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* Register to Participate! The purpose of Long Bets is to improve long–term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The Long Now Foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes. MORE »*
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-------------------------Featured Bet
Duration 4 years 02017-02020 “A BIOTERROR OR BIOERROR WILL LEAD TO ONE MILLION CASUALTIES IN A SINGLE EVENT WITHIN A SIX MONTH PERIOD STARTING NO LATER THAN DEC 3102020.”
PREDICTOR
Martin Rees
CHALLENGER
Steven Pinker
STAKES $400
will go to _Givewell_ if Rees wins, or _Givewell_ if Pinker wins. review and discuss this bet »more bets »
Featured Prediction
Duration 9 years 02020-02030 “BY 2030, HALF OF THE UK ADULT POPULATION WILL BE VEGAN.”PREDICTOR
Dale Vince
CHALLENGER
Challenge Vince to a bet! review and discuss this prediction »more predictions »
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