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TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slackUSER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE We are heavily influenced by the work of Charles Kindleberger and Hymen Minsky at Variant Perception, and we’ve dedicated much of our work to understanding how boom and bust cycles progress. In Kindleberger’s classic, Panics, Manias and Crashes , he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROM The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION MEDIA. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of “fiscal dominance” where huge budget deficitsinvite
TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slackUSER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE We are heavily influenced by the work of Charles Kindleberger and Hymen Minsky at Variant Perception, and we’ve dedicated much of our work to understanding how boom and bust cycles progress. In Kindleberger’s classic, Panics, Manias and Crashes , he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROM The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. HOW INFLATION SWINDLES THE EQUITY INVESTOR Following on from our post last week about the concept of equity duration, it’s a great time to revisit Warren Buffett’s evergreen piece on inflation vs equities. The chart below shows in nominal terms the S&P 500 did okay through the 1970s, but investors lost heavily in real terms. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION MEDIA. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of “fiscal dominance” where huge budget deficitsinvite
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market.US OVERHEATING RISK
The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbocharged by fiscal stimulus. Overheating risks are rising The US has seen a pronounced uptick in economic momentum in the lastCRISIS MANAGEMENT
Chart source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception. Bear markets have historically lasted 18 months on average, enduring an average 42% peak-to-trough decline. The 2020 bear market lasted 33 days with a max drawdown of 34%. The extraordinary action of central banks across the world made this the shortest bear market ever and helped all THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
WHAT’S WITH THE NAME VARIANT PERCEPTION? Variant perception is the effort to become sufficiently knowledgeable about whatever the subject is, that at a time to be at variance from consensus, because one of the few sure ways to make money in the market is to have a view that is off consensus and have that view turned out to be rightThat’s not enough you have to be right. A contrarian is a plus, but it’s not enough. RECESSIONS AND SHOCKS Recessions and Shocks The coronavirus pandemic is a highly unusual circumstance, and in several ways we are in uncharted waters. Two weeks ago we published a thematic report titled Recessions and Shocks In which we applied our tools, our signals and our outsider approach to: show that markets tend not to front-run novel exogenousshocks
USER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION MEDIA. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of “fiscal dominance” where huge budget deficitsinvite
TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slackUSER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE We are heavily influenced by the work of Charles Kindleberger and Hymen Minsky at Variant Perception, and we’ve dedicated much of our work to understanding how boom and bust cycles progress. In Kindleberger’s classic, Panics, Manias and Crashes , he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION MEDIA. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of “fiscal dominance” where huge budget deficitsinvite
TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slackUSER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE We are heavily influenced by the work of Charles Kindleberger and Hymen Minsky at Variant Perception, and we’ve dedicated much of our work to understanding how boom and bust cycles progress. In Kindleberger’s classic, Panics, Manias and Crashes , he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION MEDIA. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of “fiscal dominance” where huge budget deficitsinvite
THE IMPORTANCE OF EQUITY DURATION We have seen much commentary that if US 10y yields go back to 2.5% or 3.0%, then equity markets suffer. We prefer a different way to looking at the problem. The key is what inflation is doing alongside any move in nominal yields. The below chart shows the % of the US yield curvetrading
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market.FRAMEWORK ARCHIVES
How To Identify Market Bottoms. Jun 12, 2020 | Featured, Framework. This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020 Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised in retrospect.USER ACCOUNT
Leading investment analysis. We provide actionable investment advice for institutional managers, hedge funds and familyUS OVERHEATING RISK
The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbocharged by fiscal stimulus. Overheating risks are rising The US has seen a pronounced uptick in economic momentum in the last TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack RECESSIONS AND SHOCKS Recessions and Shocks The coronavirus pandemic is a highly unusual circumstance, and in several ways we are in uncharted waters. Two weeks ago we published a thematic report titled Recessions and Shocks In which we applied our tools, our signals and our outsider approach to: show that markets tend not to front-run novel exogenousshocks
USER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTIONVARIANT COMPANY Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
USER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE We are heavily influenced by the work of Charles Kindleberger and Hymen Minsky at Variant Perception, and we’ve dedicated much of our work to understanding how boom and bust cycles progress. In Kindleberger’s classic, Panics, Manias and Crashes , he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROMASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS 1997ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS 1998FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS 1990S1997 ASIAN ECONOMIC CRISISASIANCONTAGION 1997
The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTIONVARIANT COMPANY Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
USER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE We are heavily influenced by the work of Charles Kindleberger and Hymen Minsky at Variant Perception, and we’ve dedicated much of our work to understanding how boom and bust cycles progress. In Kindleberger’s classic, Panics, Manias and Crashes , he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROMASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS 1997ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS 1998FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS 1990S1997 ASIAN ECONOMIC CRISISASIANCONTAGION 1997
The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION MEDIA. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of “fiscal dominance” where huge budget deficitsinvite
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market.FRAMEWORK ARCHIVES
How To Identify Market Bottoms. Jun 12, 2020 | Featured, Framework. This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020 Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised in retrospect. HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
US OVERHEATING RISK
The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbocharged by fiscal stimulus. Overheating risks are rising The US has seen a pronounced uptick in economic momentum in the lastCRISIS MANAGEMENT
Chart source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception. Bear markets have historically lasted 18 months on average, enduring an average 42% peak-to-trough decline. The 2020 bear market lasted 33 days with a max drawdown of 34%. The extraordinary action of central banks across the world made this the shortest bear market ever and helped allSTEEPER AND CHEAPER
Steeper and Cheaper. While further gains will be harder from here, indicators continue to point to a supportive backdrop for yields and the yield curve, with the latter historically tending to steepen through US elections. In our October monthly report ( The Case for Banks – October 8th 2020) we discussed how even though the move tohigher
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTIONVARIANT COMPANY Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
USER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE We are heavily influenced by the work of Charles Kindleberger and Hymen Minsky at Variant Perception, and we’ve dedicated much of our work to understanding how boom and bust cycles progress. In Kindleberger’s classic, Panics, Manias and Crashes , he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROMASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS 1997ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS 1998FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS 1990S1997 ASIAN ECONOMIC CRISISASIANCONTAGION 1997
The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTIONVARIANT COMPANY Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
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THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE We are heavily influenced by the work of Charles Kindleberger and Hymen Minsky at Variant Perception, and we’ve dedicated much of our work to understanding how boom and bust cycles progress. In Kindleberger’s classic, Panics, Manias and Crashes , he expands on earlier work by Minsky in Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROMASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS 1997ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS 1998FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS 1990S1997 ASIAN ECONOMIC CRISISASIANCONTAGION 1997
The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION MEDIA. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of “fiscal dominance” where huge budget deficitsinvite
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market.FRAMEWORK ARCHIVES
How To Identify Market Bottoms. Jun 12, 2020 | Featured, Framework. This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020 Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised in retrospect. HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
US OVERHEATING RISK
The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbocharged by fiscal stimulus. Overheating risks are rising The US has seen a pronounced uptick in economic momentum in the lastCRISIS MANAGEMENT
Chart source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception. Bear markets have historically lasted 18 months on average, enduring an average 42% peak-to-trough decline. The 2020 bear market lasted 33 days with a max drawdown of 34%. The extraordinary action of central banks across the world made this the shortest bear market ever and helped allSTEEPER AND CHEAPER
Steeper and Cheaper. While further gains will be harder from here, indicators continue to point to a supportive backdrop for yields and the yield curve, with the latter historically tending to steepen through US elections. In our October monthly report ( The Case for Banks – October 8th 2020) we discussed how even though the move tohigher
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
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