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THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE OF THE (LAST) CENTURY • NOVEL The Biggest Short Squeeze of the (Last) Century. January 29, 2021 by Jon. An epic stock market battle took place in 1901. Two heavyweights fought for control of a railroad, cornered the market, and forced the biggest short squeeze of the last century. The Union Pacific was a railroad nobody wanted to touch, not even J.P. Morgan, in 1898. LESSONS FROM THE 2021 BERKSHIRE MEETING • NOVEL INVESTOR Lessons from the 2021 Berkshire Meeting. The broad lesson from this year’s Berkshire annual meeting is that successful investing is hard. Especially when it appears to be easy. Of course, that will likely be the lesson when we look back on this period a decade from now too. But until then, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger will againbe
10 LESSONS LEARNED FROM NICK MURRAY • NOVEL INVESTOR 10. Most people misunderstand risk. Murray defines risk for what it really is, not volatility, but permanent loss and outliving your money. Volatility is a temporary concept that passes with time. Most people see it as an excuse to act. Those actions lead to real risks, self-imposed risks, like being forced to take a pay cut in retirement HISTORICAL RETURNS ON STOCKS, BONDS, AND COUNTRIES • NOVEL Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, and Countries. The long term annual returns for the data used in the different asset class tables can found below. It includes annual return data for eight different asset classes, developed market countries, and emerging market countries. Click the link to jump to each table: Returns representtotal annual
THE THEORY OF STOCK EXCHANGE SPECULATION BY ARTHUR CRUMP The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation by Arthur Crump. Buy the Book: Print | eBook. Arthur Crump warns of the many obstacles, behavioral and otherwise, speculators face in the markets. The 1874 classic sits as another example that speculating has been a difficult endeavor for a very long time. THE SPECIAL DIVIDEND TAX RULES • NOVEL INVESTOR A special dividend is a one time dividend payment to shareholders outside of any regularly scheduled dividends, if there are any. Companies usually declare a one time dividend because of very strong earnings or if there is an excessive amount of cash on the balance sheet. But it can be issued for a number of other reasons too. PETER LYNCH ON MARKET HISTORY • NOVEL INVESTOR Peter Lynch is known for his often misinterpreted “invest in what you know” philosophy. To him, part of owning stocks meant knowing what you own (meaning work and research). He also meant knowing market history and Lynch knows it well. He’s better at NOVEL INVESTOR • COMPOUNDING INVESTING WISDOM...ABOUTTOOLSSTOCK SECTOR RETURNSFOLLOW THE EARNINGSWISE WORDS FROM PHILIP CARRET Peter Lynch was a legend who beat the market in a way few greats could do. From 1977 to 1990, he averaged a 29.7% return with the Magellan Fund. It was the best-performing fund of the 1980s. And yet, Lynch made mistakes. He jokingly admits to it ANNUAL S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE • NOVEL INVESTOR S&P. S&P 500 Index. 9.88%. 32.4%. -37.0%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance is meant to show changes in market trends across the different S&P 500 sectors over the past ten years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include fees and expenses. ANNUAL ASSET CLASS RETURNS • NOVEL INVESTOR AA. Asset Allocation Portfolio*. 7.02%. 24.6%. -22.4%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance shows changes in market trends across several asset classes over the past fifteen years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include feesand expenses.
THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE OF THE (LAST) CENTURY • NOVEL The Biggest Short Squeeze of the (Last) Century. January 29, 2021 by Jon. An epic stock market battle took place in 1901. Two heavyweights fought for control of a railroad, cornered the market, and forced the biggest short squeeze of the last century. The Union Pacific was a railroad nobody wanted to touch, not even J.P. Morgan, in 1898. LESSONS FROM THE 2021 BERKSHIRE MEETING • NOVEL INVESTOR Lessons from the 2021 Berkshire Meeting. The broad lesson from this year’s Berkshire annual meeting is that successful investing is hard. Especially when it appears to be easy. Of course, that will likely be the lesson when we look back on this period a decade from now too. But until then, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger will againbe
10 LESSONS LEARNED FROM NICK MURRAY • NOVEL INVESTOR 10. Most people misunderstand risk. Murray defines risk for what it really is, not volatility, but permanent loss and outliving your money. Volatility is a temporary concept that passes with time. Most people see it as an excuse to act. Those actions lead to real risks, self-imposed risks, like being forced to take a pay cut in retirement HISTORICAL RETURNS ON STOCKS, BONDS, AND COUNTRIES • NOVEL Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, and Countries. The long term annual returns for the data used in the different asset class tables can found below. It includes annual return data for eight different asset classes, developed market countries, and emerging market countries. Click the link to jump to each table: Returns representtotal annual
THE THEORY OF STOCK EXCHANGE SPECULATION BY ARTHUR CRUMP The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation by Arthur Crump. Buy the Book: Print | eBook. Arthur Crump warns of the many obstacles, behavioral and otherwise, speculators face in the markets. The 1874 classic sits as another example that speculating has been a difficult endeavor for a very long time. THE SPECIAL DIVIDEND TAX RULES • NOVEL INVESTOR A special dividend is a one time dividend payment to shareholders outside of any regularly scheduled dividends, if there are any. Companies usually declare a one time dividend because of very strong earnings or if there is an excessive amount of cash on the balance sheet. But it can be issued for a number of other reasons too. PETER LYNCH ON MARKET HISTORY • NOVEL INVESTOR Peter Lynch is known for his often misinterpreted “invest in what you know” philosophy. To him, part of owning stocks meant knowing what you own (meaning work and research). He also meant knowing market history and Lynch knows it well. He’s better at ANNUAL S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE • NOVEL INVESTOR The chart below breaks down the annual performance of the S&P 500 sectors. Not only do you get an idea of how a small group of stocks affects the S&P each year, you see how each sector performs through economic and stock market cycles. CUT THE WINNERS AND LET THE LOSERS RUN? • NOVEL INVESTOR Cut your losers and let your winners run is an old investing adage. It’s also rarely followed by investors. Instead, investors have an affinity for selling winners. PETER BERNSTEIN: THE IMPORTANCE OF STAYING POWER • NOVEL Peter Bernstein: The Importance of Staying Power. March 19, 2021 by Jon. The behavioral side of investing gets a lot of attention while the personal finance side often gets less than it deserves. That’s because how defensive you are with your finances helps determine how aggressive you can be with your portfolio. CREATE A STOCK WATCH LIST • NOVEL INVESTOR There are a number of great tools you can use to simplify and streamline your investment process. An investor armed with a good stock screener, an investment checklist, and a stock watch list is set for success. There’s a number of reasons to create a watch list. UNDERSTANDING THE REIT TAXATION RULES • NOVEL INVESTOR In return for the corporate tax benefits, REITs must pay out 90% of their taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends. While the REIT tax code simplifies things from a corporate perspective, this is where it gets confusing for shareholders. Each year, shareholders receive Form 1099-DIV that breaks down that dividend distribution TRADING SARDINES • NOVEL INVESTOR Trading Sardines. January 22, 2021 by Jon. One of the big lessons Ben Graham taught in The Intelligent Investor was the difference between investing and speculating. He knew how easily the market distracts investors from their original purpose. Most investors start off with the idea of compounding their money over a long period of time. CHOOSE THE RIGHT DEFAULT COST BASIS METHOD • NOVEL INVESTOR The average cost method is only available for mutual fund shares. That’s why it’s typically the default method for fund companies. The average is figured from taking the total price paid for all your shares, then divided by the total number of shares owned. This may seem like the easiest way, but again, it’s THE CONSEQUENCES OF BEING WRONG • NOVEL INVESTOR Happy Hour: Consequences of Being Wrong. The outcome of any investment lands somewhere in the range of losing everything to making billions. One of those sounds great. The othernot so much. Somewhere in that range, sits a most likely outcome. And knowing what the most likely outcome is, understanding the probability of success, helps with THERE ARE NO BAD ASSETS, JUST BAD PRICES • NOVEL INVESTOR There are no bad assets, just bad prices. “Good” or “bad” is dependant on price. Those prices float in a range from “good” to “bad” and rarely stay on one side very long. Meaning, the market regularly offers investors multiple chances to buy at “good” prices. You only need patience, an open mind, and the stomach to stick CHARLIE MUNGER'S TENDENCIES OF HUMAN MISJUDGMENT • NOVEL Charlie Munger has spent a lifetime attempting to avoid stupid mistakes. He’s given a number of speeches on his experience over the years, that he ultimately compiled into one called: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment. Munger noticed patterns of irrational behavior that led to repeated mistakes, so he set out to finds ways to understand psychology in order to avoid the mistakes himself: NOVEL INVESTOR • COMPOUNDING INVESTING WISDOM...ABOUTTOOLSSTOCK SECTOR RETURNSFOLLOW THE EARNINGSWISE WORDS FROM PHILIP CARRET Peter Lynch was a legend who beat the market in a way few greats could do. From 1977 to 1990, he averaged a 29.7% return with the Magellan Fund. It was the best-performing fund of the 1980s. And yet, Lynch made mistakes. He jokingly admits to it ANNUAL S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE • NOVEL INVESTOR S&P. S&P 500 Index. 9.88%. 32.4%. -37.0%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance is meant to show changes in market trends across the different S&P 500 sectors over the past ten years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include fees and expenses. ANNUAL ASSET CLASS RETURNS • NOVEL INVESTOR AA. Asset Allocation Portfolio*. 7.02%. 24.6%. -22.4%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance shows changes in market trends across several asset classes over the past fifteen years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include feesand expenses.
THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE OF THE (LAST) CENTURY • NOVEL The Biggest Short Squeeze of the (Last) Century. January 29, 2021 by Jon. An epic stock market battle took place in 1901. Two heavyweights fought for control of a railroad, cornered the market, and forced the biggest short squeeze of the last century. The Union Pacific was a railroad nobody wanted to touch, not even J.P. Morgan, in 1898. LESSONS FROM THE 2021 BERKSHIRE MEETING • NOVEL INVESTOR Lessons from the 2021 Berkshire Meeting. The broad lesson from this year’s Berkshire annual meeting is that successful investing is hard. Especially when it appears to be easy. Of course, that will likely be the lesson when we look back on this period a decade from now too. But until then, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger will againbe
10 LESSONS LEARNED FROM NICK MURRAY • NOVEL INVESTOR 10. Most people misunderstand risk. Murray defines risk for what it really is, not volatility, but permanent loss and outliving your money. Volatility is a temporary concept that passes with time. Most people see it as an excuse to act. Those actions lead to real risks, self-imposed risks, like being forced to take a pay cut in retirement HISTORICAL RETURNS ON STOCKS, BONDS, AND COUNTRIES • NOVEL Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, and Countries. The long term annual returns for the data used in the different asset class tables can found below. It includes annual return data for eight different asset classes, developed market countries, and emerging market countries. Click the link to jump to each table: Returns representtotal annual
THE THEORY OF STOCK EXCHANGE SPECULATION BY ARTHUR CRUMP The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation by Arthur Crump. Buy the Book: Print | eBook. Arthur Crump warns of the many obstacles, behavioral and otherwise, speculators face in the markets. The 1874 classic sits as another example that speculating has been a difficult endeavor for a very long time. THE SPECIAL DIVIDEND TAX RULES • NOVEL INVESTOR A special dividend is a one time dividend payment to shareholders outside of any regularly scheduled dividends, if there are any. Companies usually declare a one time dividend because of very strong earnings or if there is an excessive amount of cash on the balance sheet. But it can be issued for a number of other reasons too. PETER LYNCH ON MARKET HISTORY • NOVEL INVESTOR Peter Lynch is known for his often misinterpreted “invest in what you know” philosophy. To him, part of owning stocks meant knowing what you own (meaning work and research). He also meant knowing market history and Lynch knows it well. He’s better at NOVEL INVESTOR • COMPOUNDING INVESTING WISDOM...ABOUTTOOLSSTOCK SECTOR RETURNSFOLLOW THE EARNINGSWISE WORDS FROM PHILIP CARRET Peter Lynch was a legend who beat the market in a way few greats could do. From 1977 to 1990, he averaged a 29.7% return with the Magellan Fund. It was the best-performing fund of the 1980s. And yet, Lynch made mistakes. He jokingly admits to it ANNUAL S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE • NOVEL INVESTOR S&P. S&P 500 Index. 9.88%. 32.4%. -37.0%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance is meant to show changes in market trends across the different S&P 500 sectors over the past ten years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include fees and expenses. ANNUAL ASSET CLASS RETURNS • NOVEL INVESTOR AA. Asset Allocation Portfolio*. 7.02%. 24.6%. -22.4%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance shows changes in market trends across several asset classes over the past fifteen years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include feesand expenses.
THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE OF THE (LAST) CENTURY • NOVEL The Biggest Short Squeeze of the (Last) Century. January 29, 2021 by Jon. An epic stock market battle took place in 1901. Two heavyweights fought for control of a railroad, cornered the market, and forced the biggest short squeeze of the last century. The Union Pacific was a railroad nobody wanted to touch, not even J.P. Morgan, in 1898. LESSONS FROM THE 2021 BERKSHIRE MEETING • NOVEL INVESTOR Lessons from the 2021 Berkshire Meeting. The broad lesson from this year’s Berkshire annual meeting is that successful investing is hard. Especially when it appears to be easy. Of course, that will likely be the lesson when we look back on this period a decade from now too. But until then, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger will againbe
10 LESSONS LEARNED FROM NICK MURRAY • NOVEL INVESTOR 10. Most people misunderstand risk. Murray defines risk for what it really is, not volatility, but permanent loss and outliving your money. Volatility is a temporary concept that passes with time. Most people see it as an excuse to act. Those actions lead to real risks, self-imposed risks, like being forced to take a pay cut in retirement HISTORICAL RETURNS ON STOCKS, BONDS, AND COUNTRIES • NOVEL Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, and Countries. The long term annual returns for the data used in the different asset class tables can found below. It includes annual return data for eight different asset classes, developed market countries, and emerging market countries. Click the link to jump to each table: Returns representtotal annual
THE THEORY OF STOCK EXCHANGE SPECULATION BY ARTHUR CRUMP The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation by Arthur Crump. Buy the Book: Print | eBook. Arthur Crump warns of the many obstacles, behavioral and otherwise, speculators face in the markets. The 1874 classic sits as another example that speculating has been a difficult endeavor for a very long time. THE SPECIAL DIVIDEND TAX RULES • NOVEL INVESTOR A special dividend is a one time dividend payment to shareholders outside of any regularly scheduled dividends, if there are any. Companies usually declare a one time dividend because of very strong earnings or if there is an excessive amount of cash on the balance sheet. But it can be issued for a number of other reasons too. PETER LYNCH ON MARKET HISTORY • NOVEL INVESTOR Peter Lynch is known for his often misinterpreted “invest in what you know” philosophy. To him, part of owning stocks meant knowing what you own (meaning work and research). He also meant knowing market history and Lynch knows it well. He’s better at ANNUAL S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE • NOVEL INVESTOR The chart below breaks down the annual performance of the S&P 500 sectors. Not only do you get an idea of how a small group of stocks affects the S&P each year, you see how each sector performs through economic and stock market cycles. CUT THE WINNERS AND LET THE LOSERS RUN? • NOVEL INVESTOR Cut your losers and let your winners run is an old investing adage. It’s also rarely followed by investors. Instead, investors have an affinity for selling winners. PETER BERNSTEIN: THE IMPORTANCE OF STAYING POWER • NOVEL Peter Bernstein: The Importance of Staying Power. March 19, 2021 by Jon. The behavioral side of investing gets a lot of attention while the personal finance side often gets less than it deserves. That’s because how defensive you are with your finances helps determine how aggressive you can be with your portfolio. CREATE A STOCK WATCH LIST • NOVEL INVESTOR There are a number of great tools you can use to simplify and streamline your investment process. An investor armed with a good stock screener, an investment checklist, and a stock watch list is set for success. There’s a number of reasons to create a watch list. UNDERSTANDING THE REIT TAXATION RULES • NOVEL INVESTOR In return for the corporate tax benefits, REITs must pay out 90% of their taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends. While the REIT tax code simplifies things from a corporate perspective, this is where it gets confusing for shareholders. Each year, shareholders receive Form 1099-DIV that breaks down that dividend distribution TRADING SARDINES • NOVEL INVESTOR Trading Sardines. January 22, 2021 by Jon. One of the big lessons Ben Graham taught in The Intelligent Investor was the difference between investing and speculating. He knew how easily the market distracts investors from their original purpose. Most investors start off with the idea of compounding their money over a long period of time. CHOOSE THE RIGHT DEFAULT COST BASIS METHOD • NOVEL INVESTOR The average cost method is only available for mutual fund shares. That’s why it’s typically the default method for fund companies. The average is figured from taking the total price paid for all your shares, then divided by the total number of shares owned. This may seem like the easiest way, but again, it’s THE CONSEQUENCES OF BEING WRONG • NOVEL INVESTOR Happy Hour: Consequences of Being Wrong. The outcome of any investment lands somewhere in the range of losing everything to making billions. One of those sounds great. The othernot so much. Somewhere in that range, sits a most likely outcome. And knowing what the most likely outcome is, understanding the probability of success, helps with THERE ARE NO BAD ASSETS, JUST BAD PRICES • NOVEL INVESTOR There are no bad assets, just bad prices. “Good” or “bad” is dependant on price. Those prices float in a range from “good” to “bad” and rarely stay on one side very long. Meaning, the market regularly offers investors multiple chances to buy at “good” prices. You only need patience, an open mind, and the stomach to stick CHARLIE MUNGER'S TENDENCIES OF HUMAN MISJUDGMENT • NOVEL Charlie Munger has spent a lifetime attempting to avoid stupid mistakes. He’s given a number of speeches on his experience over the years, that he ultimately compiled into one called: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment. Munger noticed patterns of irrational behavior that led to repeated mistakes, so he set out to finds ways to understand psychology in order to avoid the mistakes himself: NOVEL INVESTOR • COMPOUNDING INVESTING WISDOM...ABOUTTOOLSSTOCK SECTOR RETURNSFOLLOW THE EARNINGSWISE WORDS FROM PHILIP CARRET Peter Lynch was a legend who beat the market in a way few greats could do. From 1977 to 1990, he averaged a 29.7% return with the Magellan Fund. It was the best-performing fund of the 1980s. And yet, Lynch made mistakes. He jokingly admits to it ANNUAL S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE • NOVEL INVESTOR S&P. S&P 500 Index. 9.88%. 32.4%. -37.0%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance is meant to show changes in market trends across the different S&P 500 sectors over the past ten years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include fees and expenses. ANNUAL ASSET CLASS RETURNS • NOVEL INVESTOR AA. Asset Allocation Portfolio*. 7.02%. 24.6%. -22.4%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance shows changes in market trends across several asset classes over the past fifteen years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include feesand expenses.
THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE OF THE (LAST) CENTURY • NOVEL The Biggest Short Squeeze of the (Last) Century. January 29, 2021 by Jon. An epic stock market battle took place in 1901. Two heavyweights fought for control of a railroad, cornered the market, and forced the biggest short squeeze of the last century. The Union Pacific was a railroad nobody wanted to touch, not even J.P. Morgan, in 1898. LESSONS FROM THE 2021 BERKSHIRE MEETING • NOVEL INVESTOR Lessons from the 2021 Berkshire Meeting. The broad lesson from this year’s Berkshire annual meeting is that successful investing is hard. Especially when it appears to be easy. Of course, that will likely be the lesson when we look back on this period a decade from now too. But until then, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger will againbe
10 LESSONS LEARNED FROM NICK MURRAY • NOVEL INVESTOR 10. Most people misunderstand risk. Murray defines risk for what it really is, not volatility, but permanent loss and outliving your money. Volatility is a temporary concept that passes with time. Most people see it as an excuse to act. Those actions lead to real risks, self-imposed risks, like being forced to take a pay cut in retirement HISTORICAL RETURNS ON STOCKS, BONDS, AND COUNTRIES • NOVEL Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, and Countries. The long term annual returns for the data used in the different asset class tables can found below. It includes annual return data for eight different asset classes, developed market countries, and emerging market countries. Click the link to jump to each table: Returns representtotal annual
THE THEORY OF STOCK EXCHANGE SPECULATION BY ARTHUR CRUMP The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation by Arthur Crump. Buy the Book: Print | eBook. Arthur Crump warns of the many obstacles, behavioral and otherwise, speculators face in the markets. The 1874 classic sits as another example that speculating has been a difficult endeavor for a very long time. THE SPECIAL DIVIDEND TAX RULES • NOVEL INVESTOR A special dividend is a one time dividend payment to shareholders outside of any regularly scheduled dividends, if there are any. Companies usually declare a one time dividend because of very strong earnings or if there is an excessive amount of cash on the balance sheet. But it can be issued for a number of other reasons too. PETER LYNCH ON MARKET HISTORY • NOVEL INVESTOR Peter Lynch is known for his often misinterpreted “invest in what you know” philosophy. To him, part of owning stocks meant knowing what you own (meaning work and research). He also meant knowing market history and Lynch knows it well. He’s better at NOVEL INVESTOR • COMPOUNDING INVESTING WISDOM...ABOUTTOOLSSTOCK SECTOR RETURNSFOLLOW THE EARNINGSWISE WORDS FROM PHILIP CARRET Peter Lynch was a legend who beat the market in a way few greats could do. From 1977 to 1990, he averaged a 29.7% return with the Magellan Fund. It was the best-performing fund of the 1980s. And yet, Lynch made mistakes. He jokingly admits to it ANNUAL S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE • NOVEL INVESTOR S&P. S&P 500 Index. 9.88%. 32.4%. -37.0%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance is meant to show changes in market trends across the different S&P 500 sectors over the past ten years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include fees and expenses. ANNUAL ASSET CLASS RETURNS • NOVEL INVESTOR AA. Asset Allocation Portfolio*. 7.02%. 24.6%. -22.4%. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The historical performance shows changes in market trends across several asset classes over the past fifteen years. Returns represent total annual returns (reinvestment of all distributions) and does not include feesand expenses.
THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE OF THE (LAST) CENTURY • NOVEL The Biggest Short Squeeze of the (Last) Century. January 29, 2021 by Jon. An epic stock market battle took place in 1901. Two heavyweights fought for control of a railroad, cornered the market, and forced the biggest short squeeze of the last century. The Union Pacific was a railroad nobody wanted to touch, not even J.P. Morgan, in 1898. LESSONS FROM THE 2021 BERKSHIRE MEETING • NOVEL INVESTOR Lessons from the 2021 Berkshire Meeting. The broad lesson from this year’s Berkshire annual meeting is that successful investing is hard. Especially when it appears to be easy. Of course, that will likely be the lesson when we look back on this period a decade from now too. But until then, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger will againbe
10 LESSONS LEARNED FROM NICK MURRAY • NOVEL INVESTOR 10. Most people misunderstand risk. Murray defines risk for what it really is, not volatility, but permanent loss and outliving your money. Volatility is a temporary concept that passes with time. Most people see it as an excuse to act. Those actions lead to real risks, self-imposed risks, like being forced to take a pay cut in retirement HISTORICAL RETURNS ON STOCKS, BONDS, AND COUNTRIES • NOVEL Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, and Countries. The long term annual returns for the data used in the different asset class tables can found below. It includes annual return data for eight different asset classes, developed market countries, and emerging market countries. Click the link to jump to each table: Returns representtotal annual
THE THEORY OF STOCK EXCHANGE SPECULATION BY ARTHUR CRUMP The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation by Arthur Crump. Buy the Book: Print | eBook. Arthur Crump warns of the many obstacles, behavioral and otherwise, speculators face in the markets. The 1874 classic sits as another example that speculating has been a difficult endeavor for a very long time. THE SPECIAL DIVIDEND TAX RULES • NOVEL INVESTOR A special dividend is a one time dividend payment to shareholders outside of any regularly scheduled dividends, if there are any. Companies usually declare a one time dividend because of very strong earnings or if there is an excessive amount of cash on the balance sheet. But it can be issued for a number of other reasons too. PETER LYNCH ON MARKET HISTORY • NOVEL INVESTOR Peter Lynch is known for his often misinterpreted “invest in what you know” philosophy. To him, part of owning stocks meant knowing what you own (meaning work and research). He also meant knowing market history and Lynch knows it well. He’s better at ANNUAL S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE • NOVEL INVESTOR The chart below breaks down the annual performance of the S&P 500 sectors. Not only do you get an idea of how a small group of stocks affects the S&P each year, you see how each sector performs through economic and stock market cycles. CUT THE WINNERS AND LET THE LOSERS RUN? • NOVEL INVESTOR Cut your losers and let your winners run is an old investing adage. It’s also rarely followed by investors. Instead, investors have an affinity for selling winners. PETER BERNSTEIN: THE IMPORTANCE OF STAYING POWER • NOVEL Peter Bernstein: The Importance of Staying Power. March 19, 2021 by Jon. The behavioral side of investing gets a lot of attention while the personal finance side often gets less than it deserves. That’s because how defensive you are with your finances helps determine how aggressive you can be with your portfolio. CREATE A STOCK WATCH LIST • NOVEL INVESTOR There are a number of great tools you can use to simplify and streamline your investment process. An investor armed with a good stock screener, an investment checklist, and a stock watch list is set for success. There’s a number of reasons to create a watch list. UNDERSTANDING THE REIT TAXATION RULES • NOVEL INVESTOR In return for the corporate tax benefits, REITs must pay out 90% of their taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends. While the REIT tax code simplifies things from a corporate perspective, this is where it gets confusing for shareholders. Each year, shareholders receive Form 1099-DIV that breaks down that dividend distribution TRADING SARDINES • NOVEL INVESTOR Trading Sardines. January 22, 2021 by Jon. One of the big lessons Ben Graham taught in The Intelligent Investor was the difference between investing and speculating. He knew how easily the market distracts investors from their original purpose. Most investors start off with the idea of compounding their money over a long period of time. CHOOSE THE RIGHT DEFAULT COST BASIS METHOD • NOVEL INVESTOR The average cost method is only available for mutual fund shares. That’s why it’s typically the default method for fund companies. The average is figured from taking the total price paid for all your shares, then divided by the total number of shares owned. This may seem like the easiest way, but again, it’s THE CONSEQUENCES OF BEING WRONG • NOVEL INVESTOR Happy Hour: Consequences of Being Wrong. The outcome of any investment lands somewhere in the range of losing everything to making billions. One of those sounds great. The othernot so much. Somewhere in that range, sits a most likely outcome. And knowing what the most likely outcome is, understanding the probability of success, helps with THERE ARE NO BAD ASSETS, JUST BAD PRICES • NOVEL INVESTOR There are no bad assets, just bad prices. “Good” or “bad” is dependant on price. Those prices float in a range from “good” to “bad” and rarely stay on one side very long. Meaning, the market regularly offers investors multiple chances to buy at “good” prices. You only need patience, an open mind, and the stomach to stick CHARLIE MUNGER'S TENDENCIES OF HUMAN MISJUDGMENT • NOVEL Charlie Munger has spent a lifetime attempting to avoid stupid mistakes. He’s given a number of speeches on his experience over the years, that he ultimately compiled into one called: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment. Munger noticed patterns of irrational behavior that led to repeated mistakes, so he set out to finds ways to understand psychology in order to avoid the mistakes himself:NOVEL INVESTOR
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WISE WORDS ON SPECULATIONJune 4, 2021 by Jon
Ben Graham once alluded to the idea that the market cycle might as well be called the human-nature cycle… Because the rise and fall of speculative behavior follow the same path. Graham, of course, meant it as a warning. He saw speculation as an attempt to profit purely off of moves in market prices. Nothing else matters. Not valuation, earnings, cash flows, or what management is doing to improve the business. Justprice.
In other words, if you’re buying a stock with the hope of flipping it to someone else at a higher price, then you’re speculating. The keyword being _hope._ When you buy a stock for no reason other than the price is going up, you’re gonna need it. You might as well be gambling. Continue Reading… WARREN BUFFETT ON ADAM SMITH’S MONEY WORLDJune 2, 2021 by Jon
Warren Buffett made an appearance on Adam Smith’s Money World in 1985. Adam Smith is the author of _The Money Game_and
_Supermoney_
. He’s also
George Goodman’s pen name. Buffett has shared his investment wisdom for decades. He’s been repeating some version of it since he learned it from Ben Graham. Timeless concepts like capital preservation, temperament over IQ, buying good _value_, circle of competence, and how stocks are a portion of a business not a piece of paper are covered. If you’ve heard Buffett’s mantra before, this won’t be new to you but the reminder is worth it. Take the time to read the transcript below. Continue Reading… PETER LYNCH ON COMMON INVESTOR MISTAKESMay 28, 2021 by Jon
Peter Lynch was a legend who beat the market in a way few greats could do. From 1977 to 1990, he averaged a 29.7% return with the Magellan Fund. It was the best-performing fund of the 1980s. And yet, Lynch made mistakes. He jokingly admits to it often. He just did _mistakes_ better than most investors too. Lucky for us, he had a knack for simplifying the difficulties of investing. His ability to cut to the heart of what it takes to make money, in the long run, is refreshing. And yet it’s still mostly ignored because the riches don’t come quick enough. As a guest on _Wall Street Week_, in 1990, he explained why patience is key. It was one of several common mistakes he covered during the segment. Be it market timing, predictions, not knowing what you own, or lack of effort, the mistakes are universal. Lynch’s take is a good reminder of the trouble we can get ourselves into at times.Continue Reading…
HOW CLASSIC VALUE METRICS PERFORMED THIS CENTURYMay 26, 2021 by Jon
Certain pockets of the market tend to outperform others. The classic value metrics like price-to-earnings or price-to-book were the first to be discovered back in Ben Graham’s era. Since then numerous value metrics have shown better results (we’ll get to those at laterdate).
Value metrics work in the long run mainly because of mean reversion and a side of behavioral bias. Investors tend to place bets based on popularity and recency bias. As Graham said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine…” The thinking goes like this. Companies doing well will continue to do well and companies doing poorly will continue to do poorly and nothing will change that. This works for a while until mean reversion steps in. Mean reversion is the tendency for fundamentals and stock prices to revert to a long-run average thanks to competition. Excellent companies, with high-profit margins and growth rates, that make a ton of money, get priced with that mind but they also attract competition. That competition puts pressure on profit margins, growth rates, etc. which feeds into P/E ratios, stock prices, and more. In other words, the excellent company becomes an average company and markets eventually adjust its stock price to that reality. ContinueReading…
HOW A LACK OF FEAR UPENDS MARKETSMay 21, 2021 by Jon
Wolf packs were absent from Yellowstone for 70 years. It completely changed the behavior of other animals. It removed fear from thesystem.
Survival for most animals means finding a balance between eating and watching for predators. Fear plays a vital role in keeping animals alive. But when you remove the top of the food chain, like wolves, the balance tilts to one side and upends the system. Without wolves in Yellowstone, elk could eat without fear of predators. They could sit in one place and graze all day. More offspring also survived which did the same. Eventually, the number of elk grew beyond the capacity of the park. In other words, they ate and ate and ate until they ate at a faster rate than the trees and other vegetation could grow. After seven decades, they grazed the park clean of new saplings. That changed the landscape, forced other animals to change their habits (or leave for other habitats), and upended theecosystem.
But that all changed in 1995. The reintroduction of wolves to the park forced the elk to change their behavior. They quickly learned they couldn’t sit around and eat all day. They had to move more often. They were more vigilant of predators. So they ate less and avoided higher-risk areas of the park. Things compounded from there. ContinueReading…
WISE WORDS FROM LOU SIMPSONMay 19, 2021 by Jon
Lou Simpson is largely unknown, even among investors. Yet, he quietly racked up a track record that bested the S&P 500 by 6.8%. In 1979, GEICO was looking for someone to run its investment portfolio. Part of the hiring process included an interview with some guy named Warren Buffett. After four hours with Simpson, Buffett told GEICO’s CEO to hire the guy. He would produce a 20.3% return(vs the S&P
500’s 13.5%) for GEICO over the next 25 years! Upon his retirement in 2010, Buffett stated in Berkshire’s 2010 letter, “Simply
put, Lou is one of the investment greats.” Simpson’s philosophy is similar to Buffett’s and Philip Fisher’s. It revolves around a few main tenants and is best described as concentrated, long-term bets in great businesses with great management at reasonable prices. It’s an approach that is easier said than done. Thanks to a few rare interviews over the years, he’s expanded on those ideas. Continue Reading…* 1
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