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EXPECTATION
The second moment, also called the variance of X, is a measure of the spread of the distribution of X. Synonyms for spread include variability, volatility, and uncertainty.. The third moment is a measure of skewness or asymmetry in the distribution of X. For example, suppose that we hold a raffle where we sell 100 tickets for $10 each, and we give a $500 prize to the winner.MEAN AND VARIANCE
The mean, or first moment, of a distribution is a measure of the average. Suppose that a random variable has three outcomes. To calculate the mean of X, we compute E (X). That is, The variance of X is calculated as E (X - X) 2. We can augment our table as follows: Now, we take E (X - X) 2 . Suppose that the values of X were raised to4, 6, and 13.
THE TOP 150 INTELLECTUALS, SELECTED COMPETITIVELY The top 150 intellectuals, selected competitively. We held the Fantasy Intellectual Teams draft on Saturday. 10 owners competed. The owners came from the readership of this blog, and they themselves are not public figures in any way. The intellectuals they chose are shown below in the order they were selected. ASKBLOG | TAKING THE MOST CHARITABLE VIEW OF THOSE WHO The first national poll to ask detailed questions of American voters about efforts to impose Critical Race Theory and “social justice” curriculum on K-12 schools found overwhelming opposition to it and strong support for a de-politicized curriculum. The poll seems to have been commissioned by a parent’ group that opposes CRT in theschools.
DIFFERENT TYPES OF EXPERTISE Different Types of Expertise. Posted on January 15, 2017. by Arnold Kling. Something bothered me about the way that Tyler Cowen framed the issue of rule by experts vs. popular rule. He refers to David Levy and Sandra Peart’s new book, which I started reading. I think I am going to be bothered by their framing, also. ELITE OVER-PRODUCTION Elite over-production. for some time now, the West has been using a massive expansion of higher education to create a new class of functionaries—”knowledge-workers” and would-be managers—in numbers far in excess of what the labor market can or could absorb. Yet, it is only just now that we are seeing, with clear eyes, thatthis class of
WHY ARE TAXIS INEFFICIENT? Why Are Taxis Inefficient? A new study by Judd Cramer and Alan Krueger at Princeton found that only 40% of the miles that taxis drive in Los Angeles and Seattle are spent carrying a passenger someplace the person wants to go. By contrast, for UberX the numbers are 64% and 55% for the two cities, respectively.MMT AND VENEZUELA
MMT and Venezuela. Inflation, MMT’s proponents contend, can be controlled through taxation, and only becomes a problem at full employment—and we’re a long way off from that, particularly if we include people who have given up looking for jobs or aren’t working as much as they’d like to among the officially “unemployed.”. ARNOLD KLING'S PERSONAL WEB PAGEMEMOIRS OF A WOULD-BE MACROECONOMISTAP ECONOMICSAP STATISTICSECONOMICS FOR THE CITIZEN Arnold Kling's personal web page. December, 2020. I have had my own web site for about 20 years, and I have done a lot of writing. Organizing it is a chore. I can be reached at arnoldsk@us.net. ASKBLOG | TAKING THE MOST CHARITABLE VIEW OF THOSE WHOPOLITICSSULLYDISHFIVE BOOKS ON MACROECONOMICSTHE GENTRIFICATION PHENOMENONARNOLD KLING ASK BLOGARNOLD KLING THREE LANGUAGESARNOLD KLING BLOGARNOLD KLING ON TWITTERARNOLD KLINGARNOLD KLING ECONOMIST Marc Novicoff (intern for Matt Yglesias) writes,. Here at Slow Boring, we’ve written on defunding the police a couple times, and I don’t think it’s a good idea. But on top of that, I also don’t think it’s a progressive idea, and the fact that it became one and somehow can’t unbecome one points to the biggest problem in the progressive movement: its extremely recently enshrined, yetEXPECTATION
The second moment, also called the variance of X, is a measure of the spread of the distribution of X. Synonyms for spread include variability, volatility, and uncertainty.. The third moment is a measure of skewness or asymmetry in the distribution of X. For example, suppose that we hold a raffle where we sell 100 tickets for $10 each, and we give a $500 prize to the winner.MEAN AND VARIANCE
The mean, or first moment, of a distribution is a measure of the average. Suppose that a random variable has three outcomes. To calculate the mean of X, we compute E (X). That is, The variance of X is calculated as E (X - X) 2. We can augment our table as follows: Now, we take E (X - X) 2 . Suppose that the values of X were raised to4, 6, and 13.
THE TOP 150 INTELLECTUALS, SELECTED COMPETITIVELY The top 150 intellectuals, selected competitively. We held the Fantasy Intellectual Teams draft on Saturday. 10 owners competed. The owners came from the readership of this blog, and they themselves are not public figures in any way. The intellectuals they chose are shown below in the order they were selected. ASKBLOG | TAKING THE MOST CHARITABLE VIEW OF THOSE WHO The first national poll to ask detailed questions of American voters about efforts to impose Critical Race Theory and “social justice” curriculum on K-12 schools found overwhelming opposition to it and strong support for a de-politicized curriculum. The poll seems to have been commissioned by a parent’ group that opposes CRT in theschools.
DIFFERENT TYPES OF EXPERTISE Different Types of Expertise. Posted on January 15, 2017. by Arnold Kling. Something bothered me about the way that Tyler Cowen framed the issue of rule by experts vs. popular rule. He refers to David Levy and Sandra Peart’s new book, which I started reading. I think I am going to be bothered by their framing, also. ELITE OVER-PRODUCTION Elite over-production. for some time now, the West has been using a massive expansion of higher education to create a new class of functionaries—”knowledge-workers” and would-be managers—in numbers far in excess of what the labor market can or could absorb. Yet, it is only just now that we are seeing, with clear eyes, thatthis class of
WHY ARE TAXIS INEFFICIENT? Why Are Taxis Inefficient? A new study by Judd Cramer and Alan Krueger at Princeton found that only 40% of the miles that taxis drive in Los Angeles and Seattle are spent carrying a passenger someplace the person wants to go. By contrast, for UberX the numbers are 64% and 55% for the two cities, respectively.MMT AND VENEZUELA
MMT and Venezuela. Inflation, MMT’s proponents contend, can be controlled through taxation, and only becomes a problem at full employment—and we’re a long way off from that, particularly if we include people who have given up looking for jobs or aren’t working as much as they’d like to among the officially “unemployed.”. MATHEMATICAL GROWTH MODELS Here is a numerical example of a two-equation Malthusian model. Y t = 1000 + L t. L t = 600 + 100* (Y t-1 /L t-1) 2. This generation's food production, Y t, increases linearly with this generation's labor supply (population). WHAT ABOUT THE ANTI-LIBERAL LEFT? 21 hours ago · In their debate sponsored by Bari Weiss, Christopher Rufo argues that illiberalism on the right, as exemplified by the January 6 Capitol riot, is weak and marginal.But he sees illiberalism on the left as hegemonic, or nearly so. David French disagrees. Instead, he sees illiberalism on both left and right as having roughlyequal status.
SHOULD WE FEAR CONFUCIUS? As I recall, before Covid, Dr. Kling labeled the Trump administration’s view of China as “China bad.” Now that there is what he calls a “respectability cascade” for the view that the virus probably escaped from a lab in Wuhan, can we acknowledge that there may have been some basis for the Trump administration’s viewof China?
WHAT I AM TRYING TO READ 1. Noise, by Cass Sunstein, Daniel Kahneman, and Olivier Sibony.The first two authors are Fantasy Intellectual Teams selections. As I often do when reading, I skipped ahead to the conclusion. They make the point that algorithms can reduce noise relative to human judgment. PUBLIC SCHOOLS AND CRT 1 day ago · Notice it doesn’t occur to Kling to question the central government in a gigantic state requiring every school to teach CRT. He’s only stirred to question attempts in a few states to stop public schools (which are run by political subdivisions of the state, and chiefly funded by local taxpayers, who only theoretically control local school boards) from teaching this garbage.FINAL STANDINGS
The May Fantasy Intellectual Teams wound up.. The winning team had leading scorers in every category. Podcasters Tyler Cowen, Andrew Sullivan, and Yascha Mounk asked many Devil’s Advocate questions oftheir guests.
THE OUTRAGE MACHINES In an essay, I write,. Even if you could somehow purge social media of every lie, it would still be a sewer. Twitter, Facebook, the New York Times, and Fox News are outrage machines. PROGRESSIVE VS. WOKE Marc Novicoff (intern for Matt Yglesias) writes,. Here at Slow Boring, we’ve written on defunding the police a couple times, and I don’t think it’s a good idea. But on top of that, I also don’t think it’s a progressive idea, and the fact that it became one and somehow can’t unbecome one points to the biggest problem in the progressive movement: its extremely recently enshrined, yet SPEAKING OF HIGH CONFLICT As for how Puritans acted. There is a statue of Anne Hutchinson in front of the Massachusetts State House. From Wikipedia: “Anne Hutchinson (July 1591 – August 1643) was a Puritan spiritual advisor, religious reformer, and an important participant in the Antinomian Controversy which shook the infant Massachusetts Bay Colonyfrom 1636 to 1638.
MEASURING THE STANDARD OF LIVING This measure of the standard of living is closely related to labor productivity, which is defined as real GDP divided by the total number of hours worked. By definition, Standard of living = real GDP/population. Labor productivity = real GDP/hours worked. Then algebraically we have.ARNOLD KLING
December, 2020. I have had my own web site for about 20 years, and I have done a lot of writing. Organizing it is a chore. I can be reached at arnoldsk@us.netBIOGRAPHICAL
I am an economist by training, on my nth career, which involves writing. Career n-1 included teaching as well as writing and blogging. Career n-2 was as an Internet entrepreneur . Career n-3 was as a middle manager with Freddie Mac. Career n-4 was as an economist with the Fed. Here is a more extended biography.
BOOKS
* The Three Languages of Politics2019
(revised and expanded from a 2013 self-published e-book) * Specialization and Trade2016
* Memoirs of a Would-be Macroeconomistnever published
* Unchecked and Unbalanced: How the Discrepancy between Knowledge and Power Caused the Financial Crisis and Threatens Democracy2009
* From Poverty to Prosperity: Intangible Assets, Hidden Liabilities and The Lasting Triumph over Scarcity co-authored with Nick Schulz, 2009. Reissued in paperback as_Invisible Wealth_.
* Crisis of Abundance: Rethinking How We Pay for Health Care2006
* Learning Economics2004
* Under the Radar: Starting Your Net Business Without VentureCapital
2001
TEACHING
* AP economics (for high school students)* AP Statistics
* economics for the citizen taught at George Mason fora few years
* vHandouts I created "virtual handouts" (skill drills and hints) for my AP stat and AP econ classes * The American Housing Finance Systemfor MRuniversity
BLOGGING
* askblog . November 2012 -present
* EconLog January 2003 - June 2012 * Great Questions of Economics 2001 - 2002 * Internet Bubble Monitor 1999 - 2001BOOK REVIEWS
* For the Library of Economics and Liberty* On Amazon
ACADEMIC PAPERS (DOES NOT INCLUDE PAPERS PUBLISHED BEFORE 2000) ANDOTHER LONG ESSAYS
* The Congressional Budget Office and the Demand for Pseudoscience _Yale Law and Policy Review_ 2017. * The Keynesian Aggregation Problemin Steven
Kates, ed., What's Wrong with Keynesian Economic Theory?2016
* The 1970s: The Decade the Phillips Curve Diedin Randall E.
Parker and Robert M. Whaples, ed. _Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History_.2013 * Macroeconometrics: The Science of Hubris_Critical
Review_, issues 1-2, 2011 * PSST: Patterns of Sustainable Specialization and Trade, _Capitalism and
Society_ Vol. 6, No. 2, 2011. * Patterns of Sustainable Specialization and Trade: A Smith-Ricardo Theory of Macroeconomics * The Financial Crisis of 2008: Moral Failure or Cognitive Failure? _Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy_, March 2010 * The Chess Game of Financial Regulation2009
* Not What They Had in Mind: A History of Policies that Caused the Financial Crisis of 2008" * The New Commanding Heights (co-authored with Nick Schulz) in _National Affairs_ 2011 * Cultural Intelligence in _National Affairs_ 2016 * How Effective is Economic Theory? in _National Affairs_ 2017 * Economics After the Virus in _National Affairs_ 2020ESSAYS
At some point, I will put together a page that lists all of these. It will be really long. Meanwhile, here are some sources.* aimstindex
* archive of TCS Daily * American Enterprise Institute* Medium (includes
stories written by others that mention me. I need to create my ownindex.)
ISRAELI DANCING
* A few essays on dancing*
Let's celebrate culturalappropriation
* My 60th Birthday PartyDetails
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