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When “fits and starts” is the most efficient path. September 19, 2018 By Jason 4 Comments. When you go full-speed in one direction for a hot minute, then slam on the brakes and do something else, and keep doing that, and it’s actually the correct course of action. THE UNFORTUNATE MATH BEHIND CONSULTING COMPANIES That changes the annual cost of your employee from $60,000 to $69,000 with an associated change in hourly cost: 20 WD/month, $36/hour. We’ve assumed an 8-hour work day, but any owner of a consulting company will tell you this rarely happens. Oh sure, BRITTLENESS COMES FROM “ONE THING” Brittleness comes from “One Thing”. Jason · Nov 7, 2017 · 4 Comments. Tweet. Tweet this. We’re tired of hearing how small software companies usually fail. The data show that the two most common causes are: (1) Product isn’t useful to enough people, and (2) Problems with the team. But what about the companies that die eventhough they
HOW DO YOU TELL A NON-TECHNICAL PERSON THAT THEY CAN’T Frustrated Engineer writes: I've been writing code for ten years, recently promoted to a position where I have to talk to our non-technical customers. They want to use our software or customize things in ways that are technically impossible, but I don't know how to communicate this to them. They don't even know how little SATISFICING VS MAXIMIZING Satisficing vs Maximizing. “Maximizing” means expending time and effort to ensure you’ve solved something as best as possible. It requires exploration and analysis to ensure “the best” option hasn’t been overlooked, and that we have confidence in our evaluation of all options. “Satisficing” means picking the firstoption that
WHY IT’S NICE TO COMPETE AGAINST A LARGE, PROFITABLE COMPANY A big, profitable company seems like the hardest thing for a small company to compete against. They have everything: money, brand, momentum, existing customers, press, product teams, distribution channels, expertise, market insight, analysts, sales offices, product features, and, by definition, a working business model. All the little startup has is a decent idea and extremely SSEBITDA – A STEADY-STATE PROFIT METRIC FOR SAAS COMPANIES SSEBITDA – A steady-state profit metric for SaaS companies. This is the fourth article in a series on novel ideas for SaaS metrics, which started with The unprofitable SaaS business model trap, COC: a new metric for cancellations, and The mistake of 1/c in LTV. Its tough for a growing SaaS business to ascertain whether or not it’s truly AVOIDING THE TRAP OF LOW-KNOWLEDGE, HIGH-CONFIDENCE THEORIES Avoiding the trap of low-knowledge, high-confidence theories. We’ve all laughed at detailed renderings of constellations overlaying a paltry set of stars that are in fact quasi-random. Like Fornax, which is just three stars: But which humans have no trouble rendering as an intricate sequence of machinery: It would be funny, if this natural THE UNPROFITABLE SAAS BUSINESS MODEL TRAP The unprofitable SaaS business model trap. Marketo filed for IPO with impressive 80% year-over-year growth in 2012, with almost $60m in revenue. Except, they lost $35m. WTF? It’s not impressive when you spend $1.60 for every $1.00 of revenue, forceCOLOR WHEELS
If you stand close to a CRT (non-flat-screen), you can see that every pixel (or “dot”) is really three tightly-packed colored phosphors: red, green, and blue. If you’ve done computer graphics you’ve been forced to name colors using these “RGB color values;” true geeks automatically think “yellow” when they see #FFFF00.@ASMARTBEAR
When “fits and starts” is the most efficient path. September 19, 2018 By Jason 4 Comments. When you go full-speed in one direction for a hot minute, then slam on the brakes and do something else, and keep doing that, and it’s actually the correct course of action. THE UNFORTUNATE MATH BEHIND CONSULTING COMPANIES That changes the annual cost of your employee from $60,000 to $69,000 with an associated change in hourly cost: 20 WD/month, $36/hour. We’ve assumed an 8-hour work day, but any owner of a consulting company will tell you this rarely happens. Oh sure, BRITTLENESS COMES FROM “ONE THING” Brittleness comes from “One Thing”. Jason · Nov 7, 2017 · 4 Comments. Tweet. Tweet this. We’re tired of hearing how small software companies usually fail. The data show that the two most common causes are: (1) Product isn’t useful to enough people, and (2) Problems with the team. But what about the companies that die eventhough they
HOW DO YOU TELL A NON-TECHNICAL PERSON THAT THEY CAN’T Frustrated Engineer writes: I've been writing code for ten years, recently promoted to a position where I have to talk to our non-technical customers. They want to use our software or customize things in ways that are technically impossible, but I don't know how to communicate this to them. They don't even know how little SATISFICING VS MAXIMIZING Satisficing vs Maximizing. “Maximizing” means expending time and effort to ensure you’ve solved something as best as possible. It requires exploration and analysis to ensure “the best” option hasn’t been overlooked, and that we have confidence in our evaluation of all options. “Satisficing” means picking the firstoption that
WHY IT’S NICE TO COMPETE AGAINST A LARGE, PROFITABLE COMPANY A big, profitable company seems like the hardest thing for a small company to compete against. They have everything: money, brand, momentum, existing customers, press, product teams, distribution channels, expertise, market insight, analysts, sales offices, product features, and, by definition, a working business model. All the little startup has is a decent idea and extremely SSEBITDA – A STEADY-STATE PROFIT METRIC FOR SAAS COMPANIES SSEBITDA – A steady-state profit metric for SaaS companies. This is the fourth article in a series on novel ideas for SaaS metrics, which started with The unprofitable SaaS business model trap, COC: a new metric for cancellations, and The mistake of 1/c in LTV. Its tough for a growing SaaS business to ascertain whether or not it’s truly AVOIDING THE TRAP OF LOW-KNOWLEDGE, HIGH-CONFIDENCE THEORIES Avoiding the trap of low-knowledge, high-confidence theories. We’ve all laughed at detailed renderings of constellations overlaying a paltry set of stars that are in fact quasi-random. Like Fornax, which is just three stars: But which humans have no trouble rendering as an intricate sequence of machinery: It would be funny, if this natural THE UNPROFITABLE SAAS BUSINESS MODEL TRAP The unprofitable SaaS business model trap. Marketo filed for IPO with impressive 80% year-over-year growth in 2012, with almost $60m in revenue. Except, they lost $35m. WTF? It’s not impressive when you spend $1.60 for every $1.00 of revenue, forceCOLOR WHEELS
If you stand close to a CRT (non-flat-screen), you can see that every pixel (or “dot”) is really three tightly-packed colored phosphors: red, green, and blue. If you’ve done computer graphics you’ve been forced to name colors using these “RGB color values;” true geeks automatically think “yellow” when they see #FFFF00. FINDING THE RIGHT ADVICE Finding the right advice. One thing we’ve learned from the diet crazes since the 1980s is that every single thing has been alternately touted as healthy or poison. No-fat, carb-heavy. Scratch that, no-carb, fat doesn’t matter. Scratch that, it’s only about low HOW TO MEASURE THE ACCURACY OF FORECASTS How do you hold forecasters accountable, when the forecast is only a probability? The answer appears tricky, then simple, then tricky again, then ends up being simple enough to answer it with Google Spreadsheets. It's a journey worth taking, because building better forecasts is invaluable for businesses: Take lead scoring — puttinga value on
SSEBITDA – A STEADY-STATE PROFIT METRIC FOR SAAS COMPANIES SSEBITDA – A steady-state profit metric for SaaS companies. This is the fourth article in a series on novel ideas for SaaS metrics, which started with The unprofitable SaaS business model trap, COC: a new metric for cancellations, and The mistake of 1/c in LTV. Its tough for a growing SaaS business to ascertain whether or not it’s truly THE RISE OF THE “SUCCESSFUL” UNSUSTAINABLE COMPANY Witness, for example, this terrific Fast Company article on Bill Nguyen, serial entrepreneur who’s seventh startup “Color” famously raised $41m for a new mobile app before it even launched.(The launch, by the way, was a failure. And it’s now bankrupt.) Outspoken investor Paul Kedrosky characterizes Color’s reputation: “It’s become a punch line. A SCORECARD: SHOULD A DECISION BE FAST, OR SLOW? A Scorecard: Should a decision be fast, or slow? We all know that startups should make decisions quickly. Fast decisions leads to rapid action, which accelerates the loop of production and feedback, which is how you outpace and out-learn a competitor, even one that already has a lead. But some decisions should not be made in haste, like a keyCOLOR WHEELS
If you stand close to a CRT (non-flat-screen), you can see that every pixel (or “dot”) is really three tightly-packed colored phosphors: red, green, and blue. If you’ve done computer graphics you’ve been forced to name colors using these “RGB color values;” true geeks automatically think “yellow” when they see #FFFF00. DEEP DIVE: CANCELLATION RATE IN SAAS BUSINESS MODELS "Cancellation rate" and its cousin LTV is either the #1 or #2 most important metric for every business with recurring revenue (second *perhaps* only to new customer acquisition). Here I expound on my theory of cancellation rate -- why it's so vital, various definitions, and some interesting math. AVOIDING COMMON DATA-INTERPRETATION ERRORS The data are perfectly related, but not linear. Applying typical linear statistics is just wrong. The data are perfectly linear, with one outlier. Probably the outlier should be ignored, and the best-fit line should reflect the other points. The data don’t vary at all in the x direction, except for an outlier which probably should beignored.
THE FUNDAMENTAL LESSON OF THE FORCES GOVERNING SCALING The fundamental lesson of the forces governing scaling startups. Idealistic founders believe they will break the mold when they scale, and not turn into a “typical big company.”. By which they mean: Without stupid rules that assume employees are dumb or evil, without everything taking ten times longer than it should, withoutwall-to-wall
HOW TO THINK ABOUT CASH VS. EQUITY COMPENSATION 3. Flexibility of work and fun at work. 4. Make millions in year 5 ;-) Options vest every month. Option pricing and break up were done professionally by a lawyer (who got cash :) Options are based on what team members contribute to the product and team. Amount of options is not very large, about 1-2% of total equity.@ASMARTBEAR
When “fits and starts” is the most efficient path. September 19, 2018 By Jason 4 Comments. When you go full-speed in one direction for a hot minute, then slam on the brakes and do something else, and keep doing that, and it’s actually the correct course of action. THE UNFORTUNATE MATH BEHIND CONSULTING COMPANIES That changes the annual cost of your employee from $60,000 to $69,000 with an associated change in hourly cost: 20 WD/month, $36/hour. We’ve assumed an 8-hour work day, but any owner of a consulting company will tell you this rarely happens. Oh sure, BRITTLENESS COMES FROM “ONE THING” Brittleness comes from “One Thing”. Jason · Nov 7, 2017 · 4 Comments. Tweet. Tweet this. We’re tired of hearing how small software companies usually fail. The data show that the two most common causes are: (1) Product isn’t useful to enough people, and (2) Problems with the team. But what about the companies that die eventhough they
HOW DO YOU TELL A NON-TECHNICAL PERSON THAT THEY CAN’T Frustrated Engineer writes: I've been writing code for ten years, recently promoted to a position where I have to talk to our non-technical customers. They want to use our software or customize things in ways that are technically impossible, but I don't know how to communicate this to them. They don't even know how little SATISFICING VS MAXIMIZING Satisficing vs Maximizing. “Maximizing” means expending time and effort to ensure you’ve solved something as best as possible. It requires exploration and analysis to ensure “the best” option hasn’t been overlooked, and that we have confidence in our evaluation of all options. “Satisficing” means picking the firstoption that
WHY IT’S NICE TO COMPETE AGAINST A LARGE, PROFITABLE COMPANY A big, profitable company seems like the hardest thing for a small company to compete against. They have everything: money, brand, momentum, existing customers, press, product teams, distribution channels, expertise, market insight, analysts, sales offices, product features, and, by definition, a working business model. All the little startup has is a decent idea and extremely SSEBITDA – A STEADY-STATE PROFIT METRIC FOR SAAS COMPANIES SSEBITDA – A steady-state profit metric for SaaS companies. This is the fourth article in a series on novel ideas for SaaS metrics, which started with The unprofitable SaaS business model trap, COC: a new metric for cancellations, and The mistake of 1/c in LTV. Its tough for a growing SaaS business to ascertain whether or not it’s truly AVOIDING THE TRAP OF LOW-KNOWLEDGE, HIGH-CONFIDENCE THEORIES Avoiding the trap of low-knowledge, high-confidence theories. We’ve all laughed at detailed renderings of constellations overlaying a paltry set of stars that are in fact quasi-random. Like Fornax, which is just three stars: But which humans have no trouble rendering as an intricate sequence of machinery: It would be funny, if this natural THE UNPROFITABLE SAAS BUSINESS MODEL TRAP The unprofitable SaaS business model trap. Marketo filed for IPO with impressive 80% year-over-year growth in 2012, with almost $60m in revenue. Except, they lost $35m. WTF? It’s not impressive when you spend $1.60 for every $1.00 of revenue, forceCOLOR WHEELS
If you stand close to a CRT (non-flat-screen), you can see that every pixel (or “dot”) is really three tightly-packed colored phosphors: red, green, and blue. If you’ve done computer graphics you’ve been forced to name colors using these “RGB color values;” true geeks automatically think “yellow” when they see #FFFF00.@ASMARTBEAR
When “fits and starts” is the most efficient path. September 19, 2018 By Jason 4 Comments. When you go full-speed in one direction for a hot minute, then slam on the brakes and do something else, and keep doing that, and it’s actually the correct course of action. THE UNFORTUNATE MATH BEHIND CONSULTING COMPANIES That changes the annual cost of your employee from $60,000 to $69,000 with an associated change in hourly cost: 20 WD/month, $36/hour. We’ve assumed an 8-hour work day, but any owner of a consulting company will tell you this rarely happens. Oh sure, BRITTLENESS COMES FROM “ONE THING” Brittleness comes from “One Thing”. Jason · Nov 7, 2017 · 4 Comments. Tweet. Tweet this. We’re tired of hearing how small software companies usually fail. The data show that the two most common causes are: (1) Product isn’t useful to enough people, and (2) Problems with the team. But what about the companies that die eventhough they
HOW DO YOU TELL A NON-TECHNICAL PERSON THAT THEY CAN’T Frustrated Engineer writes: I've been writing code for ten years, recently promoted to a position where I have to talk to our non-technical customers. They want to use our software or customize things in ways that are technically impossible, but I don't know how to communicate this to them. They don't even know how little SATISFICING VS MAXIMIZING Satisficing vs Maximizing. “Maximizing” means expending time and effort to ensure you’ve solved something as best as possible. It requires exploration and analysis to ensure “the best” option hasn’t been overlooked, and that we have confidence in our evaluation of all options. “Satisficing” means picking the firstoption that
WHY IT’S NICE TO COMPETE AGAINST A LARGE, PROFITABLE COMPANY A big, profitable company seems like the hardest thing for a small company to compete against. They have everything: money, brand, momentum, existing customers, press, product teams, distribution channels, expertise, market insight, analysts, sales offices, product features, and, by definition, a working business model. All the little startup has is a decent idea and extremely SSEBITDA – A STEADY-STATE PROFIT METRIC FOR SAAS COMPANIES SSEBITDA – A steady-state profit metric for SaaS companies. This is the fourth article in a series on novel ideas for SaaS metrics, which started with The unprofitable SaaS business model trap, COC: a new metric for cancellations, and The mistake of 1/c in LTV. Its tough for a growing SaaS business to ascertain whether or not it’s truly AVOIDING THE TRAP OF LOW-KNOWLEDGE, HIGH-CONFIDENCE THEORIES Avoiding the trap of low-knowledge, high-confidence theories. We’ve all laughed at detailed renderings of constellations overlaying a paltry set of stars that are in fact quasi-random. Like Fornax, which is just three stars: But which humans have no trouble rendering as an intricate sequence of machinery: It would be funny, if this natural THE UNPROFITABLE SAAS BUSINESS MODEL TRAP The unprofitable SaaS business model trap. Marketo filed for IPO with impressive 80% year-over-year growth in 2012, with almost $60m in revenue. Except, they lost $35m. WTF? It’s not impressive when you spend $1.60 for every $1.00 of revenue, forceCOLOR WHEELS
If you stand close to a CRT (non-flat-screen), you can see that every pixel (or “dot”) is really three tightly-packed colored phosphors: red, green, and blue. If you’ve done computer graphics you’ve been forced to name colors using these “RGB color values;” true geeks automatically think “yellow” when they see #FFFF00. FINDING THE RIGHT ADVICE Finding the right advice. One thing we’ve learned from the diet crazes since the 1980s is that every single thing has been alternately touted as healthy or poison. No-fat, carb-heavy. Scratch that, no-carb, fat doesn’t matter. Scratch that, it’s only about low HOW TO MEASURE THE ACCURACY OF FORECASTS How do you hold forecasters accountable, when the forecast is only a probability? The answer appears tricky, then simple, then tricky again, then ends up being simple enough to answer it with Google Spreadsheets. It's a journey worth taking, because building better forecasts is invaluable for businesses: Take lead scoring — puttinga value on
SSEBITDA – A STEADY-STATE PROFIT METRIC FOR SAAS COMPANIES SSEBITDA – A steady-state profit metric for SaaS companies. This is the fourth article in a series on novel ideas for SaaS metrics, which started with The unprofitable SaaS business model trap, COC: a new metric for cancellations, and The mistake of 1/c in LTV. Its tough for a growing SaaS business to ascertain whether or not it’s truly THE RISE OF THE “SUCCESSFUL” UNSUSTAINABLE COMPANY Witness, for example, this terrific Fast Company article on Bill Nguyen, serial entrepreneur who’s seventh startup “Color” famously raised $41m for a new mobile app before it even launched.(The launch, by the way, was a failure. And it’s now bankrupt.) Outspoken investor Paul Kedrosky characterizes Color’s reputation: “It’s become a punch line. A SCORECARD: SHOULD A DECISION BE FAST, OR SLOW? A Scorecard: Should a decision be fast, or slow? We all know that startups should make decisions quickly. Fast decisions leads to rapid action, which accelerates the loop of production and feedback, which is how you outpace and out-learn a competitor, even one that already has a lead. But some decisions should not be made in haste, like a keyCOLOR WHEELS
If you stand close to a CRT (non-flat-screen), you can see that every pixel (or “dot”) is really three tightly-packed colored phosphors: red, green, and blue. If you’ve done computer graphics you’ve been forced to name colors using these “RGB color values;” true geeks automatically think “yellow” when they see #FFFF00. DEEP DIVE: CANCELLATION RATE IN SAAS BUSINESS MODELS "Cancellation rate" and its cousin LTV is either the #1 or #2 most important metric for every business with recurring revenue (second *perhaps* only to new customer acquisition). Here I expound on my theory of cancellation rate -- why it's so vital, various definitions, and some interesting math. AVOIDING COMMON DATA-INTERPRETATION ERRORS The data are perfectly related, but not linear. Applying typical linear statistics is just wrong. The data are perfectly linear, with one outlier. Probably the outlier should be ignored, and the best-fit line should reflect the other points. The data don’t vary at all in the x direction, except for an outlier which probably should beignored.
THE FUNDAMENTAL LESSON OF THE FORCES GOVERNING SCALING The fundamental lesson of the forces governing scaling startups. Idealistic founders believe they will break the mold when they scale, and not turn into a “typical big company.”. By which they mean: Without stupid rules that assume employees are dumb or evil, without everything taking ten times longer than it should, withoutwall-to-wall
HOW TO THINK ABOUT CASH VS. EQUITY COMPENSATION 3. Flexibility of work and fun at work. 4. Make millions in year 5 ;-) Options vest every month. Option pricing and break up were done professionally by a lawyer (who got cash :) Options are based on what team members contribute to the product and team. Amount of options is not very large, about 1-2% of total equity. FINDING THE RIGHT ADVICE Finding the right advice. One thing we’ve learned from the diet crazes since the 1980s is that every single thing has been alternately touted as healthy or poison. No-fat, carb-heavy. Scratch that, no-carb, fat doesn’t matter. Scratch that, it’s only about low@ASMARTBEAR
When “fits and starts” is the most efficient path. September 19, 2018 By Jason 4 Comments. When you go full-speed in one direction for a hot minute, then slam on the brakes and do something else, and keep doing that, and it’s actually the correct course of action. HOW TO MEASURE THE ACCURACY OF FORECASTS How do you hold forecasters accountable, when the forecast is only a probability? The answer appears tricky, then simple, then tricky again, then ends up being simple enough to answer it with Google Spreadsheets. It's a journey worth taking, because building better forecasts is invaluable for businesses: Take lead scoring — puttinga value on
HOW DO YOU TELL A NON-TECHNICAL PERSON THAT THEY CAN’T Frustrated Engineer writes: I've been writing code for ten years, recently promoted to a position where I have to talk to our non-technical customers. They want to use our software or customize things in ways that are technically impossible, but I don't know how to communicate this to them. They don't even know how little BRITTLENESS COMES FROM “ONE THING” Brittleness comes from “One Thing”. Jason · Nov 7, 2017 · 4 Comments. Tweet. Tweet this. We’re tired of hearing how small software companies usually fail. The data show that the two most common causes are: (1) Product isn’t useful to enough people, and (2) Problems with the team. But what about the companies that die eventhough they
WHY IT’S NICE TO COMPETE AGAINST A LARGE, PROFITABLE COMPANY A big, profitable company seems like the hardest thing for a small company to compete against. They have everything: money, brand, momentum, existing customers, press, product teams, distribution channels, expertise, market insight, analysts, sales offices, product features, and, by definition, a working business model. All the little startup has is a decent idea and extremely SATISFICING VS MAXIMIZING "Maximizing" means expending time and effort to ensure you've solved something as best as possible. It typically needs lots of exploration and analysis to ensure "the best" option hasn't been overlooked, and that we have confidence in our evaluation of all options. "Satisficing" means picking the first option that satisfies some givencriteria.
THE UNPROFITABLE SAAS BUSINESS MODEL TRAP The unprofitable SaaS business model trap. Marketo filed for IPO with impressive 80% year-over-year growth in 2012, with almost $60m in revenue. Except, they lost $35m. WTF? It’s not impressive when you spend $1.60 for every $1.00 of revenue, force AVOIDING THE TRAP OF LOW-KNOWLEDGE, HIGH-CONFIDENCE THEORIES Avoiding the trap of low-knowledge, high-confidence theories. We’ve all laughed at detailed renderings of constellations overlaying a paltry set of stars that are in fact quasi-random. Like Fornax, which is just three stars: But which humans have no trouble rendering as an intricate sequence of machinery: It would be funny, if this naturalCOLOR WHEELS
If you stand close to a CRT (non-flat-screen), you can see that every pixel (or “dot”) is really three tightly-packed colored phosphors: red, green, and blue. If you’ve done computer graphics you’ve been forced to name colors using these “RGB color values;” true geeks automatically think “yellow” when they see #FFFF00. FINDING THE RIGHT ADVICE Finding the right advice. One thing we’ve learned from the diet crazes since the 1980s is that every single thing has been alternately touted as healthy or poison. No-fat, carb-heavy. Scratch that, no-carb, fat doesn’t matter. Scratch that, it’s only about low@ASMARTBEAR
When “fits and starts” is the most efficient path. September 19, 2018 By Jason 4 Comments. When you go full-speed in one direction for a hot minute, then slam on the brakes and do something else, and keep doing that, and it’s actually the correct course of action. HOW TO MEASURE THE ACCURACY OF FORECASTS How do you hold forecasters accountable, when the forecast is only a probability? The answer appears tricky, then simple, then tricky again, then ends up being simple enough to answer it with Google Spreadsheets. It's a journey worth taking, because building better forecasts is invaluable for businesses: Take lead scoring — puttinga value on
HOW DO YOU TELL A NON-TECHNICAL PERSON THAT THEY CAN’T Frustrated Engineer writes: I've been writing code for ten years, recently promoted to a position where I have to talk to our non-technical customers. They want to use our software or customize things in ways that are technically impossible, but I don't know how to communicate this to them. They don't even know how little BRITTLENESS COMES FROM “ONE THING” Brittleness comes from “One Thing”. Jason · Nov 7, 2017 · 4 Comments. Tweet. Tweet this. We’re tired of hearing how small software companies usually fail. The data show that the two most common causes are: (1) Product isn’t useful to enough people, and (2) Problems with the team. But what about the companies that die eventhough they
WHY IT’S NICE TO COMPETE AGAINST A LARGE, PROFITABLE COMPANY A big, profitable company seems like the hardest thing for a small company to compete against. They have everything: money, brand, momentum, existing customers, press, product teams, distribution channels, expertise, market insight, analysts, sales offices, product features, and, by definition, a working business model. All the little startup has is a decent idea and extremely SATISFICING VS MAXIMIZING "Maximizing" means expending time and effort to ensure you've solved something as best as possible. It typically needs lots of exploration and analysis to ensure "the best" option hasn't been overlooked, and that we have confidence in our evaluation of all options. "Satisficing" means picking the first option that satisfies some givencriteria.
THE UNPROFITABLE SAAS BUSINESS MODEL TRAP The unprofitable SaaS business model trap. Marketo filed for IPO with impressive 80% year-over-year growth in 2012, with almost $60m in revenue. Except, they lost $35m. WTF? It’s not impressive when you spend $1.60 for every $1.00 of revenue, force AVOIDING THE TRAP OF LOW-KNOWLEDGE, HIGH-CONFIDENCE THEORIES Avoiding the trap of low-knowledge, high-confidence theories. We’ve all laughed at detailed renderings of constellations overlaying a paltry set of stars that are in fact quasi-random. Like Fornax, which is just three stars: But which humans have no trouble rendering as an intricate sequence of machinery: It would be funny, if this naturalCOLOR WHEELS
If you stand close to a CRT (non-flat-screen), you can see that every pixel (or “dot”) is really three tightly-packed colored phosphors: red, green, and blue. If you’ve done computer graphics you’ve been forced to name colors using these “RGB color values;” true geeks automatically think “yellow” when they see #FFFF00.@ASMARTBEAR
When “fits and starts” is the most efficient path. September 19, 2018 By Jason 4 Comments. When you go full-speed in one direction for a hot minute, then slam on the brakes and do something else, and keep doing that, and it’s actually the correct course of action. FINDING THE RIGHT ADVICE Finding the right advice. One thing we’ve learned from the diet crazes since the 1980s is that every single thing has been alternately touted as healthy or poison. No-fat, carb-heavy. Scratch that, no-carb, fat doesn’t matter. Scratch that, it’s only about low HOW TO MEASURE THE ACCURACY OF FORECASTS How do you hold forecasters accountable, when the forecast is only a probability? The answer appears tricky, then simple, then tricky again, then ends up being simple enough to answer it with Google Spreadsheets. It's a journey worth taking, because building better forecasts is invaluable for businesses: Take lead scoring — puttinga value on
SATISFICING VS MAXIMIZING "Maximizing" means expending time and effort to ensure you've solved something as best as possible. It typically needs lots of exploration and analysis to ensure "the best" option hasn't been overlooked, and that we have confidence in our evaluation of all options. "Satisficing" means picking the first option that satisfies some givencriteria.
HOW TO SIMPLIFY COMPLEX DECISIONS BY CLEAVING THE FACTS Businesses of all sizes face complex decisions for which there is no one, correct answer, and yet a strong and often permanent decision has to be made. Sometimes this is due to fundamental uncertainty inherent in the decision, e.g. not knowing how the market will evolve, what competitors are secretly investing in, whether new marketing STARTUP COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES THAT WORK The elements of our Dream Team were obvious from the start: Varied skillsets. One experienced startup/business/salesman (Gerry), one proven software developer (me), one proven hardware developer (Michael). Common vision. We agreed what the product ought to be and that the ultimate goal of the company was to sell it.COLOR WHEELS
If you stand close to a CRT (non-flat-screen), you can see that every pixel (or “dot”) is really three tightly-packed colored phosphors: red, green, and blue. If you’ve done computer graphics you’ve been forced to name colors using these “RGB color values;” true geeks automatically think “yellow” when they see #FFFF00. THE FUNDAMENTAL LESSON OF THE FORCES GOVERNING SCALING The fundamental lesson of the forces governing scaling startups. Idealistic founders believe they will break the mold when they scale, and not turn into a “typical big company.”. By which they mean: Without stupid rules that assume employees are dumb or evil, without everything taking ten times longer than it should, withoutwall-to-wall
WHAT’S THE IMPORTANT THING, THAT IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO Successful products deliver on something so fantastic, so game-changing, so important to the customer, that it is sufficient to override the overwhelming deficiencies of the rest of the product and company. So great that people tell their friends or force theircolleagues to
REFRAMING THE PROBLEMS WITH “FREEMIUM” BY CHARGING THE Reframing the problems with “Freemium” by charging the marketing department. Seems like every third startup nowadays is using the “Freemium” business model: The lowest service tier is free, and the business is designed to get those users hooked and then upgrade to a paid plan. It can work wonderfully of course, but usually it crushes * Skip to primary navigation* Skip to content
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WHAT’S THE IMPORTANT THING, THAT IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO OVERRIDE ALLYOUR DEFICIENCIES?
November 4, 2019 By Jason Do you feel the crushing weight of the disadvantages facing every new company? No brand, no features, no customers, no money, no distribution, no search engine rankings, no efficient advertising, no incredible executive team, no NPS, no strategy. How do the successful startups rise above all that? Do they solve all those problems at once, or at least quickly? No. I apologize in advance for using the dang iPhone as an example but... The … Read More about What’s The Important Thing, that is powerful enough to override all your deficiencies? CAPTURING LUCK WITH “OR” INSTEAD OF “AND” October 8, 2019 By Jason There’s always a lot of luck in startups, but there’s ways to better capture upside, and better mitigate downside.KUNG FU
February 26, 2019 By Jason A summary of nearly everything I think about building companies. WHEN “FITS AND STARTS” IS THE MOST EFFICIENT PATH September 19, 2018 By Jason When you go full-speed in one direction for a hot minute, then slam on the brakes and do something else, and keep doing that, and it’s actually the correct course of action. A SCORECARD: SHOULD A DECISION BE FAST, OR SLOW? September 5, 2018 By Jason We’re constantly told to make decisions quickly, because that speeds up the production and learning loop. But some decisions really should be made slowly. How do you know which way to go, with a given decision? Here’s a framework to answer that question. HOW REPOSITIONING A PRODUCT ALLOWS YOU TO 8X ITS PRICE June 5, 2018 By Jason Pricing is often more about positioning and perceived value than it is about cost-analysis and ROI calculators that no one believes. As a result, positioning can allow you to charge many times more than you think you can. Here’s how. WP ENGINE PASSES $100M IN REVENUE AND SECURES $250M INVESTMENT FROMSILVER LAKE
January 4, 2018 By Jason WP Engine just announced passing $100M in annual recurring revenue and a $250M investment from Silver Lake. We’ve never been in a strongerposition!
BRITTLENESS COMES FROM “ONE THING” November 7, 2017 By Jason We’re tired of hearing how small software companies usually fails. The data show that the two most common causes are (1) the product just isn’t useful to enough people and (2) problems with the team. But what about the cohort that dies even though it did sell some copies of software to a few people, and where the founding team isn’t dysfunctional? I don’t have data for that cohort (tell me if you do!), but informally I see things like the following, which is useful to list because there’s a pattern common to each of them, which furthermore is possible to counteract YOU CAN HAVE TWO BIG THINGS, BUT NOT THREE October 17, 2017 By Jason No you can’t “have it all.” You can have two things, but notthree.
THE FUNDAMENTAL LESSON OF THE FORCES GOVERNING SCALING STARTUPS October 4, 2017 By Jason Idealistic founders believe they will break the mold when they scale, and not turn into a “typical big company.” By which they mean: Without stupid rules that assume employees are dumb or evil, without everything taking ten times longer than it should, without wall-to-wall meetings, without resorting to hiring anything less than the top 1% of the talent pool, and so on. Why do they never succeed? What are the fundamental forces that transform organizations at scale? STRATEGIC ACTIVITIES FOR A COMPANY RETREAT September 25, 2017 By Jason I happened to be sitting on the tarmac, delayed, when a tweet came in asking for some ideas for what to do on a company retreat that wouldbe strategic.
In the confines of six square feet of personal space, I sent a fewanswers.
These are useful exercises any time!* Page 1
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