CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONS BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
BRUNEI PEAK OIL
Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Fig 1: Gold plated dome of the Sultan Omar Ali Saifuddin Mosque in Bandar Seri Begawan. Fig 2: Brunei crude & NGL production. The 2nd and last peak was in 2006 (Shell at 104 kb/d) Shell and the Brunei government are 50:50 shareholders in Brunei Shell Petroleum THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
PEAK OIL IN AFRICA PART1: OPEC QUOTAS JAN 2021 Nigerian crude oil production peaked in November 2005. A trend line since then points to 1,580 kb/ for March 2021, slightly above the quota. But production in December 2020 has dropped to around 1,420 kb/d, below the quota. The reference is the highest production level achieved in 2019.
CHINA – AUSTRALIA PASSENGER TRAFFIC HAS PEAKED 2018-19 The number of arriving and departing passengers on direct flights from/to (mainland) Chinese airports has peaked in 2018 and 2019, BEFORE the corona virus hit in the 1st quarter of OIL CRISIS 1973
Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. YEMEN - CRUDE OIL PEAK Yemen is an oil-dependent economy that faces a rapidly declining oil production. On average, 85 percent of exports and 65 percent of fiscal revenues were derived from oil exports and domestic oil trade since 2000. The production peaked in 2001 and has since declined at a rate of about 3 to 4 percent per annum. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
ALMOST HALF OF AUSTRALIA’S PETROL, DIESEL AND JET FUEL Almost half of Australia’s petrol, diesel and jet fuel imports come from South Korea and Japan. As the world wonders what comes next in the North Korean missile crisis we need to have a look what a military confrontation would mean for Australia. This article from the Sydney Morning Herald describes some aspects. CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONS BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. BRUNEI PEAK OIL
Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Fig 1: Gold plated dome of the Sultan Omar Ali Saifuddin Mosque in Bandar Seri Begawan. Fig 2: Brunei crude & NGL production. The 2nd and last peak was in 2006 (Shell at 104 kb/d) Shell and the Brunei government are 50:50 shareholders in Brunei Shell Petroleum THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
PEAK OIL IN AFRICA PART1: OPEC QUOTAS JAN 2021 Nigerian crude oil production peaked in November 2005. A trend line since then points to 1,580 kb/ for March 2021, slightly above the quota. But production in December 2020 has dropped to around 1,420 kb/d, below the quota. The reference is the highest production level achieved in 2019.
CHINA – AUSTRALIA PASSENGER TRAFFIC HAS PEAKED 2018-19 The number of arriving and departing passengers on direct flights from/to (mainland) Chinese airports has peaked in 2018 and 2019, BEFORE the corona virus hit in the 1st quarter of OIL CRISIS 1973
Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. YEMEN - CRUDE OIL PEAK Yemen is an oil-dependent economy that faces a rapidly declining oil production. On average, 85 percent of exports and 65 percent of fiscal revenues were derived from oil exports and domestic oil trade since 2000. The production peaked in 2001 and has since declined at a rate of about 3 to 4 percent per annum. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
ALMOST HALF OF AUSTRALIA’S PETROL, DIESEL AND JET FUEL Almost half of Australia’s petrol, diesel and jet fuel imports come from South Korea and Japan. As the world wonders what comes next in the North Korean missile crisis we need to have a look what a military confrontation would mean for Australia. This article from the Sydney Morning Herald describes some aspects. OIL PRICE ANALYSIS
November 2016. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie. “All five of the major oil-producers in region – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will run a fiscal deficit in 2016. Deficits will range from 4% of GDP in Iran, to ~20% of GDP in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq by our estimates. Given the size of fiscal deficits, these economies face PEAK OIL IN SOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA Oil reserves are dominated by Venezuela and in particular the extra heavy oil of the Orinoco Belt. Fig 21: Chavez mostrando crudo extrapesado. Fig 22: Oil reserve history in the rest of S&C America. The 2nd largest reserves are in Brazil but the R/P ratio is only 12 years. There was a peak in 2014. PEAK OIL IN AFRICA PART1: OPEC QUOTAS JAN 2021 Nigerian crude oil production peaked in November 2005. A trend line since then points to 1,580 kb/ for March 2021, slightly above the quota. But production in December 2020 has dropped to around 1,420 kb/d, below the quota. The reference is the highest production level achieved in 2019.
JAPAN OIL IMPORTS
Update with data to July 2020 Update with data to March 2020 Data from here: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/nenkan/index.html Japanese gross oil imports 2012 AUSTRALIA’S BP KWINANA REFINERY CLOSURE: PEAK OIL CONTEXT Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode. BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security. 30 Oct 2020. Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth. Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the YEMEN - CRUDE OIL PEAK Yemen is an oil-dependent economy that faces a rapidly declining oil production. On average, 85 percent of exports and 65 percent of fiscal revenues were derived from oil exports and domestic oil trade since 2000. The production peaked in 2001 and has since declined at a rate of about 3 to 4 percent per annum. CATEGORY ARCHIVES: AFRICA In this 2nd part we use data from the BP Statistical Review (June 2020). BP’s definition of oil is different from OPEC’s crude oil used in part 1.
NSW POWER SPOT PRICE SPIKES MAY 2021 BECOME REGULAR (PART 1) Liddell outages, load shedding at the Tomago alu smelter and reduced power imports from Queensland after the generator fire at Callide have caused price spikes in NSW which mean that AUSTRALIA’S OIL CONSUMPTION HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO EVENTS IN Singapore’s crude oil dependence on the ME is 77% (2019) Fig 20: In 2018, Singapore imported 77% of its crude oil from the Middle East. Fig 21: Singapore’s oil product imports. Only 14% of Singapore’s oil product imports come from the Middle East. How much is re-exported to Australia goes beyond the scope of this article. EXXON MOBIL’S REFINERY CLOSURE IN AUSTRALIA: PEAK OIL CONTEXT Exxon Mobil’s refinery closure in Australia: peak oil context. Exxon Mobil’s Melbourne refinery is closing and will be converted into a fuel import terminal. The Australian public broadcaster has found the right title for its article: The refinery has a capacity of CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONS BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. LATEST GRAPHS
In March 2011, global crude oil production was 73,497 kb/d, slightly below 73,784 Kb/d in March 2005, and practically the average achieved during the last 6 years, which was 73,400 kb/d. We see that the oil “saved” in decline periods (red) was more or less consumed in growth periods (dark blue). OIL RESERVES
Column 4 Indicated total: Column 2 divided by Column 3 (e.g. Iraq 28 Gb / 0.22 = 127 Gb ) Column 5 Remaining reserves PFC Energy: Column 4 minus Column 2 (e.g. Iraq 127 Gb – 28 Gb – 99 Gb) Column 6 ASPO remaining reserves. Column 7 Salameh remaining reserves. Column 8 BP quoted remaining reserves. Column 9 BP “reserves” are total oil US DRILLING RIG COUNT Update May 2020.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43796. Update February 2018. Update March 2017. Update September 2017. EIA Estimates of Drilled but
OIL PRICE ANALYSIS
November 2016. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie. “All five of the major oil-producers in region – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will run a fiscal deficit in 2016. Deficits will range from 4% of GDP in Iran, to ~20% of GDP in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq by our estimates. Given the size of fiscal deficits, these economies face LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). PEAK OIL IN AFRICA PART1: OPEC QUOTAS JAN 2021 Nigerian crude oil production peaked in November 2005. A trend line since then points to 1,580 kb/ for March 2021, slightly above the quota. But production in December 2020 has dropped to around 1,420 kb/d, below the quota. The reference is the highest production level achieved in 2019.
OIL CRISIS 1973
Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONS BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. LATEST GRAPHS
In March 2011, global crude oil production was 73,497 kb/d, slightly below 73,784 Kb/d in March 2005, and practically the average achieved during the last 6 years, which was 73,400 kb/d. We see that the oil “saved” in decline periods (red) was more or less consumed in growth periods (dark blue). OIL RESERVES
Column 4 Indicated total: Column 2 divided by Column 3 (e.g. Iraq 28 Gb / 0.22 = 127 Gb ) Column 5 Remaining reserves PFC Energy: Column 4 minus Column 2 (e.g. Iraq 127 Gb – 28 Gb – 99 Gb) Column 6 ASPO remaining reserves. Column 7 Salameh remaining reserves. Column 8 BP quoted remaining reserves. Column 9 BP “reserves” are total oil US DRILLING RIG COUNT Update May 2020.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43796. Update February 2018. Update March 2017. Update September 2017. EIA Estimates of Drilled but
OIL PRICE ANALYSIS
November 2016. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie. “All five of the major oil-producers in region – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will run a fiscal deficit in 2016. Deficits will range from 4% of GDP in Iran, to ~20% of GDP in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq by our estimates. Given the size of fiscal deficits, these economies face LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). PEAK OIL IN AFRICA PART1: OPEC QUOTAS JAN 2021 Nigerian crude oil production peaked in November 2005. A trend line since then points to 1,580 kb/ for March 2021, slightly above the quota. But production in December 2020 has dropped to around 1,420 kb/d, below the quota. The reference is the highest production level achieved in 2019.
OIL CRISIS 1973
Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
LATEST GRAPHS
In March 2011, global crude oil production was 73,497 kb/d, slightly below 73,784 Kb/d in March 2005, and practically the average achieved during the last 6 years, which was 73,400 kb/d. We see that the oil “saved” in decline periods (red) was more or less consumed in growth periods (dark blue). GLOBAL PEAK
Jean Laherrere March 2015. http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/texts/documents. Energy Watch Group 2013. From: Energy Watch Group http://energywatchgroup.org/Releases.26 OIL RESERVES
Column 4 Indicated total: Column 2 divided by Column 3 (e.g. Iraq 28 Gb / 0.22 = 127 Gb ) Column 5 Remaining reserves PFC Energy: Column 4 minus Column 2 (e.g. Iraq 127 Gb – 28 Gb – 99 Gb) Column 6 ASPO remaining reserves. Column 7 Salameh remaining reserves. Column 8 BP quoted remaining reserves. Column 9 BP “reserves” are total oil CHINA – AUSTRALIA PASSENGER TRAFFIC HAS PEAKED 2018-19 The number of arriving and departing passengers on direct flights from/to (mainland) Chinese airports has peaked in 2018 and 2019, BEFORE the corona virus hit in the 1st quarter of AUSTRALIA’S BP KWINANA REFINERY CLOSURE: PEAK OIL CONTEXT Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode. BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security. 30 Oct 2020. Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth. Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the PEAK OIL IN LATIN AMERICA Peak oil in Latin America. This post is using mainly BP’s Statistical Review published in June 2017. Although these statistics put Mexico under North America, it is included here and added to South and Central America’s data at the end of this article. We start with 2
PEAK OIL IN VENEZUELA: EL FURRIAL OIL FIELD We see the impact of the conventional oil peak in Venezuela. As an example let’s look at the El-Furrial field. Fig 1: Not La-Hora-Zero (yet) but low voter turn-out for the May 20 Maduro election AUSTRALIA’S OIL CONSUMPTION HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO EVENTS IN Singapore’s crude oil dependence on the ME is 77% (2019) Fig 20: In 2018, Singapore imported 77% of its crude oil from the Middle East. Fig 21: Singapore’s oil product imports. Only 14% of Singapore’s oil product imports come from the Middle East. How much is re-exported to Australia goes beyond the scope of this article. BP PEAK OIL (UK DECLINE, ASSET SALES AND DECOMMISSIONING Daily production is now only 1/10 of peak production. BP to sell part of interests in Magnus field and Sullom Voe terminal in UK North Sea to EnQuest. 24 Jan 2017. Included in the agreement are: 25% of BP’s 100% stake in Magnus, 25% of BP’s interests in a number of associated pipelines and a 3% interest in the Sullom Voe Terminal from BP
EGYPT UPDATE: NET OIL IMPORTER AND CHOKEPOINTS Egypt is now a net oil importer. On these trends, the gap between consumption and production is likely to get larger. This increases imports and the need for fuel subsidies. Let’s zoom into the monthly oil production (crude and NGL separately) CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONS BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. LATEST GRAPHS
In March 2011, global crude oil production was 73,497 kb/d, slightly below 73,784 Kb/d in March 2005, and practically the average achieved during the last 6 years, which was 73,400 kb/d. We see that the oil “saved” in decline periods (red) was more or less consumed in growth periods (dark blue). OIL RESERVES
Column 4 Indicated total: Column 2 divided by Column 3 (e.g. Iraq 28 Gb / 0.22 = 127 Gb ) Column 5 Remaining reserves PFC Energy: Column 4 minus Column 2 (e.g. Iraq 127 Gb – 28 Gb – 99 Gb) Column 6 ASPO remaining reserves. Column 7 Salameh remaining reserves. Column 8 BP quoted remaining reserves. Column 9 BP “reserves” are total oil US DRILLING RIG COUNT Update May 2020.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43796. Update February 2018. Update March 2017. Update September 2017. EIA Estimates of Drilled but
OIL PRICE ANALYSIS
November 2016. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie. “All five of the major oil-producers in region – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will run a fiscal deficit in 2016. Deficits will range from 4% of GDP in Iran, to ~20% of GDP in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq by our estimates. Given the size of fiscal deficits, these economies face LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). PEAK OIL IN AFRICA PART1: OPEC QUOTAS JAN 2021 Nigerian crude oil production peaked in November 2005. A trend line since then points to 1,580 kb/ for March 2021, slightly above the quota. But production in December 2020 has dropped to around 1,420 kb/d, below the quota. The reference is the highest production level achieved in 2019.
OIL CRISIS 1973
Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONS BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. LATEST GRAPHS
In March 2011, global crude oil production was 73,497 kb/d, slightly below 73,784 Kb/d in March 2005, and practically the average achieved during the last 6 years, which was 73,400 kb/d. We see that the oil “saved” in decline periods (red) was more or less consumed in growth periods (dark blue). OIL RESERVES
Column 4 Indicated total: Column 2 divided by Column 3 (e.g. Iraq 28 Gb / 0.22 = 127 Gb ) Column 5 Remaining reserves PFC Energy: Column 4 minus Column 2 (e.g. Iraq 127 Gb – 28 Gb – 99 Gb) Column 6 ASPO remaining reserves. Column 7 Salameh remaining reserves. Column 8 BP quoted remaining reserves. Column 9 BP “reserves” are total oil US DRILLING RIG COUNT Update May 2020.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43796. Update February 2018. Update March 2017. Update September 2017. EIA Estimates of Drilled but
OIL PRICE ANALYSIS
November 2016. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie. “All five of the major oil-producers in region – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will run a fiscal deficit in 2016. Deficits will range from 4% of GDP in Iran, to ~20% of GDP in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq by our estimates. Given the size of fiscal deficits, these economies face LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). PEAK OIL IN AFRICA PART1: OPEC QUOTAS JAN 2021 Nigerian crude oil production peaked in November 2005. A trend line since then points to 1,580 kb/ for March 2021, slightly above the quota. But production in December 2020 has dropped to around 1,420 kb/d, below the quota. The reference is the highest production level achieved in 2019.
OIL CRISIS 1973
Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
LATEST GRAPHS
In March 2011, global crude oil production was 73,497 kb/d, slightly below 73,784 Kb/d in March 2005, and practically the average achieved during the last 6 years, which was 73,400 kb/d. We see that the oil “saved” in decline periods (red) was more or less consumed in growth periods (dark blue). GLOBAL PEAK
Jean Laherrere March 2015. http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/texts/documents. Energy Watch Group 2013. From: Energy Watch Group http://energywatchgroup.org/Releases.26 OIL RESERVES
Column 4 Indicated total: Column 2 divided by Column 3 (e.g. Iraq 28 Gb / 0.22 = 127 Gb ) Column 5 Remaining reserves PFC Energy: Column 4 minus Column 2 (e.g. Iraq 127 Gb – 28 Gb – 99 Gb) Column 6 ASPO remaining reserves. Column 7 Salameh remaining reserves. Column 8 BP quoted remaining reserves. Column 9 BP “reserves” are total oil AUSTRALIA’S BP KWINANA REFINERY CLOSURE: PEAK OIL CONTEXT Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode. BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security. 30 Oct 2020. Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth. Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the CHINA – AUSTRALIA PASSENGER TRAFFIC HAS PEAKED 2018-19 The number of arriving and departing passengers on direct flights from/to (mainland) Chinese airports has peaked in 2018 and 2019, BEFORE the corona virus hit in the 1st quarter of NSW POWER SPOT PRICE SPIKES MAY 2021 BECOME REGULAR (PART 1) Liddell outages, load shedding at the Tomago alu smelter and reduced power imports from Queensland after the generator fire at Callide have caused price spikes in NSW which mean that PEAK OIL IN LATIN AMERICA Peak oil in Latin America. This post is using mainly BP’s Statistical Review published in June 2017. Although these statistics put Mexico under North America, it is included here and added to South and Central America’s data at the end of this article. We start with 2
PEAK OIL IN VENEZUELA: EL FURRIAL OIL FIELD We see the impact of the conventional oil peak in Venezuela. As an example let’s look at the El-Furrial field. Fig 1: Not La-Hora-Zero (yet) but low voter turn-out for the May 20 Maduro election AUSTRALIA’S OIL CONSUMPTION HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO EVENTS IN Singapore’s crude oil dependence on the ME is 77% (2019) Fig 20: In 2018, Singapore imported 77% of its crude oil from the Middle East. Fig 21: Singapore’s oil product imports. Only 14% of Singapore’s oil product imports come from the Middle East. How much is re-exported to Australia goes beyond the scope of this article. EGYPT UPDATE: NET OIL IMPORTER AND CHOKEPOINTS Egypt is now a net oil importer. On these trends, the gap between consumption and production is likely to get larger. This increases imports and the need for fuel subsidies. Let’s zoom into the monthly oil production (crude and NGL separately) CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONS BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. OIL PRICE ANALYSIS
November 2016. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie. “All five of the major oil-producers in region – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will run a fiscal deficit in 2016. Deficits will range from 4% of GDP in Iran, to ~20% of GDP in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq by our estimates. Given the size of fiscal deficits, these economies face LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
BRUNEI PEAK OIL
Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Fig 1: Gold plated dome of the Sultan Omar Ali Saifuddin Mosque in Bandar Seri Begawan. Fig 2: Brunei crude & NGL production. The 2nd and last peak was in 2006 (Shell at 104 kb/d) Shell and the Brunei government are 50:50 shareholders in Brunei Shell Petroleum THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). AUSTRALIA’S BP KWINANA REFINERY CLOSURE: PEAK OIL CONTEXT Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode. BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security. 30 Oct 2020. Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth. Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the OIL CRISIS 1973
Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
PEAK OIL IN VENEZUELA: EL FURRIAL OIL FIELDSEE MORE ON CRUDEOILPEAK.INFO
ASIA DEPENDS ON MIDDLE EAST FOR 66 % OF ITS OIL IMPORTSSEE MORE ON CRUDEOILPEAK.INFO
CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONS BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. OIL PRICE ANALYSIS
November 2016. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie. “All five of the major oil-producers in region – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will run a fiscal deficit in 2016. Deficits will range from 4% of GDP in Iran, to ~20% of GDP in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq by our estimates. Given the size of fiscal deficits, these economies face LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
BRUNEI PEAK OIL
Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Fig 1: Gold plated dome of the Sultan Omar Ali Saifuddin Mosque in Bandar Seri Begawan. Fig 2: Brunei crude & NGL production. The 2nd and last peak was in 2006 (Shell at 104 kb/d) Shell and the Brunei government are 50:50 shareholders in Brunei Shell Petroleum THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). AUSTRALIA’S BP KWINANA REFINERY CLOSURE: PEAK OIL CONTEXT Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode. BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security. 30 Oct 2020. Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth. Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the OIL CRISIS 1973
Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
PEAK OIL IN VENEZUELA: EL FURRIAL OIL FIELDSEE MORE ON CRUDEOILPEAK.INFO
ASIA DEPENDS ON MIDDLE EAST FOR 66 % OF ITS OIL IMPORTSSEE MORE ON CRUDEOILPEAK.INFO
ABOUT - CRUDE OIL PEAK It’s a number crunching job. This site is about monitoring: (1) the global crude oil peak and its impact on the economy. (2) peaking of oil production in various countries, in particular those with geo-political importance. (3) oil dependent infrastructure like motorways and airports. (4) links between peak oil and the debt problem.
OIL RESERVES
Column 4 Indicated total: Column 2 divided by Column 3 (e.g. Iraq 28 Gb / 0.22 = 127 Gb ) Column 5 Remaining reserves PFC Energy: Column 4 minus Column 2 (e.g. Iraq 127 Gb – 28 Gb – 99 Gb) Column 6 ASPO remaining reserves. Column 7 Salameh remaining reserves. Column 8 BP quoted remaining reserves. Column 9 BP “reserves” are total oil PEAK OIL IN ASIA UPDATE JUNE 2020 (PART 2) Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2) By. matt. – July 15, 2020 Posted in: Asia, BP Statistical Review, China, Debt, India. Continued from part 1. But there is another metric explaining China’s oil consumption growth: debt. The following graph is from an article by the Institute of International Finance in its weekly insight of 14 May CHINA PEAK OIL
Daqing, China’s largest oilfield, to reduce output. By 2020, Daqing’s annual output will be slashed to 32 million tonnes with an annual reduction of more than 1.3 million tonnes, the conference said. As China’s largest inland oilfield, Daqing has produced more than 2.1 billion tonnes of crude oil since production started in 1960. GLOBAL WARMING
Global warming. 8/3/2010. NASA climatologist James Hansen at Sydney Uni: “Australia doesn’t agree now that they got to stop their coal, but they are going to agree. I can guarantee you that within a decade or so because the climate change will become so strongly apparent that’s going to become imperative”. AUSTRALIA’S BP KWINANA REFINERY CLOSURE: PEAK OIL CONTEXT Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode. BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security. 30 Oct 2020. Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth. Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the CATEGORY ARCHIVES: UNITED STATES US crude oil imports and exports update April 2018 data. Posted on July 11, 2018 | No Comments. Contrary to common assumptions that the US is on the cusp of energy independence US crude oil imports averaged 7.8 mb/d in the last 12 months. 3.5 mb/d came from neighboring YEMEN - CRUDE OIL PEAK Yemen is an oil-dependent economy that faces a rapidly declining oil production. On average, 85 percent of exports and 65 percent of fiscal revenues were derived from oil exports and domestic oil trade since 2000. The production peaked in 2001 and has since declined at a rate of about 3 to 4 percent per annum. NSW POWER SPOT PRICE SPIKES MAY 2021 BECOME REGULAR (PART 1) Liddell outages, load shedding at the Tomago alu smelter and reduced power imports from Queensland after the generator fire at Callide have caused price spikes in NSW which mean that THE ATTACKS ON ABQAIQ AND PEAK OIL IN GHAWAR Fig 2: Matt Simmons’ book. he could not have imagined that Saudi Arabia would be threatened by a pre-dawn drone & missile attack on a plant in Abqaiq, processing oil from Ghawar, the very oil field Matt had warned suffered from high water cut rates and could not maintain production rates of 5 mb/d (chapter 7). CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONSPEAK OIL DOCUMENTARYPEAK OIL DOCUMENTARYPEAK OIL FACTSPEAK OIL MYTHPEAK OIL PREDICTION BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. OIL PRICE ANALYSIS5 YEAR CRUDE OIL PRICESCRUDE OIL PRICE HISTORYCRUDE OIL PRICE IN 2014CRUDE OIL PRICE NETCRUDE OIL PRICES TODAY November 2016. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie. “All five of the major oil-producers in region – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will run a fiscal deficit in 2016. Deficits will range from 4% of GDP in Iran, to ~20% of GDP in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq by our estimates. Given the size of fiscal deficits, these economies face LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
BRUNEI PEAK OIL
Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Fig 1: Gold plated dome of the Sultan Omar Ali Saifuddin Mosque in Bandar Seri Begawan. Fig 2: Brunei crude & NGL production. The 2nd and last peak was in 2006 (Shell at 104 kb/d) Shell and the Brunei government are 50:50 shareholders in Brunei Shell Petroleum THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). AUSTRALIA’S BP KWINANA REFINERY CLOSURE: PEAK OIL CONTEXTBP KWINANA CLOSING2020 REFINERY CLOSURESBP BULWER CLOSINGREFINERY CLOSURES IN GULF COAST
Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode. BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security. 30 Oct 2020. Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth. Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the OIL CRISIS 1973US OIL CRISIS 19731970 OIL CRISIS1973 GAS CRISIS1973 OIL CRISIS TIMELINE1973 OIL CRISIS WIKIPEDIA2008 OIL CRISIS Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
PEAK OIL IN VENEZUELA: EL FURRIAL OIL FIELDSEE MORE ON CRUDEOILPEAK.INFO
ASIA DEPENDS ON MIDDLE EAST FOR 66 % OF ITS OIL IMPORTSSEE MORE ON CRUDEOILPEAK.INFO
CRUDE OIL PEAKHOMEOECD IMPORTSAUSTRALIAN GRAPHSOIL RESERVESGLOBAL PEAKENERGY TRANSITIONSPEAK OIL DOCUMENTARYPEAK OIL DOCUMENTARYPEAK OIL FACTSPEAK OIL MYTHPEAK OIL PREDICTION BP peak oil (UK decline, asset sales and decommissioning Part 1) West of the Shetland Islands, the battle against oil decline is over for BP. SPGlobal reports: BP halts production at oldest West of Shetland oil facility Foinaven on asset decline Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. OIL PRICE ANALYSIS5 YEAR CRUDE OIL PRICESCRUDE OIL PRICE HISTORYCRUDE OIL PRICE IN 2014CRUDE OIL PRICE NETCRUDE OIL PRICES TODAY November 2016. Analysis from Wood Mackenzie. “All five of the major oil-producers in region – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – will run a fiscal deficit in 2016. Deficits will range from 4% of GDP in Iran, to ~20% of GDP in both Saudi Arabia and Iraq by our estimates. Given the size of fiscal deficits, these economies face LNG LOCOMOTIVE CONVERSION For the locomotives, the Burlington Northern Railroad and Air Products and Chemicals worked with ECI to convert two 3,000 hp EMD SD40-2 locomotives (engine model 16-645E3B) to run in a dual fuel mode. This engine conversion kit utilized a low pressure gas injection system which provided compression ignition of the fuel using diesel fuel as the
BRUNEI PEAK OIL
Brunei peak oil – golden opportunity for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Fig 1: Gold plated dome of the Sultan Omar Ali Saifuddin Mosque in Bandar Seri Begawan. Fig 2: Brunei crude & NGL production. The 2nd and last peak was in 2006 (Shell at 104 kb/d) Shell and the Brunei government are 50:50 shareholders in Brunei Shell Petroleum THE MYTH OF US SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN CRUDE OIL Crude imports. The graph shows that crude production reached almost 9.5 mb/d in 2015, just short of the historic peak in 1970. But imports are still 7 mb/d. Exports were only around 500 kb/d (to Canada) due to an export ban (which was recently lifted). AUSTRALIA’S BP KWINANA REFINERY CLOSURE: PEAK OIL CONTEXTBP KWINANA CLOSING2020 REFINERY CLOSURESBP BULWER CLOSINGREFINERY CLOSURES IN GULF COAST
Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode. BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security. 30 Oct 2020. Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth. Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the OIL CRISIS 1973US OIL CRISIS 19731970 OIL CRISIS1973 GAS CRISIS1973 OIL CRISIS TIMELINE1973 OIL CRISIS WIKIPEDIA2008 OIL CRISIS Oil crisis 1973. The 1st oil crisis was triggered by an OPEC oil embargo in response to US’ and Europe’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war (Oct 6 – Oct 25, 1973). On 17/10/1973, at a meeting in Kuwait, OPEC announced that exports would be reduced 5% per month until Israel withdraws from territories occupied in the 1967 war. PETROL RATIONING IN WW2 Petrol rationing in WW2. This interesting link from the Australian war memorial gives as a historic insight into petrol rationing during WW2, the public debate, conflicts between commercial and private interests, fighting between States and the general political and legal minefield in
PEAK OIL IN VENEZUELA: EL FURRIAL OIL FIELDSEE MORE ON CRUDEOILPEAK.INFO
ASIA DEPENDS ON MIDDLE EAST FOR 66 % OF ITS OIL IMPORTSSEE MORE ON CRUDEOILPEAK.INFO
ABOUT - CRUDE OIL PEAK It’s a number crunching job. This site is about monitoring: (1) the global crude oil peak and its impact on the economy. (2) peaking of oil production in various countries, in particular those with geo-political importance. (3) oil dependent infrastructure like motorways and airports. (4) links between peak oil and the debt problem.
OIL RESERVES
Column 4 Indicated total: Column 2 divided by Column 3 (e.g. Iraq 28 Gb / 0.22 = 127 Gb ) Column 5 Remaining reserves PFC Energy: Column 4 minus Column 2 (e.g. Iraq 127 Gb – 28 Gb – 99 Gb) Column 6 ASPO remaining reserves. Column 7 Salameh remaining reserves. Column 8 BP quoted remaining reserves. Column 9 BP “reserves” are total oil PEAK OIL IN ASIA UPDATE JUNE 2020 (PART 2) Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2) By. matt. – July 15, 2020 Posted in: Asia, BP Statistical Review, China, Debt, India. Continued from part 1. But there is another metric explaining China’s oil consumption growth: debt. The following graph is from an article by the Institute of International Finance in its weekly insight of 14 May CHINA PEAK OIL
Daqing, China’s largest oilfield, to reduce output. By 2020, Daqing’s annual output will be slashed to 32 million tonnes with an annual reduction of more than 1.3 million tonnes, the conference said. As China’s largest inland oilfield, Daqing has produced more than 2.1 billion tonnes of crude oil since production started in 1960. GLOBAL WARMING
Global warming. 8/3/2010. NASA climatologist James Hansen at Sydney Uni: “Australia doesn’t agree now that they got to stop their coal, but they are going to agree. I can guarantee you that within a decade or so because the climate change will become so strongly apparent that’s going to become imperative”. AUSTRALIA’S BP KWINANA REFINERY CLOSURE: PEAK OIL CONTEXT Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode. BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security. 30 Oct 2020. Fig 2: Kwinana refinery in Perth. Refining activities will wind down over the next six months, with the CATEGORY ARCHIVES: UNITED STATES US crude oil imports and exports update April 2018 data. Posted on July 11, 2018 | No Comments. Contrary to common assumptions that the US is on the cusp of energy independence US crude oil imports averaged 7.8 mb/d in the last 12 months. 3.5 mb/d came from neighboring YEMEN - CRUDE OIL PEAK Yemen is an oil-dependent economy that faces a rapidly declining oil production. On average, 85 percent of exports and 65 percent of fiscal revenues were derived from oil exports and domestic oil trade since 2000. The production peaked in 2001 and has since declined at a rate of about 3 to 4 percent per annum. NSW POWER SPOT PRICE SPIKES MAY 2021 BECOME REGULAR (PART 1) Liddell outages, load shedding at the Tomago alu smelter and reduced power imports from Queensland after the generator fire at Callide have caused price spikes in NSW which mean that THE ATTACKS ON ABQAIQ AND PEAK OIL IN GHAWAR Fig 2: Matt Simmons’ book. he could not have imagined that Saudi Arabia would be threatened by a pre-dawn drone & missile attack on a plant in Abqaiq, processing oil from Ghawar, the very oil field Matt had warned suffered from high water cut rates and could not maintain production rates of 5 mb/d (chapter 7). * South Korea
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How the first phase of peak oil brought Virgin Australia into minus after 2008
Fig 1: The conventional crude oil plateau started in 2005 At the end of the high oil price period in June 2014, Virgin Australia had liabilities of $ 4.7 bn. Impact of Corona Virus similar to some earlier peak oil scenarios Empty roads, grounded aircraft, falling tourist and international student numbers, plunging car sales, empty super market shelves, disrupted supply chains… Fig 1: Empty roads in Wuhan in February 2020 China
Bush fires cause load shedding in New South Wales – January 2020 The pervasive climate change denial of various Australian governments and its consequences in the energy sector now take terrible revenge. This article is about an incident on Sat 4th 2020. Australia’s oil consumption highly vulnerable to events in the Middle East
The world came very close to an escalating war in the Middle East. BBC asked: Iran missile attack: Did Tehran intentionally avoid US casualties? 8/1/2020 Fig 1: Damage to the First 6 posts
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HOW THE FIRST PHASE OF PEAK OIL BROUGHT VIRGIN AUSTRALIA INTO MINUS AFTER 2008
Posted on May 3, 2020 | No Comments Fig 1: The conventional crude oil plateau started in 2005 At the end of the high oil price period in June 2014, Virgin Australia had liabilities of $ 4.7 bn. Continue Reading...
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IMPACT OF CORONA VIRUS SIMILAR TO SOME EARLIER PEAK OIL SCENARIOS Posted on March 10, 2020 | No Comments Empty roads, grounded aircraft, falling tourist and international student numbers, plunging car sales, empty super market shelves, disrupted supply chains… Fig 1: Empty roads in Wuhan in February 2020 China Continue Reading...
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BUSH FIRES CAUSE LOAD SHEDDING IN NEW SOUTH WALES – JANUARY 2020 Posted on February 4, 2020 | No Comments The pervasive climate change denial of various Australian governments and its consequences in the energy sector now take terrible revenge. This article is about an incident on Sat 4th 2020. Continue Reading...
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AUSTRALIA’S OIL CONSUMPTION HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO EVENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Posted on January 12, 2020 | No Comments The world came very close to an escalating war in the Middle East. BBC asked: Iran missile attack: Did Tehran intentionally avoid US casualties? 8/1/2020 Fig 1: Damage to the
Continue Reading...
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UNCERTAINTIES FOLLOWING THE ABQAIQ ATTACK HAVE SHRUNK THE WORLD’S SAFE OIL RESERVES BY AROUND HALF (PART 2) Posted on October 24, 2019 | No Comments In part 1 we had a summary table comparing Rystad’s 1P (proven reserves), 2P (proven + probable reserves) and 2PC (2P reserves + mean contingent) for all countries outside the
Continue Reading...
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UNCERTAINTIES FOLLOWING THE ABQAIQ ATTACK HAVE SHRUNK THE WORLD’S SAFE OIL RESERVES BY AROUND HALF (PART 1) Posted on October 16, 2019 | No Comments The world has returned to business as usual after the Saudis assured oil markets that production will be back soon and as oil prices have returned to pre-attack levels and
Continue Reading...
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* Australia
HOW THE FIRST PHASE OF PEAK OIL BROUGHT VIRGIN AUSTRALIA INTO MINUS AFTER 2008
No Comments
* Global
IMPACT OF CORONA VIRUS SIMILAR TO SOME EARLIER PEAK OIL SCENARIOS No Comments
* Australia
BUSH FIRES CAUSE LOAD SHEDDING IN NEW SOUTH WALES – JANUARY 2020 No Comments
* Australia
AUSTRALIA’S OIL CONSUMPTION HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO EVENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
No Comments
* Asia
UNCERTAINTIES FOLLOWING THE ABQAIQ ATTACK HAVE SHRUNK THE WORLD’S SAFE OIL RESERVES BY AROUND HALF (PART 2) No Comments
* Iran
UNCERTAINTIES FOLLOWING THE ABQAIQ ATTACK HAVE SHRUNK THE WORLD’S SAFE OIL RESERVES BY AROUND HALF (PART 1) No Comments
* Global
THE ATTACKS ON ABQAIQ AND PEAK OIL IN GHAWAR No Comments
* Asia
PEAK OIL IN ASIA: WHERE WILL THE OIL COME FROM FOR THE ASIAN CENTURY? No Comments
* Global
2005-2018 CONVENTIONAL CRUDE PRODUCTION ON A BUMPY PLATEAU – WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM IRAQ No Comments
* BP Statistical Review PERSIAN GULF OIL EXPORT PEAK AFTER TANKER ATTACKS? No Comments
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Iran Update
04 September 2018 11:27 AM | No Comments *
NSW coal power maxed out in hot summer (part 2) 16 March 2018 11:36 PM | No Comments * Howard’s Energy Policy Failure 2004 31 October 2017 12:00 PM | No Comments * Sydney would peak at 4.9 million with zero net overseas migration
27 February 2017 8:17 AM | No Comments * Exxon plans to produce gas close to China’s 9 dash line claim 28 December 2016 7:06 PM | No Comments * Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2) 04 January 2015 9:02 AM | No Comments * Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1) 30 December 2014 9:28 PM | No Comments * Sustainable Cities Master Plan
26 August 2009 9:00 AM | No Comments * How the first phase of peak oil brought Virgin Australia into minus after 2008 03 May 2020 12:57 PM | No Comments * Impact of Corona Virus similar to some earlier peak oil scenarios
10 March 2020 6:00 PM | No Comments * Bush fires cause load shedding in New South Wales – January 2020
04 February 2020 5:05 PM | No Comments * Australia’s oil consumption highly vulnerable to events in the Middle East 12 January 2020 11:28 PM | No Comments * Uncertainties
following the Abqaiq attack have shrunk the world’s safe oil reserves by around half (part 2) 24 October 2019 10:53 PM | No Comments * Uncertainties
following the Abqaiq attack have shrunk the world’s safe oil reserves by around half (part 1) 16 October 2019 9:52 AM | No Comments * The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak oil in Ghawar
01 October 2019 1:25 PM | No Comments * Peak oil in Asia: where will the oil come from for the Asian Century? 10 September 2019 8:51 AM | No Comments * 2005-2018 Conventional crude production on a bumpy plateau – with a little help from Iraq 26 August 2019 10:01 AM | No Comments * Persian Gulf oil export peak after tanker attacks?
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