CSINVESTING
The above post is an excellent tutorial and case study on riding a volatile, cyclical bull market in Uranium Company, Cameco (and others) from 2000 when CCJ traded about $7 to $8 until mid-2007 or about $40 to $45 (you never get the exact high). That is THE MC WAY - CSINVESTING THE MCKINSEY WAY Using the Techniques of the World’s Top Strategic Consultants to Help You and Your Business ETHAN M. RASIEL M C G RAW-HILL NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON, D.C. AUCKLAND BOGOTÁ BUFFETT: HOW INFLATION SWINDLES THE EQUITY INVESTOR Buffett: How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor LESSONS ON READING A 13-F With the stock at $64.36, each option costs a mere 12 cents, so the value of this position would be $1,200 – yet on a 13F filing, it would appear as a $6.436 million position! Thus, the seven call option positions listed in our 13F are nowhere close to being worth the $104.1 million they are listed at. Specifically, our Berkshire call option
HOW TO READ A FINANCIAL REPORT Page vi very successful. Cash flow is underscored throughout the book; this is the hallmark of the book, and what distinguishes it from other books on analyzing financial statements. THE CARE AND TRAINING OF YOUR KOCK Item 1. Your new rock is a very sensitive pet and may be slightly traumatized from all the handling and shipping required in bringing the two of you together. COMMON ERRORS IN DCF MODELS Michael J. Mauboussin mmauboussin@lmfunds.com LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT March 16, 2006 Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot FFIRS.INDD II 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM The Investment Checklist THE ART OF IN- DEPTH RESEARCH Michael Shearn John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ffirs.indd iii 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM START-UP NOTES FROM PETER THIEL’S CLASS BLAKE MASTERS Start-Up Notes from Peter Thiel’s Class 1 | P a g e Blake Masters "Your mind is software. Program it. Your body is a shell. Change it. Death is a disease.
CSINVESTING
The above post is an excellent tutorial and case study on riding a volatile, cyclical bull market in Uranium Company, Cameco (and others) from 2000 when CCJ traded about $7 to $8 until mid-2007 or about $40 to $45 (you never get the exact high). That is THE MC WAY - CSINVESTING THE MCKINSEY WAY Using the Techniques of the World’s Top Strategic Consultants to Help You and Your Business ETHAN M. RASIEL M C G RAW-HILL NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON, D.C. AUCKLAND BOGOTÁ BUFFETT: HOW INFLATION SWINDLES THE EQUITY INVESTOR Buffett: How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor LESSONS ON READING A 13-F With the stock at $64.36, each option costs a mere 12 cents, so the value of this position would be $1,200 – yet on a 13F filing, it would appear as a $6.436 million position! Thus, the seven call option positions listed in our 13F are nowhere close to being worth the $104.1 million they are listed at. Specifically, our Berkshire call option
HOW TO READ A FINANCIAL REPORT Page vi very successful. Cash flow is underscored throughout the book; this is the hallmark of the book, and what distinguishes it from other books on analyzing financial statements. THE CARE AND TRAINING OF YOUR KOCK Item 1. Your new rock is a very sensitive pet and may be slightly traumatized from all the handling and shipping required in bringing the two of you together. COMMON ERRORS IN DCF MODELS Michael J. Mauboussin mmauboussin@lmfunds.com LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT March 16, 2006 Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? FFIRS.INDD II 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM The Investment Checklist THE ART OF IN- DEPTH RESEARCH Michael Shearn John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ffirs.indd iii 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot START-UP NOTES FROM PETER THIEL’S CLASS BLAKE MASTERS Start-Up Notes from Peter Thiel’s Class 1 | P a g e Blake Masters "Your mind is software. Program it. Your body is a shell. Change it. Death is a disease.
WILLIAM VON MUEFFLING William von Mueffling. One can broadly divide value investing into two camps. The first camp is the Graham & Dodd style which is buying assets at a discount or cash at a discount. The second camp is the Buffett style, which I characterize as buying financial productivity at a dis-count. We fall into the second camp. WHAT’S RIGHT ABOUT RIGHTS What’s Right About Rights To raise additional capital, rights offerings have historically been a fair and efficient method. This method is widely used in England. HOW TO READ A FINANCIAL REPORT Page vi very successful. Cash flow is underscored throughout the book; this is the hallmark of the book, and what distinguishes it from other books on analyzing financial statements. MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot FIRM CHARACTERISTICS AND EMPIRICAL FACTOR MODELS: A DATA in the rst and the second halves of the 1971-2011 sample period. Likewise, using a two-way sort on rm stock market capitalization (size) and characteristics to construct model return GEICO: THE “GROWTH COMPANY” THAT MADE THE “VALUE INVESTING GEICO: The “Growth Company” that made the “Value Investing” careers of both Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett In 1948, we made our GEICO investment and from then on, MEASURING THE MOAT
July 22, 2013 Measuring the Moat 5 Exhibit 1: A Firm’s Competitive Life Cycle Source: Credit Suisse HOLT®. Reversion to the mean says that an outcome that is far from average will be followed by an outcome that has
THERE'S SOMETHING ABOUT CISCO CISCO HAS AN EXPENSIVE STOCK The Change in Narrative in analyzing Cisco Page 1 There's Something About Cisco Cisco has an expensive stock and agile competitors. But this
FFIRS.INDD IV 2/1/08 12:55:38 PM W HEN I STARTED Morningstar in 1984, my goal was to help individuals invest in mutual funds. Back then, a few financial publications carried performance data, and that was about it. By providing institutional-quality information at afford- THE MAGIC OF ROIC
3 iRobot and Chipotle are Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations. Home Depot is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Chipotle (B shares) is also a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick. All of these market-beating newsletters are available for a free 30-day trial. CSINVESTING
The above post is an excellent tutorial and case study on riding a volatile, cyclical bull market in Uranium Company, Cameco (and others) from 2000 when CCJ traded about $7 to $8 until mid-2007 or about $40 to $45 (you never get the exact high). That is THE MC WAY - CSINVESTING THE MCKINSEY WAY Using the Techniques of the World’s Top Strategic Consultants to Help You and Your Business ETHAN M. RASIEL M C G RAW-HILL NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON, D.C. AUCKLAND BOGOTÁ BUFFETT: HOW INFLATION SWINDLES THE EQUITY INVESTOR Buffett: How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor LESSONS ON READING A 13-F With the stock at $64.36, each option costs a mere 12 cents, so the value of this position would be $1,200 – yet on a 13F filing, it would appear as a $6.436 million position! Thus, the seven call option positions listed in our 13F are nowhere close to being worth the $104.1 million they are listed at. Specifically, our Berkshire call option
HOW TO READ A FINANCIAL REPORT Page vi very successful. Cash flow is underscored throughout the book; this is the hallmark of the book, and what distinguishes it from other books on analyzing financial statements. THE CARE AND TRAINING OF YOUR KOCK Item 1. Your new rock is a very sensitive pet and may be slightly traumatized from all the handling and shipping required in bringing the two of you together. COMMON ERRORS IN DCF MODELS Michael J. Mauboussin mmauboussin@lmfunds.com LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT March 16, 2006 Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot FFIRS.INDD II 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM The Investment Checklist THE ART OF IN- DEPTH RESEARCH Michael Shearn John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ffirs.indd iii 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM START-UP NOTES FROM PETER THIEL’S CLASS BLAKE MASTERS Start-Up Notes from Peter Thiel’s Class 1 | P a g e Blake Masters "Your mind is software. Program it. Your body is a shell. Change it. Death is a disease.
CSINVESTING
The above post is an excellent tutorial and case study on riding a volatile, cyclical bull market in Uranium Company, Cameco (and others) from 2000 when CCJ traded about $7 to $8 until mid-2007 or about $40 to $45 (you never get the exact high). That is THE MC WAY - CSINVESTING THE MCKINSEY WAY Using the Techniques of the World’s Top Strategic Consultants to Help You and Your Business ETHAN M. RASIEL M C G RAW-HILL NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON, D.C. AUCKLAND BOGOTÁ BUFFETT: HOW INFLATION SWINDLES THE EQUITY INVESTOR Buffett: How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor LESSONS ON READING A 13-F With the stock at $64.36, each option costs a mere 12 cents, so the value of this position would be $1,200 – yet on a 13F filing, it would appear as a $6.436 million position! Thus, the seven call option positions listed in our 13F are nowhere close to being worth the $104.1 million they are listed at. Specifically, our Berkshire call option
HOW TO READ A FINANCIAL REPORT Page vi very successful. Cash flow is underscored throughout the book; this is the hallmark of the book, and what distinguishes it from other books on analyzing financial statements. THE CARE AND TRAINING OF YOUR KOCK Item 1. Your new rock is a very sensitive pet and may be slightly traumatized from all the handling and shipping required in bringing the two of you together. COMMON ERRORS IN DCF MODELS Michael J. Mauboussin mmauboussin@lmfunds.com LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT March 16, 2006 Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot FFIRS.INDD II 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM The Investment Checklist THE ART OF IN- DEPTH RESEARCH Michael Shearn John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ffirs.indd iii 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM START-UP NOTES FROM PETER THIEL’S CLASS BLAKE MASTERS Start-Up Notes from Peter Thiel’s Class 1 | P a g e Blake Masters "Your mind is software. Program it. Your body is a shell. Change it. Death is a disease.
WILLIAM VON MUEFFLING William von Mueffling. One can broadly divide value investing into two camps. The first camp is the Graham & Dodd style which is buying assets at a discount or cash at a discount. The second camp is the Buffett style, which I characterize as buying financial productivity at a dis-count. We fall into the second camp. WHAT’S RIGHT ABOUT RIGHTS What’s Right About Rights To raise additional capital, rights offerings have historically been a fair and efficient method. This method is widely used in England. HOW TO READ A FINANCIAL REPORT Page vi very successful. Cash flow is underscored throughout the book; this is the hallmark of the book, and what distinguishes it from other books on analyzing financial statements. MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot FIRM CHARACTERISTICS AND EMPIRICAL FACTOR MODELS: A DATA in the rst and the second halves of the 1971-2011 sample period. Likewise, using a two-way sort on rm stock market capitalization (size) and characteristics to construct model return GEICO: THE “GROWTH COMPANY” THAT MADE THE “VALUE INVESTING GEICO: The “Growth Company” that made the “Value Investing” careers of both Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett In 1948, we made our GEICO investment and from then on, MEASURING THE MOAT
July 22, 2013 Measuring the Moat 5 Exhibit 1: A Firm’s Competitive Life Cycle Source: Credit Suisse HOLT®. Reversion to the mean says that an outcome that is far from average will be followed by an outcome that has
THERE'S SOMETHING ABOUT CISCO CISCO HAS AN EXPENSIVE STOCK The Change in Narrative in analyzing Cisco Page 1 There's Something About Cisco Cisco has an expensive stock and agile competitors. But this
FFIRS.INDD IV 2/1/08 12:55:38 PM W HEN I STARTED Morningstar in 1984, my goal was to help individuals invest in mutual funds. Back then, a few financial publications carried performance data, and that was about it. By providing institutional-quality information at afford- THE MAGIC OF ROIC
3 iRobot and Chipotle are Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations. Home Depot is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Chipotle (B shares) is also a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick. All of these market-beating newsletters are available for a free 30-day trial. CSINVESTING
The above post is an excellent tutorial and case study on riding a volatile, cyclical bull market in Uranium Company, Cameco (and others) from 2000 when CCJ traded about $7 to $8 until mid-2007 or about $40 to $45 (you never get the exact high). That is BOOKS | CSINVESTING
Book Review: Pitch the Perfect Investment. Pitch the Perfect Investment, by two money managers who have also taught for many years at Columbia University’s Graduate Business School, can stop small caliber bullets or deflect a vicious sword blow with its heavy-gloss 496 color pages. Bad jokes aside, is the book worth the $30+ for its intended
WILLIAM VON MUEFFLING William von Mueffling. One can broadly divide value investing into two camps. The first camp is the Graham & Dodd style which is buying assets at a discount or cash at a discount. The second camp is the Buffett style, which I characterize as buying financial productivity at a dis-count. We fall into the second camp. BUFFETT: HOW INFLATION SWINDLES THE EQUITY INVESTOR Buffett: How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor LESSONS ON READING A 13-F With the stock at $64.36, each option costs a mere 12 cents, so the value of this position would be $1,200 – yet on a 13F filing, it would appear as a $6.436 million position! Thus, the seven call option positions listed in our 13F are nowhere close to being worth the $104.1 million they are listed at. Specifically, our Berkshire call option
COMMON ERRORS IN DCF MODELS Michael J. Mauboussin mmauboussin@lmfunds.com LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT March 16, 2006 Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? FIRM CHARACTERISTICS AND EMPIRICAL FACTOR MODELS: A DATA in the rst and the second halves of the 1971-2011 sample period. Likewise, using a two-way sort on rm stock market capitalization (size) and characteristics to construct model return THE CARE AND TRAINING OF YOUR KOCK Item 1. Your new rock is a very sensitive pet and may be slightly traumatized from all the handling and shipping required in bringing the two of you together. THE MAGIC OF ROIC
3 iRobot and Chipotle are Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations. Home Depot is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Chipotle (B shares) is also a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick. All of these market-beating newsletters are available for a free 30-day trial. ROY LONGSTREET INTERVIEW OF A COMMODITY TRADER Roy Longstreet Interview of a Commodity Trader www.csinvesting.wordpress.com teaching/studying/investing Page 3 Luckily, this didn’t keep up too long. CSINVESTING
The above post is an excellent tutorial and case study on riding a volatile, cyclical bull market in Uranium Company, Cameco (and others) from 2000 when CCJ traded about $7 to $8 until mid-2007 or about $40 to $45 (you never get the exact high). That is BOOKS | CSINVESTING
Book Review: Pitch the Perfect Investment. Pitch the Perfect Investment, by two money managers who have also taught for many years at Columbia University’s Graduate Business School, can stop small caliber bullets or deflect a vicious sword blow with its heavy-gloss 496 color pages. Bad jokes aside, is the book worth the $30+ for its intended
WILLIAM VON MUEFFLING William von Mueffling. One can broadly divide value investing into two camps. The first camp is the Graham & Dodd style which is buying assets at a discount or cash at a discount. The second camp is the Buffett style, which I characterize as buying financial productivity at a dis-count. We fall into the second camp. BUFFETT: HOW INFLATION SWINDLES THE EQUITY INVESTOR Buffett: How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor LESSONS ON READING A 13-F With the stock at $64.36, each option costs a mere 12 cents, so the value of this position would be $1,200 – yet on a 13F filing, it would appear as a $6.436 million position! Thus, the seven call option positions listed in our 13F are nowhere close to being worth the $104.1 million they are listed at. Specifically, our Berkshire call option
COMMON ERRORS IN DCF MODELS Michael J. Mauboussin mmauboussin@lmfunds.com LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT March 16, 2006 Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? FIRM CHARACTERISTICS AND EMPIRICAL FACTOR MODELS: A DATA in the rst and the second halves of the 1971-2011 sample period. Likewise, using a two-way sort on rm stock market capitalization (size) and characteristics to construct model return THE CARE AND TRAINING OF YOUR KOCK Item 1. Your new rock is a very sensitive pet and may be slightly traumatized from all the handling and shipping required in bringing the two of you together. THE MAGIC OF ROIC
3 iRobot and Chipotle are Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations. Home Depot is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Chipotle (B shares) is also a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick. All of these market-beating newsletters are available for a free 30-day trial. ROY LONGSTREET INTERVIEW OF A COMMODITY TRADER Roy Longstreet Interview of a Commodity Trader www.csinvesting.wordpress.com teaching/studying/investing Page 3 Luckily, this didn’t keep up too long. CSINVESTING
The above post is an excellent tutorial and case study on riding a volatile, cyclical bull market in Uranium Company, Cameco (and others) from 2000 when CCJ traded about $7 to $8 until mid-2007 or about $40 to $45 (you never get the exact high). That is BOOKS | CSINVESTING
Pitch the Perfect Investment, by two money managers who have also taught for many years at Columbia University’s Graduate Business School, can stop small caliber bullets or deflect a vicious sword blow with its heavy-gloss 496 color pages. Bad jokes aside, is the book worth the $30+ for its intended audience, young professionals seeking an investment career or can other readers gain THE MC WAY - CSINVESTING THE MCKINSEY WAY Using the Techniques of the World’s Top Strategic Consultants to Help You and Your Business ETHAN M. RASIEL M C G RAW-HILL NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON, D.C. AUCKLAND BOGOTÁ WWW.CSINVESTING.ORG CSINVESTING ANALYST HANDBOOK BOOK www.csinvesting.org CSInvesting Analyst Handbook Book Edited by John Chew Introduction: Simple But Not Easy Page 1 IMPORTANCE OF STRATEGY The Importance of Investment Strategy March 2010 Page 2 Current industry practice is to categorize funds based on the average market-cap and PE (or PS MEASURING THE MOAT
July 22, 2013 Measuring the Moat 5 Exhibit 1: A Firm’s Competitive Life Cycle Source: Credit Suisse HOLT®. Reversion to the mean says that an outcome that is far from average will be followed by an outcome that has
MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot THE MAGIC OF ROIC
3 iRobot and Chipotle are Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations. Home Depot is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Chipotle (B shares) is also a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick. All of these market-beating newsletters are available for a free 30-day trial. DEEP VALUE GROUP AT GOOGLE With about 500 “students” enrolled, emailing individually is difficult because of limits to prevent spam. I started a DEEP VALUE group (in communities) at Google. Click on the link below (if you haven’t already joined –I sent out an invite to all my distribution list this morning). You may be required to have a Gmail account, but that is an easy process. FFIRS.INDD IV 2/1/08 12:55:38 PM W HEN I STARTED Morningstar in 1984, my goal was to help individuals invest in mutual funds. Back then, a few financial publications carried performance data, and that was about it. By providing institutional-quality information at afford- CSINVESTING
The above post is an excellent tutorial and case study on riding a volatile, cyclical bull market in Uranium Company, Cameco (and others) from 2000 when CCJ traded about $7 to $8 until mid-2007 or about $40 to $45 (you never get the exact high). That is THE MC WAY - CSINVESTING THE MCKINSEY WAY Using the Techniques of the World’s Top Strategic Consultants to Help You and Your Business ETHAN M. RASIEL M C G RAW-HILL NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON, D.C. AUCKLAND BOGOTÁ WILLIAM VON MUEFFLING William von Mueffling. One can broadly divide value investing into two camps. The first camp is the Graham & Dodd style which is buying assets at a discount or cash at a discount. The second camp is the Buffett style, which I characterize as buying financial productivity at a dis-count. We fall into the second camp. DO STOCKS OUTPERFORM TREASURY BILLS.FEB18 2 that exceeds the return to holding one-month Treasury Bills over the same horizon, and more than half deliver negative lifetime returns. Individual common stocks tend to have rather short lives. FFIRS.INDD II 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM The Investment Checklist THE ART OF IN- DEPTH RESEARCH Michael Shearn John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ffirs.indd iii 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM THE CARE AND TRAINING OF YOUR KOCK Item 1. Your new rock is a very sensitive pet and may be slightly traumatized from all the handling and shipping required in bringing the two of you together. FIRM CHARACTERISTICS AND EMPIRICAL FACTOR MODELS: A DATA in the rst and the second halves of the 1971-2011 sample period. Likewise, using a two-way sort on rm stock market capitalization (size) and characteristics to construct model return MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot THE MAGIC OF ROIC
3 iRobot and Chipotle are Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations. Home Depot is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Chipotle (B shares) is also a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick. All of these market-beating newsletters are available for a free 30-day trial. COMMON ERRORS IN DCF MODELS Michael J. Mauboussin mmauboussin@lmfunds.com LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT March 16, 2006 Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? CSINVESTING
The above post is an excellent tutorial and case study on riding a volatile, cyclical bull market in Uranium Company, Cameco (and others) from 2000 when CCJ traded about $7 to $8 until mid-2007 or about $40 to $45 (you never get the exact high). That is THE MC WAY - CSINVESTING THE MCKINSEY WAY Using the Techniques of the World’s Top Strategic Consultants to Help You and Your Business ETHAN M. RASIEL M C G RAW-HILL NEW YORK SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON, D.C. AUCKLAND BOGOTÁ WILLIAM VON MUEFFLING William von Mueffling. One can broadly divide value investing into two camps. The first camp is the Graham & Dodd style which is buying assets at a discount or cash at a discount. The second camp is the Buffett style, which I characterize as buying financial productivity at a dis-count. We fall into the second camp. DO STOCKS OUTPERFORM TREASURY BILLS.FEB18 2 that exceeds the return to holding one-month Treasury Bills over the same horizon, and more than half deliver negative lifetime returns. Individual common stocks tend to have rather short lives. FFIRS.INDD II 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM The Investment Checklist THE ART OF IN- DEPTH RESEARCH Michael Shearn John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ffirs.indd iii 9/2/11 10:42:42 AM THE CARE AND TRAINING OF YOUR KOCK Item 1. Your new rock is a very sensitive pet and may be slightly traumatized from all the handling and shipping required in bringing the two of you together. FIRM CHARACTERISTICS AND EMPIRICAL FACTOR MODELS: A DATA in the rst and the second halves of the 1971-2011 sample period. Likewise, using a two-way sort on rm stock market capitalization (size) and characteristics to construct model return MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot THE MAGIC OF ROIC
3 iRobot and Chipotle are Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendations. Home Depot is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Chipotle (B shares) is also a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick. All of these market-beating newsletters are available for a free 30-day trial. COMMON ERRORS IN DCF MODELS Michael J. Mauboussin mmauboussin@lmfunds.com LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT March 16, 2006 Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? WWW.CSINVESTING.ORG CSINVESTING ANALYST HANDBOOK BOOK www.csinvesting.org CSInvesting Analyst Handbook Book Edited by John Chew Introduction: Simple But Not Easy Page 1 LESSONS ON READING A 13-F With the stock at $64.36, each option costs a mere 12 cents, so the value of this position would be $1,200 – yet on a 13F filing, it would appear as a $6.436 million position! Thus, the seven call option positions listed in our 13F are nowhere close to being worth the $104.1 million they are listed at. Specifically, our Berkshire call option
HOW TO READ A FINANCIAL REPORT Page vi very successful. Cash flow is underscored throughout the book; this is the hallmark of the book, and what distinguishes it from other books on analyzing financial statements. MICHAEL BURRY CASE STUDIES Idonotviewfundamentalanalysisasinfallible.Rather,Iseeitasawayofputtingtheoddsonmyside.Iamafi rm! believer!that!it!is!a!dog!eat!dog!worldout!there.!Andwhile!I!donot MEASURING THE MOAT
July 22, 2013 Measuring the Moat 5 Exhibit 1: A Firm’s Competitive Life Cycle Source: Credit Suisse HOLT®. Reversion to the mean says that an outcome that is far from average will be followed by an outcome that has
THE BASE RATE BOOK
September 26, 2016 The Base Rate Book 6 Lovallo, Clarke, and Camerer created a matrix with the columns representing the reference class and the rows
THE FOCUS INVESTING SERIES PART 3: THE MUNGER NETWORK OF FocusInvestor.com Focus Investing Series Part 3: Mental Models Probability theory also helps us manage risk. In his excellent book, Against the Gods, Peter Bernstein states that the “essence of risk management lies in maximizing the areas where we have THE HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD RETURN ADVANTAGE: AN EXAMINATION page 6 TWEEDY, BROWNE FUND INC. High Dividend Yield in the United Kingdom In a paper entitled Stock Market Anomalies: A Reassessment Based on the U.K. Evidence, Journal of Banking and Finance, December 1989, Professor Mario Levis, at The School of Management, University of Bath, United Kingdom, examined a number of anomalies in stock price behavior of
COMMON ERRORS IN DCF MODELS Michael J. Mauboussin mmauboussin@lmfunds.com LEGG MASON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT March 16, 2006 Common Errors in DCF Models Do You Use Economically Sound and Transparent Models? BUFFETT CASE STUDY OF SANBORN MAP Buffett Case Study of Sanborn Map www.csinvesting.wordpress.com studying/teaching/investing Page 4 In late 1958, the son, unhappy with the trend of the business, demanded the top position CSINVESTING
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IS BUFFETT OVER-HYPED? Posted on June 19, 2020 | 2
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Posted in Buffett ,
Investing Gurus ,
Investor Psychology
, Risk
Management
Tagged Humor , Momentum , Retail traders
UNDERSTAND SEMANTICS TO IMPROVE YOUR THINKING Posted on June 13, 2020 | Leave a comment
> Communication – Allness >
Suspend your certainty. Leave a comment
Posted in Free Courses , YOU
Tagged Clarity of thought , irving j. lee
, precise thought
, Semantics
CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE Posted on June 2, 2020 | 1
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Excellent Shareholder Letters presidents-letter-april-2018-final Download
2017-presidents-letter-1 Download
pl_2015
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pl_2015-1
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presidents_letter_2014 Download
presidentletter_2013 Download
presidents-letter-2012 Download
The above letters can teach you how a business owner should communicate
with his or her fellow owners. A lesson in understanding a business. 1 Comment
Posted in Management , Qualitative Aspects
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Management , Search
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Valuation Techniques Tagged Capital allocator , Constellation
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Excellent management THOMAS KAPLAN, AN INVESTOR IN NOVAGOLD Posted on April 29, 2020 | Leave a comment
Mr. Kaplan is the PERFECT INVESTOR to study to improve your investing in deeply cyclical resource investments and to understand gold. As Mr. Kaplan explains in an interview (2017): “Gold is not someone’s liability…. Economically, we are in unchartered waters.” His philosophy is to start with a macro theme (A long-term bull market in gold) and then locate the best asset (Novagold) to leverage that theme. He considers gold the best risk reward of any asset class. Setting aside that gold is the best asset to own during financial crises, gold will be facing a severe supply crunch since no new large deposits over 5 million ounces are being discovered much less developed. Development from discovery to production requires over 20 years.
In addition, more and more foreign jurisdictions like the Philippines or Papua New Guinea are becoming too risky to mine. Mr. Kaplan estimates the equilibrium price to incentivize new discoveries is probably $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce. I think that is too low of a price.
The patience and conviction to be successful in this type of investing are extraordinarily high. Most professional investors cannot even pretend to be as patient. Mr. Kaplan became involved in Novagold during the crisis of 2009–imagine the fear and financial stress swirling amongst investors then. Recognizing the obvious: Intrinsic value rising well before price From 2009 to 2019 the intrinsic value was RISING as Novagold became de-risked. The decade ticked by as Novagold obtained all the required permits, it strengthened relationships with native communities, it spun off non-core assets like Galore (copper) to Trilogy, Novagold treasury increased its cash balance to $250 million with an annual cash burn of less than $10 million, and NG’s relationship with Barrick strengthened. Few cared or paid attention. Meanwhile, many jurisdictions have become even higher risk like the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, etc. Price goes sideways while intrinsic value rises quietly. These are the best situations to hold onto. You just need VAST patience and to pay attention. Value accretion was occurring away from the financial statements. You would see expenses each quarter, but you would need to be aware of the permits won and the relationships strengthened. No algorithm or computer screening model will do that for you. But NG just traded as part of an index until decoupling in mid-2019. Everything related to Novagold was increasing except the share price until one day……. Meanwhile, Mr. Kaplan held fast because of his knowledge and conviction. NG trades with the indexes, GDX and GDXJ, then decouples upward as price catches up with intrinsic value. As a word of caution, this post is not a recommendation to buy Novagold even though I have been a shareholder since 2015. You should understand that Mr. Kaplan has been an investor for over 11 years through declines of 85% in NG’s share price. As an investor you might check on the statements and claims made in the annual reports listed below. If Novagold’s grade is considered outstanding, then look at the annual reports of five major miners and verify/check whether that fact checks out. Take nothing on faith so you can learn conviction.
How would you be willing to hold a investment without a huge payoff for over a decade while waiting for the market to turn to your analysis?
THE-HISTORIAN-Thomas-Kaplan-Gold-and-Novagold Download
Kaplan-NOVAGOLD_Chairman-Letter-2019 Download
Thomas-Kaplan-on-Gold-and-Various-Articles Download
Lang-2019-Letter-Novagold Download
NG_2018-AR-Chairman
Download
Kaplan-_NG_2017_SH-letter-BD Download
NG_AR_2016
Download
NG_AR_Tortoise-and-the-Hare_2015 Download
NG_AnnualReport_2012 Download
NG_AnnualReport_2008 Download
If you study those letters and annual reports, you will have a course in patient investing in a deeply cyclical industry and in understanding gold.
* UPDATE 5/1/2020: 2008 Annual Report marks the ENTRY OF ELECTRUM during the Great Financial Crisis. * 2012 Annual Report began the time when MANAGEMENT CHANGE had begun in earnest with CEO Greg Lang arriving from Barrick Gold as well as divesting of assets to focus on Donlin Gold. Those actions made the company into a PERPETUAL OPTION on the value of gold. * _The Tortoise and The Hare Chairman’s Letter of 2015 _explains why Thomas Kaplan was (and remains) bullish towards gold. * Please note how consistent Mr. Kaplan’s and Novagold’s message has been over the past twelve years. The Donlin project attributes remain consistent even while the resource base increases. Remember that Novagold (NG) as a perpetual option is highly leveraged to the price of gold and to sentiment so expect prices swings of 25% to 50% or more. Such is the requirement to being a long-term investor. My secret is not to look at the share price but once a quarter. Short Report: 2020_05_28_ng Download
technical_report_donlin_gold Download
Novagold’s response-to-short-report-June-2020 Download
2020-06-08c
Download
2020-06-08
Download
2020-06-08b
Download
Short-and-Distort-Campaigns-WeinerWeberHsu-1 Download
Short attacks are ultimately noise. Eventually, value will out. Leave a comment
Posted in History ,
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Uncategorized , YOU
WALL STREET NEVER CHANGES Posted on April 17, 2020 | Leave
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Posted in History , Humor & Entertainment ,
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CASE STUDY ON CAPITAL CYCLE: TIDEWATER Posted on April 9, 2020 | 8 comments
Below is a case study of the capital cycle using Tidewater as an example. This page will be updated over time. This is not an investment recommendation but an ongoing case study. CAPITAL CYCLE CASE STUDY: http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/JAC-Case-Study-Capital-Cycle-and-Tidewater-1.pdf Since Tidewater has been in business since 1955, its service is needed, but this is–at best–no more than an average business with no long-term competitive advantage. Currently, there is a trade-off between a decline in intrinsic value as time progresses without economic charter rates versus Tidewater’s competitive advantage over financially distressed competitors. Update: 4/17/20
Tidewater filed to protect its $300 million in NOLs and $388 million in foreign tax credits. As an investor, you know that the NOLs can be worth more than $0 to worth a whole lot. Meanwhile, Hornbeck (HOSS), a competitor filed for bankruptcy. Update: 4/21/2020 US Crude oil near-term futures trade at a negative price for the first time in history. Natural gas is rising in price as shut-in oil wells reduce natural gas supply. What we are witnessing is a massive destruction of capital and productive capacity thanks to covid-19 and negative global interest rates. The future might require far higher oil prices. Near-term one would expect more pressure on TDW’s price because of the fear in hydrocarbon markets. Update: 4/22/2020 TDW does not seem to be declining with oil prices–a divergence that may be signaling some change–perhaps investors are looking out at the supply destruction in oil. http://siemoffshore.com/Default.aspx?ID=9 4/25/20: Siem Management in their 2019 Shareholder letter move from hopeful to despair. (A good sign for Tidewater). These are dark days for the OSV industry and what you typically hear about in the depths of a downcycle.
The Siem Offshore is exposed to a number of risks. One of the most important risk factors is the DEMAND FOR ITS SERVICES. The OSV market is now in its 7TH YEAR OF DEPRESSED CONDITIONS and it has taken LONGER TO RECOVER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. It is HIGHLY UNCERTAIN as to when charter rates will offer sufficient earnings for full debt servicing. The Company has been able to reduce its debt substantially over the last five years. Principal payment of debt instalments in 2019 was USD99 million (2018: 195 million). The significant debt reduction has been possible due to good cooperation between the Company and its financing banks, significant shareholder support, good ship operations and disposal of non-strategic and older assets. However, the SIGNIFICANT EXCESS CAPACITY in the worldwide offshore service vessel fleet has increased the competition amongst owners for any vessel requirements, thereby depressing charter rates. The imbalance of supply and demand for offshore vessels is expected to remain for some years and will continue to put pressure on the charter rates and our cash flows. Five vessels were in lay-up at year-end 2019. 4/22/2020 OUTLOOK FROM SIEM OFFSHORE’S ANNUAL REPORT. DESPAIR! The collapse in the oil price and the effect of the COVID-19 on the world’s economies have created a very different operating environment for our fleet. Field developments offshore are being cancelled or postponed by our clients and THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS WORK OFFSHORE DURING THE COMING SEVERAL YEARS. The demand for our services will therefore reduce rather than increase. At the end of last year, we looked forward to a gradual recovery in offshore activities and the nearing of balance in supply and demand in the OSV sector. That hope is now gone and we brace ourselves for a downturn probably worse than we have experienced during the past few years. The actions required to achieve the best possible outcome when confronted with the market difficulties include consolidations between and among debt-burdened owners, such as practically all OSV owners in Norway. This is the time when owners should work together to embrace the opportunities to survive until the end of a long, dark tunnel of slow activity in the market for all of our vessels. Only by working together can the right scheduling and layup of vessels be achieved. The cost saving would be an added benefit. Most of our lending banks are lenders to several if not all of the competing OSV owners and are in the position to influence this required development. Disappointedly, the banks do not appear willing or prepared to assume this vital role.
The financial problems are currently solved independently within each company giving the owners more time to compete fiercely with each other, all to the benefit of the clients. Owners are seen to take higher risks as the clients take advantage of the desperate situations to shift operating risks from the clients to the OSV owners. The latter accepts the risks because they have nothing more to lose. Ironically, it is the banks who are exposed to the contractual downside in this new reality. THIS HAS CREATED AN ARTIFICIAL, UNHEALTHY AND UNSUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVE SITUATION IN OUR INDUSTRY. MAY 17, 2020 UPDATE. TIDEWATER CURRENTLY TRADES AT $4.13 OR ABOUT 24% BELOW ITS SCRAP LIQUIDATION VALUE IF WE TAKE HORNBECK’S BANKRUPTCY FILING AS A GUIDE.
Tidewater had 157 vessels operating at the end of the year. It took 4 of its active fleet to sell. So let’s take 150 vessels times $2 million per vessel (See last page on Hornbeck Bankruptcy filing below) for 300 million sales/scrap value then minus $85 million net debt for $215 liquidation value divided by 42 million shares or $5.11 per share. At $4.13, TDW trades 24% below this value. Hornbeck-Bankruptcy-April-2020 Download
TDW-Value-Analysis
Download
TDW-1-Q-2020
Download
I realize that the next twelve to eighteen months will be extremely difficult for TDW as it races to scrap excess vessels and conserve cash, but I don’t think it is a CERTAINTY THAT TDW WILL HAVE TO RESTRUCTURE IT DEBT OR DECLARE BANKRUPTCY AGAIN, but the market is pricing for extreme events ALREADY. The issue is whether to add on weakness.
The biggest risk is if financiers continue to throw good money after bad in this OSV industry. We shall see. Corrected June 2020 Expected Value Table JAC-Case-Study-OSV-and-Tidewater-Updated-June-2020Download Update on June 3, 2020. Robotti Letter to Tidewater Board on Poison Pill
https://advisors.robotti.com/blog-items/carpe-diem-read-robottis-letter-to-the-tdw-board-re-consolidation/ 8 Comments
Posted in Competitive Analysis , History
, Management
, Risk Management
, Special Situations , Uncategorized
Tagged Case Study ,
commodities , TDW
, The capital cycle
CAPT. SULLY HAS LESSONS FOR INVESTORS Posted on January 7, 2020 | Leave a comment
These two videos give investors an overview of how important preparation is for success under extreme pressure. Leave a comment
Posted in Uncategorized RELATIVE VALUES
Posted on October 16, 2019 | Leave a comment
Most investors are not aware of the improvements that miners in general have made. 1. Managements have lowered costs. 2. They have been careful on capex and acquisitions. 3. oil prices,a big input cost, have lagged the rise in gold. 4. And finally, free cash flows are increasing.
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Posted in Uncategorized Video
LEARNING FROM OTHER INDUSTRIES 4 Comments
Posted on August 20, 2019 in
Risk Management ,
Uncategorized , YOU
Tagged Investor Psychology , microcap club
, Morgan Housel
AN OLD FILM ON THE STOCK MARKET Posted on August 5, 2019 |
1 comment
http://www.historicfilms.com/tapes/5008 PRESENTS BEHIND-THE-SCENES DOCUMENTARY OF A DAY ON WALL STREET FROM OPENING GONG TO CLOSING OF THE DAY’S TRADING IN THE STOCK MARKET. FURIOUS PACE OF NEW YORK & AMERICAN STOCK EXCHANGES AND COMMODITY TRADING MARKETS AS LEADING BROKERS AND TRADERS EXPLAIN THEIR BUYING AND SELLING PHILOSOPHIES WITHOUT INTERRUPTING THEIR ACTIVITIES ON THE FLOOR. This covers the history of the stock market mostly from 1920 to 1960. Fascinating.
Stock market Excellent talk on the cyclicality of uranium and how to invest https://youtu.be/uH0OE_M3oXk 1 Comment
Posted in History
Tagged Commodity Trading , Hostory
, Stock Exchanges
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