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CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. WHAT'S YOUR MODEL ON HOW REAL GDP GROWS DURABLY? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline mythinking
DO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS EVEN MATTER ANYMORE? We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That’s above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am wondering whether it really matters. Let me explain. Yesterday, after posting on the death of the so-called bond vigilantes, I was talking to my THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The unemployment rate actually rose to 6.1%, instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. The bond market is rallying big time as a result. The net short position is forcing major short-covering, which initially pulled 10-year Treasury yields down as low as 1.469%. We'recurrently at 1.521.
BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated!EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. CHART: DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, 1928-1932 But, the indices then resume their downtrend until we reach capitulation and almost everyone is bearish. This certainly was the pattern in the Bear market from 1929-1932 during the Great Depression. There were six separate bear market rallies during that brief 3-year span. Below are the charts for the Dow Jones from 1928-1932. CULTURAL ATTITUDES ON WORK, LEISURE AND WEALTH IN EUROPE A few years ago, three economists (including a brilliant former classmate of mine, Bruce Sacerdote) produced a paper called “Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why so Different?”. Below is the abstract. (emphasis added) Americans average 25.1 working hours per person in working age per week, but the Germans average 18.6 hours.CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. WHAT'S YOUR MODEL ON HOW REAL GDP GROWS DURABLY? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline mythinking
DO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS EVEN MATTER ANYMORE? We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That’s above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am wondering whether it really matters. Let me explain. Yesterday, after posting on the death of the so-called bond vigilantes, I was talking to my THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The unemployment rate actually rose to 6.1%, instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. The bond market is rallying big time as a result. The net short position is forcing major short-covering, which initially pulled 10-year Treasury yields down as low as 1.469%. We'recurrently at 1.521.
BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated!EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. CHART: DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, 1928-1932 But, the indices then resume their downtrend until we reach capitulation and almost everyone is bearish. This certainly was the pattern in the Bear market from 1929-1932 during the Great Depression. There were six separate bear market rallies during that brief 3-year span. Below are the charts for the Dow Jones from 1928-1932. CULTURAL ATTITUDES ON WORK, LEISURE AND WEALTH IN EUROPE A few years ago, three economists (including a brilliant former classmate of mine, Bruce Sacerdote) produced a paper called “Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why so Different?”. Below is the abstract. (emphasis added) Americans average 25.1 working hours per person in working age per week, but the Germans average 18.6 hours. DO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS EVEN MATTER ANYMORE? We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That’s above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am wondering whether it really matters. Let me explain. Yesterday, after posting on the death of the so-called bond vigilantes, I was talking to my WHAT'S YOUR MODEL ON HOW REAL GDP GROWS DURABLY? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline mythinking
RISKS TO GROWTH AND INFLATION HELPING KEEP LONG RATES DOWN As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a lot of theories as to why this is happening. I want to spell out how I’m thinking about the yields and what the risks and opportunities are going THE DEATH OF THE US TREASURY BOND VIGILANTE The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante. Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literally the day before a consumer price inflation number expected to come in at 4.7%. That means the US ten-year yield is deeply negative in real terms. THE FULL-ON PANDEMIC, THE FULL RE-OPENING, AND THE Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY? Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. THE REFLATION TRADE AND THREE YIELD CURVE OUTCOMES The reflation trade and three yield curve outcomes. By Edward Harrison On Jan 15, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! Login. Edward Harrison 7744 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns anda
CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! AMERICANS PAID NOT TO WORK Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience.EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. WHAT'S YOUR MODEL ON HOW REAL GDP GROWS DURABLY? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline mythinking
DO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS EVEN MATTER ANYMORE? We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That’s above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am wondering whether it really matters. Let me explain. Yesterday, after posting on the death of the so-called bond vigilantes, I was talking to my THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The unemployment rate actually rose to 6.1%, instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. The bond market is rallying big time as a result. The net short position is forcing major short-covering, which initially pulled 10-year Treasury yields down as low as 1.469%. We'recurrently at 1.521.
BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated!EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. CHART: DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, 1928-1932 But, the indices then resume their downtrend until we reach capitulation and almost everyone is bearish. This certainly was the pattern in the Bear market from 1929-1932 during the Great Depression. There were six separate bear market rallies during that brief 3-year span. Below are the charts for the Dow Jones from 1928-1932. LEHMAN BROTHERS: A PRIMER ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was a credit event which triggered a massive liability to participants in the large and potentially dangerous Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market.CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. WHAT'S YOUR MODEL ON HOW REAL GDP GROWS DURABLY? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline mythinking
DO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS EVEN MATTER ANYMORE? We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That’s above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am wondering whether it really matters. Let me explain. Yesterday, after posting on the death of the so-called bond vigilantes, I was talking to my THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The unemployment rate actually rose to 6.1%, instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. The bond market is rallying big time as a result. The net short position is forcing major short-covering, which initially pulled 10-year Treasury yields down as low as 1.469%. We'recurrently at 1.521.
BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated!EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. CHART: DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, 1928-1932 But, the indices then resume their downtrend until we reach capitulation and almost everyone is bearish. This certainly was the pattern in the Bear market from 1929-1932 during the Great Depression. There were six separate bear market rallies during that brief 3-year span. Below are the charts for the Dow Jones from 1928-1932. LEHMAN BROTHERS: A PRIMER ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was a credit event which triggered a massive liability to participants in the large and potentially dangerous Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market. DO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS EVEN MATTER ANYMORE? We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That’s above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am wondering whether it really matters. Let me explain. Yesterday, after posting on the death of the so-called bond vigilantes, I was talking to my WHAT'S YOUR MODEL ON HOW REAL GDP GROWS DURABLY? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline mythinking
RISKS TO GROWTH AND INFLATION HELPING KEEP LONG RATES DOWN As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a lot of theories as to why this is happening. I want to spell out how I’m thinking about the yields and what the risks and opportunities are going THE DEATH OF THE US TREASURY BOND VIGILANTE The Death of the US Treasury Bond Vigilante. Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literally the day before a consumer price inflation number expected to come in at 4.7%. That means the US ten-year yield is deeply negative in real terms. THE FULL-ON PANDEMIC, THE FULL RE-OPENING, AND THE Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY? Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY, HOUSING EDITION? Bill McBride has the answer here: On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to March 2005 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to August 2004 levels. In real terms, prices are back to 2005 levels, and the price-to-rent ratio is back to late 2004, early 2005. This is what that looks like in chart form. AMERICANS PAID NOT TO WORK Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience.EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. THE DEATH OF THE US TREASURY BOND VIGILANTE Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literally the day before a consumer price inflation number expected to come in at 4.7%. That means the US ten-year yield is deeply negative in real terms. The question is WHAT'S YOUR MODEL ON HOW REAL GDP GROWS DURABLY? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline mythinking
THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The unemployment rate actually rose to 6.1%, instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. The bond market is rallying big time as a result. The net short position is forcing major short-covering, which initially pulled 10-year Treasury yields down as low as 1.469%. We'recurrently at 1.521.
THE FULL-ON PANDEMIC, THE FULL RE-OPENING, AND THE Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. US JOBS REPORT FAILS TO REINFORCE TAPERING NARRATIVE; BAD US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker andtechnology
CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! AMERICANS PAID NOT TO WORK Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored.CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. THE DEATH OF THE US TREASURY BOND VIGILANTE Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literally the day before a consumer price inflation number expected to come in at 4.7%. That means the US ten-year yield is deeply negative in real terms. The question is WHAT'S YOUR MODEL ON HOW REAL GDP GROWS DURABLY? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline mythinking
THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The unemployment rate actually rose to 6.1%, instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. The bond market is rallying big time as a result. The net short position is forcing major short-covering, which initially pulled 10-year Treasury yields down as low as 1.469%. We'recurrently at 1.521.
THE FULL-ON PANDEMIC, THE FULL RE-OPENING, AND THE Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. US JOBS REPORT FAILS TO REINFORCE TAPERING NARRATIVE; BAD US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker andtechnology
CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! AMERICANS PAID NOT TO WORK Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. THE DEATH OF THE US TREASURY BOND VIGILANTE Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literally the day before a consumer price inflation number expected to come in at 4.7%. That means the US ten-year yield is deeply negative in real terms. The question is WHAT'S YOUR MODEL ON HOW REAL GDP GROWS DURABLY? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline mythinking
DO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS EVEN MATTER ANYMORE? We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That’s above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am wondering whether it really matters. Let me explain. Yesterday, after posting on the death of the so-called bond vigilantes, I was talking to my THE FULL-ON PANDEMIC, THE FULL RE-OPENING, AND THE Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. US JOBS REPORT FAILS TO REINFORCE TAPERING NARRATIVE; BAD US jobs report fails to reinforce tapering narrative; bad news is good news. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker andtechnology
HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY? Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. CRYPTO: A SEA CHANGE IN HOW WE GAIN TRUST Crypto: a sea change in how we gain trust. By Edward Harrison On Apr 16, 2021. I have a conversation scheduled for 4PM today with Real Vision CEO and Co-Founder Raoul Pal. And I wanted to use today’s newsletter as a ‘prep’ for that discussion. Raoul has become quite ensconced in the cryptocurrency world and sees that space as aparadigm
TAX AND SPEND, CRONY CAPITALISM AND THE PEASANT REVOLT Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. By Edward Harrison On Apr 23, 2021. Let’s veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. Yesterday, news came out that Biden is tomake good
EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
THE CRYPTO LAND GRAB CONCEPT AND TECHNOLOGICAL The Crypto land grab concept and technological displacement. By Edward Harrison On Apr 20, 2021. At RealVision, we have a whole group and a whole suite of video interviews dedicated to Crypto. But I am considered a macro guy at RV. And so, I try to stay out of the crypto side of things except to the degree it relates to traditional financeand
CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. THE DEATH OF THE US TREASURY BOND VIGILANTE Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literally the day before a consumer price inflation number expected to come in at 4.7%. That means the US ten-year yield is deeply negative in real terms. The question is THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The unemployment rate actually rose to 6.1%, instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. The bond market is rallying big time as a result. The net short position is forcing major short-covering, which initially pulled 10-year Treasury yields down as low as 1.469%. We'recurrently at 1.521.
BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. THE REFLATION TRADE AND THREE YIELD CURVE OUTCOMES The reflation trade and three yield curve outcomes. By Edward Harrison On Jan 15, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! Login. Edward Harrison 7744 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns anda
CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! WORRIES ABOUT A RETAIL INVESTOR-LED SPECULATIVE MANIA That means the speculative fervor we see right now is a harbinger of another leg down, as we saw in late 2008 and early 2009. Back then, the credit cycle and the inventory cycle had yet to play out. And Q4 2008 ended up as the worst quarter we had in that THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. ENDOGENOUS OR EXOGENOUS MONEY? Endogenous or exogenous money? By Edward Harrison On Apr 3, 2012. While the debate on central bank monetary policy, banks and private debt (see here, here, here, here, and here) seems to have devolved into something unproductive, I have hopes that something more productive can be salvaged. These are important issues that peoplewant to have a
LEHMAN BROTHERS: A PRIMER ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was a credit event which triggered a massive liability to participants in the large and potentially dangerous Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market.CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. THE DEATH OF THE US TREASURY BOND VIGILANTE Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literally the day before a consumer price inflation number expected to come in at 4.7%. That means the US ten-year yield is deeply negative in real terms. The question is THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The unemployment rate actually rose to 6.1%, instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. The bond market is rallying big time as a result. The net short position is forcing major short-covering, which initially pulled 10-year Treasury yields down as low as 1.469%. We'recurrently at 1.521.
BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. THE REFLATION TRADE AND THREE YIELD CURVE OUTCOMES The reflation trade and three yield curve outcomes. By Edward Harrison On Jan 15, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! Login. Edward Harrison 7744 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns anda
CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future. By Edward Harrison On May 24, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! WORRIES ABOUT A RETAIL INVESTOR-LED SPECULATIVE MANIA That means the speculative fervor we see right now is a harbinger of another leg down, as we saw in late 2008 and early 2009. Back then, the credit cycle and the inventory cycle had yet to play out. And Q4 2008 ended up as the worst quarter we had in that THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. ENDOGENOUS OR EXOGENOUS MONEY? Endogenous or exogenous money? By Edward Harrison On Apr 3, 2012. While the debate on central bank monetary policy, banks and private debt (see here, here, here, here, and here) seems to have devolved into something unproductive, I have hopes that something more productive can be salvaged. These are important issues that peoplewant to have a
LEHMAN BROTHERS: A PRIMER ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was a credit event which triggered a massive liability to participants in the large and potentially dangerous Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market. THE FULL-ON PANDEMIC, THE FULL RE-OPENING, AND THE Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY? Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY, HOUSING EDITION? Bill McBride has the answer here: On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to March 2005 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to August 2004 levels. In real terms, prices are back to 2005 levels, and the price-to-rent ratio is back to late 2004, early 2005. This is what that looks like in chart form. WORRIES ABOUT A RETAIL INVESTOR-LED SPECULATIVE MANIA That means the speculative fervor we see right now is a harbinger of another leg down, as we saw in late 2008 and early 2009. Back then, the credit cycle and the inventory cycle had yet to play out. And Q4 2008 ended up as the worst quarter we had in that CRYPTO: A SEA CHANGE IN HOW WE GAIN TRUST Crypto: a sea change in how we gain trust. By Edward Harrison On Apr 16, 2021. I have a conversation scheduled for 4PM today with Real Vision CEO and Co-Founder Raoul Pal. And I wanted to use today’s newsletter as a ‘prep’ for that discussion. Raoul has become quite ensconced in the cryptocurrency world and sees that space as aparadigm
WILL THE FED(S) STAY THE COURSE? Edward Harrison 7768 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade.EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
TAX AND SPEND, CRONY CAPITALISM AND THE PEASANT REVOLT Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. By Edward Harrison On Apr 23, 2021. Let’s veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. Yesterday, news came out that Biden is tomake good
WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN QE1, QE2 AND QE3 I hope this post spells out the differences between the various QEs. QE3 is qualitatively different than credit easing (QE1) or quantitative easing (QE2). Let’s call QE3 rate easing. And while we can hope the economy strengthens so that rate easing is CULTURAL ATTITUDES ON WORK, LEISURE AND WEALTH IN EUROPE I happened upon an article about shops being closed in France that highlighted a larger issue about cultural attitudes in the U.S. and Europe regarding work, leisure and material wealth. I would like to share some thoughts with you on these issues because I think they are significantregarding savings, debt and other issues at theCREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. A newsletter about finance, economics, markets, and technology. Let me read it first. WORRIES ABOUT A RETAIL INVESTOR-LED SPECULATIVE MANIA I am in the middle of watching an entertaining interview of Mark Cuban by Larry McDonald on Real Vision right now. I haven’t got to the part to which I assume the title refers: “Mark Cuban — This Feels a Lot Like the Internet Bubble“. But, while I think the comparisons to the Internet Bubble are a little hyperbolic, what I was reading early this morning did scare the bejesus out of me. THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. ENDOGENOUS OR EXOGENOUS MONEY? Endogenous or exogenous money? By Edward Harrison On Apr 3, 2012. While the debate on central bank monetary policy, banks and private debt (see here, here, here, here, and here) seems to have devolved into something unproductive, I have hopes that something more productive can be salvaged. These are important issues that peoplewant to have a
CHART: DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, 1928-1932 But, the indices then resume their downtrend until we reach capitulation and almost everyone is bearish. This certainly was the pattern in the Bear market from 1929-1932 during the Great Depression. There were six separate bear market rallies during that brief 3-year span. Below are the charts for the Dow Jones from 1928-1932. LEHMAN BROTHERS: A PRIMER ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was a credit event which triggered a massive liability to participants in the large and potentially dangerous Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market. CULTURAL ATTITUDES ON WORK, LEISURE AND WEALTH IN EUROPE A few years ago, three economists (including a brilliant former classmate of mine, Bruce Sacerdote) produced a paper called “Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why so Different?”. Below is the abstract. (emphasis added) Americans average 25.1 working hours per person in working age per week, but the Germans average 18.6 hours. DANISH BANKING CRISIS THE WORST IN EUROPE Danish banking crisis the worst in Europe. The Danish crisis is quite different and much worse than what we see in the rest of Europe. That is the ruling from large megabank UBS and credit rating agency Moody’s. And UBS predicts more bank failures this year, writes Børsen. The housing and property bubble is more pronounced than inthe rest
CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. A newsletter about finance, economics, markets, and technology. Let me read it first. WORRIES ABOUT A RETAIL INVESTOR-LED SPECULATIVE MANIA I am in the middle of watching an entertaining interview of Mark Cuban by Larry McDonald on Real Vision right now. I haven’t got to the part to which I assume the title refers: “Mark Cuban — This Feels a Lot Like the Internet Bubble“. But, while I think the comparisons to the Internet Bubble are a little hyperbolic, what I was reading early this morning did scare the bejesus out of me. THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. ENDOGENOUS OR EXOGENOUS MONEY? Endogenous or exogenous money? By Edward Harrison On Apr 3, 2012. While the debate on central bank monetary policy, banks and private debt (see here, here, here, here, and here) seems to have devolved into something unproductive, I have hopes that something more productive can be salvaged. These are important issues that peoplewant to have a
CHART: DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, 1928-1932 But, the indices then resume their downtrend until we reach capitulation and almost everyone is bearish. This certainly was the pattern in the Bear market from 1929-1932 during the Great Depression. There were six separate bear market rallies during that brief 3-year span. Below are the charts for the Dow Jones from 1928-1932. LEHMAN BROTHERS: A PRIMER ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was a credit event which triggered a massive liability to participants in the large and potentially dangerous Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market. CULTURAL ATTITUDES ON WORK, LEISURE AND WEALTH IN EUROPE A few years ago, three economists (including a brilliant former classmate of mine, Bruce Sacerdote) produced a paper called “Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why so Different?”. Below is the abstract. (emphasis added) Americans average 25.1 working hours per person in working age per week, but the Germans average 18.6 hours. DANISH BANKING CRISIS THE WORST IN EUROPE Danish banking crisis the worst in Europe. The Danish crisis is quite different and much worse than what we see in the rest of Europe. That is the ruling from large megabank UBS and credit rating agency Moody’s. And UBS predicts more bank failures this year, writes Børsen. The housing and property bubble is more pronounced than inthe rest
HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY, HOUSING EDITION? Bill McBride has the answer here: On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to March 2005 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to August 2004 levels. In real terms, prices are back to 2005 levels, and the price-to-rent ratio is back to late 2004, early 2005. This is what that looks like in chart form. WORRIES ABOUT A RETAIL INVESTOR-LED SPECULATIVE MANIA I am in the middle of watching an entertaining interview of Mark Cuban by Larry McDonald on Real Vision right now. I haven’t got to the part to which I assume the title refers: “Mark Cuban — This Feels a Lot Like the Internet Bubble“. But, while I think the comparisons to the Internet Bubble are a little hyperbolic, what I was reading early this morning did scare the bejesus out of me.EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY? Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. UGLY - CREDIT WRITEDOWNS The unemployment rate actually rose to 6.1%, instead of declining to 5.8% as expected. The bond market is rallying big time as a result. The net short position is forcing major short-covering, which initially pulled 10-year Treasury yields down as low as 1.469%. We’re currently at 1.521. A QUICK WORD ON BOND VIGILANTISM AND MARKET MANIA A quick word on bond vigilantism and market mania. By Edward Harrison On Apr 19, 2021. This is the legacy Credit Writedowns blog and archive. Click here to visit The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. Your readership is greatly appreciated! Login. Edward Harrison 7767 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns anda
THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER A newsletter about finance, economics, markets, and technology. The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. A newsletter about finance, economics, markets, and technology HUGE BUDGET DEFICITS HAVE THE FED AND TRUMP ON A COLLISION Irrespective of the composition of those deficits, the key question now is the timing, because this is pro-cyclical fiscal policy. During the Obama Administration, there was a reduction in the structural budget deficit of 6% of GDP from 2010-2016. Source: International Monetary Fund, The Financial Times. Now the pendulum is swinging theother way.
A FEW THOUGHTS ABOUT THE LIMITATIONS OF GOVERNMENT The result of the increasing distrust of government has been a renewed questioning of the role and limitation of government in the American economy. When thinking about government and its role and size, there are three camps of thought. Big Government. Supporters of big government believe that government can do good. CHART OF THE DAY: HOUSEHOLD DEBT VS. SAVINGS Chart of the day: household debt vs. savings. By Edward Harrison On Jul 9, 2008. One reason many pundits feel this particular downturn will be quite nasty is the level of debt consumers have versus their savings. Since July 1982, when the stock market bottomed, Americans have been dis-saving and leveraging up like nobody’s business.CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. A newsletter about finance, economics, markets, and technology. Let me read it first. WORRIES ABOUT A RETAIL INVESTOR-LED SPECULATIVE MANIA I am in the middle of watching an entertaining interview of Mark Cuban by Larry McDonald on Real Vision right now. I haven’t got to the part to which I assume the title refers: “Mark Cuban — This Feels a Lot Like the Internet Bubble“. But, while I think the comparisons to the Internet Bubble are a little hyperbolic, what I was reading early this morning did scare the bejesus out of me. THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. ENDOGENOUS OR EXOGENOUS MONEY? Endogenous or exogenous money? By Edward Harrison On Apr 3, 2012. While the debate on central bank monetary policy, banks and private debt (see here, here, here, here, and here) seems to have devolved into something unproductive, I have hopes that something more productive can be salvaged. These are important issues that peoplewant to have a
CHART: DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, 1928-1932DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE 1928DOW JONES AVERAGE SINCE 1929DOW JONES 1928 CHARTDOW JONES AVERAGE BY PRESIDENTDOW JONES AVERAGE WIKI But, the indices then resume their downtrend until we reach capitulation and almost everyone is bearish. This certainly was the pattern in the Bear market from 1929-1932 during the Great Depression. There were six separate bear market rallies during that brief 3-year span. Below are the charts for the Dow Jones from 1928-1932. LEHMAN BROTHERS: A PRIMER ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was a credit event which triggered a massive liability to participants in the large and potentially dangerous Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market. CULTURAL ATTITUDES ON WORK, LEISURE AND WEALTH IN EUROPE A few years ago, three economists (including a brilliant former classmate of mine, Bruce Sacerdote) produced a paper called “Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why so Different?”. Below is the abstract. (emphasis added) Americans average 25.1 working hours per person in working age per week, but the Germans average 18.6 hours. A FEW THOUGHTS ABOUT THE LIMITATIONS OF GOVERNMENT The result of the increasing distrust of government has been a renewed questioning of the role and limitation of government in the American economy. When thinking about government and its role and size, there are three camps of thought. Big Government. Supporters of big government believe that government can do good.CREDIT WRITEDOWNS
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt. Edward Harrison Apr 23, 2021. Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO Edward Harrison 7770 posts 575 comments. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. A newsletter about finance, economics, markets, and technology. Let me read it first. WORRIES ABOUT A RETAIL INVESTOR-LED SPECULATIVE MANIA I am in the middle of watching an entertaining interview of Mark Cuban by Larry McDonald on Real Vision right now. I haven’t got to the part to which I assume the title refers: “Mark Cuban — This Feels a Lot Like the Internet Bubble“. But, while I think the comparisons to the Internet Bubble are a little hyperbolic, what I was reading early this morning did scare the bejesus out of me. THE LONG DECLINE OF THE GREAT BRITISH POUND By Frances Coppola. This chart caught my eye: It’s the GBP/USD exchange rate from 1915 to the present day. Accompanying this chart on Twitter was the comment “quite shocking though how much the pound has been devalued since 1945”.. This is a fine example of the way in which economic indicators can be misinterpreted when the historical narrative underlying them is ignored. ENDOGENOUS OR EXOGENOUS MONEY? Endogenous or exogenous money? By Edward Harrison On Apr 3, 2012. While the debate on central bank monetary policy, banks and private debt (see here, here, here, here, and here) seems to have devolved into something unproductive, I have hopes that something more productive can be salvaged. These are important issues that peoplewant to have a
CHART: DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, 1928-1932DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE 1928DOW JONES AVERAGE SINCE 1929DOW JONES 1928 CHARTDOW JONES AVERAGE BY PRESIDENTDOW JONES AVERAGE WIKI But, the indices then resume their downtrend until we reach capitulation and almost everyone is bearish. This certainly was the pattern in the Bear market from 1929-1932 during the Great Depression. There were six separate bear market rallies during that brief 3-year span. Below are the charts for the Dow Jones from 1928-1932. LEHMAN BROTHERS: A PRIMER ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was a credit event which triggered a massive liability to participants in the large and potentially dangerous Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market. CULTURAL ATTITUDES ON WORK, LEISURE AND WEALTH IN EUROPE A few years ago, three economists (including a brilliant former classmate of mine, Bruce Sacerdote) produced a paper called “Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why so Different?”. Below is the abstract. (emphasis added) Americans average 25.1 working hours per person in working age per week, but the Germans average 18.6 hours. A FEW THOUGHTS ABOUT THE LIMITATIONS OF GOVERNMENT The result of the increasing distrust of government has been a renewed questioning of the role and limitation of government in the American economy. When thinking about government and its role and size, there are three camps of thought. Big Government. Supporters of big government believe that government can do good. HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY? Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience.EDWARD HARRISON
Edward Harrison. Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and readsanother
THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER Here’s the obligatory bio section. I founded Credit Writedowns in 2008 as a blog and am a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with thirty years of business experience. In the past, I was a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television. But now, I spend my time as managing editor at Real US JOBS REPORT FAILS TO REINFORCE TAPERING NARRATIVE; BAD The US jobs report came in south of expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 559,000 in May but the unemployment falling to a pandemic low of 5.8% vs 6.1% in April. While the job gains were double, the upwardly revised April total of 278,000, the fact that they were short of expectations means the Fed can remain on hold indefinitely. In the ab THE CREDIT WRITEDOWNS NEWSLETTER A newsletter about finance, economics, markets, and technology. The Credit Writedowns Newsletter. A newsletter about finance, economics, markets, and technology A FEW THOUGHTS ABOUT THE LIMITATIONS OF GOVERNMENT The result of the increasing distrust of government has been a renewed questioning of the role and limitation of government in the American economy. When thinking about government and its role and size, there are three camps of thought. Big Government. Supporters of big government believe that government can do good. HUGE BUDGET DEFICITS HAVE THE FED AND TRUMP ON A COLLISION Irrespective of the composition of those deficits, the key question now is the timing, because this is pro-cyclical fiscal policy. During the Obama Administration, there was a reduction in the structural budget deficit of 6% of GDP from 2010-2016. Source: International Monetary Fund, The Financial Times. Now the pendulum is swinging theother way.
WHAT IS PRO-CYCLICALITY? Looking up the term procyclical on the Internet, I see the Wikipedia entry defines it as:. Procyclical is a term used in economics to describe how an economic quantity is related to economic fluctuations. It is the opposite of countercyclical. In business cycle theory and finance, any economic quantity that is positively correlated with the overall state of the economy is said to beMMT FOR DUMMIES
In the last few weeks, I've been seeing a lot of buzz about Modern Monetary Theory aka MMT. And most of what I'm seeing is reductionist to the point of absurdity. When I see critics of MMT talking about it, they're mostly using MMT as a shorthand for saying 'unbridled fiscal expansion without any concern for deficits'. I think this has been a very poor and uninformed debate. CULTURAL ATTITUDES ON WORK, LEISURE AND WEALTH IN EUROPE I happened upon an article about shops being closed in France that highlighted a larger issue about cultural attitudes in the U.S. and Europe regarding work, leisure and material wealth. I would like to share some thoughts with you on these issues because I think they are significantregarding savings, debt and other issues at the* __ Followers
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US JOBS REPORT FAILS TO REINFORCE TAPERING NARRATIVE; BAD NEWS ISGOOD NEWS
_ Edward Harrison _
Jun 4, 2021
Daily
ADP AND CLAIMS DATA SHOW US EMPLOYMENT PROGRESSDaily
THE MACRO CRYSTAL BALL: MACRO FRAMING AND HISTORICAL ANTECEDENTSDaily
WHERE WERE CLAIMS AT THIS POINT IN THE LAST CYCLE?Markets
HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY, HOUSING EDITION?Daily
HOW TRANSITORY IS TRANSITORY?_ Edward Harrison _
May 26, 2021
The interplay between a central bank's forward guidance and market expectations are where the rubber hits the road on long-term interest rates. It's not as easy as divining what a central bank wants to do or what market participants think…Daily
CHINESE REGULATION, THE TOP OF THE MARKET AND INVESTING IN THE FUTURE_ Edward Harrison _
May 24, 2021
I was talking to my colleague Jack Farley about the financial news flow earlier today. (We're recording a Real Vision Daily Briefing at 4:30PM EDT). He and I agreed that crypto seemed to dominate the headlines. But he and I are also sick of…Daily
EUROPE: DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK_ Edward Harrison _
May 21, 2021
I have four things on my mind today: Bullish PMIs in Europe, the electric Ford F-150 launch, non-payment on bond by Unicredit, and the Biden Administration's non-embrace of MMT. Let's take each of these in turn European economic data Look…Daily
BUY THE RUMOUR AND SELL THE NEWS AKA SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY_ Edward Harrison _
May 19, 2021
I am writing this just before the NY open of US markets. And we have the makings of serious losses on the back of an absolute pounding in the cryptocurrency space. There, the largest asset, Bitcoin, has been cut in half with most of the…Daily
EUROPEAN TECH IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE_ Edward Harrison _
May 14, 2021
You know, as I started writing today, I tried to think of a headline to suck you in. If you're reading these words, you're either a loyal reader or you got sucked in, which was my purpose. So let me tell you where I'm going with this. At…Daily
WILL THE FED(S) STAY THE COURSE?_ Edward Harrison _
May 12, 2021
This post on the bond vigilantes is inspired in part by my friend Kevin Muir and a post he just did over at The Macro Tourist. It's also inspired by the inflation numbers that came out of the US earlier today. The question to answer: how…Daily
AMERICANS PAID NOT TO WORK_ Edward Harrison _
May 11, 2021
In the wake of the last jobs report in the US, unemployment insurance has become a political football. The issue has some of the trappings of a labor vs capital tete a tete because of how the jobs report is being framed. Some thoughts below…Political Economy
UGLY
_ Edward Harrison _
May 7, 2021
Yesterday on the Real Vision Daily Briefing, my colleague Jack and I answered a question by viewer Dianna, "are there metrics you are watching closely now as compared to, say, a month ago?" My answer was US jobs numbers and initial…Daily
THE FULL-ON PANDEMIC, THE FULL RE-OPENING, AND THE EXPONENTIAL AGE_ Edward Harrison _
May 6, 2021
I am trying to figure out how to position this post for you because I have a few things on my mind. Let me start off with the most salient point: from a macroeconomic and market perspective, it's been quiet. There's almost no real news…Daily
EUROPEAN VACCINATION, MANCHIN, AND REPUBLICAN INFRASTRUCTURE SPELL EUROPEAN OUTPERFORMANCE_ Edward Harrison _
Apr 26, 2021
I am going to try and fit a few topics together into a cohesive narrative around a pivot to Europe amid an ongoing stimulus campaign on both sides of the Atlantic. The broad outline is one where both fiscal and monetary policy are…1 2 3
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