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JOHN QUIGGIN
Unsurprisingly, the forced grounding of an airliner flying over Belarus, and the arrest of a critical journalist on board has provoked a burst of whataboutery from Russia and a reciprocal round of ‘false equivalence’ from the West.. The parallel case is that of the forced landing of the Bolivian presidential plane, with President Evo Morales on board, on the basis of the false suspicionWORLD EVENTS
John Quiggin 8 Comments. Reading about the recent military coup in Myanmar, I’ve seen the view that Biden’s criticism of the coup is undermined by the fact that the pretext for the coup, a supposedly stolen election, was exactly the same as that raised by Trump and the Republican Party in response to Biden’s 2020 election victory. CCS VS HAZELWOOD (UPDATED) CCS vs Hazelwood (updated) September 7, 2015 John Quiggin 33 Comments. It’s often hard to get an idea of the scale at which different technologies are operating. For example, there’s a lot of discussion about Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS or ‘clean coal’), though less than there used to be. To get an idea of current and nearCOGNITIVE BIASES
Ross Gittins cites some interesting questions used by some of my QUT colleagues to assess cognitive biases before undertaking a study of investment behavior. Here you go: Try to answer before reading on or checking comments: Give me high and low estimates for the average weight of an adult male sperm whale (the largest ofRAWLS AND BENTHAM
Rawls and Bentham. May 19, 2003 John Quiggin 4 Comments. Rereading what I said earlier about Rawls and utilitarianism, I think it needs a correction. Rawls really is proposing something different in its approach from classical utilitarianism. In particular, his approach focuses attention on the idea that we might want to pay attention tothings
CARNABETIAN
The crucial line turns out to be. Everywhere the carnabetian army marches on, Each one an dedicated follower of fashion. It’s obvious when it’s written out that carnabetian is a reference to Carnaby Street, the fashion centre of Swinging London in the 1960s, but I don’t think I would ever have worked it out by ear. Post navigation. TWO BILLION EXAMPLES OF INNUMERACY Two billion examples of innumeracy. In the leadup to the recent British Royal wedding, it was repeatedly suggested that the event would be watched by 2 billion people worldwide, that is, about 30 per cent of the world’s population. It says something for the quality of the news media that none of those reporting this estimate offered asource
ISLAMISM AND TERRORISM Islamism and terrorism. September 7, 2004 John Quiggin 19 Comments. As Ken Parish observes, in my recent post about Chechnya, I discussed the issue of terrorism and its causes in generic terms and didn’t have anything specific to say about Islamism. So, I’ll start by observing that most of what has been written on this topic is, in my THERE’S A LOT OF RUIN IN A COUNTRY There’s a lot of ruin in a country. So said Adam Smith a couple of centuries ago, and he will, I hope, be proved right, in the US, and elsewhere in the world. Trump and the Republican majority in Congress and (imminently) in the Supreme Court will, in all probability, repeal Obamacare, restore and expand the Bush tax cuts for the rich, stop FAREWELL TO EARTH SANCTUARIES The remaining shareholders of Earth Sanctuaries Limited, among whom I'm one, have been advised that the company is to be wound up. ESL, which was floated with high hopes (a little too late to catch the dotcom boom, unfortunately) was Australia's most substantial attempt at private-sector biodiversity conservation.JOHN QUIGGIN
Unsurprisingly, the forced grounding of an airliner flying over Belarus, and the arrest of a critical journalist on board has provoked a burst of whataboutery from Russia and a reciprocal round of ‘false equivalence’ from the West.. The parallel case is that of the forced landing of the Bolivian presidential plane, with President Evo Morales on board, on the basis of the false suspicionWORLD EVENTS
John Quiggin 8 Comments. Reading about the recent military coup in Myanmar, I’ve seen the view that Biden’s criticism of the coup is undermined by the fact that the pretext for the coup, a supposedly stolen election, was exactly the same as that raised by Trump and the Republican Party in response to Biden’s 2020 election victory. CCS VS HAZELWOOD (UPDATED) CCS vs Hazelwood (updated) September 7, 2015 John Quiggin 33 Comments. It’s often hard to get an idea of the scale at which different technologies are operating. For example, there’s a lot of discussion about Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS or ‘clean coal’), though less than there used to be. To get an idea of current and nearCOGNITIVE BIASES
Ross Gittins cites some interesting questions used by some of my QUT colleagues to assess cognitive biases before undertaking a study of investment behavior. Here you go: Try to answer before reading on or checking comments: Give me high and low estimates for the average weight of an adult male sperm whale (the largest ofRAWLS AND BENTHAM
Rawls and Bentham. May 19, 2003 John Quiggin 4 Comments. Rereading what I said earlier about Rawls and utilitarianism, I think it needs a correction. Rawls really is proposing something different in its approach from classical utilitarianism. In particular, his approach focuses attention on the idea that we might want to pay attention tothings
CARNABETIAN
The crucial line turns out to be. Everywhere the carnabetian army marches on, Each one an dedicated follower of fashion. It’s obvious when it’s written out that carnabetian is a reference to Carnaby Street, the fashion centre of Swinging London in the 1960s, but I don’t think I would ever have worked it out by ear. Post navigation. TWO BILLION EXAMPLES OF INNUMERACY Two billion examples of innumeracy. In the leadup to the recent British Royal wedding, it was repeatedly suggested that the event would be watched by 2 billion people worldwide, that is, about 30 per cent of the world’s population. It says something for the quality of the news media that none of those reporting this estimate offered asource
ISLAMISM AND TERRORISM Islamism and terrorism. September 7, 2004 John Quiggin 19 Comments. As Ken Parish observes, in my recent post about Chechnya, I discussed the issue of terrorism and its causes in generic terms and didn’t have anything specific to say about Islamism. So, I’ll start by observing that most of what has been written on this topic is, in my THERE’S A LOT OF RUIN IN A COUNTRY There’s a lot of ruin in a country. So said Adam Smith a couple of centuries ago, and he will, I hope, be proved right, in the US, and elsewhere in the world. Trump and the Republican majority in Congress and (imminently) in the Supreme Court will, in all probability, repeal Obamacare, restore and expand the Bush tax cuts for the rich, stop FAREWELL TO EARTH SANCTUARIES The remaining shareholders of Earth Sanctuaries Limited, among whom I'm one, have been advised that the company is to be wound up. ESL, which was floated with high hopes (a little too late to catch the dotcom boom, unfortunately) was Australia's most substantial attempt at private-sector biodiversity conservation. NUCLEAR POWER IS A STALKING HORSE FOR GAS Thank you JQ. Please consider asking for all prior appointees to be published. Only fair to show real Origin. I emailed to no avail. Note: you and others disappeared from; PHILOSOPHY – JOHN QUIGGIN A few years ago, I wrote a series of articles in Jacobin showing how Locke’s theory of property, on which most modern propertarianism is based, was entirely consistent with his personal involvement in American slavery and the expropriation of indigenous Americans. Historian Holly Brewer has come to Locke’s defence, pointing to more evidence about Locke’s involvement in AmericanENVIRONMENT
September 1, 2020 John Quiggin 20 Comments. It’s now clear that we have the technology we need to run a completely decarbonized electricity generation system. South Australia is the world leader generating more than 50 per cent of its energy from renewable sources, and aiming for 100 per cent renewables by 2030. ECONOMICS – GENERAL – JOHN QUIGGIN As a starting point, I assume that we want to consider energy separately from market goods in general. Producing new energy requires inputs of both energy and market goods (including labour and capital). Think about this example. Technology A uses 1 Mwh of energy input and $180 of market inputs to produce 10 MWh of energy output.ENVIRONMENT
Posts about Environment written by John Quiggin. There’s not a lot new to be said about the leak of documents from the Heartland Institute, revealing that the Institute was channeling funds from far-right billionaires and corporations to a large number of self-described sceptics, notably including our own Bob Carter, who’s apparently on a monthly retainer, despite his prior claims of BONEHEADED STUPIDITY At Five Thirty Eight, Maggie Koerth-Baker has yet another article bemoaning the way partisanship biases our views.Apparently, one side, based on eyeballing, thinks the earth is flat, while the other, relying on the views of so-called scientists, or the experience of international air travel, regards it as spherical, or nearly so. THE TRAGEDY OF GALLIPOLI 100 years ago today, Australian and New Zealand forces landed at what is now Anzac Cove in the Gallipoli Peninsula, suffering heavy losses as they attempted to storm entrenched Turkish positions. Eight months later, having failed to dislodge the Turks, despite the loss of more than 10 000 killed and 20 000 wounded the AnzacsAUGUST 2003
August 31, 2003 John Quiggin. A Universal History of Infamy by Jorge Luis Borges. Among other interesting features is the fact that Borges has drawn on sources including Gangs of New York (which was only recently published at the time Borges wrote) and Life on the Mississippi. I haven’t read either and also missed the film of Gangsof New
JUNE 2003 – JOHN QUIGGIN June 29, 2003 John Quiggin. Brian Weatherson links to a paper he’s written with the title ‘ imaginative resistance”. It’s about the fact that, whereas it’s easy to imagine fictional events, people and so on, or to imagine real people and things having properties different from those they actually have, it’s very hard to imagine MAY 2003 – JOHN QUIGGIN Economists v philosophers Round V. May 29, 2003 John Quiggin 16 Comments. Matt Yglesias accepts my invitation to demonstrate the naivety of economic thinking about consequentialism. He proposes the following example. John is at the casino and he puts $100 on the number 12 spot at the roulette table. While the wheel is spinning,John dies suddenly.
JOHN QUIGGIN
Unsurprisingly, the forced grounding of an airliner flying over Belarus, and the arrest of a critical journalist on board has provoked a burst of whataboutery from Russia and a reciprocal round of ‘false equivalence’ from the West.. The parallel case is that of the forced landing of the Bolivian presidential plane, with President Evo Morales on board, on the basis of the false suspicion EMAIL NEWSLETTER FOR MAY 2021 You can read my latest email newsletter, covering May 2021, here. I'm looking into Substack as a way of distributing the newsletter, and providing links to the blog, but am still finding my way. Any thoughts would be appreciated CCS VS HAZELWOOD (UPDATED) CCS vs Hazelwood (updated) September 7, 2015 John Quiggin 33 Comments. It’s often hard to get an idea of the scale at which different technologies are operating. For example, there’s a lot of discussion about Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS or ‘clean coal’), though less than there used to be. To get an idea of current and nearCOGNITIVE BIASES
Ross Gittins cites some interesting questions used by some of my QUT colleagues to assess cognitive biases before undertaking a study of investment behavior. Here you go: Try to answer before reading on or checking comments: Give me high and low estimates for the average weight of an adult male sperm whale (the largest ofCARNABETIAN
The crucial line turns out to be. Everywhere the carnabetian army marches on, Each one an dedicated follower of fashion. It’s obvious when it’s written out that carnabetian is a reference to Carnaby Street, the fashion centre of Swinging London in the 1960s, but I don’t think I would ever have worked it out by ear. Post navigation.RAWLS AND BENTHAM
Rawls and Bentham. May 19, 2003 John Quiggin 4 Comments. Rereading what I said earlier about Rawls and utilitarianism, I think it needs a correction. Rawls really is proposing something different in its approach from classical utilitarianism. In particular, his approach focuses attention on the idea that we might want to pay attention tothings
TWO BILLION EXAMPLES OF INNUMERACY Two billion examples of innumeracy. In the leadup to the recent British Royal wedding, it was repeatedly suggested that the event would be watched by 2 billion people worldwide, that is, about 30 per cent of the world’s population. It says something for the quality of the news media that none of those reporting this estimate offered asource
ISLAMISM AND TERRORISM Islamism and terrorism. September 7, 2004 John Quiggin 19 Comments. As Ken Parish observes, in my recent post about Chechnya, I discussed the issue of terrorism and its causes in generic terms and didn’t have anything specific to say about Islamism. So, I’ll start by observing that most of what has been written on this topic is, in my THERE’S A LOT OF RUIN IN A COUNTRY There’s a lot of ruin in a country. So said Adam Smith a couple of centuries ago, and he will, I hope, be proved right, in the US, and elsewhere in the world. Trump and the Republican majority in Congress and (imminently) in the Supreme Court will, in all probability, repeal Obamacare, restore and expand the Bush tax cuts for the rich, stop FAREWELL TO EARTH SANCTUARIES The remaining shareholders of Earth Sanctuaries Limited, among whom I'm one, have been advised that the company is to be wound up. ESL, which was floated with high hopes (a little too late to catch the dotcom boom, unfortunately) was Australia's most substantial attempt at private-sector biodiversity conservation.JOHN QUIGGIN
Unsurprisingly, the forced grounding of an airliner flying over Belarus, and the arrest of a critical journalist on board has provoked a burst of whataboutery from Russia and a reciprocal round of ‘false equivalence’ from the West.. The parallel case is that of the forced landing of the Bolivian presidential plane, with President Evo Morales on board, on the basis of the false suspicion EMAIL NEWSLETTER FOR MAY 2021 You can read my latest email newsletter, covering May 2021, here. I'm looking into Substack as a way of distributing the newsletter, and providing links to the blog, but am still finding my way. Any thoughts would be appreciated CCS VS HAZELWOOD (UPDATED) CCS vs Hazelwood (updated) September 7, 2015 John Quiggin 33 Comments. It’s often hard to get an idea of the scale at which different technologies are operating. For example, there’s a lot of discussion about Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS or ‘clean coal’), though less than there used to be. To get an idea of current and nearCOGNITIVE BIASES
Ross Gittins cites some interesting questions used by some of my QUT colleagues to assess cognitive biases before undertaking a study of investment behavior. Here you go: Try to answer before reading on or checking comments: Give me high and low estimates for the average weight of an adult male sperm whale (the largest ofCARNABETIAN
The crucial line turns out to be. Everywhere the carnabetian army marches on, Each one an dedicated follower of fashion. It’s obvious when it’s written out that carnabetian is a reference to Carnaby Street, the fashion centre of Swinging London in the 1960s, but I don’t think I would ever have worked it out by ear. Post navigation.RAWLS AND BENTHAM
Rawls and Bentham. May 19, 2003 John Quiggin 4 Comments. Rereading what I said earlier about Rawls and utilitarianism, I think it needs a correction. Rawls really is proposing something different in its approach from classical utilitarianism. In particular, his approach focuses attention on the idea that we might want to pay attention tothings
TWO BILLION EXAMPLES OF INNUMERACY Two billion examples of innumeracy. In the leadup to the recent British Royal wedding, it was repeatedly suggested that the event would be watched by 2 billion people worldwide, that is, about 30 per cent of the world’s population. It says something for the quality of the news media that none of those reporting this estimate offered asource
ISLAMISM AND TERRORISM Islamism and terrorism. September 7, 2004 John Quiggin 19 Comments. As Ken Parish observes, in my recent post about Chechnya, I discussed the issue of terrorism and its causes in generic terms and didn’t have anything specific to say about Islamism. So, I’ll start by observing that most of what has been written on this topic is, in my THERE’S A LOT OF RUIN IN A COUNTRY There’s a lot of ruin in a country. So said Adam Smith a couple of centuries ago, and he will, I hope, be proved right, in the US, and elsewhere in the world. Trump and the Republican majority in Congress and (imminently) in the Supreme Court will, in all probability, repeal Obamacare, restore and expand the Bush tax cuts for the rich, stop FAREWELL TO EARTH SANCTUARIES The remaining shareholders of Earth Sanctuaries Limited, among whom I'm one, have been advised that the company is to be wound up. ESL, which was floated with high hopes (a little too late to catch the dotcom boom, unfortunately) was Australia's most substantial attempt at private-sector biodiversity conservation. EMAIL NEWSLETTER FOR MAY 2021 You can read my latest email newsletter, covering May 2021, here. I'm looking into Substack as a way of distributing the newsletter, and providing links to the blog, but am still finding my way. Any thoughts would be appreciated NUCLEAR POWER IS A STALKING HORSE FOR GAS Thank you JQ. Please consider asking for all prior appointees to be published. Only fair to show real Origin. I emailed to no avail. Note: you and others disappeared from; PHILOSOPHY – JOHN QUIGGIN A few years ago, I wrote a series of articles in Jacobin showing how Locke’s theory of property, on which most modern propertarianism is based, was entirely consistent with his personal involvement in American slavery and the expropriation of indigenous Americans. Historian Holly Brewer has come to Locke’s defence, pointing to more evidence about Locke’s involvement in AmericanENVIRONMENT
September 1, 2020 John Quiggin 20 Comments. It’s now clear that we have the technology we need to run a completely decarbonized electricity generation system. South Australia is the world leader generating more than 50 per cent of its energy from renewable sources, and aiming for 100 per cent renewables by 2030. BONEHEADED STUPIDITY For decades, they advanced a conspiracy theory in which all the governments in the world, backed up by every major scientific institution, were advancing a fraudulent theory of global warming. Here’s a pretty typical example from Pat Michaels, then the lead climate authority at Cato, being interviewed on Fox.ENVIRONMENT
Despite Fukushima and the failure of the US “nuclear renaissance”, nuclear power still has plenty of fans in Australia. A question which opponents routinely ask is “where are the nuclear power plants goingto go?”.
THE TRAGEDY OF GALLIPOLI 100 years ago today, Australian and New Zealand forces landed at what is now Anzac Cove in the Gallipoli Peninsula, suffering heavy losses as they attempted to storm entrenched Turkish positions. Eight months later, having failed to dislodge the Turks, despite the loss of more than 10 000 killed and 20 000 wounded the Anzacs MAY 2003 – JOHN QUIGGIN Economists v philosophers Round V. May 29, 2003 John Quiggin 16 Comments. Matt Yglesias accepts my invitation to demonstrate the naivety of economic thinking about consequentialism. He proposes the following example. John is at the casino and he puts $100 on the number 12 spot at the roulette table. While the wheel is spinning,John dies suddenly.
AUGUST 2003
August 31, 2003 John Quiggin. A Universal History of Infamy by Jorge Luis Borges. Among other interesting features is the fact that Borges has drawn on sources including Gangs of New York (which was only recently published at the time Borges wrote) and Life on the Mississippi. I haven’t read either and also missed the film of Gangsof New
JUNE 2003 – JOHN QUIGGIN June 29, 2003 John Quiggin. Brian Weatherson links to a paper he’s written with the title ‘ imaginative resistance”. It’s about the fact that, whereas it’s easy to imagine fictional events, people and so on, or to imagine real people and things having properties different from those they actually have, it’s very hard to imagineJOHN QUIGGIN
Unsurprisingly, the forced grounding of an airliner flying over Belarus, and the arrest of a critical journalist on board has provoked a burst of whataboutery from Russia and a reciprocal round of ‘false equivalence’ from the West.. The parallel case is that of the forced landing of the Bolivian presidential plane, with President Evo Morales on board, on the basis of the false suspicionJOHN QUIGGIN
Sandpit. May 3, 2021 John Quiggin 21 Comments. A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on. To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand.WORLD EVENTS
February 2, 2021. February 2, 2021. John Quiggin 8 Comments. Reading about the recent military coup in Myanmar, I’ve seen the view that Biden’s criticism of the coup is undermined by the fact that the pretext for the coup, a supposedly stolen election, was exactly the same as that raised by Trump and the Republican Party in response toPOLITICS (GENERAL)
A commenter at Crooked Timber just made the often-repeated claim ““Forty years ago (1970’s) global cooling was all the rage!””. As it happens, just before reading this comment, I received a link to some files from the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum.It’s a daily log or similar, and starts with a response to someone named Frank Press who had written to Carterraising
BONEHEADED STUPIDITY For decades, they advanced a conspiracy theory in which all the governments in the world, backed up by every major scientific institution, were advancing a fraudulent theory of global warming. Here’s a pretty typical example from Pat Michaels, then the lead climate authority at Cato, being interviewed on Fox. CCS VS HAZELWOOD (UPDATED) CCS vs Hazelwood (updated) September 7, 2015 John Quiggin 33 Comments. It’s often hard to get an idea of the scale at which different technologies are operating. For example, there’s a lot of discussion about Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS or ‘clean coal’), though less than there used to be. To get an idea of current and nearDISCUSSION POLICY
Discussion policy – please read before commenting. 1. This is a forum for discussion. I publish it at my own expense and in my own time. It is not a public place. There is no automatic right to comment here. 2. The purpose of the comments section is to allow constructiveCOGNITIVE BIASES
Ross Gittins cites some interesting questions used by some of my QUT colleagues to assess cognitive biases before undertaking a study of investment behavior. Here you go: Try to answer before reading on or checking comments: Give me high and low estimates for the average weight of an adult male sperm whale (the largest of IS THERE A SOLUTION TO THE REFUGEE PROBLEM? Is there a solution to the refugee problem? The announcement by Kevin Rudd and PNG PM O’Neill that asylum seekers arriving by boat would, from now on, be settled in PNG came as a shock to most of us. I’ve waited a while to respond, because I’m neither happy with the policy nor satisfied with the critical responses from the Left. ISLAMISM AND TERRORISM Islamism and terrorism. September 7, 2004 John Quiggin 19 Comments. As Ken Parish observes, in my recent post about Chechnya, I discussed the issue of terrorism and its causes in generic terms and didn’t have anything specific to say about Islamism. So, I’ll start by observing that most of what has been written on this topic is, in myJOHN QUIGGIN
Unsurprisingly, the forced grounding of an airliner flying over Belarus, and the arrest of a critical journalist on board has provoked a burst of whataboutery from Russia and a reciprocal round of ‘false equivalence’ from the West.. The parallel case is that of the forced landing of the Bolivian presidential plane, with President Evo Morales on board, on the basis of the false suspicionJOHN QUIGGIN
Sandpit. May 3, 2021 John Quiggin 21 Comments. A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on. To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand.WORLD EVENTS
February 2, 2021. February 2, 2021. John Quiggin 8 Comments. Reading about the recent military coup in Myanmar, I’ve seen the view that Biden’s criticism of the coup is undermined by the fact that the pretext for the coup, a supposedly stolen election, was exactly the same as that raised by Trump and the Republican Party in response toPOLITICS (GENERAL)
A commenter at Crooked Timber just made the often-repeated claim ““Forty years ago (1970’s) global cooling was all the rage!””. As it happens, just before reading this comment, I received a link to some files from the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum.It’s a daily log or similar, and starts with a response to someone named Frank Press who had written to Carterraising
BONEHEADED STUPIDITY For decades, they advanced a conspiracy theory in which all the governments in the world, backed up by every major scientific institution, were advancing a fraudulent theory of global warming. Here’s a pretty typical example from Pat Michaels, then the lead climate authority at Cato, being interviewed on Fox. CCS VS HAZELWOOD (UPDATED) CCS vs Hazelwood (updated) September 7, 2015 John Quiggin 33 Comments. It’s often hard to get an idea of the scale at which different technologies are operating. For example, there’s a lot of discussion about Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS or ‘clean coal’), though less than there used to be. To get an idea of current and nearDISCUSSION POLICY
Discussion policy – please read before commenting. 1. This is a forum for discussion. I publish it at my own expense and in my own time. It is not a public place. There is no automatic right to comment here. 2. The purpose of the comments section is to allow constructiveCOGNITIVE BIASES
Ross Gittins cites some interesting questions used by some of my QUT colleagues to assess cognitive biases before undertaking a study of investment behavior. Here you go: Try to answer before reading on or checking comments: Give me high and low estimates for the average weight of an adult male sperm whale (the largest of IS THERE A SOLUTION TO THE REFUGEE PROBLEM? Is there a solution to the refugee problem? The announcement by Kevin Rudd and PNG PM O’Neill that asylum seekers arriving by boat would, from now on, be settled in PNG came as a shock to most of us. I’ve waited a while to respond, because I’m neither happy with the policy nor satisfied with the critical responses from the Left. ISLAMISM AND TERRORISM Islamism and terrorism. September 7, 2004 John Quiggin 19 Comments. As Ken Parish observes, in my recent post about Chechnya, I discussed the issue of terrorism and its causes in generic terms and didn’t have anything specific to say about Islamism. So, I’ll start by observing that most of what has been written on this topic is, in myLIFE IN GENERAL
The basic physics is simple. (1) weight loss = (kilojoules burnt – kilojoules consumed)*k, (2) kilojoules burnt = base metabolism + work done. where k ≃ 0.025 is a constant reflecting the rate at which your body converts kilojoules of food energy into kilograms of fat. ECONOMICS – GENERAL – JOHN QUIGGIN As a starting point, I assume that we want to consider energy separately from market goods in general. Producing new energy requires inputs of both energy and market goods (including labour and capital). Think about this example. Technology A uses 1 Mwh of energy input and $180 of market inputs to produce 10 MWh of energy output.A PODIUM FINISH
1 day ago · An extraordinary run. 2nd John Quiggin Time 04:19:46 Net Time 04:18:20. For comparison, I ran about 20 miles in 3 hrs. as a 16 year old, in a training run “to see if I could do it (20 miles) “. SANDPIT – JOHN QUIGGIN 1 day ago · A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on. To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand. It’s not meant as a forum for visiting conspiracy theorists, or trolls posing as such. BONEHEADED STUPIDITY At Five Thirty Eight, Maggie Koerth-Baker has yet another article bemoaning the way partisanship biases our views.Apparently, one side, based on eyeballing, thinks the earth is flat, while the other, relying on the views of so-called scientists, or the experience of international air travel, regards it as spherical, or nearly so.A PODIUM FINISH
1 day ago · 2nd out of 7 in my age group in the Brisbane Marathon. While I often get 1/1, genuine podiums are a rarity for me. Thanks to Nancy for Bike support on lots of training runs I’m raising money MONDAY MESSAGE BOARD 1 day ago · Back again with another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link LABOR AND ITS IMAGINARY FRIENDS: WHY THE PARTY’S That's the headline for my latest piece in Crikey reproduced over the fold. Labor’s poor performance in the by-election seat of Upper Hunter, held by the National Party since 1931 has provoked a new round of soul-searching about the party’s failure to maintain the support of its traditional ‘base’. Implicitly or explicitly, the‘base’ is
THERE’S A LOT OF RUIN IN A COUNTRY There’s a lot of ruin in a country. So said Adam Smith a couple of centuries ago, and he will, I hope, be proved right, in the US, and elsewhere in the world. Trump and the Republican majority in Congress and (imminently) in the Supreme Court will, in all probability, repeal Obamacare, restore and expand the Bush tax cuts for the rich, stop MAY 2003 – JOHN QUIGGIN Economists v philosophers Round V. May 29, 2003 John Quiggin 16 Comments. Matt Yglesias accepts my invitation to demonstrate the naivety of economic thinking about consequentialism. He proposes the following example. John is at the casino and he puts $100 on the number 12 spot at the roulette table. While the wheel is spinning,John dies suddenly.
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JOHN QUIGGIN
COMMENTARY ON AUSTRALIAN AND WORLD EVENTS FROM A SOCIALIST AND DEMOCRATIC VIEWPOINT THE END OF THE POPULATION PYRAMID (SCHEME)__June 1, 2021
__John Quiggin __18 Comments In a case of l’esprit de l’escalier, I just worked out the perfect parenthetical addition to this piece that was published in Inside Story, responding to a string of pro-natalist pieces in the New YorkTimes and elsewhere
. The
central point is that the economic model in which strong young workers support elderly retirees is outdated and will only become more so. A sharp fall in births during 2020 has provoked a wave of handwringingabout the implications of an ageing population. The decline can’t be attributed solely to the pandemic, since most of the babies born in 2020 were conceived before the pandemic began. However, it appears to have accelerated as the impact of the pandemichas been felt.
Some of the complaints reflect old-fashioned, not to say primitive, concerns about birth rates as an indicator of national ‘vitality’. But the main focus of concerns reflects a 20th century understanding of the economy that is deeply embedded in our ways of thinking and economic measurement, even though it is now almost completelyobsolete.
The central assumption underlying these concerns is based on economic model in which “societies are organized around the notion that a surplus of young people will drive economies and help pay for the old”.
The model in which the young supported the old emerged in the 20th century, and ended with the 21st. For most of human history, old people were expected to work as long as they could, just as children were put to work as soon as they were able. The very young and the very old depended on their families to support them. The welfare state which emerged at the end of the 19th century changed this radically. On the one hand, children were excluded from the workforce and required to attend school until the official leaving age, typically around 14. Governments paid for the schools, but, for the most part, required parents to support their children as in thepast.
On the other hand, the introduction of old age pensions meant that old people (most commonly those over 65) were now entitled to public support, sometimes though not always, subject to a means test. Pensions were paid out of taxes or contributions to social security schemes. Either way, the cost was borne by the population of ‘working age’, defined as 15-64. With a high birth rate, the age distribution of the population appeared as a pyramid, with a large working age population supporting a small group of retirees. The model underlying the desire for a population pyramid is one in which physical work predominates. Young and strong, needing only on-the-job training, workers leave school at 14 and immediately start contributing to the economy. By 65, they are worn out and ready for retirement. In this model, the more young people, the better. To see that this assumption is problematic, we need only to look at US data on employment by age.
At the turn of the century, the assumption described above looked reasonable enough. Around 60 per cent of young people aged 16-24 were employed compared to barely 30 per cent those aged 55 and over. But by 2019, before the pandemic, the gap had mostly closed. Just over 50 per cent of people 16-24 were employed, compared to 39 per cent of those over 55. Many of the jobs held by young people are part-time and low-waged. By contrast, older workers are, on average, just below their peak lifetime earnings, reached around age 50. Taking these facts into account, it seems likely that mean earnings per person are already higher for the old than for the young. The reality of a modern economy is quite different from that underlying the population pyramic. To become a productive member of the community, young people need post-school education, whether academic or vocational. That implies a large expenditure of resources, which may be paid for by government, parents or through loan schemes like HECS. Taking all these together, the proportion of national income allocated to education is stable or increasing in developed countries like Australia and the US, even as the proportion of young people in the population declines. https://www.acer.org/au/discover/article/three-charts-on-how-much-australia-spends-on-all-levels-of-education https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/us-education-expenditure-as-share-of-gdp-public-and-private-institutions?country=~USA A return to high birth rates over the next few years would imply the need for a large increase in education spending. The payoff in terms of a more productive workforce would not be fully realised until the second half of this century, when the expanded age cohort entered the prime-age workforce in their late twenties and early thirties. At the other end of the age distribution, official retirement ages have been abolished, and the eligibility age for the pension has been pushed to 67, with further increases in prospect. There is still a substantial group of manual workers for whom physical exhaustion makes retirement a relief. Attitudes that under-value older workers are still prevalent, with the result that many are pushed into retirement whether they like it or not. But for a large group of white collar workers, working past 65 is an increasingly attractive economicoption.
A realistic model of the future workforce is one in which productive workers are mostly aged between 25 and 70. It’s unlikely that life expectancy will ever be much above 95. On that basis the typical person will spend about half their life in the working age population and the other 50 years evenly divided between education andretirement.
In all of this, I’ve focused on the age distribution of the population. Despite the concerns that have been expressed, the age distribution associated with a lower birthrate is unlikely to causemajor problem.
By contrast, the implications of a lower birth rate for the the size of the world’s population are unambiguously beneficial. The world is already overcrowded, and the needs of a growing population are straining the capacity of the planet to support us. Even with falling birth rates, the worlds population is certain to rise between now and2050.
By 2100, population might return to the current level of eight billion or perhaps a little fewer. The idea that we should push people to have more children in order this number, rather than making marginal adjustments to the economic institutions we have inherited from the 20th century, is simply nonsensical. MONDAY MESSAGE BOARD__May 31, 2021
__John
Quiggin __20 Comments Back again with another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and _idees fixes_ to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link http://eepurl.com/dAv6sX You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin, at my Facebook public pageand at my
Economics in Two Lessons page THE TIME TO DIVEST FROM BITCOIN IS NOW__May 29, 2021
__John Quiggin __10 Comments That’s the self-explanatory title of my latest piece in Inside Story THE TRIBUTE VICE PAYS TO VIRTUE. __May 29, 2021May 29, 2021 __John Quiggin __1 Comment Unsurprisingly, the forced grounding of an airliner flying over Belarus, and the arrest of a critical journalist on board has provoked a burst of whataboutery from Russia and a reciprocal round of ‘false equivalence’
from the West.
The parallel case is that of the forced landing of the Bolivian presidential plane, with President Evo Morales on board, on the basis of the false suspicion that it was also carrying Edward Snowden. The grounding, at the behest of the Obama Administration, was carried out by European governments (France, Spain, Portugal and Italy) which refused to allow the plane transit through their air space. Faced with the risk of running out of fuel, the plane landed in Austria, and was eventually allowed to proceed. This conduct was of a piece with Obama’s general willingness to take extreme measures againstwhistleeblowers.
Read More »
SANDPIT
__May 24, 2021
__John Quiggin __2 Comments A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, _ideesfixes_ and so on.
To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand. It’s not meant as a forum for visiting conspiracy theorists, or trolls posing as such. MONDAY MESSAGE BOARD__May 24, 2021
__John
Quiggin __30 Comments Back again with another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and _idees fixes_ to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link http://eepurl.com/dAv6sX You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin, at my Facebook public pageand at my
Economics in Two Lessons page THE BUDGET’S THYLACINE-CHASING DAYS ARE OVER__May 21, 2021
__John Quiggin __15 Comments The thylacine in the headline is the long sought and now extinct,budget surplus
.
My latest in Inside Story. MONDAY MESSAGE BOARD__May 17, 2021
__John
Quiggin __12 Comments Back again with another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and _idees fixes_ to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link http://eepurl.com/dAv6sX You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin, at my Facebook public pageand at my
Economics in Two Lessons page MY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN FOR US POLICY ON THE MIDDLE EAST …__May 13, 2021
__John Quiggin __22 Comments … is set out over the fold. I’m confident readers who take a little time to think about it will realise it’s far superior to existing policy, and to any alternative proposed so far. (Previously posted at Crooked Timber in 2011)
THE BUDGET SHOULD HAVE BEEN A ROAD TO AUSTRALIA’S LOW-EMISSIONS FUTURE__May 13, 2021
__John Quiggin __14 Comments . Instead, it’s a flight of fancy. That’s the tile of my latest piece in The Conversation.
Read there, comment here.POSTS NAVIGATION
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