THE BASEBALL ANALYSTSBASEBALL BEATCHANGE-UPTOUCHING BASESF/X VISUALIZATIONSBEHIND THE SCOREBOARD The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ABSTRACTS FROM THE ABSTRACTS Abstracts From The Abstracts. The 4th Annual Edition by Bill James was expanded from 120 pages in 1979 to 200 in 1980. The book, which is bound for the first time, features a mustard-yellow cover with artwork of an ape contemplating a baseball. The drawing THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: OPTIMAL FASTBALL-CHANGEUP SPEED Here is the run value of a changeup based on how much slower (release speed) it was than the most recent fastball thrown to the batter in the at-bat the changeup was thrown. Changeups thrown before any fastballs were thrown in an at-bat were excluded from this analysis. This suggests that the optimal changeup is between 5% and 12% slower

than

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: HOW NASTY WAS THAT PITCH? As Mike noted the nasty metric does not seem to be related to the speed or movement of a pitch, but the big determinate, it looks to me and Mike, is pitch location at least for fastballs. Here is a smoothed average of the nasty-ness of four-seam fastballs by location for RHBs versus RHPs. Here is LHBs versus RHPs (the other two are here and here

).

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ALL-TIME HOME RUN LOCATION LEADERBOARDS That cut around 20,000 homers. And not all the homers cut were from the 50s. I think the worst year for data on home run location in the retrosheet era (1953-2008) was 1984. The most accurate years are probably during the ‘90s. Anyway, Here’s the diagram retrosheet uses. I coded all three zones left/right of center as pull/opposite

field

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: JACK MCKEON: A STORIED CAREER The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: USING Z-SCORES TO RANK PITCHERS Using standard deviations (4.32% for K, 2.29% for BB, and 6.70% for GB), Ryan created z-scores (which indicate how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean) and then weighted them using the 5:2.5:1 ratios as mentioned above. The latter produced correlations of -0.7228 for ERA and -0.7203 for RA. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAS THE 1990S HOME RUN PRODUCTION These 12 sluggers are the players primarily responsible for the surge in the home run rate in the 1950s and the 1990s. Four hitters are poised to join the club in 2007: Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. It is clear that the production rate of the late 1990s is closer to the trend line than was the rate during the

1950s.

DEVELOPMENT OF COHERENT LASER RADAR AT LINCOLN LABORATORY • GSCHWENDTNER AND KEICHER Development of Coherent Laser Radar at Lincoln Laboratory 384 LINCOLN LABORATORY JOURNAL VOLUME 12, NUMBER 2, 2000 wide-bandwidth (1.5 GHz) copper-doped germa-nium photoconductor for use as a photomixer with a THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PICKING APART THE DRAFT 2000-2004 There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTSBASEBALL BEATCHANGE-UPTOUCHING BASESF/X VISUALIZATIONSBEHIND THE SCOREBOARD The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ABSTRACTS FROM THE ABSTRACTS Abstracts From The Abstracts. The 4th Annual Edition by Bill James was expanded from 120 pages in 1979 to 200 in 1980. The book, which is bound for the first time, features a mustard-yellow cover with artwork of an ape contemplating a baseball. The drawing THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: OPTIMAL FASTBALL-CHANGEUP SPEED Here is the run value of a changeup based on how much slower (release speed) it was than the most recent fastball thrown to the batter in the at-bat the changeup was thrown. Changeups thrown before any fastballs were thrown in an at-bat were excluded from this analysis. This suggests that the optimal changeup is between 5% and 12% slower

than

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: HOW NASTY WAS THAT PITCH? As Mike noted the nasty metric does not seem to be related to the speed or movement of a pitch, but the big determinate, it looks to me and Mike, is pitch location at least for fastballs. Here is a smoothed average of the nasty-ness of four-seam fastballs by location for RHBs versus RHPs. Here is LHBs versus RHPs (the other two are here and here

).

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ALL-TIME HOME RUN LOCATION LEADERBOARDS That cut around 20,000 homers. And not all the homers cut were from the 50s. I think the worst year for data on home run location in the retrosheet era (1953-2008) was 1984. The most accurate years are probably during the ‘90s. Anyway, Here’s the diagram retrosheet uses. I coded all three zones left/right of center as pull/opposite

field

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: JACK MCKEON: A STORIED CAREER The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: USING Z-SCORES TO RANK PITCHERS Using standard deviations (4.32% for K, 2.29% for BB, and 6.70% for GB), Ryan created z-scores (which indicate how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean) and then weighted them using the 5:2.5:1 ratios as mentioned above. The latter produced correlations of -0.7228 for ERA and -0.7203 for RA. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAS THE 1990S HOME RUN PRODUCTION These 12 sluggers are the players primarily responsible for the surge in the home run rate in the 1950s and the 1990s. Four hitters are poised to join the club in 2007: Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. It is clear that the production rate of the late 1990s is closer to the trend line than was the rate during the

1950s.

DEVELOPMENT OF COHERENT LASER RADAR AT LINCOLN LABORATORY • GSCHWENDTNER AND KEICHER Development of Coherent Laser Radar at Lincoln Laboratory 384 LINCOLN LABORATORY JOURNAL VOLUME 12, NUMBER 2, 2000 wide-bandwidth (1.5 GHz) copper-doped germa-nium photoconductor for use as a photomixer with a THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PICKING APART THE DRAFT 2000-2004 There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: COUNT ODDITIES The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PRINT ARCHIVE During the 1942 baseball season, Connie teamed up with Mel Allen to broadcast Giant and Yankee home games over WOR. Connie also worked at WOR in a variety of capacities, including music shows that featured his own singing. Red Barber's assistant broadcaster, Al THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAR AGING CURVES WAR Aging Curves. WAR, short for Wins Above Replacement, is an all-encompassing metric of a player's value. It incorporates hitting, defense, baserunning, durability, and spits out one number. Using Sean Smith's invaluable WAR database, I studied positional player aging. We know that speed and defense peak early and that power and walks peak

late.

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAS THE 1990S HOME RUN PRODUCTION These 12 sluggers are the players primarily responsible for the surge in the home run rate in the 1950s and the 1990s. Four hitters are poised to join the club in 2007: Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. It is clear that the production rate of the late 1990s is closer to the trend line than was the rate during the

1950s.

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: SWINGING, TAKING, FOULING, AND Swinging, Taking, Fouling, and Other Baseball Trivia. By Dan Fox. "It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PAT RISPOLE AND THE 1957 BROOKLYN July 20, 1957 Cubs/Dodgers at Ebbets Field. Twenty-one year old Don Drysdale was the starter and winner in this 7-5 Dodger victory recorded by Pat. The Dodgers scored four runs in the first to overcome a first inning Cub run. Ex-Cub Randy Jackson's solo THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: NL WEST PREVIEW The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WIFFLEBALL '79 To bridge the gap between our stat-based articles, I present to you Wiffleball '79, an entertaining and nostalgic short film directed by Perry Jenkins and Travis Kurtz.The five-minute movie made its YouTube debut yesterday. Travis notified me via email this morning. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: HOW CAN I GET MY HANDS ON THE The Basics. First off Major League Baseball Advanced Baseball (MLBAM) releases the GameDay data (pitchf/x, batted ball, boxscore, etc.) every day in .xml files. For the casual fan it is a bit tricky to find these data. And even once they do each game has its own series of files so pulling out all the data by hand would be a Herculean task. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTSBASEBALL BEATCHANGE-UPTOUCHING BASESF/X VISUALIZATIONSBEHIND THE SCOREBOARD The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ABSTRACTS FROM THE ABSTRACTS Part Four: 1980 Baseball Abstract. The 4th Annual Edition by Bill James was expanded from 120 pages in 1979 to 200 in 1980. The book, which is bound for the first time, features a mustard-yellow cover with artwork of an ape contemplating a baseball. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: COUNT ODDITIES The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: HOW NASTY WAS THAT PITCH? The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: OPTIMAL FASTBALL-CHANGEUP SPEED The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: USING Z-SCORES TO RANK PITCHERS The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ALL-TIME HOME RUN LOCATION LEADERBOARDS Courtesy of Baseball America. First-Round: 1. Pirates (57-105) 2. Mariners (61-101) 3. Diamondbacks (65-97) 4. Orioles (66-96) 5. Royals

(67-95) 6.

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAS THE 1990S HOME RUN PRODUCTION The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) DEVELOPMENT OF COHERENT LASER RADAR AT LINCOLN LABORATORY • GSCHWENDTNER AND KEICHER Development of Coherent Laser Radar at Lincoln Laboratory 384 LINCOLN LABORATORY JOURNAL VOLUME 12, NUMBER 2, 2000 wide-bandwidth (1.5 GHz) copper-doped germa-nium photoconductor for use as a photomixer with a THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PICKING APART THE DRAFT 2000-2004 There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTSBASEBALL BEATCHANGE-UPTOUCHING BASESF/X VISUALIZATIONSBEHIND THE SCOREBOARD The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ABSTRACTS FROM THE ABSTRACTS Part Four: 1980 Baseball Abstract. The 4th Annual Edition by Bill James was expanded from 120 pages in 1979 to 200 in 1980. The book, which is bound for the first time, features a mustard-yellow cover with artwork of an ape contemplating a baseball. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: COUNT ODDITIES The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: HOW NASTY WAS THAT PITCH? The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: OPTIMAL FASTBALL-CHANGEUP SPEED The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: USING Z-SCORES TO RANK PITCHERS The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ALL-TIME HOME RUN LOCATION LEADERBOARDS Courtesy of Baseball America. First-Round: 1. Pirates (57-105) 2. Mariners (61-101) 3. Diamondbacks (65-97) 4. Orioles (66-96) 5. Royals

(67-95) 6.

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAS THE 1990S HOME RUN PRODUCTION The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) DEVELOPMENT OF COHERENT LASER RADAR AT LINCOLN LABORATORY • GSCHWENDTNER AND KEICHER Development of Coherent Laser Radar at Lincoln Laboratory 384 LINCOLN LABORATORY JOURNAL VOLUME 12, NUMBER 2, 2000 wide-bandwidth (1.5 GHz) copper-doped germa-nium photoconductor for use as a photomixer with a THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PICKING APART THE DRAFT 2000-2004 There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: GENERALITIES IN PITCH LOCATION The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: COUNT ODDITIES The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ALL-TIME HOME RUN LOCATION LEADERBOARDS Courtesy of Baseball America. First-Round: 1. Pirates (57-105) 2. Mariners (61-101) 3. Diamondbacks (65-97) 4. Orioles (66-96) 5. Royals

(67-95) 6.

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: OPTIMAL FASTBALL-CHANGEUP SPEED The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: SWINGING, TAKING, FOULING, AND The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAR AGING CURVES The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PAT RISPOLE AND THE 1957 BROOKLYN The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PRINT ARCHIVE Author's Note: Ernie Harwell's birthday is January 25th. When I sat down to start writing this article last month, I had that birthday in

mind as a deadline.

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAR, SALARY, AND SERVICE The Hot Stove League is in full swing, and what better way to dig in than by estimating player salaries. In this post I'll attempt to find a simple relationship between salaries, Wins THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: NL WEST PREVIEW The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTSBASEBALL BEATCHANGE-UPTOUCHING BASESF/X VISUALIZATIONSBEHIND THE SCOREBOARD The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ABSTRACTS FROM THE ABSTRACTS Abstracts From The Abstracts. The 4th Annual Edition by Bill James was expanded from 120 pages in 1979 to 200 in 1980. The book, which is bound for the first time, features a mustard-yellow cover with artwork of an ape contemplating a baseball. The drawing THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: HOW NASTY WAS THAT PITCH? As Mike noted the nasty metric does not seem to be related to the speed or movement of a pitch, but the big determinate, it looks to me and Mike, is pitch location at least for fastballs. Here is a smoothed average of the nasty-ness of four-seam fastballs by location for RHBs versus RHPs. Here is LHBs versus RHPs (the other two are here and here

).

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ALL-TIME HOME RUN LOCATION LEADERBOARDS That cut around 20,000 homers. And not all the homers cut were from the 50s. I think the worst year for data on home run location in the retrosheet era (1953-2008) was 1984. The most accurate years are probably during the ‘90s. Anyway, Here’s the diagram retrosheet uses. I coded all three zones left/right of center as pull/opposite

field

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WIFFLEBALL '79 To bridge the gap between our stat-based articles, I present to you Wiffleball '79, an entertaining and nostalgic short film directed by Perry Jenkins and Travis Kurtz.The five-minute movie made its YouTube debut yesterday. Travis notified me via email this morning. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: USING Z-SCORES TO RANK PITCHERS Using standard deviations (4.32% for K, 2.29% for BB, and 6.70% for GB), Ryan created z-scores (which indicate how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean) and then weighted them using the 5:2.5:1 ratios as mentioned above. The latter produced correlations of -0.7228 for ERA and -0.7203 for RA. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WINNERS NEVER QUIT The book chronicled 15 star athletes who overcame injuries and obstacles with courage, guts, and desire. Each chapter had a subtitle that was an actual quote from another player or coach. Mickey Mantle: "Nobody knew how badly he was hurt." Johnny Unitas: "I'm THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAS THE 1990S HOME RUN PRODUCTION These 12 sluggers are the players primarily responsible for the surge in the home run rate in the 1950s and the 1990s. Four hitters are poised to join the club in 2007: Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. It is clear that the production rate of the late 1990s is closer to the trend line than was the rate during the

1950s.

DEVELOPMENT OF COHERENT LASER RADAR AT LINCOLN LABORATORY • GSCHWENDTNER AND KEICHER Development of Coherent Laser Radar at Lincoln Laboratory 384 LINCOLN LABORATORY JOURNAL VOLUME 12, NUMBER 2, 2000 wide-bandwidth (1.5 GHz) copper-doped germa-nium photoconductor for use as a photomixer with a THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PICKING APART THE DRAFT 2000-2004 There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTSBASEBALL BEATCHANGE-UPTOUCHING BASESF/X VISUALIZATIONSBEHIND THE SCOREBOARD The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ABSTRACTS FROM THE ABSTRACTS Abstracts From The Abstracts. The 4th Annual Edition by Bill James was expanded from 120 pages in 1979 to 200 in 1980. The book, which is bound for the first time, features a mustard-yellow cover with artwork of an ape contemplating a baseball. The drawing THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: HOW NASTY WAS THAT PITCH? As Mike noted the nasty metric does not seem to be related to the speed or movement of a pitch, but the big determinate, it looks to me and Mike, is pitch location at least for fastballs. Here is a smoothed average of the nasty-ness of four-seam fastballs by location for RHBs versus RHPs. Here is LHBs versus RHPs (the other two are here and here

).

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ALL-TIME HOME RUN LOCATION LEADERBOARDS That cut around 20,000 homers. And not all the homers cut were from the 50s. I think the worst year for data on home run location in the retrosheet era (1953-2008) was 1984. The most accurate years are probably during the ‘90s. Anyway, Here’s the diagram retrosheet uses. I coded all three zones left/right of center as pull/opposite

field

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WIFFLEBALL '79 To bridge the gap between our stat-based articles, I present to you Wiffleball '79, an entertaining and nostalgic short film directed by Perry Jenkins and Travis Kurtz.The five-minute movie made its YouTube debut yesterday. Travis notified me via email this morning. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: USING Z-SCORES TO RANK PITCHERS Using standard deviations (4.32% for K, 2.29% for BB, and 6.70% for GB), Ryan created z-scores (which indicate how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean) and then weighted them using the 5:2.5:1 ratios as mentioned above. The latter produced correlations of -0.7228 for ERA and -0.7203 for RA. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WINNERS NEVER QUIT The book chronicled 15 star athletes who overcame injuries and obstacles with courage, guts, and desire. Each chapter had a subtitle that was an actual quote from another player or coach. Mickey Mantle: "Nobody knew how badly he was hurt." Johnny Unitas: "I'm THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAS THE 1990S HOME RUN PRODUCTION These 12 sluggers are the players primarily responsible for the surge in the home run rate in the 1950s and the 1990s. Four hitters are poised to join the club in 2007: Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. It is clear that the production rate of the late 1990s is closer to the trend line than was the rate during the

1950s.

DEVELOPMENT OF COHERENT LASER RADAR AT LINCOLN LABORATORY • GSCHWENDTNER AND KEICHER Development of Coherent Laser Radar at Lincoln Laboratory 384 LINCOLN LABORATORY JOURNAL VOLUME 12, NUMBER 2, 2000 wide-bandwidth (1.5 GHz) copper-doped germa-nium photoconductor for use as a photomixer with a THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PICKING APART THE DRAFT 2000-2004 There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: COUNT ODDITIES The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: OPTIMAL FASTBALL-CHANGEUP SPEED Here is the run value of a changeup based on how much slower (release speed) it was than the most recent fastball thrown to the batter in the at-bat the changeup was thrown. Changeups thrown before any fastballs were thrown in an at-bat were excluded from this analysis. This suggests that the optimal changeup is between 5% and 12% slower

than

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ALL-TIME HOME RUN LOCATION LEADERBOARDS That cut around 20,000 homers. And not all the homers cut were from the 50s. I think the worst year for data on home run location in the retrosheet era (1953-2008) was 1984. The most accurate years are probably during the ‘90s. Anyway, Here’s the diagram retrosheet uses. I coded all three zones left/right of center as pull/opposite

field

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PRINT ARCHIVE During the 1942 baseball season, Connie teamed up with Mel Allen to broadcast Giant and Yankee home games over WOR. Connie also worked at WOR in a variety of capacities, including music shows that featured his own singing. Red Barber's assistant broadcaster, Al THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: GENERALITIES IN PITCH LOCATION Once again, excluding pitches from outside the strike zone, 10% are thrown to the upper-third, while 15% are thrown to the lower-third. Including the pitches outside the strike zone, 24% are thrown to the "high" and 40% are thrown "low." While the league averages are good to THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WIFFLEBALL '79 To bridge the gap between our stat-based articles, I present to you Wiffleball '79, an entertaining and nostalgic short film directed by Perry Jenkins and Travis Kurtz.The five-minute movie made its YouTube debut yesterday. Travis notified me via email this morning. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: SWINGING, TAKING, FOULING, AND Swinging, Taking, Fouling, and Other Baseball Trivia. By Dan Fox. "It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: NL WEST PREVIEW The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAR, SALARY, AND SERVICE The model I estimated can be boiled down to three equations - one for each level of service . Here I'll present the results for 2008: When under team control: Salary = .51 + WAR*.001. When Arb eligible: Salary = 2.26 + WAR*.31. When FA eligible: Salary = 5.53 + WAR*1.23. The $500,000 salary of pre-arbitration players seems reasonable. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PAT RISPOLE AND THE 1957 BROOKLYN July 20, 1957 Cubs/Dodgers at Ebbets Field. Twenty-one year old Don Drysdale was the starter and winner in this 7-5 Dodger victory recorded by Pat. The Dodgers scored four runs in the first to overcome a first inning Cub run. Ex-Cub Randy Jackson's solo THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: COUNT ODDITIES The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: HOW NASTY WAS THAT PITCH? As Mike noted the nasty metric does not seem to be related to the speed or movement of a pitch, but the big determinate, it looks to me and Mike, is pitch location at least for fastballs. Here is a smoothed average of the nasty-ness of four-seam fastballs by location for RHBs versus RHPs. Here is LHBs versus RHPs (the other two are here and here

).

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: USING Z-SCORES TO RANK PITCHERS Using standard deviations (4.32% for K, 2.29% for BB, and 6.70% for GB), Ryan created z-scores (which indicate how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean) and then weighted them using the 5:2.5:1 ratios as mentioned above. The latter produced correlations of -0.7228 for ERA and -0.7203 for RA. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PRINT ARCHIVE During the 1942 baseball season, Connie teamed up with Mel Allen to broadcast Giant and Yankee home games over WOR. Connie also worked at WOR in a variety of capacities, including music shows that featured his own singing. Red Barber's assistant broadcaster, Al THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: GENERALITIES IN PITCH LOCATION Once again, excluding pitches from outside the strike zone, 10% are thrown to the upper-third, while 15% are thrown to the lower-third. Including the pitches outside the strike zone, 24% are thrown to the "high" and 40% are thrown "low." While the league averages are good to THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WIFFLEBALL '79 To bridge the gap between our stat-based articles, I present to you Wiffleball '79, an entertaining and nostalgic short film directed by Perry Jenkins and Travis Kurtz.The five-minute movie made its YouTube debut yesterday. Travis notified me via email this morning. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: NL WEST PREVIEW The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WINNERS NEVER QUIT The book chronicled 15 star athletes who overcame injuries and obstacles with courage, guts, and desire. Each chapter had a subtitle that was an actual quote from another player or coach. Mickey Mantle: "Nobody knew how badly he was hurt." Johnny Unitas: "I'm THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAS THE 1990S HOME RUN PRODUCTION These 12 sluggers are the players primarily responsible for the surge in the home run rate in the 1950s and the 1990s. Four hitters are poised to join the club in 2007: Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. It is clear that the production rate of the late 1990s is closer to the trend line than was the rate during the

1950s.

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PICKING APART THE DRAFT 2000-2004 There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: COUNT ODDITIES The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: HOW NASTY WAS THAT PITCH? As Mike noted the nasty metric does not seem to be related to the speed or movement of a pitch, but the big determinate, it looks to me and Mike, is pitch location at least for fastballs. Here is a smoothed average of the nasty-ness of four-seam fastballs by location for RHBs versus RHPs. Here is LHBs versus RHPs (the other two are here and here

).

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: USING Z-SCORES TO RANK PITCHERS Using standard deviations (4.32% for K, 2.29% for BB, and 6.70% for GB), Ryan created z-scores (which indicate how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean) and then weighted them using the 5:2.5:1 ratios as mentioned above. The latter produced correlations of -0.7228 for ERA and -0.7203 for RA. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PRINT ARCHIVE During the 1942 baseball season, Connie teamed up with Mel Allen to broadcast Giant and Yankee home games over WOR. Connie also worked at WOR in a variety of capacities, including music shows that featured his own singing. Red Barber's assistant broadcaster, Al THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: GENERALITIES IN PITCH LOCATION Once again, excluding pitches from outside the strike zone, 10% are thrown to the upper-third, while 15% are thrown to the lower-third. Including the pitches outside the strike zone, 24% are thrown to the "high" and 40% are thrown "low." While the league averages are good to THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WIFFLEBALL '79 To bridge the gap between our stat-based articles, I present to you Wiffleball '79, an entertaining and nostalgic short film directed by Perry Jenkins and Travis Kurtz.The five-minute movie made its YouTube debut yesterday. Travis notified me via email this morning. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: NL WEST PREVIEW The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WINNERS NEVER QUIT The book chronicled 15 star athletes who overcame injuries and obstacles with courage, guts, and desire. Each chapter had a subtitle that was an actual quote from another player or coach. Mickey Mantle: "Nobody knew how badly he was hurt." Johnny Unitas: "I'm THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAS THE 1990S HOME RUN PRODUCTION These 12 sluggers are the players primarily responsible for the surge in the home run rate in the 1950s and the 1990s. Four hitters are poised to join the club in 2007: Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. It is clear that the production rate of the late 1990s is closer to the trend line than was the rate during the

1950s.

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PICKING APART THE DRAFT 2000-2004 There is a perception among baseball fans that the first round of the June Amateur Draft is foolproof – or that it should be foolproof. In a series of upcoming articles I am going to take a look at just how successful teams have been drafting with the first 10 picks of the draft in recent years, starting in 2000 and ending in 2004. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: THE WORLD OF CATCHER'S INTERFERENCE Baseball's all-time catcher's interference king is Pete Rose, who reached on catcher's interference 29 times in his career. His first one came on August 8, 1963 when Clay Dalrymple of the Phillies was nailed for it. Rose's final catcher's interference came over 22 years later on September 19, 1985 when Larry Owen of the Braves was called

for it

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: COUNT ODDITIES The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PRINT ARCHIVE During the 1942 baseball season, Connie teamed up with Mel Allen to broadcast Giant and Yankee home games over WOR. Connie also worked at WOR in a variety of capacities, including music shows that featured his own singing. Red Barber's assistant broadcaster, Al THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: OPTIMAL FASTBALL-CHANGEUP SPEED Here is the run value of a changeup based on how much slower (release speed) it was than the most recent fastball thrown to the batter in the at-bat the changeup was thrown. Changeups thrown before any fastballs were thrown in an at-bat were excluded from this analysis. This suggests that the optimal changeup is between 5% and 12% slower

than

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: SWINGING, TAKING, FOULING, AND Swinging, Taking, Fouling, and Other Baseball Trivia. By Dan Fox. "It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: NL WEST PREVIEW The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: WAR, SALARY, AND SERVICE The model I estimated can be boiled down to three equations - one for each level of service . Here I'll present the results for 2008: When under team control: Salary = .51 + WAR*.001. When Arb eligible: Salary = 2.26 + WAR*.31. When FA eligible: Salary = 5.53 + WAR*1.23. The $500,000 salary of pre-arbitration players seems reasonable. THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: ALL-TIME HOME RUN LOCATION LEADERBOARDS That cut around 20,000 homers. And not all the homers cut were from the 50s. I think the worst year for data on home run location in the retrosheet era (1953-2008) was 1984. The most accurate years are probably during the ‘90s. Anyway, Here’s the diagram retrosheet uses. I coded all three zones left/right of center as pull/opposite

field

THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: PAT RISPOLE AND THE 1957 BROOKLYN July 20, 1957 Cubs/Dodgers at Ebbets Field. Twenty-one year old Don Drysdale was the starter and winner in this 7-5 Dodger victory recorded by Pat. The Dodgers scored four runs in the first to overcome a first inning Cub run. Ex-Cub Randy Jackson's solo THE BASEBALL ANALYSTS: MONEY ISN'T EVERYTHING The Odd Couple (with Alex Belth) The Most Under Over Underrated Player in Baseball (with Brian Gunn) Three Wise Men (roundtable by Alex Belth) Infrequently Asked Questions (interview with Matt Welch) Interview (Orioles Think Tank) Bernie and the Yanks (Bronx Banter) Hope and Faith: How the LAA Win the World Series (Baseball Prospectus) NL West (The Soul of Baseball) *Examining the Past, Present, and Future*

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2011 Draft Order

_Courtesy of Baseball America_

First-Round:

1. Pirates (57-105) 2. Mariners (61-101) 3. Diamondbacks (65-97) 4. Orioles (66-96)

5. Royals (67-95)

6. Nationals (69-93) 7. Diamondbacks (for B. Loux) 8. Indians (69-93)

9. Cubs (75-87)

10. Padres (for Karsten Whitson) 11. Astros (76-86) 12. Brewers (77-85)

13. Mets (79-83)

14. Marlins (80-82) 15. Brewers (for Dylan Covey) 16. Dodgers (80-82) 17. Angels (80-82) 18. Athletics (81-81) 19. Red Sox (from DET for Martinez) 20. Rockies (83-79) 21. Blue Jays (85-77) 22. Cardinals (86-76) 23. Nationals (from CWS for Dunn) 24. Rays (from BOS for Crawford) 25. Padres (90-72) 26. Red Sox (from TEX for Beltre)

27. Reds (91-71)

28. Braves (91-71) 29. Giants (92-70)

30. Twins (94-68)

31. Rays (from NYY for Soriano)

32. Rays (96-66)

33. Rangers (from PHI for Lee) Supplemental First Round: 34. Nationals (Dunn) 35. Blue Jays (Downs) 36. Red Sox (Martinez)

37. Rangers (Lee)

38. Rays (Crawford) 39. Phillies (Werth) 40. Red Sox (Beltre) 41. Rays (Soriano) 42. Rays (Balfour) 43. Diamondbacks (LaRoche) 44. Mets (Feliciano) 45. Rockies (Dotel) 46. Blue Jays (Buck) 47. White Sox (Putz) 48. Padres (Garland) 49. Giants (Uribe) 50. Twins (Hudson) 51. Yankees (Vazquez)

52. Rays (Benoit)

53. Blue Jays (Olivo) 54. Padres (Torrealba)

55. Twins (Crain)

56. Rays (Choate)

57. Blue Jays (Gregg) 58. Padres (Correia)

59. Rays (Hawpe)