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NORTHMANTRADER
Fragile: Handle with Care. By Sven Henrich on May 5, 2021 • ( 31 Comments ) What a circus. I imagine there’s a big sign in every Fed building in America: Don’t drop, fragile, handle with care. Janet Yellen, while no longer in a Fed building, committed the Postsnavigation.
THE TRAP – NORTHMANTRADER Markets continue to be engaged in a very subtle battle for control. Having just witnessed another minor pullback of 5% or so here in May one can certainly argue it’s business as usual in 2021HEDGE MYTH?
My general view here: Bitcoin will remain a successful speculative asset as long as equities keep rising and confidence can be maintained and accelerated. So far Bitcoin has proven it can outpace equities on the way up. The claim that it is a hedge against THE SECRET – NORTHMANTRADER The secret is out. It can no longer be denied and it’s up to each and everyone of us to help bring the secret to the forefront of public awareness. For the mainstream financial media won̵THE BULL CASE
The Bull Case. Time to put up or shut up for bulls and bears as we enter the final 2 months of the year and with the US election just a few days away. As traders are watching the ongoing stimulus headline drama unfolding the bull case may be rather obvious but worth highlighting in the charts. At a time when valuations no longer seemto matter
HAS THE BUBBLE ALREADY POPPED? At least nobody can say the warning signs weren’t there when the realization sinks in that the bubble may have already popped. For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services. All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or tradingadvice.
2021: THE ALTERNATIVE VIEW As promised some views and chart perspectives on the upcoming year of 2021. I’m titling this 2021: The Alternative View simply because Wall Street consensus is again entirely bullish for 2021 driven by the presumed view of a strong economic recovery to come along with continued aggressive central bank intervention. Fair enough and let’s assume this to be the base case.DROPPING THE HAMMER
Dropping the Hammer. The ritual has become as old and stale as it has become predictable: A central bank promises to continue the free money spigot and market participants pile into risk assets as we witnessed again with both stocks and supposed “hedge” assets such as Bitcoin immediately rallying in concert following yesterday’s Fed TRAGEDY – NORTHMANTRADER No 14 year old should have to receive the news that their best friend has taken their own life. It was a difficult conversation. Denial, anger, grief, despair, shock, the need for answers when there are few. After initial shock and disbelief our son broke down in tears. He misses his friend deeply. $VIX CRUSH – NORTHMANTRADER But of course it doesn’t happen every month and not in the same way, but more often than not it happens in most months in one shape or another. 2017 was particularly brutal for fans of volatility.NORTHMANTRADER
Fragile: Handle with Care. By Sven Henrich on May 5, 2021 • ( 31 Comments ) What a circus. I imagine there’s a big sign in every Fed building in America: Don’t drop, fragile, handle with care. Janet Yellen, while no longer in a Fed building, committed the Postsnavigation.
THE TRAP – NORTHMANTRADER Markets continue to be engaged in a very subtle battle for control. Having just witnessed another minor pullback of 5% or so here in May one can certainly argue it’s business as usual in 2021HEDGE MYTH?
My general view here: Bitcoin will remain a successful speculative asset as long as equities keep rising and confidence can be maintained and accelerated. So far Bitcoin has proven it can outpace equities on the way up. The claim that it is a hedge against THE SECRET – NORTHMANTRADER The secret is out. It can no longer be denied and it’s up to each and everyone of us to help bring the secret to the forefront of public awareness. For the mainstream financial media won̵THE BULL CASE
The Bull Case. Time to put up or shut up for bulls and bears as we enter the final 2 months of the year and with the US election just a few days away. As traders are watching the ongoing stimulus headline drama unfolding the bull case may be rather obvious but worth highlighting in the charts. At a time when valuations no longer seemto matter
HAS THE BUBBLE ALREADY POPPED? At least nobody can say the warning signs weren’t there when the realization sinks in that the bubble may have already popped. For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services. All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or tradingadvice.
2021: THE ALTERNATIVE VIEW As promised some views and chart perspectives on the upcoming year of 2021. I’m titling this 2021: The Alternative View simply because Wall Street consensus is again entirely bullish for 2021 driven by the presumed view of a strong economic recovery to come along with continued aggressive central bank intervention. Fair enough and let’s assume this to be the base case.DROPPING THE HAMMER
Dropping the Hammer. The ritual has become as old and stale as it has become predictable: A central bank promises to continue the free money spigot and market participants pile into risk assets as we witnessed again with both stocks and supposed “hedge” assets such as Bitcoin immediately rallying in concert following yesterday’s Fed TRAGEDY – NORTHMANTRADER No 14 year old should have to receive the news that their best friend has taken their own life. It was a difficult conversation. Denial, anger, grief, despair, shock, the need for answers when there are few. After initial shock and disbelief our son broke down in tears. He misses his friend deeply. $VIX CRUSH – NORTHMANTRADER But of course it doesn’t happen every month and not in the same way, but more often than not it happens in most months in one shape or another. 2017 was particularly brutal for fans of volatility.MARKET DASHBOARD
Subscriber access. To subscribe please visit Market Services on NorthmanTrader.com. Whereas the Daily Market Brief goes into depth on macro and technical charts and our strategic outlook, the Marke 00 – NORTHMANTRADER Visit the post for more. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed. THE RECORD – NORTHMANTRADER The Record. March 23, 2020. The day of the bottom and markets never looked back a few intermittent corrections aside. Central bankers have done it again: Print the world out of another crisis and they are basking in their own glory keen on continuing on a path of permanent intervention that appears to be consequence free.IT’S COMING
No, it’s all rather mundane action ahead of this week’s closely watched CPI print and next week’s quad witch OPEX and the Fed meeting. New highs are very possible and consistent with the backtest scenario described in The Trap and even with the emergent divergence in Transports.. However, new highs or not, one of our favorite charts to track is again warning of the coming end to the calm. NDXD – NORTHMANTRADER Visit the post for more. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed. TRANSPORTS – NORTHMANTRADER As you may recall transports didn’t buy the finally rally in early 2020 either. It’s a warning signal we’ve seen repeated throughout the years: 2007 and 2015 come to mind as transports suddenly refused to make new highs while the broader market still made new highs beforegetting clocked.
FROTH – NORTHMANTRADER So Powell finally used the F word: Froth.Being non specific though as one would expect and being super careful as to not overtly link monetary policies to the said froth we can note some faint sense of recognition on the side of central bankers that the liquidity avalanche they have unleashed has resulted in market distortions. 2021: THE ALTERNATIVE VIEW As promised some views and chart perspectives on the upcoming year of 2021. I’m titling this 2021: The Alternative View simply because Wall Street consensus is again entirely bullish for 2021 driven by the presumed view of a strong economic recovery to come along with continued aggressive central bank intervention. Fair enough and let’s assume this to be the base case. VIX CHECK – NORTHMANTRADER But now with a couple of volatility events into the year we can also note a forming compression pattern, lower highs and lower lows. Look no further then to 2017 to see that these type of structures can take many months to form and to ultimately SPX15 – NORTHMANTRADER Visit the post for more. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.NORTHMANTRADER
Fragile: Handle with Care. By Sven Henrich on May 5, 2021 • ( 31 Comments ) What a circus. I imagine there’s a big sign in every Fed building in America: Don’t drop, fragile, handle with care. Janet Yellen, while no longer in a Fed building, committed the Postsnavigation.
THE SECRET – NORTHMANTRADER The Secret. By Sven Henrich on May 16, 2021 • ( 74 Comments ) The secret is out. It can no longer be denied and it’s up to each and everyone of us to help bring the secret to the forefront of public awareness. For the mainstream financial media won’t do it, indeed they allow the guardians of the secret to continue to deny itsexistence.
FRAGILE: HANDLE WITH CARE Fragile: Handle with Care. What a circus. I imagine there’s a big sign in every Fed building in America: Don’t drop, fragile, handle with care. Janet Yellen, while no longer in a Fed building, committed the cardinal sin of pointing out the obvious yesterday: Rates may haveto
FROTH – NORTHMANTRADER So Powell finally used the F word: Froth.Being non specific though as one would expect and being super careful as to not overtly link monetary policies to the said froth we can note some faint sense of recognition on the side of central bankers that the liquidity avalanche they have unleashed has resulted in market distortions.HEDGE MYTH?
My general view here: Bitcoin will remain a successful speculative asset as long as equities keep rising and confidence can be maintained and accelerated. So far Bitcoin has proven it can outpace equities on the way up. The claim that it is a hedge against RISK FREE – NORTHMANTRADER There is no mystery. As such markets have turned entirely risk free and down days have been eliminated: And so far the warning signs from weakening internals have not mattered. But it’s a process, it always is. Hence being cognizant of structures, patterns and history is critical to manage exposure and positioning. HAS THE BUBBLE ALREADY POPPED? At least nobody can say the warning signs weren’t there when the realization sinks in that the bubble may have already popped. For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services. All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or tradingadvice.
VIX CHECK – NORTHMANTRADER But now with a couple of volatility events into the year we can also note a forming compression pattern, lower highs and lower lows. Look no further then to 2017 to see that these type of structures can take many months to form and to ultimatelyTHE BIG FRAT PARTY
I trust nobody was surprised by the big market rally last week. After all we’re all joyful attendees of a big frat party, indeed one could argue the biggest perpetual frat party of all time where the hosts are offering an infinite free supply of booze, coke and hookers. TECHNOLOGY CYCLE HITTING A BRICK WALL? The answer we heard for months now was: Wearable devices. Smart watches. And the appetite was wetted with amazing and cool looking designs that popped up all over the place:NORTHMANTRADER
Fragile: Handle with Care. By Sven Henrich on May 5, 2021 • ( 31 Comments ) What a circus. I imagine there’s a big sign in every Fed building in America: Don’t drop, fragile, handle with care. Janet Yellen, while no longer in a Fed building, committed the Postsnavigation.
THE SECRET – NORTHMANTRADER The Secret. By Sven Henrich on May 16, 2021 • ( 74 Comments ) The secret is out. It can no longer be denied and it’s up to each and everyone of us to help bring the secret to the forefront of public awareness. For the mainstream financial media won’t do it, indeed they allow the guardians of the secret to continue to deny itsexistence.
FRAGILE: HANDLE WITH CARE Fragile: Handle with Care. What a circus. I imagine there’s a big sign in every Fed building in America: Don’t drop, fragile, handle with care. Janet Yellen, while no longer in a Fed building, committed the cardinal sin of pointing out the obvious yesterday: Rates may haveto
FROTH – NORTHMANTRADER So Powell finally used the F word: Froth.Being non specific though as one would expect and being super careful as to not overtly link monetary policies to the said froth we can note some faint sense of recognition on the side of central bankers that the liquidity avalanche they have unleashed has resulted in market distortions.HEDGE MYTH?
My general view here: Bitcoin will remain a successful speculative asset as long as equities keep rising and confidence can be maintained and accelerated. So far Bitcoin has proven it can outpace equities on the way up. The claim that it is a hedge against RISK FREE – NORTHMANTRADER There is no mystery. As such markets have turned entirely risk free and down days have been eliminated: And so far the warning signs from weakening internals have not mattered. But it’s a process, it always is. Hence being cognizant of structures, patterns and history is critical to manage exposure and positioning. HAS THE BUBBLE ALREADY POPPED? At least nobody can say the warning signs weren’t there when the realization sinks in that the bubble may have already popped. For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services. All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or tradingadvice.
VIX CHECK – NORTHMANTRADER But now with a couple of volatility events into the year we can also note a forming compression pattern, lower highs and lower lows. Look no further then to 2017 to see that these type of structures can take many months to form and to ultimatelyTHE BIG FRAT PARTY
I trust nobody was surprised by the big market rally last week. After all we’re all joyful attendees of a big frat party, indeed one could argue the biggest perpetual frat party of all time where the hosts are offering an infinite free supply of booze, coke and hookers. TECHNOLOGY CYCLE HITTING A BRICK WALL? The answer we heard for months now was: Wearable devices. Smart watches. And the appetite was wetted with amazing and cool looking designs that popped up all over the place: THE RECORD – NORTHMANTRADER The Record. March 23, 2020. The day of the bottom and markets never looked back a few intermittent corrections aside. Central bankers have done it again: Print the world out of another crisis and they are basking in their own glory keen on continuing on a path of permanent intervention that appears to be consequence free.DAILY MARKET BRIEF
Subscriber content. To subscribe to the Daily Market Brief please visit Market Services on NorthmanTrader.com. The Daily Market Brief is an in-depth market analysis published each trading day TRANSPORTS – NORTHMANTRADER As you may recall transports didn’t buy the finally rally in early 2020 either. It’s a warning signal we’ve seen repeated throughout the years: 2007 and 2015 come to mind as transports suddenly refused to make new highs while the broader market still made new highs beforegetting clocked.
IT’S COMING
No, it’s all rather mundane action ahead of this week’s closely watched CPI print and next week’s quad witch OPEX and the Fed meeting. New highs are very possible and consistent with the backtest scenario described in The Trap and even with the emergent divergence in Transports.. However, new highs or not, one of our favorite charts to track is again warning of the coming end to the calm.TECHNICAL PIVOTS
At the end of the day technical analysis is not some magic potion but it’s a tool we use to identify risk vs reward and trade set-ups on the short side as well as the long side, especially also knowing when patterns are invalid and when price pivots indicate a potent shift in direction. It is an exhaustive topic, hence for the purposes of 2021: THE ALTERNATIVE VIEW As promised some views and chart perspectives on the upcoming year of 2021. I’m titling this 2021: The Alternative View simply because Wall Street consensus is again entirely bullish for 2021 driven by the presumed view of a strong economic recovery to come along with continued aggressive central bank intervention. Fair enough and let’s assume this to be the base case. RUT6 – NORTHMANTRADER Visit the post for more. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.DROPPING THE HAMMER
Dropping the Hammer. The ritual has become as old and stale as it has become predictable: A central bank promises to continue the free money spigot and market participants pile into risk assets as we witnessed again with both stocks and supposed “hedge” assets such as Bitcoin immediately rallying in concert following yesterday’s Fed SPX15 – NORTHMANTRADER Visit the post for more. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.SVEN HENRICH
Sven Henrich. Sven Henrich is founder and the lead market strategist for NorthmanTrader and a highly respected technical analyst and commentator about markets & the macro economic environment and is a frequent contributor to CNBC, CNN Business and to MarketWatch.NORTHMANTRADER
Fragile: Handle with Care. By Sven Henrich on May 5, 2021 • ( 31 Comments ) What a circus. I imagine there’s a big sign in every Fed building in America: Don’t drop, fragile, handle with care. Janet Yellen, while no longer in a Fed building, committed the Postsnavigation.
ABOUT US – NORTHMANTRADERCONTACTMEDIA Sven Henrich publishes the Daily Market Brief keeping investors and traders abreast of the latest market critical technical and macro developments as well as market directional strategy. He publishes technical and live updates on his private twitter feed. Sven is the lead market strategist for NorthmanTrader and a highly respected technical analyst and commentator about markets & the macro MEDIA – NORTHMANTRADER Media. Sven Henrich is a highly respected technical analyst of markets & the macro economic environment. Please see some of his public appearances and published works below. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services. Fox Business: Thanks @MelissaLeeCNBC & @CNBCFastMoney for having me on the show.MARKET SERVICES
Market Services. Our mission is to identify actionable Technical SetUps employing best in class market analysis incorporating both macro views and technical analysis along with our proprietary analytical systems to derive a favorable risk/reward trade direction for our subscribers. We are independent and our analysis is unbiased and not influenced by assets under management.MARKET VIDEOS
Market Videos. Technical market videos have shown to be immensely popular with traders and investors alike as the voiceover perspective adds not only a personalized experience, but also a more in-depth and clearer way to communicate technical chart details more effectively. Video format are in HD quality and are generally around 30 min in THE SECRET – NORTHMANTRADER The Secret. By Sven Henrich on May 16, 2021 • ( 74 Comments ) The secret is out. It can no longer be denied and it’s up to each and everyone of us to help bring the secret to the forefront of public awareness. For the mainstream financial media won’t do it, indeed they allow the guardians of the secret to continue to deny itsexistence.
HAS THE BUBBLE ALREADY POPPED? At least nobody can say the warning signs weren’t there when the realization sinks in that the bubble may have already popped. For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services. All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or tradingadvice.
$VIX CRUSH – NORTHMANTRADER But of course it doesn’t happen every month and not in the same way, but more often than not it happens in most months in one shape or another. 2017 was particularly brutal for fans of volatility.CHART CRIME
Yes there’s a reason that chart has the phrase “Bid Downgrade” on top of it. Moody’s recently downgraded junk debt: “Baa 3-grade corporate debt outstanding reached an “unprecedented” 56.8% of speculative-grade, or “junk,” high-yield corporate bonds outstanding. By comparison, the ratio of outstanding Baa 3-rated bondsto high
$VIX CRUSH – NORTHMANTRADER as you know, I disagreed with you as to timing on a rally in Nov/early Dec and thought the rally would only come after tax selling pressure was off//i ended up unsubscribing from your paid service, but I so thoroughly agree with you now that I bought puts in BA friday when it was up a couple and now am already in good shapeI will likely buy Vixy tomorrow as I agree with you there as wellNORTHMANTRADER
Fragile: Handle with Care. By Sven Henrich on May 5, 2021 • ( 31 Comments ) What a circus. I imagine there’s a big sign in every Fed building in America: Don’t drop, fragile, handle with care. Janet Yellen, while no longer in a Fed building, committed the Postsnavigation.
ABOUT US – NORTHMANTRADERCONTACTMEDIA Sven Henrich publishes the Daily Market Brief keeping investors and traders abreast of the latest market critical technical and macro developments as well as market directional strategy. He publishes technical and live updates on his private twitter feed. Sven is the lead market strategist for NorthmanTrader and a highly respected technical analyst and commentator about markets & the macro MEDIA – NORTHMANTRADER Media. Sven Henrich is a highly respected technical analyst of markets & the macro economic environment. Please see some of his public appearances and published works below. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services. Fox Business: Thanks @MelissaLeeCNBC & @CNBCFastMoney for having me on the show.MARKET SERVICES
Market Services. Our mission is to identify actionable Technical SetUps employing best in class market analysis incorporating both macro views and technical analysis along with our proprietary analytical systems to derive a favorable risk/reward trade direction for our subscribers. We are independent and our analysis is unbiased and not influenced by assets under management.MARKET VIDEOS
Market Videos. Technical market videos have shown to be immensely popular with traders and investors alike as the voiceover perspective adds not only a personalized experience, but also a more in-depth and clearer way to communicate technical chart details more effectively. Video format are in HD quality and are generally around 30 min in THE SECRET – NORTHMANTRADER The Secret. By Sven Henrich on May 16, 2021 • ( 74 Comments ) The secret is out. It can no longer be denied and it’s up to each and everyone of us to help bring the secret to the forefront of public awareness. For the mainstream financial media won’t do it, indeed they allow the guardians of the secret to continue to deny itsexistence.
HAS THE BUBBLE ALREADY POPPED? At least nobody can say the warning signs weren’t there when the realization sinks in that the bubble may have already popped. For the latest public analysis please visit NorthmanTrader. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services. All content is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment or tradingadvice.
$VIX CRUSH – NORTHMANTRADER But of course it doesn’t happen every month and not in the same way, but more often than not it happens in most months in one shape or another. 2017 was particularly brutal for fans of volatility.CHART CRIME
Yes there’s a reason that chart has the phrase “Bid Downgrade” on top of it. Moody’s recently downgraded junk debt: “Baa 3-grade corporate debt outstanding reached an “unprecedented” 56.8% of speculative-grade, or “junk,” high-yield corporate bonds outstanding. By comparison, the ratio of outstanding Baa 3-rated bondsto high
$VIX CRUSH – NORTHMANTRADER as you know, I disagreed with you as to timing on a rally in Nov/early Dec and thought the rally would only come after tax selling pressure was off//i ended up unsubscribing from your paid service, but I so thoroughly agree with you now that I bought puts in BA friday when it was up a couple and now am already in good shapeI will likely buy Vixy tomorrow as I agree with you there as well MEDIA – NORTHMANTRADER Media. Sven Henrich is a highly respected technical analyst of markets & the macro economic environment. Please see some of his public appearances and published works below. To subscribe to our market products please visit Services. Fox Business: Thanks @MelissaLeeCNBC & @CNBCFastMoney for having me on the show. TRANSPORTS – NORTHMANTRADER As you may recall transports didn’t buy the finally rally in early 2020 either. It’s a warning signal we’ve seen repeated throughout the years: 2007 and 2015 come to mind as transports suddenly refused to make new highs while the broader market still made new highs beforegetting clocked.
MARKET VIDEOS
Market Videos. Technical market videos have shown to be immensely popular with traders and investors alike as the voiceover perspective adds not only a personalized experience, but also a more in-depth and clearer way to communicate technical chart details more effectively. Video format are in HD quality and are generally around 30 min in CONTACT – NORTHMANTRADER Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window) Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)MARKET ANALYSIS
All Things Being Equal. By Sven Henrich on April 12, 2021 • ( 35 Comments ) The ghost of 2013 indeed is hanging over this market. Nothing matters and the trend remains fully intact and new record market highs are made every month. November, December, January,February, March,
FROTH – NORTHMANTRADER So Powell finally used the F word: Froth.Being non specific though as one would expect and being super careful as to not overtly link monetary policies to the said froth we can note some faint sense of recognition on the side of central bankers that the liquidity avalanche they have unleashed has resulted in market distortions. FRAGILE: HANDLE WITH CARE Fragile: Handle with Care. What a circus. I imagine there’s a big sign in every Fed building in America: Don’t drop, fragile, handle with care. Janet Yellen, while no longer in a Fed building, committed the cardinal sin of pointing out the obvious yesterday: Rates may haveto
TECHNICAL SETUPS
Time for a technical update. Last week was a tricky period in markets, the initial rally off of the March lows saw a sizable retrace asresistance was hit.
SVEN HENRICH
Sven Henrich. Sven Henrich is founder and the lead market strategist for NorthmanTrader and a highly respected technical analyst and commentator about markets & the macro economic environment and is a frequent contributor to CNBC, CNN Business and to MarketWatch. NEVER GO FULL RETARD A market in full retard mode, utterly removed from any economic foundation, artificially propelled by knucklehead central bankers who are refusing to take responsibility for the reckless investor animal spirits they have unleashed resulting in the largest asset bubble of our time. Never go full retard.NORTHMANTRADER
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