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by fiscal stimulus.
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Inflation breakevens have been rising and real yields have been falling this year, boosting gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful in keeping assetmarkets
TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over After a wobbly start to fighting the Covid crisis – epitomised by the much-derided Track and Tracesystem
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slackUSER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE Variant Perception has created a framework of tools that signal the beginning and end of speculative manias, such as a stock market bubble LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. HOW INFLATION SWINDLES THE EQUITY INVESTOR Following on from our post last week about the concept of equity duration, it’s a great time to revisit Warren Buffett’s evergreen piece on inflation vs equities. The chart below shows in nominal terms the S&P 500 did okay through the 1970s, but investors lost heavily in real terms. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION Mar 25 – Today’s guest is Tian Yang, Head of Research at Variant Perception – an independent research company on financial markets. Against the backdrop of global financial market sell-off triggered by Covid-19, we analysed the market reactions by segmenting genuine causes of concern vs panic reaction; we discussed lessons learnt from historical black swan events and how these lessons BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbochargedby fiscal stimulus.
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Inflation breakevens have been rising and real yields have been falling this year, boosting gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful in keeping assetmarkets
TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over After a wobbly start to fighting the Covid crisis – epitomised by the much-derided Track and Tracesystem
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slackUSER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
THE ANATOMY OF A BUBBLE Variant Perception has created a framework of tools that signal the beginning and end of speculative manias, such as a stock market bubble HOW INFLATION SWINDLES THE EQUITY INVESTOR Following on from our post last week about the concept of equity duration, it’s a great time to revisit Warren Buffett’s evergreen piece on inflation vs equities. The chart below shows in nominal terms the S&P 500 did okay through the 1970s, but investors lost heavily in real terms. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION Mar 25 – Today’s guest is Tian Yang, Head of Research at Variant Perception – an independent research company on financial markets. Against the backdrop of global financial market sell-off triggered by Covid-19, we analysed the market reactions by segmenting genuine causes of concern vs panic reaction; we discussed lessons learnt from historical black swan events and how these lessons SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market Labour costs and rising wages are becoming WHAT’S WITH THE NAME VARIANT PERCEPTION? Variant perception is the effort to become sufficiently knowledgeable about whatever the subject is, that at a time to be at variance from consensus, because one of the few sure ways to make money in the market is to have a view that is off consensus and have that view turned out to be rightThat’s not enough you have to be right. A contrarian is a plus, but it’s not enough. RECESSIONS AND SHOCKS The coronavirus pandemic is a highly unusual circumstance, and in several ways we are in uncharted waters. Two weeks ago we published a thematic report titled Recessions and Shocks In which we applied our tools, our signals and our outsider approach to:. distinguish between recessions and novel exogenous shocksSTEEPER AND CHEAPER
While further gains will be harder from here, indicators continue to point to a supportive backdrop for yields and the yield curve, with the latter historically tending to steepen through US elections In our October monthly report (The Case for Banks – October 8th 2020) we discussed how even though the move to higher yieldsCRISIS MANAGEMENT
In the depths of the pandemic and market volatility in April 2020, we released a report for clients recommending screens of stocks that we thought would outperform even if the market had not continued rallying off the March lows. One year on, we review our recommendations, which have outperformed global indices. THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities.USER ACCOUNT
No jargon or fluff, just actionable recommendations and spot-oninsights
LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market. HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROM The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market. HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROM The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. THE IMPORTANCE OF EQUITY DURATION We have seen much commentary that if US 10y yields go back to 2.5% or 3.0%, then equity markets suffer. We prefer a different way to looking at the problem. The key is what inflation is doing alongside any move in nominal yields. The below chart shows the % of the US yield curvetrading
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
US OVERHEATING RISK
The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbocharged by fiscal stimulus. Overheating risks are rising The US has seen a pronounced uptick in economic momentum in the lastUSER ACCOUNT
Leading investment analysis. We provide actionable investment advice for institutional managers, hedge funds and familyREFLATION SENSATION
Bloomberg and Google news trends show reflation headlines are everywhere. Widespread coverage is typically a sign that trends are starting to exhaust and that markets are due for a period of consolidation, before the next leg higher Our growth and liquidity LEIs remain very positive. While we don’t want to be contrarian for contrarian’s sake, BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION The Next Commodity Supercycle. There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: (1) The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s, (2) Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation, (3) Commodities are STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Chart source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception. Bear markets have historically lasted 18 months on average, enduring an average 42% peak-to-trough decline. The 2020 bear market lasted 33 days with a max drawdown of 34%. The extraordinary action of central banks across the world made this the shortest bear market ever and helped all HEADWINDS FOR HOUSING AND AUTOS Earlier this year we wrote a Thematic piece on autos arguing that we would see auto companies cut prices to move inventory, idle plants and produce fewer cars. We have already seen a slowdown in car sales, and some manufacturers have guided to lower production this year. This is in line with our view. Currently, LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market. THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROM The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market. THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROM The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. THE IMPORTANCE OF EQUITY DURATION We have seen much commentary that if US 10y yields go back to 2.5% or 3.0%, then equity markets suffer. We prefer a different way to looking at the problem. The key is what inflation is doing alongside any move in nominal yields. The below chart shows the % of the US yield curvetrading
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
US OVERHEATING RISK
The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbocharged by fiscal stimulus. Overheating risks are rising The US has seen a pronounced uptick in economic momentum in the lastUSER ACCOUNT
Leading investment analysis. We provide actionable investment advice for institutional managers, hedge funds and familyREFLATION SENSATION
Bloomberg and Google news trends show reflation headlines are everywhere. Widespread coverage is typically a sign that trends are starting to exhaust and that markets are due for a period of consolidation, before the next leg higher Our growth and liquidity LEIs remain very positive. While we don’t want to be contrarian for contrarian’s sake, BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION The Next Commodity Supercycle. There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: (1) The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s, (2) Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation, (3) Commodities are STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Chart source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception. Bear markets have historically lasted 18 months on average, enduring an average 42% peak-to-trough decline. The 2020 bear market lasted 33 days with a max drawdown of 34%. The extraordinary action of central banks across the world made this the shortest bear market ever and helped all HEADWINDS FOR HOUSING AND AUTOS Earlier this year we wrote a Thematic piece on autos arguing that we would see auto companies cut prices to move inventory, idle plants and produce fewer cars. We have already seen a slowdown in car sales, and some manufacturers have guided to lower production this year. This is in line with our view. Currently, LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market. HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROM The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. LEADING INVESTMENT RESEARCH About VP. Our philosophy is “data-driven, actionable, repeatable”. We use a framework of leading economic and liquidity indicators to identify investment opportunities across asset classes. Our research team all have practical money management experience. We know clients want concise, investable insights, not textbooks. BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery. Apr 9, 2021 | US Economy. The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. TOO EARLY FOR A NEW DAWN IN THE UK Too Early for a New Dawn in the UK. The UK’s successful vaccination programme has fuelled speculation of a rapid recovery. However, barriers to post- Brexit trade and a slow easing of lockdown restrictions pose serious risks. It is premature to suggest UK underperfomance is over. After a wobbly start to fighting the Covidcrisis
WAGE PRESSURES BUILDING Wage Pressures Building. Our US leading indicators point to higher wage growth as employers pay up for better quality labour in the wake of the pandemic. A nascent rise in trade-union density suggests the wind is changing and that we may see more structural inflation risks coming from the labour market. HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s. Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commodities are generationally cheap, both comparedto
TRACKING THE US'S LABOUR MARKET RECOVERY The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the recovery, the US labour market already has pockets of tightness and the huge amount of slack THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE: DOWNLOAD REPORT We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. Commodities are one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities. DownloadReport!
THE ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS OF 1997: WHAT YOU CAN LEARN FROM The Asian Boom: The Asian currency crisis was an example of a classic emerging market bubble. Funds cascaded into the emerging “Tiger” economies after the bubble burst in Japan in the late 1980s. The new inflows pushed up the value of Asian currencies or, if they were pegged, it forced them to accumulate FX reserves. SERVICES - VARIANT PERCEPTION Thematic. Hunting for the next big idea, based on data and qualitative deep drive. We’ve covered Shale, Biotech, Commodity Supercycle, SPACs, China, Euro Breakup and many others before they played out. MEDIA - VARIANT PERCEPTION MEDIA. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of “fiscal dominance” where huge budget deficitsinvite
THE IMPORTANCE OF EQUITY DURATION We have seen much commentary that if US 10y yields go back to 2.5% or 3.0%, then equity markets suffer. We prefer a different way to looking at the problem. The key is what inflation is doing alongside any move in nominal yields. The below chart shows the % of the US yield curvetrading
HOW TO IDENTIFY MARKET BOTTOMS This is an excerpt from our “Understanding Market Bottoms” report from April, 2020. Please contact sales@variantperception.com if you are interested in the full report and to gain more understanding in how we will identify when the current market has put in a bottom.. Key to note about market bottoms is that they can only be recognised inretrospect.
US OVERHEATING RISK
The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbocharged by fiscal stimulus. Overheating risks are rising The US has seen a pronounced uptick in economic momentum in the lastUSER ACCOUNT
Leading investment analysis. We provide actionable investment advice for institutional managers, hedge funds and familyREFLATION SENSATION
Bloomberg and Google news trends show reflation headlines are everywhere. Widespread coverage is typically a sign that trends are starting to exhaust and that markets are due for a period of consolidation, before the next leg higher Our growth and liquidity LEIs remain very positive. While we don’t want to be contrarian for contrarian’s sake, BLOG - VARIANT PERCEPTION The Next Commodity Supercycle. There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: (1) The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen since the 1960s, (2) Investors are deeply underweight and will need real assets such as commodities as a hedge against inflation, (3) Commodities are STRUCTURAL INFLATION BACK DROP ==> BUY DIPS IN GOLD Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold. and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained. traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level since early June. Fed policy has been very successful. in keeping asset markets supported, with the S&P nowflirting with a
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Chart source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Variant Perception. Bear markets have historically lasted 18 months on average, enduring an average 42% peak-to-trough decline. The 2020 bear market lasted 33 days with a max drawdown of 34%. The extraordinary action of central banks across the world made this the shortest bear market ever and helped all info@variantperception.com* RSS
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