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ESSAYS · GWERN.NET
Essays · Gwern.net. This is the website of Gwern Branwen. I write about psychology, statistics, and technology. I am best known for work on the darknet markets & Bitcoin , blinded self- experiments , dual n-back & spaced repetition , and anime neural networks . For information about my site’s philosophy & method, see the About CHOOSE-YOUR-OWN-ADVENTURE AI DUNGEON GAMES · GWERN.NET A useful variation on AI Dungeon-style (AID) text games would be to turn them into shared public game trees of pre-generated options which the user selects from, Choose-Your-Own-Adventure-book style.. This can dramatically reduce costs as users spend most of their time reading cached output (rarely needing nor wanting to generate brandnew output requiring a NN run), can increase quality as IN VIVO CRISPR BASE EDITING OF PCSK9 DURABLY LOWERS Nature | Vol 593 | 20 May 2021 | 429 Article In vivo CRISPR base editing of PCSK9 durably lowers cholesterol in primates Kiran Musunuru1,2,3, Alexandra C. Chadwick4, Taiji Mizoguchi 4, Sara P. Garcia4, Jamie E. DeNizio4, Caroline W. Reiss4, Kui Wang 4, Sowmya Iyer 4, Chaitali Dutta 4, Victoria Clendaniel4, Michael Amaonye 4, Aaron Beach 4, Kathleen Berth 4, Souvik Biswas 4, THE PROMISE AND CHALLENGE OF THERAPEUTIC GENOME EDITING Nature | Vol 578 | 13 February 2020 | 229 Review The promise and challenge of therapeutic genome editing Jennifer A. Doudna 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 * Genome editing, which involves the precise manipulation of cellular DNA sequences NEO-DARWINISMSTILLHAUNTSEVOLUTIONARY THEORY PERSPECTIVE doi:10.1111/evo.14268 Neo-darwinismstillhauntsevolutionary theory:Amodernperspectiveon Charlesworth,Lande,andSlatkin(1982) Zachary B. Hancock,1,2,3 Emma S RAPID SEQUENCING-BASED DIAGNOSIS OF THIAMINE METABOLISM The new england journal of medicine n engl j med 384;22 nejm.org June 3, 2021 Correspondence Rapid Sequencing-Based Diagnosis of Thiamine Metabolism Dysfunction Syndrome To the Editor: Approximately 30 years after the start of the Human Genome Project, we se- GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDY OF MORE THAN 40,000 BIPOLAR ARTICLeS https://doi.org/10.1038/s41588-021-00857-4 A full list of authors and their affiliations appears at the end of the paper. Genome-wide association study of THE SCAVENGING PATTERNS OF FERAL CATS ON HUMAN REMAINS IN TECHNICAL NOTE ANTHROPOLOGY Sara Garcia,1 B.A.; Alexander Smith,1 B.A.; Christiane Baigent,1 M.Sc.; and Melissa Connor,1 Ph.D. The Scavenging Patterns of Feral Cats on Human Remains in an Outdoor Setting* ABSTRACT: Two cases of feral cat (Felis catus) scavenging were documented at the Forensic Investigation Research Station in Whitewater, Colorado. Human remains at the facility are A NEO-DARWINIAN COMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION Evolution, 36(3), 1982, pp. 474-498 A NEO-DARWINIANCOMMENTARY ON MACROEVOLUTION BRIAN CHARLESWORTH Population Biology Group,.School of Biological Sciences,THE BASIC AI DRIVES
The Basic AI Drives Stephen M. OMOHUNDRO Self-Aware Systems, Palo Alto, California Abstract. One might imagine that AI systems with harmless goals will be harmless.ESSAYS · GWERN.NET
Essays · Gwern.net. This is the website of Gwern Branwen. I write about psychology, statistics, and technology. I am best known for work on the darknet markets & Bitcoin , blinded self- experiments , dual n-back & spaced repetition , and anime neural networks . For information about my site’s philosophy & method, see the About HIGH–FREQUENCY NEUROMODULATION IMPROVES OBSESSIVE LETTERS NATURE MEDICINE scale in OCD research26,27.The baseline measurement was taken prior to HD-tACS on the first day. Follow-up measurements were taken on POSSIBLE PRINCIPLES UNDERLYING THE TRANSFORMATIONS OF Possible Principles Underlying the Transformations of Sensory Messages Page 3 of 14 PRINTED FROM MIT PRESS SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.mitpress.universitypressscholarship.com). GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDY IDENTIFIES EIGHT RISK LOCI letters, s41588-019-0439-2. PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION maximize the expected value of terminal utility J U(x) dFTA(x).Assume sufficient hypotheses on U and the set of FTA so that the integral is defined and that furthermore the maximizing allocation A*(U) exists. THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING AND DIGITAL ARTICLES NATureHumANBeHAviOur pre-registrationuntenableasageneralsolutiontotheproblemof subjectiveanalyticaldecisions.Inthisarticlewearguethatspeci THE HAPPY PERSONALITY: A META-ANALYSIS OF 137 PERSONALITYLIST OF PERSONALITY TRAITSCHILD S PERSONALITY LISTGREAT PERSONALITY TRAITSPERSONALITY TRAITS OF PEOPLE 198 DENEVE AND COOPER ness to experience. Although SWB levels will change when recent life events (either positive or adverse) deviate from then-normal pattern,ESSAYS - GWERN.NET
Essays - Gwern.net
CONCORDANCE IN PHYSICAL GROWTH FOR MONOZYGOTIC AND Growth of MZ and DZ twins 3 MZ DZ MZ DZ No. of twins Age Mean Mean SD SD MZ/DZ Birth 47"3 48-4* 2'81 3"39 176/158 3 months 57-8 58"2 2-722"88 258/240
MUSIC WHILE YOU WORK: THE DIFFERENTIAL DISTRACTION OFMUSIC DISTRACTING TO WORKNON DISTRACTING MUSIC Since the turn of the century researchers have been interested in the possible benefits of music at work. During the 1940s and 1950s there was a flurry of interestESSAYS · GWERN.NET
Essays · Gwern.net. This is the website of Gwern Branwen. I write about psychology, statistics, and technology. I am best known for work on the darknet markets & Bitcoin , blinded self- experiments , dual n-back & spaced repetition , and anime neural networks . For information about my site’s philosophy & method, see the About HIGH–FREQUENCY NEUROMODULATION IMPROVES OBSESSIVE LETTERS NATURE MEDICINE scale in OCD research26,27.The baseline measurement was taken prior to HD-tACS on the first day. Follow-up measurements were taken on POSSIBLE PRINCIPLES UNDERLYING THE TRANSFORMATIONS OF Possible Principles Underlying the Transformations of Sensory Messages Page 3 of 14 PRINTED FROM MIT PRESS SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.mitpress.universitypressscholarship.com). GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDY IDENTIFIES EIGHT RISK LOCI letters, s41588-019-0439-2. PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND THE KELLY CRITERION maximize the expected value of terminal utility J U(x) dFTA(x).Assume sufficient hypotheses on U and the set of FTA so that the integral is defined and that furthermore the maximizing allocation A*(U) exists. THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADOLESCENT WELL-BEING AND DIGITAL ARTICLES NATureHumANBeHAviOur pre-registrationuntenableasageneralsolutiontotheproblemof subjectiveanalyticaldecisions.Inthisarticlewearguethatspeci THE HAPPY PERSONALITY: A META-ANALYSIS OF 137 PERSONALITYLIST OF PERSONALITY TRAITSCHILD S PERSONALITY LISTGREAT PERSONALITY TRAITSPERSONALITY TRAITS OF PEOPLE 198 DENEVE AND COOPER ness to experience. Although SWB levels will change when recent life events (either positive or adverse) deviate from then-normal pattern,ESSAYS - GWERN.NET
Essays - Gwern.net
CONCORDANCE IN PHYSICAL GROWTH FOR MONOZYGOTIC AND Growth of MZ and DZ twins 3 MZ DZ MZ DZ No. of twins Age Mean Mean SD SD MZ/DZ Birth 47"3 48-4* 2'81 3"39 176/158 3 months 57-8 58"2 2-722"88 258/240
MUSIC WHILE YOU WORK: THE DIFFERENTIAL DISTRACTION OFMUSIC DISTRACTING TO WORKNON DISTRACTING MUSIC Since the turn of the century researchers have been interested in the possible benefits of music at work. During the 1940s and 1950s there was a flurry of interest CHOOSE-YOUR-OWN-ADVENTURE AI DUNGEON GAMES · GWERN.NET A useful variation on AI Dungeon-style (AID) text games would be to turn them into shared public game trees of pre-generated options which the user selects from, Choose-Your-Own-Adventure-book style.. This can dramatically reduce costs as users spend most of their time reading cached output (rarely needing nor wanting to generate brandnew output requiring a NN run), can increase quality as SIGNALING VIRTUOUS VICTIMHOOD AS INDICATORS OF DARK TRIAD Signaling Virtuous Victimhood as Indicators of Dark Triad Personalities Ekin Ok, Yi Qian, Brendan Strejcek, and Karl Aquino University of British Columbia ORDINARY INCOMPETENCE · GWERN.NET Incompetence is the norm; most people who engage in a task (even when incentivized for performance or engaging in it for countless hours) may still be making basic errors which could be remedied with coaching or deliberate practice. AUTONOMOUS NAVIGATION OF STRATOSPHERIC BALLOONS USING Nature | Vol 588 | 3 December 2020 | 77 Article Autonomous navigation of stratospheric balloons using reinforcement learning Marc G. Bellemare 1 , Salvatore Candido 3 , Pablo Samuel Castro 1, Jun Gong 3, Marlos C. Machado 1, Subhodeep Moitra 1, Sameera S. Ponda 3 & Ziyu Wang 2 Eiciently navigating a superpressure balloon in the stratosphere 1 requires the BENEFITS AND LIMITATIONS OF GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION STUDIES diabetes mellitus (T2DM)17, coronary artery dis- ease18, schizophrenia19, inflammatory bowel disease20, insomnia21, body mass index (BMI)22 and educational attainment 23, among others.This surge of replicable associations is in stark contrast to the pre-GWAS era, in which only a handful of robustly associated loci were BASE EDITING OF HAEMATOPOIETIC STEM CELLS RESCUES SICKLE Nature | www.nature.com | 1 rtce Base editing of haematopoietic stem cells rescues sickle cell disease in mice Gregory A. Newby1,2,3,12, Jonathan S. Yen4,12 , Kaitly VITAMIN D STATUS AND ILL HEALTH: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW Vitamin D status and ill health: a systematic review Review, THE BIG FIVE PERSONALITY DIMENSIONS AND JOB PERFORMANCE… PERSONNEL PSYCHOLOGY 1991.44 THE BIG FIVE PERSONALITY DIMENSIONS AND JOB PERFORMANCE: A META-ANALYSIS MURRAY R. BARRICK, MICHAEL K. MOUNT Department of Management and Organizations THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BASELINE PUPIL SIZE AND INTELLIGENCE The relationship between baseline pupil size and intelligence Jason S. Tsukahara⇑, Tyler L. Harrison, Randall W. Engle Georgia Institute of Technology, United States article info Article history: ON DISCRIMINATIVE VS. GENERATIVE CLASSIFIERS: A COMPARISON by thresholding p(ylx) to make predictions. Given a classifier hGen fit according to the first criterion, and a model hDis fit according to either the second or the third criterion (using the same parametric family of models), we call hGen and Site Me New: _mail__/r/gwern_
support on
PATREON
This is the website of GWERN BRANWEN. I am most interested in psychology, statistics, and technology; I am best known for my writings on the darknet markets & Bitcoin , blinded self-experiments & Quantified Self analyses, dual n-back & spaced repetition, and modafinil . For information about my site’s philosophy, method, traffic statistics, and implementation, see the _About page _; for information about myself, my use of other websites, and contact information, see the _Links page _; for information about new pages, see the _Changelog_; to receive updates, news, & reviews, _changelog ), collations of links or discussions from my subreddit, and book/movie reviews. You can also browse the archives since December 2013.">subscribe to the newsletter_ (changelog ), collations of links or discussions from my subreddit, and book/movie reviews.)">archives).NEWEST
*
March 2020 newsletter * Order Statistics: The Probability of a Double Maximum*
February 2020 newsletter*
On Subscripting Citations*
Danbooru2019 Released*
Preference Learning GPT-2*
ThisWaifuDoesNotExist.net (TWDNE) is a static website which uses JS to display random anime faces generated by StyleGAN neural networks, along with GPT-2-generated 'anime plot summaries'. A screenshot of “This Waifu Does Not Exist” (TWDNE) showing a random StyleGAN-generated anime face and a random GPT-2-117M text sample conditioned on anime keywords/phrases. ">This Waifu Does Not Existanime portrait StyleGAN 2 , an improvement to StyleGAN released in December 2019, which removes the blob artifacts and is generally of somewhat higher visual quality. TWDNEv3 provides images in 3 ranges of diversity, showing off both narrow but high quality samples and more wild samples. It replaces the StyleGAN 1 faces and portraitsamples.">v3
*
When I originally trained the models in May 2019, I’d used the 345M version of GPT-2, which at the time was the largest one that OpenAI had publicly released. Last November, however, OpenAI finally released the full 1.5 billion parameter model.
The 1.5B model requires much more memory to fine-tune than the 345M, so I was initially having a lot of difficulty getting it to work on Colab. Thankfully, I was contacted by /u/gwern (here’s his Patreon) and Shawn Presser (/u/shawwwn), who very generously offered to do the fine-tuning themselves if I provided them with the dataset. This training took about 2 weeks, and apparently required around $70K worth of TPU credits, so in hindsight this upgrade definitely wouldn’t have been possible for me to do myself, without their assistance. Based on my tests of the new model so far, I’m pretty happy with the quality, and IMO it is noticeably more coherent than the 345M version. One thing that I should point out about the upgrade is that the original 345M models had been separately fine-tuned for each subreddit individually (i.e. there were 108 separate models), whereas the upgraded one is just a single 1.5B model that has been fine-tuned using a combined dataset containing the comments/submissions from _all_ the subreddits that I scraped. The main reason for this decision is simply that it would not have been feasible to train ~100 separate 1.5B models. Also, there may have been benefits from transfer learning across subreddits, which wouldn’t occur with separate models. …Here is the full list of new bots to be added: /r/capitalismvsocialism ¶ /r/chess ¶ /r/conlangs ¶ /r/dota2 ¶ /r/etymology ¶ /r/fiftyfifty ¶ /r/hobbydrama ¶ /r/markmywords ¶ /r/moviedetails ¶ /r/neoliberal ¶ /r/obscuremedia ¶ /r/recipes ¶ /r/riddles ¶ /r/stonerphilosophy ¶ /r/subsimulatorgpt2 ¶ /r/subsimulatorgpt2meta ¶ /r/tellmeafact ¶ /r/twosentencehorror ¶ /r/ukpolitics ¶ /r/wordavalanches ¶ /r/wouldyourather ¶ /r/zen ">GPT-2 Subreddit Simulator*
14 Internet Search Case Studies * fixing that , I successfully trained it on _n_=205,304 ABC music pieces taken from The Session & ABCnotation.com. The resulting music samples are in my opinion quitepleasant.
The model & dataset are available for download, and I provide for listening selected music samples as well as medleys of random samples from throughout training.">GPT-2 Folk Music
* _The Replication Crisis_ : a shockingly large fraction of psychological research and other fields is simple random noise which cannot be replicated.*
_Everything Is Correlated_: when we systematically measure many variables at large scale with large _n_, we find that ‘everything is correlated’—even things which seem to have no causal relationshipwhatsoever.
*
_The Metallic Laws_: empirically, most efforts to change human behavior and sociology and economics and education fail in randomized evaluation and the mean effect size of experiments in meta-analyses typically approaches zero, despite promising correlations.*
_Correlation ≠ Causation_: so, we live in a world where research manufactures many spurious results and, even once we see through the fake findings, finding a correlation is meaningless because everything is correlated to begin with and accordingly, they are little better than experimenting at random, which doesn’t work well either. But _why_ is correlation ≠ causation?*
_Dense Causal Graphs_: because, if we write down a causal graph consistent with ‘everything is correlated’ and the empirical facts of average null effects + unpredictive correlations, this implies that all variables are part of enormous dense causal graphs where each variable is connected to several others.*
_Incorrect Intuitions_: This inequality between observable correlations and actual useful causal manipulability merely grows with larger networks, and causal networks in fields like economics or biology are far more complex than those in more ordinary everyday fields like ‘catching a ball’. Our intuitions, formed in simple domains designed to have sparse causal networks (it would be bad if balls could make you do random things! your brain is carefully designed to control the influence of any outside forces & model the world as simple for planning purposes), turn out to be profoundly misleading in these otherdomains.
*
_No, Really, Correlation ≠ Causation_: This cognitive bias is why correlation ≠ causation is so difficult to internalize and accept, and honored primarily in the breach even by sophisticated researchers, and is why randomized experiments are historically late developed, neglected, counterintuitive, and criticized when run despite routinely debunking conventional wisdom of experts in almost every field. ">Correlation & Causality * Hydrocephalus and Intelligence * GoodReads’ Most Abandoned * Rubrication in DesignPOPULAR
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Silk Road 1: Theory & Practice*
Darknet Market Archives (2013–2015)*
Darknet Market Arrests (2011–2015)*
Modafinil
*
LSD microdosing self-experiment*
I discuss my beliefs about Quantified Self, and demonstrate with a series of single-subject design self-experiments using a Zeo. A Zeo records sleep via EEG; I have made many measurements and performed many experiments. This is what I have learned so far: * the Zeo headband is wearable long-term * melatonin improves my sleep * one-legged standing does little * Vitamin D at night damages my sleep & Vitamin D in morning doesnot affect my sleep
* potassium (over the day but not so much the morning) damages my sleep and does not improve my mood/productivity * small quantities of alcohol appear to make little difference to mysleep quality
* I may be better off changing my sleep timing by waking up somewhat earlier & going to bed somewhat earlier * lithium orotate does not affect my sleep * Redshift causes me to go to bed earlier * ZMA: inconclusive results slightly suggestive of benefits ">Zeo sleep self-experiments *Dual N-Back FAQ
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Spaced repetition
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_Death Note_: L, Anonymity & Entropy * Commoditize Your Complement*
Prompted by the shutdown of Google Reader, I ponder the evanescence of online services and wonder what is the risk of them disappearing. I collect data on 350 Google products launched before March 2013, looking for variables predictive of mortality (web hits, service vs software, commercial vs free, FLOSS, social networking, and internal vs acquired). Shutdowns are unevenly distributed over the calendar year or Google’s history. I use logistic regression & survival analysis (which can deal with right-censorship) to model the risk of shutdown over time and examine correlates. The logistic regression indicates socialness, acquisitions, and lack of web hits predict being shut down, but the results may not be right. The survival analysis finds a median lifespan of 2824 days with a roughly Type III survival curve (high early-life mortality); a Cox regression finds similar results as the logistic - socialness, free, acquisition, and long life predict lower mortality. Using the best model, I make predictions about probability of shutdown of the most risky and least risky services in the next 5 years (up to March 2018). (All data & R source code is provided.) ">Google survival analysis*
Banner Ads Considered Harmful*
ThisWaifuDoesNotExist.net (TWDNE) is a static website which uses JS to display random anime faces generated by StyleGAN neural networks, along with GPT-2-generated 'anime plot summaries'. A screenshot of “This Waifu Does Not Exist” (TWDNE) showing a random StyleGAN-generated anime face and a random GPT-2-117M text sample conditioned on anime keywords/phrases.">This Waifu Does Not Exist (Generating high-quality anime faces has long been a task neural networks struggled with. The invention of StyleGAN in 2018 has effectively solved this task and I have trained a StyleGAN model which can generate high-quality anime faces at 512px resolution. To show off the recent progress, I made a website, “This Waifu Does Not Exist” for displaying random StyleGAN faces. TWDNE displays a different neural-net-generated face & plot summary every 15s. The site was popular and went viral online, especially in China. TWDNE faces have been used as screensavers, user avatars, character art for game packs or online games, uploaded to Pixiv, and used in a research paper (Noguchi & Harada 2019). TWDNE results also helped inspired Sizigi Studio’s online interactive waifu GAN, Waifu Labs, which generates even better anime faces than my StyleGAN results.">details)
*
The Neural Net/Tank Urban Legend*
Time-lock cryptography*
Archiving URLs
*
Terrorism is not about Terror*
The Melancholy of Subculture SocietyNOTABLE
* Why Correlation ≠ Causation * Shulman & Bostrom 2014 /Hsu 2014, I consider the case of human intelligence using SNP-based genetic prediction, finding: * a meta-analysis of GCTA results indicates that SNPs can explain >33% of variance in current intelligence scores, and >44% with better-quality phenotype testing * this sets an upper bound on the effectiveness of selection: a gain of 9 IQ points when selecting the top embryo out of 10 * the best 2016 polygenic score could achieve a gain of ~3 IQ points when selecting out of 10 * the marginal cost of embryo selection (assuming IVF is already being done) is modest, at $1500 + $200 per embryo, with the sequencing cost projected to drop rapidly * a model of the IVF process, incorporating number of extracted eggs, losses to abnormalities & vitrification & failed implantation & miscarriages from 2 real IVF patient populations, estimates feasible gains of 0.39 & 0.68 IQ points * embryo selection is currently unprofitable (mean: -$358) in the USA under the lowest estimate of the value of an IQ point, but profitable under the highest (mean: $6230). The main constraints on selection profitability is the polygenic score; under the highest value, the NPV EVPI of a perfect SNP predictor is $24b and the EVSI per education/SNPsample is $71k
* under the worst-case estimate, selection can be made profitable with a better polygenic score, which would require _n_>237,300 using education phenotype data (and much less using fluid intelligencemeasures)
* selection can be made more effective by selecting on multiple phenotype traits: considering an example using 7 traits (IQ/height/BMI/diabetes/ADHD/bipolar/schizophrenia), there is a factor gain over IQ alone; the outperformance of multiple selection remains after adjusting for genetic correlations & polygenic scores and using a broader set of 16 traits. ">Embryo selection for intelligence * When Should I Check The Mail? * reinforcement learning can do harm when they take wrong actions, especially superintelligent Agent AIs. One solution would be to eliminate their agency by not giving AIs the ability to take actions, confining them to purely informational or inferential tasks such as classification or prediction (Tool AIs), and have all actions be approved & executed by humans, giving equivalently superintelligent results without the risk. I argue that this is not an effective solution for two major reasons. First, because Agent AIs will by definition be better at _actions_ than Tool AIs, giving an economic advantage. Secondly, because Agent AIs will be better at _inference & learning_ than Tool AIs, and this is inherently due to their greater agency: the same algorithms which learn how to perform actions can be used to select important datapoints to learn inference over, how long to learn, how to more efficiently execute inference, how to design themselves, how to optimize hyperparameters, how to make use of external resources such as long-term memories or external software or large databases or the Internet, and how best to acquire new data. All of these actions will result in Agent AIs more intelligent than Tool AIs, in addition to their greater economic competitiveness. Thus, Tool AIs will be inferior to Agent AIs in both actions and intelligence, implying use of Tool AIs is a even more highly unstable equilibrium than previously argued, as users of Agent AIs will be able to outcompete them on two dimensions (and not just one). ">Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs * Complexity no Bar to AI * struggled for years to generate decent-quality anime faces, despite their great success with photographic imagery such as real human faces. The task has now been effectively solved, for anime faces as well as many other domains, by the development of a new generative adversarial network, _StyleGAN_, whose source code was released in February 2019. I show off my StyleGAN anime faces & videos, provide downloads, provide the ‘missing manual’ & explain how I trained them based on Danbooru2017/2018 with source code for the data preprocessing, document installation & configuration &training tricks.
For application, I document various scripts for generating images & videos, briefly describe the website “This Waifu Does Not Exist” I set up as a public demo, discuss how the trained models can be used for transfer learning such as generating high-quality faces of anime characters with small datasets (eg Holo or Asuka Souryuu Langley), and touch on more advanced StyleGAN applications like encoders & controllable generation. The appendix gives samples of my failures with earlier GANs for anime face generation, and I provide samples & model from a relatively large-scale BigGAN training run suggesting that BigGAN may be the next step forward to generating full-scale anime images. A minute of reading could save an hour of debugging! ">Making Anime Faces w/Neural Nets * _Death Note_ script authenticity * The Existential Risk of Math Errors * Iodine & Adult IQ meta-analysis * The Melancholy of Kyon * In Defense of Wikipedia Inclusionism * Bitcoin is Worse is Better * Are Sunk Costs Fallacies?By topic:
STATISTICS
* Why Correlation Usually ≠ Causation * When Does The Mail Come? Decision Analysis * 350 Google products launched before March 2013, looking for variables predictive of mortality (web hits, service vs software, commercial vs free, FLOSS, social networking, and internal vs acquired). Shutdowns are unevenly distributed over the calendar year or Google’s history. I use logistic regression & survival analysis (which can deal with right-censorship) to model the risk of shutdown over time and examine correlates. The logistic regression indicates socialness, acquisitions, and lack of web hits predict being shut down, but the results may not be right. The survival analysis finds a median lifespan of 2824 days with a roughly Type III survival curve (high early-life mortality); a Cox regression finds similar results as the logistic - socialness, free, acquisition, and long life predict lower mortality. Using the best model, I make predictions about probability of shutdown of the most risky and least risky services in the next 5 years (up to March 2018). (All data & R source code is provided.) ">Predicting Google service closures * Predicting & Prediction Markets * Banner Ads Considered Harmful (Here) * How To Critique Research? * Judging the 2012 election forecasters * Candy Japan’s new-box A/B test * Interactively Resorting Lists * mid-2011 where the results fall dramatically. I speculate about the cause and implications for Alerts’s future. ">Google Alerts Over Time * order statistic of the mean/average/expectation of the maximum of a draw of _n_ samples from a normal distribution has no exact formula, unfortunately, and is generally not built into any programming language’s libraries. I implement & compare some of the approaches to estimating this order statistic in the R programming language, for both the maximum and the general order statistic. The overall best approach is to calculate the exact order statistics for the _n_ range of interest using numerical integration via lmomco and cache them in a lookup table, rescaling the mean/SD as necessary for arbitrary normal distributions; next best is a polynomial regression approximation; finally, the Elfving correction to the Blom 1958 approximation is fast, easily implemented, and accurate for reasonably large _n_ suchas _n_>100.
">Expected Maximum of Gaussians * Everything Is Correlated * Multi-Stage Selection JS Demo * experiment design /power analysis. ">Power of Twins: the Milk Experiment * base-rate neglect , and regression to the mean. First, their standards fall prey to a base-rate fallacy and even extreme predictive value of IQ would not predict 1 or more Nobel prizes because Nobel prize odds are measured at 1 in millions, and with a small total sample size of a few hundred, it is highly likely that there would simply be no Nobels. Secondly, and more seriously, the lack of accomplishment is inherent and unavoidable as it is driven by the regression to the mean caused by the relatively low correlation of early childhood with adult IQs—which means their sample is far less elite as adults than they believe. Using early-childhood/adult IQ correlations, regression to the mean implies that HCES students will fall from a mean of 157 IQ in kindergarten (when selected) to somewhere around 133 as adults (and possibly lower). Further demonstrating the role of regression to the mean, in contrast, HCES’s associated high-IQ/gifted-and-talented high school, Hunter High, which has access to the adolescents’ more predictive IQ scores, has much higher achievement in proportion to its lesser regression to the mean (despite dilution by Hunter elementary students being grandfathered in). This unavoidable statistical fact undermines the main rationale of HCES: extremely high-IQ adults cannot be accurately selected as kindergartners on the basis of a simple test. This greater-regression problem can be lessened by the use of additional variables in admissions, such as parental IQs or high-quality genetic polygenic scores; unfortunately, these are either politically unacceptable or dependent on future scientific advances. This suggests that such elementary schools may not be a good use of resources and HCES students should not be assigned scarce magnet high school slots. ">_Genius Revisited_: High-IQ School Flaws * _Methods of Rationality_ updates prompts musing about whether readership is increasing enough & what statistics one would use; I write code to download FF.net reviews, clean it, parse it, load into R, summarize the data & depict it graphically, run linear regression on a subset & all reviews, note the poor fit, develop a quadratic fit instead, and use it to predict future review quantities. Then, I run a similar analysis on a competing fanfiction to find out when they will have equal total review-counts. A try at logarithmic fits fails; fitting a linear model to the previous 100 days of _MoR_ and the competitor works much better, and they predict a convergencein <5 years.
A survival analysis finds no major anomalies in reviewer lifetimes, but an apparent increase in mortality for reviewers who started reviewing with later chapters, consistent with (but far from proving) the original theory that the later chapters’ delays are havingnegative effects.
">Modeling fiction review rates * Modeling fiction drop rates * LW Effective Altruism donations,2013–2014
* Miscellaneous
CRYPTO/BITCOIN
* Time-lock encryption * Bitcoin is Worse is Better * A Silk Road 1 Guide * Silk Road 1 , recording their openings/closing and relevant characteristics. A survival analysis indicates the markets follow a Type TODO lifespan, with a median life of TODO months. Risk factors include TODO. With the best model, I generate estimates for the currently-operating markets. ">DNM census/lifetimes * usage , lifetimes/characteristics, & legal riskiness; these scrapes covered vendor pages, feedback, images, etc. In addition, I made or obtained copies of as many other datasets & documents related to the DNMs as I could. This uniquely comprehensive collection is now publicly released as a 50GB (~1.6TB uncompressed) collection covering 89 DNMs & 37+ related forums, representing <4,438 mirrors, and is available forany research.
This page documents the download, contents, interpretation, and technical methods behind the scrapes. ">DNM archives (2013–2015) * DNM arrests (2011–2015) * Timestamping w/BitcoinAI
*
Complexity no Bar to AI*
Autonomous AI systems (Agent AIs) trained using reinforcement learning can do harm when they take wrong actions, especially superintelligent Agent AIs. One solution would be to eliminate their agency by not giving AIs the ability to take actions, confining them to purely informational or inferential tasks such as classification or prediction (Tool AIs), and have all actions be approved & executed by humans, giving equivalently superintelligent results without therisk.
I argue that this is not an effective solution for two major reasons. First, because Agent AIs will by definition be better at _actions_ than Tool AIs, giving an economic advantage. Secondly, because Agent AIs will be better at _inference & learning_ than Tool AIs, and this is inherently due to their greater agency: the same algorithms which learn how to perform actions can be used to select important datapoints to learn inference over, how long to learn, how to more efficiently execute inference, how to design themselves, how to optimize hyperparameters, how to make use of external resources such as long-term memories or external software or large databases or the Internet, and how best to acquire new data. All of these actions will result in Agent AIs more intelligent than Tool AIs, in addition to their greater economic competitiveness. Thus, Tool AIs will be inferior to Agent AIs in both actions and intelligence, implying use of Tool AIs is a even more highly unstable equilibrium than previously argued, as users of Agent AIs will be able to outcompete them on two dimensions (and not just one). ">Tool AIs Want To Be Agent AIs*
Danbooru2019 Anime Image Dataset * struggled for years to generate decent-quality anime faces, despite their great success with photographic imagery such as real human faces. The task has now been effectively solved, for anime faces as well as many other domains, by the development of a new generative adversarial network, _StyleGAN_, whose source code was released in February 2019. I show off my StyleGAN anime faces & videos, provide downloads, provide the ‘missing manual’ & explain how I trained them based on Danbooru2017/2018/2019 with source code for the data preprocessing, document installation & configuration &training tricks.
For application, I document various scripts for generating images & videos, briefly describe the website “This Waifu Does Not Exist” I set up as a public demo, discuss how the trained models can be used for transfer learning such as generating high-quality faces of anime characters with small datasets (eg Holo or Asuka Souryuu Langley), and touch on more advanced StyleGAN applications like encoders & controllable generation. The appendix gives samples of my failures with earlier GANs for anime face generation, and I provide samples & model from a relatively large-scale BigGAN training run suggesting that BigGAN may be the next step forward to generating full-scale anime images. A minute of reading could save an hour of debugging! ">Making Anime Faces with Neural Nets*
Kelly Coin-Flip Game: Solutions*
Evolution as Backstop for Learning*
The Neural Net Tank Urban Legend*
Neural net poems: RNNs/GPT-2s*
ThisWaifuDoesNotExist.net (TWDNE) is a static website which uses JS to display random anime faces generated by StyleGAN neural networks, along with GPT-2-generated 'anime plot summaries'. A screenshot of “This Waifu Does Not Exist” (TWDNE) showing a random StyleGAN-generated anime face and a random GPT-2-117M text sample conditioned on anime keywords/phrases.">This Waifu Does Not Exist (Generating high-quality anime faces has long been a task neural networks struggled with. The invention of StyleGAN in 2018 has effectively solved this task and I have trained a StyleGAN model which can generate high-quality anime faces at 512px resolution. To show off the recent progress, I made a website, “This Waifu Does Not Exist” for displaying random StyleGAN faces. TWDNE displays a different neural-net-generated face & plot summary every 15s. The site was popular and went viral online, especially in China. TWDNE faces have been used as screensavers, user avatars, character art for game packs or online games, uploaded to Pixiv, and used in a research paper (Noguchi & Harada 2019). TWDNE results also helped inspired Sizigi Studio’s online interactive waifu GAN, Waifu Labs, which generates even better anime faces than my StyleGAN results.">details)
*
GPT-2 Folk Music
*
Preference learning GPT-2 music*
Hyperbolic Time Chambers as Brain EmsCS
* Haskell Summer of Code* Archiving URLs
* The 3 Grenades
* Surprisingly Turing-Complete* Archiving GitHub
* Simulation inferences* Choosing Software
* Elegant Run Length Encoding * Wikipedia RSS Archive Bot for a demonstration of how one could write a RSS-oriented daemon. These Haskell scripts are (hopefully) obsoleted by later IA/WMF initiatives dealing with linkrot. For a more general approach suitable for personal use, see the writeup of archiver-bot in Archiving URLs. ">Wikipedia Archive Bot* WP RSS bot
* Resilient Haskell Software * Evolutionary Licenses * _SICP_ Introduction (ch1.1, 1.2 , 1.3
)
* Internet WiFi improvement * A/B testing CSS & HTMLPSYCHOLOGY
* Spaced Repetition & Learning * Dual N-Back FAQ (n-back intervention, finding (over all studies) a net gain (medium-sized) on the post-training IQ tests. The size of this increase on IQ test score correlates highly with the methodological concern of whether a study used active or passive control groups. This indicates that the medium effect size is due to methodological problems and that n-back training does not increase subjects’ underlying fluid intelligence but the gains are due to the motivational effect of passive control groups (who did not train on anything) not trying as hard as the n-back-trained experimental groups on the post-tests. The remaining studies using active control groups find a small positive effect (but this may be due to matrix-test-specific training, undetected publication bias, smaller motivational effects, etc.) I also investigate several other n-back claims, criticisms, and indicators of bias, finding: * payment reducing performance claim: possible * dose-response relationship of n-back training time & IQ gainsclaim: not found
* kind of n-back matters: not found * publication bias criticism: not found * speeding of IQ tests criticism: not found">meta-analysis)
* Shulman & Bostrom 2014 /Hsu 2014, I consider the case of human intelligence using SNP-based genetic prediction, finding: * a meta-analysis of GCTA results indicates that SNPs can explain >33% of variance in current intelligence scores, and >44% with better-quality phenotype testing * this sets an upper bound on the effectiveness of selection: a gain of 9 IQ points when selecting the top embryo out of 10 * the best 2016 polygenic score could achieve a gain of ~3 IQ points when selecting out of 10 * the marginal cost of embryo selection (assuming IVF is already being done) is modest, at $1500 + $200 per embryo, with the sequencing cost projected to drop rapidly * a model of the IVF process, incorporating number of extracted eggs, losses to abnormalities & vitrification & failed implantation & miscarriages from 2 real IVF patient populations, estimates feasible gains of 0.39 & 0.68 IQ points * embryo selection is currently unprofitable (mean: -$358) in the USA under the lowest estimate of the value of an IQ point, but profitable under the highest (mean: $6230). The main constraints on selection profitability is the polygenic score; under the highest value, the NPV EVPI of a perfect SNP predictor is $24b and the EVSI per education/SNPsample is $71k
* under the worst-case estimate, selection can be made profitable with a better polygenic score, which would require _n_>237,300 using education phenotype data (and much less using fluid intelligencemeasures)
* selection can be made more effective by selecting on multiple phenotype traits: considering an example using 7 traits (IQ/height/BMI/diabetes/ADHD/bipolar/schizophrenia), there is a factor gain over IQ alone; the outperformance of multiple selection remains after adjusting for genetic correlations & polygenic scores and using a broader set of 16 traits. ">Embryo selection for intelligence* Catnip:
* Response rate meta-analysis * catnip response rats in domestic cats , yielding an meta-analytic average of ~23, the available data suggests heterogeneity from cross-country differences in rates (possibly for genetic reasons) but is insufficient to definitively demonstrate the existence of or estimate those differences (particularly a possible extremely high catnip response rate in Japan). I use Google Surveys August-September 2017 to conduct a brief 1-question online survey of a proportional population sample of 9 countries about cat ownership & catnip use, specifically: Canada, the USA, UK, Japan, Germany, Brazil, Spain, Australia, & Mexico. in total, I surveyed _n_=31,471 people, of whom _n_=9,087 are cat owners, of whom _n_=4,402 report having used catnip on their cat, and of whom _n_=2996 report acatnip response.
The survey yields catnip response rates of Canada (82%), USA (79%), UK (74%), Japan (71%), Germany (57%), Brazil (56%), Spain (54%), Australia (53%), and Mexico (52%). The differences are substantial and of high posterior probability, supporting the existence of large cross-country differences. In additional analysis, the other conditional probabilities of cat ownership and trying catnip with a cat appear to correlate with catnip response rates; this intercorrelation suggests a “cat factor” of some sort influencing responses, although what causal relationship there might be between proportion of cat owners and proportion of catnip-responder cats isunclear.
An additional survey of a convenience sample of primarily US Internet users about catnip is reported, although the improbable catnip response rates compared to the population survey suggest the respondents are either highly unrepresentative or the questions causeddemand bias.
">Surveys
* Are Sunk Costs Fallacies? * Iodine/IQ meta-analysis* SMPY Bibliography
* Conscientiousness & Online Schools* Robert Bakewell .
Why did it take thousands of years to begin developing useful animal breeding techniques, a topic of interest to almost all farmers everywhere, a field which has no prerequisites such as advanced mathematics or special chemicals or mechanical tools, and seemingly requires only close observation and patience? This question can be asked of many innovations early in the Industrial Revolution, such asthe flying shuttle.
Some veins in economics history and sociology suggest that at least one ingredient is an _improving attitude_: a detached outsider’s attitude which asks whether there is any way to optimize something, in defiance of ‘the wisdom of tradition’, and looks for improvements. A relevant English example is the English Royal Society of Arts, founded not too distant in time from Bakewell, specifically to spur competition and imitation and new inventions. Psychological barriers may be as important as anything like per capita wealth or peace ininnovation.
">Robert Bakewell & Inventing Breeding * reasonably doable with current & future PGSes. ">Dog Cloning For Special Forces * A list of some questions which are not necessarily important, but do puzzle me or where I find existing ‘answers’ to be unsatisfying, categorized by subject (along the lines of Patrick Collison’s list & Alex Guzey; see also my list ofproject ideas).
">Open Questions
* What is the morning-writing effect? * Cat Psychology & Domestication: Are We Good Owners? * The Replication Crisis * Hydrocephalus & IQ * On Having Enough SocksQS
*
Sleep:
* Melatonin
* Modafinil
* single-subject design self-experiments using a Zeo. A Zeo records sleep via EEG; I have made many measurements and performed many experiments. This is what I have learned so far: * the Zeo headband is wearable long-term * melatonin improves my sleep * one-legged standing does little * Vitamin D at night damages my sleep & Vitamin D in morning doesnot affect my sleep
* potassium (over the day but not so much the morning) damages my sleep and does not improve my mood/productivity * small quantities of alcohol appear to make little difference to mysleep quality
* I may be better off changing my sleep timing by waking up somewhat earlier & going to bed somewhat earlier * lithium orotate does not affect my sleep * Redshift causes me to go to bed earlier * ZMA: inconclusive results slightly suggestive of benefits ">Sleep self-experiments:* Caffeine
* Potassium
* Redshift/f.lux
* Vitamin D
* ZMA
* Wooden pillows
* Zeo -recorded sleep datasets, a finding of a monthly circadian rhythm affecting sleep in a small sleep lab. I find only small non-statistically-significant correlations, despite beingwell-powered.
">Lunar circadian rhythms*
Nootropics experiments*
LSD microdosing
*
Creatine/cognition meta-analysis*
Lithium in ground-water review*
Spirulina allergy experiment*
Bitter melon blood-glucose experiment*
Meditation & math errors*
Weather/mood
*
Treadmill memory/typing experiment*
Bacopa quasi-experimentPRACTICAL
* Commoditize Your Complement * Evolutionary Heuristics for Drugs * Internet Search Tips * moths to a flame : all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant, who then wins everything, at which point everyone can see that the optimal time is past. All major success stories overshadow their long list of predecessors who did the same thing, but got unlucky. So, ideas can be divided into the overly-optimistic & likely doomed, or the _fait accompli_. On an individual level, ideas are worthless because so many others have them too—‘multiple invention’ is the rule, and notthe exception.
This overall problem falls under the reinforcement learning paradigm, and successful approaches are analogous to Thompson sampling/posterior sampling: even an informed strategy can’t reliably beat random exploration which gradually shifts towards successful areas while continuing to take occasional long shots. Since people tend to systematically over-exploit, how is this implemented? Apparently by individuals acting suboptimally on the personal level, but optimally on societal level by serving as random exploration. A major benefit of R&D, then, is in laying fallow until the ‘ripe time’ when they can be immediately exploited in previously-unpredictable ways; applied R&D or VC strategies should focus on maintaining diversity of investments, while continuing to flexibly revisit previous failures which forecasts indicate may have reached ‘ripe time’. This balances overall exploitation & exploration to progress as fast as possible, showing the usefulness of technological forecasting on a global level despite its uselessness toindividuals.
">Timing Technology: Media Lab Lessons * Girl Scouts & Good Governance * Plastination vs Cryonics * Charity is not about helping* Console Insurance
* Life contracts
* Rubrication Design Examples * Ordinary Life ImprovementsPOLITICS
* The Melancholy of Subculture Society * Terrorism is not about Terror * Terrorism is not Effective * Brain emulation requires enormous computing power; enormous computing power requires further progression of Moore’s law; further Moore’s law relies on large-scale production of cheap processors in ever more-advanced chip fabs; cutting-edge chip fabs are both expensive and vulnerable to state actors (but _not_ non-state actors such as terrorists). Therefore: the advent of brain emulation can be delayed by global regulation of chipfabs.
">Moore’s law & chip fabs * Littlewood's Law & the Global Media* Colder Wars
PHILOSOPHY
* Existential Risks & Math Errors * On Powerful Natural Languages * Culture is not about Esthetics * The Narrowing Circle * modus ponens may be interpreted in several ways; a major one is to interpret it as a kind of _reductio ad absurdum_, where by ‘proving’ a conclusion believed to be false, one might instead take it as a modus tollens which proves that one of the _premises_ is false. This “Moorean shift” is aphorized as the snowclone, “One man’s modus ponens is another man’s modus tollens”. The Moorean shift is a powerful counter-argument which has been deployed against many skeptical & metaphysical claims in philosophy, where often the conclusion is extremely unlikely and little evidence can be provided for the premises used in the proofs; and it is relevant to many other debates, particularly methodologicalones.
">One Man's Modus Ponens * Newton's System of the World & Comets * On Subscripting Citations * Ontological pantheism * An Abortion Dialogue* On Disrespect
* Justifications
* Against The Miletians* Copyright
* Immoral Books
* Isomorphisms
* Moral Sperm Donation * Zen & the Art of Bicycle MaintenanceFICTION
*
Prose:
* “The Erl King” * “The Ones Who Walk Towards Acre” * “Missing Cities”* “Men of Iron”
* “Gilles Goullet, Author of _Blindsight_” * “How the Panther got Black” * “The Palace of Wonders” * “The Gift of the Amygdali”* _Cloud Nine_
* “The Last Muezzin” * _Dinosaur Comics_ comics * “The Buddha’s Wheel”*
Verse:
* Poems
* ‘Brave poem’
* ‘Dying Outside’ * Poems on the theme of _Genshiken_* ‘Safecracker’
* ‘Hybrid Rainbow’*
Criticism:
* “Story Of Your Life” Is Not Time-Travel * Genetics & Eugenics in Herbert's _Dune_ * On Wolfe’s “Suzanne Delage” * “Scanners Live in Vain” as realistic SF* The Mulberry Tree
* The Snowbanks of TimeANIME
* The Melancholy of Kyon* _Death Note_:
* Death Note _ and Light Yagami; if you are unfamiliar with it, see my _Death Note_ Ending essay or consult Wikipedia or read the DN rules.) ">L, Anonymity & Eluding Entropy * Who Wrote The Movie?* On The Ending
* _My Little Pony_: Immanetizing The Equestrian * Hafu Gender Ratios in Anime * _Aria_’s past, present, & future* _FMP_ parody
* “Komm Susser Tod”DOCS
* _Radiance_ (annotatedScholz novel)
* _Metamagical Themas_: “Sanity and Survival”(Hofstadter)
* “The Iron Law Of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules” is a classic review paper by American “sociologist Peter Rossi, a dedicated progressive and the nation’s leading expert on social program evaluation from the 1960s through the 1980s”; it discusses the difficulties of creating a useful social program, and proposed some aphoristic summary rules, including most famously: > > > - The Iron law: “The expected value of any net impact assessment of any large scale social program is zero” > > - the Stainless Steel law: “the better designed the impact assessment of a social program, the more likely is the resulting estimate of net impact to be zero.” > > It expands an earlier paper by Rossi (“Issues in the evaluation of human services delivery”, Rossi 1978), where he coined the first,“Iron Law”.
">“The Iron Law of Evaluation And Other Metallic Rules” (Rossi) * John Nash on cryptography & P=NP (1955) * “Ups & Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search” * Wei Dai/Satoshi Nakamoto 2009 Bitcoin emails * Dept. Of Technology about bitcoin and its mysterious creator. There are lots of ways to make money: You can earn it, find it, counterfeit it, steal it. Or, if you’re Satoshi Nakamoto, you can invent it. That’s what he did on the evening of January 3, 2009, when he pressed a button on his keyboard and created a new currency called Bitcoin. It was all bit, and no coin. There was no paper, copper, or silver-just thirty-one thousand lines of code and an announcement on the Internet. Nakamoto wanted to create a currency immune to the predations of bankers and politicians. The currency was controlled entirely by software. Every ten minutes or so, coins would be distributed through a process that resembled a lottery. This way, the bitcoin software would release a total of twenty-one million bitcoins, most all of them over the next twenty years. Interest in Nakamoto’s invention built steadily. More and more people dedicated their computers to the lottery, and forty-four exchanges popped up, allowing anyone with bitcoins to trade them for dollars, euros, or other currencies. At first, a single bitcoin was valued at less than a penny. But merchants gradually began to accept bitcoin, and at the end of 2010 the value began to appreciate rapidly. By June of 2011, a bitcoin was worth more than twenty-nine dollars. Market gyrations followed, and by September the exchange rate had fallen to five dollars. Still, with more than seven million bitcoins in circulation, Nakamoto had created thirty-five million dollars of value. And yet Nakamoto was a cipher. There was no trace of any coder with that name before the début of bitcoin. He used an e-mail address and Web site that were untraceable. In 2009 and 2010, he wrote hundreds of posts in flawless English, invited other software developers to help him improve the code. Then, in April, 2011, he sent a note to a developer saying that he had “moved on to other things.” He has not been heard from since. Tells about failed attempts to hack the bitcoin encryption code. Writer tries to deduce Nakamoto’s true identity from clues in his posts and his code. Describes the Crypto 2011 conference of cryptographers, where the writer went looking for Nakamoto. Writer speaks with two possible candidates, Michael Clear and Vili Lehdonvirta, both of whom deny that they are Nakamoto. Also tells about Kevin Groce, who runs a bitcoin-mining operation in Kentucky. Over the summer, hackers targeted bitcoin, and though they were unable to break Nakamoto’s code, they were able to disrupt the exchanges and destroy Web sites that helped users store bitcoins. The number of transactions decreased and the exchange rate plummeted. Commentators predicted the end of the currency. In September, however, volume began to increase again, and the price stabilized, at least temporarily. ">“The Crypto-Currency: Bitcoin & its mysterious inventor” * “Shiny balls of Mud” (Gibson) * “Nor the Summers as Golden: Writing Multivolume Works”(Wolfe)
* “Loyal to the Group of Seventeen's Story—The Just Man”(Wolfe)
* “The Sword of Achilles” (Asimov) * _Drugs 2.0: The Web Revolution That’s Changing How the World Gets High_ , Mike Power (2 May 2013); it is principally on the topic of Bitcoin, Tor, and Silk Road 1. ">_Drugs 2.0_: “Your Crack’s in the Post” (Mike Power) * 2014 Jed McCaleb MtGox interview * Research Bounties On DocumentsANIME DOCS
* _Evangelion_ sources anthology * _The Notenki Memoirs_(Takeda)
* _NGE 2.0 Complete Records Collection (CRC)_ * “Conscience of the Otaking”(Okada)
* “Gainax translator Michael House interview” * 1996 Hideaki Anno interview * 1997 Hideaki Anno interview(French
)
* “Talk About RahXephon” * “Special Talk: Yutaka Izubuchi x Hideaki Anno” * “Otaku Talk” (Okada, Morikawa etc) * “Earth in My Window” (Murakami) * _Utena_ 2011 Boxset Commentary * “On The Battlefield of ‘Superflat’”(Sawaragi)
* “Ero-Anime: Manga Comes Alive”(Sarrazin)
WIKIPEDIA
* In Defense Of Inclusionism * Wikipedia & Darkside Editing * Wikipedia & Other Wikis * Wikipedia & YouTube* Wikipedia & Knol
* My Wikipedia articlesPERSONAL
* About / Links / changelog ), collations of links or discussions from my subreddit, and book/movie reviews.)">newsletter archives* Notes
* Epigrams
* Book reviews/ratings* Tea reviews /Mead
* Blackmail attemptsAutoLightDark
Details
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