfortunately, I can’t guarantee a personal response to all messages due to extremely high email volume, but I do read and consider everything that reaches myinbox.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS : WEATHER WEST The Weather West niche exists at the “weather-climate” interface–which is to say, rather than try to keep up with all the day-to-day variations in weather conditions, my primary goal is to focus on the connections between large-scale atmospheric conditionsand broader
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 1976-1977 DROUGHT : WEATHER WEST The proximate cause of this highly anomalous high-latitude storm track over the Pacific–as I have discussed in previous posts–is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 (or the RRR, for brevity). This region of strong and incredibly persistent anomalous geopotential height ridging is centered over the Gulf of Alaska but extends across much of the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean, and AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. LINKS : WEATHER WEST Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Satellite Imagery NOAA Satellite Services Division (GOES Western U.S. view) Naval Research Lab (East Pacific imagery) Radar Imagery NCAR RAP Real-Time NEXRAD National Weather Service NEXRAD Surface Station Data MesoWest (Official NWSstation data) Wu
ABOUT : WEATHER WEST About. Weather West has provided unique perspectives on California weather and climate since 2006. Dr. Daniel Swain is a climate scientist in the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at the University of California, Los Angeles, and holds concurrent appointments as a Research Fellow in the Capacity Center for Climateand Weather
ARCHIVES : WEATHER WEST December 2009. 20: Some rain early this week, but mostly calm weather prevails. 10: Wet weather on tap: some heavy rain, wind, and thunderstorms possible. 6: ***Record snowfall likely in Central Valley tomorrow***. 4: Low elevation snowfall NorCal; flooding rains SoCal, then a statewide storm midweek. THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are ATTRIBUTING EXTREME EVENTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A NEW Primer Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World Daniel L. Swain,1 ,2 3 * Deepti Singh,4 Danielle Touma,5 and Noah S. Diffenbaugh6 1Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA 2Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH LATE A bone-dry February compounds dry start to winter Much of northern California is now running near or below 50% of average precipitation for the season to date. (NW Climate Toolbox) Autumn 2019 was record dry across parts of northern California. Despite an early December reprieve (especially in WARM AND DRY, THEN COOL (AND STILL DRY), HEADING INTO A dry (and warm, in most places) January in California Seasonal precipitation to date is now well below average across most of the state except the far southern CA coast and inland desert regions. (WRCC) Unusually dry conditions have been the rule over northern California since the early autum DRAMATIC SHIFT TO ACTIVE WEATHER IN SOCAL; VERY LATE Sudden shift from record heat to localized downpours in SoCal The culprit for this sudden shift to rain in SoCal and wind in NorCal: a strong and cold low pressure system sliding down the California coast. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com) A fairly dramatic weather pattern change will take place INCREASINGLY UNUSUAL DRY AUTUMN CONDITIONS PERSIST; FIRE Following slow start, California fire season roars into high gear A map that will surprise no one: nearly all of California has been bone dry over the past month. (WRCC) Unfortunately, the weather situation in California has changed very little since my last post. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS; DRY WEATHER TO RETURN : WEATHER Showers and thunderstorms; dry weather to return. Well, today was a very convective day across NorCal, with significant to severe thunderstorm activity affecting much of the northern half of the state (especially coastal areas). No lightning is currently being reported, and precipitation has reached a bit of a lull at the moment. WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
LINKS : WEATHER WEST Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Satellite Imagery NOAA Satellite Services Division (GOES Western U.S. view) Naval Research Lab (East Pacific imagery) Radar Imagery NCAR RAP Real-Time NEXRAD National Weather Service NEXRAD Surface Station Data MesoWest (Official NWSstation data) Wu
WEATHER WEST
The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
CONTACT : WEATHER WEST Contact. If you have questions, comments, or feedback, please feel free to email me using the form below. Unfortunately, I can’t guarantee a personal response to all messages due to extremely high email volume, but I do read and consider everything that reaches myinbox.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS : WEATHER WEST The Weather West niche exists at the “weather-climate” interface–which is to say, rather than try to keep up with all the day-to-day variations in weather conditions, my primary goal is to focus on the connections between large-scale atmospheric conditionsand broader
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 1976-1977 DROUGHT : WEATHER WEST The proximate cause of this highly anomalous high-latitude storm track over the Pacific–as I have discussed in previous posts–is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 (or the RRR, for brevity). This region of strong and incredibly persistent anomalous geopotential height ridging is centered over the Gulf of Alaska but extends across much of the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean, and AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
LINKS : WEATHER WEST Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Satellite Imagery NOAA Satellite Services Division (GOES Western U.S. view) Naval Research Lab (East Pacific imagery) Radar Imagery NCAR RAP Real-Time NEXRAD National Weather Service NEXRAD Surface Station Data MesoWest (Official NWSstation data) Wu
WEATHER WEST
The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
CONTACT : WEATHER WEST Contact. If you have questions, comments, or feedback, please feel free to email me using the form below. Unfortunately, I can’t guarantee a personal response to all messages due to extremely high email volume, but I do read and consider everything that reaches myinbox.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS : WEATHER WEST The Weather West niche exists at the “weather-climate” interface–which is to say, rather than try to keep up with all the day-to-day variations in weather conditions, my primary goal is to focus on the connections between large-scale atmospheric conditionsand broader
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 1976-1977 DROUGHT : WEATHER WEST The proximate cause of this highly anomalous high-latitude storm track over the Pacific–as I have discussed in previous posts–is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 (or the RRR, for brevity). This region of strong and incredibly persistent anomalous geopotential height ridging is centered over the Gulf of Alaska but extends across much of the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean, and AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. LINKS : WEATHER WEST Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Satellite Imagery NOAA Satellite Services Division (GOES Western U.S. view) Naval Research Lab (East Pacific imagery) Radar Imagery NCAR RAP Real-Time NEXRAD National Weather Service NEXRAD Surface Station Data MesoWest (Official NWSstation data) Wu
ABOUT : WEATHER WEST About. Weather West has provided unique perspectives on California weather and climate since 2006. Dr. Daniel Swain is a climate scientist in the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at the University of California, Los Angeles, and holds concurrent appointments as a Research Fellow in the Capacity Center for Climateand Weather
ARCHIVES : WEATHER WEST December 2009. 20: Some rain early this week, but mostly calm weather prevails. 10: Wet weather on tap: some heavy rain, wind, and thunderstorms possible. 6: ***Record snowfall likely in Central Valley tomorrow***. 4: Low elevation snowfall NorCal; flooding rains SoCal, then a statewide storm midweek. THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are ATTRIBUTING EXTREME EVENTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A NEW Primer Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World Daniel L. Swain,1 ,2 3 * Deepti Singh,4 Danielle Touma,5 and Noah S. Diffenbaugh6 1Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA 2Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH LATE A bone-dry February compounds dry start to winter Much of northern California is now running near or below 50% of average precipitation for the season to date. (NW Climate Toolbox) Autumn 2019 was record dry across parts of northern California. Despite an early December reprieve (especially in WARM AND DRY, THEN COOL (AND STILL DRY), HEADING INTO A dry (and warm, in most places) January in California Seasonal precipitation to date is now well below average across most of the state except the far southern CA coast and inland desert regions. (WRCC) Unusually dry conditions have been the rule over northern California since the early autum DRAMATIC SHIFT TO ACTIVE WEATHER IN SOCAL; VERY LATE Sudden shift from record heat to localized downpours in SoCal The culprit for this sudden shift to rain in SoCal and wind in NorCal: a strong and cold low pressure system sliding down the California coast. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com) A fairly dramatic weather pattern change will take place INCREASINGLY UNUSUAL DRY AUTUMN CONDITIONS PERSIST; FIRE Following slow start, California fire season roars into high gear A map that will surprise no one: nearly all of California has been bone dry over the past month. (WRCC) Unfortunately, the weather situation in California has changed very little since my last post. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS; DRY WEATHER TO RETURN : WEATHER Showers and thunderstorms; dry weather to return. Well, today was a very convective day across NorCal, with significant to severe thunderstorm activity affecting much of the northern half of the state (especially coastal areas). No lightning is currently being reported, and precipitation has reached a bit of a lull at the moment. WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
LINKS : WEATHER WEST Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Satellite Imagery NOAA Satellite Services Division (GOES Western U.S. view) Naval Research Lab (East Pacific imagery) Radar Imagery NCAR RAP Real-Time NEXRAD National Weather Service NEXRAD Surface Station Data MesoWest (Official NWSstation data) Wu
WEATHER WEST
The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack is now down to an absolutely abysmal 8% of average for the calendar date–from 15% 5 days ago–and at this rate could be completely gone in just another week or so. Additionally, because soils underneath the snowpack have been so parched, and the air above the snowpack so dry, the majority of thesnowpack
CONTACT : WEATHER WEST Contact. If you have questions, comments, or feedback, please feel free to email me using the form below. Unfortunately, I can’t guarantee a personal response to all messages due to extremely high email volume, but I do read and consider everything that reaches myinbox.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS : WEATHER WEST The Weather West niche exists at the “weather-climate” interface–which is to say, rather than try to keep up with all the day-to-day variations in weather conditions, my primary goal is to focus on the connections between large-scale atmospheric conditionsand broader
THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 1976-1977 DROUGHT : WEATHER WEST The proximate cause of this highly anomalous high-latitude storm track over the Pacific–as I have discussed in previous posts–is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 (or the RRR, for brevity). This region of strong and incredibly persistent anomalous geopotential height ridging is centered over the Gulf of Alaska but extends across much of the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean, and AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. WEATHER WESTABOUTCONTACTLINKSFAQTOSARCHIVES The Weather West Blog provides a unique, real-time perspective on weather, climate, and regional change in California and beyond.WEATHER WEST
Update: six days later, statewide snowpack is down to 8% of avg for date. Rapid melting & sublimation continues amid an unusually early spate of critical fire weather conditions (driven by record-dry vegetation for the date, anomalous warmth, and offshore winds). LINKS : WEATHER WEST Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Satellite Imagery NOAA Satellite Services Division (GOES Western U.S. view) Naval Research Lab (East Pacific imagery) Radar Imagery NCAR RAP Real-Time NEXRAD National Weather Service NEXRAD Surface Station Data MesoWest (Official NWSstation data) Wu
CONTACT : WEATHER WEST Contact. If you have questions, comments, or feedback, please feel free to email me using the form below. Unfortunately, I can’t guarantee a personal response to all messages due to extremely high email volume, but I do read and consider everything that reaches myinbox.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS : WEATHER WEST Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are SLOW-MOVING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MAY BRING FLOODING TO Recent storminess in the context of California's ongoing severe drought After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions RECORD HEAT, UNPRECEDENTED LIGHTNING FIRE SIEGE IN Size and scope of NorCal fires is historically unprecedented. As I’ve stated publicly, I’m essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California–even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. 1976-1977 DROUGHT : WEATHER WEST The proximate cause of this highly anomalous high-latitude storm track over the Pacific–as I have discussed in previous posts–is the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 (or the RRR, for brevity). This region of strong and incredibly persistent anomalous geopotential height ridging is centered over the Gulf of Alaska but extends across much of the northern and eastern Pacific Ocean, and AN UNUSUALLY COOL SUMMER CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA; LONG Most everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, though, it’s been quite a hot summer indeed. Most of you have already heard about the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010, which has shattered all high temperature records imaginable in Moscow and across much of the western half of the country.The past month saw the warmest July global land surface temperatures ever observed. ABOUT : WEATHER WEST Weather West has provided unique perspectives on California weather and climate since 2006. Dr. Daniel Swain is a climate scientist in the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at the University of California, Los Angeles, and holds concurrent appointments as a Research Fellow in the Capac LINKS : WEATHER WEST Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Satellite Imagery NOAA Satellite Services Division (GOES Western U.S. view) Naval Research Lab (East Pacific imagery) Radar Imagery NCAR RAP Real-Time NEXRAD National Weather Service NEXRAD Surface Station Data MesoWest (Official NWSstation data) Wu
ARCHIVES : WEATHER WEST Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE RETURNS…AGAIN : WEATHER WEST The 2020-2021 “rainy season” to date has, in fact, turned out to be exceptionally dry across portions of California. I think this probably slipped in under the radar, given everything else that has transpired in the world over the past few months, but some parts of northern California (including the SF North Bay, Mendocino County, and much of the central/northern Sacramento Valley) are ATTRIBUTING EXTREME EVENTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A NEW Primer Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World Daniel L. Swain,1 ,2 3 * Deepti Singh,4 Danielle Touma,5 and Noah S. Diffenbaugh6 1Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA 2Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH LATE A bone-dry February compounds dry start to winter Much of northern California is now running near or below 50% of average precipitation for the season to date. (NW Climate Toolbox) Autumn 2019 was record dry across parts of northern California. Despite an early December reprieve (especially in WARM AND DRY, THEN COOL (AND STILL DRY), HEADING INTO A dry (and warm, in most places) January in California Seasonal precipitation to date is now well below average across most of the state except the far southern CA coast and inland desert regions. (WRCC) Unusually dry conditions have been the rule over northern California since the early autum DRAMATIC SHIFT TO ACTIVE WEATHER IN SOCAL; VERY LATE Sudden shift from record heat to localized downpours in SoCal The culprit for this sudden shift to rain in SoCal and wind in NorCal: a strong and cold low pressure system sliding down the California coast. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com) A fairly dramatic weather pattern change will take place INCREASINGLY UNUSUAL DRY AUTUMN CONDITIONS PERSIST; FIRE Following slow start, California fire season roars into high gear A map that will surprise no one: nearly all of California has been bone dry over the past month. (WRCC) Unfortunately, the weather situation in California has changed very little since my last post. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS; DRY WEATHER TO RETURN : WEATHER Well, today was a very convective day across NorCal, with significant to severe thunderstorm activity affecting much of the northern half of the state (especially coastal areas). No lightning is currently being reported, and precipitation has reached a bit of a lull at the moment.Weather West
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Navigate to ... Home About Contact Links FAQ TOS Archives MAJOR EARLY-SEASON HEATWAVE ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL EARLY NEXT WEEK; EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN Filed in Weather/Climate Discussion by Daniel Swain on May 28, 2021 • 1402 Comments RELATIVE COOL REPRIEVE MAY BE ENDING, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM COAST The last couple of weeks have featured rather comfortable conditions across much of California, with near average temperatures (even slightly cooler than average) temperatures along the immediate coast due to chilly near shore ocean temperatures and a robust marine layer. Rather dry and cool low pressure systems have repeatedly brought bouts of mainly light mountain showers in recent days–not hydrologically significant precipitation by any means, but still welcome. There has been a notable lack of hot temperatures even across inland areas, aswell.
All of that is about to change pretty dramatically as a major pattern change develops along the West Coast. But first, I just wanted to update everyone on the status of the drought. As will be a surprise to absolutely no one reading this, the drought in California is already quite severe, and continues to worsen. The Drought Monitor, the useful (if imperfect) drought monitoring tool put out by UNL and the USDA, suggests in its most recent update that much of Northern California is now experiencing “exceptional drought”–a step above “extreme drought,” and the highest possible drought designation. Many folks in NorCal will point out that some of the more subjective drought monitoring tools and metrics may just be catching up to reality–streamflow, soil moisture, and vegetation dryness have been at record dry levels for some time already. But the steady ramp up of these formal drought classifications has been generating an increasing level of public attention, and for good reason: conditions across a large portion of Northern California are already drier than they were at the *peak* of the 2013-2016 drought, and we’re just now entering the long dry season. Snowpack, such as it was, is now “officially” gone–with less than 0.5% of average remaining. That is an exceptionally early total melt-out, and even more concerningly this very rapid melting apparently contributed very little to runoff on CA’s rivers and streams.Drought
conditions have continued to expand, and “exceptional drought” (the highest possible designation) now extends across much of NorCal and also portions of SE CA. I won’t belabor the increasingly obvious point about the potential for exceptional wildfire risk and behavior, especially in NorCal and especially in/near forests from August through October. But I really do recommend that people be as prepared as they can be for what could be quite a serious wildfire season. Whether or not we see as many extremely large and destructive fires as we did in 2020 remains to be seen. I am reasonably optimistic that last year remains an outlier, even by 21st century climate-changed standards. But we very well could see behavior on individual fires that matches/exceeds last year as vegetation is even drier than it was a year ago. And if we see any major dry lightning outbreaks in the next 5 months–watch out. MAJOR, POSSIBLE RECORD-BREAKING HEATWAVE ACROSS NORCAL SUN-TUES Well, the cool weather reprieve is officially coming to an end. Strong high pressure will build along the West Coast this weekend, bringing a dome of very high 500mb geopotential heights and downward motion in the atmosphere. This will produce a very hot early season airmass over the NorCal interior that will try (with only modest success) to spread toward the coast. Monday and Tuesday will likely feature the first triple digit temperatures across the Central Valley this season, and some spots could approach 110 in the hotter locations. Many places will likely see their hottest Memorial Day on record across NorCal, and a handful of locations could even set new May monthly temperature records. This will be a pretty sudden transition from relatively mild to very hot temperatures in some places, so the potential for heat-related illness will be a bit higher than usual for temperatures of this magnitude as well. SoCal will be warm, but not nearly so anomalously hot as NorCal and I don’t expect record temperatures in the southern part of the stateduring this event.
Very
hot early season temperatures are likely across much of NorCal (especially the interior) early net week. As noted previously, vegetation is already at mid-late July-like dryness levels–so fire risk will be much higher than usual for a late May heatwave. No significant winds are expected, so fire risk probably won’t be extreme, but fuels are now dry enough to sustain very active fire behavior during hot/dry conditions just about everywhere–so be careful out there. COOLER BY MID-JUNE, BUT STILL WARMER THAN AVERAGE? We have, unfortunately, reached the time of year when I usually don’t bother discussing precipitation chances unless something unusual is going on. Right now, there’s nothing on the horizon. At the moment, multi-model ensembles do suggest that temperatures will decrease somewhat from their early June record levels–cooling nearly statewide. That said, warmer than average temperatures may persist across most of the CA interior, with continued cool conditions along only the immediate coast as cool near-shore SSTs persist.Model
ensembles suggest a cooling trend heading toward mid-June, but with modestly above average temperatures persisting inland and over the Sierra Nevada. Near to slightly below average temperatures are likely along the immediate coast due to persistence of cool SSTs.SHARE THIS:
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