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NEWS APRIL 2021
Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euro area’s economy. A slightly weakening in industrial activity offset the further improvement in the expectations of households and firms. As of January 2021, a new version of the indicator has been released,which
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Enter the password that accompanies your username. Home -COIN INCREASES AGAIN IN MARCH €coin increases again in March For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 2 April 2021 In March €-coin rose to 1.36 (from 0.96 in February). Manufacturing firms’ confidence has continued to recover and there is lessHISTORICAL DATA
The real-time €-coin estimates. In these files are reported, period by period, the real time estimates of €-coin. These estimates have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability. Click xls to download the excel file containing data. For example, the following Figure -COIN POINTS TO A STABILIZATION IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN €coin points to a stabilization in economic activity in October For immediate release: 08.30 GMT; 09.30 CET; Friday, 30 October 2020 In October €-coin rose to -0.02 (from -0.31 in September), indicating that the underlying trend of the euro-area economy is one of virtualstagnation.
-COIN TURNS UPWARDS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER, BUT REMAINS €coin turns upwards slightly in September, but remains negative For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 30 September 2020 In September €-coin turned upwards (to -0.31, from -0.64 in August), after decreasing for six consecutive months, to reach the levelsrecorded last
NEW EUROCOIN: A TUTORIAL NOTE New Eurocoin: A Tutorial Note The following note provides a simple presentation of ideas and methods underlying the New Eurocoin indicator. For a detailed treatment see Altissimo, F., Cristadoro, R.,Forni,
THE €-COIN LAUNCH
A detailed account of the methodology and the construction of Eurocoin can be found in Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione n. 631 (or CEPR Discussion Paper no. 5633), while background theory is in a scholarly article by Mario Forni, Marc Hallin, Marco Lippi and Lucrezia Reichlin in the Journal of the American Statistical Association (2005) 100, pp.830-40.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS Work in progress - this page is still under construction, it will soon be completed. What is Eurocoin? The Banca d'Italia and CEPR start (from September 2007) the publication of a new economic activity indicator for the Euro area €-coin.This new indicator replaces the old Eurocoin index, which as been published on a monthly basis by CEPRsince 2002.
THE €-COIN INDICATOR’S GRADUAL RECOVERY CAME TO A HALT IN MAY The €-coin indicator’s gradual recovery came to a halt in May For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CET; Friday, 31 May 2013 • The €-coin indicator fell slightly in May, from -0.10% to -0.15%, thefirst
NEWS APRIL 2021
Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euro area’s economy. A slightly weakening in industrial activity offset the further improvement in the expectations of households and firms. As of January 2021, a new version of the indicator has been released,which
USER ACCOUNT
Enter the password that accompanies your username. Home -COIN INCREASES AGAIN IN MARCH €coin increases again in March For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 2 April 2021 In March €-coin rose to 1.36 (from 0.96 in February). Manufacturing firms’ confidence has continued to recover and there is lessHISTORICAL DATA
The real-time €-coin estimates. In these files are reported, period by period, the real time estimates of €-coin. These estimates have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability. Click xls to download the excel file containing data. For example, the following Figure -COIN POINTS TO A STABILIZATION IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN €coin points to a stabilization in economic activity in October For immediate release: 08.30 GMT; 09.30 CET; Friday, 30 October 2020 In October €-coin rose to -0.02 (from -0.31 in September), indicating that the underlying trend of the euro-area economy is one of virtualstagnation.
-COIN TURNS UPWARDS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER, BUT REMAINS €coin turns upwards slightly in September, but remains negative For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 30 September 2020 In September €-coin turned upwards (to -0.31, from -0.64 in August), after decreasing for six consecutive months, to reach the levelsrecorded last
NEW EUROCOIN: A TUTORIAL NOTE New Eurocoin: A Tutorial Note The following note provides a simple presentation of ideas and methods underlying the New Eurocoin indicator. For a detailed treatment see Altissimo, F., Cristadoro, R.,Forni,
THE €-COIN LAUNCH
A detailed account of the methodology and the construction of Eurocoin can be found in Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione n. 631 (or CEPR Discussion Paper no. 5633), while background theory is in a scholarly article by Mario Forni, Marc Hallin, Marco Lippi and Lucrezia Reichlin in the Journal of the American Statistical Association (2005) 100, pp.830-40.
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS Work in progress - this page is still under construction, it will soon be completed. What is Eurocoin? The Banca d'Italia and CEPR start (from September 2007) the publication of a new economic activity indicator for the Euro area €-coin.This new indicator replaces the old Eurocoin index, which as been published on a monthly basis by CEPRsince 2002.
THE €-COIN INDICATOR’S GRADUAL RECOVERY CAME TO A HALT IN MAY The €-coin indicator’s gradual recovery came to a halt in May For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CET; Friday, 31 May 2013 • The €-coin indicator fell slightly in May, from -0.10% to -0.15%, thefirst
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Enter the password that accompanies your username. Home EURO AREA AT A GLANCE Here is an overview of the recent behaviour of the series on which €-coin is based, together with the most recent update for each groupof indicators.
IN JULY €-COIN REMAINS NEGATIVE In July €-coin remains negative For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 31 July 2020 • In July €-coin remains negative (-0.50 from -0.37 in June). • The indicator continues to be affected by weak industrial production and -COIN WORSENS SLIGHTLY IN JUNE €coin worsens slightly in June For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 26 June 2020 In June €-coin fell to -0.37 (from -0.32 in May). The indicator continued to be affected by the contraction in industrial production notwithstanding the improvement in business and consumer THE DECLINE IN €-COIN COMES TO A HALT IN MAY The decline in €-coin comes to a halt in May . For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 31 May 2019 • In May -coin€ rose slightly to 0.20 (from 0.18 in April), following six consecutive decreases. THE €-COIN INDICATOR’S GRADUAL RECOVERY CAME TO A HALT IN MAY The €-coin indicator’s gradual recovery came to a halt in May For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CET; Friday, 31 May 2013 • The €-coin indicator fell slightly in May, from -0.10% to -0.15%, thefirst
-COIN CONTINUES TO RISE IN SEPTEMBER €coin continues to rise in September For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CET; Friday, 29 September 2017 In September €-coin rose to 0.71 from 0.67 in August, increasing for the fourth consecutive month. The indicator was buoyed by ongoing growth in industry and thepositive
-COIN INCREASES IN NOVEMBER €coin increases in November For immediate release: 08.30 GMT; 09.30 CET; Thursday, 30 November 2017 In November €-coin rose to 0.84 (from 0.72 in October), returning to a level similar to that recorded in April 2007. The indicator is buoyed by the marked improvement inbusiness
SLIGHT INCREASE IN €-COIN IN JULY Slight increase in €-coin in July For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CET; Friday, 29 July 2016 In July, the €-coin indicator increased slightly for the second consecutive EUROCOIN.CEPR.ORGWEB VIEW Ecoin_real_time €coin realtime Date Period by period are here reported the real time estimates of €-coin. These have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability.NEWS APRIL 2021
Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euro area’s economy. A slightly weakening in industrial activity offset the further improvement in the expectations of households and firms. As of January 2021, a new version of the indicator has been released,which
COIN ANALYSIS: 1 JUNE 2021 The revision has been made necessary by the major changes that have intervened in the statistics on which €-coin is constructed since its first publication in September 2007: industrial production, turnover and producer price indexes (amounting to roughly 30% of €-coin's database) were re-based and the new ATECO2007 classification has been implemented.USER ACCOUNT
Enter the password that accompanies your username. HomeHISTORICAL DATA
The real-time €-coin estimates. In these files are reported, period by period, the real time estimates of €-coin. These estimates have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability. Click xls to download the excel file containing data. For example, the following Figure -COIN INCREASES AGAIN IN MARCH €coin increases again in March For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 2 April 2021 In March €-coin rose to 1.36 (from 0.96 in February). Manufacturing firms’ confidence has continued to recover and there is less -COIN DECREASES IN APRIL BUT CONTINUES TO SIGNAL AN EXPANSION €coin decreases in April but continues to signal an expansion For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Wednesday, 5 May 2021 Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euroarea’s economy.
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1 June. 2 July (provisional) Search. Search this site: NEW EUROCOIN: A TUTORIAL NOTE New Eurocoin: A Tutorial Note The following note provides a simple presentation of ideas and methods underlying the New Eurocoin indicator. For a detailed treatment see Altissimo, F., Cristadoro, R.,Forni,
NEWS APRIL 2021
Ecoin_real_time Date Jan-99 €coin realtime - old estimate €coin realtime - new estimate As of December 2020, a new version of the indicator has been released, which incorporates some revisions to the database and to the sample on which our estimates are based.ECONOMIC BULLETIN
cONTENTS 1 OVeRVIew 5 2 The wORld ecONOMy 2.1 The financial markets and economic developments 7 2.2 The main industrial and emerging countries 11 2.3 The euro area 15 3 The ITAlIAN ecONOMy 3.1 The cyclical situation 19NEWS APRIL 2021
Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euro area’s economy. A slightly weakening in industrial activity offset the further improvement in the expectations of households and firms. As of January 2021, a new version of the indicator has been released,which
COIN ANALYSIS: 1 JUNE 2021 The revision has been made necessary by the major changes that have intervened in the statistics on which €-coin is constructed since its first publication in September 2007: industrial production, turnover and producer price indexes (amounting to roughly 30% of €-coin's database) were re-based and the new ATECO2007 classification has been implemented.USER ACCOUNT
Enter the password that accompanies your username. HomeHISTORICAL DATA
The real-time €-coin estimates. In these files are reported, period by period, the real time estimates of €-coin. These estimates have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability. Click xls to download the excel file containing data. For example, the following Figure -COIN INCREASES AGAIN IN MARCH €coin increases again in March For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 2 April 2021 In March €-coin rose to 1.36 (from 0.96 in February). Manufacturing firms’ confidence has continued to recover and there is less -COIN DECREASES IN APRIL BUT CONTINUES TO SIGNAL AN EXPANSION €coin decreases in April but continues to signal an expansion For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Wednesday, 5 May 2021 Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euroarea’s economy.
USER ACCOUNT
1 June. 2 July (provisional) Search. Search this site: NEW EUROCOIN: A TUTORIAL NOTE New Eurocoin: A Tutorial Note The following note provides a simple presentation of ideas and methods underlying the New Eurocoin indicator. For a detailed treatment see Altissimo, F., Cristadoro, R.,Forni,
NEWS APRIL 2021
Ecoin_real_time Date Jan-99 €coin realtime - old estimate €coin realtime - new estimate As of December 2020, a new version of the indicator has been released, which incorporates some revisions to the database and to the sample on which our estimates are based.ECONOMIC BULLETIN
cONTENTS 1 OVeRVIew 5 2 The wORld ecONOMy 2.1 The financial markets and economic developments 7 2.2 The main industrial and emerging countries 11 2.3 The euro area 15 3 The ITAlIAN ecONOMy 3.1 The cyclical situation 19 COIN FALLS AGAIN IN MAY €-coin falls again in May For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Tuesday, 29 May 2020 • €-coin fell from -0.13 in April to -0.32 in May, reaching its lowest level since September 2012. • The negative news on the performance of the economy following the -COIN WORSENS SLIGHTLY IN JUNE €coin worsens slightly in June For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 26 June 2020 In June €-coin fell to -0.37 (from -0.32 in May). The indicator continued to be affected by the contraction in industrial production notwithstanding the improvement in business and consumer -COIN POINTS TO A STABILIZATION IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN €coin points to a stabilization in economic activity in October For immediate release: 08.30 GMT; 09.30 CET; Friday, 30 October 2020 In October €-coin rose to -0.02 (from -0.31 in September), indicating that the underlying trend of the euro-area economy is one of virtualstagnation.
IN JULY €-COIN REMAINS NEGATIVE In July €-coin remains negative For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 31 July 2020 • In July €-coin remains negative (-0.50 from -0.37 in June). • The indicator continues to be affected by weak industrial production andUSER ACCOUNT
1 June. 2 July (provisional) Search. Search this site:THE €-COIN LAUNCH
On 20th September 2007 the Banca d'Italia and CEPR launched €-coin, a new economic activity indicator for the Euro area. It replaces the old Eurocoin index published monthly by CEPR. €-coin is a real-time, monthly estimate of area-wide GDP growth. It provides a single number summarizing the current economic outlook for the Euro area.ECONOMIC BULLETIN
cONTENTS 1 OVeRVIew 5 2 The wORld ecONOMy 2.1 The financial markets and economic developments 7 2.2 The main industrial and emerging countries 11 2.3 The euro area 15 3 The ITAlIAN ecONOMy 3.1 The cyclical situation 19NEWS APRIL 2021
Ecoin_real_time Date Jan-99 €coin realtime - old estimate €coin realtime - new estimate As of December 2020, a new version of the indicator has been released, which incorporates some revisions to the database and to the sample on which our estimates are based.NEWS APRIL 2021
Ecoin_real_time Date Jan-99 €coin realtime - new estimate As of December 2020, a new version of the indicator has been released, which incorporates some revisions to the database and to the sample on which our estimates are based.EUROCOIN.CEPR.ORG
Ecoin_real_time €coin realtime Date Period by period are here reported the real time estimates of €-coin. These have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability.NEWS APRIL 2021
Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euro area’s economy. A slightly weakening in industrial activity offset the further improvement in the expectations of households and firms. As of January 2021, a new version of the indicator has been released,which
COIN ANALYSIS: 5 MAY 2021 The revision has been made necessary by the major changes that have intervened in the statistics on which €-coin is constructed since its first publication in September 2007: industrial production, turnover and producer price indexes (amounting to roughly 30% of €-coin's database) were re-based and the new ATECO2007 classification has been implemented.USER ACCOUNT
Enter the password that accompanies your username. HomeHISTORICAL DATA
The real-time €-coin estimates. In these files are reported, period by period, the real time estimates of €-coin. These estimates have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability. Click xls to download the excel file containing data. For example, the following Figure -COIN INCREASES AGAIN IN MARCH €coin increases again in March For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 2 April 2021 In March €-coin rose to 1.36 (from 0.96 in February). Manufacturing firms’ confidence has continued to recover and there is less -COIN DECREASES IN APRIL BUT CONTINUES TO SIGNAL AN EXPANSION €coin decreases in April but continues to signal an expansion For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Wednesday, 5 May 2021 Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euroarea’s economy.
-COIN TURNS UPWARDS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER, BUT REMAINS €coin turns upwards slightly in September, but remains negative For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 30 September 2020 In September €-coin turned upwards (to -0.31, from -0.64 in August), after decreasing for six consecutive months, to reach the levelsrecorded last
NEW EUROCOIN: A TUTORIAL NOTE New Eurocoin: A Tutorial Note The following note provides a simple presentation of ideas and methods underlying the New Eurocoin indicator. For a detailed treatment see Altissimo, F., Cristadoro, R.,Forni,
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
cONTENTS 1 OVeRVIew 5 2 The wORld ecONOMy 2.1 The financial markets and economic developments 7 2.2 The main industrial and emerging countries 11 2.3 The euro area 15 3 The ITAlIAN ecONOMy 3.1 The cyclical situation 19EUROCOIN.CEPR.ORG
Ecoin_real_time €coin realtime Date Period by period are here reported the real time estimates of €-coin. These have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability.NEWS APRIL 2021
Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euro area’s economy. A slightly weakening in industrial activity offset the further improvement in the expectations of households and firms. As of January 2021, a new version of the indicator has been released,which
COIN ANALYSIS: 5 MAY 2021 The revision has been made necessary by the major changes that have intervened in the statistics on which €-coin is constructed since its first publication in September 2007: industrial production, turnover and producer price indexes (amounting to roughly 30% of €-coin's database) were re-based and the new ATECO2007 classification has been implemented.USER ACCOUNT
Enter the password that accompanies your username. HomeHISTORICAL DATA
The real-time €-coin estimates. In these files are reported, period by period, the real time estimates of €-coin. These estimates have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability. Click xls to download the excel file containing data. For example, the following Figure -COIN INCREASES AGAIN IN MARCH €coin increases again in March For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 2 April 2021 In March €-coin rose to 1.36 (from 0.96 in February). Manufacturing firms’ confidence has continued to recover and there is less -COIN DECREASES IN APRIL BUT CONTINUES TO SIGNAL AN EXPANSION €coin decreases in April but continues to signal an expansion For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Wednesday, 5 May 2021 Despite falling to 0.92 in April (from 1.36 in March), €-coin continues to signal an expansion in the underlying trend in the euroarea’s economy.
-COIN TURNS UPWARDS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER, BUT REMAINS €coin turns upwards slightly in September, but remains negative For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 30 September 2020 In September €-coin turned upwards (to -0.31, from -0.64 in August), after decreasing for six consecutive months, to reach the levelsrecorded last
NEW EUROCOIN: A TUTORIAL NOTE New Eurocoin: A Tutorial Note The following note provides a simple presentation of ideas and methods underlying the New Eurocoin indicator. For a detailed treatment see Altissimo, F., Cristadoro, R.,Forni,
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
cONTENTS 1 OVeRVIew 5 2 The wORld ecONOMy 2.1 The financial markets and economic developments 7 2.2 The main industrial and emerging countries 11 2.3 The euro area 15 3 The ITAlIAN ecONOMy 3.1 The cyclical situation 19EUROCOIN.CEPR.ORG
Ecoin_real_time €coin realtime Date Period by period are here reported the real time estimates of €-coin. These have been obtained simulating the situation one would have faced at the end of each month in terms of data availability. -COIN CONTRACTS IN APRIL €coin contracts in April For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Tuesday, 5 May 2020 In April, €-coin recorded its biggest drop on the previous month since the time series was begun, decreasing to -0.13 from 0.13 in March. -COIN POINTS TO A STABILIZATION IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN €coin points to a stabilization in economic activity in October For immediate release: 08.30 GMT; 09.30 CET; Friday, 30 October 2020 In October €-coin rose to -0.02 (from -0.31 in September), indicating that the underlying trend of the euro-area economy is one of virtualstagnation.
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1 June. 2 July (provisional) Search. Search this site: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 08.30 GMT; 09.30 CET; FRIDAY, 13 For further technical details on €-coin, see ‘New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time’, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy’s series Temi di Discussione (Working Papers), 631. -COIN RISES SLIGHTLY IN NOVEMBER €coin rises slightly in November For immediate release: 08.30 GMT; 09.30 CET; Friday, 29 November 2019 The €-coin indicator rose slightly from 0.13 in October to 0.15 in November, confirming that modest expansion in economic activity in theECONOMIC BULLETIN
cONTENTS 1 OVeRVIew 5 2 The wORld ecONOMy 2.1 The financial markets and economic developments 7 2.2 The main industrial and emerging countries 11 2.3 The euro area 15 3 The ITAlIAN ecONOMy 3.1 The cyclical situation 19 COIN DECLINES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER €-coin declines further in September For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 27 September 2019 In September the €-coin indicator decreased again (to 0.16, from 0.18 in August) but remained at levels that are compatible with a modest -COIN FALLS SLIGHTLY IN AUGUST €coin falls slightly in August For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CEST; Friday, 30 August 2019 In August €-coin resumed its decline, falling to 0.18 from 0.21 in July, after having recorded a temporary improvement last month. -COIN CONTINUES TO RISE IN SEPTEMBER €coin continues to rise in September For immediate release: 08.30 BST; 09.30 CET; Friday, 29 September 2017 In September €-coin rose to 0.71 from 0.67 in August, increasing for the fourth consecutive month. The indicator was buoyed by ongoing growth in industry and thepositive
EUROCOIN.CEPR.ORG
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* Request new passwordNEWS FEBRUARY 2021
€-COIN REMAINS STABLE IN FEBRUARY*
In February, €-COIN was practically unchanged at 0.96 (from 0.99 in January), confirming the gradual recovery of the underlying trend in the euro area’s economy.*
The improvement in manufacturing firms’ confidence was offset by the persistent weakness in services, as signalled by the latest purchasing managers’ indices.*
AS OF JANUARY 2021, A NEW VERSION OF THE INDICATOR HAS BEEN RELEASED, which incorporates some revisions to the database and to the sample on which our estimates are based. More information has been included regarding services – a sector whose importance has increased in terms of value added in the euro area €-COIN AND EURO-AREA GDP – FEBRUARY 2021 THE MOST RECENT _REAL-TIME _FIGURES ARE:MONTH
€-COIN
FEBRUARY 2020
0.32
MARCH 2020
0.13
APRIL 2020
-0.34
MAY 2020
-0.24
JUNE 2020
-1.05
JULY 2020
-1.22
AUGUST 2020
-1.59
SEPTEMBER 2020
-1.45
OCTOBER 2020
0.11
NOVEMBER 2020
0.11
DECEMBER 2020
0.38
JANUARY 2021
0.99
FEBRUARY 2021
0.96
CLICK XLS TO DOWNLOAD THE EXCEL FILE CONTAINING DATA. FOR A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS SEE THE €-COIN ANALYSISSECTION, FOR AN
OVERVIEW OF THE RECENT BEHAVIOUR OF THE SERIES ON WHICH €-COIN IS BASED SEE THE EURO AREA AT A GLANCESECTION.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE NEWS RELEASE€-COIN IN BRIEF
€-COIN IS A _REAL-TIME, MONTHLY ESTIMATE OF AREA-WIDE GDP GROWTH_, COMPUTED EACH MONTH BY THE STAFF OF THE BANCA D’ITALIA. IT PROVIDES A SINGLE NUMBER SUMMARIZING THE CURRENT ECONOMIC PICTURE FOR THE EUROAREA.
€-COIN COLLATES A LARGE COLLECTION OF STATISTICAL DATA (INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BUSINESS SURVEYS, STOCK MARKET AND FINANCIAL DATA, DEMAND INDICATORS, AND MORE) AND EXTRACTS THE INFORMATION THAT IS RELEVANT TO FORECAST GDP. IT TRACKS UNDERLYING GDP GROWTH, PRECEDING OFFICIAL GDP RELEASES BY SEVERAL MONTHS. ESSENTIALLY, THE INDEX: (I) GIVES A MONTHLY “SMOOTHED” ESTIMATE OF QUARTER-ON-QUARTER GDP GROWTH IN THE EURO AREA; (II) HIGHLIGHTS THE UNDERLYING TREND BY ADJUSTING THE GROWTH RATE FOR SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS AND MEASUREMENT ERRORS; THAT IS, THE INDEX FIGURE IS AN INDICATOR OF THE EURO AREA’S ACTUAL GROWTH MOMENTUM. FOR FURTHER TECHNICAL DETAILS ON €-COIN, SEE “NEW EUROCOIN: TRACKING ECONOMIC GROWTH IN REAL TIME”, _THE REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS_, NO. 92, 1024-1034, AVAILABLE IN THE BANK OF ITALY WORKING PAPER SERIES (TEMI DI DISCUSSIONE DELLA BANCA D’ITALIA) NO.631
HTTP://WWW.BANCADITALIA.IT/PUBBLICAZIONI/TEMI-DISCUSSIONE/2007/2007-0631/EN_TEMA_631.PDF OR CEPR DISCUSSION PAPER, NO. 5633 http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=5633.Details
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